1
|
Post LA, Wu SA, Soetikno AG, Ozer EA, Liu Y, Welch SB, Hawkins C, Moss CB, Murphy RL, Mason M, Havey RJ, Lundberg AL. Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in Latin America and the Caribbean: Longitudinal Trend Analysis. JMIR Public Health Surveill 2024; 10:e44398. [PMID: 38568194 PMCID: PMC11129782 DOI: 10.2196/44398] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/06/2023] [Revised: 03/12/2024] [Accepted: 03/20/2024] [Indexed: 05/18/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND In May 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic, with over 40% of worldwide COVID-19-related deaths at the time. This high disease burden was a result of the unique circumstances in LAC. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to (1) measure whether the pandemic was expanding or contracting in LAC when the WHO declared the end of COVID-19 as a public health emergency of international concern on May 5, 2023; (2) use dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history; and (3) provide, with a focus on prevention policies, a historical context for the course of the pandemic in the region. METHODS In addition to updates of traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study, we used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern (VOCs). We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Additionally, we conducted a 1-sided t test for whether the regional weekly speed (rate of novel COVID-19 transmission) was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data across the period from August 2020 to May 2023. RESULTS The speed of pandemic spread for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for 6 months by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. Although the 1- and 7-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant for the 120-day period ending on the week of May 5, 2023, the coefficients were relatively modest in magnitude (0.457 and 0.491, respectively). Furthermore, the shift parameters for either of the 2 most recent weeks around May 5, 2023, did not indicate any change in this clustering effect of cases on future cases. From December 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant VOC in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t test of speed=10 became entirely insignificant from January 2023 onward. CONCLUSIONS Although COVID-19 continues to circulate in LAC, surveillance data suggest COVID-19 is endemic in the region and no longer reaches the threshold of the pandemic definition. However, the region experienced a high COVID-19 burden in the early stages of the pandemic, and prevention policies should be an immediate focus in future pandemics. Ahead of vaccination development, these policies can include widespread testing of individuals and an epidemiological task force with a contact-tracing system.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Lori Ann Post
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Scott A Wu
- Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Alan G Soetikno
- Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Egon A Ozer
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Center for Pathogen Genomics and Microbial Evolution, Robert J Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Yingxuan Liu
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Sarah B Welch
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Claudia Hawkins
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Center for Global Communicable and Emerging Infectious Diseases, Robert J Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Charles B Moss
- Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States
| | - Robert L Murphy
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Robert J Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Maryann Mason
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Robert J Havey
- Robert J Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Department of Medicine, General Internal Medicine and Geriatrics, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Alexander L Lundberg
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Kurita J, Iwasaki Y. Effect of Long-Distance Domestic Travel Ban Policies in Japan on COVID-19 Outbreak Dynamics During Dominance of the Ancestral Strain: Ex Post Facto Retrospective Observation Study. Online J Public Health Inform 2024; 16:e44931. [PMID: 38648635 PMCID: PMC11037452 DOI: 10.2196/44931] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/19/2022] [Revised: 09/08/2023] [Accepted: 12/27/2023] [Indexed: 04/25/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND In Japan, long-distance domestic travel was banned while the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 strain was dominant under the first declared state of emergency from March 2020 until the end of May 2020. Subsequently, the "Go To Travel" campaign travel subsidy policy was activated, allowing long-distance domestic travel, until the second state of emergency as of January 7, 2021. The effects of this long-distance domestic travel ban on SARS-CoV-2 infectivity have not been adequately evaluated. OBJECTIVE We evaluated the effects of the long-distance domestic travel ban in Japan on SARS-CoV-2 infectivity, considering climate conditions, mobility, and countermeasures such as the "Go To Travel" campaign and emergency status. METHODS We calculated the effective reproduction number R(t), representing infectivity, using the epidemic curve in Kagoshima