Predicting Liver-Related Outcomes in People With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: The Prognostic Value of Noninvasive Fibrosis Tests

Prognostic value of liver stiffness in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Liver stiffness measurement, assessed by vibration-controlled transient elastography, has been recognized as a powerful tool for liver fibrosis assessment. The potential of liver stiffness measurement to predict clinically relevant outcomes in fatty liver disease has received considerable attention. This study aimed to investigate the prediction of liver-related events in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease patients by liver stiffness measurement value on transient elastography.

METHODS

We systematically searched the Electronic databases including PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, and ClinicalTrials.gov until 6 September 2023. The hazard ratios adjusted for confounders were extracted and pooled by random-effects model analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 20587 individuals from 7 studies were included. The pooled HRs were 18.65 (95% CI 9.95-34.95, P < 0.01, I2 = 0%) in the stratification analysis of the highest versus lowest liver stiffness measurement categories. In 1-kPa analysis, the risk of liver-related events was increased with 1 kPa increment (HR 1.05, 95% CI 1.03-1.07, P < 0.01, I2 = 74.47%).

CONCLUSIONS

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease patients with high liver stiffness measurement values were at an increased risk of liver-related events. Liver stiffness measurement can be used as a prognostic tool to achieve risk stratification in fatty liver patients.

AST to ALT ratio as a prospective risk predictor for liver cirrhosis in patients with chronic HBV infection

BACKGROUND

Serum aspartate aminotransferase (AST) to alanine aminotransferase (ALT) ratio (AAR) is one of the most frequent indicators to discriminate fibrosis and cirrhosis. However, the results remained controversial. The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive effect of AAR on hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related cirrhosis development.

METHOD

A retrospective cohort study was conducted based on 1754 chronic HBV-infected patients. Clinical variables at their initial visit and follow-up data were collected. Cox proportional hazards model was constructed to evaluate the predictive value of AAR on cirrhosis risk, and its discrimination accuracy was determined by receiver operating characteristic (ROC). The time-dependent effect was assessed by a Fine and Gray competing risk model.

RESULTS

Compared to patients with lower AAR, those with elevated AAR level had higher risk of cirrhosis development by adjusting for host characteristics (dichotomized analyses: hazard ratio = 2.77, P = 8.25 × 10 -4 ; tertile analyses: hazard ratio = 2.95, P = 1.61 × 10 -3 ), with an increasing risk trend ( Ptrend = 4.56 × 10 -4 ). The effect remained prominent when ALT or AST was abnormal, while no significant risk was observed when AST and ALT were simultaneously normal. Time-dependent effect analysis demonstrated a persistently higher risk, with the average hazard ratio equivalent to 1.92. AAR level could improve the discrimination efficacy of host variables with area under the curve increased from 0.684 to 0.711 ( P  =  0.039 ).

CONCLUSION

Higher AAR was significantly associated with increased risk of HBV-related cirrhosis, and might be a potential predictor of cirrhosis development.

The Use of Noninvasive Velacur® for Discriminating between Volunteers and Patients with Chronic Liver Disease: A Feasibility Study

Background and Aims

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease is the leading cause of chronic liver disease globally and can progress to cirrhosis, liver failure, and liver cancer. Current AASLD, AGA, and ADA guidelines recommend assessment for liver fibrosis in all patients with NAFLD. Serum biomarkers for fibrosis, while widely available, have notable limitations. Imaging-based noninvasive testing for liver fibrosis/cirrhosis is more accurate and is becoming more widespread.

Methods

We evaluated the feasibility of a novel shear wave absolute vibroelastography (S-WAVE) modality called Velacur® for assessing liver stiffness measurement (LSM) for fibrosis and attenuation coefficient estimation (ACE) in differentiating patients with chronic liver disease from normal healthy controls.

