The underreporting of hepatocellular carcinoma to the cancer register and a log-linear model to estimate a more correct incidence

Temporal patterns of cancer burden in Asia, 1990-2019: a systematic examination for the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study

Background

Cancers represent a challenging public health threat in Asia. This study examines the temporal patterns of incidence, mortality, disability and risk factors of 29 cancers in Asia in the last three decades.

Methods

The age, sex and year-wise estimates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of 29 cancers for 49 Asian countries from 1990 through 2019 were generated as a part of the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries and Risk Factors 2019 study. Besides incidence, mortality and DALYs, we also examined the cancer burden measured in terms of DALYs and deaths attributable to risk factors, which had evidence of causation with different cancers. The development status of countries was measured using the socio-demographic index. Decomposition analysis was performed to gauge the change in cancer incidence between 1990 and 2019 due to population growth, aging and age-specific incidence rates.

Findings

All cancers combined claimed an estimated 5.6 million [95% uncertainty interval, 5.1-6.0 million] lives in Asia with 9.4 million [8.6-10.2 million] incident cases and 144.7 million [132.7-156.5 million] DALYs in 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of all cancers combined in Asia was 197.6/100,000 [181.0-214.4] in 2019, varying from 99.2/100,000 [76.1-126.0] in Bangladesh to 330.5/100,000 [298.5-365.8] in Cyprus. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) was 120.6/100,000 [110.1-130.7] in 2019, varying 4-folds across countries from 71.0/100,000 [59.9-83.5] in Kuwait to 284.2/100,000 [229.2-352.3] in Mongolia. The age-standardized DALYs rate was 2970.5/100,000 [2722.6-3206.5] in 2019, varying from 1578.0/100,000 [1341.2-1847.0] in Kuwait to 6574.4/100,000 [5141.7-8333.0] in Mongolia. Between 1990 and 2019, deaths due to 17 of the 29 cancers either doubled or more, and 20 of the 29 cancers underwent an increase of 150% or more in terms of new cases. Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (both sexes), breast cancer (among females), colon and rectum cancer (both sexes), stomach cancer (both sexes) and prostate cancer (among males) were among top-5 cancers in most Asian countries in terms of ASIR and ASMR in 2019 and cancers of liver, stomach, hodgkin lymphoma and esophageal cancer posted the most significant decreases in age-standardized rates between 1990 and 2019. Among the modifiable risk factors, smoking, alcohol use, ambient particulate matter (PM) pollution and unsafe sex remained the dominant risk factors between 1990 and 2019. Cancer DALYs due to ambient PM pollution, high body mass index and fasting plasma glucose has increased most notably between 1990 and 2019.

Interpretation

With growing incidence, cancer has become more significant public health threat in Asia, demanding urgent policy attention and guidance. Its heightened risk calls for increased cancer awareness, preventive measures, affordable early-stage detection, and cost-effective therapeutics in Asia. The current study can serve as a useful resource for policymakers and researchers in Asia for devising interventions for cancer management and control.

Funding

The GBD study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Age-specific and sex-specific risks for HCC in African-born persons with chronic hepatitis B without cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

The international recommendations of HCC surveillance for African-born persons with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) without cirrhosis are divergent, probably due to scarce data on incidence rate (IR) for HCC.

METHODS

We assembled a cohort with prospectively collected data of Swedish residents of African origin with diagnosed CHB without cirrhosis at baseline from 1990 to 2015. Data from nationwide registers were used to calculate the sex-specific IR and IR ratio (incidence rate ratios) in relation to age, comorbidities, and birth region, using a generalized linear model with a log-link function and Poisson distribution.

RESULTS

Among 3865 African-born persons with CHB without cirrhosis at baseline, 31 (0.8%; 77.4% men) developed HCC during a median of 11.1 years of follow-up, with poor survival after HCC diagnosis. The mean age at HCC diagnosis was 46.8 (SD±14.7; range 23-79) in men. HCC IR exceeded the recommended surveillance threshold of 0.2%/year at ages 54 and 59 years in men and women, respectively, and at ages 20-40 years if HCV or HDV co-infection was present. African-born men with CHB had an incidence rate ratios of 10.6 (95% CI 4.4-31.5) for HCC compared to matched African-born peers without CHB, and an incidence rate ratios of 35.3 (95% CI 16.0-88.7) compared to a matched general population.

CONCLUSIONS

African-born men with CHB without cirrhosis reached an IR of 0.2%/year between 50 and 60 years, and at younger ages if HCV or HDV co-infection was present. Our findings need further confirmation, and new cost-effectiveness analyses specific for young populations are needed, to provide personalized and cost-effective HCC surveillance.

Familial coaggregation of MASLD with hepatocellular carcinoma and adverse liver outcomes: Nationwide multigenerational cohort study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD; formerly NAFLD) is the fastest growing cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) worldwide. However, whether family members of individuals with MASLD also share an increased risk of developing HCC is unknown.

METHODS

This nationwide multigenerational cohort study involved family members of all Swedish adults diagnosed with biopsy-proven MASLD (1969-2017), and matched general population comparators. Using the Swedish Multi-generation Register, we identified 38,018 first-degree relatives (FDRs: parents, siblings, offspring) and 9,381 spouses of patients with MASLD, as well as 197,303 comparator FDRs and 47,572 comparator spouses. We used Cox proportional hazards models to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for HCC, major adverse liver outcomes (cirrhosis, decompensated liver disease or liver transplantation), liver-related mortality, extrahepatic cancer, and non-liver-related mortality.