prefecture based on the empirical distribution of the incubation period and procedurally delayed reporting from an earlier study. Kagoshima prefecture, in southern Japan, has several resorts, with an airport commonly used for transportation to Tokyo or Osaka. We regressed R(t) on the number of long-distance domestic travelers (based on the number of airport limousine bus users provided by the operating company), temperature, humidity, mobility, and countermeasures such as state of emergency declarations and the "Go To Travel" campaign in Kagoshima. The study period was June 20, 2020, through February 2021, before variant strains became dominant. A second state of emergency was not declared in Kagoshima prefecture but was declared in major cities such as Tokyo and Osaka. RESULTS Estimation results indicated a pattern of declining infectivity with reduced long-distance domestic travel volumes as measured by the number of airport limousine bus users. Moreover, infectivity was lower during the "Go To Travel" campaign and the second state of emergency. Regarding mobility, going to restaurants, shopping malls, and amusement venues was associated with increased infectivity. However, going to grocery stores and pharmacies was associated with decreased infectivity. Climate conditions showed no significant association with infectivity patterns. CONCLUSIONS The results of this retrospective analysis suggest that the volume of long-distance domestic travel might reduce SARS-CoV-2 infectivity. Infectivity was lower during the "Go To Travel" campaign period, during which long-distance domestic travel was promoted, compared to that outside this campaign period. These findings suggest that policies banning long-distance domestic travel had little legitimacy or rationale. Long-distance domestic travel with appropriate infection control measures might not increase SARS-CoV-2 infectivity in tourist areas. Even though this analysis was performed much later than the study period, if we had performed this study focusing on the period of April or May 2021, it would likely yield the same results. These findings might be helpful for government decision-making in considering restarting a "Go To Travel" campaign in light of evidence-based policy.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Junko Kurita
- Department of Nursing, Faculty of Sports & Health Science, Daitobunka University, Higashimatsuyama-shi, Japan
| | | |
Collapse
|
3
|
Dolezel M, Smutny Z. Adoption of a COVID-19 Contact Tracing App by Czech Youth: Cross-Cultural Replication Study. JMIR Hum Factors 2023; 10:e45481. [PMID: 37971804 PMCID: PMC10655852 DOI: 10.2196/45481] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/03/2023] [Revised: 06/09/2023] [Accepted: 08/12/2023] [Indexed: 11/19/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND During the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic crisis, the role of digital contact tracing (DCT) intensified. However, the uptake of this technology expectedly differed among age cohorts and national cultures. Various conceptual tools were introduced to strengthen DCT research from a theoretical perspective. However, little has been done to compare theory-supported findings across different cultural contexts and age cohorts. OBJECTIVE Building on the original study conducted in Belgium in April 2020 and theoretically underpinned by the Health Belief Model (HBM), this study attempted to confirm the predictors of DCT adoption in a cultural environment different from the original setting, that is, the Czech Republic. In addition, by using brief qualitative evidence, it aimed to shed light on the possible limitations of the HBM in the examined context and to propose certain extensions of the HBM. METHODS A Czech version of the original instrument was administered to a convenience sample of young (aged 18-29 y) Czech adults in November 2020. After filtering, 519 valid responses were obtained and included in the quantitative data analysis, which used structural equation modeling and followed the proposed structure of the relationships among the HBM constructs. Furthermore, a qualitative thematic analysis of the free-text answers was conducted to provide additional insights about the model's validity in the given context. RESULTS The proposed measurement model exhibited less optimal fit (root mean square error of approximation=0.065, 90% CI 0.060-0.070) than in the original study (root mean square error of approximation=0.036, 90% CI 0.033-0.039). Nevertheless, perceived benefits and perceived barriers were confirmed as the main, statistically significant predictors of DCT uptake, consistent with the original study (β=.60, P<.001 and β=-.39; P<.001, respectively). Differently from the original study, self-efficacy was not a significant predictor in the strict statistical sense (β=.12; P=.003). In addition, qualitative analysis demonstrated that in the given cohort, perceived barriers was the most frequent theme (166/354, 46.9% of total codes). Under this category, psychological fears and concerns was a subtheme, notably diverging from the original operationalization of the perceived barriers construct. In a similar sense, a role for social influence in DCT uptake processes was suggested by some respondents (12/354, 1.7% of total codes). In summary, the quantitative and qualitative results indicated that the proposed quantitative model seemed to be of limited value in the examined context. CONCLUSIONS Future studies should focus on reconceptualizing the 2 underperforming constructs (ie, perceived severity and cues to action) by considering the qualitative findings. This study also provided actionable insights for policy makers and app developers to mitigate DCT adoption issues in the event of a future pandemic caused by unknown viral agents.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Michal Dolezel