Results

Fifty-four healthy controls and 89 patients with NAFLD or cured HCV with a prior known LSM of >8 kPa were enrolled, and all subjects were evaluated with FibroScan® and Velacur®. Velacur® was able to discriminate patients with increased liver stiffness as determined by a FibroScan® score of >8 kPa from healthy controls with an AUC of 0.938 (0.88-0.96). For assessment of steatosis in NAFLD patients only, Velacur® could identify patients with steatosis from healthy controls with an AUC of 0.831 (0.777-0.880). The Velacur® scan quality assessment was superior in healthy controls, as compared to patients, and the scan quality, as assessed by the quality factor (QF) and interquartile range (IQR)/median, was affected by BMI. Velacur® was safe and well tolerated by patients, and there were no adverse events.

Conclusion

Velacur® assessment of liver stiffness measurement and liver attenuation is comparable to results obtained by FibroScan® and is an alternative technology for monitoring liver fibrosis progression in patients with chronic liver disease. This trial is registered with NCT03957070.

Derivation and validation of Transform equations to convert historical Enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) scores to modern equivalents

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The Siemens Healthineers ELF™ Test was designed in 2004 with 2 algorithms to allow choice in histological alignment. Consequently, historical and modern algorithms are not fully harmonized, complicating comparisons involving early datasets. We derived transform equations to equate all ELF score versions, allowing historical data to be used in systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

METHODS

Historical ELF equations were graphed pairwise versus their modern equivalent to assess correlation and derive four transforms. Transforms were validated using multiple datasets and evaluated for median absolute bias, number of samples reflecting clinically significant bias, number of discordant samples, bias at established cutoffs, and regression slope and y-intercept.

RESULTS

Three transforms were validated equating Scheuer-aligned and/or age-included historical ELF equations (Immuno 1) to later equations aligned to Ishak and omitting age. A fourth transform corrected ADVIA Centaur® / Atellica® IM ELF scores miscalculated using the Scheuer Immuno 1 equation. Transformed data were well within allowable ELF bias limits.

CONCLUSIONS

All transforms enabled accurate comparison of ELF scores generated by all historical algorithms to the current ADVIA Centaur / Atellica IM Analyzer ELF score. The transforms presented in this report should be used in systematic reviews and meta-analyses to facilitate comparisons to historical data.

Identification of High-Risk Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in Endocrinology Clinics

The twin epidemics of obesity and type 2 diabetes continue to increase worldwide, so does the associated chronic liver disease, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Although NAFLD has been thought of as a benign liver disease, current evidence suggests that it is a complex liver disease that, for approximately 20% of patients, can progress to fibrosis, cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplant, and death. It is important to note that, given NAFLD's association with metabolic syndrome, the number one cause of death among those with NAFLD is related to cardiovascular diseases. In addition, NAFLD is associated with impaired patient-reported outcomes and a significant economic burden. As such, efforts are now aimed at using noninvasive tests (NITs) to identify patients with NAFLD and those who are at risk of liver disease progression and adverse outcomes in endocrinology practices whereby appropriate risk stratification and referrals can be undertaken. In this review, we discuss the most common NITs used and provide a simple clinically relevant algorithm using these NITs to identify patients with NAFLD who are at risk of adverse outcomes and subsequent clinical management and referral.

ABDA Score: A Non-invasive Model to Identify Subjects with Fibrotic Non-alcoholic Steatohepatitis in the Community

Background

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are prevalent in the community, especially among those with metabolic syndrome. Patients with fibrotic NASH are at increased risk of liver-related-events. Currently available non-invasive tests have not been utilized for screening for fibrotic NASH among the community. We aimed to develop a screening tool for fibrotic NASH among community members.

Methods

We included two large cohorts aimed at assessing cardiovascular disease among community members. Fibrotic NASH was defined using the FibroScan-aspartate aminotransferase score of ≥0.67 that identifies ≥F2 fibrosis and a non-alcoholic fatty liver disease activity score ≥4 with a specificity of 90%. Metabolic parameters, biochemical tests and anthropometry were used to develop a multivariate model.

