Fragmentation, forest structure, and topography modulate impacts of drought in a tropical forest landscape

Regional and local determinants of drought resilience in tropical forests

The increase in severity of droughts associated with greater mortality and reduced vegetation growth is one of the main threats to tropical forests. Drought resilience of tropical forests is affected by multiple biotic and abiotic factors varying at different scales. Identifying those factors can help understanding the resilience to ongoing and future climate change. Altitude leads to high climate variation and to different forest formations, principally moist or dry tropical forests with contrasted vegetation structure. Each tropical forest can show distinct responses to droughts. Locally, topography is also a key factor controlling biotic and abiotic factors related to drought resilience in each forest type. Here, we show that topography has key roles controlling biotic and abiotic factors in each forest type. The most important abiotic factors are soil nutrients, water availability, and microclimate. The most important biotic factors are leaf economic and hydraulic plant traits, and vegetation structure. Both dry tropical forests and ridges (steeper and drier habitats) are more sensitive to droughts than moist tropical forest and valleys (flatter and wetter habitats). The higher mortality in ridges suggests that conservative traits are not sufficient to protect plants from drought in drier steeper habitats. Our synthesis highlights that altitude and topography gradients are essential to understand mechanisms of tropical forest's resilience to future drought events. We described important factors related to drought resilience, however, many important knowledge gaps remain. Filling those gaps will help improve future practices and studies about mitigation capacity, conservation, and restoration of tropical ecosystems.

Satellite data reveal differential responses of Swiss forests to unprecedented 2018 drought

Extreme events such as the summer drought of 2018 in Central Europe are projected to occur more frequently in the future and may cause major damages including increased tree mortality and negative impacts on forest ecosystem services. Here, we quantify the response of >1 million forest pixels of 10 × 10 m across Switzerland to the 2018 drought in terms of resistance, recovery, and resilience. We used the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) derived from Sentinel-2 satellite data as a proxy for canopy water content and analyzed its relative change. We calculated NDWI change between the 2017 pre-drought and 2018 drought years (indicating resistance), 2018 and the 2019 post-drought (indicating recovery), and between 2017-2019 (indicating resilience). Analyzing the data from this large natural experiment, we found that for 4.3% of the Swiss forest the NDWI declined between 2017 and 2018, indicating areas with low resistance of the forest canopy to drought effects. While roughly 50% of this area recovered, in 2.7% of the forested area NDWI continued to decline from 2018 to 2019, suggesting prolonged negative effects or delayed damage. We found differential forest responses to drought associated with site topographic characteristics and forest stand characteristics, and to a lesser extent with climatic conditions and interactions between these drivers. Low drought resistance and high recovery were most prominent at forest edges, but also on south-facing slopes and lower elevations. Tree functional type was the most important driver of drought resilience, with most of the damage in stands with high conifer abundance. Our results demonstrate the suitability of satellite-based quantification of drought-induced forest damage at high spatial resolution across large areas. Such information is important to predict how local site characteristics may impact forest vulnerability to future extreme events and help in the search for appropriate adaptation strategies.

Land-use legacies predispose the response of trees to drought in restored forests

Transformative change is required to achieve conservation of the globe's natural resources. Ambitious forest restoration can help achieve this change. Restoration success depends on trees persisting through multiple stressors, with drought standing out as one of utmost importance. However, research tends to focus on tree inciting factors of tree decline, like drought, whilst ignoring the fundamental importance of context, potentially leading to the wasted restoration effort. Indeed, the propensity of trees to succumb to, or resist, drought depends on whether they are predisposed to fail or succeed. Here, I argue that this predisposition crucially depends on the nature and characteristics of the former land use at the restoration site and propose a research agenda that will help enable the successful upscaling of forest restoration ambitions by revealing the land-use history-determined conditions under which tree species are likely to succeed in an era of environmental challenges.

Delayed effects of climate on vital rates lead to demographic divergence in Amazonian forest fragments

Deforestation often results in landscapes where remaining forest habitat is highly fragmented, with remnants of different sizes embedded in an often highly contrasting matrix. Local extinction of species from individual fragments is common, but the demographic mechanisms underlying these extinctions are poorly understood. It is often hypothesized that altered environmental conditions in fragments drive declines in reproduction, recruitment, or survivorship. The Amazon basin, in addition to experiencing continuing fragmentation, is experiencing climate change-related increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts and unusually wet periods. Whether plant populations in tropical forest fragments are particularly susceptible to extremes in precipitation remains unclear. Most studies of plants in fragments are relatively short (1-6 years), focus on a single life-history stage, and often do not compare to populations in continuous forest. Even fewer studies consider delayed effects of climate on demographic vital rates despite the importance of delayed effects in studies that consider them. Using a decade of demographic and climate data from an experimentally fragmented landscape in the Central Amazon, we assess the effects of climate on populations of an understory herb (Heliconia acuminata, Heliconiaceae). We used distributed lag nonlinear models to understand the delayed effects of climate (measured as standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, SPEI) on survival, growth, and flowering. We detected delayed effects of climate up to 36 months. Extremes in SPEI in the previous year reduced survival, drought in the wet season 8-11 months prior to the February census increased growth, and drought two dry seasons prior increased flowering probability. Effects of extremes in precipitation on survival and growth were more pronounced in forest fragments compared to continuous forest. The complex delayed effects of climate and habitat fragmentation in our study point to the importance of long-term demography experiments in understanding the effects of anthropogenic change on plant populations.