- Faculty of Informatics and Statistics, Prague University of Economics and Business, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Zdenek Smutny
- Faculty of Informatics and Statistics, Prague University of Economics and Business, Prague, Czech Republic
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Wu Y, Shi A, Chen L, Su D. Differential COVID-19 preventive behaviors among Asian subgroups in the United States. Expert Rev Respir Med 2023; 17:1049-1059. [PMID: 38018378 DOI: 10.1080/17476348.2023.2289527] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/28/2023] [Accepted: 11/27/2023] [Indexed: 11/30/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Given the observed within-Asian disparity in COVID-19 incidence, we aimed to explore the differential preventive behaviors among Asian subgroups in the United States. METHODS Based on data from the Asian subsample (N = 982) of the 2020 Health, Ethnicity, and Pandemic survey, we estimated the weighted proportion of noncompliance with Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidelines on preventive behaviors and COVID-19 testing by Asian subgroups (Asian Indian, Chinese, Filipino, Japanese, Korean, Vietnamese, Other Asian). We examined these subgroup differences after adjusting for demographic factors and state-level clustering. RESULTS Filipinos demonstrated the lowest rate of noncompliance for mask-wearing, social distancing, and handwashing. As compared with the Filipinos, our logistic models showed that the Chinese and the 'other Asians' subgroup had significantly higher risk of noncompliance with mask-wearing, while the Japanese, the Vietnamese, and other Asians were significantly more likely to report noncompliance with social distancing. CONCLUSIONS The significant variation of preventive behavior across Asian subgroups signals the necessity of data disaggregation when it comes to understanding the health behavior of Asian Americans, which is critical for future pandemic preparedness. The excess behavioral risk among certain Asian subgroups (especially those 'other Asians') warrants further investigation and interventions about the driving forces behind these disparities.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- YuJing Wu
- Department of Internal Medicine, Hangzhou Red Cross Hospital, Hangzhou, China
| | - Ahan Shi
- Independent researcher, Daniel High School Central, South Carolina, USA
| | - Laite Chen
- National Clinical Research Center for Ocular Diseases, Eye Hospital, Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, China
| | - Dejun Su
- Department of Health Promotion, University of Nebraska Medical Center, Nebraska, NE, USA
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Ashraf MA, Nawaz M, Asif A, Ali MA, Mehmood A, Aziz MW, Shabbir MZ, Mukhtar N, Shabbir MAB, Raza S, Yaqub T. Temporal study of wastewater surveillance from September 2020 to March 2021: an estimation of COVID-19 patients in Lahore, Pakistan. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2023; 30:80855-80862. [PMID: 37308626 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-023-28041-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/21/2023] [Accepted: 05/29/2023] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
The first aim of study was to quantify the viral load in the wastewater samples by RT-qPCR testing in Lahore population to estimate the number of patients affected and predict the next resurgence of COVID-19 wave in the city. The second aim of the study was to determine the hotspot areas of Lahore which remained positive more often for virus with high viral load. In this study, n = 420 sewage samples were collected on an average of two weeks intervals from 30 different sewage water disposal stations (14 sampling events) from Sept 2020 to March 2021. RNA was extracted and quantified by RT-qPCR without concentrating the virus in samples. Number of positive disposal sites (7-93%), viral load from sewage samples (100.296 to 103.034), and estimated patients (660-17,030) ranged from low to high according to the surge and restrain of 2nd and 3rd COVID-19 waves in the country. The viral load and estimated patients were reported high in January 2021 and March 2021 which were similar to the peak of 2nd and 3rd waves in Pakistan. Site 18 (Niaz Baig village DS) showed the highest viral load among all sites. Findings of the present study helped to estimate the number of patients and track the resurgence in COVID-19 waves in Lahore particularly, and in Punjab generally. Furthermore, it emphasizes the role of wastewater-based epidemiology to help policymakers strengthen the quarantine measures along with immunization to overcome enteric viral diseases. Local and national stake holders should work in collaboration to improve the environmental hygiene to control the disease.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Muhammad Adnan Ashraf
- Institute of Microbiology, University of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Lahore, 54000, Pakistan
| | - Muhammad Nawaz
- Institute of Microbiology, University of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Lahore, 54000, Pakistan.
