[Epidemic profile of mumps in China during 2004-2013]

Mumps serological surveillance following 10 years of a one-dose mumps-containing-vaccine policy in Fujian Province, China

BACKGROUND

Since 2008, Fujian province provided measles-rubella (MR) vaccine at 8 months followed by measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine at 18 months a one-dose mumps-containing-vaccine (MuCV) schedule. Several mumps outbreaks have occurred recently in Fujian. Serological surveillance can assess population immunity to mumps and identify risk factors for mumps.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional serosurvey of mumps IgG antibodies in the general population of Fujian Province in 2018 and compare results with a similar study conducted in 2009, when the routine schedule had no MuCV. We analyzed changes in mumps epidemiology after implementation of a one-dose MuCV vaccination strategy.

RESULTS

Mumps seroprevalence was 78.6% (95% CI: 77.4-79.8), and the geometric mean concentration (GMC) of mumps antibodies was 245.8 IU/ml (95% CI:237.3-255.1). MuCV vaccination at 18 months resulted in increased seroprevalence and GMCs. Seroprevalence and GMCs varied by age, gender, and number of doses received. Except for children under 18 months, seroprevalence and GMCs were lowest among 10-15-year-olds. Each year after introduction of the one-dose MuCV vaccination policy, the highest incidence of mumps was among 4-6-year-olds and 9-15-year-olds, gradually shifting to older age groups.

CONCLUSION

A one-dose mumps-containing vaccine schedule does not provide sustained and stable mumps immunity in Fujian. To reduce the risk of mumps, we recommend supplementary vaccination of children without a history of receiving at least one MuCV dose or who are seronegative at 10-15 years of age.

Age-specific transmission dynamic of mumps: A long-term large-scale modeling study in Jilin Province, China

Objectives

Despite the adoption of a new childhood immunization program in China, the incidence of mumps remains high. This study aimed to describe the epidemiological characteristics of mumps in Jilin Province from 2005 to 2019 and to assess the transmissibility of mumps virus among the whole population and different subgroups by regions and age groups.

Methods

The Non-age-specific and age-specific Susceptible-Exposed-Pre-symptomatic-Infectious-Asymptomatic-Recovered (SEPIAR) models were fitted to actual mumps incidence data. The time-varying reproduction number (R _t ) was used to evaluate and compare the transmissibility.

Results

From 2005 to 2019, a total of 57,424 cases of mumps were reported in Jilin Province. The incidence of mumps was the highest in people aged 5 to 9 years (77.37 per 100,000). The two SEPIAR models fitted the reported data well (P < 0.01). The median transmissibility (R _t ) calculated by the two SEPIAR models were 1.096 (range: 1.911 × 10^-5-2.192) and 1.074 (range: 0.033-2.114) respectively. The age-specific SEPIAR model was more representative of the actual epidemic of mumps in Jilin Province from 2005-2019.

Conclusions

For mumps control, it is recommended that mumps-containing vaccines (MuCV) coverage be increased nationwide in the 5-9 years age group, either by a mumps vaccine alone or by a combination of vaccines such as measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine. The coverage of vaccines in Jilin Province should be continuously expanded to establish solid immunity in the population. China needs to redefine the optimal time interval for MuCV immunization.

Meta-analysis of the effects of ambient temperature and relative humidity on the risk of mumps