Drought stress and hurricane defoliation influence mountain clouds and moisture recycling in a tropical forest

Mountain ranges generate clouds, precipitation, and perennial streamflow for water supplies, but the role of forest cover in mountain hydrometeorology and cloud formation is not well understood. In the Luquillo Experimental Forest of Puerto Rico, mountains are immersed in clouds nightly, providing a steady precipitation source to support the tropical forest ecosystems and human uses. A severe drought in 2015 and the removal of forest canopy (defoliation) by Hurricane Maria in 2017 created natural experiments to examine interactions between the living forest and hydroclimatic processes. These unprecedented land-based observations over 4.5 y revealed that the orographic cloud system was highly responsive to local land-surface moisture and energy balances moderated by the forest. Cloud layer thickness and immersion frequency on the mountain slope correlated with antecedent rainfall, linking recycled terrestrial moisture to the formation of mountain clouds; and cloud-base altitude rose during drought stress and posthurricane defoliation. Changes in diurnal cycles of temperature and vapor-pressure deficit and an increase in sensible versus latent heat flux quantified local meteorological response to forest disturbances. Temperature and water vapor anomalies along the mountain slope persisted for at least 12 mo posthurricane, showing that understory recovery did not replace intact forest canopy function. In many similar settings around the world, prolonged drought, increasing temperatures, and deforestation could affect orographic cloud precipitation and the humans and ecosystems that depend on it.

Resilience of Spanish forests to recent droughts and climate change

A widespread increase in forest cover is underway in northern Mediterranean forests because of land abandonment and decreased wood demand, but the resilience of these successional forests to climate change remains unresolved. Here we use 18-year time series of canopy greenness derived from satellite imagery (NDVI) to evaluate the impacts of climate change on Spain's forests. Specifically, we analyzed how NDVI was influenced by the climatic water balance (i.e. Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI), using monthly time-series extracted from 3,100 pixels of forest, categorized into ten forest types. The forests increased in leaf area index by 0.01 per year on average (from 1.7 in 2000 to 1.9 in 2017) but there was enormous variation among years related to climatic water balance. Forest types varied in response to drought events: those dominated by drought-avoiding species showed strong covariance between greenness and SPEI, while those dominated by drought-tolerant species showed weak covariance. Native forests usually recovered more than 80% of greenness within the 18 months and the remainder within 5 years, but plantations of Eucalyptus were less resilient. Management to increase the resilience of forests-a key goal of forestry in the Mediterranean region-appears to have had a positive effect: canopy greenness within protected forests was more resilient to drought than within non-protected forests. In conclusion, many of Spain's successional forests have been resilient to drought over the past 18 years, from the perspective of space. Future studies will need to combine remote sensing with field-based analyses of physiological tolerances and mortality processes to understand how Mediterranean forests will respond to the rapid climate change predicted for this region in the coming decades.

Estimation of woody plant species diversity during a dry season in a savanna environment using the spectral and textural information derived from WorldView-2 imagery

Remote sensing techniques are useful in the monitoring of woody plant species diversity in different environments including in savanna vegetation types. However, the performance of satellite imagery in assessing woody plant species diversity in dry seasons has been understudied. This study aimed to assess the performance of multiple Gray Level Co-occurrence Matrices (GLCM) derived from individual bands of WorldView-2 satellite imagery to quantify woody plant species diversity in a savanna environment during the dry season. Woody plant species were counted in 220 plots (20 m radius) and subsequently converted to a continuous scale of the Shannon species diversity index. The index regressed against the GLCMs using the all-possible-subsets regression approach that builds competing models to choose from. Entropy GLCM yielded the best overall accuracy (adjusted R2: 0.41-0.46; Root Mean Square Error (RMSE): 0.60-0.58) in estimating species diversity. The effect of the number of predicting bands on species diversity estimation was also explored. Accuracy generally increased when three-five bands were used in models but stabilised or gradually decreased as more than five bands were used. Despite the peak accuracies achieved with three-five bands, performances still fared well for models that used fewer bands, showing the relevance of few bands for species diversity estimation. We also assessed the effect of GLCM window size (3×3, 5×5 and 7×7) on species diversity estimation and generally found inconsistent conclusions. These findings demonstrate the capability of GLCMs combined with high spatial resolution imagery in estimating woody plants species diversity in a savanna environment during the dry period. It is important to test the performance of species diversity estimation of similar environmental set-ups using widely available moderate-resolution imagery.

