Quantitative Textual Analysis as a means to explore corporate interests in food safety

The growing body of scholarship on the commercial determinants of health has, so far, mostly employed qualitative methods but this is now being complemented by a small, yet growing, corpus of quantitative studies. We illustrate the use of one such method, quantitative text analysis (QTA), in a case study of submissions to a public consultation on a draft scientific opinion by the European Food Safety Authority on the chemical acrylamide, demonstrating how this method can be used and insights that might be drawn from it. We use Wordscores as one example of QTA to illuminate the diverse positions taken by actors submitting comments and then assess whether the final policy documents moved towards or away from the positions taken by different stakeholders. We find a broadly uniform position among the public health community, opposed to acrylamide, contrasting with industry positions that were not monolithic. Some firms recommended major amendments to the guidance, largely reflecting the impact on their practices, while policy innovators seeking ways to reduce acrylamide in foods aligned with the public health community. We also find no clear movement in the policy guidance, likely because most submissions supported the draft document. Many governments are required to conduct public consultations, some attracting enormous numbers of responses, with little guidance on how best to synthesise the responses so the default position is often a count of those for and against. We argue that QTA, primarily a research tool, might usefully be applied in analysing public consultation responses to understand better the positions taken by different actors.

The effect of health-care privatisation on the quality of care

Over the past 40 years, many health-care systems that were once publicly owned or financed have moved towards privatising their services, primarily through outsourcing to the private sector. But what has the impact been of privatisation on the quality of care? A key aim of this transition is to improve quality of care through increased market competition along with the benefits of a more flexible and patient-centred private sector. However, concerns have been raised that these reforms could result in worse care, in part because it is easier to reduce costs than increase quality of health care. Many of these reforms took place decades ago and there have been numerous studies that have examined their effects on the quality of care received by patients. We reviewed this literature, focusing on the effects of outsourcing health-care services in high-income countries. We found that hospitals converting from public to private ownership status tended to make higher profits than public hospitals that do not convert, primarily through the selective intake of patients and reductions to staff numbers. We also found that aggregate increases in privatisation frequently corresponded with worse health outcomes for patients. Very few studies evaluated this important reform and there are many gaps in the literature. However, based on the evidence available, our Review provides evidence that challenges the justifications for health-care privatisation and concludes that the scientific support for further privatisation of health-care services is weak.

Agnogenic practices and corporate political strategy: the legitimation of UK gambling industry-funded youth education programmes

Agnogenic practices-designed to create ignorance or doubt-are well-established strategies employed by health-harming industries (HHI). However, little is known about their use by industry-funded organizations delivering youth education programmes. We applied a previously published framework of corporate agnogenic practices to analyse how these organizations used them in three UK gambling industry-funded youth education programmes. Evidential strategies adopted previously by other HHI are prominent in the programmes' practitioner-facing materials, evaluation design and reporting and in public statements about the programmes. We show how agnogenic practices are employed to portray these youth education programmes as 'evidence-based' and 'evaluation-led'. These practices distort the already limited evidence on these educational initiatives while legitimizing industry-favourable policies, which prioritize commercial interests over public health. Given the similarities in political strategies adopted by different industries, these findings are relevant to research and policy on other HHI.

Epidemiology and Scenario Simulations of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Corona Virus (MERS-CoV) Disease Spread and Control for Dromedary Camels in United Arab Emirates (UAE)

Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV) is a coronavirus-caused viral respiratory infection initially detected in Saudi Arabia in 2012. In UAE, high seroprevalence (97.1) of MERS-CoV in camels was reported in several Emirate of Abu Dhabi studies, including camels in zoos, public escorts, and slaughterhouses. The objectives of this research include simulation of MERS-CoV spread using a customized animal disease spread model (i.e., customized stochastic model for the UAE; analyzing the MERS-CoV spread and prevalence based on camels age groups and identifying the optimum control MERS-CoV strategy. This study found that controlling animal mobility is the best management technique for minimizing epidemic length and the number of affected farms. This study also found that disease dissemination differs amongst camels of three ages: camel kids under the age of one, young camels aged one to four, and adult camels aged four and up; because of their immunological state, kids, as well as adults, had greater infection rates. To save immunization costs, it is advised that certain age groups be targeted and that intense ad hoc unexpected vaccinations be avoided. According to the study, choosing the best technique must consider both efficacy and cost.

Social media network analysis of Smallholder livestock farming communities in the United Kingdom

The creation of targeted policies and actions to help small-scale livestock keepers and reduce the risks associated with disease outbreaks in this sector is hampered by the scarcity of information about smallholder farmers. Smallholders play a crucial part in disease outbreaks containment, hence there is a need for better monitoring methods that take this population into account while gathering data. According to the literature, these communities frequently use social media as a channel for communication and information exchange. In this study we conducted social network analysis of an influential smallholder within the UK and visualised the user follower network. Additionally, we performed influential user analysis, Twitter user categorisation, and community detection to uncover more insights into the livestock farming networks. Our findings reveal distinct communities within the smallholder farming sector and identify influential users with the potential to impact information dissemination and animal health practices. The study also highlights the role of community structure in surveillance and control of animal diseases and emphasises the need for further research to refine our understanding of these communities and their unique characteristics. This work contributes to the growing body of literature on small-scale livestock farming in the UK and underscores the importance of incorporating smallholder communities into disease surveillance and control efforts.

Global inequalities in mental health problems: understanding the predictors of lifetime prevalence, treatment utilisation and perceived helpfulness across 111 countries

Socio-economic inequalities in mental health problems are found in measures covering prevalence, treatment utilisation, and treatment helpfulness. However, whether these inequalities exist globally and what factors explain between-country variation is unclear. We use a nationally representative individual-level survey dataset (Wellcome Global Monitor, 2020) in 111 countries (N = 117,088) to test if socio-economic factors (household income, education), psycho-social factors (stigma perception, trust in health professionals) and country-level factors (GDP, Gini, health expenditure) predict (1) self-reported lifetime prevalence of anxiety and depression symptomology, (2) treatment utilisation and (3) perceived treatment helpfulness talking to a mental health professional and taking prescribed medication. Multi-level logistic regression models were used. Across both HICs and LMICs, being in the richest income quintile within each country is associated with a lower probability of experiencing symptoms of anxiety and depression compared to the poorest quintile (OR = 0.67 CI[0.64-0.70]), as well as a higher probability of talking to a mental health professional (OR = 1.25[1.14-1.36]), and of perceiving this treatment as very helpful (OR = 1.23[1.07-1.40]). However, being among the richest income quintile is not associated with taking prescribed medication (OR = 0.97[0.89-1.06]) and its perceived helpfulness (OR = 1.06[0.94-1.21]) across all countries. Trust in health practitioners is associated with higher mental health professional utilisation (OR = 1.10[1.06-1.14]) and helpfulness (OR = 1.32[1.25-1.40]). This analysis reveals a global 'triple inequality in mental health', whereby disadvantages of lower SES individuals persist in three outcomes (lifetime prevalence, treatment utilisation and helpfulness). Treatment utilisation and helpfulness also vary by trust in healthcare professionals and treatment type. Policymakers must address all three inequalities and their fundamental causes.

