Coupling a 3D patch model and a rockfall module to assess rockfall protection in mountain forests

Comparisons of Dynamic Landslide Models on GIS Platforms

Numerical simulation is one of the methods to assess landslide movement processes, which is beneficial for engineering design and urban planning. With the development of computer technology, GIS has gradually become the mainstream platform for landslide simulation due to data availability and algorithm integrability. However, the dynamic processes of landslides are complicated, which makes integration difficult on GIS platforms. Some assumptions are applied to simplify these dynamic processes and solve this problem. Generally, there are two main types of numerical models on GIS platforms: models based on the Eulerian description and models based on the Lagrangian description. Case studies show that Eulerian models are suitable for flow-like movement, and Lagrangian models are suitable for discrete rigid bodies movement. Different models face different problems: the Eulerian-based models show numerical diffusion and oscillation, and the Lagrangian-based model needs to consider complicated shear and collision processes. In addition, the 3-D model can describe more details in the z-direction, while the depth-averaged model can obtain a reasonable range of motion, depth, and speed quickly. From the view of numerical simulation, inappropriate models, assumptions, and numerical schemes will produce errors. The landslide type refers to several forms of mass wasting associated with a wide range of ground movements, which guides establishing dynamic models and numerical schemes on GIS platforms and helps us obtain results accurately.

Economic valuation of ecosystem-based rockfall risk reduction considering disturbances and comparison to structural measures

Forests provide a series of ecosystem services, including the protection from natural hazards. Thanks to these forests, structural protection measures can be avoided in many places. A realistic long-term valuation of this ecosystem-based risk reduction provided by the forest is essential. The aim of this study is to assess the Net Present Value (NPV) of a protection forest using a risk-based approach and compare it to the NPV of rockfall nets. Costs to be included in the NPV calculation are forest management interventions, net construction, and benefits are the risk reduction and wood sales. The risk reduction is monetised as avoided costs, i.e. the difference between the yearly rockfall risk with and without measure. Uncertainties in the protection effect due to possible forest fires were simulated over a period of 100years using a Monte-Carlo approach. Both the protection forest and the nets effectively reduce rockfall risk at the study site. The NPV of the nets is highly negative (-124,100 CHF/ha), indicating that they are economically not worthwhile at the study site. The NPV of the protection forest is highly positive (162,400 CHF/ha). The variation of the NPV due to fires is very low and the influence of this disturbance on the long-term efficiency of the protection forest is small. Building temporary nets in case of a large fire can restore the protective effect. Their NPV is, however, lower compared to the situation without net. By calculating the NPV of a forest considering its risk reducing effect, we provide a methodology for a realistic valuation of its protective effect. It is based on a case study, which, however, can be applied in a broader context. The presented approach can serve as basis to find optimal combinations of investment in natural hazard prevention, be this ecosystem-based or structural measures.

Harnessing ecosystem models and multi-criteria decision analysis for the support of forest management

The decision-making environment in forest management (FM) has changed drastically during the last decades. Forest management planning is facing increasing complexity due to a widening portfolio of forest goods and services, a societal demand for a rational, transparent decision process and rising uncertainties concerning future environmental conditions (e.g., climate change). Methodological responses to these challenges include an intensified use of ecosystem models to provide an enriched, quantitative information base for FM planning. Furthermore, multi-criteria methods are increasingly used to amalgamate information, preferences, expert judgments and value expressions, in support of the participatory and communicative dimensions of modern forestry. Although the potential of combining these two approaches has been demonstrated in a number of studies, methodological aspects in interfacing forest ecosystem models (FEM) and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are scarcely addressed explicitly. In this contribution we review the state of the art in FEM and MCDA in the context of FM planning and highlight some of the crucial issues when combining ecosystem and preference modeling. We discuss issues and requirements in selecting approaches suitable for supporting FM planning problems from the growing body of FEM and MCDA concepts. We furthermore identify two major challenges in a harmonized application of FEM-MCDA: (i) the design and implementation of an indicator-based analysis framework capturing ecological and social aspects and their interactions relevant for the decision process, and (ii) holistic information management that supports consistent use of different information sources, provides meta-information as well as information on uncertainties throughout the planning process.