Maintaining Antarctica's isolation from non-native species

Systematic conservation planning for Antarctic research stations

The small ice-free areas of Antarctica are essential locations for both biodiversity and scientific research but are subject to considerable and expanding human impacts, resulting primarily from station-based research and support activities, and local tourism. Awareness by operators of the need to conserve natural values in and around station and visitor site footprints exists, but the cumulative nature of impacts often results in reactive rather than proactive management. With human activity spread across many isolated pockets of ice-free ground, the pathway to the greatest reduction of human impacts within this natural reserve is through better management of these areas, which are impacted the most. Using a case study of Australia's Casey Station, we found significant natural values persist within the immediate proximity (<10 m) of long-term station infrastructure, but encroachment by physical disturbance results in ongoing pressures. Active planning to better conserve such values would provide a direct opportunity to enhance protection of Antarctica's environment. Here we introduce an approach to systematic conservation planning, tailored to Antarctic research stations, to help managers improve the conservation of values surrounding their activity locations. Use of this approach provides a potential mechanism to balance the need for scientific access to the continent with international obligations to protect its environment. It may also facilitate the development of subordinate conservation tools, including management plans and natural capital accounting. By proactively minimising and containing their station footprints, national programs can also independently demonstrate their commitment to protecting Antarctica's environment.

Forecasting the future of life in Antarctica

Antarctic ecosystems are under increasing anthropogenic pressure, but efforts to predict the responses of Antarctic biodiversity to environmental change are hindered by considerable data challenges. Here, we illustrate how novel data capture technologies provide exciting opportunities to sample Antarctic biodiversity at wider spatiotemporal scales. Data integration frameworks, such as point process and hierarchical models, can mitigate weaknesses in individual data sets, improving confidence in their predictions. Increasing process knowledge in models is imperative to achieving improved forecasts of Antarctic biodiversity, which can be attained for data-limited species using hybrid modelling frameworks. Leveraging these state-of-the-art tools will help to overcome many of the data scarcity challenges presented by the remoteness of Antarctica, enabling more robust forecasts both near- and long-term.

Islands in the ice: Potential impacts of habitat transformation on Antarctic biodiversity

Antarctic biodiversity faces an unknown future with a changing climate. Most terrestrial biota is restricted to limited patches of ice-free land in a sea of ice, where they are adapted to the continent's extreme cold and wind and exploit microhabitats of suitable conditions. As temperatures rise, ice-free areas are predicted to expand, more rapidly in some areas than others. There is high uncertainty as to how species' distributions, physiology, abundance, and survivorship will be affected as their habitats transform. Here we use current knowledge to propose hypotheses that ice-free area expansion (i) will increase habitat availability, though the quality of habitat will vary; (ii) will increase structural connectivity, although not necessarily increase opportunities for species establishment; (iii) combined with milder climates will increase likelihood of non-native species establishment, but may also lengthen activity windows for all species; and (iv) will benefit some species and not others, possibly resulting in increased homogeneity of biodiversity. We anticipate considerable spatial, temporal, and taxonomic variation in species responses, and a heightened need for interdisciplinary research to understand the factors associated with ecosystem resilience under future scenarios. Such research will help identify at-risk species or vulnerable localities and is crucial for informing environmental management and policymaking into the future.