Spatio-temporal evaluation of social media as a tool for livestock disease surveillance

Recent outbreaks of Avian Influenza across Europe have highlighted the potential for syndromic surveillance systems that consider other modes of data, namely social media. This study investigates the feasibility of using social media, primarily Twitter, to monitor illness outbreaks such as avian flu. Using temporal, geographical, and correlation analyses, we investigated the association between avian influenza tweets and officially verified cases in the United Kingdom in 2021 and 2022. Pearson correlation coefficient, bivariate Moran's I analysis and time series analysis, were among the methodologies used. The findings show a weak, statistically insignificant relationship between the number of tweets and confirmed cases in a temporal context, implying that relying simply on social media data for surveillance may be insufficient. The spatial analysis provided insights into the overlaps between confirmed cases and tweet locations, shedding light on regionally targeted interventions during outbreaks. Although social media can be useful for understanding public sentiment and concerns during outbreaks, it must be combined with traditional surveillance methods and official data sources for a more accurate and comprehensive approach. Improved data mining techniques and real-time analysis can improve outbreak detection and response even further. This study underscores the need of having a strong surveillance system in place to properly monitor and manage disease outbreaks and protect public health.

Do cash transfers alleviate common mental disorders in low- and middle-income countries? A systematic review and meta-analysis

A large literature has demonstrated the link between poverty and mental ill-health. Yet, the potential causal effects of poverty alleviation measures on mental disorders are not well-understood. In this systematic review, we summarize the evidence of the effects of a particular kind of poverty alleviation mechanism on mental health: the provision of cash transfers in low- and middle-income countries. We searched eleven databases and websites and assessed over 4,000 studies for eligibility. Randomized controlled trials evaluating the effects of cash transfers on depression, anxiety, and stress were included. All programs targeted adults or adolescents living in poverty. Overall, 17 studies, comprising 26,794 participants in Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and South Asia, met the inclusion criteria of this review. Studies were critically appraised using Cochrane's Risk of Bias tool and publication bias was tested using funnel plots, egger's regression, and sensitivity analyses. The review was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42020186955). Meta-analysis showed that cash transfers significantly reduced depression and anxiety of recipients (dpooled = -0.10; 95%-CI: -0.15, -0.05; p<0.01). However, improvements may not be sustained 2-9 years after program cessation (dpooled = -0.05; 95%-CI: -0.14, 0.04; ns). Meta-regression indicates that impacts were larger for unconditional transfers (dpooled = -0.14; 95%-CI: -0.17, -0.10; p<0.01) than for conditional programs (dpooled = 0.10; 95%-CI: 0.07, 0.13; p<0.01). Effects on stress were insignificant and confidence intervals include both the possibility of meaningful reductions and small increases in stress (dpooled = -0.10; 95%-CI: -0.32, 0.12; ns). Overall, our findings suggest that cash transfers can play a role in alleviating depression and anxiety disorders. Yet, continued financial support may be necessary to enable longer-term improvements. Impacts are comparable in size to the effects of cash transfers on, e.g., children's test scores and child labor. Our findings further raise caution about potential adverse effects of conditionality on mental health, although more evidence is needed to draw robust conclusions.

When do democratic transitions reduce or increase child mortality? Exploring the role of non-violent resistance

What explains variation across countries in the effect of democratization on child mortality rates? Democratic transitions, on average, improve health outcomes but there is substantial variation across countries in whether democratization leads to lower-than-expected child mortality post-transition. As yet, there is no convincing quantitative explanation for this variation. In this paper, we argue that whether you have a protest-led or violence-led democratic transition alters the trajectory of child mortality post-transition. Our paper makes two contributions. First, we offer a more detailed account of how the type of resistance movement promoting regime change affects health post-transition. We also draw on novel data to categorise the movements producing democratic transitions as violent or peaceful, moving beyond earlier work which operationalised peaceful democratizations in terms of battle-related deaths. Second, we extend earlier research by examining whether the nature of the democratization movement constitutes a necessary cause of higher or lower-than-expected child mortality following democratization. Across 51 transitions, countries that have a protest-led transition have lower-than-expected child mortality rates after the transition to democracy than countries with other kinds of movements (β = -0.17, p = 0.003). Countries with violence-led transitions, meanwhile, have, on average, higher-than-expected child mortality rates after their transition (β = 0.20, p = 0.001). These associations hold when we adjust for covariates (including all possible combinations of various confounding variables). We also find evidence that protest-led transitions may be a necessary condition for avoiding increased child mortality post-transition. Finally, we conduct a deviant case analysis of transitions that appear to be contrary to our theory, finding that these cases are likely instances of measurement error. Democratization may not always improve health, but such health improvements are more likely when regime change is protest-led. This is because such movements are more likely to build broad coalitions committed to consensual politics post-transition, a critical feature of successful democracies.

Agnogenic practices: an analysis of UK gambling industry-funded youth education programmes

Background

The corporate political activities of harmful industries, including the use of agnogenic (ignorance or doubt producing) practices and the construction of dystopian narratives, directed at influencing policymaking are well documented. However, the use of agnogenic practices by industry-funded organisations who deliver industry-favoured education-based measures remains unexplored. This study aims to build understanding of this by analysing three UK gambling industry-funded youth education programmes that represent key policy responses to gambling harms.

Methods

Using a published typology of corporate agnogenic practices the ways that evidence is used within the programmes’ resources to legitimise their content and implementation were analysed. Programme evaluations and claims about the programmes’ evidence base and effectiveness were also analysed.