| | - Ali Asif
- Institute of Microbiology, University of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Lahore, 54000, Pakistan
| | - Muhammad Asad Ali
- Institute of Microbiology, University of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Lahore, 54000, Pakistan
| | - Adnan Mehmood
- Institute of Microbiology, University of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Lahore, 54000, Pakistan
| | - Muhammad Waqar Aziz
- Institute of Microbiology, University of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Lahore, 54000, Pakistan
| | - Muhammad Zubair Shabbir
- Institute of Microbiology, University of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Lahore, 54000, Pakistan
| | - Nadia Mukhtar
- Institute of Microbiology, University of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Lahore, 54000, Pakistan
| | | | - Sohail Raza
- Institute of Microbiology, University of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Lahore, 54000, Pakistan
| | - Tahir Yaqub
- Institute of Microbiology, University of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Lahore, 54000, Pakistan
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Trigo-Tasende N, Vallejo JA, Rumbo-Feal S, Conde-Pérez K, Vaamonde M, López-Oriona Á, Barbeito I, Nasser-Ali M, Reif R, Rodiño-Janeiro BK, Fernández-Álvarez E, Iglesias-Corrás I, Freire B, Tarrío-Saavedra J, Tomás L, Gallego-García P, Posada D, Bou G, López-de-Ullibarri I, Cao R, Ladra S, Poza M. Wastewater early warning system for SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks and variants in a Coruña, Spain. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2023:10.1007/s11356-023-27877-3. [PMID: 37286834 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-023-27877-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/06/2023] [Accepted: 05/19/2023] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Wastewater-based epidemiology has been widely used as a cost-effective method for tracking the COVID-19 pandemic at the community level. Here we describe COVIDBENS, a wastewater surveillance program running from June 2020 to March 2022 in the wastewater treatment plant of Bens in A Coruña (Spain). The main goal of this work was to provide an effective early warning tool based in wastewater epidemiology to help in decision-making at both the social and public health levels. RT-qPCR procedures and Illumina sequencing were used to weekly monitor the viral load and to detect SARS-CoV-2 mutations in wastewater, respectively. In addition, own statistical models were applied to estimate the real number of infected people and the frequency of each emerging variant circulating in the community, which considerable improved the surveillance strategy. Our analysis detected 6 viral load waves in A Coruña with concentrations between 103 and 106 SARS-CoV-2 RNA copies/L. Our system was able to anticipate community outbreaks during the pandemic with 8-36 days in advance with respect to clinical reports and, to detect the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants in A Coruña such as Alpha (B.1.1.7), Delta (B.1.617.2), and Omicron (B.1.1.529 and BA.2) in wastewater with 42, 30, and 27 days, respectively, before the health system did. Data generated here helped local authorities and health managers to give a faster and more efficient response to the pandemic situation, and also allowed important industrial companies to adapt their production to each situation. The wastewater-based epidemiology program developed in our metropolitan area of A Coruña (Spain) during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic served as a powerful early warning system combining statistical models with mutations and viral load monitoring in wastewater over time.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Noelia Trigo-Tasende
- University of A Coruña (UDC) - Microbiome and Health group (meiGAbiome), Institute of Biomedical Research (INIBIC) - University Hospital of A Coruña (CHUAC) - Interdisciplinary Center for Chemistry and Biology (CICA) - Spanish Network for Infectious Diseases (CIBERINFEC-ISCIII), Campus da Zapateira, 15008, A Coruña, Spain
| | - Juan A Vallejo
- University of A Coruña (UDC) - Microbiome and Health group (meiGAbiome), Institute of Biomedical Research (INIBIC) - University Hospital of A Coruña (CHUAC) - Interdisciplinary Center for Chemistry and Biology (CICA) - Spanish Network for Infectious Diseases (CIBERINFEC-ISCIII), Campus da Zapateira, 15008, A Coruña, Spain
| | - Soraya Rumbo-Feal
- University of A Coruña (UDC) - Microbiome and Health group (meiGAbiome), Institute of Biomedical Research (INIBIC) - University Hospital of A Coruña (CHUAC) - Interdisciplinary Center for Chemistry and Biology (CICA) - Spanish Network for Infectious Diseases (CIBERINFEC-ISCIII), Campus da Zapateira, 15008, A Coruña, Spain
| | - Kelly Conde-Pérez
- University of A Coruña (UDC) - Microbiome and Health group (meiGAbiome), Institute of Biomedical Research (INIBIC) - University Hospital of A Coruña (CHUAC) - Interdisciplinary Center for Chemistry and Biology (CICA) - Spanish Network for Infectious Diseases (CIBERINFEC-ISCIII), Campus da Zapateira, 15008, A Coruña, Spain
| | - Manuel Vaamonde
- Research Group MODES, Research Center for Information and Communication Technologies (CITIC), University of A Coruña (UDC), Campus de Elviña, 15071 , A Coruña, Spain
| | - Ángel López-Oriona
- Research Group MODES, Research Center for Information and Communication Technologies (CITIC), University of A Coruña (UDC), Campus de Elviña, 15071 , A Coruña, Spain
| | - Inés Barbeito