Many studies have shown that the relationship between ambient temperature, relative humidity and mumps has been highlighted. However, these studies showed inconsistent results. Therefore, the goal of our study is to conduct a meta-analysis to clarify this relationship and to quantify the size of these effects as well as the potential factors. Systematic literature researches on PubMed, Embase.com, Web of Science Core Collection, Cochrane library, Chinese BioMedical Literature Database (CBM) and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) were performed up to February 7, 2022 for articles analyzing the relationships between ambient temperature, relative humidity and incidence of mumps. Eligibility assessment and data extraction were conducted independently by two researchers, and meta-analysis was performed to synthesize these data. We also assessed sources of heterogeneity by study region, regional climate, study population. Finally, a total of 14 studies were screened out from 1154 records and identified to estimate the relationship between ambient temperature, relative humidity and incidence of mumps. It was found that per 1 °C increase and decrease in the ambient temperature were significantly associated with increased incidence of mumps with RR of 1.0191 (95% CI: 1.0129–1.0252, I² = 92.0%, Egger’s test P = 0.001, N = 13) for per 1 °C increase and 1.0244 (95% CI: 1.0130–1.0359, I² = 86.6%, Egger’s test P = 0.077, N = 9) for per 1 °C decrease. As to relative humidity, only high effect of relative humidity was slightly significant (for per 1 unit increase with RR of 1.0088 (95% CI: 1.0027–1.0150), I² = 72.6%, Egger’s test P = 0.159, N = 9). Subgroup analysis showed that regional climate with temperate areas may have a higher risk of incidence of mumps than areas with subtropical climate in cold effect of ambient temperature and low effect of relative humidity. In addition, meta-regression analysis showed that regional climate may affect the association between incidence of mumps and cold effect of ambient temperature. Our results suggest ambient temperature could affect the incidence of mumps significantly, of which both hot and cold effect of ambient temperature may increase the incidence of mumps. Further studies are still needed to clarify the relationship between the incidence of mumps and ambient temperature outside of east Asia, and many other meteorological factors. These results of ambient temperature are important for establishing preventive measures on mumps, especially in temperate areas. The policy-makers should pay more attention to ambient temperature changes and take protective measures in advance.

Estimating the Transmissibility of Mumps: A Modelling Study in Wuhan City, China

Despite the adoption of a national immunization program in China, the incidence of mumps remains high. This study aimed to describe the epidemiological characteristics, including the time, region, occupation, and age, of mumps in Wuhan from 2005 to 2018 and to evaluate its transmissibility. In this study, the susceptible-exposed-infectious-asymptomatic-recovered (SEIAR) model fitted the actual incidence data of mumps. The effective reproduction number (R t ) was used to evaluate and compare the transmission capacity in different areas. From 2005 to 2018, there were 36,415 cases. The incidence of mumps was highest among people aged 5-10 years (460.02 per 100,000). The SEIAR model fitted the reported mumps data well (P < 0.01). The median transmissibility (R t ) was 1.04 (range = 0-2.50). There were two peak spreads every year (from March to May and from October to December). The R t peak always appeared in the first 2 months of the peak incidence rate. The peak time of the epidemic spread of mumps was 1-2 months earlier than the peak incidence rate. The prevention and control measures of vaccination for children aged 5-10 years should be taken before the peak transmission capacity each year, 2 months before the peak of the outbreak, to reduce the spread of mumps.

Forecasting the incidence of mumps in Chongqing based on a SARIMA model

BACKGROUND

Mumps is classified as a class C infection disease in China, and the Chongqing area has one of the highest incidence rates in the country. We aimed to establish a prediction model for mumps in Chongqing and analyze its seasonality, which is important for risk analysis and allocation of resources in the health sector.

METHODS

Data on incidence of mumps from January 2004 to December 2018 were obtained from Chongqing Municipal Bureau of Disease Control and Prevention. The incidence of mumps from 2004 to 2017 was fitted using a seasonal autoregressive comprehensive moving average (SARIMA) model. The root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used to compare the goodness of fit of the models. The 2018 incidence data were used for validation.

RESULTS

From 2004 to 2018, a total of 159,181 cases (93,655 males and 65,526 females) of mumps were reported in Chongqing, with significantly more men than women. The age group of 0-19 years old accounted for 92.41% of all reported cases, and students made up the largest proportion (62.83%), followed by scattered children and children in kindergarten. The SARIMA(2, 1, 1) × (0, 1, 1)12 was the best fit model, RMSE and MAPE were 0.9950 and 39.8396%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Based on the study findings, the incidence of mumps in Chongqing has an obvious seasonal trend, and SARIMA(2, 1, 1) × (0, 1, 1)12 model can also predict the incidence of mumps well. The SARIMA model of time series analysis is a feasible and simple method for predicting mumps in Chongqing.

High risk of mumps infection in children who received one dose of mumps-containing vaccine: waning immunity to mumps in children aged 2-5 years from kindergartens in Jiangsu Province, China

BACKGROUND

During the period of immunization with a single-dose measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine, which has been available since 2008in China, the incidence of mumps in children aged 2-5 years has been high. The aim of this study was to determine the immunity profile of mumps in children aged 2-5 years as part of the assessment of the MMR vaccination strategy.

