Recent increase in pertussis incidence in South Korea: An age-period-cohort analysis

Pertussis in the Post-COVID-19 Era: Resurgence, Diagnosis, and Management

Pertussis is endemic worldwide, with epidemics occurring every 2 to 5 years despite a high vaccination coverage. After limited circulation during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, pertussis cases have increased rapidly worldwide since mid-late 2023, returning to pre-pandemic patterns. In Korea, 90 cases of pertussis were reported from April 2020 to May 2023, with elderly individuals aged ≥65 years accounting for 48.9%. Pertussis cases have increased sharply since June 2024, showing a nationwide epidemic, with a large increase among adolescents aged 13-15 years. As of August 2024, the national incidence rate of pertussis was estimated to be 37.75 per 100,000 population, with the highest incidence of 526.2 per 100,000 population in 13-year-olds. In Europe, during 2023-2024, an increase in pertussis incidence among infants was observed, along with large increases in 10-19-year-olds. In China, the number of reported cases of pertussis has increased rapidly since late 2023, with an age shift to older children, increase of vaccine escape, and a marked increase in the prevalence of macrolide-resistant Bordetella pertussis. The recent global resurgence of pertussis is due to decreased opportunities for boosting immunity by natural infection during the COVID-19 pandemic in combination with waning of immunity-induced pertussis vaccines.

Pertussis epidemic in Korea and implications for epidemic control

The pertussis epidemic in Korea is ongoing, with a record-high incidence rate. Although pertussis incidence is high worldwide in 2024, the scale of the increase observed in Korea is unprecedented and incomparable to that in other countries. The high proportion of cases among children aged 5 to 14 years is the distinctive characteristics of the 2024 pertussis epidemic in Korea. To accurately interpret the epidemiological trend in pertussis incidence in Korea, validating the surveillance system and evaluating vaccine efficacy and effectiveness are essential.

Incidence and Healthcare Burden of Pertussis among Older Adults with and without Pre-Existing Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease or Asthma in South Korea

A retrospective cohort study was conducted to examine trends in the incidence and burden of pertussis among adults ≥50 years in South Korea, with/without pre-existing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or asthma. The nationwide Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service (HIRA) database was used to identify patients ≥50 years diagnosed with pertussis (2009-2018). Mean annual incidence of pertussis per 100 000 persons and overall mean incidence rate ratios (IRR) were calculated for patients with pre-existing COPD or asthma versus those with neither. Incremental healthcare costs (all-cause and pertussis-related) and healthcare utilisation (number of outpatient visits, emergency room visits, and number and length of hospitalisations) up to 12 months after, compared to 3 months before pertussis diagnosis, were also measured for each group (matched on sex, age, and Charlson Comorbidity Index). Of 1011 pertussis cases, 175 had asthma, 96 had COPD (not mutually exclusive), and 796 had neither. Overall mean pertussis incidence was 2.5, 3.4, and 0.5 for adults with pre-existing COPD, asthma, and those with neither. IRR (95% confidence interval) of pertussis for adults with pre-existing COPD and asthma was 4.9 (4.0-‍6.1) and 6.7 (5.7-7.9). Both COPD-pertussis and asthma-pertussis groups had higher mean incremental all-cause costs and length of hospitalisations than the general-pertussis group 3 months following pertussis diagnosis. In conclusion, individuals ≥50 years in South Korea with pre-existing COPD or asthma were at an increased risk of being diagnosed with pertussis and had higher healthcare resource utilisation than those without these conditions.

Bacterial Etiology in Subacute Cough

Although postinfectious etiology is the most common cause of subacute cough, there are insufficient data on the epidemiology of associated bacterial infections. We aimed to identify the etiology of bacterial detection in subjects with subacute cough. A multicenter prospective observational study of 142 patients with postinfectious subacute cough was performed between August 2016 and December 2017 in Korea. We obtained 2 nasal swabs from each patient and used a multiplex bacterial polymerase chain reaction (PCR) kit that simultaneously detects Bordetella pertussis, Chlamydophila pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, Legionella pneumophilia, Mycoplasma pneumoniae, and Streptococcus pneumoniae. About 29% (n = 41) of patients with subacute cough were positive for bacterial PCR in nasal swabs. The most common bacteria detected by bacterial PCR was H. influenzae (n = 19, 13.4%), followed by S. pneumoniae (n = 18, 12.7%), B. pertussis (n = 7, 4.9%), M. pneumoniae (n = 3, 2.1%), L. pneumophilia (n = 2, 1.4%), and C. pneumoniae (n = 1, 0.7%). Nine patients had dual positivity for the PCR. In conclusion, bacterial PCR was positive in the nasal swabs of about 29% of subjects with subacute cough, including 5% of positive PCR results for B. pertussis.

