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Zaheer MU, Salman MD, Steneroden KK, Magzamen SL, Weber SE, Case S, Rao S. Challenges to the Application of Spatially Explicit Stochastic Simulation Models for Foot-and-Mouth Disease Control in Endemic Settings: A Systematic Review. Comput Math Methods Med 2020; 2020:7841941. [PMID: 33294003 PMCID: PMC7700052 DOI: 10.1155/2020/7841941] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2020] [Revised: 10/20/2020] [Accepted: 10/30/2020] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Simulation modeling has become common for estimating the spread of highly contagious animal diseases. Several models have been developed to mimic the spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in specific regions or countries, conduct risk assessment, analyze outbreaks using historical data or hypothetical scenarios, assist in policy decisions during epidemics, formulate preparedness plans, and evaluate economic impacts. Majority of the available FMD simulation models were designed for and applied in disease-free countries, while there has been limited use of such models in FMD endemic countries. This paper's objective was to report the findings from a study conducted to review the existing published original research literature on spatially explicit stochastic simulation (SESS) models of FMD spread, focusing on assessing these models for their potential use in endemic settings. The goal was to identify the specific components of endemic FMD needed to adapt these SESS models for their potential application in FMD endemic settings. This systematic review followed the PRISMA guidelines, and three databases were searched, which resulted in 1176 citations. Eighty citations finally met the inclusion criteria and were included in the qualitative synthesis, identifying nine unique SESS models. These SESS models were assessed for their potential application in endemic settings. The assessed SESS models can be adapted for use in FMD endemic countries by modifying the underlying code to include multiple cocirculating serotypes, routine prophylactic vaccination (RPV), and livestock population dynamics to more realistically mimic the endemic characteristics of FMD. The application of SESS models in endemic settings will help evaluate strategies for FMD control, which will improve livestock health, provide economic gains for producers, help alleviate poverty and hunger, and will complement efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Muhammad Usman Zaheer
- Animal Population Health Institute, Department of Clinical Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins CO 80523, USA
- FMD Project Office, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, ASI Premises, NARC Gate # 2, Park Road, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan
| | - Mo D. Salman
- Animal Population Health Institute, Department of Clinical Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins CO 80523, USA
| | - Kay K. Steneroden
- Animal Population Health Institute, Department of Clinical Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins CO 80523, USA
| | - Sheryl L. Magzamen
- Department of Environmental and Radiological Health Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins CO 80523, USA
| | - Stephen E. Weber
- Animal Population Health Institute, Department of Clinical Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins CO 80523, USA
| | - Shaun Case
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Walter Scott, Jr. College of Engineering, Colorado State University, Fort Collins CO 80521, USA
| | - Sangeeta Rao
- Animal Population Health Institute, Department of Clinical Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins CO 80523, USA
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Muniesa A, Peris A, Castillo JA, de Blas I. Variations in seroprevalences of canine leishmaniasis: Could it be a consequence of the population structure? Vet Parasitol 2016; 226:5-9. [PMID: 27514874 DOI: 10.1016/j.vetpar.2016.06.018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/13/2016] [Revised: 06/04/2016] [Accepted: 06/11/2016] [Indexed: 10/21/2022]
Abstract
Canine leishmaniasis is a parasitic disease caused by Leishmania infantum and is transmitted by Phlebotominae vectors. Despite numerous publications on the subject, some essential aspects of the epidemiology are not yet sufficiently clear. We proposed a stochastic model with the aim of identifying some important gaps in the current knowledge of leishmaniasis, such as the frequency of vector infection or a dog's life expectancy depending on their purpose and their health status. We only found that the purpose was a significant factor. Furthermore, we detected relationships among age, gender and habitat with the dogs' purposes that can affect the calculation of the overall seroprevalence of the analysed sample. The development of this model will allow us to discard potential confounding factors as gender, age, purpose or habitat.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ana Muniesa
- Department of Animal Pathology, Faculty of Veterinary Sciences, Instituto Agroalimentario de Aragón (IA2) (Universidad de Zaragoza-CITA), c/Miguel Servet 177, 50013 Zaragoza, Spain.
