Modeling the Impact of Nutrition Interventions on Birth Outcomes in the Lives Saved Tool (LiST)

Multiple micronutrient supplementation cost-benefit tool for informing maternal nutrition policy and investment decisions

Antenatal multiple micronutrient supplementation (MMS) is an intervention that can help reach three of the six global nutrition targets, either directly or indirectly: a reduction in low birth weight, stunting, and anaemia in women of reproductive age. To support global guideline development and national decision-making on investments into maternal nutrition, Nutrition International developed a modelling tool called the MMS cost-benefit tool to help users understand whether antenatal MMS is better value for money than iron and folic acid supplementation (IFAS) during pregnancy. The MMS cost-benefit tool can generate estimates on the potential health impact, budget impact, economic value, cost-effectiveness and benefit-cost ratio of investing in MMS compared to IFAS in LMICs. In the 33 countries with data included in the tool, the MMS cost-benefit tool shows that transitioning is expected to generate substantial health benefits in terms of morbidity and mortality averted and can be very cost-effective in multiple scenarios for these countries. The cost per DALY averted averages at US$ 23.61 and benefit-cost ratio ranges from US$ 41-US$ 1304: $1.0, which suggest MMS is good value for money compared with IFAS. With its user-friendly design, open access availability, and online data-driven analytics, the MMS cost-benefit tool can be a powerful resource for governments and nutrition partners seeking timely and evidence-based analyses to inform policy-decision and investments towards the scale-up of MMS for pregnant women globally.

Interventions to reduce preterm birth and stillbirth, and improve outcomes for babies born preterm in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Reducing preterm birth and stillbirth and improving outcomes for babies born too soon is essential to reduce under-5 mortality globally. In the context of a rapidly evolving evidence base and problems with extrapolating efficacy data from high- to low-income settings, an assessment of the evidence for maternal and newborn interventions specific to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is required.

METHODS

A systematic review of the literature was done. We included all studies performed in LMICs since the Every Newborn Action Plan, between 2013 - 2018, which reported on interventions where the outcome assessed was reduction in preterm birth or stillbirth incidence and/or a reduction in preterm infant neonatal mortality. Evidence was categorised according to maternal or neonatal intervention groups and a narrative synthesis conducted.

RESULTS

179 studies (147 primary evidence studies and 32 systematic reviews) were identified in 82 LMICs. 81 studies reported on maternal interventions and 98 reported on neonatal interventions. Interventions in pregnant mothers which resulted in significant reductions in preterm birth and stillbirth were (i) multiple micronutrient supplementation and (ii) enhanced quality of antenatal care. Routine antenatal ultrasound in LMICs increased identification of fetal antenatal conditions but did not reduce stillbirth or preterm birth due to the absence of services to manage these diagnoses. Interventions in pre-term neonates which improved their survival included (i) feeding support including probiotics and (ii) thermal regulation. Improved provision of neonatal resuscitation did not improve pre-term mortality rates, highlighting the importance of post-resuscitation care. Community mobilisation, for example through community education packages, was found to be an effective way of delivering interventions.

CONCLUSIONS

Evidence supports the implementation of several low-cost interventions with the potential to deliver reductions in preterm birth and stillbirth and improve outcomes for preterm babies in LMICs. These, however, must be complemented by overall health systems strengthening to be effective. Quality improvement methodology and learning health systems approaches can provide important means of understanding and tackling implementation challenges within local contexts. Further pragmatic efficacy trials of interventions in LMICs are essential, particularly for interventions not previously tested in these contexts.

Social Assistance Programs and Birth Outcomes: A Systematic Review and Assessment of Nutrition and Health Pathways

BACKGROUND

Poor birth outcomes are an important global public health problem. Social assistance programs that provide cash or in-kind transfers, such as food or vouchers, hold potential to improve birth outcomes but the evidence on their effectiveness has not been reviewed.

OBJECTIVES

We systematically reviewed studies that used experimental or quasi-experimental methods to evaluate the impacts of social assistance programs on outcomes in low- and middle-income countries.

METHODS

The Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE) system was used to assess the certainty of the evidence for birth weight and neonatal mortality (most common outcomes reported). We summarized the evidence on hypothesized nutrition and health pathways of impact.

