An Acarological Risk Model Predicting the Density and Distribution of Host-Seeking Ixodes scapularis Nymphs in Minnesota

Epidemiologic and tick exposure characteristics among people with reported Lyme disease - Minnesota, 2011-2019

AIMS AND METHODS

In the United States, blacklegged Ixodes spp. ticks are the primary vector of Lyme disease. Minnesota is among the states with the highest reported incidence of Lyme disease, having an average of 1857 cases reported annually during 2011-2019. In contrast to the Northeast and mid-Atlantic United States where exposure to ticks predominately occurs around the home, the circumstances regarding risk for exposure to blacklegged ticks in Minnesota are not well understood, and risk is thought to be highest in rural areas where people often participate in recreational activities (e.g. hiking, visiting cabins). We analysed enhanced surveillance data collected by the Minnesota Department of Health during 2011-2019 to describe epidemiologic and tick exposure characteristics among people with reported Lyme disease.

RESULTS

We found that younger age, male gender, residence in a county with lower Lyme disease risk, residence in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area, and an illness onset date later in the year were independently associated with higher odds of reporting tick exposures away from the home. We also describe the range of activities associated with tick exposure away from the home, including both recreational and occupational activities.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings refine our understanding of Lyme disease risk in Minnesota and highlight the need for heterogeneous public health prevention messaging, including an increased focus on peridomestic prevention measures among older individuals living in high-risk rural areas and recreational and occupational prevention measures among younger individuals living in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area.

Density of host-seeking Ixodes scapularis nymphs by region, state, and county in the contiguous United States generated through national tick surveillance

The majority of vector-borne disease cases reported annually in the United States are caused by pathogens spread by the blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis. The number and geographic distribution of cases have increased as the geographic range and abundance of the tick have expanded in recent decades. A large proportion of Lyme disease and other I. scapularis-borne diseases are associated with nymphal tick bites; likelihood of such bites generally increases with increasing nymphal densities. National tick surveillance was initiated in 2018 to track changes in the distribution and abundance of medically important ticks at the county spatial scale throughout the United States. Tick surveillance records, including historical data collected prior to the initiation of the national program, are collated in the ArboNET Tick Module database. Through exploration of ArboNET Tick Module data, we found that efforts to quantify the density of host-seeking I. scapularis nymphs (DON) were unevenly distributed among geographic regions with the greatest proportion of counties sampled in the Northeast and Upper Midwest. Submissions covering tick collections from 2004 through 2022 revealed extensive variation in DON estimates at collection site, county, state, and regional spatial scales. Throughout the entire study period, county DON estimates ranged from 0.0 to 488.5 nymphs/1,000 m2 . Although substantial variation was recorded within regions, DON estimates were greatest in the Northeast, Upper Midwest, and northern states within the Southeast regions (Virginia and North Carolina); densities were intermediate in the Ohio Valley and very low in the South and Northern Rockies and Plains regions. The proportion of counties classified as moderate or high DON was lower in the Northeast, Ohio Valley, and Southeast regions during the 2004 through 2017 time period (prior to initiation of the national tick surveillance program) compared to 2018 through 2022; DON estimates remained similarly low between these time periods in the South and the Northern Rockies and Plains regions. Despite the limitations described herein, the ArboNET Tick Module provides useful data for tracking changes in acarological risk across multiple geographic scales and long periods of time.

Models and data used to predict the abundance and distribution of Ixodes scapularis (blacklegged tick) in North America: a scoping review

Tick-borne diseases (TBD) remain prevalent worldwide, and risk assessment of tick habitat suitability is crucial to prevent or reduce their burden. This scoping review provides a comprehensive survey of models and data used to predict I. scapularis distribution and abundance in North America. We identified 4661 relevant primary research articles published in English between January 1st, 2012, and July 18th, 2022, and selected 41 articles following full-text review. Models used data-driven and mechanistic modelling frameworks informed by diverse tick, hydroclimatic, and ecological variables. Predictions captured tick abundance (n = 14, 34.1%), distribution (n = 22, 53.6%) and both (n = 5, 12.1%). All studies used tick data, and many incorporated both hydroclimatic and ecological variables. Minimal host- and human-specific data were utilized. Biases related to data collection, protocols, and tick data quality affect completeness and representativeness of prediction models. Further research and collaboration are needed to improve prediction accuracy and develop effective strategies to reduce TBD.

