Using a rule-based envelope model to predict the expansion of habitat suitability within New Zealand for the tick Haemaphysalis longicornis, with future projections based on two climate change scenarios

A Scoping Review of Species Distribution Modeling Methods for Tick Vectors

Background

Globally, tick-borne disease is a pervasive and worsening problem that impacts human and domestic animal health, livelihoods, and numerous economies. Species distribution models are useful tools to help address these issues, but many different modeling approaches and environmental data sources exist.

Objective

We conducted a scoping review that examined all available research employing species distribution models to predict occurrence and map tick species to understand the diversity of model strategies, environmental predictors, tick data sources, frequency of climate projects of tick ranges, and types of model validation methods.

Design

Following the PRISMA-ScR checklist, we searched scientific databases for eligible articles, their references, and explored related publications through a graphical tool (www.connectedpapers.com). Two independent reviewers performed article selection and characterization using a priori criteria.

Results

We describe data collected from 107 peer-reviewed articles that met our inclusion criteria. The literature reflects that tick species distributions have been modeled predominantly in North America and Europe and have mostly modeled the habitat suitability for Ixodes ricinus (n = 23; 21.5%). A wide range of bioclimatic databases and other environmental correlates were utilized among models, but the WorldClim database and its bioclimatic variables 1–19 appeared in 60 (56%) papers. The most frequently chosen modeling approach was MaxEnt, which also appeared in 60 (56%) of papers. Despite the importance of ensemble modeling to reduce bias, only 23 papers (21.5%) employed more than one algorithm, and just six (5.6%) used an ensemble approach that incorporated at least five different modeling methods for comparison. Area under the curve/receiver operating characteristic was the most frequently reported model validation method, utilized in nearly all (98.9%) included studies. Only 21% of papers used future climate scenarios to predict tick range expansion or contraction. Regardless of the representative concentration pathway, six of seven genera were expected to both expand and retract depending on location, while Ornithodoros was predicted to only expand beyond its current range.

Conclusion

Species distribution modeling techniques are useful and widely employed tools for predicting tick habitat suitability and range movement. However, the vast array of methods, data sources, and validation strategies within the SDM literature support the need for standardized protocols for species distribution and ecological niche modeling for tick vectors.

Review of the New Zealand Theileria orientalis Ikeda Type Epidemic and Epidemiological Research since 2012

This article sets out to document and summarise the New Zealand epidemic and the epidemiological research conducted on the epizootic of bovine anaemia associated with Theileria orientalis Ikeda type infection, which began in New Zealand in August 2012. As New Zealand has no other pathogenic tick-borne cattle haemoparasites, the effects of the T. orientalis Ikeda type infection observed in affected herds and individual animals were not confounded by other concurrent haemoparasite infections, as was possibly the case in other countries. This has resulted in an unbiased perspective of a new disease. In addition, as both New Zealand’s beef and dairy cattle systems are seasonally based, this has led to a different epidemiological presentation than that reported by almost all other affected countries. Having verified the establishment of a new disease and identified the associated pathogen, the remaining key requirements of an epidemiological investigation, for a disease affecting production animals, are to describe how the disease spreads, describe the likely impacts of that disease at the individual and herd level and explore methods of disease control or mitigation.

Possible Effects of Climate Change on Ixodid Ticks and the Pathogens They Transmit: Predictions and Observations

The global climate has been changing over the last century due to greenhouse gas emissions and will continue to change over this century, accelerating without effective global efforts to reduce emissions. Ticks and tick-borne diseases (TTBDs) are inherently climate-sensitive due to the sensitivity of tick lifecycles to climate. Key direct climate and weather sensitivities include survival of individual ticks, and the duration of development and host-seeking activity of ticks. These sensitivities mean that in some regions a warming climate may increase tick survival, shorten life-cycles and lengthen the duration of tick activity seasons. Indirect effects of climate change on host communities may, with changes in tick abundance, facilitate enhanced transmission of tick-borne pathogens. High temperatures, and extreme weather events (heat, cold, and flooding) are anticipated with climate change, and these may reduce tick survival and pathogen transmission in some locations. Studies of the possible effects of climate change on TTBDs to date generally project poleward range expansion of geographical ranges (with possible contraction of ranges away from the increasingly hot tropics), upslope elevational range spread in mountainous regions, and increased abundance of ticks in many current endemic regions. However, relatively few studies, using long-term (multi-decade) observations, provide evidence of recent range changes of tick populations that could be attributed to recent climate change. Further integrated 'One Health' observational and modeling studies are needed to detect changes in TTBD occurrence, attribute them to climate change, and to develop predictive models of public- and animal-health needs to plan for TTBD emergence.

