Trends in gastrointestinal cancer incidence in Iran, 2001-2010: a joinpoint analysis

Comparing the trend of colorectal cancer before and after the implementation of the Population-Based National Cancer Registry in Iran

Introduction

Colorectal cancer is the third most common malignancy and the second leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. This disease is the fourth most common malignancy in Iran. Since knowing the trend of this cancer is necessary for planning; this study aimed to compare the trend of colorectal cancer before and after implementing the Population-Based National Cancer Registry.

Methods

In this time series analysis using secondary data, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was used to predict the future trend. An Interrupted Time Series (ITS) regression model was also used to compare the incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer before and after the setting up of the Iranian National Population-Based Cancer Registry (INPCR).

Results

Among Iranian men, an increasing trend in the incidence (from 16.8 in 2019 to 19.5 per 100,000 in 2027) and deaths of colorectal cancer for the coming years was predicted (from 10.2 in 2019 to 11.2 per 100,000 in 2027). A similar pattern was also observed for the incidence of this cancer among females (from 11 in 2019 to 12.3 per 100,000 in 2027), but a reverse pattern was predicted for the trend of deaths among women (from 2.06 in 2019 to 1.93 per 100,000 in 2027). During the years after the implementation of the INPCR, the trend of cases (β: 0.33, p < 0.001) as well as deaths due to colorectal cancer was significantly increasing (β: 0.08, p < 0.001) among the Iranian population.

Conclusions

Probably, part of the increase in the incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer could be due to the improvement of the registration and reporting system of new cancer cases.

Prevalence, trends, and characteristics of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease among the US population aged 12-79 years

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Clinical observation revealed an increase in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) prevalence among adults and adolescents and young adults (AYA). However, its prevalence trend in specific subgroups and its characteristics are unclear.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

This cross-sectional study included adults and AYA aged 20-79 and 12-19 years, respectively, from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 1999 to 2018. MASLD was defined as US Fatty Liver Index ≥30 in adults and alanine amino transaminase elevation and obesity in AYA. Joinpoint and logistic regression were used to evaluate the MASLD prevalence trend and its associated characteristics. MASLD was diagnosed in 17 156 892 of 51 109 914 (33.6%) adults and 1 705 586 of 29 278 666 AYA (5.8%). During the study period, MASLD prevalence significantly increased from 30.8% to 37.7% ( P  < 0.01) in adults and in subgroups of female participants, individuals aged 20-45 and 61-79 years, and non-Hispanic white individuals. Conversely, MASLD prevalence did not significantly change in AYA (from 5.1% to 5.2%, P  = 0.139), except in the subgroup of Mexican Americans (from 8.2% to 10.8%, P  = 0.01). Among adults, high MASLD prevalence was associated with male sex, Mexican American ethnicity, age >50 years, being unmarried, poverty income ratio <130, poor or fair health condition, obesity or overweight, and chronic conditions. Among AYA, high MASLD prevalence was associated with male sex, poverty income ratio <130, and education.

CONCLUSION

Accordingly, we concluded that health care providers should prevent and treat conditions associated with MASLD by raising awareness of the increasing trend of MASLD.

Prevalence, trends, and characteristics of polypharmacy among US pregnant women aged 15 to 44 years: NHANES 1999 to 2016

Polypharmacy has become a major health issue for pregnant woman due to the increased trend of medication use during pregnancy. However, data on medication use in pregnancy are limited since pregnant women are rarely included in clinical trials. Our study aimed to investigate the trends of and characteristics associated with polypharmacy among pregnant women in the US. This study was conducted using data from The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey in the US. Nine The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey cycles between 1999 and 2016 were used to identify pregnant women aged 15 to 44 years. Polypharmacy was defined as more than 1 medication prescription used during pregnancy. Descriptive statistics were used to report the prevalence and trends of polypharmacy. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to evaluate characteristics associated with polypharmacy among US pregnant women. Among 3,350,983 US pregnant women, about 7.4% of them (247,525) experienced polypharmacy. The prevalence of polypharmacy increased from 2.8% (1999-2000) to 10.0% (2015-2016) (P < .01) over-the time period examined in this study. Pregnant women were less likely to have experienced polypharmacy than were nonpregnant women (7.4% vs 23.5%, P < .01). Levothyroxine and albuterol were 2 prescriptions commonly taken by pregnant women. Pregnant women who were non-Hispanic white (P < .05) or had asthma (P < .05) or diabetes (P < .01) were more likely to report polypharmacy. Regarding personal characteristics, women with a poor or fair self-reported general health condition (odds ratio: 5.12, 95% confidence interval: 1.23-21.34) and those with chronic conditions (odds ratio: 6.91, 95% confidence interval: 3.08-15.50) were found to be associated with polypharmacy. An increased trend of polypharmacy was found in the US from 1999 to 2016. Non-Hispanic white pregnant women with a poor health status and chronic diseases were at an increased risk of polypharmacy.