RESULTS

Over a median of 17.6 years, the rate of the primary outcome HCC was higher in MASLD FDRs vs. comparator FDRs (13 vs. 8/100,000 person-years [PY]; aHR 1.80, 95% CI 1.36-2.37). The HCC risk was further increased in FDRs of individuals with liver fibrosis/cirrhosis (aHR 2.14, 95% CI 1.07-4.27; PHeterogeneity = 0.03). MASLD FDRs also had higher rates of major adverse liver outcomes (73 vs. 51/100,000 PY; aHR 1.52, 95% CI 1.36-1.69) and liver-related mortality (20 vs. 11/100,000 PY; aHR 2.14, 95% CI 1.67-2.74). MASLD FDRs with any concomitant chronic liver condition experienced accelerated progression of liver disease (aHR 1.47, 95% CI 1.29-1.67). MASLD spouses were at higher risks of major adverse liver outcomes (86 vs. 74/100,000 PY; aHR 1.23, 95% CI 1.01-1.51) and liver-related mortality (25 vs. 19/100,000 PY; aHR 1.93, 95% CI 1.15-3.23), but not of HCC (aHR 1.43, 95% CI 0.87-2.35).

CONCLUSIONS

There is distinct familial clustering of adverse liver-related outcomes in families of individuals with biopsy-proven MASLD, with higher relative risks of HCC, progressive liver disease, and liver-related mortality, but absolute risks are low.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD; formerly termed NAFLD) clusters in families with high genetic susceptibility and shared environmental risk factors, but the risks of developing hepatocellular carcinoma and other major liver-related outcomes in family members of individuals with MASLD are largely unknown. This large nationwide multigenerational cohort study involving family members (first-degree relatives and spouses) of individuals with biopsy-proven MASLD and of matched general population comparators found slightly increased risks of hepatocellular carcinoma in first-degree relatives, and of developing cirrhosis and liver-related mortality in all family members of individuals with biopsy-proven MASLD. The findings of this study provide large-scale evidence to inform clinical practice guidelines for recommendations on the early identification of individuals at higher risk of liver-related morbidity and mortality.

Incidence, prevalence and mortality of chronic liver diseases in Sweden between 2005 and 2019

BACKGROUND

Updated data on the incidence, prevalence, and regional differences of chronic liver disease are missing from many countries. In this study, we aimed to describe time trends, incidence, prevalence, and mortality of a wide range of chronic liver diseases in Sweden.

METHODS

In this register-based, nationwide observational study, patients with a register-based diagnosis of chronic liver disease, during 2005-2019, were retrieved from the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare. Annual age-standardized incidence and mortality rates, and prevalence per 100,000 inhabitants was calculated and stratified on age, sex, and geographical region.

RESULTS

The incidence of alcohol-related cirrhosis increased by 47% (2.6% annually), reaching an incidence rate of 13.1/100,000 inhabitants. The incidence rate of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and unspecified liver cirrhosis increased by 217% and 87% (8.0 and 4.3% annually), respectively, reaching an incidence rate of 15.2 and 18.7/100,000 inhabitants, and a prevalence of 24.7 and 44.8/100,000 inhabitants. Furthermore, incidence rates of chronic hepatitis C declined steeply, but liver malignancies have become more common. The most common causes of liver-related mortality were alcohol-related liver disease and unspecified liver disease.

CONCLUSION

The incidence rates of diagnosed non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, alcohol-related cirrhosis, unspecified liver cirrhosis, and liver malignancies have increased during the last 15 years. Worryingly, mortality in several liver diseases increased, likely reflecting increasing incidences of cirrhosis in spite of a decreasing rate of hepatitis C. Significant disparities exist across sex and geographical regions, which need to be considered when allocating healthcare resources.

Hepatocellular carcinoma in Stockholm, Sweden 2003-2018: a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Available epidemiological data on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) originate mainly from centre-based or disease-specific cohorts and may not reflect the general population. This population-based register study presents the incidence, aetiologies, treatments, survival, and differences related to sex or socioeconomic status in patients with HCC from Stockholm, which constitutes more than a fifth of the Swedish population.

METHODS

ICD-10 codes identified incident HCC cases in the regional administrative health care database 2003-2018. Administrative coding on diseases, socioeconomic status, and dispensed drugs were used to identify risk factors and therapies. Two validation analyses 2014-2015 studied the correctness of register-based aetiologies and reasons for providing only best supportive care (BSC).

RESULTS

We identified 2,245 incident cases of HCC. The incidence increased from 6 to 7.5 per 100,000 inhabitants over the time-period. The most common aetiologies were hepatitis C (26%), non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (22%), and alcohol-related liver disease (19%). Five-year survival probability was 79% after liver transplantation, 60% after resection, and 35% after ablation but <10% for chemoembolization, Sorafenib, and BSC. The proportion receiving any treatment increased but half of the patients only received BSC. At least 14% of potentially treatable HCC (surveillance indicated but not performed) received only BSC 2014-2015. We found no significant differences in treatments or outcomes between socioeconomic groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of HCC is rising in Stockholm, Sweden but is still low by global comparison. Near half of all patients still receive only BSC and study data suggest that surveillance practices are incomplete.

Cohort profile: decoding the epidemiology of liver disease in Sweden (DELIVER)

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Swedish nationwide registries can be used to identify patients with a wide range of diagnoses. This information can be used to construct cohorts useful to determine prognosis and identify risk factors for disease progression. Here, we describe a new register-based cohort of patients with a diverse set of chronic liver disease diagnoses in Sweden.

METHODS

The DELIVER (DEcoding the epidemiology of LIVER disease in sweden) was constructed using extensive data linkages between different Swedish registers, diagnosed between 1964 and 2016. Patients in DELIVER are matched 1:10 to reference individuals from the general population on age, sex, municipality and calendar year of first liver disease diagnosis. Longitudinal cross-linked data from several registers allow for identification of outcomes occurring before or after liver disease diagnosis. Further, since July 2005 all dispensed drugs can be identified.

