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Willson AM, Gallo H, Peters JA, Abeyta A, Bueno Watts N, Carey CC, Moore TN, Smies G, Thomas RQ, Woelmer WM, McLachlan JS. Assessing opportunities and inequities in undergraduate ecological forecasting education. Ecol Evol 2023; 13:e10001. [PMID: 37153017 PMCID: PMC10154799 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/04/2022] [Revised: 02/13/2023] [Accepted: 03/29/2023] [Indexed: 05/09/2023] Open
Abstract
Conducting ecological research in a way that addresses complex, real-world problems requires a diverse, interdisciplinary and quantitatively trained ecology and environmental science workforce. This begins with equitably training students in ecology, interdisciplinary science, and quantitative skills at the undergraduate level. Understanding the current undergraduate curriculum landscape in ecology and environmental sciences allows for targeted interventions to improve equitable educational opportunities. Ecological forecasting is a sub-discipline of ecology with roots in interdisciplinary and quantitative science. We use ecological forecasting to show how ecology and environmental science undergraduate curriculum could be evaluated and ultimately restructured to address the needs of the 21st century workforce. To characterize the current state of ecological forecasting education, we compiled existing resources for teaching and learning ecological forecasting at three curriculum levels: online resources; US university courses on ecological forecasting; and US university courses on topics related to ecological forecasting. We found persistent patterns (1) in what topics are taught to US undergraduate students at each of the curriculum levels; and (2) in the accessibility of resources, in terms of course availability at higher education institutions in the United States. We developed and implemented programs to increase the accessibility and comprehensiveness of ecological forecasting undergraduate education, including initiatives to engage specifically with Native American undergraduates and online resources for learning quantitative concepts at the undergraduate level. Such steps enhance the capacity of ecological forecasting to be more inclusive to undergraduate students from diverse backgrounds and expose more students to quantitative training.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alyssa M. Willson
- Department of Biological SciencesUniversity of Notre DameNotre DameIndiana46556USA
| | - Hayden Gallo
- Department of Applied and Computational Mathematics and StatisticsUniversity of Notre DameNotre DameIndiana46556USA
| | - Jody A. Peters
- Department of Biological SciencesUniversity of Notre DameNotre DameIndiana46556USA
| | - Antoinette Abeyta
- Mathematics, Physical and Natural Sciences DivisionUniversity of New Mexico, GallupGallupNew Mexico87301USA
| | - Nievita Bueno Watts
- Indian Natural Resource Science & Engineering ProgramCalifornia Polytechnic State University, HumboldtArcataCalifornia95521USA
| | - Cayelan C. Carey
- Department of Biological SciencesVirginia Polytechnic Institute and State UniversityBlacksburgVirginia24061USA
| | - Tadhg N. Moore
- UNEP GEMS/Water Capacity Development CentreUniversity College CorkCorkIreland
| | - Georgia Smies
- Division of Natural ResourcesSalish Kootenai CollegePabloMontana59855USA
| | - R. Quinn Thomas
- Department of Forest Resources and Environmental ConservationVirginia Polytechnic Institute and State UniversityBlacksburgVirginia24061USA
| | - Whitney M. Woelmer
- Department of Biological SciencesVirginia Polytechnic Institute and State UniversityBlacksburgVirginia24061USA
| | - Jason S. McLachlan
- Department of Biological SciencesUniversity of Notre DameNotre DameIndiana46556USA
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Liu Y, Ogle K, Lichstein JW, Jackson ST. Estimation of pollen productivity and dispersal: How pollen assemblages in small lakes represent vegetation. ECOL MONOGR 2022. [DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1513] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Yao Liu
- Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences Northumbria University Newcastle upon Tyne UK
- Environmental Sciences Division & Climate Change Science Institute Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge TN USA
| | - Kiona Ogle
- The School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems Northern Arizona University Flagstaff AZ USA
- Center for Ecosystem Science and Society Northern Arizona University Flagstaff AZ USA
- Department of Biological Sciences Northern Arizona University Flagstaff AZ USA
| | | | - Stephen T. Jackson
- US Geological Survey Southwest and South Central Climate Adaptation Science Centers Tucson AZ USA
- Department of Geosciences and School of Natural Resources and Environment University of Arizona Tucson AZ USA
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3
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Sharma S, Andrus R, Bergeron Y, Bogdziewicz M, Bragg DC, Brockway D, Cleavitt NL, Courbaud B, Das AJ, Dietze M, Fahey TJ, Franklin JF, Gilbert GS, Greenberg CH, Guo Q, Hille Ris Lambers J, Ibanez I, Johnstone JF, Kilner CL, Knops JMH, Koenig WD, Kunstler G, LaMontagne JM, Macias D, Moran E, Myers JA, Parmenter R, Pearse IS, Poulton-Kamakura R, Redmond MD, Reid CD, Rodman KC, Scher CL, Schlesinger WH, Steele MA, Stephenson NL, Swenson JJ, Swift M, Veblen TT, Whipple AV, Whitham TG, Wion AP, Woodall CW, Zlotin R, Clark JS. North American tree migration paced by climate in the West, lagging in the East. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2022; 119:e2116691118. [PMID: 34983867 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2116691118] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 11/22/2021] [Indexed: 01/16/2023] Open
Abstract