Small spaces, big impacts: contributions of micro-environmental variation to population persistence under climate change

Individuals within natural populations can experience very different abiotic and biotic conditions across small spatial scales owing to microtopography and other micro-environmental gradients. Ecological and evolutionary studies often ignore the effects of micro-environment on plant population and community dynamics. Here, we explore the extent to which fine-grained variation in abiotic and biotic conditions contributes to within-population variation in trait expression and genetic diversity in natural plant populations. Furthermore, we consider whether benign microhabitats could buffer local populations of some plant species from abiotic stresses imposed by rapid anthropogenic climate change. If microrefugia sustain local populations and communities in the short term, other eco-evolutionary processes, such as gene flow and adaptation, could enhance population stability in the longer term. We caution, however, that local populations may still decline in size as they contract into rare microhabitats and microrefugia. We encourage future research that explicitly examines the role of the micro-environment in maintaining genetic variation within local populations, favouring the evolution of phenotypic plasticity at local scales and enhancing population persistence under global change.

Disentangling the effects of environment and ontogeny on tree functional dimensions for congeneric species in tropical forests

Soil water and nutrient availability are key drivers of tree species distribution and forest ecosystem functioning, with strong species differences in water and nutrient use. Despite growing evidence for intraspecific trait differences, it remains unclear under which circumstances the effects of environmental gradients trump those of ontogeny and taxonomy on important functional dimensions related to resource use, particularly in tropical forests. Here, we explore how physiological, chemical, and morphological traits related to resource use vary between life stages in four species within the genus Micropholis that is widespread in lowland Amazonia. Specifically, we evaluate how environment, developmental stage, and taxonomy contribute to single-trait variation and multidimensional functional strategies. We find that environment, developmental stage, and taxonomy differentially contribute to functional dimensions. Habitats and seasons shape physiological and chemical traits related to water and nutrient use, whereas developmental stage and taxonomic identity impact morphological traits -especially those related to the leaf economics spectrum. Our findings suggest that combining environment, ontogeny, and taxonomy allows for a better understanding of important functional dimensions in tropical trees and highlights the need for integrating tree physiological and chemical traits with classically used morphological traits to improve predictions of tropical forests' responses to environmental change.

Hurricane-Induced Rainfall is a Stronger Predictor of Tropical Forest Damage in Puerto Rico Than Maximum Wind Speeds

Projected increases in cyclonic storm intensity under a warming climate will have profound effects on forests, potentially changing these ecosystems from carbon sinks to sources. Forecasting storm impacts on these ecosystems requires consideration of risk factors associated with storm meteorology, landscape structure, and forest attributes. Here we evaluate risk factors associated with damage severity caused by Hurricanes María and Irma across Puerto Rican forests. Using field and remote sensing data, total forest aboveground biomass (AGB) lost to the storms was estimated at 10.44 (±2.33) Tg, ca. 23% of island-wide pre-hurricane forest AGB. Storm-related rainfall was a stronger predictor of forest damage than maximum wind speeds. Soil water storage capacity was also an important risk factor, corroborating the influence of rainfall on forest damage. Expected increases of 20% in hurricane-associated rainfall in the North Atlantic highlight the need to consider how such shifts, together with high speed winds, will affect terrestrial ecosystems.

Contrasting Trends of Forest Coverage between the Inland and Coastal Urban Groups of China over the Past Decades

China is building forest urban groups through reforestation and afforestation. However, the fast process of urbanization inevitably conflicts with multiple vegetated areas around cities. Hence, it is critical to evaluate the changes in regional vegetation cover and its spatial pattern due to complex natural and anthropogenic factors. Nevertheless, systematic studies to quantify and compare the development of forest urban agglomerations were rarely reported. Based on a remote sensing landcover dataset from 1992 to 2015, this study investigated forest cover changes and the impacts on landscape pattern in several urban groups, and tried to explore their differences between the inland and coastal regions of China. The results showed that over the past 24 years, the forest coverage in the coastal urban agglomerations declined (103 km2/year) while it increased (26 km2/year) in the inland urban agglomerations. There was a certain conflict between forest and cropland for the coastal urban agglomerations where the forest area converted to cropland accounted for 61.9% of the total forest loss. The increase in forests coverage in inland urban agglomerations mainly came from grassland which nearly accounted for 66.47% of the total increase. The landscape diversity has also changed in areas where forests have changed significantly (e.g., Shanghai, Changzhi, and Jincheng).