RESULTS

In total, 307 768 unique individuals with a diagnosis of a chronic liver disease since 1964 were identified, and these were matched with 3 067 714 reference individuals from the general population. As examples, DELIVER contains data on 90 948 patients with a diagnosis of viral hepatitis; 50 593 patients with alcohol-related liver disease and 13 242 patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

CONCLUSIONS

The DELIVER cohort can be used to examine several important research questions. Long-term outcomes of chronic liver diseases, risk factors for disease progression, impact of dispensed drugs, disease panorama and time trends are examples. Here we describe the construction and data availability of DELIVER.

Risk of primary liver cancer in acute hepatic porphyria patients: A matched cohort study of 1244 individuals

BACKGROUND

The acute hepatic porphyrias (AHP) are associated with a risk of primary liver cancer (PLC), but risk estimates are unclear, and what AHP characteristics that predict PLC risk are unknown. In this register-based, matched cohort study, we assessed the PLC risk in relation to biochemical and clinical porphyria severity, genotype, age, and sex.

METHODS

All patients in the Swedish porphyria register with acute intermittent porphyria (AIP), variegate porphyria (VP), or hereditary coproporphyria (HCP) during 1987-2015 were included. This AHP cohort was compared with age-, sex-, and county-matched reference individuals from the general population. National register-based hospital admissions for AHP were used to indicate the clinical severity. For AIP, the most common AHP type, patients were stratified by genotype and urinary porphobilinogen (U-PBG). Incident PLC data were collected from national health registers.

RESULTS

We identified 1244 individuals with AHP (1063 [85%] AIP). During a median follow-up of 19.5 years, we identified 108 incident PLC cases, including 83 AHP patients (6.7%) and 25 of 12,333 reference individuals (0.2%). The adjusted hazard ratio for AHP-PLC was 38.0 (95% confidence interval: 24.3-59.3). Previously elevated U-PBG and hospitalizations for porphyria, but not AIP genotype or sex, were associated with increased PLC risk. Patients aged >50 years with previously elevated U-PBG (n = 157) had an annual PLC incidence of 1.8%.

CONCLUSION

This study confirmed a high PLC risk and identified a strong association with clinical and biochemical AIP activity. Regular PLC surveillance is motivated in patients older than 50 years with a history of active AIP.

Chronic hepatitis B virus infection and the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma by age and country of origin in people living in Sweden: A national register study

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a major risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and surveillance is recommended for patients without cirrhosis when risk exceeds an incidence rate (IR) of 0.2%. Populations in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa have been associated with HCC at younger ages, but the risk after immigration to Western countries should be investigated. The aim of this study was to study HCC by age and country of origin in people with chronic HBV infection in Sweden. Through national registers, residents with chronic HBV diagnosis (1990-2015) were identified with information on country of origin, immigration/emigration, death, coinfections, antiviral therapy, and HCC. Observation time started at HBV diagnosis, and IR and hazard ratios for HCC were calculated by sex, age, and region of origin. Among 16,410 individuals (47% women), the origin and observation time (person years) were as follows: Western Europe, 2316 (25,415); Eastern Europe, 2349 (26,237); Middle East/North Africa, 4402 (47,320); sub-Saharan Africa, 3677 (30,565); Asia, 3537 (35,358); and other, 129 (1277). There were 232 individuals with HCC (82% in men). The IR increased with age and exceeded 0.2% for Asian men from age group 40-49 years (IR, 0.63; 95% confidence interval, 0.39-1.00), for men of other origins from age group 50-59 years, and for women aged ≥60 years originating from Eastern Europe, Asia, and Middle East/North Africa. After exclusion of patients with cirrhosis or HBV treatment, the IR still exceeded 0.2% in Asian men aged 40-49 years. This study demonstrates that HBV-infected men of Asian origin should be recommended HCC surveillance at younger ages, but there is a need for further studies of HCC incidence in African-born men without cirrhosis living in the Western world.

Risk of Cancer in Biopsy-Proven Alcohol-Related Liver Disease: A Population-Based Cohort Study of 3410 Persons

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Persons with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) are at an increased risk of death and liver-related endpoints, but the association with incident cancer is not well understood, and whether it differs across histopathological subgroups is undefined.

METHODS

We investigated the risk of cancer in 3,410 persons with a diagnosis of ALD and an available liver biopsy in Sweden between 1969-2016, compared to a matched reference population. Administrative coding from national registers and liver biopsy data were used to define exposure and outcome status. Competing risk regression, adjusted for available confounders and using non-cancer mortality as the competing risk, was used to estimate subdistribution hazard ratios (sHRs) for incident cancer.

RESULTS

At baseline, persons with ALD had a median age of 58.2 years, 67% were men, and 2,042 (60%) had cirrhosis. ALD was not associated with cancer in general (sHR = 1.01, 95%CI = 0.92-1.11), although the risk was increased in persons surviving ≥1 year (sHR = 1.19, 95% CI = 1.08-1.32). The risk of liver cancer was elevated sHR = 12.80, 95%CI = 9.38-17.45). HCC incidence among ALD persons with cirrhosis was 8.6 cases/1,000 person-years, corresponding to a cumulative incidence after 10 years of 5.0%.

CONCLUSIONS

Persons with biopsy-proven ALD that survive the initial time after diagnosis are at an elevated risk for cancer, in particular HCC compared with the general population. Although the risk for HCC was elevated, data do not suggest that routine surveillance for HCC in ALD cirrhosis is cost-effective.

Risk of hepato-pancreato-biliary cancer is increased by primary sclerosing cholangitis in patients with inflammatory bowel disease: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

There is continued uncertainty regarding the risks of hepato-pancreato-biliary cancers in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) with or without concomitant primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC).

OBJECTIVE

To give updated estimates on risk of hepato-pancreato-biliary cancers in patients with IBD, including pancreatic cancer, hepatocellular carcinoma, gall bladder cancer, and intra - and extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma.

METHODS

In a population-based cohort study, we included all patients diagnosed with IBD in Norway and Sweden from 1987 to 2016. The cohort comprised of 141,960 patients, identified through hospital databases and the National Patient Register. Participants were followed through linkage to national cancer, cause of death, and population registries. We calculated absolute risk and standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) of hepato-pancreato-biliary cancers by PSC and other clinical characteristics.