METHODS

A cross-sectional survey of IgG antibodies against mumps virus in children aged 2-5 years was performed. Analysis by enzyme-linked immune sorbent assay(ELISA)was performed to measure IgG antibodies against mumps virus in the sera of 2-to5-year-old children who had been vaccinated with at least one dose of MMR vaccine.

RESULTS

Mumps outbreaks mainly occurred in kindergarten and primary schools and primarily involved children in kindergarten from 2015-2016 in Jiangsu Province. In total, 4,033 children were surveyed. The overall seroprevalence of mumps antibodies was 79.0% (95% CI:78.4-79.6), and the geometric mean concentration (GMC) was 323.6 mIU/ml (309.0-338.8). Both univariate and multivariate survival analysis of seroprevalence showed that several factors contributed to having significant seroprevalence among the 2-to-5-year-old group (P < .05). The seroprevalence of children with a single-dose MMR vaccine regimen (78.4%, 95% CI: 77.8-80.4) was significantly lower than that of children with a two-dose MMR vaccine regimen (96.5%, 95% CI: 88.6%-96.1%). The seroprevalence rate was negatively correlated with time since inoculation (P < .01).

CONCLUSION

Children who received a single dose of MMR vaccine in kindergarten, particularly the 2-year-old group in the northern region of Jiangsu Province, China, are at high risk of mumps infection. Our study demonstrates thata single-dose MMR vaccine regimen has a limited effect on controlling mumps, which highlights the benefit of introducing a two-dose MMR vaccine schedule.

Patient Delay in Hospital Visiting and the Weekend Effect of Surveillance Report on Hand-Foot-and-Mouth Disease and Epidemic Parotitis in Hanzhong City, China

Background

We aimed at investigating the prevalence and associated factors of patient delay in hospital visiting and weekend effect of disease surveillance on hand-foot-and-mouth disease and epidemic parotitis/mumps.

Methods

Daily report data on hand-foot-and-mouth disease and epidemic parotitis cases between January 1, 2014, and December 31, 2017, in Hanzhong, Shaanxi, China, were collected. The patient delay in hospital visiting was defined by the date difference between disease onset and patient's visit to hospital. Differences of delayed durations and percentages were compared by using nonparametric or χ² tests across gender, age, occupation, disease classification, epidemic and nonepidemic seasons, and years of disease onset. Additionally, to determine whether there existed a weekend effect of disease surveillance, the mean cases reported on weekdays and weekends were also compared.

Results

A total of 14,814 patients with hand-foot-and-mouth disease and 4013 with epidemic parotitis were recorded, respectively. We found that 43.1% of the hand-foot-and-mouth disease and 36.5% of the epidemic parotitis patients had delayed visiting to hospital. All patients were reported through the online surveillance system on the day of visiting hospital. The percentage of delayed visiting to hospital differed significantly by years and epidemic and nonepidemic seasons and between children in and not in childcare center (all p values <0.05). In addition, the reported numbers of both diseases fluctuated on weekdays but obviously decreased on weekends regardless of the epidemic or nonepidemic seasons.

Conclusions

The reported cases of HFMD and epidemic parotitis had an obvious weekend effect, with an increasing tendency of cases delaying in hospital visiting over the recent years in Hanzhong, China. Parents and caregivers rather than health systems should be primarily targeted for the prevention and control of infectious diseases and their local outbreaks such as community-based education on the second-dose vaccination of mumps and/or hand hygiene.

The role of meteorological factors on mumps incidence among children in Guangzhou, Southern China

Mumps, a common childhood disease, has a high incidence in Guangzhou city, China. It has been proven that mumps is influenced by seasonality. However, the role of meteorological factors among children is yet to be fully ascertained. This study explored the association between meteorological factors and the incidence of mumps among children in Guangzhou. Distributed lag nonlinear models were used to evaluate the correlation between meteorological factors and the incidence of mumps among children from 2014–2018. The nonlinear lag effects of some meteorological factors were detected. Mean temperature, atmospheric pressure, and relative humidity were positively correlated with mumps incidence, contrary to that of wind speed. Extreme effects of temperature, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and relative humidity on the incidence of mumps among children in Guangzhou were evaluated in a subgroup analysis according to gender and age. Our preliminary results offered fundamental information to better understand the epidemic trends of mumps among children to develop an early warning system, and strengthen the intervention and prevention of mumps.

