Development and Validation of CAGIB Score for Evaluating the Prognosis of Cirrhosis with Acute Gastrointestinal Bleeding: A Retrospective Multicenter Study

Assessment, Resuscitation and Medical Management of Variceal and Nonvariceal Gastrointestinal Bleeding

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) continues to be an important cause for emergency room visits and carries significant morbidity and mortality. Early resuscitative measures form the basis of the management of patients presenting with UGIB and can improve the outcomes of such patients including lowering mortality. In this review, using an evidence-based approach, we discuss the initial assessment and resuscitation of patients presenting with UGIB including identifying clues from history and physical examination to confirm UGIB, preendoscopic risk assessment tools, the role of early fluid resuscitation, utilization of blood products, use of pharmacologic interventions, and the optimal timing of endoscopy.

Interpretations of the Role of Plasma Albumin in Prognostic Indices: A Literature Review

This review assesses how publications interpret factors that influence the serum or plasma albumin (PA) level in prognostic indices, focusing on inflammation and nutrition. On PubMed, a search for "albumin AND prognosis" yielded 23,919 results. From these records, prognostic indices were retrieved, and their names were used as search strings on PubMed. Indices found in 10 or more original research articles were included. The same search strings, restricted to "Review" or "Systematic review", retrieved yielded on the indices. The data comprised the 10 latest original research articles and up to 10 of the latest reviews. Thirty indices had 294 original research articles (6 covering two indices) and 131 reviews, most of which were from recent years. A total of 106 articles related the PA level to inflammation, and 136 related the PA level to nutrition. For the reviews, the equivalent numbers were 54 and 65. In conclusion, more publications mention the PA level as a marker of nutrition rather than inflammation. This is in contrast to several general reviews on albumin and nutritional guidelines, which state that the PA level is a marker of inflammation but not nutrition. Hypoalbuminemia should prompt clinicians to focus on the inflammatory aspects in their patients.

Progress in research of risk prediction models for upper gastrointestinal bleeding

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding is a common gastrointes-tinal condition with a high incidence rate and great harm to the body. This paper reviews the rebleeding, endos-copic intervention, and death risk prediction models for upper gastrointestinal bleeding, including the study population, research methods, related risk factors, and model performance, in order to provide reference for clinicians to conduct risk assessment as soon as possible, formulate effective prevention and management plans, and improve patient survival outcomes.

Strengths and limitations of risk stratification tools for patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: a narrative review

INTRODUCTION

Despite advances in the management of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB), associated morbidity and mortality remain significant. Most patients, however, will experience favorable outcomes without a need for hospital-based interventions. Risk assessment scores may assist in such early risk-stratification. These scales may optimize identification of low-risk patients, resulting in better resource utilization, including a reduced need for early endoscopy and fewer hospital admissions. The aim of this article is to provide an updated detailed review of risk assessment scores in UGIB.

AREA COVERED

A literature review identified past and currently available pre-endoscopic risk assessment scores for UGIB, with a focus on low-risk prediction. Strengths and weaknesses of the different scales are discussed as well as their impact on clinical decision-making.

EXPERT OPINION

The current evidence supports using the Glasgow Blatchford Score as it is the most accurate tool available when attempting to identify low-risk patients who can be safely managed on an outpatient basis. Currently, no risk assessment tool appears accurate enough in confidently classifying patients as high risk. Future research should utilize more standardized methodologies, while favoring interventional trial designs to better characterize the clinical impact attributable to the use of such risk stratification schemes.

Associations of gallbladder and gallstone parameters with clinical outcomes in patients with cirrhosis

Background

Morphologic changes in the gallbladder and gallstones are common in cirrhotic patients, but their associations with outcomes of cirrhotic patients are unclear.

Methods

We retrospectively enrolled 206 cirrhotic patients and measured their gallbladder length and width, gallbladder wall thickness, presence of gallstones, and gallstones’ length and width in axial contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) images. X-tile software was utilized to calculate the optimal cutoff values of these parameters for evaluating survival and hepatic decompensation events in the cirrhosis group. Their associations with survival were explored by Cox regression analyses and Kaplan–Meier curve analyses. Their associations with hepatic decompensation events were evaluated by competing risk analyses and Nelson-Aalen cumulative risk curve analyses where death was a competing event.