RESULTS

Of the 141,960 IBD patients, 3.2% were diagnosed with PSC. During a median follow-up of 10.0 years, we identified 443 biliary tract cancers (SIR 5.2, 95% confidence interval [CI] 4.8-5.7), 161 hepatocellular carcinomas (SIR 2.4, 95% CI 2.0-2.7) and 282 pancreatic cancers (SIR 1.3, 95% CI 1.2-1.5). The relative risks were considerably higher in PSC-IBD patients, with SIR of 140 (95% CI 123-159) for biliary tract, 38.6 (95% CI 29.2-50.0) for hepatocellular, and 9.0 (95% CI 6.3-12.6) for pancreatic cancer. The SIRs were still slightly increased in non-PSC-IBD patients, compared to the general population. For biliary tract cancer, the cumulative probability at 25 years was 15.6% in PSC-IBD patients, and 0.4% in non-PSC-IBD patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The dramatically increased risks of hepato-pancreato-biliary cancers in PSC-IBD patients support periodic surveillance for these malignancies. While much lower, the excess relative risks in non-PSC-IBD patients were not trivial compared to non-IBD related risk factors.

Cancer Risk in Patients With Autoimmune Hepatitis: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study With Histopathology

We aimed to determine the risk of incident cancer in autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) compared with the general population and siblings. AIH was defined by the presence of a medical diagnosis of AIH and results of examination of a liver biopsy specimen in a nationwide Swedish population-based cohort study. We identified 5,268 adults with AIH diagnosed during 1969-2016 and 22,996 matched, general population, reference individuals and 4,170 sibling comparators. Using Cox regression, hazard ratios were determined for any incident cancer, and subtypes were determined from the Swedish Cancer Register. During follow-up, a cancer diagnosis was made in 1,119 individuals with AIH (17.2 per 1,000 person-years) and 4,450 reference individuals (12.0 per 1,000 person-years). This corresponded to a hazard ratio of 1.53 (95% confidence interval: 1.42, 1.66). Cancer risk was highest in those with cirrhosis. There was a 29.18-fold increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) (95% confidence interval: 17.52, 48.61). The annual incidence risk of HCC in individuals with AIH who had cirrhosis was 1.1% per year. AIH was also linked to nonmelanoma skin cancer (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.69) and lymphoma (HR = 1.89). Sibling analyses yielded similar risk estimates for any cancer (HR = 1.84) and HCC (HR = 23.10). AIH is associated with an increased risk of any cancer, in particular, HCC and extrahepatic malignancies. The highest risk for cancer, especially HCC, is in patients with cirrhosis.

Robotic-Assisted Surgery for Primary Hepatobiliary Tumors-Possibilities and Limitations

Simple Summary

Primary liver malignancies are some of the most common and fatal tumors today. Robotic-assisted liver surgery is becoming increasingly interesting for both patients and surgeons alike. Up to date, prospective comparative studies around the topic are scarce. This leads us to an ever existing controversy about the efficacy, safety, and economic benefits of robotic surgery as an extension of traditional minimally invasive surgery over open liver surgery. However, there is evidence that robotic-assisted surgery is, after passing the learning curve, equivalent in terms of feasibility and safety, and in some cases superior to traditional laparoscopic hepatic resection. With this work, we want to provide an overview of the latest and most significant reviews and meta-analyses focusing on robotic hepatectomy in primary liver malignancies. We outline the technical aspects of robotic-assisted surgery and place them into the context of technical, surgical, and oncological outcomes compared with laparoscopic and open resection. When chosen per case individually, any hepatic resection can be performed robotically to overcome limitations of laparoscopic surgery by an experienced team. In this paper, we propose that prospective studies are needed to prove efficacy for robotic-assisted resection in liver malignancy.

Abstract

Hepatocellular and cholangiocellular carcinoma are fatal primary hepatic tumors demanding extensive liver resection. Liver surgery is technically challenging due to the complex liver anatomy, with an intensive and variant vascular and biliary system. Therefore, major hepatectomies in particular are often performed by open resection and minor hepatectomies are often performed minimally invasively. More centers have adopted robotic-assisted surgery, intending to improve the laparoscopic surgical limits, as it offers some technical benefits such as seven degrees of freedom and 3D visualization. The da Vinci^® Surgical System has dominated the surgical robot market since 2000 and has shown surgical feasibility, but there is still much controversy about its economic benefits and real benefits for the patient over the gold standard. The currently available retrospective case studies are difficult to compare, and larger, prospective studies and randomized trials are still urgently missing. Therefore, here we summarize the technical, surgical, and economic outcomes of robotic versus open and laparoscopic hepatectomies for primary liver tumors found in the latest literature reviews and meta-analyses. We conclude that complex robotic liver resections (RLR) are safe and feasible after the steep learning curve of the surgical team has plateaued. The financial burden is lower in high volume centers and is expected to decrease soon as new surgical systems will enter the market.