Evaluation of the association between climate warming and the spread and proliferation of Ixodes scapularis in northern states in the Eastern United States

Ixodes scapularis (the blacklegged tick) is widely distributed in forested areas across the eastern United States. The public health impact of I. scapularis is greatest in the north, where nymphal stage ticks commonly bite humans and serve as primary vectors for multiple human pathogens. There were dramatic increases in the tick's distribution and abundance over the last half-century in the northern part of the eastern US, and climate warming is commonly mentioned as a primary driver for these changes. In this review, we summarize the evidence for the observed spread and proliferation of I. scapularis being driven by climate warming. Although laboratory and small-scale field studies have provided insights into how temperature and humidity impact survival and reproduction of I. scapularis, using these associations to predict broad-scale distribution and abundance patterns is more challenging. Numerous efforts have been undertaken to model the distribution and abundance of I. scapularis at state, regional, and global scales based on climate and landscape variables, but outcomes have been ambiguous. Across the models, the functional relationships between seasonal or annual measures of heat, cold, precipitation, or humidity and tick presence or abundance were inconsistent. The contribution of climate relative to landscape variables was poorly defined. Over the last half-century, climate warming occurred in parallel with spread and population increase of the white-tailed deer, the most important reproductive host for I. scapularis adults, in the northern part of the eastern US. There is strong evidence for white-tailed deer playing a key role to facilitate spread and proliferation of I. scapularis in the US over the last century. However, due to a lack of spatially and temporally congruent data, climate, landscape, and host variables are rarely included in the same models, thus limiting the ability to evaluate their relative contributions or interactions in defining the geographic range and abundance patterns of ticks. We conclude that the role of climate change as a key driver for geographic expansion and population increase of I. scapularis in the northern part of the eastern US over the last half-century remains uncertain.

Assessing the Influence of Climate Change and Environmental Factors on the Top Tick-Borne Diseases in the United States: A Systematic Review

In the United States (US), tick-borne diseases (TBDs) have more than doubled in the past fifteen years and are a major contributor to the overall burden of vector-borne diseases. The most common TBDs in the US-Lyme disease, rickettsioses (including Rocky Mountain spotted fever), and anaplasmosis-have gradually shifted in recent years, resulting in increased morbidity and mortality. In this systematic review, we examined climate change and other environmental factors that have influenced the epidemiology of these TBDs in the US while highlighting the opportunities for a One Health approach to mitigating their impact. We searched Medline Plus, PUBMED, and Google Scholar for studies focused on these three TBDs in the US from January 2018 to August 2023. Data selection and extraction were completed using Covidence, and the risk of bias was assessed with the ROBINS-I tool. The review included 84 papers covering multiple states across the US. We found that climate, seasonality and temporality, and land use are important environmental factors that impact the epidemiology and patterns of TBDs. The emerging trends, influenced by environmental factors, emphasize the need for region-specific research to aid in the prediction and prevention of TBDs.

Changes in the geographic distribution of the blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis, in the United States

Ixodes scapularis (the blacklegged tick) was considered a species of no medical concern until the mid-1970s. By that time, the tick's geographic distribution was thought to be mainly in the southeastern United States (US), with additional localized populations along the Eastern Seaboard north to southern Massachusetts and in the Upper Midwest. Since 1975, I. scapularis has been implicated as a vector of seven human pathogens and is now widely distributed across the eastern US up to the border with Canada. Geographic expansion of tick-borne diseases associated with I. scapularis (e.g., Lyme disease, anaplasmosis, and babesiosis) is attributed to an expanding range of the tick. However, due to changes in tick surveillance efforts over time, it is difficult to differentiate between range expansion and increased recognition of already established tick populations. We provide a history of the documented occurrence of I. scapularis in the US from its description in 1821 to present, emphasizing studies that provide evidence of expansion of the geographic distribution of the tick. Deforestation and decimation of the white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), the primary reproductive host for I. scapularis adults, during the 1800s presumably led to the tick disappearing from large areas of the eastern US where it previously had been established. Subsequent reforestation and deer population recovery, together with recent climate warming, contributed to I. scapularis proliferating in and spreading from refugia where it had persisted into the early 1900s. From documented tick collection records, it appears I. scapularis was present in numerous locations in the southern part of the eastern US in the early 1900s, whereas in the north it likely was limited to a small number of refugia sites during that time period. There is clear evidence for established populations of I. scapularis in coastal New York and Massachusetts by 1950, and in northwestern Wisconsin by the late 1960s. While recognizing that surveillance for I. scapularis increased dramatically from the 1980s onward, we describe multiple instances of clearly documented expansion of the tick's geographic distribution in the Northeast, Upper Midwest, and Ohio Valley regions from the 1980s to present. Spread and local population increase of I. scapularis, together with documentation of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto in host-seeking ticks, was universally followed by increases in Lyme disease cases in these areas. Southward expansion of northern populations of I. scapularis, for which the host questing behavior of the nymphal stage leads to substantially higher risk of human bites compared with southern populations, into Virginia and North Carolina also was followed by rising numbers of Lyme disease cases. Ongoing surveillance of ticks and tick-borne pathogens is essential to provide the data needed for studies that seek to evaluate the relative roles of land cover, tick hosts, and climate in explaining and predicting geographic expansion of ticks and tick-borne diseases.

