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Bellizzi S, Letchford N, Adib K, Probert WJ, Hancock P, Alsawalha L, Santoro A, Profili MC, Aguas R, Popescu C, Al Ariqi L, White L, Hayajneh W, Obeidat N, Nabeth P. Participatory Mathematical Modeling Approach for Policymaking during the First Year of the COVID-19 Crisis, Jordan. Emerg Infect Dis 2023; 29:1738-1746. [PMID: 37610124 PMCID: PMC10461658 DOI: 10.3201/eid2909.221493] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 08/24/2023] Open
Abstract
We engaged in a participatory modeling approach with health sector stakeholders in Jordan to support government decision-making regarding implementing public health measures to mitigate COVID-19 disease burden. We considered the effect of 4 physical distancing strategies on reducing COVID-19 transmission and mortality in Jordan during March 2020-January 2021: no physical distancing; intermittent physical distancing where all but essential services are closed once a week; intermittent physical distancing where all but essential services are closed twice a week; and a permanent physical distancing intervention. Modeling showed that the fourth strategy would be most effective in reducing cases and deaths; however, this approach was only marginally beneficial to reducing COVID-19 disease compared with an intermittently enforced physical distancing intervention. Scenario-based model influenced policy-making and the evolution of the pandemic in Jordan confirmed the forecasting provided by the modeling exercise and helped confirm the effectiveness of the policy adopted by the government of Jordan.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - William J.M. Probert
- World Health Organization Jordan Country Office, Amman, Jordan (S. Bellizzi, L. Alsawalha, A. Santoro, M.C. Profili, C. Popescu)
- World Health Organization Regional Office for Eastern Mediterranean, Cairo, Egypt (N. Letchford, K. Adib, W.J.M. Probert, Penelope Hancock, L. Al Ariqi, P. Nabeth)
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Aguas, L. White)
- SSM Health Cardinal Glennon Children's Hospital, St. Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri, USA (W. Hayajneh)
- Jordan University Hospital, Amman (N. Obeidat)
| | - Penelope Hancock
- World Health Organization Jordan Country Office, Amman, Jordan (S. Bellizzi, L. Alsawalha, A. Santoro, M.C. Profili, C. Popescu)
- World Health Organization Regional Office for Eastern Mediterranean, Cairo, Egypt (N. Letchford, K. Adib, W.J.M. Probert, Penelope Hancock, L. Al Ariqi, P. Nabeth)
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Aguas, L. White)
- SSM Health Cardinal Glennon Children's Hospital, St. Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri, USA (W. Hayajneh)
- Jordan University Hospital, Amman (N. Obeidat)
| | - Lora Alsawalha
- World Health Organization Jordan Country Office, Amman, Jordan (S. Bellizzi, L. Alsawalha, A. Santoro, M.C. Profili, C. Popescu)
- World Health Organization Regional Office for Eastern Mediterranean, Cairo, Egypt (N. Letchford, K. Adib, W.J.M. Probert, Penelope Hancock, L. Al Ariqi, P. Nabeth)
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Aguas, L. White)
- SSM Health Cardinal Glennon Children's Hospital, St. Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri, USA (W. Hayajneh)
- Jordan University Hospital, Amman (N. Obeidat)
| | - Alessio Santoro
- World Health Organization Jordan Country Office, Amman, Jordan (S. Bellizzi, L. Alsawalha, A. Santoro, M.C. Profili, C. Popescu)
- World Health Organization Regional Office for Eastern Mediterranean, Cairo, Egypt (N. Letchford, K. Adib, W.J.M. Probert, Penelope Hancock, L. Al Ariqi, P. Nabeth)
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Aguas, L. White)
- SSM Health Cardinal Glennon Children's Hospital, St. Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri, USA (W. Hayajneh)
- Jordan University Hospital, Amman (N. Obeidat)
| | - Maria C. Profili
- World Health Organization Jordan Country Office, Amman, Jordan (S. Bellizzi, L. Alsawalha, A. Santoro, M.C. Profili, C. Popescu)
- World Health Organization Regional Office for Eastern Mediterranean, Cairo, Egypt (N. Letchford, K. Adib, W.J.M. Probert, Penelope Hancock, L. Al Ariqi, P. Nabeth)
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Aguas, L. White)
- SSM Health Cardinal Glennon Children's Hospital, St. Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri, USA (W. Hayajneh)
- Jordan University Hospital, Amman (N. Obeidat)
| | - Ricardo Aguas
- World Health Organization Jordan Country Office, Amman, Jordan (S. Bellizzi, L. Alsawalha, A. Santoro, M.C. Profili, C. Popescu)
- World Health Organization Regional Office for Eastern Mediterranean, Cairo, Egypt (N. Letchford, K. Adib, W.J.M. Probert, Penelope Hancock, L. Al Ariqi, P. Nabeth)
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Aguas, L. White)
- SSM Health Cardinal Glennon Children's Hospital, St. Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri, USA (W. Hayajneh)
- Jordan University Hospital, Amman (N. Obeidat)
| | - Christian Popescu
- World Health Organization Jordan Country Office, Amman, Jordan (S. Bellizzi, L. Alsawalha, A. Santoro, M.C. Profili, C. Popescu)
- World Health Organization Regional Office for Eastern Mediterranean, Cairo, Egypt (N. Letchford, K. Adib, W.J.M. Probert, Penelope Hancock, L. Al Ariqi, P. Nabeth)
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Aguas, L. White)
- SSM Health Cardinal Glennon Children's Hospital, St. Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri, USA (W. Hayajneh)
- Jordan University Hospital, Amman (N. Obeidat)
| | - Lubna Al Ariqi
- World Health Organization Jordan Country Office, Amman, Jordan (S. Bellizzi, L. Alsawalha, A. Santoro, M.C. Profili, C. Popescu)