Results

The derivation cohort (n = 1660) included a population with a median age 45 years, 42.5% males, metabolic syndrome in 66% and 2.7% (n = 45) with fibrotic NASH. Multivariate analysis identified the four significant variables (Age, body mass index , Diabetes and alanine aminotransferas levels) used to derive an ABDA score. The score had high diagnostic accuracy (the area under receiver-operating characteristic curve, 0.952) with adequate internal validity. An ABDA score ≥-3.52 identified fibrotic NASH in the derivation cohort with a sensitivity and specificity of 88.9% and 88.3%. The score was validated in a second cohort (n = 357) that included 21 patients (5.9%) with fibrotic NASH, where it demonstrated a high area under receiver-operating characteristic curve (0.948), sensitivity (81%) and specificity (89.3%).

Conclusions

ABDA score utilizes four easily available parameters to identify fibrotic NASH with high accuracy in the community.

Exploring Opportunities to Enhance the Screening and Surveillance of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) through Risk Stratification Algorithms Incorporating Ultrasound Elastography

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), with its progressive form, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), has emerged as a significant public health concern, affecting over 30% of the global population. Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), a complication associated with both cirrhotic and non-cirrhotic NAFLD, has shown a significant increase in incidence. A substantial proportion of NAFLD-related HCC occurs in non-cirrhotic livers, highlighting the need for improved risk stratification and surveillance strategies. This comprehensive review explores the potential role of liver ultrasound elastography as a risk assessment tool for HCC development in NAFLD and highlights the importance of effective screening tools for early, cost-effective detection and improved management of NAFLD-related HCC. The integration of non-invasive tools and algorithms into risk stratification strategies could have the capacity to enhance NAFLD-related HCC screening and surveillance effectiveness. Alongside exploring the potential advancement of non-invasive tools and algorithms for effectively stratifying HCC risk in NAFLD, we offer essential perspectives that could enable readers to improve the personalized assessment of NAFLD-related HCC risk through a more methodical screening approach.

Nonalcoholic liver disease: Epidemiology, risk factors, natural history, and management strategies

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is now the most common chronic liver disease worldwide and a leading indication for liver transplantation in the United States. NAFLD encompasses a heterogeneous clinicopathologic spectrum, ranging from nonalcoholic fatty liver (NAFL) to nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, and progressive fibrosis, which can lead to end-stage liver disease including cirrhosis and hepatocellular cancer. Predictive models suggest that over 100 million adults in the United States will have NAFLD by 2030, representing over a third of the population. In this manuscript, we provide an overview of NAFLD risk factors, natural history (including hepatic and extra-hepatic outcomes), diagnosis, and current management strategies.

Analytical performance of the Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELF) Test on the Atellica IM Analyzer

BACKGROUND

The Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELFTM) Test comprises 3 direct serum markers of fibrosis-hyaluronic acid (HA), amino-terminal pro-peptide of type III procollagen (PIIINP), and tissue inhibitor of matrix metalloproteinase 1 (TIMP-1)-whose results are combined in an algorithm to generate the ELF score. Outside the U.S., the ELF Test and score are CE marked for assessment of liver fibrosis severity in patients with signs, symptoms, or risk factors of chronic liver disease to support diagnosis of fibrosis staging or prognosis for likelihood of progression to cirrhosis and liver-related clinical events. In the U.S., the FDA granted de novo marketing authorization to aid prognostic evaluation of disease progression (to cirrhosis and liver-related clinical events) in nonalcoholic steatohepatitis patients with advanced liver fibrosis. We describe the analytical performance of the ELF analytes and score on the Atellica® IM Analyzer.

METHODS

Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute protocols were followed for detection capability (limits of blank [LoB], detection [LoD], and quantitation [LoQ]), precision, interference, linearity, hook effect, and ELF reference interval.

RESULTS

All parameters met predetermined requirements: HA (LoB 1.00 ng/mL, LoD 2.00 ng/mL, LoQ 3.00 ng/mL); PIIINP (LoB 0.50 ng/mL, LoD 0.75 ng/mL, LoQ 1.00 ng/mL); TIMP-1 (LoB 3.0 ng/mL, LoD 4.0 ng/mL, LoQ 5.0 ng/mL). Across the 3 assays, repeatability was ≤5.4% CV; within-lab precision was ≤8.5% CV. ELF score repeatability was ≤0.6% CV, within-lab precision ≤1.3% CV, and reproducibility ≤1.1% CV. Good correlation was obtained between the Atellica IM ELF and ADVIA Centaur ELF Tests (y = 1.01x - 0.22, r = 0.997). Assays were linear across analytical measuring ranges.