Seasonal activity patterns of host-seeking Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) in Minnesota, 2015-2017

As the primary vector of Lyme disease spirochetes and several other medically significant pathogens, Ixodes scapularis presents a threat to public health in the United States. The incidence of Lyme disease is growing rapidly in upper midwestern states, particularly Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. The probability of a tick bite, acarological risk, is affected by the phenology of host-seeking I. scapularis. Phenology has been well-studied in northeastern states, but not in the Upper Midwest. We conducted biweekly drag sampling across 4 woodland sites in Minnesota between April and November from 2015 to 2017. The majority of ticks collected were I. scapularis (82%). Adults were active throughout our entire 8-month collection season, with sporadic activity during the summer, larger peaks in activity observed in April, and less consistent and lower peaks observed in October. Nymphs were most active from May through August, with continuing low-level activity in October, and peak activity most commonly observed in June. The observed nymphal peak corresponded with the typical peak in reported human Lyme disease and anaplasmosis cases. These findings are consistent with previous studies from the Upper Midwest and highlight a risk of human exposure to I. scapularis at least from April through November. This information may aid in communicating the seasonality of acarological risk for those living in Minnesota and other upper midwestern states as well as being relevant to the assessment of the ecoepidemiology of Lyme disease and the modeling of transmission dynamics.

Effects of Climate on the Variation in Abundance of Three Tick Species in Illinois

The range of ticks in North America has been steadily increasing likely, in part, due to climate change. Along with it, there has been a rise in cases of tick-borne disease. Among those medically important tick species of particular concern are Ixodes scapularis Say (Acari: Ixodidae), Dermacentor variabilis Say (Acari: Ixodidae), and Amblyomma americanum Linneaus (Acari: Ixodidae). The aim of this study was to determine if climate factors explain existing differences in abundance of the three aforementioned tick species between two climatically different regions of Illinois (Central and Southern), and if climate variables impact each species differently. We used both zero-inflated regression approaches and Bayesian network analyses to assess relationships among environmental variables and tick abundance. Results suggested that the maximum average temperature and total precipitation are associated with differential impact on species abundance and that this difference varied by region. Results also reinforced a differential level of resistance to desiccation among these tick species. Our findings help to further define risk periods of tick exposure for the general public, and reinforce the importance of responding to each tick species differently.

A Geographic Information System Approach to Map Tick Exposure Risk at a Scale for Public Health Intervention

Tick-borne disease control and prevention have been largely ineffective compared to the control of other vector-borne diseases. Although control strategies exist, they are costly or ineffective at large spatial scales. We need tools to target these strategies to places of highest tick exposure risk. Here we present a geographic information system (GIS) method for mapping predicted tick exposure risk at a 200 m by 200 m resolution, appropriate for public health intervention. We followed the approach used to map tick habitat suitability over large areas. We used drag-cloth sampling to measure the density of nymphal blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis, Say (Acari: Ixodidae)) at 24 sites in Addison and Rutland Counties, VT, United States. We used a GIS to average habitat, climatological, land-use/land-cover, and abiotic characteristics over 100 m, 400 m, 1,000 m, and 2,000 m buffers around each site to evaluate which characteristic at which buffer size best predicted density of nymphal ticks (DON). The relationships between predictor variables and DON were determined with random forest models. The 100 m buffer model performed best and explained 37.7% of the variation in DON, although was highly accurate at classifying sites as having below or above average DON. This model was applied to Addison County, VT, to predict tick exposure risk at a 200 m resolution. This GIS approach to map predicted DON over a small area with fine resolution, could be used to target public health campaigns and land management practices to reduce human exposure to ticks.