| | - Ana Peris
- Department of Animal Pathology, Faculty of Veterinary Sciences, Instituto Agroalimentario de Aragón (IA2) (Universidad de Zaragoza-CITA), c/Miguel Servet 177, 50013 Zaragoza, Spain
| | - Juan Antonio Castillo
- Department of Animal Pathology, Faculty of Veterinary Sciences, Instituto Agroalimentario de Aragón (IA2) (Universidad de Zaragoza-CITA), c/Miguel Servet 177, 50013 Zaragoza, Spain
| | - Ignacio de Blas
- Department of Animal Pathology, Faculty of Veterinary Sciences, Instituto Agroalimentario de Aragón (IA2) (Universidad de Zaragoza-CITA), c/Miguel Servet 177, 50013 Zaragoza, Spain
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Christley RM, Mort M, Wynne B, Wastling JM, Heathwaite AL, Pickup R, Austin Z, Latham SM. "Wrong, but useful": negotiating uncertainty in infectious disease modelling. PLoS One 2013; 8:e76277. [PMID: 24146851 PMCID: PMC3797827 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0076277] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/29/2013] [Accepted: 08/23/2013] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
For infectious disease dynamical models to inform policy for containment of infectious diseases the models must be able to predict; however, it is well recognised that such prediction will never be perfect. Nevertheless, the consensus is that although models are uncertain, some may yet inform effective action. This assumes that the quality of a model can be ascertained in order to evaluate sufficiently model uncertainties, and to decide whether or not, or in what ways or under what conditions, the model should be 'used'. We examined uncertainty in modelling, utilising a range of data: interviews with scientists, policy-makers and advisors, and analysis of policy documents, scientific publications and reports of major inquiries into key livestock epidemics. We show that the discourse of uncertainty in infectious disease models is multi-layered, flexible, contingent, embedded in context and plays a critical role in negotiating model credibility. We argue that usability and stability of a model is an outcome of the negotiation that occurs within the networks and discourses surrounding it. This negotiation employs a range of discursive devices that renders uncertainty in infectious disease modelling a plastic quality that is amenable to 'interpretive flexibility'. The utility of models in the face of uncertainty is a function of this flexibility, the negotiation this allows, and the contexts in which model outputs are framed and interpreted in the decision making process. We contend that rather than being based predominantly on beliefs about quality, the usefulness and authority of a model may at times be primarily based on its functional status within the broad social and political environment in which it acts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Robert M. Christley
- Institute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool, Neston, Cheshire, United Kingdom
- National Consortium for Zoonosis Research, Neston, Cheshire, United Kingdom
- * E-mail:
| | - Maggie Mort
- Department of Sociology and School of Medicine, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom
| | - Brian Wynne
- Centre for Economic and Social Aspects of Genomics, Lancaster University, Lancaster, Lancaster, United Kingdom
| | - Jonathan M. Wastling
- Institute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool, Neston, Cheshire, United Kingdom
| | | | - Roger Pickup
- Biomedical and Life Sciences Division, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom
| | - Zoë Austin
- Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom
| | - Sophia M. Latham
- Institute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool, Neston, Cheshire, United Kingdom
- National Consortium for Zoonosis Research, Neston, Cheshire, United Kingdom
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Fish R, Austin Z, Christley R, Haygarth PM, Heathwaite AL, Heathwaite LA, Latham S, Medd W, Mort M, Oliver DM, Pickup R, Wastling JM, Wynne B. Uncertainties in the governance of animal disease: an interdisciplinary framework for analysis. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2011; 366:2023-34. [PMID: 21624922 PMCID: PMC3130391 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2010.0400] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Uncertainty is an inherent feature of strategies to contain animal disease. In this paper, an interdisciplinary framework for representing strategies of containment, and analysing how uncertainties are embedded and propagated through them, is developed and illustrated. Analysis centres on persistent, periodic and emerging disease threats, with a particular focus on cryptosporidiosis, foot and mouth disease and avian influenza. Uncertainty is shown to be produced at strategic, tactical and operational levels of containment, and across the different arenas of disease prevention, anticipation and alleviation. The paper argues for more critically reflexive assessments of uncertainty in containment policy and practice. An interdisciplinary approach has an important contribution to make, but is absent from current real-world containment policy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Robert Fish
- Lancaster Environment Centre, University of Lancaster, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, UK.