- Research Group MODES, Research Center for Information and Communication Technologies (CITIC), University of A Coruña (UDC), Campus de Elviña, 15071 , A Coruña, Spain
| | - Mohammed Nasser-Ali
- University of A Coruña (UDC) - Microbiome and Health group (meiGAbiome), Institute of Biomedical Research (INIBIC) - University Hospital of A Coruña (CHUAC) - Interdisciplinary Center for Chemistry and Biology (CICA) - Spanish Network for Infectious Diseases (CIBERINFEC-ISCIII), Campus da Zapateira, 15008, A Coruña, Spain
| | - Rubén Reif
- Center for Research in Biological Chemistry and Molecular Materials (CiQUS), University of Santiago de Compostela (USC), 15782, Santiago de Compostela, Spain
| | - Bruno K Rodiño-Janeiro
- BFlow, University of Santiago de Compostela (USC) and Health Research Institute of Santiago de Compostela (IDIS), Campus Vida, 15706, Santiago de Compostela, A Coruña, Spain
| | - Elisa Fernández-Álvarez
- University of A Coruña (UDC), Research Center for Information and Communication Technologies (CITIC), Database Laboratory, Campus de Elviña, 15071, A Coruña, Spain
| | - Iago Iglesias-Corrás
- University of A Coruña (UDC), Research Center for Information and Communication Technologies (CITIC), Database Laboratory, Campus de Elviña, 15071, A Coruña, Spain
| | - Borja Freire
- University of A Coruña (UDC), Research Center for Information and Communication Technologies (CITIC), Database Laboratory, Campus de Elviña, 15071, A Coruña, Spain
| | - Javier Tarrío-Saavedra
- Research Group MODES, Research Center for Information and Communication Technologies (CITIC), University of A Coruña (UDC), Campus de Elviña, 15071 , A Coruña, Spain
| | - Laura Tomás
- CINBIO, Universidade de Vigo, 36310, Vigo, Spain
- Galicia Sur Health Research Institute (IIS Galicia Sur), SERGAS-UVIGO, 36312, Vigo, Spain
| | - Pilar Gallego-García
- CINBIO, Universidade de Vigo, 36310, Vigo, Spain
- Galicia Sur Health Research Institute (IIS Galicia Sur), SERGAS-UVIGO, 36312, Vigo, Spain
| | - David Posada
- CINBIO, Universidade de Vigo, 36310, Vigo, Spain
- Galicia Sur Health Research Institute (IIS Galicia Sur), SERGAS-UVIGO, 36312, Vigo, Spain
- Department of Biochemistry, Genetics, and Immunology, Universidade de Vigo, 36310, Vigo, Spain
| | - Germán Bou
- University of A Coruña (UDC) - Microbiome and Health group (meiGAbiome), Institute of Biomedical Research (INIBIC) - University Hospital of A Coruña (CHUAC) - Interdisciplinary Center for Chemistry and Biology (CICA) - Spanish Network for Infectious Diseases (CIBERINFEC-ISCIII), Campus da Zapateira, 15008, A Coruña, Spain
| | - Ignacio López-de-Ullibarri
- Research Group MODES, Research Center for Information and Communication Technologies (CITIC), University of A Coruña (UDC), Campus de Elviña, 15071 , A Coruña, Spain
| | - Ricardo Cao
- Research Group MODES, Research Center for Information and Communication Technologies (CITIC), University of A Coruña (UDC), Campus de Elviña, 15071 , A Coruña, Spain
| | - Susana Ladra
- University of A Coruña (UDC), Research Center for Information and Communication Technologies (CITIC), Database Laboratory, Campus de Elviña, 15071, A Coruña, Spain
| | - Margarita Poza
- University of A Coruña (UDC) - Microbiome and Health group (meiGAbiome), Institute of Biomedical Research (INIBIC) - University Hospital of A Coruña (CHUAC) - Interdisciplinary Center for Chemistry and Biology (CICA) - Spanish Network for Infectious Diseases (CIBERINFEC-ISCIII), Campus da Zapateira, 15008, A Coruña, Spain.
| |
Collapse
|
7
|
Zhang Z, Fu D, Wang J. How containment policy and medical service impact COVID-19 transmission: A cross-national comparison among China, the USA, and Sweden. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION : IJDRR 2023; 91:103685. [PMID: 37069850 PMCID: PMC10088288 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103685] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/02/2022] [Revised: 01/31/2023] [Accepted: 04/08/2023] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
As COVID-19 shows a heterogeneous spreading process globally, investigating factors associated with COVID-19 spreading among different countries will provide information for containment strategy and medical service decisions. A significant challenge for analyzing how these factors impact COVID-19 transmission is assessing key epidemiological parameters and how they change under different containment strategies across different nations. This paper builds a COVID-19 spread simulation model to estimate the core COVID-19 epidemiological parameters. Then, the correlation between these core COVID-19 epidemiological parameters and the times of publicly announced interventions is analyzed, including three typical countries, China (strictly containment), the USA (moderately control), and Sweden (loose control). Results show that the recovery rate leads to a distinct COVID-19 transmission process in the three countries, as all three countries finally have similar and close to zero spreading rates in the third period of COVID-19 transmission. Then, an epidemic fundamental diagram between COVID-19 "active infections" and "current patients" is discovered, which could plan a country's COVID-19 medical capacity and containment strategies when combined with the COVID-19 spreading simulation model. Based on that, the hypothetical policies are proved effectively, which will give support for future infectious diseases.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Zhao Zhang
- School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing, 100191, China
| | - Daocheng Fu