Crowdsourced Tick Image-Informed Updates to U.S. County Records of Three Medically Important Tick Species

Burgeoning cases of tick-borne disease present a significant public health problem in the United States. Passive tick surveillance gained traction as an effective way to collect epidemiologic data, and in particular, photograph-based tick surveillance can complement in-hand tick specimen identification to amass distribution data and related encounter demographics. We compared the Federal Information Processing Standards (FIPS) code of tick photos submitted to a free public identification service (TickSpotters) from 2014 to 2019 to published nationwide county reports for three tick species of medical concern: Ixodes scapularis Say (Ixodida: Ixodidae), Ixodes pacificus Cooley and Kohls (Ixodida: Ixodidae), and Amblyomma americanum Linneaus (Ixodida: Ixodidae). We tallied the number of TickSpotters submissions for each tick species according to "Reported" or "Established" criteria per county, and found that TickSpotters submissions represented more than half of the reported counties of documented occurrence, and potentially identified hundreds of new counties with the occurrence of these species. We detected the largest number of new county reports of I. scapularis presence in Michigan, North Carolina, and Texas. Tick image submissions revealed potentially nine new counties of occurrence for I. pacificus, and we documented the largest increase in new county reports of A. americanum in Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. These findings demonstrate the utility of crowdsourced photograph-based tick surveillance as a complement to other tick surveillance strategies in documenting tick distributions on a nationwide scale, its potential for identifying new foci, and its ability to highlight at-risk localities that might benefit from tick-bite prevention education.

Potential for online crowdsourced biological recording data to complement surveillance for arthropod vectors

Voluntary contributions by citizen scientists can gather large datasets covering wide geographical areas, and are increasingly utilized by researchers for multiple applications, including arthropod vector surveillance. Online platforms such as iNaturalist accumulate crowdsourced biological observations from around the world and these data could also be useful for monitoring vectors. The aim of this study was to explore the availability of observations of important vector taxa on the iNaturalist platform and examine the utility of these data to complement existing vector surveillance activities. Of ten vector taxa investigated, records were most numerous for mosquitoes (Culicidae; 23,018 records, 222 species) and ticks (Ixodida; 16,214 records, 87 species), with most data from 2019–2020. Case studies were performed to assess whether images associated with records were of sufficient quality to identify species and compare iNaturalist observations of vector species to the known situation at the state, national and regional level based on existing published data. Firstly, tick data collected at the national (United Kingdom) or state (Minnesota, USA) level were sufficient to determine seasonal occurrence and distribution patterns of important tick species, and were able to corroborate and complement known trends in tick distribution. Importantly, tick species with expanding distributions (Haemaphysalis punctata in the UK, and Amblyomma americanum in Minnesota) were also detected. Secondly, using iNaturalist data to monitor expanding tick species in Europe (Hyalomma spp.) and the USA (Haemaphysalis longicornis), and invasive Aedes mosquitoes in Europe, showed potential for tracking these species within their known range as well as identifying possible areas of expansion. Despite known limitations associated with crowdsourced data, this study shows that iNaturalist can be a valuable source of information on vector distribution and seasonality that could be used to supplement existing vector surveillance data, especially at a time when many surveillance programs may have been interrupted by COVID-19 restrictions.

Crowdsourced Photographs as an Effective Method for Large-Scale Passive Tick Surveillance

As tick vector ranges expand and the number of tickborne disease cases rise, physicians, veterinarians, and the public are faced with diagnostic, treatment, and prevention challenges. Traditional methods of active surveillance (e.g., flagging) can be time-consuming, spatially limited, and costly, while passive surveillance can broadly monitor tick distributions and infection rates. However, laboratory testing can require service fees in addition to mailing and processing time, which can put a tick-bite victim outside the window of potential prophylactic options or under unnecessary antibiotic administration. We performed a retrospective analysis of a national photograph-based crowdsourced tick surveillance system to determine the accuracy of identifying ticks by photograph when compared to those same ticks identified by microscopy and molecular methods at a tick testing laboratory. Ticks identified by photograph were correct to species with an overall accuracy of 96.7% (CI: 0.9522, 0.9781; P < 0.001), while identification accuracy for Ixodes scapularis Say (Ixodida: Ixodidae), Amblyomma americanum Linnaeus (Ixodida: Ixodidae), and Dermacentor variabilis Say (Ixodida: Ixodidae), three ticks of medical importance, was 98.2% (Cohen's kappa [κ] = 0.9575; 95% CI: 0.9698, 0.9897), 98.8% (κ = 0.9466, 95% CI: 0.9776, 0.9941), and 98.8% (κ = 0.9515, 95% CI: 0.9776, 0.9941), respectively. Fitted generalized linear models revealed that tick species and stage were the most significant predictive factors that contributed to correct photograph-based tick identifications. Neither engorgement, season, nor location of submission affected identification ability. These results provide strong support for the utility of photograph-based tick surveillance as a tool for risk assessment and monitoring among commonly encountered ticks of medical concern.