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Pioz M, Guis H, Calavas D, Durand B, Abrial D, Ducrot C. Estimating front-wave velocity of infectious diseases: a simple, efficient method applied to bluetongue. Vet Res 2011; 42:60. [PMID: 21507221 PMCID: PMC3090993 DOI: 10.1186/1297-9716-42-60] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/24/2010] [Accepted: 04/20/2011] [Indexed: 01/09/2023] Open
Abstract
Understanding the spatial dynamics of an infectious disease is critical when attempting to predict where and how fast the disease will spread. We illustrate an approach using a trend-surface analysis (TSA) model combined with a spatial error simultaneous autoregressive model (SARerr model) to estimate the speed of diffusion of bluetongue (BT), an infectious disease of ruminants caused by bluetongue virus (BTV) and transmitted by Culicoides. In a first step to gain further insight into the spatial transmission characteristics of BTV serotype 8, we used 2007-2008 clinical case reports in France and TSA modelling to identify the major directions and speed of disease diffusion. We accounted for spatial autocorrelation by combining TSA with a SARerr model, which led to a trend SARerr model. Overall, BT spread from north-eastern to south-western France. The average trend SARerr-estimated velocity across the country was 5.6 km/day. However, velocities differed between areas and time periods, varying between 2.1 and 9.3 km/day. For more than 83% of the contaminated municipalities, the trend SARerr-estimated velocity was less than 7 km/day. Our study was a first step in describing the diffusion process for BT in France. To our knowledge, it is the first to show that BT spread in France was primarily local and consistent with the active flight of Culicoides and local movements of farm animals. Models such as the trend SARerr models are powerful tools to provide information on direction and speed of disease diffusion when the only data available are date and location of cases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maryline Pioz
- Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, Centre de Clermont-Ferrand Theix, Unité d'Epidémiologie Animale, St Genès Champanelle, France.
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Pineda-Krch M, O'Brien JM, Thunes C, Carpenter TE. Potential impact of introduction of foot-and-mouth disease from wild pigs into commercial livestock premises in California. Am J Vet Res 2010; 71:82-8. [PMID: 20043786 DOI: 10.2460/ajvr.71.1.82] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To estimate potential spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) if introduced from wild pigs in California and to evaluate efficacies of various control strategies. SAMPLE POPULATION Data for California livestock and from hunter surveys on wild pigs in California. PROCEDURES A spatial, stochastic simulation model was used to simulate FMD epidemics that might occur if a dairy or beef herd were infected from contact with a wild pig. Index herd location and type were examined, in addition to different statewide movement ban (SWMB) durations, to determine their effect on extent of the epidemic. RESULTS Duration, number of infected premises, size of simulated outbreak, number of culled animals, and spatial distribution of infected herds resulting from the simulated outbreaks varied considerably among geographic regions, depending on index case type and location. Outbreaks beginning in the southern region of California were consistently longest, whereas those beginning in the northern region were shortest. The largest outbreaks resulted from index cases located in the southern and valley regions, whereas outbreaks were smallest when originating in the Sonoma or northern regions. For all regions, when the index herd was a dairy herd, size and duration of the outbreak were consistently reduced with implementation of an SWMB >or= 3 days. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE Introduction of FMDV from wild pigs into a dairy or beef herd could result in a large and rapidly spreading outbreak, potentially affecting large numbers of herds. Size and duration of the outbreak might be reduced with an SWMB; however, the impact is highly dependent on the index herd type and location.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mario Pineda-Krch
- Center for Animal Disease Modeling and Surveillance, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California-Davis, Davis, CA 95616, USA
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Harvey N, Reeves A, Schoenbaum MA, Zagmutt-Vergara FJ, Dubé C, Hill AE, Corso BA, McNab WB, Cartwright CI, Salman MD. The North American Animal Disease Spread Model: A simulation model to assist decision making in evaluating animal disease incursions. Prev Vet Med 2007; 82:176-97. [PMID: 17614148 DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2007.05.019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 82] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2007] [Revised: 05/02/2007] [Accepted: 05/18/2007] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
The North American Animal Disease Spread Model is a stochastic, spatial, state-transition simulation model for the spread of highly contagious diseases of animals. It was developed with broad international support to assist policy development and decision making involving disease incursions. User-established parameters define model behavior in terms of disease progression; disease spread by animal-to-animal contact, contact with contaminated personnel or equipment, and airborne dissemination; and the implementation of control measures such as destruction and vaccination. Resources available to implement disease control strategies, as well as the direct costs associated with these strategies, are taken into consideration. The model records a wide variety of measures of the extent of simulated outbreaks and other characteristics. The graphical interface and output visualization features also make it a useful tool for training and preparedness exercises. This model is now being used to evaluate outbreak scenarios and potential control strategies for several economically important exotic animal diseases in the United States, Canada, and elsewhere. NAADSM is freely available via the Internet at http://www.naadsm.org.
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Affiliation(s)
- Neil Harvey
- Department of Computing and Information Science, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario N1G 2W1, Canada
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