Mortality risk prediction in elderly patients with cardiogenic shock: results from the CardShock study

Methods to predict heart failure in diabetes patients

INTRODUCTION

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is one of the leading causes of cardiovascular disease and powerful predictor for new-onset heart failure (HF).

AREAS COVERED

We focus on the relevant literature covering evidence of risk stratification based on imaging predictors and circulating biomarkers to optimize approaches to preventing HF in DM patients.

EXPERT OPINION

Multiple diagnostic algorithms based on echocardiographic parameters of cardiac remodeling including global longitudinal strain/strain rate are likely to be promising approach to justify individuals at higher risk of incident HF. Signature of cardiometabolic status may justify HF risk among T2DM individuals with low levels of natriuretic peptides, which preserve their significance in HF with clinical presentation. However, diagnostic and predictive values of conventional guideline-directed biomarker HF strategy may be non-optimal in patients with obesity and T2DM. Alternative biomarkers affecting cardiac fibrosis, inflammation, myopathy, and adipose tissue dysfunction are plausible tools for improving accuracy natriuretic peptides among T2DM patients at higher HF risk. In summary, risk identification and management of the patients with T2DM with established HF require conventional biomarkers monitoring, while the role of alternative biomarker approach among patients with multiple CV and metabolic risk factors appears to be plausible tool for improving clinical outcomes.

Frailty and In-Hospital Outcomes for Management of Cardiogenic Shock without Acute Myocardial Infarction

(1) Background: Cardiogenic shock (CS) is associated with high morbidity and mortality. Frailty and cardiovascular diseases are intertwined, commonly sharing risk factors and exhibiting bidirectional relationships. The relationship of frailty and non-acute myocardial infarction with cardiogenic shock (non-AMI-CS) is poorly described. (2) Methods: We retrospectively analyzed the National Inpatient Sample from 2016 to 2020 and identified all hospitalizations for non-AMI-CS. We classified them into frail and non-frail groups according to the hospital frailty risk score cut-off of 5 and compared in-hospital outcomes. (3) Results: A total of 503,780 hospitalizations for non-AMI-CS were identified. Most hospitalizations involved frail adults (80.0%). Those with frailty had higher odds of in-hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.11, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.03-2.20, p < 0.001), do-not-resuscitate status, and discharge to a skilled nursing facility compared with those without frailty. They also had higher odds of in-hospital adverse events, such as acute kidney injury, delirium, and longer length of stay. Importantly, non-AMI-CS hospitalizations in the frail group had lower use of mechanical circulatory support but not rates of cardiac transplantation. (4) Conclusions: Frailty is highly prevalent among non-AMI-CS hospitalizations. Those accompanied by frailty are often associated with increased rates of morbidity and mortality compared to those without frailty.

Characteristics, management, and mid-term prognosis of older adults with cardiogenic shock admitted to intensive care units: Insights from the FRENSHOCK registry

BACKGROUND

The incidence of heart failure and cardiogenic shock (CS) in older adults is continually increasing due to population aging. To date, prospective data detailing the specific characteristics, management and outcomes of CS in this population are scarce.

METHODS

FRENSHOCK is a prospective registry including 772 CS patients from 49 centers. We studied 1-month and 1-year mortality among patients over 75-year-old, adjusted for independent predictors of 1-month and 1-year mortalities.

RESULTS

Out of 772 patients included, 236 (30.6%) were 75 years old or more (mean age 81.9 ± 4.7 years, 63.6% male). Compared to patients <75 years old, older adults had a higher prevalence of comorbidities including hypertension, dyslipidemia, chronic kidney disease, and history of heart disease. Older adults were characterized by a lower blood pressure, as well as higher creatinine and lower haemoglobin levels at presentation. Yet, they were less likely to be treated with norepinephrine, epinephrine, invasive ventilation, and renal replacement therapy. They showed a higher 1-month (aHR: 2.5 [1.86-3.35], p < 0.01) and 1-year mortality (aHR: 2.01 [1.58-2.56], p < 0.01). Analysis of both 1-month and 1-year mortality stratified by age quartiles showed a gradual relationship between aging and mortality in CS patients.

CONCLUSION

A third of patient with CS in critical care unit are older than 75 years and their risk of death at one month and one year is more than double compared to the younger ones. Further research is essential to identify best therapeutic strategy in this population. NCT02703038.

Age and associated outcomes among patients receiving venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation-analysis of the Extracorporeal Life Support Organization registry

PURPOSE

Venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (V-A ECMO) can be used to support severely ill patients with cardiogenic shock. While age is commonly used in patient selection, little is known regarding its association with outcomes in this population. We sought to evaluate the association between increasing age and outcomes following V-A ECMO.

METHODS

We used individual-level patient data from 440 centers in the international Extracorporeal Life Support Organization registry. We included all adult patients receiving V-A ECMO from 2017 to 2019. The primary outcome was hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes included a composite of complications following initiation of V-A ECMO. We conducted Bayesian analyses of the relationship between increasing age and outcomes of interest.