Mortality Trends of Gastrointestinal, Liver, and Pancreaticobiliary Diseases: A Hospital-Based Prospective Study in the Southeast of Iran

Background: Gastrointestinal (GI), liver, and pancreaticobiliary diseases, in addition to the high health care utilization, account for a significant proportion of disability and death in Iran. We aimed to assess the incidence of in-hospital mortality for the total GI, liver, and pancreaticobiliary diseases in all hospitals in Kerman, Iran. Methods: In a cross-sectional study from May 2017 to April 2018, we collected the data of in-hospital death records due to GI, liver, and pancreaticobiliary diseases in all hospitals in Kerman city. GI and liver diseases were classified into three main categories: 1. Non-malignant GI diseases, 2. Non-malignant liver and pancreaticobiliary diseases, and 3. GI, liver, and pancreaticobiliary malignancies. All data were analyzed using SPSS software, version 22 (IBM). Results: Of 3427 in-hospital mortality, 269 (7.84%) deaths were due to GI, liver, and pancreaticobiliary diseases, of which 82 (30.48%) were related to non-malignant GI disorders, 92 (34.20%) to the non-malignant liver and pancreaticobiliary diseases, and 95 (35.31%) were associated with GI, liver and pancreaticobiliary malignancies. Most patients were male (62.08%), and the most common age was between 60-80 years (40.5%). GI bleeding occurred in 158 (58.73%) patients, and variceal bleeding was the most common cause (28.48%). Additionally, cirrhosis was reported in 41 out of 92 (44.56%), and hepatitis B virus (HBV) was the most common cause of cirrhosis among 17 out of 41 (41.46%). Conclusion: Our results show that gastric, colorectal, and pancreatic cancers and cirrhosis due to HBV were the most common causes of mortality associated with GI, liver, and pancreaticobiliary diseases in the hospitals of Kerman.

A cost-effectiveness modeling study of treatment interventions for stage I to III esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Background

Esophageal cancer causes considerable costs for health systems. Appropriate treatment options for patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) can reduce medical costs and provide more improved outcomes for health systems and patients. This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of treatment interventions for patients with ESCC according to the Iranian health system.

Material and methods

A five-state Markov model with a 15-year time horizon was performed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of treatment interventions based on stage for ESCC patients. Costs ($US 2021) and outcomes were calculated from the Iranian health system, with a discount rate of 3%. One-way sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the potential effects of uncertain variables on the model results.

Results

In stage I, the Endoscopic Mucosal Resection (EMR) treatment yielded the lowest total costs and highest total QALY for a total of $1473 per QALY, making it the dominant strategy compared with esophagectomy and EMR followed by ablation. In stages II and III, chemoradiotherapy (CRT) followed by surgery dominated esophagectomy. CRT followed by surgery was also cost-effective with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $2172.8 per QALY compared to CRT.

Conclusion

From the Iranian health system’s perspective, EMR was the dominant strategy versus esophagectomy and EMR followed by ablation for ESCC patients in stage I. The CRT followed by surgery was a cost-effective intervention compared to CRT and esophagectomy in stages II and III.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12962-022-00352-5.

Investigating Trends of Incidence Rates of Esophageal Cancer Divided by Squamous Cell Carcinoma and Adenocarcinoma in Southern Iran: a 10-Year Experience

BACKGROUND

Gastrointestinal cancers account for a significant number of deaths and new cancer cases worldwide. Our aim is to investigate stratum-specific incidence trends of esophageal cancer in southern Iran considering age, gender, and morphological (adenocarcinoma/squamous cell carcinoma) subtypes.