Results

Agnogenic practices, including confounding referencing, misleading summaries and evidential landscaping, that resemble those adopted by harmful industries are used within gambling industry-funded youth education programmes and by the charities that oversee their delivery. These practices serve corporate interests, distort the limited evidence in support of youth gambling education measures, and legitimise industry favoured policies.

Conclusions

This novel study demonstrates that agnogenic practices are used to construct utopian narratives that claim that gambling industry-favoured youth education programmes are evidence-based and evaluation-led. These practices misrepresent the literature and evaluation findings and may undermine effective policymaking to protect children and young people from gambling harms.

Key messages

• Gambling industry-funded education programmes warrant greater scrutiny and conflicts of interest need to be addressed.

• The methods and findings of this study are of relevance to other contexts and areas in the field of the commercial determinants of health given other harmful industries adopt similar approaches.

FAIR data pipeline: provenance-driven data management for traceable scientific workflows

Modern epidemiological analyses to understand and combat the spread of disease depend critically on access to, and use of, data. Rapidly evolving data, such as data streams changing during a disease outbreak, are particularly challenging. Data management is further complicated by data being imprecisely identified when used. Public trust in policy decisions resulting from such analyses is easily damaged and is often low, with cynicism arising where claims of 'following the science' are made without accompanying evidence. Tracing the provenance of such decisions back through open software to primary data would clarify this evidence, enhancing the transparency of the decision-making process. Here, we demonstrate a Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable (FAIR) data pipeline. Although developed during the COVID-19 pandemic, it allows easy annotation of any data as they are consumed by analyses, or conversely traces the provenance of scientific outputs back through the analytical or modelling source code to primary data. Such a tool provides a mechanism for the public, and fellow scientists, to better assess scientific evidence by inspecting its provenance, while allowing scientists to support policymakers in openly justifying their decisions. We believe that such tools should be promoted for use across all areas of policy-facing research. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'.

Female political representation and the gender health gap: a cross-national analysis of 49 European countries

Background

Does increased female participation in the social and political life of a country improve health? Social participation may improve health because it ensures that the concerns of all people are heard by key decision-makers. More specifically, when women’s social participation increases this may lead to health gains because women are more likely to vote for leaders and lobby for policies that will enhance the health of everyone. This article tries to examine whether female participation is correlated with measures of health inequality.

Methods

We draw on data from the World Health Organization Health Equity Status Report initiative and the Varieties of Democracy project to assess whether health is better and health inequalities are smaller in countries where female political representation is greater.

Results

We find consistent evidence that greater female political representation is associated with lower geographical inequalities in infant mortality, smaller inequalities in self-reported health (for both women and men) and fewer disability-adjusted life-years lost for women and men. Finally, we find that greater female political representation is not only correlated with better health for men and women but is also correlated with a smaller gap between men and women because men seem to experience better health in such contexts.

Conclusions

Greater female political representation is associated with better health for everyone and smaller inequalities.

The Impact of Monetary Poverty Alleviation Programs on Children's and Adolescents' Mental Health: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Across Low-, Middle-, and High-Income Countries

Poverty alleviation programs, such as cash transfers and monetary grants, may not only lift people out of poverty but, some argue, may improve mental health as well. However, to date, the impact of such programs on children and adolescents' mental health is unclear. We carried out a systematic review and meta-analysis of poverty alleviation interventions providing monetary support and reporting mental health outcomes in 0-19 year olds in low-, middle-, and high-income countries. We searched 11 databases for research published between January 1, 1990 and June 1, 2020 and included interventions offering unconditional and/or conditional monetary support and reporting mental health outcomes. After screening 7,733 unique articles, we included 14 papers (16,750 children and adolescents at follow-up) in our narrative summary. We meta-analyzed data on internalizing symptoms from 8 papers (13,538 children and adolescents analyzed). This indicated a small but significant reduction in adolescents' internalizing problems postintervention compared to control (odds ratio 0.72, 95% confidence interval 0.59-0.88, p < .01; I² = 67%, τ² = 0.05, p < .01). Our narrative synthesis provides further support for the overall effectiveness of cash programs but also notes that monetary support alone may not be sufficient in extreme risk settings and that imposing conditions may be actively harmful for the mental health of adolescent girls. We provide causal evidence that monetary interventions reduce internalizing symptoms of adolescents experiencing poverty. We recommend that future programming thoughtfully considers whether to apply conditions as part of their interventions and highlight the importance of providing additional comprehensive support for children and adolescents living in extreme risk settings.

Outsourcing health-care services to the private sector and treatable mortality rates in England, 2013-20: an observational study of NHS privatisation

BACKGROUND

The effects of outsourcing health services to for-profit providers are contested, with some arguing that introducing such providers will improve performance through additional competition while others worry that this will lead to cost cutting and poorer outcomes for patients. We aimed to examine this debate by empirically evaluating the impact of outsourced spending to private providers, following the 2012 Health and Social Care Act, on treatable mortality rates and the quality of health-care services in England.

METHODS

For this observational study, we used a novel database composed of parsable procurement contracts between April 1, 2013, and Feb 29, 2020 (n=645 674, value >£25 000, total value £204·1 billion), across 173 clinical commissioning groups (CCGs; regional health boards) in England. Data were compiled from 12 709 heterogenous expenditure files primarily scraped from commissioner websites with supplier names matched to registers identifying them as National Health Service (NHS) organisations, for-profit companies, or charities. We supplemented these data with rates of local mortality from causes that should be treatable by medical intervention, indicating the quality of health-care services. We used multivariate longitudinal regression models with fixed effects at the CCG level to analyse the association of for-profit outsourcing on treatable mortality rates in the following year. We used the average marginal effects to estimate total additional deaths attributable to changes in for-profit outsourcing. We provided alternative model specifications to test the robustness of our findings, match on background characteristics, examine the potential impact of measurement error, and adjust for possible confounding factors such as population demographics, total CCG expenditure, and local authority expenditure.

FINDINGS

We found that an annual increase of one percentage point of outsourcing to the private for-profit sector corresponded with an annual increase in treatable mortality of 0·38% (95% CI 0·22-0·55; p=0·0016) or 0·29 (95% CI 0·09-0·49; p=0·0041) deaths per 100 000 population in the following year. This finding was robust to matching on background characteristics, adjusting for possible confounding factors, and measurement error in our dataset. Changes to for-profit outsourcing since 2014 were associated with an additional 557 (95% CI 153-961) treatable deaths across the 173 CCGs.