Results

Cirrhotic patients with gallbladder length < 72 mm had a significantly higher cumulative survival rate than those with a length of ≥ 72 mm (P = 0.049 by log-rank test), but gallbladder width, gallbladder wall thickness, presence of gallstones, and gallstones’ length and width were not significantly associated with survival (P = 0.10, P = 0.14, P = 0.97, P = 0.73, and P = 0.73 by log-rank tests, respectively). Cirrhotic patients with gallbladder wall thickness < 3.4 mm had a significantly lower cumulative rate of hepatic decompensation events than those with a wall thickness of ≥ 3.4 mm (P = 0.02 by Gray’s test), but gallbladder length and width, presence of gallstones, and gallstones’ length and width were not significantly associated with hepatic decompensation events (P = 0.15, P = 0.15, P = 0.54, P = 0.76, and P = 0.54 by Gray’s tests, respectively).

Conclusion

Changes in gallbladder length and gallbladder wall thickness, rather than gallstone parameters, may be in parallel with the long-term outcomes of cirrhotic patients.

Development and validation of a practical prognostic nomogram for evaluating inpatient mortality of cirrhotic patients with acute variceal hemorrhage

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Cirrhotic patients with acute variceal hemorrhage (AVH) have high short-term mortality. Established prognostic scores are seldom applicable clinically, partially because they need external validation or contain subjective variables. We aimed to develop and validate a practical prognostic nomogram based on objective predictors to predict prognosis for cirrhotic patients with AVH.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We enrolled 308 AVH patients with cirrhosis from our center as the derivation cohort to develop a new nomogram using logistic regression and validated it in cohorts of patients from Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) III (n = 247) and IV (n = 302).

RESULTS

International normalized ratio (INR), albumin (ALB) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were identified as predictors for inpatient mortality and a nomogram was constructed based on them. The nomogram discriminated well in both derivation and MIMIC-III/-IV validation cohorts with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) of 0.846 and 0.859/0.833, respectively and showed a better agreement between expected and observed outcomes (Hosmer-Lemeshow tests, all comparisons, P > 0.05) than other scores in all cohorts. Our nomogram had the lowest Brier scores (0.082/0.114/0.119 in training/MIMIC-III/MIMIC-IV) and highest R² (0.367/0.393/0.346 in training/MIMIC-III/MIMIC-IV) compared to the recalibrated model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD-hepatic encephalopathy (MELD-HE) and cirrhosis acute gastrointestinal bleeding (CAGIB) scores in all cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a practical prognostic nomogram using easily verified indicators available in initial patient evaluation, which may serve as a reliable tool to accurately predict inpatient mortality for cirrhotic patients with AVH.

CHAMPS score in predicting mortality of patients with acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of the Charlson Comorbidity Index ≥2, in-hospital onset, albumin <2.5 g/dL, altered mental status, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status ≥2, steroid use score in predicting mortality in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding and compare it with the Glasgow-Blatchford score; the albumin, international normalized ratio; alteration in mental status, systolic blood pressure, and age 65 score; the age, blood tests, and comorbidities score; and Complete Rockall score.

METHODS

The data of patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding who visited the emergency department during the study period were obtained from the hospital automation system by using the classification of disease codes and analyzed in this retrospective study. Adult patients with endoscopically confirmed nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding were included in the study. Patients with bleeding from the tumor, bleeding after endoscopic resection, or missing data were excluded. The prediction accuracy of the Charlson Comorbidity Index ≥ 2, in-hospital onset, albumin < 2.5 g/dL, altered mental status, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status ≥ 2, steroid use score was calculated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and compared with that of Glasgow-Blatchford score, the albumin, international normalized ratio; alteration in mental status, systolic blood pressure, and age 65 score, the age, blood tests, and comorbidities score, and Complete Rockall score.