METHOD

We used data on esophageal cancer incidence in the catchment area of Shiraz Population-Based Cancer Registry. New cancer cases with ICD-O-3 codes of C15.0 to C15.9 were retrieved and prepared. New annual cases were counted for categories defied based on age group, gender, and morphology. Average annual percentage change (AAPC) and its 95% CI was estimated for each trend using joinpoint regression.

RESULTS

The total number of esophageal cancer was higher in males than females. It is an increasing rate in esophageal adenocarcinoma in females and this increase was more prominent in older ages. Also, our study showed that SCC has a decreasing trend in females and a steady trend in males.

DISCUSSION

Taken together, the increasing trend in adenocarcinoma in females in our study can be related to the increasing rate of obesity and smoking in females in recent years in our region. The incidence trend of different morphologic types of esophageal cancer is changing. This can be a consequence of alterations in the incidence trend of different risk factors. It is necessary to conduct more studies evaluating these risk factors.

Significant Association of Variable Number Tandem Repeat Polymorphism rs58335419 in the MIR137 Gene With the Risk of Gastric and Colon Cancers

The purpose of the article: The MIR137 gene acts as a tumor-suppressor gene in colon and gastric cancers. The aim of this study was to investigate the association of functional variable number tandem repeat (VNTR) polymorphism rs58335419 locating in the upstream of the MIR137 gene with the risk of colon and gastric cancers.

Materials and methods: Totally, 429 individuals were contributed in the study, including 154 colon and 120 gastric cancer patients and 155 healthy controls. The target VNTR was genotyped using PCR and electrophoresis for all samples. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS 21.0 software and by T, χ2 and logistic regression tests.

Results: Excluding the rare genotypes, our results showed that genotype 3/5 (95% CI = 1.08–3.73, OR = 2.01, p = 0.026) significantly increased the risk of colon cancer but not gastric cancer (95% CI = 0.88–3.30, OR = 1.70, p = 0.114). Also, in the stratification analysis for VNTRs and sex, genotypes 3/4 (95% CI = 1.00–6.07, OR = 2.46, p = 0.049) and 3/5 (95% CI = 1.25–7.18, OR = 2.99, p = 0.014) significantly increased the risk of colon cancer in men but not in women. In addition, all genotypes including the rare genotypes as a group, significantly increase the risk of gastric (95% CI = 1.14–3.00, OR = 1.85, p = 0.012) and colon (95% CI = 1.38–3.43, OR = 2.17, p = 0.001) cancers compared to the genotype 3/3 as a reference.

Conclusion: The results show that increasing the copy of VNTR in the MIR137 gene, increases the risk of colon and gastric cancers and can serve as a marker for susceptibility to colon and gastric cancers.

Gastrointestinal Cancer Prevention Policies: A Qualitative Systematic Review and Meta-Synthesis

This qualitative systematic review was conducted to summarize the policies for prevention of common gastrointestinal cancers worldwide. This study was conducted using PubMed, Web of Science, SCOPUS, and ProQuest databases. Two independent reviewers assessed included studies for methodological quality and extracted data by using standardized tools from Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI). Primary study findings were read and reread to identify the strategies or policies used in the studies for prevention of gastrointestinal cancers. The extracted findings were categorized on the basis of their similarity in meaning. These categories were then subjected to a meta-synthesis. The final synthesized findings were graded according to the ConQual approach for establishing confidence in the output of qualitative research synthesis. From the nine included studies in this review, 39 findings were extracted and based on their relevance in meaning were aggregated into 12 categories. Four synthesized findings were developed from these categories. We used World Health Organization report on 2000 for synthesizing the findings. The four synthesized findings were "service provision", "resource generation", "financing", and "stewardship". In order to reach a comprehensive evidence informed policy package for the prevention of gastrointestinal cancers, there should be a great communication among the interventions conducted directly on patients, health system infrastructures, and resources.

Ten-year data analysis of digestive system malignancies in Babol, North of Iran: 2008-2017

BACKGROUND

Unlike some regions of the world where digestive system cancers are not considered as important health problems, these neoplasms are among the most common malignancies in the northern region of Iran.