RESULTS

We included 6 evaluations of 4 different cash transfer programs and 1 evaluation of a community-based participatory learning and action program that provided food and cash transfers. The 4 studies that assessed birth weight impacts found significant (P < 0.05) effects ranging from 31 to 578 g. Out of 3 studies that assessed neonatal mortality impacts, 2 found significant effects ranging from 0.6 to 3.1 deaths/1000 live births. The certainty of the evidence for both outcomes was rated as very low due to several methodological limitations. In terms of potential pathways, some studies documented positive effects on maternal diet, antenatal care (ANC) utilization, and delivery in a health facility.

CONCLUSIONS

Better-designed evaluations are needed to strengthen the evidence base on these programs. Evaluation studies should elucidate underlying mechanisms of impact by including outcomes related to maternal diet, ANC seeking, use of skilled delivery, and women's empowerment in nutrition and health domains. Studies should also assess potential unintended negative consequences of social assistance, such as reduced birth spacing and excess pregnancy weight gain.

Associations between gestational age at birth and infection-related hospital admission rates during childhood in England: Population-based record linkage study

BACKGROUND

Children born preterm (<37 completed weeks' gestation) have a higher risk of infection-related morbidity than those born at term. However, few large, population-based studies have investigated the risk of infection in childhood across the full spectrum of gestational age. The objectives of this study were to explore the association between gestational age at birth and infection-related hospital admissions up to the age of 10 years, how infection-related hospital admission rates change throughout childhood, and whether being born small for gestational age (SGA) modifies this relationship.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Using a population-based, record-linkage cohort study design, birth registrations, birth notifications and hospital admissions were linked using a deterministic algorithm. The study population included all live, singleton births occurring in NHS hospitals in England from January 2005 to December 2006 (n = 1,018,136). The primary outcome was all infection-related inpatient hospital admissions from birth to 10 years of age, death or study end (March 2015). The secondary outcome was the type of infection-related hospital admission, grouped into broad categories. Generalised estimating equations were used to estimate adjusted rate ratios (aRRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for each gestational age category (<28, 28-29, 30-31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41 and 42 weeks) and the models were repeated by age at admission (<1, 1-2, 3-4, 5-6, and 7-10 years). An interaction term was included in the model to test whether SGA status modified the relationship between gestational age and infection-related hospital admissions. Gestational age was strongly associated with rates of infection-related hospital admissions throughout childhood. Whilst the relationship attenuated over time, at 7-10 years of age those born before 40 weeks gestation were still significantly higher in comparison to those born at 40 weeks. Children born <28 weeks had an aRR of 6.53 (5.91-7.22) during infancy, declining to 3.16 (2.50-3.99) at ages 7-10 years, in comparison to those born at 40 weeks; whilst in children born at 38 weeks, the aRRs were 1·24 (1.21-1.27) and 1·18 (1.13-1.23), during infancy and aged 7-10 years, respectively. SGA status modified the effect of gestational age (interaction P<0.0001), with the highest rate among the children born at <28 weeks and SGA. Finally, study findings indicated that the associations with gestational age varied by subgroup of infection. Whilst upper respiratory tract infections were the most common type of infection experienced by children in this cohort, lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) (<28 weeks, aRR = 10.61(9.55-11.79)) and invasive bacterial infections (<28 weeks, aRR = 6.02 (4.56-7.95)) were the most strongly associated with gestational age at birth. Of LRTIs experienced, bronchiolitis (<28 weeks, aRR = 11.86 (10.20-13.80)), and pneumonia (<28 weeks, aRR = 9.49 (7.95-11.32)) were the most common causes.

CONCLUSIONS

Gestational age at birth was strongly associated with rates of infection-related hospital admissions during childhood and even children born a few weeks early remained at higher risk at 7-10 years of age. There was variation between clinical subgroups in the strength of relationships with gestational age. Effective infection prevention strategies should include focus on reducing the number and severity of LRTIs during early childhood.

Maternal-focused interventions to improve infant growth and nutritional status in low-middle income countries: A systematic review of reviews

BACKGROUND

Small and nutritionally at-risk infants under 6 months (<6m) are a vulnerable group at increased risk of mortality, morbidity, poor growth and sub-optimal development. Current national and international (World Health Organization) management guidelines focus mainly on infants' needs, yet growing evidence suggests that maternal factors also influence infant outcomes. We aimed to inform future guidelines by exploring the impacts of maternal-focused interventions on infant feeding and growth.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review of reviews published since 2008 (PROSPERO, register number CRD 42019141724). We explored five databases and a wide variety of maternal-focused interventions based in low- and middle-income countries. Infant outcomes of interest included anthropometric status, birthweight, infant mortality, breastfeeding and complementary feeding practices. Given heterogenous interventions, we present a narrative synthesis of the extracted data.