Effect of Rising Temperature on Lyme Disease: Ixodes scapularis Population Dynamics and Borrelia burgdorferi Transmission and Prevalence

Warmer temperatures are expected to increase the incidence of Lyme disease through enhanced tick maturation rates and a longer season of transmission. In addition, there could be an increased risk of disease export because of infected mobile hosts, usually birds. A temperature-driven seasonal model of Borrelia burgdorferi (Lyme disease) transmission among four host types is constructed as a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. The model is developed and parametrized based on a collection of lab and field studies. The model is shown to produce biologically reasonable results for both the tick vector (Ixodes scapularis) and the hosts when compared to a different set of studies. The model is used to predict the response of Lyme disease risk to a mean annual temperature increase, based on current temperature cycles in Hanover, NH. Many of the risk measures suggested by the literature are shown to change with increased mean annual temperature. The most straightforward measure of disease risk is the abundance of infected questing ticks, averaged over a year. Compared to this measure, which is difficult and resource-intensive to track in the field, all other risk measures considered underestimate the rise of risk with rise in mean annual temperature. The measure coming closest was “degree days above zero.” Disease prevalence in ticks and hosts showed less increase with rising temperature. Single field measurements at the height of transmission season did not show much change at all with rising temperature.

Protozoan Parasite Babesia microti Subverts Adaptive Immunity and Enhances Lyme Disease Severity

Lyme disease is the most prominent tick-borne disease in the United States. Co-infections with the tick-transmitted pathogens Babesia microti and Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto are becoming a serious health problem. B. burgdorferi is an extracellular spirochete that causes Lyme disease while B. microti is a protozoan that infects erythrocytes and causes babesiosis. Testing of donated blood for Babesia species is not currently mandatory due to unavailability of an FDA approved test. Transmission of this protozoan by blood transfusion often results in high morbidity and mortality in recipients. Infection of C3H/HeJ mice with B. burgdorferi and B. microti individually results in inflammatory Lyme disease and display of human babesiosis-like symptoms, respectively. Here we use this mouse model to provide a detailed investigation of the reciprocal influence of the two pathogens on each other during co-infection. We show that B. burgdorferi infection attenuates parasitemia in mice while B. microti subverts the splenic immune response, such that a marked decrease in splenic B and T cells, reduction in antibody levels and diminished functional humoral immunity, as determined by spirochete opsonophagocytosis, are observed in co-infected mice compared to only B. burgdorferi infected mice. Furthermore, immunosuppression by B. microti in co-infected mice showed an association with enhanced Lyme disease manifestations. This study demonstrates the effect of only simultaneous infection by B. burgdorferi and B. microti on each pathogen, immune response and on disease manifestations with respect to infection by the spirochete and the parasite. In our future studies, we will examine the overall effects of sequential infection by these pathogens on host immune responses and disease outcomes.

Prevalence and distribution of seven human pathogens in host-seeking Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) nymphs in Minnesota, USA

In the north-central United States, the blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis) is currently known to vector seven human pathogens. These include five bacteria (Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto, Borrelia mayonii, Borrelia miyamotoi, Anaplasma phagocytophilum, Ehrlichia muris eauclairensis), one protozoan (Babesia microti) and one virus (Powassan). We sought to assess the prevalence and distribution of these pathogens in host-seeking nymphs collected throughout Minnesota, a state on the northwestern edge of the tick's expanding range, where reported cases of I. scapularis-borne diseases have increased in incidence and geographic range over the past decade. Among the 1240 host-seeking I. scapularis nymphs that we screened from 64 sites, we detected all seven pathogens at varying frequencies. Borrelia burgdorferi s.s. was the most prevalent and geographically widespread, found in 25.24% of all nymphs tested. Anaplasma phagocytophilum and Babesia microti were also geographically widespread, but they were less prevalent than Bo. burgdorferi s.s. (detected in 6.29% and 4.68% of ticks, respectively). Spatial clusters of sites with high prevalence for these three pathogens were identified in the north-central region of the state. Prevalence was less than 1.29% for each of the remaining pathogens. Two or more pathogens were detected in 90 nymphs (7.26%); coinfections with Bo. burgdorferi s.s. and either A. phagocytophilum (51 nymphs, 4.11%) or Ba. microti (43 nymphs, 3.47%) were the most common combinations. The distribution and density of infected ticks mirrors the distribution of notifiable tick-borne diseases in Minnesota and provides information on the distribution and prevalence of recently described human pathogens.