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Li D, Zhang H, You N, Chen Z, Yang X, Zhang H, Zhou Y, Zheng N, Pan W. Mumps serological surveillance following 10 years of a one-dose mumps-containing-vaccine policy in Fujian Province, China. Hum Vaccin Immunother 2022; 18:2096375. [PMID: 35950847 DOI: 10.1080/21645515.2022.2096375] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Since 2008, Fujian province provided measles-rubella (MR) vaccine at 8 months followed by measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine at 18 months a one-dose mumps-containing-vaccine (MuCV) schedule. Several mumps outbreaks have occurred recently in Fujian. Serological surveillance can assess population immunity to mumps and identify risk factors for mumps. METHODS We conducted a cross-sectional serosurvey of mumps IgG antibodies in the general population of Fujian Province in 2018 and compare results with a similar study conducted in 2009, when the routine schedule had no MuCV. We analyzed changes in mumps epidemiology after implementation of a one-dose MuCV vaccination strategy. RESULTS Mumps seroprevalence was 78.6% (95% CI: 77.4-79.8), and the geometric mean concentration (GMC) of mumps antibodies was 245.8 IU/ml (95% CI:237.3-255.1). MuCV vaccination at 18 months resulted in increased seroprevalence and GMCs. Seroprevalence and GMCs varied by age, gender, and number of doses received. Except for children under 18 months, seroprevalence and GMCs were lowest among 10-15-year-olds. Each year after introduction of the one-dose MuCV vaccination policy, the highest incidence of mumps was among 4-6-year-olds and 9-15-year-olds, gradually shifting to older age groups. CONCLUSION A one-dose mumps-containing vaccine schedule does not provide sustained and stable mumps immunity in Fujian. To reduce the risk of mumps, we recommend supplementary vaccination of children without a history of receiving at least one MuCV dose or who are seronegative at 10-15 years of age.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dong Li
- Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Zoonosis Research, Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fuzhou, China
| | - Hairong Zhang
- Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Zoonosis Research, Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fuzhou, China
| | - Na You
- Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Zoonosis Research, Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fuzhou, China.,Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China
| | - Zhifei Chen
- Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Zoonosis Research, Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fuzhou, China
| | - Xiuhui Yang
- Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Zoonosis Research, Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fuzhou, China
| | - Hangsu Zhang
- Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Zoonosis Research, Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fuzhou, China
| | - Yong Zhou
- Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Zoonosis Research, Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fuzhou, China
| | - Ningxuan Zheng
- Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Zoonosis Research, Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fuzhou, China
| | - Weiyi Pan
- Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Zoonosis Research, Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fuzhou, China
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Yang T, Wang Y, Zhao Q, Guo X, Yu S, Zhao Z, Deng B, Huang J, Liu W, Su Y, Chen T. Age-specific transmission dynamic of mumps: A long-term large-scale modeling study in Jilin Province, China. Front Public Health 2022; 10:968702. [PMID: 36420012 PMCID: PMC9678053 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.968702] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2022] [Accepted: 10/13/2022] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Objectives Despite the adoption of a new childhood immunization program in China, the incidence of mumps remains high. This study aimed to describe the epidemiological characteristics of mumps in Jilin Province from 2005 to 2019 and to assess the transmissibility of mumps virus among the whole population and different subgroups by regions and age groups. Methods The Non-age-specific and age-specific Susceptible-Exposed-Pre-symptomatic-Infectious-Asymptomatic-Recovered (SEPIAR) models were fitted to actual mumps incidence data. The time-varying reproduction number (R t ) was used to evaluate and compare the transmissibility. Results From 2005 to 2019, a total of 57,424 cases of mumps were reported in Jilin Province. The incidence of mumps was the highest in people aged 5 to 9 years (77.37 per 100,000). The two SEPIAR models fitted the reported data well (P < 0.01). The median transmissibility (R t ) calculated by the two SEPIAR models were 1.096 (range: 1.911 × 10-5-2.192) and 1.074 (range: 0.033-2.114) respectively. The age-specific SEPIAR model was more representative of the actual epidemic of mumps in Jilin Province from 2005-2019. Conclusions For mumps control, it is recommended that mumps-containing vaccines (MuCV) coverage be increased nationwide in the 5-9 years age group, either by a mumps vaccine alone or by a combination of vaccines such as measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine. The coverage of vaccines in Jilin Province should be continuously expanded to establish solid immunity in the population. China needs to redefine the optimal time interval for MuCV immunization.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tianlong Yang