- World Health Organization Regional Office for Eastern Mediterranean, Cairo, Egypt (N. Letchford, K. Adib, W.J.M. Probert, Penelope Hancock, L. Al Ariqi, P. Nabeth)
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Aguas, L. White)
- SSM Health Cardinal Glennon Children's Hospital, St. Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri, USA (W. Hayajneh)
- Jordan University Hospital, Amman (N. Obeidat)
| | - Lisa White
- World Health Organization Jordan Country Office, Amman, Jordan (S. Bellizzi, L. Alsawalha, A. Santoro, M.C. Profili, C. Popescu)
- World Health Organization Regional Office for Eastern Mediterranean, Cairo, Egypt (N. Letchford, K. Adib, W.J.M. Probert, Penelope Hancock, L. Al Ariqi, P. Nabeth)
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Aguas, L. White)
- SSM Health Cardinal Glennon Children's Hospital, St. Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri, USA (W. Hayajneh)
- Jordan University Hospital, Amman (N. Obeidat)
| | - Wail Hayajneh
- World Health Organization Jordan Country Office, Amman, Jordan (S. Bellizzi, L. Alsawalha, A. Santoro, M.C. Profili, C. Popescu)
- World Health Organization Regional Office for Eastern Mediterranean, Cairo, Egypt (N. Letchford, K. Adib, W.J.M. Probert, Penelope Hancock, L. Al Ariqi, P. Nabeth)
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Aguas, L. White)
- SSM Health Cardinal Glennon Children's Hospital, St. Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri, USA (W. Hayajneh)
- Jordan University Hospital, Amman (N. Obeidat)
| | - Nathir Obeidat
- World Health Organization Jordan Country Office, Amman, Jordan (S. Bellizzi, L. Alsawalha, A. Santoro, M.C. Profili, C. Popescu)
- World Health Organization Regional Office for Eastern Mediterranean, Cairo, Egypt (N. Letchford, K. Adib, W.J.M. Probert, Penelope Hancock, L. Al Ariqi, P. Nabeth)
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Aguas, L. White)
- SSM Health Cardinal Glennon Children's Hospital, St. Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri, USA (W. Hayajneh)
- Jordan University Hospital, Amman (N. Obeidat)
| | - Pierre Nabeth
- World Health Organization Jordan Country Office, Amman, Jordan (S. Bellizzi, L. Alsawalha, A. Santoro, M.C. Profili, C. Popescu)
- World Health Organization Regional Office for Eastern Mediterranean, Cairo, Egypt (N. Letchford, K. Adib, W.J.M. Probert, Penelope Hancock, L. Al Ariqi, P. Nabeth)
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Aguas, L. White)
- SSM Health Cardinal Glennon Children's Hospital, St. Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri, USA (W. Hayajneh)
- Jordan University Hospital, Amman (N. Obeidat)
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Ko Y, Mendoza VM, Mendoza R, Seo Y, Lee J, Jung E. Risk estimation of lifted mask mandates and emerging variants using mathematical model. Heliyon 2023; 9:e16841. [PMID: 37303548 PMCID: PMC10246937 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e16841] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/09/2023] [Revised: 05/29/2023] [Accepted: 05/30/2023] [Indexed: 06/13/2023] Open
Abstract
Background More than half of the population in Korea had a prior COVID-19 infection. In 2022, most nonpharmaceutical interventions, except mask-wearing indoors, had been lifted. And in 2023, the indoor mask mandates were eased. Methods We developed an age-structured compartmental model that distinguishes vaccination history, prior infection, and medical staff from the rest of the population. Contact patterns among hosts were separated based on age and location. We simulated scenarios with the lifting of the mask mandate all at once or sequentially according to the locations. Furthermore, we investigated the impact of a new variant assuming that it has higher transmissibility and risk of breakthrough infection. Results We found that the peak size of administered severe patients may not exceed 1100 when the mask mandate is lifted everywhere, and 800 if the mask mandate only remains in the hospital. If the mask mandate is lifted in a sequence (except hospital), then the peak size of administered severe patients may not exceed 650. Moreover, if the new variant has both higher transmissibility and immune reduction, the effective reproductive number of the new variant is approximately 3 times higher than that of the current variant, and additional interventions may be needed to keep the administered severe patients from exceeding 2,000, which is the critical level we set. Conclusion Our findings showed that the lifting of the mask mandate, except in hospitals, would be more manageable if implemented sequentially. Considering a new variant, we found that depending on the population immunity and transmissibility of the variant, wearing masks and other interventions may be necessary for controlling the disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Youngsuk Ko
- Department of Mathematics, Konkuk University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Victoria May Mendoza
- Department of Mathematics, Konkuk University, Seoul, South Korea
- Institute of Mathematics, University of the Philippines Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines
| | - Renier Mendoza
- Department of Mathematics, Konkuk University, Seoul, South Korea
- Institute of Mathematics, University of the Philippines Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines
| | - Yubin Seo
- Division of Infectious Disease, Department of Internal Medicine, Kangnam Sacred Heart Hospital, Hallym University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Jacob Lee
- Division of Infectious Disease, Department of Internal Medicine, Kangnam Sacred Heart Hospital, Hallym University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Eunok Jung
- Department of Mathematics, Konkuk University, Seoul, South Korea
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