CONCLUSIONS

Analytical performance validation results for the ELF Test and ELF score were excellent making the test acceptable for routine clinical use.

Liver fibrosis markers and all cause mortality in people with type 2 diabetes: A population based study (The Ayrshire Diabetes Outcomes Cohort (ADOC) Study)

AIMS

To describe the distribution of the biomarker scores Fibrosis-4 (FIB4), nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) fibrosis score (NFS), and aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI), and the associations between risk categories and all-cause mortality.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of 12 589 patients, with follow-up from January 2012 until November 2021. The cut-off points used to identify low risk were: FIB4 <1.3 if aged <65 years or <2.0 if aged ≥65 years; NFS < -1.455 if aged <65 years or <0.12 if aged ≥ 65 years; APRI <1 (independent of age). High-risk cut-off points were FIB4 >2.67, NFS >0.676 and APRI ≥1 (all independent of age). Multivariable Cox regression analysis was performed to assess the association between liver fibrosis scores and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

The mean ± standard deviation age was 65.2 ± 12.1 years, 54.5% were men and the median (interquartile range) diabetes duration was 5.8 (2.8-9.3) years. The prevalence of high-risk categories was 6.1% for FIB4, 23.5% for NFS and 1.6% for APRI. During a median follow-up of 9.8 years, 3925 patients (31.1%) died, resulting in a crude mortality rate of 40.4 per 1000 person-years. The overall adjusted all-cause mortality hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) in the high- compared with low-fibrosis-risk groups were 3.69 (1.95-2.75) for FIB4, 2.32 (2.88-4.70) for NFS, and 3.92 (2.88-5.34) for APRI. Stratified adjusted all-cause mortality hazard ratios for individuals under 65 years and people over 65 years of age at cohort entry were 3.89 (95% CI 2.99-5.05) and 1.44 (95% CI 1.28-1.61) for FIB4, 2.50 (95% CI 1.89-3.18) and 1.35 (95% CI 1.24-1.48) for NFS and 3.74 (95% CI 2.73-5.14) and 1.64 (95% CI 1.24-2.17) for APRI.

CONCLUSIONS

All three fibrosis risk scores were positively associated with all-cause mortality in people with type 2 diabetes, with higher relative risks in younger than older people. Effective interventions are required to minimize excess mortality in people at high risk of liver fibrosis.

Quantification of extracellular matrix remodeling for the non-invasive identification of graft fibrosis after liver transplantation

Detecting patients with early post-transplant fibrosis after liver transplantation (LT) is very important. Non-invasive tests are needed to avoid liver biopsies. We aimed to detect fibrosis in liver transplant recipients (LTR) using extracellular matrix (ECM) remodeling biomarkers. ECM biomarkers for type III (PRO-C3), IV (PRO-C4), VI (PRO-C6) and XVIII (PRO-C18L) collagen formation and type IV collagen degradation (C4M) were measured by ELISA in prospectively collected, cryopreserved plasma samples (n = 100) of LTR with paired liver biopsies from a protocol biopsy program. Fibrosis ≥ F2 was present in 29% of patients (median 44 months post-LT). APRI and FIB-4 neither identified significant fibrosis nor were correlated with histopathological fibrosis scores, while ECM biomarkers (AUCs 0.67-0.74) did. The median levels of PRO-C3 (15.7 vs. 11.6 ng/ml; p = 0.002) and C4M (22.9 vs. 11.6 ng/ml; p = 0.006) levels were elevated in T-cell-mediated rejection compared to normal graft function. The median levels of PRO-C4 (178.9 vs. 151.8 ng/ml; p = 0.009) and C4M (18.9 vs. 16.8 ng/ml; p = 0.004) levels were increased if donor-specific antibodies were present. PRO-C6 had the highest sensitivity (100%), NPV (100%) and negative likelihood-ratio (0) for graft fibrosis. To conclude, ECM biomarkers are helpful in identifying patients at risk of relevant graft fibrosis.