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Yao Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Qinglong Zhao
- Jilin Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changchun, China
| | - Xiaohao Guo
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Shanshan Yu
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Zeyu Zhao
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Bin Deng
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Jiefeng Huang
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Weikang Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Yanhua Su
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China,*Correspondence: Tianmu Chen
| | - Tianmu Chen
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China,Yanhua Su
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Peng Y, Yang T, Zhu Y, Hu Q, Wang Y, Zhao Z, Rui J, Lin S, Liu X, Xu J, Yang M, Deng B, Huang J, Liu W, Luo L, Liu C, Li Z, Li P, Kong D, Yang X, Chen T. Estimating the Transmissibility of Mumps: A Modelling Study in Wuhan City, China. Front Med (Lausanne) 2021; 8:683720. [PMID: 34414203 PMCID: PMC8369200 DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2021.683720] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/22/2021] [Accepted: 06/23/2021] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Despite the adoption of a national immunization program in China, the incidence of mumps remains high. This study aimed to describe the epidemiological characteristics, including the time, region, occupation, and age, of mumps in Wuhan from 2005 to 2018 and to evaluate its transmissibility. In this study, the susceptible-exposed-infectious-asymptomatic-recovered (SEIAR) model fitted the actual incidence data of mumps. The effective reproduction number (R t ) was used to evaluate and compare the transmission capacity in different areas. From 2005 to 2018, there were 36,415 cases. The incidence of mumps was highest among people aged 5-10 years (460.02 per 100,000). The SEIAR model fitted the reported mumps data well (P < 0.01). The median transmissibility (R t ) was 1.04 (range = 0-2.50). There were two peak spreads every year (from March to May and from October to December). The R t peak always appeared in the first 2 months of the peak incidence rate. The peak time of the epidemic spread of mumps was 1-2 months earlier than the peak incidence rate. The prevention and control measures of vaccination for children aged 5-10 years should be taken before the peak transmission capacity each year, 2 months before the peak of the outbreak, to reduce the spread of mumps.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ying Peng
- Wuhan Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan, China
| | - Tianlong Yang
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Yuanzhao Zhu
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Qingqing Hu
- Division of Public Health, School of Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, United States
| | - Yao Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Zeyu Zhao
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Jia Rui
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Shengnan Lin
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Xingchun Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Jingwen Xu
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Meng Yang
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Bin Deng
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Jiefeng Huang
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Weikang Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Li Luo
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Chan Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Zhuoyang Li
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Peihua Li
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Deguang Kong
- Wuhan Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan, China
| | - Xiaobing Yang
- Wuhan Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan, China
| | - Tianmu Chen
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
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Qiu H, Zhao H, Xiang H, Ou R, Yi J, Hu L, Zhu H, Ye M. Forecasting the incidence of mumps in Chongqing based on a SARIMA model. BMC Public Health 2021; 21:373. [PMID: 33596871 PMCID: PMC7890879 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-021-10383-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/17/2020] [Accepted: 02/03/2021] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Mumps is classified as a class C infection disease in China, and the Chongqing area has one of the highest incidence rates in the country. We aimed to establish a prediction model for mumps in Chongqing and analyze its seasonality, which is important for risk analysis and allocation of resources in the health sector. METHODS Data on incidence of mumps from January 2004 to December 2018 were obtained from Chongqing Municipal Bureau of Disease Control and Prevention. The incidence of mumps from 2004 to 2017 was fitted using a seasonal