RESULTS

We included 15,172 patients receiving V-A ECMO. Of these, 8172 (53.9%) died in hospital. For the analysis conducted using weakly informed priors, and as compared to the reference category of age 18-29, the age bracket of 30-39 (odds ratio [OR] 0.94, 95% credible interval [CrI] 0.79-1.10) was not associated with hospital mortality, but age brackets 40-49 (odds ratio [OR] 1.26, 95% CrI: 1.08-1.47), 50-59 (OR 1.78, 95% CrI: 1.55-2.06), 60-69 (OR 2.24, 95% CrI: 1.94-2.59), 70-79 (OR 2.90, 95% CrI: 2.49-3.39) and ≥ 80 (OR 4.02, 95% CrI: 3.13-5.20) were independently associated with increasing hospital mortality. Similar results were found in the analysis conducted with an informative prior, as well as between increasing age and post-ECMO complications.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients receiving V-A ECMO for cardiogenic shock, increasing age is strongly associated with increasing odds of death and complications, and this association emerges as early as 40 years of age.

Age as a predictor of clinical outcomes and determinant of therapeutic measures for emergency medical services treated cardiogenic shock

BACKGROUND

The impact of age on outcomes in cardiogenic shock (CS) is poorly described in the pre-hospital setting. We assessed the impact of age on outcomes of patients treated by emergency medical services (EMS).

METHODS

This population-based cohort study included consecutive adult patients with CS transported to hospital by EMS. Successfully linked patients were stratified into tertiles by age (18-63, 64-77, and > 77 years). Predictors of 30-day mortality were assessed through regression analyses. The primary outcome was 30-day all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 3523 patients with CS were successfully linked to state health records. The average age was 68 ± 16 years and 1398 (40%) were female. Older patients were more likely to have comorbidities including pre-existing coronary artery disease, hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, and cerebrovascular disease. The incidence of CS was significantly greater with increasing age (incidence rate per 100,000 person years 6.47 [95% CI: 6.1-6.8] in age 18-63 years, 34.34 [32.4-36.4] in age 64-77 years, 74.87 [70.6-79.3] in age > 77 years, P < 0.001). There was a step-wise increase in the rate of 30-day mortality with increasing age tertile. After adjustment, compared to the lowest age tertile, patients aged > 77 years had increased risk of 30-day mortality (adjusted hazard ratio = 2.26 [95% CI: 1.96-2.60]). Older patients were less likely to receive inpatient coronary angiography.

CONCLUSION

Older patients with EMS-treated CS have significantly higher rates of short-term mortality. The reduced rates of invasive interventions in older patients underscore the need for further development of systems of care to improve outcomes for this patient group.

Machine Learning for Prediction of Outcomes in Cardiogenic Shock

Objective

The management of cardiogenic shock (CS) in the elderly remains a major clinical challenge. Existing clinical prediction models have not performed well in assessing the prognosis of elderly patients with CS. This study aims to build a predictive model, which could better predict the 30-day mortality of elderly patients with CS.

Methods

We extracted data from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III version 1.4 (MIMIC-III) as the training set and the data of validation sets were collected from the Second Affiliated Hospital and Yuying Children's Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University. Three models, including the cox regression model, the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression model, and the CoxBoost model, were established using the training set. Through the comparison of area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), C index, net reclassification improvement (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and median improvement in risk score, the best model was selected. Then for external validation, compared the best model with the simplified acute physiology score II (SAPSII) and the CardShock risk score.

Results

A total of 919 patients were included in the study, of which 804 patients were in the training set and 115 patients were in the verification set. Using the training set, we built three models: the cox regression model including 6 predictors, the LASSO regression model including 4 predictors, and the CoxBoost model including 16 predictors. Among them, the CoxBoost model had good discrimination [AUC: 0.730; C index: 0.6958 (0.6657, 0.7259)]. Compared with the CoxBoost model, the NRI, IDI, and median improvement in risk score of other models were all<0. In the validation set, the CoxBoost model was also well-discriminated [AUC: 0.770; C index: 0.7713 (0.6751, 0.8675)]. Compared with the CoxBoost model, the NRI, IDI, and median improvement in risk score of SAPS II and the CardShock risk score were all < 0. And we constructed a dynamic nomogram to visually display the model.

Conclusion

In conclusion, this study showed that in predicting the 30-day mortality of elderly CS patients, the CoxBoost model was superior to the Cox regression model, LASSO regression model, SAPS II, and the CardShock risk score.