RESULTS

A total of 805 patients were included in the study, and the in-hospital mortality rate was 6.6%. The performance of the Charlson Comorbidity Index ≥ 2, in-hospital onset, albumin < 2.5 g/dL, altered mental status, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status ≥ 2, steroid use score (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.812, 95%CI 0.783-0.839) was better than Glasgow-Blatchford score (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.683, 95%CI 0.650-0.713, p=0.008), and similar to the the age, blood tests, and comorbidities score (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.829, 95%CI 0.801-0.854, p=0.563), the albumin, international normalized ratio; alteration in mental status, systolic blood pressure, and age 65 score (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.794, 95%CI 0.764-0.821, p=0.672), and Complete Rockall score (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.761, 95%CI 0.730-0.790, p=0.106).

CONCLUSION

The performance of the Charlson Comorbidity Index ≥ 2, in-hospital onset, albumin < 2.5 g/dL, altered mental status, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status ≥ 2, steroid use score in predicting in-hospital mortality for our study population is better than Glasgow-Blatchford score and similar to the the age, blood tests, and comorbidities score, the albumin, international normalized ratio; alteration in mental status, systolic blood pressure, and age 65 score, and Complete Rockall score.

Acute kidney injury defined by cystatin C may be superior for predicting the outcomes of liver cirrhosis with acute gastrointestinal bleeding

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is conventionally evaluated by a dynamic change of serum creatinine (Scr). Cystatin C (CysC) seems to be a more accurate biomarker for assessing kidney function. This retrospective multicenter study aims to evaluate whether AKI re-defined by CysC can predict the in-hospital outcomes of patients with liver cirrhosis and acute gastrointestinal bleeding.

METHODS

Overall, 677 cirrhotic patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding, in whom both Scr and CysC levels were detected at admissions, were screened. eGFR_Scr, eGFR_CysC, and eGFR_Scr-CysC were calculated. MELD-Na score and AKI were re-evaluated by CysC instead of Scr. Odds ratios (ORs) were calculated in the logistic regression analyses. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Univariate logistic regression analyses demonstrated that baseline Scr and CysC levels, eGFR_Scr, eGFR_CysC, eGFR_Scr-CysC, original MELD-Na score defined by Scr, MELD-Na score re-defined by CysC, and AKI re-defined by CysC, but not conventional AKI defined by Scr, were significantly associated with in-hospital death. ROC analyses showed that baseline CysC level, eGFR_Scr, eGFR_CysC, eGFR_Scr-CysC, original MELD-Na score defined by Scr, and MELD-Na score re-defined by CysC, but not baseline Scr level, could significantly predict the risk of in-hospital death.

CONCLUSIONS

AKI re-defined by CysC may be superior for predicting the in-hospital mortality of cirrhotic patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding.

Timing of endoscopic intervention in patients with cirrhosis with acute variceal haemorrhage (TEACH trial): protocol for a randomised clinical trial (RCT)

INTRODUCTION

Acute variceal haemorrhage (AVH) in patients with cirrhosis remains a topic of great interest. Although several guidelines recommend endoscopy within 24 hours after AVH, there is no consensus on the most appropriate time to perform this intervention. The purpose of this study is to identify whether urgent endoscopy (within 6 hours after gastroenterological consultation) is superior to non-urgent endoscopy (between 6 hours and 24 hours after gastroenterological consultation) in reducing the rebleeding rate of these patients.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is a single-centred, prospective, randomised clinical trial. Between March 2021 and December 2023, an estimated 400 patients will be randomised in a 1:1 ratio to receive endoscopic intervention either within 6 hours or between 6 and 24 hours after gastroenterological consultation. Randomisation will be conducted by permuted block randomisation, with stratification by age, systolic blood pressure and pulse rate. The primary efficacy endpoint is rebleeding within 42 days after control of AVH. The secondary efficacy endpoints mainly include all-cause mortality within 42 days after randomisation, persistent bleeding, length of hospitalisation, etc. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study protocol was approved by the Ethical Committees of Jinling Hospital (authorised ethics no. DZQH-KYLL-21-01). This trial will provide valuable insights into the timing of endoscopic intervention for AVH in patients with cirrhosis. Furthermore, the trial results and conclusions could provide high-quality evidence to guide clinical research and treatment.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04786743.

Novel nomogram model for predicting 6-week mortality in liver cirrhosis patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a nomogram for predicting 6-week mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis and acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) and to compare it with other commonly used scoring systems.