RESULTS

We included a total of 55 systematic reviews. Numerous maternal interventions were effective in improving infant growth or feeding outcomes. These included breastfeeding promotion, education, support and counselling interventions. Maternal mental health, while under-researched, showed potential to positively impact infant growth. There was also some evidence for a positive impact of: women's empowerment, m-health technologies, conditional cash transfers, water, sanitation and hygiene and agricultural interventions. Effectiveness was increased when implemented as part of a multi-sectoral program. Antenatal supplementation with macronutrient, multiple micronutrients, Vitamin D, zinc, iron folic acid and possibly calcium, iodine and B12 in deficient women, improved birth outcomes. In contrast, evidence for postnatal supplementation was limited as was evidence directly focusing on small and nutritionally at-risk infants; most reviews focused on the prevention of growth faltering.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest sufficient evidence to justify greater inclusion of mothers in more holistic packages of care for small and nutritionally at-risk infants aged <6m. Context specific approaches are likely needed to support mother-infant dyads and ensure infants survive and thrive.

Nutrition Interventions in the Lives Saved Tool (LiST)

The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) was initially developed in 2003 to estimate the impact of increasing coverage of efficacious interventions on under-5 mortality. Over time, the model has been expanded to include more outcomes (neonatal mortality, maternal mortality, stillbirths) and interventions. The model has also added risk factors, such as stunting and wasting, and over time has attempted to capture a full range of nutrition and nutrition-related interventions (e.g., antenatal supplementation, breastfeeding promotion, child supplemental feeding, acute malnutrition treatment), practices (e.g., age-appropriate breastfeeding), and outcomes (e.g., stunting, wasting, birth outcomes, maternal anemia). This article reviews the overall nutrition-related structure, assumptions, and outputs that are currently available in LiST. This review focuses on the new assumptions and structure that have been added to the model as part of the current effort to expand and improve the nutrition modeling capability of LiST. It presents the full set of linkages in the model that relate to nutrition outcomes, as well as the research literature used to support those linkages.

New Option in the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) Allows for the Conversion of Prevalence of Small-for-Gestational-Age and Preterm Births to Prevalence of Low Birth Weight

Background: The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) is a software model that estimates the health impact of scaling up interventions on maternal and child health. One of the outputs of the model is an estimation of births by fetal size [appropriate-for-gestational-age (AGA) or small-for-gestational-age (SGA)] and by length of gestation (term or preterm), both of which influence birth weight. LiST uses prevalence estimates of births in these categories rather than of birth weight categories, because the causes and health consequences differ between SGA and preterm birth. The World Health Assembly nutrition plan, however, has set the prevalence of low birth weight (LBW) as a key indicator, with a specific goal of a 30% reduction in LBW prevalence by 2025.Objective: The objective of the study is to develop an algorithm that will allow LiST users to estimate changes in prevalence of LBW on the basis of changes in coverage of interventions and the resulting impact on prevalence estimates of SGA and preterm births.Methods: The study used 13 prospective cohort data sets from low- and middle-income countries (LMICs; 4 from sub-Saharan Africa, 5 from Asia, and 4 from Latin America), with reliable measures of gestational age and birth weight. By calculating the proportion of LBW births among SGA and preterm births in each data set and meta-analyzing those estimates, we calculated region-specific pooled rates of LBW among SGA and preterm births.Results: In Africa, 0.4% of term-AGA, 36.7% of term-SGA, 49.3% of preterm-AGA, and 100.0% of preterm-SGA births were LBW. In Asia, 1.0% of term-SGA, 47.0% of term-SGA, 36.7% of preterm-AGA, and 100.0% of preterm-SGA births were LBW. In Latin America, 0.4% of term-AGA, 34.4% of term-SGA, 32.3% of preterm-AGA, and 100.0% of preterm-SGA births were LBW.Conclusions: The simple conversion factor proposed here allows for the estimation of LBW within LiST for most LMICs. This will allow LiST users to approximate the impact of their health programs on LBW prevalence via the impact on SGA and preterm prevalence.