- School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing, 100191, China
| | - Jinghua Wang
- School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing, 100191, China
| |
Collapse
|
8
|
Belmonte-Lopes R, Barquilha CER, Kozak C, Barcellos DS, Leite BZ, da Costa FJOG, Martins WL, Oliveira PE, Pereira EHRA, Filho CRM, de Souza EM, Possetti GRC, Vicente VA, Etchepare RG. 20-Month monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater of Curitiba, in Southern Brazil. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2023:10.1007/s11356-023-27926-x. [PMID: 37243767 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-023-27926-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/09/2023] [Accepted: 05/22/2023] [Indexed: 05/29/2023]
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the collapse of healthcare systems and led to the development and application of several approaches of wastewater-based epidemiology to monitor infected populations. The main objective of this study was to carry out a SARS-CoV-2 wastewater based surveillance in Curitiba, Southern Brazil Sewage samples were collected weekly for 20 months at the entrance of five treatment plants representing the entire city and quantified by qPCR using the N1 marker. The viral loads were correlated with epidemiological data. The correlation by sampling points showed that the relationship between the viral loads and the number of reported cases was best described by a cross-correlation function, indicating a lag between 7 and 14 days amidst the variables, whereas the data for the entire city presented a higher correlation (0.84) with the number of positive tests at lag 0 (sampling day). The results also suggest that the Omicron VOC resulted in higher titers than the Delta VOC. Overall, our results showed that the approach used was robust as an early warning system, even with the use of different epidemiological indicators or changes in the virus variants in circulation. Therefore, it can contribute to public decision-makers and health interventions, especially in vulnerable and low-income regions with limited clinical testing capacity. Looking toward the future, this approach will contribute to a new look at environmental sanitation and should even induce an increase in sewage coverage rates in emerging countries.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Ricardo Belmonte-Lopes
- Graduate Program On Pathology, Parasitology, and Microbiology, Federal University of Paraná, 100 Coronel Francisco Heráclito Dos Santos Avenue, Curitiba, PR, 81530-000, Brazil
- Basic Pathology Department, Biological Sciences Sector, Microbiological Collections of Paraná Network, Room 135/136. 100 Coronel Francisco Heráclito Dos Santos Avenue, Curitiba, PR, 81530-000, Brazil
- Basic Pathology Department, Federal University of Paraná, 100 Coronel Francisco Heráclito Dos Santos Avenue, Curitiba, PR, 81530-000, Brazil
| | - Carlos E R Barquilha
- Graduate Program On Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, Hydraulics and Sanitation Department, Federal University of Paraná, 100 Coronel Francisco Heráclito Dos Santos Avenue, Curitiba, PR, 81530-000, Brazil
- Hydraulics and Sanitation Department, Federal University of Paraná, 100 Coronel Francisco Heráclito Dos Santos Avenue, Curitiba, PR, 81530-000, Brazil
| | - Caroline Kozak
- Environment Department, Maringa State University, SESI Block, 1800 Ângelo Moreira da Fonseca AvenueRoom 15, Parque Danielle, Umuarama, PR, 87506-370, Brazil
| | - Demian S Barcellos
- Hydraulics and Sanitation Department, Federal University of Paraná, 100 Coronel Francisco Heráclito Dos Santos Avenue, Curitiba, PR, 81530-000, Brazil
| | - Bárbara Z Leite
- Research and Innovation Management, Paraná Sanitation Company (SANEPAR), 1376 Eng. Rebouças St, Rebouças, Curitiba, PR, 80215-900, Brazil
| | - Fernanda J O Gomes da Costa
- Research and Innovation Management, Paraná Sanitation Company (SANEPAR), 1376 Eng. Rebouças St, Rebouças, Curitiba, PR, 80215-900, Brazil
| | - William L Martins
- Basic Pathology Department, Federal University of Paraná, 100 Coronel Francisco Heráclito Dos Santos Avenue, Curitiba, PR, 81530-000, Brazil
| | - Pâmela E Oliveira
- Hydraulics and Sanitation Department, Federal University of Paraná, 100 Coronel Francisco Heráclito Dos Santos Avenue, Curitiba, PR, 81530-000, Brazil
| | - Edy H R A Pereira
- Hydraulics and Sanitation Department, Federal University of Paraná, 100 Coronel Francisco Heráclito Dos Santos Avenue, Curitiba, PR, 81530-000, Brazil
| | - Cesar R Mota Filho
- Sanitary and Environmental Engineering Department, Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), 6627 Antonio Carlos Avenue, Block 1, Room 4529, Belo Horizonte, MG, 31270-901, Brazil
| | - Emanuel M de Souza
- Biochemistry and Molecular Biology Department, Federal University of Paraná, 100 Coronel Francisco Heráclito Dos Santos Avenue, Curitiba, PR, 81530-000, Brazil
| | - Gustavo R C Possetti
- Research and Innovation Management, Paraná Sanitation Company (SANEPAR), 1376 Eng. Rebouças St, Rebouças, Curitiba, PR, 80215-900, Brazil
| | - Vania A Vicente
- Basic Pathology Department, Biological Sciences Sector, Microbiological Collections of Paraná Network, Room 135/136. 100 Coronel Francisco Heráclito Dos Santos Avenue, Curitiba, PR, 81530-000, Brazil
- Basic Pathology Department, Federal University of Paraná, 100 Coronel Francisco Heráclito Dos Santos Avenue, Curitiba, PR, 81530-000, Brazil
| | - Ramiro G Etchepare
- Hydraulics and Sanitation Department, Federal University of Paraná, 100 Coronel Francisco Heráclito Dos Santos Avenue, Curitiba, PR, 81530-000, Brazil.