Assessing the Changes of Mumps Characteristics with Different Vaccination Strategies Using Surveillance Data: Importance to Introduce the 2-Dose Schedule in Quzhou of China

Background

From 2005 to 2016, the prevention and control of mumps in China have undergone three stages of transition. These include the use of MuCV as a self-supported vaccine, the introduction of one-dose MMR to the Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI), and the administration of two-dose MuCV following supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) using MM. Here, using surveillance data, we assessed the epidemiology of mumps during the three stages.

Methods

Children in Quzhou of China born from 2005 to 2016 and registered in the Zhejiang Provincial Immunization Information System (ZJIIS) were included. We analyzed the epidemic data and calculated incidence and MuCV coverage via birth cohorts.

Results

The average incidence of mumps in 2005-2006, 2007-2010, and 2011-2016 was 51.57, 41.02, and 12.53 per 100,000 individuals, respectively. The highest incidence was in children aged 6-14 years from 2005-2016, of which the majority were school students (67.84%). Approximately 90% of the reported outbreaks occurred in school children (primary school/middle school). The seasonal characteristics of mumps were less obvious from 2011 to 2016. The coverage of one-dose MMR in the 2005 birth cohort was 71.38%. For the 2006-2010 birth cohort, the coverage of one-dose MuCV was 96.82% and the coverage of two-dose MuCV was 17.68%. The children born from 2011 to 2016 were only free vaccinated with MMR; the coverage of one-dose MuCV was 99.10%. The mumps incidence in the three birth cohorts significantly declined (X² = 805.90, P < 0.001 for trend). Except the children less than two years old, the mumps incidence for the children born from 2006 to 2010 was higher than that for the children born from 2011 to 2016.

Conclusion

The mumps incidence significantly declined following the introduction of one-dose MMR. The SIA using MM led to a rapid reduction of mumps cases. Therefore, we recommend a two-dose MuCV routine immunization schedule and improved vaccination coverage.

Outbreak of mumps in a student population with high vaccination coverage in China: time for two-dose vaccination

In 2016, an outbreak of mumps occurred in a primary school in China with a student population having high vaccination coverage. An unmatched case-control study was performed to identify risk factors contributing to this outbreak, and a retrospective cohort study was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of mumps-containing vaccine (MuCV). A total of 97 cases were identified during the outbreak, and the overall attack rate was 8.2%. Among students with confirmed vaccination status, 90% had received at least one dose of MuCV. Cases were more likely than non-cases to report taking the school bus during the epidemic period (adjusted OR = 2.3, 95% CI: 1.4-3.7). Vaccine effectiveness (VE) was higher for two-dose MuCV (76%, 95% CI:49â€"89%) than for one-dose MuCV (59%, 95% CI: 36â€"74%. The protection afforded by both one-dose and two-dose MuCV waned over time, from 82% among students vaccinated within 5 years to 41% among those vaccinated more than 10 years previously for one-dose VE, and from 90% to 25% over the same time period for two-dose VE. We found that outbreaks of mumps can occur in schools despite high coverage of one-dose MuCV vaccination. Although the VE of both two-dose and one-dose MuCV wanes over time, the overall VE for two-dose MuCV was superior than that of one-dose MuCV. Therefore, a two-dose MuCV schedule through routine services is likely needed in order to control mumps epidemics in China.