autoregressive comprehensive moving average (SARIMA) model. The root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used to compare the goodness of fit of the models. The 2018 incidence data were used for validation. RESULTS From 2004 to 2018, a total of 159,181 cases (93,655 males and 65,526 females) of mumps were reported in Chongqing, with significantly more men than women. The age group of 0-19 years old accounted for 92.41% of all reported cases, and students made up the largest proportion (62.83%), followed by scattered children and children in kindergarten. The SARIMA(2, 1, 1) × (0, 1, 1)12 was the best fit model, RMSE and MAPE were 0.9950 and 39.8396%, respectively. CONCLUSION Based on the study findings, the incidence of mumps in Chongqing has an obvious seasonal trend, and SARIMA(2, 1, 1) × (0, 1, 1)12 model can also predict the incidence of mumps well. The SARIMA model of time series analysis is a feasible and simple method for predicting mumps in Chongqing.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hongfang Qiu
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 400016 China
| | - Han Zhao
- Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, 400042 China
| | - Haiyan Xiang
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 400016 China
| | - Rong Ou
- Department of Medical Informatics Library, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 400016 China
| | - Jing Yi
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 400016 China
| | - Ling Hu
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 400016 China
| | - Hua Zhu
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 400016 China
| | - Mengliang Ye
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 400016 China
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Zhu H, Zhao H, Ou R, Xiang H, Hu L, Jing D, Sharma M, Ye M. Epidemiological Characteristics and Spatiotemporal Analysis of Mumps from 2004 to 2018 in Chongqing, China. Int J Environ Res Public Health 2019; 16:ijerph16173052. [PMID: 31443544 PMCID: PMC6747306 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16173052] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/14/2019] [Revised: 08/17/2019] [Accepted: 08/19/2019] [Indexed: 01/16/2023]
Abstract
Mumps vaccines have been widely used in recent years, but frequent mumps outbreaks and re-emergence around the world have not stopped. Mumps still remains a serious public health problem with a high incidence in China. The status of mumps epidemics in Chongqing, the largest city in China, is still unclear. This study aimed to investigate the epidemiological and spatiotemporal characteristics of mumps and to provide a scientific basis for formulating effective strategies for its prevention and control. Surveillance data of mumps in Chongqing from January 2004 to December 2018 were collected from the National Notifiable Diseases Reporting Information System. A descriptive analysis was conducted to understand the epidemiological characteristics. Hot spots and spatiotemporal patterns were identified by performing a spatial autocorrelation analysis, a purely spatial scan, and a spatiotemporal scan at the county level based on geographic information systems. A total of 895,429 mumps cases were reported in Chongqing, with an annual average incidence of 36.34 per 100,000. The yearly incidence of mumps decreased markedly from 2004 to 2007, increased sharply from 2007 to 2011, and then tapered with a two-year cyclical peak after 2011. The onset of mumps showed an obvious bimodal seasonal distribution, with a higher peak of mumps observed from April to July of each year. Children aged 5–9 years old, males, and students were the prime high-risk groups. The spatial distribution of mumps did not exhibit significant global autocorrelation in most years, but local indicators of spatial autocorrelation and scan statistics detected high-incidence clusters which were mainly located in the midwestern, western, northeastern, and southwestern parts of Chongqing. The aggregation time frame detected by the purely temporal scan was between March 2009 and July 2013. The incidence of mumps in Chongqing from 2004 to 2018 featured significant spatial heterogeneity and spatiotemporal clustering. The findings of this study might assist public health agencies to develop real-time space monitoring, especially in the clustering regions and at peak periods; to improve immunization strategies for long-term prevention; and to deploy health resources reasonably.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hua Zhu
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing 400016, China
| | - Han Zhao
- Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing 400042, China
| | - Rong Ou
- Department of Medical Informatics Library, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing 400016, China
| | - Haiyan Xiang
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing 400016, China
| | - Ling Hu
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing 400016, China
| | - Dan Jing
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing 400016, China
| | - Manoj Sharma
- Department of Behavioral and Environmental Health, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS 39213, USA
| | - Mengliang Ye
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing 400016, China.
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