Pre-Pandemic Distribution of Bacterial Species in Nasopharyngeal Swab Specimens from Pediatric and Adult Patients Detected via RT-PCR Using the Allplex Respiratory Panel

Background: Recently, panel-based molecular diagnostics for the simultaneous detection of respiratory viruses and bacteria in nasopharyngeal swab (NPS) specimens have been highlighted. We identified the distribution of bacterial species in NPS specimens collected from pediatric and adult patients by employing RT-PCR (Allplex respiratory panel 4, RP4, Seegene) to estimate its applicability in a panel-based assay for detecting respiratory viruses. Methods: We used 271 and 173 NPS specimens from pediatric and adult patients, respectively. The results of the Allplex RP4 panel using NPS (NPS-RP4) from adult patients were compared with those of the Seeplex PneumoBacter ACE Detection assay (Seegene), which used sputum for testing (sputum-Seeplex). Results: A total of 147 specimens (54.2%) were positive for the NPS-RP4 panel in pediatric patients. There were 94, 77, 10, 3, 3, and 2 specimens that were positive for Haemophilus influenzae (HI), Streptococcus pneumoniae (SP), Mycoplasma pneumoniae (MP), Chlamydia pneumoniae (CP), Bordetella pertussis (BP), and B. parapertussis (BPP), respectively. Among 173 adult patients, 39 specimens (22.5%) were positive in the NPS-RP4. Thirty specimens were positive for HI, and 13 were positive for SP. One specimen tested positive for both MP and Legionella pneumophila (LP). CP, BP, and BPP results were all negative. However, 126 specimens (72.8%) had positive results with sputum-Seeplex (99 SP, 59 HI, three LP, and two MP), and the overall percentage of agreement between the two assays was 39.3% in the adult patients. Conclusions: Bacterial species in NPS from more than half of pediatric patients were detected. Performing the Allplex RP4 assay with NPS revealed additional respiratory bacteria that are not detected in current clinical practices, which do not include bacterial testing, demanding the use of sputum specimens. However, the use of NPS showed low agreement with standard assays using sputum in adult patients. Thus, more research is needed to develop a reliable RT-PCR method using NPS specimens in adult patients.

Epidemiological Characteristics of Notifiable Respiratory Infectious Diseases in Mainland China from 2010 to 2018

Respiratory infectious diseases (RIDs) pose threats to people's health, some of which are serious public health problems. The aim of our study was to explore epidemic situations regarding notifiable RIDs and the epidemiological characteristics of the six most common RIDs in mainland China. We first collected the surveillance data of all 12 statutory notifiable RIDs for 31 provinces in mainland China that reported between 2010 and 2018, and then the six most prevalent RIDs were selected to analyze their temporal, seasonal, spatiotemporal and population distribution characteristics. From 2010 to 2018, there were 13,985,040 notifiable cases and 25,548 deaths from RIDs in mainland China. The incidence rate of RIDs increased from 109.85/100,000 in 2010 to 140.85/100,000 in 2018. The mortality from RIDs ranged from 0.18/100,000 to 0.24/100,000. The most common RIDs in class B were pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB), pertussis, and measles, while those in class C were seasonal influenza, mumps and rubella. From 2010 to 2018, the incidence rate of PTB and rubella decreased; however, pertussis and seasonal influenza increased, with irregular changes in measles and mumps. The mortality from PTB increased from 2015 to 2018, and the mortality from seasonal influenza changed irregularly. PTB was mainly prevalent among people over 15 years old, while the other five common RIDs mostly occurred among people younger than 15 years old. The incidence of the six common RIDs mostly occurred in winter and spring, and they were spatiotemporally clustered in different areas and periods. In conclusion, PTB, seasonal influenza and mumps remain as public health problems in China, suggesting that continuous government input, more precise interventions, and a high-tech digital/intelligent surveillance and warning system are required to rapidly identify emerging events and timely response.