METHODS

This observational analytical study was carried out based on data collected by the Cancer Registration Center affiliated to the Vice Chancellery for Health of Babol University of Medical Sciences, North of Iran, during 2008-2017. Crude incidence rate (CR), and age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) have been calculated for different GI cancers, based on the primary involved site; and have been compared in different years, patients' age, gender and place of residence.

RESULTS

Totally, 4332 records were related to digestive system cancers. Mean age of patients was 63.48±14.73 years; men (2743; 63.3%) were more affected than women (1589; 36.7%) (p<0.001). The most incident malignancies of digestive system were from stomach, colorectal and esophagus in men; and colorectal, stomach and esophagus in women, respectively. These three cancers accounted for 3725 (85.98%) of total GI malignancies. The mean age of patients in various types of GI cancers was statistically different (p<0.001). Age- standardized incidence rate showed different values in different years; from 521.40 (95% CI: 462.79-580.00) in year 2016 to 1834.33 (95% CI: 1637.36-2031.29) in year 2008.

CONCLUSION

Gastric, esophageal and colorectal cancers were the most prevalent digestive system malignancies in Babol, North of Iran, and accounted for about 86% of all GI tract cancers. A considerable variation has been found in incident gastrointestinal cancers in different years.

The effect of massage therapy on fatigue after chemotherapy in gastrointestinal cancer patients

INTRODUCTION

Gastrointestinal cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy usually suffer from fatigue, which may affect different aspects of their lives.

OBJECTIVE

The current study aimed to investigate the effect of massage therapy on fatigue after chemotherapy in gastrointestinal cancer patients.

METHOD

In this quasi-experimental study, 88 gastrointestinal cancer patients were randomly allocated into two groups of intervention and control. Patients received the chemotherapy for 3 h. The intervention group received four sessions of foot massage with an interval of 40 min during the chemotherapy. The massage duration was 7 min for each foot. Fatigue was measured using the visual analogue scale to evaluate fatigue severity just after and 24 h after the chemotherapy. Friedman and Mann-Whitney U tests were used to analyze the data.

RESULTS

The mean age of patients was 59/18 ± 9/35, and the most common type of cancer was gastric cancer (40%). There was a significant difference in the mean score of fatigue between the two groups immediately after (P > 0.001) and 24 h after chemotherapy (P < 0.001). In the intervention group, fatigue score decreased gradually (P = 0.031), while it increased in the control group (P = 0.001).

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrated that foot massage, as a simple method, could reduce chemotherapy-induced fatigue.

Incidence and Risk Factors of Colorectal Cancer in the Iranian Population: a Systematic Review

PURPOSE

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most common cancers in the world. The aim of this study was to investigate its incidence and risk factors in the Iranian population.

METHODS

A literature search was conducted in PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, SID, and Magiran from inception until 2019. Studies that reported the incidence rate and risk factors of colorectal cancer were included in this review.

RESULTS

Twenty-one articles that reported the incidence rate and 13 that reported the risk factors were included. The incidence rate was different according to the population type, gender, age, and study year in different regions. The main risk factors for colorectal cancer were high consumption of red meat and fried food and low intake of fruits and vegetables, diabetes, a positive family history, and obesity.

CONCLUSION

The incidence of CRC has a marked variation in different parts of Iran, and various risk factors are associated with colorectal cancer. According to incidence rate and various risk factors, precise planning is needed to control colorectal cancer in the future.

Epidemiologic Study of Gastric Cancer in Iran: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Gastric cancer (GC) is one of the most common cancers in Iran. Knowledge of the epidemiology of the disease is essential in planning for prevention. So this study aimed to investigate the epidemiological aspects of gastric cancer including prevalence, incidence, mortality, and risk factors of Iran.

METHODS

This systematic review study was based on articles published in both English and Persian languages during the years of 1970-2020 in international databases (PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus) and national databases (including SID, Magiran, and IranDoc). Papers related to epidemiological aspects of the disease including mortality, prevalence, incidence, and risk entered the final review.