Non-invasive diagnosis and monitoring of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a highly prevalent form of chronic liver disease that poses challenges in diagnosis and risk stratification. Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), the more progressive form of NAFLD, is particularly challenging to diagnose in the absence of histology. Liver biopsy is infrequently performed due to its invasive nature, potential for sampling error, and lack of inter-rater reliability. Non-invasive tests that can accurately identify patients with at-risk NASH (ie, individuals with biopsy-proven NASH with NAFLD activity score [NAS] ≥4 and fibrosis stage ≥2) are key tools to identify candidates for pharmacologic therapy in registrational trials for the treatment of NASH-related fibrosis. With emerging pharmacotherapy, non-invasive tests are required to track treatment response. Lastly, there is an unmet need for non-invasive tests to assess risk for clinical outcomes including progression to cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation, liver-related mortality, and overall mortality. In this Review we examine advances in non-invasive tests to diagnose and monitor NAFLD and NASH.

CAP and LSM as determined by VCTE are independent predictors of all-cause mortality in the US adult population

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Data retrospective cohort studies have shown that liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by transient elastography (TE, FibroScan) can predict mortality in patients with NAFLD, however, its ability to predict mortality at a population level is unknown. We investigated the ability of LSM and controlled-attenuation parameter (CAP) by TE to predict mortality in a prospective US cohort.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

A total of 4192 US adults aged ≥18 years enrolled in the National Health, and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) (2017-2018) with reliable information on CAP and LSM by TE were included in this analysis. All-specific and cause-specific mortality were ascertained by linkage to National Death Index records through December 31, 2019. Cox models were used to estimate HR and 95% CI. During a mean follow-up of 24.4 months, there were 68 deaths (1.6%). CAP (adjusted HR: 1.01, 95% CI: 1.0-1.05), and LSM (adjusted HR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.02-1.11) were independently associated with overall mortality. NAFLD by CAP ≥285 had a 2.2-fold (95% CI: 1.0-4.7) increased odds of mortality compared with non-NAFLD. Cumulative mortality rates were significantly higher in participants with LSM of 9.7-13.5 (advanced fibrosis) and LSM ≥13.6 (cirrhosis) as compared with LSM <9.7; p value for trend across groups <0.01. LSM ≥13.6 displayed the highest mortality risk (adjusted HR: 3.2, 95% CI: 1.3-7.8). Compared with LSM <10 [absence of advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD)], LSM 10-19.9 (likely ACLD), and ≥20 kPa (likely ACLD with clinically significant portal hypertension) conferred a 3.4-fold (95% CI: 1.0-13.8) and 5.2-fold (95% CI: 1.2-22.3) increase in hazards of mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study findings highlight the importance of liver health as a predictor of overall mortality at a population level.

Geographical similarity and differences in the burden and genetic predisposition of NAFLD

NAFLD has become a major public health problem for more than 2 decades with a growing prevalence in parallel with the epidemic of obesity and type 2 diabetes (T2D). The disease burden of NAFLD differs across geographical regions and ethnicities. Variations in prevalence of metabolic diseases, extent of urban-rural divide, dietary habits, lifestyles, and the prevalence of NAFLD risk and protective alleles can contribute to such differences. The rise in NAFLD has led to a remarkable increase in the number of cases of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, hepatic decompensation, and liver-related mortality related to NAFLD. Moreover, NAFLD is associated with multiple extrahepatic manifestations. Most of them are risk factors for the progression of liver fibrosis and thus worsen the prognosis of NAFLD. All these comorbidities and complications affect the quality of life in subjects with NAFLD. Given the huge and growing size of the population with NAFLD, it is expected that patients, healthcare systems, and the economy will suffer from the ongoing burden related to NAFLD. In this review, we examine the disease burden of NAFLD across geographical areas and ethnicities, together with the distribution of some well-known genetic variants for NAFLD. We also describe some special populations including patients with T2D, lean patients, the pediatric population, and patients with concomitant liver diseases. We discuss extrahepatic outcomes, patient-reported outcomes, and economic burden related to NAFLD.