Evaluation of Whole-Cell and Acellular Pertussis Vaccines in the Context of Long-Term Herd Immunity

After the pertussis vaccine had been introduced in the 1940s and was shown to be very successful in reducing the morbidity and mortality associated with the disease, the possibility of improving both vaccine composition and vaccination schedules has become the subject of continuous interest. As a result, we are witnessing a considerable heterogeneity in pertussis vaccination policies, which remains beyond universal consensus. Many pertussis-related deaths still occur in low- and middle-income countries; however, these deaths are attributable to gaps in vaccination coverage and limited access to healthcare in these countries, rather than to the poor efficacy of the first generation of pertussis vaccine consisting in inactivated and detoxified whole cell pathogen (wP). In many, particularly high-income countries, a switch was made in the 1990s to the use of acellular pertussis (aP) vaccine, to reduce the rate of post-vaccination adverse events and thereby achieve a higher percentage of children vaccinated. However the epidemiological data collected over the past few decades, even in those high-income countries, show an increase in pertussis prevalence and morbidity rates, triggering a wide-ranging debate on the causes of pertussis resurgence and the effectiveness of current pertussis prevention strategies, as well as on the efficacy of available pertussis vaccines and immunization schedules. The current article presents a systematic review of scientific reports on the evaluation of the use of whole-cell and acellular pertussis vaccines, in the context of long-term immunity and vaccines efficacy.

ARIMA and ARIMA-ERNN models for prediction of pertussis incidence in mainland China from 2004 to 2021

OBJECTIVE

To compare an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model with a model that combines ARIMA with the Elman recurrent neural network (ARIMA-ERNN) in predicting the incidence of pertussis in mainland China.

BACKGROUND

The incidence of pertussis has increased rapidly in mainland China since 2016, making the disease an increasing public health threat. There is a pressing need for models capable of accurately predicting the incidence of pertussis in order to guide prevention and control measures. We developed and compared two models for predicting pertussis incidence in mainland China.

METHODS

Data on the incidence of pertussis in mainland China from 2004 to 2019 were obtained from the official website of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. An ARIMA model was established using SAS (ver. 9.4) software and an ARIMA-ERNN model was established using MATLAB (ver. R2019a) software. The performances of these models were compared.

RESULTS

From 2004 to 2019, there were 104,837 reported cases of pertussis in mainland China, with an increasing incidence over time. The incidence of pertussis showed obvious seasonal characteristics, with the peak lasting from March to September every year. Compared with the mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the ARIMA model, those of the ARIMA-ERNN model were 81.43%, 95.97% and 80.86% lower, respectively, in fitting performance. In terms of prediction performance, the MAE, MSE and MAPE were 37.75%, 56.88% and 43.75% lower, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The fitting and prediction performances of the ARIMA-ERNN model were better than those of the ARIMA model. This provides theoretical support for the prediction of infectious diseases and should be beneficial to public health decision making.

Post-Marketing Surveillance of Tetravalent Diphtheria-Tetanus-Acellular Pertussis and Inactivated Poliovirus (DTaP-IPV) Vaccine in South Korea, 2009 to 2015

Introduction

TETRAXIM™ (Sanofi), a combined diphtheria, tetanus, acellular pertussis, and inactivated poliovirus (DTaP-IPV) vaccine, has been licensed in South Korea since 2009. In accordance with the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety regulations, this post-marketing surveillance (PMS) study evaluated the safety of the DTaP-IPV vaccine in real-world clinical practice in infants and children who received it as either a part of the three-dose primary series dose at 2, 4, and 6 months or school entry booster between 4 and 6 years of age.

Methods

This multicenter, observational, PMS study was conducted in real-world practice in South Korea for 6 years (2009–2015) in participants aged between 2 months and 6 years. The study outcomes included solicited reactions, unsolicited adverse events (AEs)/adverse drug reactions (ADRs), unexpected AEs/ADRs, and serious AEs (SAEs)/ADRs.

Results

Data from 647 participants was included in the safety analysis. Overall, 268 AEs were reported by 181 (28%) participants: 47 (17.5%) solicited reactions, 220 (82.1%) unsolicited AEs, and 1 (0.4%) unsolicited ADR. A total of 48 AEs (including 47 solicited reactions) were reported to have a causal relationship with the DTaP-IPV vaccine and were reported by 36 (5.6%) participants. A total of 212 unexpected AEs were reported by 152 (23.5%) participants, none of which had a causal relationship with the DTaP-IPV vaccine. Neither immediate AEs nor SAEs were reported during the study. Among the participants who reported AEs, 220 (34%) were on concomitant medications. Most AEs were of mild intensity, and all participants recovered.

Conclusion

No safety concerns related to the DTaP-IPV vaccine in a real-world setting were raised in participants aged 2–6 months for the primary series and 4–6 years for the school-entry booster dose in the Korean population. The DTaP-IPV vaccine was well tolerated and can be continued as part of routine immunization programs in infants and children.

Trial Registration: NCT01437423.