Cancer Risk in Patients With Biopsy-Confirmed Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A Population-Based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Recent studies link NAFLD to an increased incidence of HCC and extrahepatic cancers. However, earlier studies were small or lacked liver histology, which remains the gold standard for staging NAFLD severity.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We conducted a population-based cohort study of all adults with histologically defined NAFLD in Sweden from 1966 to 2016 (N = 8,892). NAFLD was defined from prospectively recorded liver histopathology submitted to all 28 Swedish pathology departments and categorized as simple steatosis, nonfibrotic NASH, noncirrhotic fibrosis, and cirrhosis. NAFLD patients were individually matched to ≤5 general population controls without NAFLD by age, sex, calendar year, and county (N = 39,907). Using Cox proportional hazards modeling, we calculated multivariable adjusted HRs (aHRs) and 95% CIs. Over a median of 13.8 years, we documented 1,691 incident cancers among NAFLD patients and 6,733 among controls. Compared with controls, NAFLD patients had significantly increased overall cancer incidence (10.9 vs. 13.8 per 1,000 person-years [PYs]; difference = 2.9 per 1,000 PYs; aHR, 1.27 [95% CI, 1.18-1.36]), driven primarily by HCC (difference = 1.1 per 1,000 PYs; aHR, 17.08 [95% CI, 11.56-25.25]). HCC incidence rates increased monotonically across categories of simple steatosis, nonfibrotic NASH, noncirrhotic fibrosis, and cirrhosis (0.8 per 1,000 PYs, 1.2 per 1,000 PYs, 2.3 per 1,000 PYs, and 6.2 per 1,000 PYs, respectively; P_trend  < 0.01) and were further amplified by diabetes (1.2 per 1,000 PYs, 2.9 per 1,000 PYs, 7.2 per 1,000 PYs, and 15.7 per 1,000 PYs, respectively). In contrast, NAFLD was associated with modestly increased rates of pancreatic cancer, kidney/bladder cancer, and melanoma (differences = 0.2 per 1,000 PYs, 0.1 per 1,000 PYs, and 0.2 per 1,000 PYs, respectively), but no other cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with controls, patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD had significantly increased cancer incidence, attributable primarily to HCC, whereas the contribution of extrahepatic cancers was modest. Although HCC risk was highest with cirrhosis, substantial excess risk was also found with noncirrhotic fibrosis and comorbid diabetes.

Estimating regional prevalence of chronic hepatitis C with a capture-recapture analysis

Background

The hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a candidate disease for micro-elimination. Accurate baseline HCV prevalence estimation is essential to monitor progress to micro-elimination but can be methodologically challenging in low-endemic regions like the Netherlands due to lack of disaggregated data by age or risk-groups on the number of chronic HCV patients (i.e. HCV RNA positive). This study estimates the number of patients that has had a chronic HCV infection (ever-chronic) in the Utrecht region of the Netherlands.

Methods

In the Utrecht province in the Netherlands, positive HCV tests from the period 2001–2015 from one diagnostic center and four hospital laboratories were collected. A two-source capture-recapture method was used to analyze the overlap between the two registries (with 92% HCV RNA and 8% HCV immunoblot confirmed infections) to obtain the number of ever-chronic HCV infections in the Utrecht region. The Utrecht region was defined as an area with a 25 km radius from the Utrecht city center. The current viremic HCV prevalence was calculated by taking into account the proportion of cured and deceased HCV patients from a local HCV retrieval (REACH) project.

Results

The estimated number of ever-chronic HCV patients was 1245 (95% CI 1164–1326) and would indicate a prevalence of 0.10 (95% CI 0.09–0.10) in the Utrecht region. This is 30% (95% CI 21–38%) more than the number of known HCV patients in the records. The ever-chronic HCV prevalence was highest in the 1960–1969 age cohort (0.16; 95% CI 0.14–0.18). Since 50% of the HCV patients were cured or deceased in the REACH-project, the number of current viremic HCV patients was estimated at 623 individuals in the Utrecht region (prevalence 0.05%).

Conclusion

The results of this study suggest a low ever-chronic and current HCV prevalence in the Utrecht area in the Netherlands, but other studies need to confirm this.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-06324-z.

Epidemiological projections of viral-induced hepatocellular carcinoma in the perspective of WHO global hepatitis elimination

Hepatitis B is an eminent risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, whereas hepatitis C is a key risk factor for HCC in Western Europe and North America. Increased awareness of the global burden of viral hepatitis resulted, in May 2016, in the adoption of the first global health sector strategy on viral hepatitis by the World Health Assembly, which calls for the elimination of viral hepatitis as a public health threat by 2030. Although the incidence of liver cancer resulting from viral infections has increased since the 1990s, the implementation of public health interventions, such as hepatitis B vaccination and antiviral therapies might have reduced the global burdens of HCC. Hepatitis B immunization in infancy has been associated with a reduction in the risk of infant fulminant hepatitis, chronic liver disease, and HCC in Taiwan. Achieving viral hepatitis elimination by 2030 can be accelerated by improving the access to HCC screening programs. HCC surveillance programs in developed countries must be refined to increase an access to personalized surveillance program, whereas the limited access to surveillance and treatment of HCC in developing countries remains a significant public health issue.

The Threat of Multiple Liver Carcinogens in the Population of Laos: A Review

Laos is a landlocked country in South East Asia, ranking fifth for primary liver cancer incidence worldwide. Risk factors that might explain this worrying situation are poorly known. We conducted a review of the literature concerning the etiologies of terminal liver diseases in Laos. A double infectious burden with hepatitis B and C viruses and the liver fluke Opisthorchis viverrini seems to be the main cause of the high liver cancer incidence. Moreover, it was also suggested that mutagenic substances frequently found in tobacco, alcoholic beverages, fermented fish, and mold-contaminated cereals or nuts, which are all substances heavily consumed by Lao people, lead to the accumulation of DNA mutations in the liver cell genome causing tumor processes. However, the respective proportions of liver cancer cases attributable to each category of infections and substances consumed, as well as the histological nature of the neoplasia are still not precisely documented in Laos. The international medical and scientific communities as well as public health stakeholders should urgently consider the alarming situation of liver health in Laos to stimulate both research and subsequent implementation of prevention policies.

