Seedling dynamics at elevation limits: Complex interactions beyond seed and microsite limitations

Seasonal controlling factors of CO2 exchange in a semiarid shrubland in the Chihuahuan Desert, Mexico

The still significant uncertainties associated with the future capacity of terrestrial systems to mitigate climate change are linked to the lack of knowledge of the biotic and abiotic processes that regulate CO₂ net ecosystem exchange (NEE) in space/time. Mainly, rates and controls of CO₂ exchange from arid ecosystems, despite dominating the global trends in interannual variability of the terrestrial CO₂ sink capacity, are probably the most poorly understood of all. We present a study on rates and controls of CO₂ exchange measured with the eddy covariance (EC) technique in the Chihuahuan Desert in the Northeast of Mexico, to understand how the environmental controls of the NEE switch throughout the year using a multilevel approach. Since this is a water-limited ecosystem, the hydroecological year, based on the last precipitation and the decay of air temperature, was used to compare the wet (from May 16 to October 30, 2019) and dry (November 1, 2019 to May 15, 2020) seasons' controlling mechanisms, both at diurnal and nocturnal times. Annual NEE was -303.5 g C m^-2, with a cumulative R_eco of 537.7 g C m^-2 and GPP of 841.3 g C m^-2. NEE showed radiation, temperature, and soil moisture sensitivity along the day, however, shifts in these controls along the year and between seasons were identified. The winter precipitations during the dry season led to fast C release followed by lagged C uptake. Despite this flux pulse, the ecosystem was a net sink throughout most of the year because the local vegetation is well adapted to grow and uptake C under these arid conditions, even during the dry season. Understanding the controls of the sink-source shifts is relevant since the predictions for future climate include changes in the precipitation patterns.

North American tree migration paced by climate in the West, lagging in the East

Suitable habitats for forest trees may be shifting fast with recent climate change. Studies tracking the shift in suitable habitat for forests have been inconclusive, in part because responses in tree fecundity and seedling establishment can diverge. Analysis of both components at a continental scale reveals a poleward migration of northern species that is in progress now. Recruitment and fecundity both contribute to poleward spread in the West, while fecundity limits spread in the East, despite a fecundity hotspot in the Southeast. Fecundity limitation on population spread can confront conservation and management efforts with persistent disequilibrium between forest diversity and rapid climate change.

Tree fecundity and recruitment have not yet been quantified at scales needed to anticipate biogeographic shifts in response to climate change. By separating their responses, this study shows coherence across species and communities, offering the strongest support to date that migration is in progress with regional limitations on rates. The southeastern continent emerges as a fecundity hotspot, but it is situated south of population centers where high seed production could contribute to poleward population spread. By contrast, seedling success is highest in the West and North, serving to partially offset limited seed production near poleward frontiers. The evidence of fecundity and recruitment control on tree migration can inform conservation planning for the expected long-term disequilibrium between climate and forest distribution.

Niche Shifts From Trees to Fecundity to Recruitment That Determine Species Response to Climate Change

Anticipating the next generation of forests requires understanding of recruitment responses to habitat change. Tree distribution and abundance depend not only on climate, but also on habitat variables, such as soils and drainage, and on competition beneath a shaded canopy. Recent analyses show that North American tree species are migrating in response to climate change, which is exposing each population to novel climate-habitat interactions (CHI). Because CHI have not been estimated for either adult trees or regeneration (recruits per year per adult basal area), we cannot evaluate migration potential into the future. Using the Masting Inference and Forecasting (MASTIF) network of tree fecundity and new continent-wide observations of tree recruitment, we quantify impacts for redistribution across life stages from adults to fecundity to recruitment. We jointly modeled response of adult abundance and recruitment rate to climate/habitat conditions, combined with fecundity sensitivity, to evaluate if shifting CHI explain community reorganization. To compare climate effects with tree fecundity, which is estimated from trees and thus is "conditional" on tree presence, we demonstrate how to quantify this conditional status for regeneration. We found that fecundity was regulated by temperature to a greater degree than other stages, yet exhibited limited responses to moisture deficit. Recruitment rate expressed strong sensitivities to CHI, more like adults than fecundity, but still with substantial differences. Communities reorganized from adults to fecundity, but there was a re-coalescence of groups as seedling recruitment partially reverted to community structure similar to that of adults. Results provide the first estimates of continent-wide community sensitivity and their implications for reorganization across three life-history stages under climate change.

How does climate change affect regeneration of Mediterranean high-mountain plants? An integration and synthesis of current knowledge

Mediterranean mountains are extraordinarily diverse and hold a high proportion of endemic plants, but they are particularly vulnerable to climate change, and most species distribution models project drastic changes in community composition. Retrospective studies and long-term monitoring also highlight that Mediterranean high-mountain plants are suffering severe range contractions. The aim of this work is to review the current knowledge of climate change impacts on the process of plant regeneration by seed in Mediterranean high-mountain plants, by combining available information from observational and experimental studies. We also discuss some processes that may provide resilience against changing environmental conditions and suggest some research priorities for the future. With some exceptions, there is still little evidence of the direct effects of climate change on pollination and reproductive success of Mediterranean high-mountain plants, and most works are observational and/or centred only in the post-dispersal stages (germination and establishment). The great majority of studies agree that the characteristic summer drought and the extreme heatwaves, which are projected to be more intense in the future, are the most limiting factors for the regeneration process. However, there is an urgent need for studies combining elevational gradient approaches with experimental manipulations of temperature and drought to confirm the magnitude and variability of species' responses. There is also limited knowledge about the ability of Mediterranean high-mountain plants to cope with climate change through phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation processes. This could be achieved by performing common garden and reciprocal translocation experiments with species differing in life history traits.

Assessing intraspecific variation in effective dispersal along an altitudinal gradient: a test in two Mediterranean high-mountain plants

BACKGROUND

Plant recruitment depends among other factors on environmental conditions and their variation at different spatial scales. Characterizing dispersal in contrasting environments may thus be necessary to understand natural intraspecific variation in the processes underlying recruitment. Silene ciliata and Armeria caespitosa are two representative species of cryophilic pastures above the tree line in Mediterranean high mountains. No explicit estimations of dispersal kernels have been made so far for these or other high-mountain plants. Such data could help to predict their dispersal and recruitment patterns in a context of changing environments under ongoing global warming.

METHODS

We used an inverse modelling approach to analyse effective seed dispersal patterns in five populations of both Silene ciliata and Armeria caespitosa along an altitudinal gradient in Sierra de Guadarrama (Madrid, Spain). We considered four commonly employed two-dimensional seedling dispersal kernels exponential-power, 2Dt, WALD and log-normal.

KEY RESULTS

No single kernel function provided the best fit across all populations, although estimated mean dispersal distances were short (<1 m) in all cases. S. ciliata did not exhibit significant among-population variation in mean dispersal distance, whereas significant differences in mean dispersal distance were found in A. caespitosa. Both S. ciliata and A. caespitosa exhibited among-population variation in the fecundity parameter and lacked significant variation in kernel shape.

CONCLUSIONS

This study illustrates the complexity of intraspecific variation in the processes underlying recruitment, showing that effective dispersal kernels can remain relatively invariant across populations within particular species, even if there are strong variations in demographic structure and/or physical environment among populations, while the invariant dispersal assumption may not hold for other species in the same environment. Our results call for a case-by-case analysis in a wider range of plant taxa and environments to assess the prevalence and magnitude of intraspecific dispersal variation.