METHODS

This retrospective study included cirrhotic patients with acute UGIB hospitalized between January 2013 and December 2020. Random sampling was used to divide patients into the training (n = 676) and validation cohorts (n = 291) at a 7:3 ratio. Multivariate logistic stepwise regression was used to establish a model for predicting 6-week mortality. Multiple indicators were used to validate the nomogram, including the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

In the training cohort, total bilirubin (TBIL) (odds ratio [OR] 1.75, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.22-2.50), hemoglobin (Hb) (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.95-0.99), C-reactive protein (OR 2.79, 95% CI 1.30-6.07), prothrombin time (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.05-1.30), and hepatic encephalopathy (stage I-II: OR 4.15, 95% CI 1.73-9.61; stage III-IV: OR 19.6, 95% CI 5.33-76.8) were identified as independent factors of 6-week mortality. The AUROC of the UGIB-LC score was 0.873 (95% CI 0.820-0.927), which was higher than that of the Child-Pugh score (0.781), model for end-stage liver disease score (0.766), and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (0.716).

CONCLUSION

The UGIB-LC score is useful for predicting 6-week mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis and acute UGIB, which is superior to the other three scoring systems.

Endotoxin Translocation and Gut Barrier Dysfunction Are Related to Variceal Bleeding in Patients With Liver Cirrhosis

Background

Bacterial infections are associated with the risk of variceal bleeding through complex pathophysiologic pathways.

Objectives

The primary objective of the present case-control study was to investigate the role of bacterial translocation and intestinal barrier dysfunction in the pathogenesis of variceal bleeding. A secondary objective was to determine independent predictors of key outcomes in variceal bleeding, including bleeding-related mortality.

Methods

Eighty-four (n = 84) consecutive patients participated in the study, 41 patients with acute variceal bleeding and 43 patients with stable cirrhosis, and were followed up for 6 weeks. Peripheral blood samples were collected at patient admission and before any therapeutic intervention.

Results

Child-Pugh (CP) score (OR: 1.868; p = 0.044), IgM anti-endotoxin antibody levels (OR: 0.954; p = 0.016) and TGF-β levels (OR: 0.377; p = 0.026) were found to be significant predictors of variceal bleeding. Regression analysis revealed that albumin (OR: 0.0311; p = 0.023), CRP (OR: 3.234; p = 0.034) and FABP2 levels (OR:1.000, p = 0.040), CP score (OR: 2.504; p = 0.016), CP creatinine score (OR: 2.366; p = 0.008), end-stage liver disease model (MELD), Na (OR: 1.283; p = 0.033), portal vein thrombosis (OR: 0.075; p = 0.008), hepatocellular carcinoma (OR: 0.060; p = 0.003) and encephalopathy (OR: 0.179; p = 0.045) were significantly associated with 6-week mortality.

Conclusions

Bacterial translocation and gut barrier impairment are directly related to the risk of variceal bleeding. Microbiota-modulating interventions and anti-endotoxin agents may be promising strategies to prevent variceal bleeding.

A New Scoring System for Predicting In-hospital Death in Patients Having Liver Cirrhosis With Esophageal Varices

Introduction: Liver cirrhosis is caused by the development of various acute and chronic liver diseases. Esophageal varices is a common and serious complication of liver cirrhosis during decompensation. Despite the development of various treatments, the prognosis for liver cirrhosis with esophageal varices (LCEV) remains poor. We aimed to establish and validate a nomogram for predicting in-hospital death in LCEV patients.