Prevalence of chronic pain in opioid-maintained patients using the capture-recapture method: a nationwide population-based study

Few studies all based on classical surveys have provided prevalence estimates of chronic pain (CP) in opioid-maintained patients (OMPs) but often had a limited patient sample size and a great variability in the prevalence estimates. This study sought to assess the prevalence of CP in the exhaustive population of OMPs using the capture-recapture method applied to the French nationwide health care database. Capture-recapture methods are increasingly used to estimate the prevalence of chronic conditions but have never been used in the specific context of CP in OMPs. Three large medical-administrative sources were used: the prescription drug database (A-list), the national hospital discharge database (M-list), and the pain center database (C-list). Between 2015 and 2016, 160,429 OMPs aged 15 years and older were identified and age- and sex-matched with 160,429 non-OMPs. All patients treated with analgesic drugs for ≥6 months (A-list) or diagnosed with CP (M- and C-list) were included. Capture-recapture analyses were performed to yield CP estimates with their 95% confidence intervals using log-linear models. In 2015 to 2016, 12,765 OMPs and 2938 non-OMPs with CP were captured. Most patients were male (67%) in OMPs and non-OMPs; median ages for OMPs and non-OMPs were 46 (interquartile range: 38-51) and 48 (41-53) years, respectively. The CP prevalence estimated in OMPs and non-OMPs ranged from 23.6% (14.9-46.2) to 32.1% (28.6-36.3) and from 7.28% (3.98-18.4) to 9.32% (7.42-12.1), respectively. This first study on CP in the exhaustive population of OMPs using the capture-recapture method demonstrated a high prevalence of CP in OMPs, 3- to 4-fold than in the general population.

Underestimation of hepatocellular carcinoma incidence resulting from a competition between modern and traditional medicine: the case of Gabon

Primary liver cancer, particularly hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), remains a major killer in sub-Saharan Africa. In this dreadful landscape, West and Central Africas are more particularly affected. However, a small country located on the equator, Gabon, is apparently not concerned by this adverse situation. Despite worrying prevalences of many bona fide risk factors of HCC, including high rates of chronic infections with hepatitis viruses and very high alcohol consumption, Gabon presents theoretically an amazingly low incidence of HCC when compared to other countries of the region. Reports from many places in the world have emphasized the widespread underreporting of HCC cases presumably attributable to the difficulties of proper diagnosis or to a lack of local cancer registry. In Gabon, the remarkably vivid tradition of religious initiation called Bwiti includes some therapeutic rituals exerted by healers or Ngangas. Those treatments are particularly popular in case of severe diseases generally associated with a supernatural etiology. In the present paper, we hypothesize that, in Gabon, the remarkably low incidence of HCC is primarily due to the diversion of patients from the modern medical system due to their preference for Ngangas. Promotion of a form of medical syncretism respecting both systems might be an efficient policy to increase the attractiveness of modern medicine and to ultimately promote public health in Gabon.

Burden of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in Canada, 2019-2030: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) account for a growing proportion of liver disease cases, and there is a need to better understand future disease burden. We used a modelling framework to forecast the burden of disease of NAFLD and NASH for Canada.

METHODS

We used a Markov model to forecast fibrosis progression from stage F0 (no fibrosis) to stage F4 (compensated cirrhosis) and subsequent progression to decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation and liver-related death among Canadians with NAFLD from 2019 to 2030. We used historical trends for obesity prevalence among adults to estimate longitudinal changes in the number of incident NAFLD cases.

RESULTS

The model projected that the number of NAFLD cases would increase by 20% between 2019 and 2030, from an estimated 7 757 000 cases to 9 305 000 cases. Increases in advanced fibrosis cases were relatively greater, as the number of model-estimated prevalent stage F3 cases would increase by 65%, to 357 000, and that of prevalent stage F4 cases would increase by 95%, to 195 000. Estimated incident cases of hepatocellular carcinoma and decompensated cirrhosis would increase by up to 95%, and the number of annual NAFLD-related deaths would double, to 5600.

INTERPRETATION

Increasing rates of obesity translate into increasing NAFLD-related cases of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma and related mortality. Prevention efforts should be aimed at reducing the incidence of NAFLD and slowing fibrosis progression among those already affected.

Association of Aspirin with Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Liver-Related Mortality

BACKGROUND

More information is needed about the long-term effects of low-dose aspirin (≤160 mg) on incident hepatocellular carcinoma, liver-related mortality, and gastrointestinal bleeding in persons with chronic hepatitis B or hepatitis C virus infection.

METHODS

Using nationwide Swedish registries, we identified all adults who received a diagnosis of chronic hepatitis B or hepatitis C from 2005 through 2015 and who did not have a history of aspirin use (50,275 patients). Patients who were starting to take low-dose aspirin (14,205 patients) were identified by their first filled prescriptions for 90 or more consecutive doses of aspirin. We constructed a propensity score and applied inverse probability of treatment weighting to balance baseline characteristics between groups. Using Cox proportional-hazards regression modeling, we estimated the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma and liver-related mortality, accounting for competing events.

RESULTS

With a median of 7.9 years of follow-up, the estimated cumulative incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma was 4.0% among aspirin users and 8.3% among nonusers of aspirin (difference, -4.3 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], -5.0 to -3.6; adjusted hazard ratio, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.62 to 0.76). This inverse association appeared to be duration-dependent; as compared with short-term use (3 months to <1 year), the adjusted hazard ratios were 0.90 (95% CI, 0.76 to 1.06) for 1 to less than 3 years of use, 0.66 (95% CI, 0.56 to 0.78) for 3 to less than 5 years of use, and 0.57 (95% CI, 0.42 to 0.70) for 5 or more years of use. Ten-year liver-related mortality was 11.0% among aspirin users and 17.9% among nonusers (difference, -6.9 percentage points [95% CI, -8.1 to -5.7]; adjusted hazard ratio, 0.73 [95% CI, 0.67 to 0.81]). However, the 10-year risk of gastrointestinal bleeding did not differ significantly between users and nonusers of aspirin (7.8% and 6.9%, respectively; difference, 0.9 percentage points; 95% CI, -0.6 to 2.4).

CONCLUSIONS

In a nationwide study of patients with chronic viral hepatitis in Sweden, use of low-dose aspirin was associated with a significantly lower risk of hepatocellular carcinoma and lower liver-related mortality than no use of aspirin, without a significantly higher risk of gastrointestinal bleeding. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others.).