RESULTS

According to the studies, the minimum and maximum prevalence of gastric cancer in northwestern Iran (Ardabil) is between 0.2 and 100 per 100,000. Also, the death rate per 100,000 people ranged from 10.6 to 15.72 and the ASMR ranged from 4.2 to 32.2%. On the other hand, the incidence of GC was higher in men than in women (74.9 vs 4.6%). The GC risk ratio was 8-times higher in the elderly than in the other age groups (HR=8.0, 2.7-23.5). The incidence of gastric cancer in patients with H. pylori infection was 18-times and that of smokers 2-times higher than other populations. Low level of economic situation and food insecurity increased the odds of GC by 2.42- and 2.57-times, respectively. It should be noted that there was a direct relationship between consumption of processed red meat, dairy products, fruit juice, smoked and salty fish and legumes, strong and hot tea, and consumption of salt and gastric cancer incidence. There was also an inverse relationship between citrus consumption, fresh fruit, garlic, and gastric cancer. In addition, the mRNA genes are the most GC-related genes.

CONCLUSION

Given the high incidence of GC in Iran, changing lifestyle and decreasing consumption of preservatives in food, increasing consumption of fruits and vegetables, and improving the lifestyle can be effective in reducing the incidence of this disease.

Trend of Gastric Cancer Incidence in an Area Located in the Center of Iran: 2009-2014

PURPOSE

There are remarkable differences between the incidence and mortality of gastric cancer in different places of the world. This study, for the first time, estimated the information around the incidence rates and trends of gastric cancer in the central area of Iran, Arak metropolitan.

METHODS

In this study, all cases with gastric cancer in Arak from 2009 to 2014 were included. Direct standardized method was applied to estimate age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) by a STATA package, with efficient interval estimation that might be preferable in the case of rare diseases, including cancer data. The obtained standard errors were used to calculate annual percent changes (APCs) by the Joinpoint analysis.

RESULTS

Annual ASIRs of gastric cancer were 23.92 (95% CI 21.62, 26.37) and 9.60 (95% CI 8.20, 11.18) for male and female, respectively. In male, APC of ASIRs was - 5.00% (95% CI - 9.32, - 0.47). In contrast, among female, it was - 2.69% (95% CI - 31.56, 38.34) that was statistically insignificant.

CONCLUSIONS

The ASIRs have significantly decreased trends in males, but not in females. The preventive strategies should be a focus on the declining of the risk factors and the quick early diagnosis of gastric cancer.

Descriptive Epidemiology of Brain and Central Nervous System Tumours: Results from Iran National Cancer Registry, 2010-2014

Background

Central nervous system (CNS) tumours account for only 1-2% of cancer incidence but are a major reason for mortality and morbidity due to malignancies. Recent studies show an increase in the rate of CNS tumours worldwide, especially in developing countries. Moreover, there is significant heterogeneity in epidemiological patterns worldwide. This study is aimed at representing nationwide epidemiology of CNS tumours in Iran.

Methods

Iran National Cancer Registry 2010-2014 data were reviewed for CNS tumours. The epidemiological rates were calculated for both genders and all age groups using the 2011 census information.

Results

Out of 17345 cases, 58.5% were men and 41.5% were women. The mean age was 45.55 years ranging from less than 1 month to 100 years old. Average total age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) was 5.19 for primary tumours. The annual percent change (APC) was 14.23% during the study period. The most frequent site and histology recorded were brain, NOS and diffuse astrocytic, respectively. Geographical distribution showed about five-fold difference in ASRs between different provinces.

Conclusion

The overall ASR calculated was higher than the global rate in 2012 but lower than that of most developed countries, showing an increasing trend which may be due to either advances in diagnosing or risk factor augmentation. The mean age and incident rates were higher than those of previous reports in Iran.

Opium and risk of gastrointestinal cancer: a case-control study

Background/aim

Gastrointestinal (GI) cancers are among the most common cancers in the world. Many risk factors may increase the chance of developing GI cancers. In recent years, a number of epidemiological studies have reported evidence of carcinogenic effects of opium in humans. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between opium use and GI cancer.

Materials and methods

This case-control study was performed on 95 patients with GI cancer and 190 healthy individuals (matched for age, sex, place of residence, and smoking) in Rafsanjan, Iran, in 2018. Diet information, as well as history of smoking, the use of hookah, opium, and its derivatives was collected using a checklist in interview sessions. Conditional logistic regression was performed to investigate the proposed relationship and to estimate odds ratios (OR).