INTERPRETATION

The privatisation of the NHS in England, through the outsourcing of services to for-profit companies, consistently increased in 2013-20. Private sector outsourcing corresponded with significantly increased rates of treatable mortality, potentially as a result of a decline in the quality of health-care services.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust.

How do income changes impact on mental health and wellbeing for working-age adults? A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Lower incomes are associated with poorer mental health and wellbeing, but the extent to which income has a causal effect is debated. We aimed to synthesise evidence from studies measuring the impact of changes in individual and household income on mental health and wellbeing outcomes in working-age adults (aged 16-64 years).

METHODS

For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, PsycINFO, ASSIA, EconLit, and RePEc on Feb 5, 2020, for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and quantitative non-randomised studies. We had no date limits for our search. We included English-language studies measuring effects of individual or household income change on any mental health or wellbeing outcome. We used Cochrane risk of bias (RoB) tools. We conducted three-level random-effects meta-analyses, and explored heterogeneity using meta-regression and stratified analyses. Synthesis without meta-analysis was based on effect direction. Critical RoB studies were excluded from primary analyses. Certainty of evidence was assessed using Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE). This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020168379.

FINDINGS

Of 16 521 citations screened, 136 were narratively synthesised (12·5% RCTs) and 86 meta-analysed. RoB was high: 30·1% were rated critical and 47·1% serious or high. A binary income increase lifting individuals out of poverty was associated with 0·13 SD improvement in mental health measures (95% CI 0·07 to 0·20; n=42 128; 18 studies), considerably larger than other income increases (0·01 SD improvement, 0·002 to 0·019; n=216 509, 14 studies). For wellbeing, increases out of poverty were associated with 0·38 SD improvement (0·09 to 0·66; n=101 350, 8 studies) versus 0·16 for other income increases (0·07 to 0·25; n=62 619, 11 studies). Income decreases from any source were associated with 0·21 SD worsening of mental health measures (-0·30 to -0·13; n=227 804, 11 studies). Effect sizes were larger in low-income and middle-income settings and in higher RoB studies. Heterogeneity was high (I²=79-87%). GRADE certainty was low or very low.

INTERPRETATION

Income changes probably impact mental health, particularly where they move individuals out of poverty, although effect sizes are modest and certainty low. Effects are larger for wellbeing outcomes, and potentially for income losses. To best support population mental health, welfare policies need to reach the most socioeconomically disadvantaged.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, Chief Scientist Office, and European Research Council.

Does capping social security harm health? A natural experiment in the UK

In this paper, we examine the mental health effects of lowering the UK's benefit cap in 2016. This policy limits the total amount a household with no-one in full-time employment can receive in social security. We treat the reduction in the cap as a natural policy experiment, comparing those at risk of being capped and those who were not, and examining the risk of experiencing poor mental health both before and after the cap was lowered. Drawing on data from ~900,000 individuals, we find that the prevalence of depression or anxiety among those at risk of being capped increased by 2.6 percentage points (95% confidence interval: 1.33-3.88) compared with those at a low risk of being capped. Capping social security may increase the risk of mental ill health and could have the unintended consequence of pushing out-of-work people even further away from the labour market.

Trends in inpatient care for psychiatric disorders in NHS hospitals across England, 1998/99-2019/20: an observational time series analysis

PURPOSE

It is unclear how hospitals are responding to the mental health needs of the population in England, against a backdrop of diminishing resources. We aimed to document patterns in hospital activity by psychiatric disorder and how these have changed over the last 22 years.

METHODS

In this observational time series analysis, we used routinely collected data on all NHS hospitals in England from 1998/99 to 2019/20. Trends in hospital admissions and bed days for psychiatric disorders were smoothed using negative binomial regression models with year as the exposure and rates (per 1000 person-years) as the outcome. When linear trends were not appropriate, we fitted segmented negative binomial regression models with one change-point. We stratified by gender and age group [children (0-14 years); adults (15 years +)].

RESULTS

Hospital admission rates and bed days for all psychiatric disorders decreased by 28.4 and 38.3%, respectively. Trends were not uniform across psychiatric disorders or age groups. Admission rates mainly decreased over time, except for anxiety and eating disorders which doubled over the 22-year period, significantly increasing by 2.9% (AAPC = 2.88; 95% CI: 2.61-3.16; p < 0.001) and 3.4% (AAPC = 3.44; 95% CI: 3.04-3.85; p < 0.001) each year. Inpatient hospital activity among children showed more increasing and pronounced trends than adults, including an increase of 212.9% for depression, despite a 63.8% reduction for adults with depression during the same period.

CONCLUSION

In the last 22 years, there have been overall reductions in hospital activity for psychiatric disorders. However, some disorders showed pronounced increases, pointing to areas of growing need for inpatient psychiatric care, especially among children.

The politics of ageing: how to get policymakers to support lifecourse policies

Background

Given that there is not much evidence that ageing imperils the finance and provision of health care, why do so many policymakers act like it does?

Methods

We break conventional wisdom down into myths and realities, identifying the evidence against them.

Results

A first myth is that ageing produces unsustainable health care costs, which in turn, creates intergenerational conflict over public policy. A second myth is that older people behave as a single group, always pursuing policies that benefit themselves. The final myth is that decisions about policy are made by politicians who pander to that elderly block. The first reality is that most of the problems ascribed to inequality between generations (intergenerational equity) are actually problems of inequality within society as a whole that span across age groups (intragenerational equity). The second reality is that policies that address these broader inequalities are built on the life-course perspective, which focuses on identifying the policies which can make people happier and healthier at all ages by drawing on the context and circumstances under which aging occurs. The third reality is that it is possible to construct coalitions of politicians and interests that can develop and support sophisticated life-course policies that lessen the burdens of ageing and health on everybody.

Conclusions

Intergenerational inequality is not, and need not be, a significant problem for rich countries. It is substantially a product of current and past intragenerational inequality, and in fact inequality between generations often goes with inequality within generations. Intergenerational conflict is a distraction from policies that promote greater equality within and between generations, and talk of an ageing crisis is frequently just another version of longstanding arguments against public social investment from cradle to grave.