Methods: Data on LCEV patients were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III and IV (MIMIC-III and MIMIC-IV) database. The patients from MIMIC-III were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts. Training cohort was used for establishing the model, validation and MIMIC-IV cohorts were used for validation. The independent prognostic factors for LCEV patients were determined using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method and forward stepwise logistic regression. We then constructed a nomogram to predict the in-hospital death of LCEV patients. Multiple indicators were used to validate the nomogram, including the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curve, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), net reclassification index (NRI), and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results: Nine independent prognostic factors were identified by using LASSO and stepwise regressions: age, Elixhauser score, anion gap, sodium, albumin, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, vasopressor use, and bleeding. The nomogram was then constructed and validated. The AUC value of the nomogram was 0.867 (95% CI = 0.832–0.904) in the training cohort, 0.846 (95% CI = 0.790–0.896) in the validation cohort and 0.840 (95% CI = 0.807–0.872) in the MIMIC-IV cohort. High AUC values indicated the good discriminative ability of the nomogram, while the calibration curves and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test results demonstrated that the nomogram was well-calibrated. Improvements in NRI and IDI values suggested that our nomogram was superior to MELD-Na, CAGIB, and OASIS scoring system. DCA curves indicated that the nomogram had good value in clinical applications.

Conclusion: We have established the first prognostic nomogram for predicting the in-hospital death of LCEV patients. The nomogram is easy to use, performs well, and can be used to guide clinical practice, but further external prospective validation is still required.

Mortality rates and risk factors in 1412 Japanese patients with decompensated hepatitis C virus-related cirrhosis: a retrospective long-term cohort study

Background

Hepatitis C virus is the leading cause of liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma in Japan. We aimed to examine the long-term (> 20 years) mortality and hepatocellular carcinoma rates and associated risk factors in 1412 Japanese patients with decompensated hepatitis C virus-related cirrhosis (Child–Pugh B or C).

Methods

Cumulative survival and hepatocellular carcinoma rates were determined using Kaplan–Meier analysis. Independent risk factors were identified by multivariate analysis. A two-tailed P-value of < 0.05 was considered significant.

Results

The patients were followed up for a median of 2 years (range 0.5–24.2 years). In total, 62.3%, 41.7%, 4.7%, and 68.3% of the patients had a history of hepatocellular carcinoma, ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, and esophageal varices, respectively. The 1-, 5-, 10-, and 20-year cumulative overall survival rates in the total cohort was 74.9%, 29.0%, 9.1%, and 1.4%, respectively. The 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year cumulative survival rates for patients without hepatocellular carcinoma were 93.1%, 54.4%, 18.2%, and 4.0%, respectively, and the corresponding cumulative post-decompensation hepatocellular carcinoma rates were 14.0%, 31.6%, 46.1%, and 66.2%, respectively. The independent risk factors for mortality were older age, Child–Pugh C cirrhosis, the presence of hepatocellular carcinoma, low estimated glomerular filtration rate, low serum sodium level, low platelet count, and high γ-glutamyl transferase and α-fetoprotein levels for all patients and older age, Child–Pugh C cirrhosis, and low estimated glomerular filtration rate for patients without hepatocellular carcinoma. Overall, 1035 patients (73.3%) died; the causes of death were liver failure with/without hepatocellular carcinoma, pneumonia, sepsis, cardiovascular disease, and non-hepatocellular carcinoma malignancies. The corresponding morality rates per person-year were 133.4, 59.9, 10.9, 10.6, 9.0, and 5.2, respectively.

Conclusions

Among Japanese patients with decompensated hepatitis C virus-related cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma is associated with poor prognosis. Our results highlight the importance of managing liver-related events, including hepatocellular carcinoma, in these patients.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12876-021-01770-0.

Effect of Body Mass Index on the Prognosis of Liver Cirrhosis

Objective: At present, the association of body mass index (BMI) with the prognosis of liver cirrhosis is controversial. Our retrospective study aimed to evaluate the impact of BMI on the outcome of liver cirrhosis. Methods: In the first part, long-term death was evaluated in 436 patients with cirrhosis and without malignancy from our prospectively established single-center database. In the second part, in-hospital death was evaluated in 379 patients with cirrhosis and with acute gastrointestinal bleeding (AGIB) from our retrospective multicenter study. BMI was calculated and categorized as underweight (BMI <18.5 kg/m²), normal weight (18.5 ≤ BMI < 23.0 kg/m²), and overweight/obese (BMI ≥ 23.0 kg/m²). Results: In the first part, Kaplan-Meier curve analyses demonstrated a significantly higher cumulative survival rate in the overweight/obese group than the normal weight group (p = 0.047). Cox regression analyses demonstrated that overweight/obesity was significantly associated with decreased long-term mortality compared with the normal weight group [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.635; 95% CI: 0.405-0.998; p = 0.049] but not an independent predictor after adjusting for age, gender, and Child-Pugh score (HR = 0.758; 95%CI: 0.479-1.199; p = 0.236). In the second part, Kaplan-Meier curve analyses demonstrated no significant difference in the cumulative survival rate between the overweight/obese and the normal weight groups (p = 0.094). Cox regression analyses also demonstrated that overweight/obesity was not significantly associated with in-hospital mortality compared with normal weight group (HR = 0.349; 95%CI: 0.096-1.269; p = 0.110). In both of the two parts, the Kaplan-Meier curve analyses demonstrated no significant difference in the cumulative survival rate between underweight and normal weight groups. Conclusion: Overweight/obesity is modestly associated with long-term survival in patients with cirrhosis but not an independent prognostic predictor. There is little effect of overweight/obesity on the short-term survival of patients with cirrhosis and with AGIB.