Analysis of Epidemiological Characteristics of Notifiable Diseases Reported in Children Aged 0⁻14 Years from 2008 to 2017 in Zhejiang Province, China

This study aims to learn the characteristics of morbidity and mortality of notifiable diseases reported in children aged 0⁻14 years in Zhejiang Province in 2008⁻2017. We collated data from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention in Zhejiang province between 1 January 2008 and 31 December 2017 of children aged 0⁻14 years. From 2008 to 2017, a total of 32 types and 1,994,740 cases of notifiable diseases were reported in children aged 0⁻14 years, including 266 deaths in Zhejiang Province. The annual average morbidity was 2502.87/100,000, and the annual average mortality was 0.33/100,000. Male morbidity was 2886.98/100,000, and female morbidity was 2072.16/100,000, with the male morbidity rate higher than the female morbidity rate (χ² = 54,033.12, p < 0.01). No Class A infectious diseases were reported. The morbidity of Class B infectious diseases showed a downward trend, but that of Class C infectious diseases showed an upward trend. There were 72,041 cases in 22 kinds of Class B infectious disease and 138 death cases, with a morbidity rate of 90.39/100,000, and a mortality rate of 0.17/100,000. There were 1,922,699 cases in 10 kinds of Class C infectious disease and 128 death cases, with a morbidity rate of 2412.47/100,000, and a mortality rate of 0.16/100,000. The main high-prevalence diseases included hand-foot-and-mouth disease (1430.38/100,000), other infectious diarrheal diseases (721.40/100,000), mumps (168.83/100,000), and influenza (47.40/100,000). We should focus on the prevention and control of hand-foot and mouth disease, other infectious diarrheal diseases, mumps and influenza in children aged 0⁻14 years in Zhejiang Province. It is recommended to strengthen epidemic surveillance and undertake early prevention and control measures in order to reduce the younger children incidence rate of infectious diseases. Immunization planning vaccines can help achieve a significant preventive decline of infectious diseases.

Seroprevalence and Determinants Associated with Mumps Antibodies after 20 Years of MMR Vaccination in Urban Area of Shanghai, China

A resurgence of the mumps epidemic in highly vaccinated populations has occurred in recent years in many countries. This study aimed to evaluate the seroprevalence to mumps in urban areas of Shanghai, where a measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccination had been implemented for 20 years. Mumps IgG antibodies were tested in 2662 residual sera from all ages in an urban area of Shanghai. A linear regression method was performed to assess the persistence of mumps antibodies after MMR vaccination. A logistic regression method was used to analyze the variables associated with seronegative sera. The overall age- and gender-adjusted seroprevalence of mumps antibodies reached 90% (95% CI: 90.0–90.2). The antibody concentration declined significantly in the first eight years after the second dose of MMR. The multivariate analysis identified that males, age groups, especially 17–19 years and no dose of vaccination, as well as one dose of vaccination, as factors associated with an increased risk of seronegative sera. A high seroprevalence to mumps has been achieved in the urban areas of Shanghai. A declining antibody level of mumps after the second dose of MMR may put a potential risk of recurrence of mumps. The two-dose MMR vaccine schedule is superior to one-dose schedule for mumps control.

Meteorological factors and the incidence of mumps in Fujian Province, China, 2005-2013: Non-linear effects

BACKGROUND

Mumps is still an important public health issue in the world with several recent outbreaks. The seasonable distribution of the disease suggested that meteorological factors may influence the incidence of mumps. The aim of this study was to explore the possible association between meteorological factors and the incidence of mumps, and to provide scientific evidence to relevant health authorities for the disease control and prevention.

METHODS

We obtained the data of mumps cases and daily meteorological factors in Fujian Province in Eastern China over the period of 2005-2013. Using distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) approach, we assessed the relationship between the meteorological factors and mumps incidence.

RESULTS

The effects of meteorological factors on the mumps incidence were all non-linear. Compared with the lowest risk values, the upper level of precipitation, atmospheric pressure and relative humidity could increase the risk of mumps, whereas the low level of wind velocity, temperature, diurnal temperature range and sunshine duration may also increase the risk. Moderate atmospheric pressure and low wind velocity had larger cumulative effects within 30lagdays and the relative risks were 10.02 (95%CI: 2.47-40.71) and 12.45 (95%CI: 1.40-110.78). For temperature, the cumulative effect within 30lagdays of minimum temperature was higher than that from maximum temperature in most populations. The cumulative effects of minimum temperature for males, children aged 10-14 and students were higher than those in other populations.

CONCLUSIONS

Meteorological factors, especially temperature and wind velocity, should be taken into consideration in the prevention and warning of possible mumps epidemic. Special attention should be paid to the vulnerable populations, such as teenagers and young adults.