Suitable habitats for forest trees may be shifting fast with recent climate change. Studies tracking the shift in suitable habitat for forests have been inconclusive, in part because responses in tree fecundity and seedling establishment can diverge. Analysis of both components at a continental scale reveals a poleward migration of northern species that is in progress now. Recruitment and fecundity both contribute to poleward spread in the West, while fecundity limits spread in the East, despite a fecundity hotspot in the Southeast. Fecundity limitation on population spread can confront conservation and management efforts with persistent disequilibrium between forest diversity and rapid climate change. Tree fecundity and recruitment have not yet been quantified at scales needed to anticipate biogeographic shifts in response to climate change. By separating their responses, this study shows coherence across species and communities, offering the strongest support to date that migration is in progress with regional limitations on rates. The southeastern continent emerges as a fecundity hotspot, but it is situated south of population centers where high seed production could contribute to poleward population spread. By contrast, seedling success is highest in the West and North, serving to partially offset limited seed production near poleward frontiers. The evidence of fecundity and recruitment control on tree migration can inform conservation planning for the expected long-term disequilibrium between climate and forest distribution.
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Qiu T, Sharma S, Woodall CW, Clark JS. Niche Shifts From Trees to Fecundity to Recruitment That Determine Species Response to Climate Change. Front Ecol Evol 2021. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2021.719141] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Anticipating the next generation of forests requires understanding of recruitment responses to habitat change. Tree distribution and abundance depend not only on climate, but also on habitat variables, such as soils and drainage, and on competition beneath a shaded canopy. Recent analyses show that North American tree species are migrating in response to climate change, which is exposing each population to novel climate-habitat interactions (CHI). Because CHI have not been estimated for either adult trees or regeneration (recruits per year per adult basal area), we cannot evaluate migration potential into the future. Using the Masting Inference and Forecasting (MASTIF) network of tree fecundity and new continent-wide observations of tree recruitment, we quantify impacts for redistribution across life stages from adults to fecundity to recruitment. We jointly modeled response of adult abundance and recruitment rate to climate/habitat conditions, combined with fecundity sensitivity, to evaluate if shifting CHI explain community reorganization. To compare climate effects with tree fecundity, which is estimated from trees and thus is "conditional" on tree presence, we demonstrate how to quantify this conditional status for regeneration. We found that fecundity was regulated by temperature to a greater degree than other stages, yet exhibited limited responses to moisture deficit. Recruitment rate expressed strong sensitivities to CHI, more like adults than fecundity, but still with substantial differences. Communities reorganized from adults to fecundity, but there was a re-coalescence of groups as seedling recruitment partially reverted to community structure similar to that of adults. Results provide the first estimates of continent-wide community sensitivity and their implications for reorganization across three life-history stages under climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- John W Williams
- Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States
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Paciorek CJ, Cogbill CV, Peters JA, Williams JW, Mladenoff DJ, Dawson A, McLachlan JS. The forests of the midwestern United States at Euro-American settlement: Spatial and physical structure based on contemporaneous survey data. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0246473. [PMID: 33571316 PMCID: PMC7877788 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0246473] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2020] [Accepted: 01/19/2021] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
We present gridded 8 km-resolution data products of the estimated stem density, basal area, and biomass of tree taxa at Euro-American settlement of the midwestern United States during the middle to late 19th century for the states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, and Indiana. The data come from settlement-era Public Land Survey (PLS) data (ca. 0.8-km resolution) of trees recorded by land surveyors. The surveyor notes have been transcribed, cleaned, and processed to estimate stem density, basal area, and biomass at individual points. The point-level data are aggregated within 8 km grid cells and smoothed using a generalized additive statistical model that accounts for zero-inflated continuous data and provides approximate Bayesian uncertainty estimates. The statistical modeling smooths out sharp spatial features (likely arising from statistical noise) within areas smaller than about 200 km2. Based on this modeling, presettlement Midwestern landscapes supported multiple dominant species, vegetation types, forest types, and ecological formations. The prairies, oak savannas, and forests each had distinctive structures and spatial distributions across the domain. Forest structure varied from savanna (averaging 27 Mg/ha biomass) to northern hardwood (104 Mg/ha) and mesic southern forests (211 Mg/ha). The presettlement forests were neither unbroken and massively-statured nor dominated by young forests constantly structured by broad-scale disturbances such as fire, drought, insect outbreaks, or hurricanes. Most forests were structurally between modern second growth and old growth. We expect the data product to be useful as a baseline for investigating how forest ecosystems have changed in response to the last several centuries of climate change and intensive Euro-American land use and as a calibration dataset for paleoecological proxy-based reconstructions of forest composition and structure for earlier time periods. The data products (including raw and smoothed estimates at the 8-km scale) are available at the LTER Network Data Portal as version 1.0.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christopher J. Paciorek