How democracy alters our view of inequality and what this means for wellbeing

 

Income inequality is associated with poor health when economic disparities are especially salient. However, political institutions may alter this relationship because democracies (as opposed to autocracies) may be more inclined to frame inequalities in negative rather than positive ways. Living in a particular political system potentially alters the messages individuals receive about whether inequality is large or small, good or bad, and this, in turn, might affect whether beliefs about inequality influence health. Further, media coverage of economic inequality may negatively affect health if it contributes toward the general perception that the gap between rich and poor has gone up, even if there has been no change in income differentials. In this study, we explore the relationship between democracy, perceptions of inequality, and self-rated health across 28 post-communist countries using survey and macro-level data, multilevel regression models, and inverse probability weighting to estimate the average treatment effect on the treated. We find that self-rated health is higher in more democratic countries and lower among people who believe that inequality has risen in the last few years. Moreover, we observe that people in democracies are more likely to learn about rising inequality through watching television and that when they do it has a more harmful effect on their health than when people in autocracies learn about rising inequality through the same channel, suggesting that in countries where there is less trust in the television media learning about rising inequality is not as harmful for health. Our results indicate that while democracies are generally good for well-being, they may not be unambiguously positive for health. This does not mean, of course, that inequality is good for health nor that, on average, autocracies have better health than democracies; but rather that being more aware of inequality can negatively affect wellbeing

Key messages

While democracies are generally good for well-being, they may not be unambiguously positive for health. Being more aware of inequality can negatively affect wellbeing.

Is outsourcing healthcare to private providers associated with higher mortality rates in NHS England?

Background

Outsourcing services to for-profit organisations within a publicly funded healthcare service which runs parallel to private provision in a ‘two-tier' system aims to increase the competition between healthcare providers, driving up their performance. However, some worry that contracting out health services to for-profit providers may lead to cost-cutting and poorer outcomes for patients. We aim to assess whether increased outsourcing to the private sector is associated with changes to treatable mortality rates, and, therefore, with the quality of healthcare.

Methods

We construct a novel database compiling every procurement contract over 7 years (n = 646,938, total value = £204.1bn) across England's Clinical Commissioning Groups (regional health boards). We identify institutions registered on the Companies House registry which supply regional commissioners in England's NHS, and then aggregate this annually with local mortality data. By exploiting the commissioners' variation in spend on private sector providers, we estimate the association between outsourcing and treatable mortality rates in the following year. We account for year and individual fixed effects and control for multiple covariates, including average household income, Local Authority spending, and population size.

Results

Our sample comprised 173 Clinical Commissioning Groups between 2013 and 2020. In general, outsourcing increased over this period, but the extent of change varied substantially. Some areas, like East Riding of Yorkshire, saw very large increases but others saw reductions. We find an annual increase of one percentage point of outsourcing to the private sector corresponds with an annual increase in treatable mortality of 0.34% (95% CI 0·10% to 0·58%) in the following year.

Conclusions

The incorporation of private sector providers into England's NHS appears to be corresponding with a decline in the quality of healthcare services.

Key messages

The private provision of healthcare services has generally increased across England's NHS since 2013. Increased outsourcing of services to private sector providers is associated with increased treatable mortality rates.

Adverse childhood experiences and related outcomes among adults experiencing homelessness: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are strong risk factors for homelessness and poor health and functioning. We aimed to evaluate the lifetime prevalence of ACEs and their associations with health-related and functioning-related outcomes among homeless adults.

METHODS

In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched from database inception to Nov 11, 2020, for original and peer-reviewed studies in English that documented lifetime prevalence of ACEs or associations between ACEs and health-related or functioning-related outcomes. We selected studies if they included a definable group of homeless adults and measured at least four ACE categories. We calculated pooled estimates of lifetime prevalence of one or more ACEs and four or more ACEs with random-effects models. We used the leave-one-out method in sensitivity analyses and studied meta-regressions to explore potential moderators of ACE prevalence. We also did a narrative summary of associations between ACEs and health-related and functioning-related outcomes, as there were too few studies on each outcome for quantitative meta-analysis. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020218741.

FINDINGS

We identified 2129 studies through systematic search, of which 29 studies (16 942 individuals) were included in the systematic review, 20 studies (10 034 individuals) were included in the meta-analysis for one or more ACEs, and 15 studies (5693 individuals) were included in the meta-analysis for four or more ACEs. Studies included samples of adults experiencing homelessness in the USA, Canada, and the UK; participants in the included studies were predominantly male (65·2%) and mean ages ranged between 18·3 and 58·1 years, but many studies did not report race, ethnicity, and sexual and gender minority data. Lifetime prevalence of one or more ACEs among homeless adults was 89·8% (95% CI 83·7-93·7) and the lifetime prevalence of four or more ACEs was 53·9% (45·9-61·7). Considerable heterogeneity was identified in both meta-analyses (I²>95%). Of the potential moderators analysed, the ACE measurement tool significantly moderated the estimated lifetime prevalence of one or more ACEs and four or more ACEs, and age also significantly moderated the estimated lifetime prevalence of four or more ACEs. In the narrative synthesis, ACEs were consistently positively associated with high suicidality (two studies), suicide attempt (three studies), major depressive disorder (two studies), substance misuse (two studies), and adult victimisation (two studies).

INTERPRETATION

The lifetime prevalence of ACEs is substantially higher among homeless adults than among the general population, and ACE exposure might be associated with prevalence of mental illness, substance misuse, and victimisation. Policy efforts and evidence-based interventions are urgently needed to prevent ACEs and address associated poor outcomes among this population.

FUNDING

Rhodes Trust and Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

Family policy and food insecurity: an observational analysis in 142 countries

BACKGROUND

Levels of child malnutrition and hunger across the world have decreased substantially over the past century, and this has had an important role in reducing mortality and improving health. However, progress has stalled. We examined whether family policies (eg, cash transfers from governments that aim to support households with children) are associated with reduced food insecurity.

METHODS

In this observational analysis, we used a dataset of individual-level data that captured experience-based measures of food insecurity and sociodemographic characteristics collected by the Gallup World Poll in 142 countries for 2014-17. We then combined this dataset with indicators of the type and generosity of family policies in these countries, taken from the University of California, Los Angeles' World Policy Analysis Center. We used multilevel regression models to examine the association between the presence of family policies for households with children and the probability of reporting moderate or severe food insecurity or severe food insecurity (moderate or severe food insecurity was defined as a "yes" response to at least four of eight questions on the Gallup Food Insecurity Experience Scale, and severe food insecurity was defined as a "yes" response to at least seven questions). We controlled for multiple covariates, including individual-level measures of social position and country-level measures, such as gross domestic product. We further examined whether this association varied by household income level.

