Combining environmental suitability and population abundances to evaluate the invasive potential of the tunicate Ciona intestinalis along the temperate South American coast

Non-indigenous species and their realized niche in tidepools along the South-East Pacific coast

Non-indigenous species (NIS) have the potential to colonize and become established in a wide range of coastal habitats. Species with broad environmental tolerances can quickly adapt to local conditions and expand their niches along environmental gradients, and even colonize habitats with extreme abiotic conditions. Here we report and document the distribution of eight marine NIS (four seaweed and four invertebrate species) found in tidepools along a 3000 km latitudinal gradient along the Pacific coast of Chile (18.4°S to 41.9°S). The seaweed NIS Codium fragile, Capreolia implexa, Schottera nicaeensis and Mastocarpus latissimus were mostly distributed towards high latitudes (i.e., more southerly locations), where temperatures in tidepools were low. The invertebrate NIS Anemonia alicemartinae, Ciona robusta, Bugula neritina and Bugulina flabellata were more common towards low latitudes, where high temperatures were registered in the tidepools. Across the intertidal gradient, seaweed NIS were mostly found in pools in the mid and low intertidal zone, while invertebrate NIS occurred mostly in pools from the mid and upper intertidal zones. The realized niche spaces of NIS (based on the Outlying Mean Index, OMI) in the study area were mainly influenced by environmental conditions of temperature and salinity (along the latitudinal and intertidal gradients), while other tidepool characteristics (depth, surface area, exposition, and complexity) only had minor effects. Five of the eight NIS exhibited a realized niche space coinciding with the average tidepool environmental conditions, while marginal niches were occupied by species with affinities for specific temperatures and salinities along the latitudinal and intertidal gradients. Our results indicate that physiological tolerances to environmental factors play a fundamental role in the distribution of seaweed and invertebrate NIS in tidepools along the Chilean coast. This study confirms that tidepools offer suitable conditions for some seaweed and invertebrate NIS, potentially facilitating their invasion into new natural habitats.

Modeling present and future distribution of plankton populations in a coastal upwelling zone: the copepod Calanus chilensis as a study case

Predicting species distribution in the ocean has become a crucial task to assess marine ecosystem responses to ongoing climate change. In the Humboldt Current System (HCS), the endemic copepod Calanus chilensis is one of the key species bioindicator of productivity and water masses. Here we modeled the geographic distribution of Calanus chilensis for two bathymetric ranges, 0-200 and 200-400 m. For the 0-200 m layer, we used the Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) method, whereas, for the 200-400 m layer, we used the Ensembles of Small Models (ESMs) method and then projected the models into two future scenarios to assess changes in geographic distribution patterns. The models were evaluated using the multi-metric approach. We identified that chlorophyll-a (0.34), Mixed Layer Depth (0.302) and salinity (0.36) explained the distribution of C. chilensis. The geographic prediction of the BART model revealed a continuous distribution from Ecuador to the southernmost area of South America for the 0-200 m depth range, whereas the ESM model indicated a discontinuous distribution with greater suitability for the coast of Chile for the 200-400 m depth range. A reduction of the distribution range of C. chilensis is projected in the future. Our study suggests that the distribution of C. chilensis is conditioned by productivity and mesoscale processes, with both processes closely related to upwelling intensity. These models serve as a tool for proposing indicators of changes in the ocean. We further propose that the species C. chilensis is a high productivity and low salinity indicator at the HCS. We recommend further examining multiple spatial and temporal scales for stronger inference.

Can suitability indices predict plant growth in the invaded range? The case of Acacias species

INTRODUCTION

Forestry in many parts of the world depends on exotic species, making this industry a source of invasions in some countries. Among others, plantations of the genus Pinus, Eucalyptus, Acacia, Populus, and Pseudotsuga underpin the forestry industry and are a vital component of many countries economies. Among woody plants, the cosmopolitan genus Acacia includes some of the most commonly planted trees worldwide. In order to prevent, manage and control invasive plant species, one of the most used tools is species distribution models. The output of these models can also be used to obtain information about population characteristics, such as spatial abundance patterns or species performance. Although ecological theory suggests a direct link between fitness and suitability, this link is often absent. The reasons behind the lack of this relationship are multiple. Chile is one of the countries where Acacia species, in particular, A. dealbata and A. melanoxylon, have become invaders.

METHODS

Here, we used climatic and edaphic variables to predict thepotentially suitable habitats for A. dealbata and A. melanoxylon in continental Chile and evaluate if the suitability indices obtained from these models are associated with the observed performance of the trees along the country.

RESULTS

Our models show that variable importance showed significant similarities between the variables that characterize each species' niche. However, despite the high accuracy of our models, we did not observe an association between suitability and tree growth.

DISCUSSION

This disconnection between suitability and performance can result from multiple causes, from structural limitations, like the lack of biotic interactions in the models, to methodological issues, like the usefulness of the performance metric used. Whatever the scenario, our results suggest that plans to control invasive species should be cautious in assuming this relationship in their design and consider other indicators such as species establishment success.