- Department of Statistics, University of California, Berkeley, California, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Charles V. Cogbill
- Harvard Forest, Harvard University, Petersham, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Jody A. Peters
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, United States of America
| | - John W. Williams
- Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
- Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
| | - David J. Mladenoff
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
| | - Andria Dawson
- Department of General Education, Mount Royal University, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
| | - Jason S. McLachlan
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, United States of America
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Rollinson CR, Dawson A, Raiho AM, Williams JW, Dietze MC, Hickler T, Jackson ST, McLachlan J, Jp Moore D, Poulter B, Quaife T, Steinkamp J, Trachsel M. Forest responses to last-millennium hydroclimate variability are governed by spatial variations in ecosystem sensitivity. Ecol Lett 2020; 24:498-508. [PMID: 33377307 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13667] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/03/2020] [Revised: 11/18/2020] [Accepted: 11/23/2020] [Indexed: 01/13/2023]
Abstract
Forecasts of future forest change are governed by ecosystem sensitivity to climate change, but ecosystem model projections are under-constrained by data at multidecadal and longer timescales. Here, we quantify ecosystem sensitivity to centennial-scale hydroclimate variability, by comparing dendroclimatic and pollen-inferred reconstructions of drought, forest composition and biomass for the last millennium with five ecosystem model simulations. In both observations and models, spatial patterns in ecosystem responses to hydroclimate variability are strongly governed by ecosystem sensitivity rather than climate exposure. Ecosystem sensitivity was higher in models than observations and highest in simpler models. Model-data comparisons suggest that interactions among biodiversity, demography and ecophysiology processes dampen the sensitivity of forest composition and biomass to climate variability and change. Integrating ecosystem models with observations from timescales extending beyond the instrumental record can better understand and forecast the mechanisms regulating forest sensitivity to climate variability in a complex and changing world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christine R Rollinson
- Center for Tree Science, The Morton Arboretum, 4100 Illinois Route 53, Lisle, IL, 60532, USA
| | - Andria Dawson
- Department of General Education, Mount Royal University, Calgary, Alberta, T3E 6K6, Canada
| | - Ann M Raiho
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, 100 Galvin Life Science Center, Notre Dame, IN, 46556, USA
| | - John W Williams
- Department of Geography and Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, 53704, USA
| | - Michael C Dietze
- Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, 685 Commonwealth Ave, Boston, MA, 02215, USA
| | - Thomas Hickler
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, Frankfurt/Main, 60325, Germany.,Department of Physical Geography, Goethe University, Frankfurt/Main, Germany
| | - Stephen T Jackson
- US Geological Survey, Southwest and South Central Climate Adaptation Centers, Denver, DE, USA.,Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA
| | - Jason McLachlan
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, 100 Galvin Life Science Center, Notre Dame, IN, 46556, USA
| | - David Jp Moore
- School of Natural Resources, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA
| | | | - Tristan Quaife
- Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6BB, UK
| | - Jörg Steinkamp
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Frankfurt/Main, Germany.,Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, Germany
| | - Mathias Trachsel
- Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, 53704, USA
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Fordham DA, Jackson ST, Brown SC, Huntley B, Brook BW, Dahl-Jensen D, Gilbert MTP, Otto-Bliesner BL, Svensson A, Theodoridis S, Wilmshurst JM, Buettel JC, Canteri E, McDowell M, Orlando L, Pilowsky J, Rahbek C, Nogues-Bravo D. Using paleo-archives to safeguard biodiversity under climate change. Science 2020; 369:369/6507/eabc5654. [PMID: 32855310 DOI: 10.1126/science.abc5654] [Citation(s) in RCA: 49] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/30/2020] [Accepted: 06/30/2020] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
Abstract
Strategies for 21st-century environmental management and conservation under global change require a strong understanding of the biological mechanisms that mediate responses to climate- and human-driven change to successfully mitigate range contractions, extinctions, and the degradation of ecosystem services. Biodiversity responses to past rapid warming events can be followed in situ and over extended periods, using cross-disciplinary approaches that provide cost-effective and scalable information for species' conservation and the maintenance of resilient ecosystems in many bioregions. Beyond the intrinsic knowledge gain such integrative research will increasingly provide the context, tools, and relevant case studies to assist in mitigating climate-driven biodiversity losses in the 21st century and beyond.