Noninvasive tests predict liver-related events and mortality in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: sub-analysis of the CLIONE-Asia study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Noninvasive tests (NITs) have prognostic potential, but whether NITs are comparable with liver biopsy is unclear. This study aimed to examine the prognostic accuracy of NITs for liver-related mortality (LRM) and events (LREs) in patients with biopsy-proven nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).

METHODS

We investigated 1313 patients with NAFLD. Patients were assigned to low-risk, indeterminate-risk, and high-risk groups using conventional cutoff values of each FIB-4 and NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) and to stage 0-2 and stage 3-4 groups using the fibrosis stage. Survival and Cox regression analyses of the prognostic potential of NITs for LRM/LREs were conducted.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 4.5 years, regarding to FIB-4, the incidence rate (/1000 person-years) in the low risk was zero for LRM and 0.5 for LREs. In contrast, the rate in stage 0-2 was 1.3 for LRM and 2.8 for LRE. The adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for LREs in the high risk compared with the low risk were 32.85 (P < 0.01). The aHRs in stage 3-4 compared with stage 0-2 were 2.68 (P = 0.02) for LREs and 2.26 (P = 0.582) for LRM. In the same fibrosis stage, the incidence of LRM/LREs was more frequent with a higher risk stratification. The same trend was observed for NFS.

CONCLUSIONS

NITs accurately predict LRM and LREs as well as a liver biopsy in Japanese patients with NAFLD. Patients in the low risk may not require close follow-up for at least 5 years. The simple NITs could be an acceptable alternative method to performing a liver biopsy for the prognosis of NAFLD.

A practical use of noninvasive tests in clinical practice to identify high-risk patients with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis

BACKGROUND

Patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) with type 2 diabetes (T2D) or other components of metabolic syndrome are at high risk for disease progression. We proposed an algorithm to identify high-risk NAFLD patients in clinical practice using noninvasive tests (NITs).

METHODS

Evidence about risk stratification of NAFLD using validated NITs was reviewed by a panel of NASH Experts. Using the most recent evidence regarding the performance of NITs and their application in clinical practice were used to develop an easy-to-use algorithm for risk stratification of NAFLD patients seen in primary care, endocrinology and gastroenterology practices.

RESULTS

The proposed algorithm uses a three-step process to identify NAFLD patients who are potentially at high risk for adverse outcomes. The first step is to use clinical data to identify most patients who are at risk for having potentially progressive NAFLD (e.g. having T2D or multiple components of metabolic syndrome). The second step is to calculate the FIB-4 score as a NIT that can further risk stratifying individuals who are at low risk for progressive liver disease and can be managed by their primary healthcare providers to manage their cardiometabolic comorbidities. The third step is to use second-line NITs (transient elastography or enhanced liver fibrosis tests) to identify those who at high risk for progressive liver disease and should be considered for specially care by providers with NASH expertise.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of this simple clinical algorithm can identify and assist in managing patients with NAFLD at high risk for adverse outcomes.

Hepatocellular carcinoma in non-alcoholic steatohepatitis without cirrhosis

Cirrhosis is an emerging major cause of the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), up to 50% of patients with HCC had no clinical or histological evidence of cirrhosis. It is currently challenging to propose general recommendations for screening patients with NAFLD without cirrhosis, and each patient should be evaluated on a case-by-case basis based on the profile of specific risk factors identified. For HCC screening in NAFLD, a valid precision-based screening is needed. Currently, when evaluating this population of patients, the use of non-invasive methods can guide the selection of those who should undergo a screening and surveillance program. Hence, the objective of the present study is to review the epidemiology, the pathophysiology, the histopathological aspects, the current recommendations, and novel perspectives in the surveillance of non-cirrhotic NAFLD-related HCC.

Healthcare resource utilization and costs of care in the United States for patients with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis

AIMS

This retrospective, observational cohort study aimed to determine the burden of comorbidities, hospitalization, and healthcare costs among patients with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) in the United States stratified by fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) or body mass index (BMI).