Results

After adjusting the confounding variables, the use of opium was significantly associated with an increased risk of GI cancer development (OR = 5.95, 95% CI: 2.4–14.9). Also, a dose-response association was found between the cumulative use of opium and the risk of GI cancers. Consumption of fruit and vegetables reduced the risk of developing GI cancers in opium users (OR = 4.9 and 4.7, respectively).

Conclusion

Opium, in the form used among drug users in this area, can lead to an increased risk of GI cancers. Fruit and vegetables have a protective and modifying effect on the risk of GI cancer development caused by opium consumption.

Predictors of Colorectal Cancer Screening Participation in Southern Khorasan (Iran)

PURPOSE

Colorectal cancer is one of the most important common malignancies; therefore, timely screening for colorectal cancer can lead to early diagnosis and long survival for patients. The purpose of this study was to investigate the related factors in fecal occult blood test for screening of colorectal cancer based on health belief model constructs in high-risk population in east of Iran.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was performed on 475 people over 40 years old in Birjand (East of Iran) who were selected by multi-stage sampling. A valid and reliable questionnaire was used for data collection. Data were analyzed using logistic regression test in the SPSS software version 19s.

RESULTS

In this study, 480 subjects were included in the final analysis, 331 (69%) were male, and the rest of them were female. Mean age of the participants was 55.12 with the standard deviation of 10.04. Of those studied population, 8.3% performed screening tests for early detection of colorectal cancer, and 15% intended to do so. There was a significant relationship between gastrointestinal disease history and perceived self-efficacy and test performance. In addition, significant relationship was observed between perceived self-efficacy in male participants and intention to do test (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Perceived self-efficacy was the most salient predictor of the probability of undergoing fecal occult blood testing as well as the history of the test. Promoting perceived self-efficacy is very important in the process of promoting colorectal cancer screening behaviors. Therefore, it is recommended that when designing educational interventions, consideration should be given to enhancing the perceived self-efficacy of at-risk individuals to overcome the barriers for performing fecal occult blood testing.

Incidence of Esophageal Cancer in Iran, a Population-Based Study: 2001-2015

PURPOSE

Even though Kurdistan, the western province of Iran, has a cancer surveillance system, a detailed analysis of incidence rate has not been yet performed. We describe Age Standardized Incidence Rates (ASRs) for esophageal cancer (EC) in Kurdistan Province of Iran in 2001-2015.

METHODS

Incidence cases of EC were obtained from a population-based cancer registry. We obtained ASRs and 95% confidence intervals (CI) per 100,000 populations for each calendar year group.

RESULTS

Between 2001 and 2015, 1362 incidence cases with EC were reported to the cancer registry. Annual ASRs in 2006-2010 were more than the other years in both men and women, respectively. Most ASRs were reported among women in Divandarreh (18.95, 95% CI 14.76, 23.92), Saqez (12.75, 95% CI 10.73, 15.01), Sanandaj (8.84, 95% CI 7.64, 10.17), and Qorveh (8.19, 95% CI 6.54, 10.12), and among men in Divandarreh (19.38, 95% CI 15.38, 24.06), Saqez (13.64, 95% CI 11.49, 16.05), Sanandaj (8.70, 95% CI 7.56, 9.96), and Marivan (7.93, 95% CI 6.26, 9.88).

CONCLUSIONS

It was concluded that EC in Divandarreh, Saqez, and Sanandaj has the highest ASRs, and these areas are considered as high-risk areas for this disease in the Iranian province of Kurdistan. Therefore, to understand the reasons of these problems, a considerable work is needed.

A 12-year trend analysis of the incidence of gastrointestinal cancers in East Azerbaijan: last updated results of an ongoing population-based cancer registry

BACKGROUND

The most recent results of Global Cancer Statistics indicated that gastrointestinal cancers, including gastric, colorectal, esophageal, and liver cancers, are among the most commonly diagnosed cancers worldwide. Previous reports from cancer registries in East Azerbaijan have shown that there is a high incidence of gastrointestinal cancer in this region, so we performed a trend analysis to determine the pattern of change over the last decade.