Evolutionary analysis of mumps viruses of genotype F collected in mainland China in 2001-2015

Mumps incidence in mainland China remains at a high level. Genotype F has been the predominant genotype of mumps virus (MuV) in the last 20 years in mainland China. To better understand the genetic characteristics of MuV in China, the sequences of the Small Hydrophobic (SH), Hemagglutinin-Neuraminidase (HN) and Fusion (F) genes of MuVs of genotype F collected during 2001-2015 were determined. The evolutionary rates of the HN and F genes were similar (0.5 × 10-3 substitutions/site/year) whereas the SH gene evolutionary rate was three times faster. The most recent common ancestor of genotype F was traced back to 1980. Four lineages were identified within HN and F MuV sequences. A phylogeographic analysis indicated that the genotype F viruses originally spread from the Liaoning and Shandong provinces followed by a spread to the South and East of China. This study provides important genetic baseline data for the development of prevention and control measures of mumps.

Forecasting the Incidence of Mumps in Zibo City Based on a SARIMA Model

This study aimed to predict the incidence of mumps using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, and provide theoretical evidence for early warning prevention and control in Zibo City, Shandong Province, China. Monthly mumps data from Zibo City gathered between 2005 and 2013 were used as a training set to construct a SARIMA model, and the monthly mumps in 2014 were defined as a test set for the model. From 2005 to 2014, a total of 8722 cases of mumps were reported in Zibo City; the male-to-female ratio of cases was 1.85:1, the age group of 1-20 years old accounted for 94.05% of all reported cases, and students made up the largest proportion (65.89%). The main serious endemic areas of mumps were located in Huantai County, Linzi District, and Boshan District of Zibo City. There were two epidemic peaks from April to July and from October to January in next year. The fitted model SARIMA (0, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1)₁₂ was established (AIC = 157.528), which has high validity and reasonability. The SARIMA model fitted dynamic changes of mumps in Zibo City well. It can be used for short-term forecasting and early warning of mumps.

Mumps Epidemiology and Mumps Virus Genotypes Circulating in Mainland China during 2013-2015

With the implementation of mumps virus (MuV) vaccination in the expanded program on immunization (EPI) in mainland China since 2008, the incidence of mumps has decreased, and the natural epidemic pattern of mumps has slightly changed during 2013-2015. The two epidemic peaks (April-July and November-December) became less obvious than those observed from 2004 to 2012. Children and adolescents younger than 15, particularly in the five-to-nine-year-old age group, remain the target group and should be the focus of high-quality immunization activities in mainland China. However, it was also found that the incidence and reported cases of mumps decreased in each age group during 2013-2015, particularly in the five-to-nine-year-old and ten-to-fourteen-year-old age groups. The proportion of mumps cases among adults in some provinces also increased. Unlike the changes in the epidemiological characteristics of mumps affected by vaccination, the data of MuV virology surveillance indicated that most of the MuV transmission chains have not yet been effectively interrupted, and MuV remains a natural epidemic pattern in mainland China. In the MuV virology surveillance, 194 MuV strains during 2013-2015 were isolated from 10 of 31 provinces in mainland China. Based on the phylogenetic analysis of the small hydrophobic (SH) gene, both genotype F (99.0%) and G (1.0%) were identified, and genotype F was still the predominant genotype continuously circulating in mainland China. Representative genotype F and G strains isolated in China from 1995 to 2012 were selected for further analysis. The results indicated that there were multiple transmission chains within genotype F, with no obvious geographical or time differences. The high genetic diversity of genotype F strains could be a result of the continuous transmission and evolution of the MuV in mainland China. Genotype G was also detected in four provinces in mainland China. Because of the limited epidemiological data, it was uncertain whether the genotype G MuV strains found in 2011 and 2013 were imported from other countries. Therefore, combined high-quality epidemiological and virological surveillance is necessary for mumps control; it can also be used to observe the changes in epidemiological characteristics and viral transmission of mumps over time after mumps-containing vaccine (MuCV) implementation and to provide a comprehensive epidemiological and genetic baseline for mumps elimination in mainland China.