METHODS

Adults with NASH were identified in the Veradigm Health Insights Electronic Health Record Database and linked Komodo claims data. The index date was the earliest coded NASH diagnosis between 1 January 2016 and 31 December 2020 with valid FIB-4 and ≥6 months of database activity and continuous enrollment pre- and post-index. We excluded patients with viral hepatitis, alcohol-use disorder, or alcoholic liver disease. Patients were stratified by FIB-4: FIB-4 ≤ 0.95, 0.95 < FIB-4 ≤ 2.67, 2.67 < FIB-4 ≤ 4.12, FIB-4 > 4.12) or BMI (BMI <25, 25 ≤ BMI ≤30, BMI > 30). Multivariate analysis was used to assess the relationship of FIB-4 with costs and hospitalizations.

RESULTS

Among 6,743 qualifying patients, index FIB-4 was ≤0.95 for 2,345 patents, 0.95-2.67 for 3,289 patients, 2.67-4.12 for 571 patients, and >4.12 for 538 patients (mean age 55.8 years; 62.9% female). Mean age, comorbidity burden, cardiovascular disease risk, and healthcare utilization increased with increasing FIB-4. Mean ± SD annual costs increased from $16,744±$53,810 to $34,667±$67,691 between the lowest and highest FIB-4 cohorts and were higher among patients with BMI <25 ($24,568±$81,250) than BMI >30 ($21,542±$61,490). A one-unit increase in FIB-4 at index was associated with a 3.4% (95%CI: 1.7%-5.2%) increase in mean total annual cost and an 11.6% (95%CI: 8.0%-15.3%) increased likelihood of hospitalization.

CONCLUSIONS

A higher FIB-4 was associated with increased healthcare costs and risk of hospitalization in adults with NASH; however, even patients with FIB-4 ≤ 0.95 presented a significant burden.

Non-Invasive Tests of Liver Fibrosis Help in Predicting the Development of Hepatocellular Carcinoma among Patients with NAFLD

Background: The potential role of non-invasive tests (NITs) for liver fibrosis for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction remains poorly known. Methods: Retrospective analysis of a NAFLD cohort from a single university hospital in Barcelona, Spain. Incidence rates and cumulative incidence for the overall cohort, as well as cirrhotic and non-cirrhotic patients were calculated. Logistic regression analyses were carried out to investigate risk factors of HCC. Results: From the entire cohort of 1040 patients, 996 patients (95.8%) were analyzed, in whom 35 cases of HCC were detected, of which 26 (72.4%) HCC incident cases were newly diagnosed during a median follow-up of 2.5 (1.9−3.6) years. Two-hundred and thirty-one (23.2%) were cirrhotic at baseline. With the exception of 2 (7.7%) cases of HCC, the rest were diagnosed in cirrhotic patients. Overall HCC cumulative incidence was 9.49 (95% CI 6.4−13.9) per 1000 person-years. The incidence rate for cirrhotic patients was 41.2 (95% CI 27.6−61.6) per 1000 person-years and 0.93 (95% CI 0.23−3.7) per 1000 person-years for patients without cirrhosis. Overall mortality was significantly higher amongst patients with HCC (4.4% vs. 30.8%, p < 0.001). In patients with available liver biopsy (n = 249, 25%), advanced fibrosis (F3−F4) was significantly associated with higher HCC incidence, but not steatosis, lobular inflammation, nor ballooning. In the overall cohort, FIB-4 ≥1.3 (HR 8.46, 95% CI 1.06−67.4, p = 0.044) and older age (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.01−1.11, p = 0.025) were associated with increasing risk of HCC over time, whereas in cirrhotic patients predictors of HCC included decreasing values of albumin (HR 0.34, 95% CI 0.13−0.87, p = 0.024), platelets (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.98−0.99, p = 0.001), and increasing values of liver stiffness (HR 1.03, 95% CI 1.00−1.06, p = 0.016). Conclusions: In a Spanish cohort of NAFLD patients, HCC was rare in non-cirrhotic patients. NITs might play a relevant role at predicting HCC.