Models for Studying the Distribution of Ticks and Tick-Borne Diseases in Animals: A Systematic Review and a Meta-Analysis with a Focus on Africa

Ticks and tick-borne diseases (TTBD) are constraints to the development of livestock and induce potential human health problems. The worldwide distribution of ticks is not homogenous. Some places are ecologically suitable for ticks but they are not introduced in these areas yet. The absence or low density of hosts is a factor affecting the dissemination of the parasite. To understand the process of introduction and spread of TTBD in different areas, and forecast their presence, scientists developed different models (e.g., predictive models and explicative models). This study aimed to identify models developed by researchers to analyze the TTBD distribution and to assess the performance of these various models with a meta-analysis. A literature search was implemented with PRISMA protocol in two online databases (Scopus and PubMed). The selected articles were classified according to country, type of models and the objective of the modeling. Sensitivity, specificity and accuracy available data of these models were used to evaluate their performance using a meta-analysis. One hundred studies were identified in which seven tick genera were modeled, with Ixodes the most frequently modeled. Additionally, 13 genera of tick-borne pathogens were also modeled, with Borrelia the most frequently modeled. Twenty-three different models were identified and the most frequently used are the generalized linear model representing 26.67% and the maximum entropy model representing 24.17%. A focus on TTBD modeling in Africa showed that, respectively, genus Rhipicephalus and Theileria parva were the most modeled. A meta-analysis on the quality of 20 models revealed that maximum entropy, linear discriminant analysis, and the ecological niche factor analysis models had, respectively, the highest sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve effect size among all the selected models. Modeling TTBD is highly relevant for predicting their distribution and preventing their adverse effect on animal and human health and the economy. Related results of such analyses are useful to build prevention and/or control programs by veterinary and public health authorities.

A multi-seasonal study investigating the phenology, host and habitat associations, and pathogens of Haemaphysalis longicornis in Virginia, U.S.A

Understanding the abiotic and biotic variables affecting tick populations is essential for studying the biology and health risks associated with vector species. We conducted a study on the phenology of exotic Haemaphysalis longicornis (Asian longhorned tick) at a site in Albemarle County, Virginia, United States. We also assessed the importance of wildlife hosts, habitats, and microclimate variables such as temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed on this exotic tick's presence and abundance. In addition, we determined the prevalence of infection with selected tick-borne pathogens in host-seeking H. longicornis. We determined that the seasonal activity of H. longicornis in Virginia was slightly different from previous studies in the northeastern United States. We observed nymphal ticks persist year-round but were most active in the spring, followed by a peak in adult activity in the summer and larval activity in the fall. We also observed a lower probability of collecting host-seeking H. longicornis in field habitats and the summer months. In addition, we detected H. longicornis on several wildlife hosts, including coyote (Canis latrans), eastern cottontail (Sylvilagus floridanus), raccoon (Procyon lotor), Virginia opossum (Didelphis virginiana), white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), woodchuck (Marmota monax), and a Peromyscus sp. mouse. This latter record is the first detection of a larval H. longicornis on a North American rodent host important to the enzootic maintenance of tick-borne pathogens of humans and animals. Finally, we continued to detect the exotic piroplasm parasite, Theileria orientalis Ikeda, in H. longicornis as well as other pathogens, including Rickettsia felis, Anaplasma phagocytophilum (AP-1), and a Hepatozoon sp. previously characterized in Amblyomma americanum. These represent some of the first detections of arthropod-borne pathogens native to the United States in host-seeking H. longicornis. These data increase our understanding of H. longicornis biology in the United States and provide valuable information into the future health risks associated with this tick and pathogens.

Projecting the potential distribution of ticks in China under climate and land use change