Hepatitis C Virus Infection and the Temporal Trends in the Risk of Liver Cancer: A National Register-Based Cohort Study in Sweden

BACKGROUND

In many countries, including Sweden, the birth cohorts with the highest prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection have now reached the ages with high risk of primary liver cancer (PLC). The aims of this study were to investigate the temporal trends in PLC incidence and the relative risks of PLC among people diagnosed with HCV infection between 1990 and 2015.

METHODS

The HCV cohort (n = 52,853) was compared with a matched non-HCV comparison cohort (n = 523,649). Both the national Cancer Register (CR) and Cause of Death Register (DR) were used for follow-up. The crude and age-standardized PLC incidence rates were calculated. The relative risk was estimated as standardized incidence ratios (SIR) and as HRs using stratified Cox hazards regression.

RESULTS

There were 1,609 with PLC diagnosis in the HCV cohort; the annual number increased continuously with the crude incidence rate reaching 4.56 per 1,000 person-years in 2013 while remaining low and stable in the comparison cohort. In the HCV cohort, the age-standardized PLC incidence rates per 1,000 person-years remained relatively constant at 2.64 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.54-3.75] in 2000 and 3.31 (2.51-4.12) in 2014. The highest SIR was 73 (65.9-79.5) among those infected for 35 to 40 years; and the highest HR was 65.9 (55.9-77.6) for men and 62.2 (31.9-121.1) for women.

CONCLUSIONS

There was a considerable increase in PLC incidence over time and an extremely high relative risk in the population with HCV infection for more than 35 years.

IMPACT

The national HCV-associated PLC incidence should be monitored in future studies to evaluate the effect of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment.

Characterization of liver nodules in patients with chronic liver disease by MRI: performance of the Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System (LI-RADS v.2018) scale and its comparison with the Likert scale

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the performance of the LI-RADS v.2018 scale by comparing it with the Likert scale, in the characterization of liver lesions.

METHODS

A total of 39 patients with chronic liver disease underwent MR examination for characterization of 44 liver lesions. Images were independently analyzed by two radiologists using the LI-RADS scale and by another two radiologists using the Likert scale. The reference standard used was either histopathological evaluation or a 4-year MRI follow-up. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed.

RESULTS

The LI-RADS scale obtained an accuracy of 80%, a sensitivity of 72%, a specificity of 93%, a positive predictive value (PPV) of 93% and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 70%, while the Likert scale achieved an accuracy of 79%, a sensitivity of 73%, a specificity of 87%, a PPV of 89% and a NPV of 70%. The area under the curve (AUC) was 85% for the LI-RADS scale and 83% for the Likert scale. The inter-observer agreement was strong (k = 0.89) between the LI-RADS evaluators and moderate (k = 0.69) between the Likert evaluators.

CONCLUSIONS

There was no statistically significant difference between the performances of the two scales; nevertheless, we suggest that the LI-RADS scale be used, as it appeared more objective and consistent.

Risk and outcome of hepatocellular carcinoma in liver cirrhosis in Southern Sweden: a population-based study

Background and aims: Liver cirrhosis is a risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). While the HCC risk is thought to be highest in hepatitis B and hepatitis C, the risk in other cirrhosis etiologies is not fully established. Therefore, we aimed to study the risk and outcome of HCC in alcoholic cirrhosis compared to cirrhosis of other etiologies, in Sweden. Material and methods: We used population-based medical registries to identify patients diagnosed with cirrhosis in the Scania region in southern Sweden between 2001 and 2010. Medical records were reviewed to identify all HCC cases and to register clinical parameters. All patients were followed until death, emigration or December 2017. Results: The cohort comprised 1317 patients with cirrhosis. A total of 200 patient developed HCC, including 75 with prevalent HCC. The annual incidence of HCC after six months was 1.5% in alcoholic cirrhosis and 4.7% in hepatitis C cirrhosis. In alcoholic cirrhosis, 40 patients were diagnosed with HCC during follow-up, of which 15 patients fulfilled the Milan criteria and 10 received treatment, curative or palliative. The overall median survival after HCC diagnosis was 7.7 months, with 4.5, 11 and 9.3 months, in cirrhosis due to alcohol, hepatitis C or remaining causes, respectively. Conclusion: We find an annual incidence of HCC in alcoholic cirrhosis of 1.5% indicating need for surveillance in these patients. Survival after HCC diagnosis was worst in alcoholic cirrhosis due to more advanced stage at diagnosis with few patients eligible for treatment.

Central nervous system tumor registration in the Swedish Cancer Register and Inpatient Register between 1990 and 2014

Background

The Swedish Cancer Register (SCR) is characterized by excellent quality and completeness overall, but the quality of the reporting may vary according to tumor site and age, and may change over time. The aim of the current study was to investigate the completeness of the reporting of central nervous system (CNS) tumor cases to the SCR.

Materials and methods

Individuals hospitalized for a CNS tumor between 1990 and 2014 were identified using the Inpatient Register; the proportion of identified cases that did not have any cancer diagnosis reported to the SCR was subsequently assessed.

Results

Between 1990 and 2014, 58,698 individuals were hospitalized for a CNS tumor, and a large proportion of them did not have any cancer diagnosis reported to the SCR (26%). This discrepancy was particularly pronounced for benign tumors and among elderly patients (over 30%). It was substantially lower for malignant brain tumors among adults (10%); moreover, no increase in the discrepancy between the two registers was observed in this group during the study period. Similar findings were found when assessing the concordance between the Cause of Death Register and the SCR. Among CNS tumor patients who were not reported to the SCR, a large proportion had only one hospital discharge diagnosis containing a CNS tumor (35%) and were less likely to be found in the Outpatient Register, which indicates that a large proportion of patients may have received an erroneous diagnosis.