| |
Collapse
|
9
|
Coccia M. High potential of technology to face new respiratory viruses: mechanical ventilation devices for effective healthcare to next pandemic emergencies. TECHNOLOGY IN SOCIETY 2023; 73:102233. [PMID: 36993793 PMCID: PMC10028215 DOI: 10.1016/j.techsoc.2023.102233] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/22/2022] [Revised: 03/14/2023] [Accepted: 03/15/2023] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
Some countries in the presence of unforeseen Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), have experienced lower total deaths, though higher numbers of COVID-19 related infections. Results here suggest that one of the explanations is the critical role of ventilator technology in clinical health environment to cope with the initial stage of COVID-19 pandemic crisis. Statistical evidence shows that a large number of ventilators or breathing devices in countries (26.76 units per 100,000 inhabitants) is associated with a fatality rate of 1.44% (December 2020), whereas a higher fatality rate given by 2.46% is in nations with lower numbers of ventilator devices (10.38 average units per 100,000 people). These findings suggest that a large number of medical ventilators in clinical setting has a high potential for more efficient healthcare and improves the effective preparedness of crisis management to cope with new respiratory pandemic diseases in society. Hence, a forward-thinking and technology-oriented strategy in healthcare sector, based on investments in high-tech ventilator devices and other new medical technologies, can help clinicians deliver effective care and reduce negative effects of present and future respiratory infectious diseases, in particular when new drugs and appropriate treatments are missing in clinical environment to face unknown respiratory viral agents .
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Mario Coccia
- CNR -- National Research Council of Italy, Research Area of the National Research Council, Strada delle Cacce, 73-10135, Turin, Italy
| |
Collapse
|
10
|
Neisi A, Goudarzi G, Mohammadi MJ, Tahmasebi Y, Rahim F, Baboli Z, Yazdani M, Sorooshian A, Attar SA, Angali KA, Alam K, Ahmadian M, Farhadi M. Association of the corona virus (Covid-19) epidemic with environmental risk factors. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2023; 30:60314-60325. [PMID: 37022543 PMCID: PMC10078041 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-023-26647-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/18/2022] [Accepted: 03/20/2023] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
The current outbreak of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (coronavirus disease 2019; previously 2019-nCoV), epicenter in Hubei Province (Wuhan), People's Republic of China, has spread too many other countries. The transmission of the corona virus occurs when people are in the incubation stage and do not have any symptoms. Therefore, the role of environmental factors such as temperature and wind speed becomes very important. The study of Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) indicates that there is a significant relationship between temperature and virus transmission and three important factors, namely temperature, humidity and wind speed, cause SARS transmission. Daily data on the incidence and mortality of Covid-19 disease were collected from World Health Organization (WHO) website and World Meter website (WMW) for several major cities in Iran and the world. Data were collected from February 2020 to September 2021. Meteorological data including temperature, air pressure, wind speed, dew point and air quality index (AQI) index are extracted from the website of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor. Statistical analysis carried out for significance relationships. The correlation coefficient between the number of infected people in one day and the environmental variables in the countries was different from each other. The relationship between AQI and number of infected was significant in all cities. In Canberra, Madrid and Paris, a significant inverse relationship was observed between the number of infected people in one day and wind speed. There is a significant positive relationship between the number of infected people in a day and the dew point in the cities of Canberra, Wellington and Washington. The relationship between the number of infected people in one day and Pressure was significantly reversed in Madrid and Washington, but positive in Canberra, Brasilia, Paris and Wuhan. There was significant relationship between Dew point and prevalence. Wind speed showed a significant relationship in USA, Madrid and Paris. AQI was strongly associated with the prevalence of covid19. The purpose of this study is to investigate some environmental factors in the transmission of the corona virus.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Abdolkazem Neisi
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health and Air Pollution and Respiratory Diseases Research Center, Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences, Ahvaz, Iran
| | - Gholamreza Goudarzi
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health and Air Pollution and Respiratory Diseases Research Center, Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences, Ahvaz, Iran
| | - Mohammad Javad Mohammadi