FINDINGS

Using data from 503 713 households, we found that, on average, moderate or severe food insecurity is 4·09 percentage points (95% CI 3·50-4·68) higher in households with at least one child younger than 15 years than in households with no children and severe food insecurity is 2·20 percentage points (1·76-2·63) higher. However, the additional risk of food insecurity among households with children is lower in countries that provide financial support (either means-tested or universal) for families than for countries with little or no financial assistance. These policies not only reduce food insecurity on average, but they also reduce inequalities in food insecurity by benefiting the poorest households most.

INTERPRETATION

In some countries, family policies have been cut back in the past decade and such retrenchment might expose low-income households to increased risk of food insecurity. By increasing investment in family policies, progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 2, zero hunger, might be accelerated and, in turn, improve health for all.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust.

How democracy alters our view of inequality - and what it means for our health

BACKGROUND

Income inequality is associated with poor health when economic disparities are especially salient. Yet, political institutions may alter this relationship because democracies (as opposed to autocracies) may be more inclined to frame inequalities in negative rather than positive ways. Living in a particular political system potentially alters the messages individuals receive about whether inequality is large or small, good or bad, and this, in turn, might affect whether beliefs about inequality influence health. Further, media coverage of economic inequality may negatively affect health if it contributes toward the general perception that the gap between rich and poor has gone up, even if there has been no change in income differentials.

METHODS

In this study, we explore the relationship between democracy, perceptions of inequality, and self-rated health across 28 post-communist countries using survey and macro-level data, multilevel regression models, and inverse probability weighting to estimate the average treatment effect on the treated.

RESULTS

We find that self-rated health is higher in more democratic countries and lower among people who believe that inequality has risen in the last few years. Moreover, we observe that people in democracies are more likely to learn about rising inequality through watching television and that when they do it has a more harmful effect on their health than when people in autocracies learn about rising inequality through the same channel, suggesting that in countries where there is less trust in the television media learning about rising inequality is not as harmful for health.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate that while democracies are generally good for well-being, they may not be unambiguously positive for health. This does not mean, of course, that inequality is good for health nor that, on average, autocracies have better health than democracies; but rather that being more aware of inequality can negatively affect self-rated health.

The health effects of wage setting institutions: How collective bargaining improves health but not because it reduces inequality

Do wage-setting institutions, such as collective bargaining, improve health and, if so, is this because they reduce income inequality? Wage-setting institutions are often assumed to improve health because they increase earnings and reduce inequality and yet, while individual-level studies suggest higher earnings improve well being, the direct effects of these institutions on mortality remains unclear. This paper explores both the relationship between wage-setting institutions and mortality rates whether income inequality mediates this relationship. Using 50 years of data from 22 high-income countries (n ~ 825), I find mortality rates are lower in countries with collective bargaining compared to places with little or no wage protection. While wage-setting institutions may reduce economic inequality, these institutions do not appear to improve health because they reduce inequality. Instead, collective bargaining improves health, in part, because they increase average wage growth. The political and economic drivers of inequality may not, then, be correlated with health outcomes, and, as a result, health scholars need to develop more nuanced theories of the political economy of health that are separate from but in dialogue with the political economy of inequality.

Wage-Setting Policies, Employment, and Food Insecurity: A Multilevel Analysis of 492 078 People in 139 Countries

Objectives. To examine the association between wage-setting policy and food insecurity.Methods. We estimated multilevel regression models, using data from the Gallup World Poll (2014-2017) and UCLA's World Policy Analysis Center, to examine the association between wage setting policy and food insecurity across 139 countries (n = 492 078).Results. Compared with countries with little or no minimum wage, the probability of being food insecure was 0.10 lower (95% confidence interval = 0.02, 0.18) in countries with collective bargaining. However, these associations varied across employment status. More generous wage-setting policies (e.g., collective bargaining or high minimum wages) were associated with lower food insecurity among full-time workers (and, to some extent, part-time workers) but not those who were unemployed.Conclusions. In countries with generous wage-setting policies, employed adults had a lower risk of food insecurity, but the risk of food insecurity for the unemployed was unchanged. Wage-setting policies may be an important intervention for addressing risks of food insecurity among low-income workers.

Management and biosecurity practices by small to medium egg producers in Scotland

1. Information about procedures and biosecurity practices used by small and medium egg producers (SMEPs) is scarce. Anecdotal evidence suggests that biosecurity in such enterprises may be poor, as personnel and equipment move freely between sites and this may be compounded by personnel working on commercial units who keep their own poultry.2. To fill this knowledge gap, a questionnaire was designed and implemented targeting SMEPs in Scotland. Small enterprises were defined as egg producers that have ≥50 laying hens but <350 laying hens; while medium enterprises were defined as egg producers that have ≥350 laying hens but ≤32 000 laying hens. The questionnaire consisted of a total of 56 questions divided into multiple sections, covering the characteristics of the primary keeper, location of the enterprise and size of the flocks, husbandry, marketing of products and health/biosecurity.3. The questionnaire was posted to 375 holdings at the beginning of March 2017 and the survey remained open until the end of May 2017. In total 90 questionnaires were received by the cut-off date of which 76 questionnaires were from SMEPs. Forty were small enterprises and 36 were medium enterprises. For three questionnaires, it was not possible to identify the enterprise type.4. Differences were observed between SMEPs in terms of reported biosecurity and management practices, with medium enterprises reporting the adoption of more biosecurity measures than small enterprises. Furthermore, SMEPs behave differently from backyard poultry keepers and large commercial companies in terms of disease risk.5. In conclusion, it is important to ensure that SMEPs are considered in contingency plans and disease control programmes and that engagement with them is promoted so that the uptake of relevant information, such as awareness of disease control programmes, is optimised.

Estimating antimicrobial usage based on sales to beef and dairy farms from UK veterinary practices

BACKGROUND

Accurate estimation of antimicrobial use (AMU) is important in assessing reduction of agricultural AMU. This cross-sectional study aimed to evaluate several approaches for estimating AMU at the herd level and to report on AMU for beef and dairy farms in Scotland.