The Prognosis Analysis of Liver Cirrhosis with Acute Variceal Bleeding and Validation of Current Prognostic Models: A Large Scale Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

Acute variceal bleeding is a major cause of death in liver cirrhosis. This large scale retrospective cohort study aims to analyze the prognosis of patients with cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding and to validate the current prognostic models.

Methods

Patients with cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding were enrolled from Jan 2019 to March 2020. The independent prognostic factors for in-hospital death were identified by logistic regression analyses. Area under curves (AUCs) was compared among Child-Pugh, cirrhosis acute gastrointestinal bleeding (CAGIB) score, and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) scores.

Results

Overall, 379 patients with liver cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding were consecutively evaluated. The majority of the patients were males (59.1%) and the mean age of all patients were 53.7 ± 1.3 years (range 14-89). Hepatitis B virus (HBV) was the most common underlying cause of liver cirrhosis (54.1%). 72 (19%) patients had hepatocellular carcinoma. Multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that age, HCC, WBC, total serum bilirubin, serum creatinine, and ALT were independently associated with in-hospital death. And the odds ratios (ORs) for in-hospital death were 1.066 (95% CI 1.017-1.118, P = 0.008), 7.19 (95% CI 2.077-24.893, P = 0.001), 1.123 (95% CI 1.051-1.201, P = 0.001), 1.014 (95% CI 1.005-1.023, P = 0.003), 1.012 (95% CI 1.004-1.021, P = 0.006), and 1.005 (95% CI 1.000-1.009, P = 0.036), respectively. In the whole cohort with HCC patients, the AUCs of Child-Pugh, CAGIB, MELD and NLR scores were 0.842 (95% CI 0.801-0.878), 0.840 (95% CI 0.799-0.876), 0.798 (95% CI 0.754-0.838), and 0.688 (95% CI 0.639-0.735), respectively. The differences were statistically significant between Child-Pugh and NLR scores (P = 0.0118), and between CAGIB and NLR scores (P = 0.0354).

Conclusion

Child-Pugh and CAGIB scores showed better predictive performance for prognosis of patients with cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding than NLR scores.

Validation of a new prognostic model to predict short and medium-term survival in patients with liver cirrhosis

Background

MELD score and MELD score derivates are used to objectify and grade the risk of liver-related death in patients with liver cirrhosis. We recently proposed a new predictive model that combines serum creatinine levels and maximum liver function capacity (LiMAx®), namely the CreLiMAx risk score. In this validation study we have aimed to reproduce its diagnostic accuracy in patients with end-stage liver disease.

Methods

Liver function of 113 patients with liver cirrhosis was prospectively investigated. Primary end-point of the study was liver-related death within 12 months of follow-up.