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Affiliation(s)
- Damien A Fordham
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia. .,Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark
| | - Stephen T Jackson
- Southwest and South Central Climate Adaptation Science Centers, U.S. Geological Survey, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.,Department of Geosciences and School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Stuart C Brown
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia
| | - Brian Huntley
- Department of Biosciences, Durham University, Durham, DH1 3LE, UK
| | - Barry W Brook
- School of Natural Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - Dorthe Dahl-Jensen
- Centre for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Juliane Maries Vej 30, 2100 Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark.,Centre for Earth Observation Science, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg MB R3T 2N2, Canada
| | - M Thomas P Gilbert
- Center for Evolutionary Hologenomics, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark.,University Museum, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Bette L Otto-Bliesner
- Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307-3000, USA
| | - Anders Svensson
- Centre for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Juliane Maries Vej 30, 2100 Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark
| | - Spyros Theodoridis
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark
| | - Janet M Wilmshurst
- Long-Term Ecology Laboratory, Manaaki Whenua-Landcare Research, Lincoln 7640, New Zealand.,School of Environment, The University of Auckland, Auckland 1142, New Zealand
| | - Jessie C Buettel
- School of Natural Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - Elisabetta Canteri
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia.,Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark
| | - Matthew McDowell
- School of Natural Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - Ludovic Orlando
- Laboratoire d'Anthropobiologie Moléculaire et d'Imagerie de Synthèse UMR 5288, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, Université Paul Sabatier, France.,Section for GeoGenetics, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark
| | - Julia Pilowsky
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia.,Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark
| | - Carsten Rahbek
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark.,Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK.,Danish Institute for Advanced Study, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark.,Institute of Ecology, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
| | - David Nogues-Bravo
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark
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Dawson A, Paciorek CJ, Goring SJ, Jackson ST, McLachlan JS, Williams JW. Quantifying trends and uncertainty in prehistoric forest composition in the upper Midwestern United States. Ecology 2019; 100:e02856. [PMID: 31381148 PMCID: PMC6916576 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.2856] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/26/2018] [Revised: 03/20/2019] [Accepted: 04/30/2019] [Indexed: 01/20/2023]
Abstract
Forest ecosystems in eastern North America have been in flux for the last several thousand years, well before Euro‐American land clearance and the 20th‐century onset of anthropogenic climate change. However, the magnitude and uncertainty of prehistoric vegetation change have been difficult to quantify because of the multiple ecological, dispersal, and sedimentary processes that govern the relationship between forest composition and fossil pollen assemblages. Here we extend STEPPS, a Bayesian hierarchical spatiotemporal pollen–vegetation model, to estimate changes in forest composition in the upper Midwestern United States from about 2,100 to 300 yr ago. Using this approach, we find evidence for large changes in the relative abundance of some species, and significant changes in community composition. However, these changes took place against a regional background of changes that were small in magnitude or not statistically significant, suggesting complexity in the spatiotemporal patterns of forest dynamics. The single largest change is the infilling of Tsuga canadensis in northern Wisconsin over the past 2,000 yr. Despite range infilling, the range limit of T. canadensis was largely stable, with modest expansion westward. The regional ecotone between temperate hardwood forests and northern mixed hardwood/conifer forests shifted southwestward by 15–20 km in Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin. Fraxinus, Ulmus, and other mesic hardwoods expanded in the Big Woods region of southern Minnesota. The increasing density of paleoecological data networks and advances in statistical modeling approaches now enables the confident detection of subtle but significant changes in forest composition over the last 2,000 yr.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andria Dawson
- Department of General Education, Mount Royal University, Calgary, Alberta, T3E6K6, Canada
| | | | - Simon J Goring
- Department of Geography and Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, 53706, USA
| | - Stephen T Jackson
- Department of the Interior Southwest Climate Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Tucson, Arizona, 85721, USA.,Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, 85721, USA
| | - Jason S McLachlan
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, 46556, USA
| | - John W Williams
- Department of Geography and Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, 53706, USA
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