METHODS

Pharmaceutical sales data for 75 cattle herds (2011-2015) were screened for antimicrobial products and aggregated by herd and year. Several denominators for usage estimates were calculated and compared for their suitability at the herd level.

RESULTS

The median total mass of active ingredient sold per kg of bovine livestock was 9.5 mg/kg for beef herds and 14.3 mg/kg for dairy herds. The 'highest priority critically important' antimicrobials (HPCIA) were by total mass of active ingredient, 10.6% of all sales; by total defined daily dose veterinary (DDDVet), 29.8% and by DCDvet, 20.0%. These are the first estimates of AMU for beef cattle in the UK, and for cattle of any kind in Scotland. Estimates of herd-level usage based on population correction unit (PCU) were sensitive to low values for PCU for specific herd-years due to their demographic composition.

CONCLUSION

Pharmaceutical sales data can provide useful estimates of AMU, but estimating usage per PCU is not appropriate for comparing groups of cattle with different demographic compositions or for setting herd-level targets. Total mass of active ingredient per kilogram of livestock is more stable and hence suitable than PCU-based methods for assessing AMU at the herd level.

Is health politically irrelevant? Experimental evidence during a global pandemic

OBJECTIVE

To investigate how health issues affect voting behaviour by considering the COVID-19 pandemic, which offers a unique opportunity to examine this interplay.

DESIGN

We employ a survey experiment in which treatment groups are exposed to key facts about the pandemic, followed by questions intended to elicit attitudes toward the incumbent party and government responsibility for the pandemic.

SETTING

The survey was conducted amid the lockdown period of 15-26 April 2020 in three large democratic countries with the common governing language of English: India, the United Kingdom and the United States. Due to limitations on travel and recruitment, subjects were recruited through the M-Turk internet platform and the survey was administered entirely online. Respondents numbered 3648.

RESULTS

Our expectation was that respondents in the treatment groups would favour, or disfavour, the incumbent and assign blame to government for the pandemic compared with the control group. We observe no such results. Several reasons may be adduced for this null finding. One reason could be that public health is not viewed as a political issue. However, people do think health is an important policy area (>85% agree) and that government has some responsibility for health (>90% agree). Another reason could be that people view public health policies through partisan lenses, which means that health is largely endogenous, and yet we find little evidence of polarisation in our data. Alternatively, it could be that the global nature of the pandemic inoculated politicians from blame and yet a majority of people do think the government is to blame for the spread of the pandemic (~50% agree).

CONCLUSIONS

While we cannot precisely determine the mechanisms at work, the null findings contained in this study suggest that politicians are unlikely to be punished or rewarded for their failures or successes in managing COVID-19 in the next election.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Initial research hypotheses centred on expected variation between two treatments, as set forth in a detailed pre-analysis plan, registered at E-Gap: http://egap.org/registration/6645. Finding no difference between the treatments, we decided to focus this paper on the treatment/control comparison. Importantly, results that follow the pre-analysis plan strictly are entirely consistent with results presented here: null findings obtained throughout.

Liberal trade policy and food insecurity across the income distribution: an observational analysis in 132 countries, 2014-17

Background

Eradicating food insecurity is necessary for achieving global health goals. Liberal trade policies might increase food supplies but how these policies influence individual-level food insecurity remains uncertain. We aimed to assess the association between liberal trade policies and food insecurity at the individual level, and whether this association varies across country-income and household-income groups.

Methods

For this observational analysis, we combined individual-level data from the Food and Agricultural Organization of the UN with a country-level trade policy index from the Konjunkturforschungsstelle Swiss Economic Institute. We examined the association between a country's trade policy score and the probability of individuals reporting moderate-severe or severe food insecurity using regression models and algorithmic weighting procedures. We controlled for multiple covariates, including gross domestic product, democratisation level, and population size. Additionally, we examined heterogeneity by country and household income.

Results

Our sample comprised 460 102 individuals in 132 countries for the period of 2014–17. Liberal trade policy was not significantly associated with moderate-severe or severe food insecurity after covariate adjustment. However, among households in high-income countries with incomes higher than US$25 430 per person per year (adjusted for purchasing power parity), a unit increase in the trade policy index (more liberal) corresponded to a 0·07% (95% CI −0·10 to −0·04) reduction in the predicted probability of reporting moderate-severe food insecurity. Among households in the lowest income decile (<$450 per person per year) in low-income countries, a unit increase in the trade policy index was associated with a 0·35% (0·06 to 0·60) increase in the predicted probability of reporting moderate-severe food insecurity.

Interpretation

The relationship between liberal trade policy and food insecurity varied across countries and households. Liberal trade policy was predominantly associated with lower food insecurity in high-income countries but corresponded to increased food insecurity among the world's poorest households in low-income countries.

Funding

Joseph Rowntree Foundation, Economic and Social Research Council.

Perinatal mortality in 23 beef herds in Orkney: incidence, risk factors and aetiology

BACKGROUND

Perinatal mortality in beef calves impacts on profitability and animal welfare, but the incidence and causes in UK herds are not well known.

METHODS

Data from 11 herds were analysed to establish the risk factors for and incidence of perinatal mortality (full-term calves born dead or died within 48 hours). To establish cause of death, 23 herds in total submitted dead calves for postmortem examination (nine herds submitted all calves, 14 herds submitted calves on an ad hoc basis) and the results were reviewed by a panel.

RESULTS

The incidence of perinatal mortality for all 1059 calvings was 5.1 per cent (range 1.6-12.4 per cent across herds; median 4 per cent). The incidence of stillbirth and neonatal mortality was 3.9 per cent (range 0-10.1 per cent) and 1.2 per cent (range 0-2.6 per cent), respectively. Sex of the calf, plurality and level of calving assistance were associated with significantly greater risk of perinatal loss. Parturition-related deaths (n=20), intrauterine infections (n=13), congenital malformations (n=6) and postpartum infections (n=6) were among the diagnosis recorded from 54 calves investigated. Parturition-related deaths and congenital malformations were recorded more commonly from herds submitting all losses than from those submitting on an ad hoc basis.

CONCLUSION

Variation in perinatal incidence across herds exists and many fail to reach the 2 per cent target. Some significant risk factors and common causes of death identified have the potential to decrease perinatal mortality rates through improved herd management.