Results

Alcoholic liver disease was the main cause of liver disease (n = 51; 45%). Within 12 months of follow-up 11 patients (9.7%) underwent liver transplantation and 17 (15.1%) died (13 deaths were related to liver disease, two not). Measures of diagnostic accuracy were comparable for MELD, MELD-Na and the CreLiMAx risk score as to power in predicting short and medium-term mortality risk in the overall cohort: AUROCS for liver related risk of death were for MELD [6 months 0.89 (95% CI 0.80–0.98) p < 0.001; 12 months 0.89 (95% CI 0.81–0.96) p < 0.001]; MELD-Na [6 months 0.93 (95% CI 0.85–1.00) p < 0.001 and 12 months 0.89 (95% CI 0.80–0.98) p < 0.001]; CPS 6 months 0.91 (95% CI 0.85–0.97) p < 0.01 and 12 months 0.88 (95% CI 0.80–0.96) p < 0.001] and CreLiMAx score [6 months 0.80 (95% CI 0.67–0.96) p < 0.01 and 12 months 0.79 (95% CI 0.64–0.94) p = 0.001]. In a subgroup analysis of patients with Child-Pugh Class B cirrhosis, the CreLiMAx risk score remained the only parameter significantly differing in non-survivors and survivors. Furthermore, in these patients the proposed score had a good predictive performance.

Conclusion

The CreLiMAx risk score appears to be a competitive and valid tool for estimating not only short- but also medium-term survival of patients with end-stage liver disease. Particularly in patients with Child-Pugh Class B cirrhosis the new score showed a good ability to identify patients not at risk of death.

Effects of diabetes on the rebleeding rate following endoscopic treatment in patients with liver cirrhosis

In the present study, the effects of diabetes on rebleeding following endoscopic treatment were assessed in patients with liver cirrhosis. A retrospective analysis of patients who underwent endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL) or endoscopic injection sclerotherapy (EIS) at the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University (Hefei, China) between June 2015 and March 2018 was performed. The patients were divided into the EVL and the EIS groups and each group was subdivided into diabetic and non-diabetic groups. The post-operative rebleeding rate was compared between the EVL and the EIS groups and between the diabetic and non-diabetic patients. The differences in the post-operative rebleeding rate of diabetic patients with hepatogenic and non-hepatogenic diabetes and in patients with different liver function grades were also determined. In the total patient cohort, the rebleeding rate in the EVL subgroup (11.3, 16.5 and 23.5%) was not significantly different compared with that in the EIS subgroup (9.8, 17.4 and 29.3%) at 1, 3 and 6 months following surgery, respectively (P=0.724, 0.868 and 0.339). In the total diabetic group, the rebleeding rate in the EVL subgroup (25.0, 36.1 and 44.4%) was not significantly different compared with that in the EIS subgroup (20.6, 32.4 and 47.1%) at 1, 3 and 6 months following surgery (P=0.660, 0.741 and 0.826, respectively). In the EVL group, the rebleeding rate in the diabetic subgroup (25.0, 36.1 and 44.4%) was higher than that in the non-diabetic subgroup (5.1, 7.6 and 13.9%) at 1, 3, and 6 months following surgery and the differences were significant (P=0.005, <0.001 and <0.001, respectively). In the EIS group, the rebleeding rate in the diabetic subgroup (20.6, 32.4 and 47.1%) was significantly higher than that in the non-diabetic subgroup (3.4, 8.6 and 19.0%) at 1, 3 and 6 months following surgery (P=0.021, 0.004 and 0.004, respectively). Adjustment for age and liver function grade in the EVL and EIS groups was performed using binary logistic regression and the parameter diabetes was indicated to be a risk factor for post-operative rebleeding (P<0.05). No significant difference was noted in the rate of rebleeding between patients with hepatogenic diabetes and non-hepatogenic diabetes at 1, 3 and 6 months following surgery (P=0.634, 0.726 and 0.446, respectively). In the total diabetic group, the rebleeding rate in the Child-Pugh grade A subgroup (14.3, 17.9 and 25.0%) was lower than that in the Child-Pugh grade B/C subgroup (28.6, 45.2 and 59.5%) at 1, 3 and 6 months following surgery, respectively. No significant difference was noted between the two groups at 1 month following surgery (P=0.163). However, the differences were significant at 3 and 6 months following surgery (P=0.018 and 0.005, respectively). The results suggested that diabetes is a risk factor for post-operative rebleeding in patients with cirrhosis. Diabetic patients with poor liver function were more likely to bleed following surgery and the post-operative bleeding rate was not significantly different between patients with hepatogenic and non-hepatogenic diabetes. The study was registered in the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (no. ChiCTR1800017772).