Ecological Review of the Ciona Species Complex

AbstractThe set of four closely related solitary ascidians Ciona spp. were once considered a single cosmopolitan species, Ciona intestinalis, but are now recognized as genetically and morphologically distinct species. The possibility of ecological differences between the species was not widely considered in studies preceding the schism of Ciona spp. Consequently, there may be an over-generalization of the ecology of Ciona spp., with potential implications for the broad range of studies targeting these species, encompassing the evolution, development, genomics, and invasion biology of Ciona spp. We completed a comprehensive review of the ecology of Ciona spp. to establish the similarities and differences between the widely distributed Ciona robusta and C. intestinalis (and what little is known of the two other species, Ciona sp. C and Ciona sp. D). When necessary, we used study locations and the species' geographic ranges to infer the species in each study in the review. As expected, ecological similarities are the norm between the two species, spanning both abiotic and biotic interactions. However, there are also important differences that have potential implications for other aspects of the biology of Ciona spp. For example, differences in temperature and salinity tolerances likely correspond with the disparities in the geographic distribution of the species. Asymmetries in topics studied in each species diminish our ability to fully compare several aspects of the ecology of Ciona spp. and are priority areas for future research. We anticipate that our clarification of common and unique aspects of each species' ecology will help to provide context for future research in many aspects of the biology of Ciona spp.

Species distribution models for invasive Eurasian watermilfoil highlight the importance of data quality and limitations of discrimination accuracy metrics

AIM

Availability of uniformly collected presence, absence, and abundance data remains a key challenge in species distribution modeling (SDM). For invasive species, abundance and impacts are highly variable across landscapes, and quality occurrence and abundance data are critical for predicting locations at high risk for invasion and impacts, respectively. We leverage a large aquatic vegetation dataset comprising point-level survey data that includes information on the invasive plant Myriophyllum spicatum (Eurasian watermilfoil) to: (a) develop SDMs to predict invasion and impact from environmental variables based on presence-absence, presence-only, and abundance data, and (b) compare evaluation metrics based on functional and discrimination accuracy for presence-absence and presence-only SDMs.

LOCATION

Minnesota, USA.

METHODS

Eurasian watermilfoil presence-absence and abundance information were gathered from 468 surveyed lakes, and 801 unsurveyed lakes were leveraged as pseudoabsences for presence-only models. A Random Forest algorithm was used to model the distribution and abundance of Eurasian watermilfoil as a function of lake-specific predictors, both with and without a spatial autocovariate. Occurrence-based SDMs were evaluated using conventional discrimination accuracy metrics and functional accuracy metrics assessing correlation between predicted suitability and observed abundance.

RESULTS

Water temperature degree days and maximum lake depth were two leading predictors influencing both invasion risk and abundance, but they were relatively less important for predicting abundance than other water quality measures. Road density was a strong predictor of Eurasian watermilfoil invasion risk but not abundance. Model evaluations highlighted significant differences: Presence-absence models had high functional accuracy despite low discrimination accuracy, whereas presence-only models showed the opposite pattern.

MAIN CONCLUSION

Complementing presence-absence data with abundance information offers a richer understanding of invasive Eurasian watermilfoil's ecological niche and enables evaluation of the model's functional accuracy. Conventional discrimination accuracy measures were misleading when models were developed using pseudoabsences. We thus caution against the overuse of presence-only models and suggest directing more effort toward systematic monitoring programs that yield high-quality data.

Spread of the non-native anemone Anemonia alicemartinae Häussermann & Försterra, 2001 along the Humboldt-current large marine ecosystem: an ecological niche model approach

The geographical expansion of invasive species depends mainly on its dispersal potential, and the abiotic and biotic factors affecting it. Knowing the invasive dynamic of non-native species, as well as its behavior at different natural or anthropogenic scenarios, is fundamental for planning conservation management policies and control plans. The invasive sea anemone Anemonia alicemartinae in habits from the north (18°S) to the south-central (36°S) coast of Chile and its distribution range has expanded by approximately 1,928 km in the last 50 years. Previous works have proposed that human-mediated southward transport associated with regional-scale maritime activities could explain its rapid spread. To evaluate this hypothesis, we used ecological niche models (ENM) to evaluate the potential colonization of the southernmost area of South America. Additionally, we conducted a post hoc analysis to evaluate the relationship between the prediction of the ENM and human activity measured as the number of landings of ships in ports. The models were built based on presence records of A. alicemartinae, and oceanographic variables. Results showed that sea surface salinity and annual sea surface temperature (variance) are the best predictor variables to explain the distribution of A. alicemartinae. There was a positive and significant relationship between the geographical distribution of the sea anemone predicted by the ENM and the number of landings, as a proxy of anthropogenic activity. The most susceptible areas to invasion were those that showed the highest variability in both oceanographic predictors. These areas included the Biobío region, Chiloé´s inland sea, Aysén, and Chacabuco regions, which together comprise two biogeographical provinces. These results sustain the proposed hypothesis and, overall, the results suggest that along with the characteristics of the life history of A. alicemartinae, oceanographic conditions and maritime transport as vector contribute to the southern range expansion of this invasive cryptogenic species in the Humboldt-current large marine ecosystem.