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health and Air Pollution and Respiratory Diseases Research Center, Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences, Ahvaz, Iran
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health and Environmental Technologies Research Center (ETRC), Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences, Ahvaz, Iran
| | - Yasser Tahmasebi
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health and Environmental Technologies Research Center (ETRC), Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences, Ahvaz, Iran
| | - Fakher Rahim
- Thalassemia & Hemoglobinopathy Research Center, Health Research Institute, Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences, Ahvaz, Iran
| | - Zeinab Baboli
- Department of Environmental Health Engineering, Behbahan Faculty of Medical Sciences, Behbahan, Iran
| | - Mohsen Yazdani
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Nursing, Torbat Jaam Faculty of Medical Sciences, Torbat Jaam, Iran
| | - Armin Sorooshian
- Department of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ USA
| | - Somayeh Alizade Attar
- Department of Environmental Health, Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences, Ahvaz, Iran
| | - Kambiz Ahmadi Angali
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Health, Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences, Ahvaz, Iran
| | - Khan Alam
- Department of Physics, University of Peshawar, Peshawar, 25120 Pakistan
| | - Maryam Ahmadian
- Department of Biostatistics, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Majid Farhadi
- Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Public Health, Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences, Ahvaz, Iran
| |
Collapse
|
11
|
Coccia M. Foundations of the Theory of Innovation Failure: Theoretical Structure and Evidence. SSRN ELECTRONIC JOURNAL 2023. [DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.4351599] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 09/02/2023]
|
12
|
Takefuji Y. Time-series COVID-19 policymaker analysis of the UAE, Taiwan, New Zealand, Japan and Hungary. DIALOGUES IN HEALTH 2022; 1:100081. [PMID: 36785630 PMCID: PMC9671872 DOI: 10.1016/j.dialog.2022.100081] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/20/2022] [Revised: 11/14/2022] [Accepted: 11/16/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
There are two types of policy analysis: socioeconomic analysis and public policy outcome analysis. The socioeconomic analysis is used for understanding the relationship between COVID-19 incident and mortality and building effective governance. There are two types of policy outcome analysis: general policy analysis and time series policy analysis. This paper is a policy outcome analysis of COVID-19, not a policy analysis. This paper examines COVID-19 policy outcome analysis of five countries such as the UAE, Taiwan, New Zealand, Japan and Hungary. Two policy outcome analysis tools are used in this paper such as scorecovid to generate a snapshot list of sorted scores and time-series hiscovid to identify when policymakers made mistakes for correcting mistakes in the near future policy update. Scores in both tools are based on the population mortality rate: dividing the number of COVID-19 deaths by the population in millions. The lower the score, the better the policy. The higher the score, the more deaths that make people unhappy. COVID-19 death is the most unfortunate event in life and is caused by policy. The introduced time-series policy analysis tool, hiscovid discovered ten facts of five countries. Discovered ten facts will be detailed in this paper. Visualization of policy outcomes over time will play an important role in mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic.
Collapse
|
13
|
Coccia M. COVID-19 Vaccination is not a Sufficient Public Policy to face Crisis Management of next Pandemic Threats. PUBLIC ORGANIZATION REVIEW 2022. [PMCID: PMC9574799 DOI: 10.1007/s11115-022-00661-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/11/2022] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
This study reveals that a vast vaccination campaign is a necessary but not sufficient public policy to reduce the negative impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic crisis because manifold factors guide the spread of this new infectious disease and related mortality in society. Statistical evidence here, based on a worldwide sample of countries, shows a positive correlation between people fully vaccinated and COVID-19 mortality (r = + 0.65, p-value < 0.01). Multivariate regression, controlling income per capita, confirms this finding. Results suggest that the increasing share of people vaccinated against COVID-19 seems to be a necessary but not sufficient health policy to reduce mortality of COVID-19. The findings here can be explained with the role of Peltzman effect, new variants, environmental and socioeconomic factors that affect the diffusion and negative impact of COVID-19 pandemic in society. This study extends the knowledge in this research field to design effective public policies of crisis management for facing next pandemic threats.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Mario Coccia
- CNR -- NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF ITALY, Collegio Carlo Alberto, Via Real Collegio, n. 30, 10024 Moncalieri (TO), Italy
| |
Collapse
|