Conclusion

While a large proportion of CNS tumor patients were not reported to the SCR, the discrepancy between the SCR and the Inpatient Register was relatively small for malignant brain tumors among adults and has remained stable throughout the study period. We do not recommend that data from the Inpatient Register are combined with the SCR to estimate CNS tumor incidence, without proper confirmation of the diagnoses, as a considerable proportion of CNS tumor diagnoses registered in the Inpatient Register is unlikely to reflect true CNS tumors.

Therapeutic applications of selenium-derived compounds

Selenium is a biocompatible element and participates in several biochemical reactions occurring in the human body. Its biocompatibility and minimal toxicity has attracted researchers to develop selenium-based drugs. Hence, recent developments on biomedical applications of selenium-based compounds have been discussed. A structure activity relationship has also been interpreted.

Cholangiocarcinoma - evolving concepts and therapeutic strategies

Cholangiocarcinoma is a disease entity comprising diverse epithelial tumours with features of cholangiocyte differentiation: cholangiocarcinomas are categorized according to anatomical location as intrahepatic (iCCA), perihilar (pCCA), or distal (dCCA). Each subtype has a distinct epidemiology, biology, prognosis, and strategy for clinical management. The incidence of cholangiocarcinoma, particularly iCCA, has increased globally over the past few decades. Surgical resection remains the mainstay of potentially curative treatment for all three disease subtypes, whereas liver transplantation after neoadjuvant chemoradiation is restricted to a subset of patients with early stage pCCA. For patients with advanced-stage or unresectable disease, locoregional and systemic chemotherapeutics are the primary treatment options. Improvements in external-beam radiation therapy have facilitated the treatment of cholangiocarcinoma. Moreover, advances in comprehensive whole-exome and transcriptome sequencing have defined the genetic landscape of each cholangiocarcinoma subtype. Accordingly, promising molecular targets for precision medicine have been identified, and are being evaluated in clinical trials, including those exploring immunotherapy. Biomarker-driven trials, in which patients are stratified according to anatomical cholangiocarcinoma subtype and genetic aberrations, will be essential in the development of targeted therapies. Targeting the rich tumour stroma of cholangiocarcinoma in conjunction with targeted therapies might also be useful. Herein, we review the evolving developments in the epidemiology, pathogenesis, and management of cholangiocarcinoma.

Hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis C and cirrhosis in Denmark: A nationwide cohort study

Cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C increases the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and surveillance with ultrasound (US) and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is recommended. This study aimed to estimate changes in the HCC incidence rate (IR) over time, HCC stage and prognosis, and AFP and US performed in patients with hepatitis C and cirrhosis. Eligible patients were identified in the Danish Database for Hepatitis B and C, and data from national health registries and patient charts were obtained. Tumour stage was based on Barcelona-Clinic Liver Cancer stage, TNM classification and size and number of lesions combined into stages 0-3. We included 1075 patients with hepatitis C and cirrhosis, free of HCC and liver transplant at baseline. During 4988 person years (PY), 115 HCC cases were diagnosed. The HCC incidence rate increased from 0.8/100 PY [CI95% 0.4-1.5] in 2002-2003 to 2.9/100 PY [2.4-3.4] in 2012-2013. One-year cumulative incidence of at least one AFP or US was 53% among all patients. The positive predictive value of an AFP ≥ 20 ng mL^-1 was 17%. Twenty-three (21%) patients were diagnosed with early-stage HCC (stage 0/1) and 84 (79%) with late stage. Median survival after HCC for early-stage HCC disease was 30.1 months and 7.4 months for advanced HCC (stage 2/3). The incidence rate of HCC increased over time among patients with hepatitis C and cirrhosis in Denmark. Application of AFP and US was suboptimal, and most patients were diagnosed with advanced HCC with a poor prognosis.

Liver-related morbidity and mortality in patients with chronic hepatitis C and cirrhosis with and without sustained virologic response

BACKGROUND

Chronic hepatitis C (CHC) causes liver cirrhosis in 5%-20% of patients, leading to increased morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to estimate liver-related morbidity and mortality among patients with CHC and cirrhosis in Denmark with and without antiviral treatment and sustained virologic response (SVR). Furthermore we aimed to estimate the rate of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and decompensation associated with certain prognostic factors.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients with CHC and cirrhosis registered in the Danish Database for Hepatitis B and C were eligible. Cirrhosis was based on liver biopsy, transient elastography, and clinical cirrhosis. Data were extracted from nationwide registries. The study period was from 2002 until 2013.

RESULTS

Of 1,038 patients included, 716 (69%) were male and the median age was 52 years. Median follow-up was 3.8 years, 360 patients died, and 233 of 519 treated patients achieved SVR. Alcohol overuse and hepatitis C virus genotype 3 were associated with an increased incidence rate (IR) of HCC, whereas diabetes and alcohol overuse were associated with increased IRs of decompensation. Achieving SVR reduced all-cause mortality (adjusted mortality rate ratio 0.68 [95% CI 0.43-1.09]) and liver-related mortality (mortality rate ratio 0.6 [95% CI 0.36-1]), as well as liver-related morbidity with adjusted IR ratios of 0.37 (95% CI 0.22-0.62) for HCC and 0.31 (95% CI 0.17-0.57) for decompensation. The IRs of HCC and decompensation remained elevated in patients with alcohol overuse after SVR.

CONCLUSION

Alcohol overuse, hepatitis C genotype 3, and diabetes were associated with liver-related morbidity in patients with CHC and cirrhosis. SVR markedly reduced liver-related morbidity and mortality; however, special attention to patients with alcohol overuse should continue after SVR.

Hepatic resection for primary and secondary liver malignancies

Liver surgery has become the standard treatment of primary liver cancer and liver metastases from colorectal cancer. Also, patients with non-colorectal liver metastases are increasingly offered surgery due to the low morbidity and excellent long-term results. The evolution of two-stage procedures helps to increase resectability. Also, laparoscopic and robotic liver surgery are constantly developed.