The Use of Sheep Movement Data to Inform Design and Interpretation of Slaughterhouse-Based Surveillance Activities

The design of surveillance strategies is often a compromise between science, feasibility, and available resources, especially when sampling is based at fixed locations, such as slaughter-houses. Advances in animal identification, movement recording and traceability should provide data that can facilitate the development, design and interpretation of surveillance activities. Here, for the first time since the introduction of electronic identification of sheep, the utility of a statutory sheep movement database to inform the design and interpretation of slaughter-house based surveillance activities has been investigated. Scottish sheep movement records for 2015–2018 were analyzed in combination with several other data sources. Patterns of off-farm movements of Scottish sheep to slaughter were described and the spatial distribution of several distinct slaughter populations, throughputs and catchment areas for Scottish slaughterhouses were determined. These were used to evaluate the coverage of a convenience-sample slaughter-house based survey for antimicrobial resistance (AMR). In addition, non-slaughter sheep movements within and between Scottish regions were described and inter-and intra-regional movement matrices were produced. There is potential at a number of levels for bias in spatially-associated factors for ovine surveillance activities based at Scottish slaughterhouses. The first is intrinsic because the slaughtered in Scotland population differs from the overall Scottish sheep slaughter population. Other levels will be survey-dependent and occur when the catchment area differs from the slaughtered in Scotland population and when the sampled sheep differ from the catchment area. These are both observed in the AMR survey. Furthermore, the Scottish non-slaughter sheep population is dynamic. Inter-regional movements vary seasonally, driven by the sheep calendar year, structure of the Scottish sheep industry and management practices. These sheep movement data provide a valuable resource for surveillance purposes, despite a number of challenges and limitations that were encountered. They can be used to identify and characterize the spatial origin of relevant populations and so inform the interpretation of existing slaughterhouse-based surveillance activities. They can be used to improve future design by exploring the feasibility and cost:benefit of alternative sampling strategies. Further development could also contribute to other surveillance activities, such as situational awareness and resource allocation, for the benefit of stakeholders.

Employment relations and dismissal regulations: Does employment legislation protect the health of workers?

Sociologists have long acknowledged that being in a precarious labour market position, whether employed or unemployed, can harm peoples' health. However, scholars have yet to fully investigate the possible contextual, institutional determinants of this relationship. Two institutions that were overlooked in previous empirical studies are the regulations that set minimum compensation for dismissal, severance payments, and entitlements to a period of notice before dismissal, notice periods. These institutions may be important for workers' health as they influence the degree of insecurity that workers are exposed to. Here, we test this hypothesis by examining whether longer notice periods and greater severance payments protect the health of labour market participants, both employed and unemployed. We constructed two cohorts of panel data before and during the European recession using data from 22 countries in the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (person years = 338,000). We find more generous severance payments significantly reduce the probability that labour market participants, especially the unemployed, will experience declines in self-reported health, with a slightly weaker relationship for longer notice periods.

The real inequalities

Background

The ‘greedy geezer’ and ‘poor elderly’ narratives both assume that the older population are homogeneous and that the experiences of older people are universal. This ignores the fact that there are significant health inequalities (i) amongst the older population and (ii) in terms of who gets to be ‘old’ (and for how long). Further, the focus on intergenerational inequality is a deliberate distraction from the far more significant health inequalities that exist in terms of gender, geography, ethnicity, socio-economic status etc across the whole population - regardless of age.

Methods

Health inequalities amongst the older population and inequalities in terms of who gets to be ‘old’ will be examined through health inequalities across the population by gender, geography, ethnicity, socio-economic status etc.

Results

Given, for example, that total intergenerational transfers incorporating private transfers are from the older to the younger, it is quite possible that if we reduce public intergenerational transfers (working age to older) then all we are doing is increasing inherited inequality.

Conclusions

Policy focused on ‘intergenerational equity’ and ‘intergenerational accounting’ will often exacerbate inequalities within generations, to the benefit of the wealthiest and the detriment of much of the population. Win-win solutions only emerge if there is a focus on addressing the many and more profound health inequalities that cross-cut generations.

Can inequalities in political participation explain health inequalities?

Inequalities in health are pervasive and durable, but they are not uniform. To date, however, the drivers of these between-country patters in health inequalities remain largely unknown. In this analysis, we draw on data from 17 European countries to explore whether inequalities in political participation, that is, inequalities in voting by educational attainment, are correlated with health inequalities. Over and above a range of relevant confounders, such as GDP, income inequality, health spending, social protection spending, poverty rates, and smoking, greater inequalities in political participation remain correlated with higher health inequalities. If 'politicians and officials are under no compulsion to pay much heed to classes and groups of citizens that do not vote' then political inequalities could indirectly affect health through its impact on policy choices that determine who has access to the resources necessary for a healthy life. Inequalities in political participation, then, may well be one of the 'causes of the causes' of ill-health.

The rise of hunger among low-income households: an analysis of the risks of food insecurity between 2004 and 2016 in a population-based study of UK adults

Background

Rising food bank use in the past decade in the UK raises questions about whether food insecurity has increased. Using the 2016 Food and You survey, we describe the magnitude and severity of the problem, examine characteristics associated with severity of food insecurity, and examine how vulnerability has changed among low-income households by comparing 2016 data to the 2004 Low Income Diet and Nutrition Survey.

Methods

The Food and You survey is a representative survey of adults living in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (n=3118). Generalised ordered logistic regression models were used to examine how socioeconomic characteristics related to severity of food insecurity. Coarsened exact matching was used to match respondents to respondents in the 2004 survey. Logistic regression models were used to examine if food insecurity rose between survey years.

Results

20.7% (95% CI 18.7% to 22.8%) of adults experienced food insecurity in 2016, and 2.72% (95% CI 2.07% to 3.58%) were severely food insecure. Younger age, non-white ethnicity, low education, disability, unemployment, and low income were all associated with food insecurity, but only the latter three characteristics were associated with severe food insecurity. Controlling for socioeconomic variables, the probability of low-income adults being food insecure rose from 27.7% (95% CI 24.8% to 30.6 %) in 2004 to 45.8% (95% CI 41.6% to 49.9%) in 2016. The rise was most pronounced for people with disabilities.

Conclusions

Food insecurity affects economically deprived groups in the UK, but unemployment, disability and low income are characteristics specifically associated with severe food insecurity. Vulnerability to food insecurity has worsened among low-income adults since 2004, particularly among those with disabilities.