METHODS

In total, 12 years of cancer registry data were collected from different sources in East Azerbaijan, and a data quality check was performed to ensure clean data. Using the 2000 World Health Organization standard population, we then generated age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) for different cancers, and for each year from 1383 to 1394 of the Persian calendar (i.e., 19 March 2004 to 20 March 2015). Annual percent changes (APCs) and Average annual percent changes (AAPCs) in the ASRs for esophageal, gastric, small intestine, colorectal, anal, liver, gallbladder, and pancreatic cancers were calculated using Joinpoint Software (Version 4.5.0.1, June 2017).

RESULTS

An increase in most types of cancer was observed during the study period. The ASR for colorectal cancer increased from 2.9 to 13.6 per 100,000 women (APC, 9.7%) and from 2.2 to 17.8 per 100,000 men (APC, 10.2%). The ASR for gastric cancer showed a slight increasing trend from 10.5 to 13.5 per 100,000 women (APC, 1.3%) and from 3.1 to 29.9 per 100,000 men (APC, 3.2%). However, trend analysis showed a decreasing pattern for the ASR of esophageal cancer in both genders (APC,- 3%), with APCs of - 1.1% in females and - 0.4% in males.

CONCLUSIONS

The latest results of the East Azerbaijan Population-Based Cancer Registry indicate that gastrointestinal cancers remain common, with significant increasing trends in their ASRs. Improved screening and early detection are needed in this region.

Trends and Risk Factors of Gastric Cancer in Iran (2005-2010)

Background:

Gastric cancer (GC) is the first and the third prevalent cancer among males and females in Iran, respectively. The aim of this study was mainly to identify high-risk areas of GC by assessing the spatial and temporal pattern of incidence, and second, to explore some risk factors of GC in ecological setting.

Methods:

In this cross-sectional ecological study we used Bayesian hierarchical space-time model to measure the relative risk and temporal trends of GC in Iran from 2005 to 2010 based on available data. Data analysis was done by the use of integrated nested Laplace approximation Bayesian approach in R software.

Results:

Overall trend of GC was significantly decreasing during the study period. Ardabil, Khorasan Razavi, West Azarbaijan, Zanjan, and Mazandaran provinces had the highest risk of incidence. Overweight and smoking were directly and significantly associated with GC risk.

Conclusions:

During the study period, GC has decreased in Iran. Nevertheless, GC risk was generally high in Northern and Northwestern provinces of Iran. Different health policies according to GC risk and trend are required for each province. Improvements in screening and education programs and conducting further epidemiological studies could help to reduce the incidence of GC in high risk provinces.

Determining Risk Factors for Gastric and Esophageal Cancers between 2009-2015 in East-Azarbayjan, Iran Using Parametric Survival Models

Background: Esophageal cancer (EC) and Gastric cancer (GC) have been identified as two of the most common cancers in the northeastern regions of Iran. The increasing rates of these types of cancers requires attention. This study aims to assess the potential risk factors for these two cancers and then determine shared risk factors between them in a population of Iranian patients using parametric survival models. Methods: This retrospective cohort study was conducted using 127 patients with EC and 184 patients with GC in East Azarbaijan, Iran who were diagnosed and registered during the years 2009-2010 in Iran’s National Cancer Control Registration Program and were followed for five years. Parametric survival models were used to find the risk factors of the patients. Akaike Information Criteria was used to identify the best parametric model in this study. Interaction analysis was used to determine shared risk factors between EC and GC. Results: The mean (±standard deviation) age of diagnoses for EC and GC were 66.92(±11.95) and 66.5(±11.5) respectively. The survival time ranges of GC patients was (0.07-70.33) and the survival time ranges were from 0.10 to 69.03 months for EC patients. Multivariable Log- logistic model showed that being married (OR=2.25, 95% CI: 1.33 - 3.81) for EC patients and Esophagectomy surgery for EC (OR: 1.62, 95% CI: 1.04 – 2.55) and GC (OR: 1.60, 95% CI: 1.02 – 2.53) had significant effects on survival. Age at the time of diagnosis, job status, and Esophagectomy surgery were statistically comparable regarding their magnitude of effect on survival of two cancers (all Ps>0.05). Conclusion: Esophagectomy surgery and being married were important risk factors in EC and GC. The log-logistic model was the most appropriate statistical approach to identify significant risk factors on survival of both cancers.