A Review of Prognosis Model Associated With Cardiogenic Shock After Acute Myocardial Infarction

Objective: Cardiogenic shock seriously affects the survival rate of patients. However, few prognostic models are concerned with the score of cardiogenic shock, and few clinical studies have validated it. In order to optimize the diagnosis and treatment of myocardial infarction complicated with cardiogenic shock and facilitate the classification of clinical trials, the prognosis score model is urgently needed. Methods: Cardiogenic shock, severe case, prognosis score, myocardial infarction and external verification were used as the search terms to search PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane, EBSCO (Medline), Scopus, BMC, NCBI, Oxford Academy, Science Direct, and other databases for pertinent studies published up until 1 August 2021. There are no restrictions on publication status and start date. Filter headlines and abstracts to find articles that may be relevant. The list of references for major studies was reviewed to obtain more references. Results and Conclusions: The existing related models are in urgent need of more external clinical verifications. In the meanwhile, with the development of molecular omics and the clinical need for optimal treatment of CS, it is urgent to establish a prognosis model with higher differentiation and coincidence rates.

Diagnostic biomarkers of dilated cardiomyopathy

BACKGROUND

Dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) is a condition involving dilation of cardiac chambers, which results in contraction impairment. Besides invasive and non-invasive diagnostic procedures, cardiac biomarkers are of great importance in both diagnosis and prognosis of the disease. These biomarkers are categorized into three groups based on their site; cardiomyocyte biomarkers, microenvironmental biomarkers and macroenvironmental biomarkers.

AIMS

In this review, an overview of characteristics, epidemiology, etiology and clinical manifestations of DCM is provided. In addition, the most important biomarkers, of all three categories, and their diagnostic and prognostic values are discussed.

CONCLUSION

Considering the association of DCM with conditions such as infections and autoimmunity, which are prevalent among the population, introducing efficient diagnostic tools is of high value for the early detection of DCM to prevent its severe complications. The three discussed classes of biomarkers are potential candidates for the detection of DCM. However, further studies are necessary in this regard.

Mortality risk prediction in elderly patients with cardiogenic shock: results from the CardShock study

AIMS

This study aimed to assess the utility of contemporary clinical risk scores and explore the ability of two biomarkers [growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) and soluble ST2 (sST2)] to improve risk prediction in elderly patients with cardiogenic shock.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Patients (n = 219) from the multicentre CardShock study were grouped according to age (elderly ≥75 years and younger). Characteristics, management, and outcome between the groups were compared. The ability of the CardShock risk score and the IABP-SHOCK II score to predict in-hospital mortality and the additional value of GDF-15 and sST2 to improve risk prediction in the elderly was evaluated. The elderly constituted 26% of the patients (n = 56), with a higher proportion of women (41% vs. 21%, P < 0.05) and more co-morbidities compared with the younger. The primary aetiology of shock in the elderly was acute coronary syndrome (84%), with high rates of percutaneous coronary intervention (87%). Compared with the younger, the elderly had higher in-hospital mortality (46% vs. 33%; P = 0.08), but 1 year post-discharge survival was excellent in both age groups (90% in the elderly vs. 88% in the younger). In the elderly, the risk prediction models demonstrated an area under the curve of 0.75 for the CardShock risk score and 0.71 for the IABP-SHOCK II score. Incorporating GDF-15 and sST2 improved discrimination for both risk scores with areas under the curve ranging from 0.78 to 0.84.

CONCLUSIONS

Elderly patients with cardiogenic shock have higher in-hospital mortality compared with the younger, but post-discharge outcomes are similar. Contemporary risk scores proved useful for early mortality risk prediction also in the elderly, and risk stratification could be further improved with biomarkers such as GDF-15 or sST2.

Sex differences in patients with cardiogenic shock

Aims

Differences between female and male patients in clinical presentation, causes and treatment of cardiogenic shock (CS) are poorly understood. We aimed to investigate sex differences in presentation with and treatment of CS.

Methods and results

We analysed data of 978 patients presenting with CS to a tertiary care hospital between October 2009 and October 2017. Multivariable adjusted logistic/Cox regression models were fitted to investigate the association between sex and clinical presentation, use of treatments and 30 day mortality.

Median age was 70 years (interquartile range 58–79 years), and 295 (30.2%) patients were female. After adjustment for multiple relevant confounders, female patients were more likely to be older [odds ratio (OR) 1.21, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02–1.42, P = 0.027], but other relevant presentation characteristics did not differ between both sexes. Despite the similar presentation, female patients were less likely to be treated with percutaneous left ventricular assist devices (OR 0.78, 95% CI 0.64–0.94, P = 0.010), but more likely to be treated with catecholamines (OR 1.21, 95% CI 1.02–1.44, P = 0.033) or vasopressors (OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.05–1.50, P = 0.012). A 30 day mortality risk in female patients was as high as in male patients (hazard ratio 1.08, 95% CI 1.00–1.18, P = 0.091).

Conclusions

In this large, contemporary cohort, clinical presentation was comparable in female and male patients, and both sexes were associated with a comparably high mortality risk. Nevertheless, female patients received different treatment for CS and were most importantly less likely to be treated with percutaneous left ventricular assist devices.