A Spatial Survival Model in Presence of Competing Risks for Iranian Gastrointestinal Cancer Patients

Background:

Gastrointestinal cancer is one of the common causes of death from cancer in Iran. Survival analysis is usually used to detect prognostic factors of time to death from gastrointestinal cancers. The use of ordinary survival models, in the presence of competing risks and/or when data is collected within geographic areas, may lead to distorting the results. Therefore, the aim of this study is to use the spatial survival models in the presence of competing risks to assess the risk factors affecting the survival time of gastrointestinal cancer patients.

Methods:

The data in this study was collected from 602 patients who were diagnosed with gastrointestinal cancer in Golestan and Mazandaran provinces registered in Iran’s National Institute of Health Research from 2002 through 2007 and were followed up to July 2017. The data was analyzed using the cause-specific hazard frailty model with multivariate conditional autoregressive distribution for frailties in the presence of competing risks (death from gastrointestinal cancer, heart disease, and other causes) via OpenBUGS software.

Results:

The hazard of death from gastrointestinal cancer in men patients, patients who lived in rural areas, patients whose relatives did not have a history of cancer, patients who did not undergo surgery, and patients with gastric cancer was significantly higher than others. Based on the deviance information criterion (DIC), frailty models and spatial frailty models seemed better than no-frailty model and non-spatial frailty model, respectively.

Conclusions:

This study showed that the use of the spatial frailty term in the model helps better fit the model. Also, the spatial pattern in the figures suggests the necessity of presence of some still missing, spatially varying covariates relevant for time to death from gastrointestinal cancer, heart disease, or other causes.

Cancer trends in a province of Southwest of Iran, 2003-2016

BACKGROUND

Awareness of the trends of cancer incidence in each geographic region is an important. The aim of present study was to determine the incidence trends of cancer in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari (Ch and B) province in Southwest of Iran.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In this secondary data analysis, retrospective existing data were used from cancer registry reports in Ch and B in Southwest of Iran in 2003-2016. Data on epidemiologic trend were analyzed using Joinpoint software package and annual percentage change (APC) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) was computed.

RESULTS

Age-standardized incidence rate per 100,000 persons in the province in 2003 was 31.74 that increased to 147.14 in 2016. APC during 2003-2016 was 12.58% (CI: 9.3-16) and significant, which was 10.22% (7.4-13.1) and 14.47% (10.2-18.9) in men and women, respectively. Incidence of the stomach, breast, colorectal, thyroid, lymph node, and ovarian cancers is increasing and the highest incidence was observed in two age groups of 25-34 and 55-64 years.

CONCLUSION

In general, cancers are of increasing trend. Surveillance and monitoring the incidence of cancer and studying the causes of environmental or genetic in the cancer changes can help for cancer prevention and control.

Burden of esophageal cancer in Iran during 1995-2015: Review of findings from the Global Burden of Disease studies

Background: Iran is located in Asian esophageal cancer belt, with age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) of approximately 7 per 100,000 for both men and women. To provide potential solution recommendations for achieving accurate estimations regarding the burden of the disease in Iran, we designed a study to assess the burden of esophageal cancer in Iran during 1995-2015 by collecting data from the Global Burden of Disease studies.

Methods: Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) during 1995-2015, which were published by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. For this purpose, disability adjusted life years (DALYs), incidence, and prevalence rate were applied to report burden of esophageal cancer based on gender and age group in Iran during 1995-2015. The Cochran-Armitage and t test were used to assess statistical significance. Stata Version 13 and Excel 2016 were used for data analysis.

Results: During 1995-2015, in total, 304 102 DALYs (179 562 for males vs. 124 540 for females) were attributed to esophageal cancer in Iran. In both genders and all ages, the number of DALYs increased significantly from 45 018 in 1995 to 74 399 in 2015.

Conclusion: Esophageal cancer is still a public health issue in Iran. Most of DALYs were due to years of life lost (YLL), suggesting the need for prevention, early detection, and screening programs. P-value was statistically significant just between male and female groups (p<0.05).