Ticks are known as vectors of several pathogens causing various human and animal diseases including Lyme borreliosis, tick-borne encephalitis, and Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever. While China is known to have more than 100 tick species well distributed over the country, our knowledge on the likely distribution of ticks in the future remains very limited, which hinders the prevention and control of the risk of tick-borne diseases. In this study, we selected four representative tick species which have different regional distribution foci in mainland China. i.e., Dermacentor marginatus, Dermacentor silvarum, Haemaphysalis longicornis and Ixodes granulatus. We used the MaxEnt model to identify the key environmental factors of tick occurrence and map their potential distributions in 2050 under four combined climate and socioeconomic scenarios (i.e., SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, SSP3-RCP7.0 and SSP5-RCP8.5). We found that the extent of the urban fabric, cropland and forest, temperature annual range and precipitation of the driest month were the main determinants of the potential distributions of the four tick species. Under the combined scenarios, with climate warming, the potential distributions of ticks shifted to further north in China. Due to a decrease in the extent of forest, the distribution probability of ticks declined in central and southern China. In contrast with previous findings on an estimated amplification of tick distribution probability under the extreme emission scenario (RCP8.5), our studies projected an overall reduction in the distribution probability under RCP8.5, owing to an expected effect of land use. Our results could provide new data to help identify the emerging risk areas, with amplifying suitability for tick occurrence, for the prevention and control of tick-borne zoonoses in mainland China. Future directions are suggested towards improved quantity and quality of the tick occurrence database, comprehensiveness of factors and integration of different modelling approaches, and capability to model pathogen spillover at the human-tick interface.

Comparison of Habitat Suitability Models for Haemaphysalis longicornis Neumann in North America to Determine Its Potential Geographic Range

Haemaphysalis longicornis Neumann, 1901 is a vector of many pathogens of public and veterinary health importance in its native range in East Asia and introduced range in Oceania. In North America, this tick was first detected in New Jersey in 2017. Currently, this tick has been reported from 15 states of the United States. In this study, we modeled the habitat suitability of H. longicornis using the MaxEnt modeling approach. We separated occurrence records from the published literature from four different geographical regions in the world and developed MaxEnt models using relevant environmental variables to describe the potential habitat suitability of this tick in North America. The predictive accuracy of the models was assessed using the U.S. county locations where this tick species has been reported. Our best model predicted that the most suitable North American areas for geographic expansion of H. longicornis are from Arkansas–South Carolina to the south of Quebec–Nova Scotia in the east, and from California to the coast of British Columbia in the west. Enhanced surveillance and further investigation are required to gain a better understanding of the role that this tick might play in the transmission of diseases to humans and animals in North America.

Climate change and its potential for altering the phenology and ecology of some common and widespread arthropod parasites in New Zealand

Climate change, in the form of global warming, is a current concern and because farming systems, livestock parasites and their hosts are influenced by the weather, it is possible to predict (albeit with some uncertainty) changes in these in some broadly descriptive fashion, as climate changes. This review examines the on- and off-host responses to potential changes in temperature and humidity of a representative selection of arthropod ectoparasites (sheep chewing louse, Bovicola ovis; sheep blowflies, Lucilla spp., Calliphora stygia, and Chrysomya rufifacies; cattle tick, Haemaphysalis longicornis; scrotal mange mite, Chorioptes bovis; cat flea, Ctenocephalides felis; and dog flea, Ctenocephalides canis) that occur in New Zealand and in many other countries, and how these environmental factors can be perturbed by host manipulation. The bioclimatic preferences of the parasites are examined in relation to future broad climate parameters and how parasite life cycles, seasonality and population dynamics may be influenced. Likely adaptations of farming systems to meet climate change imperatives are briefly discussed. Collectively it is estimated that regions of New Zealand faced with warmer, wetter conditions under climate change may see an increase in flystrike and cattle tick prevalence, and perhaps an increase in the biting louse, but fewer chorioptic mange and flea infestations. In contrast, drier, warmer regions will possibly experience fewer ectoparasites of all types with the exception of flea infestations. Economic effects of increases in ectoparasite prevalence, using approximate dipping costs as a model are examined, and risks posed to New Zealand by some exotic arthropod parasites with the potential to invade under climate change, are briefly outlined.

Distribution and molecular characterization of rickettsiae in ticks in Harbin area of Northeastern China

Tick-borne rickettsioses are world-spreading infectious zoonoses. Ticks serve as reservoirs and vectors for Rickettsia and play a key role in transmission of rickettsioses. Most of the Chinese rickettsiosis patients are reported from Northeastern China but the distribution of tick and tick-borne Rickettsia species in Northeastern China remain poorly studied. In this study, a total of 1,286 ticks were captured from the seven counties of Harbin, an area in Northeastern China, and the tick-borne Rickettsia species were identified by PCR and sequencing of rrs, gltA, groEL, ompA and 17-kDa antigen-encoding genes. Of the 5 identified tick species, Haemaphysalis longicornis and Ixodes persulcatus were the predominant tick species in the livestock and vegetation, respectively. Rickettsia raoultii and “Candidatus Rickettsia tarasevichiae” were the two detectable Rickettsia species in the ticks with a 28.8% positive rate but no rickettsiae were found in ticks of Haemaphysalis concinna. R. raoultii detected in 37.6% of the Dermacentor nuttalli, Dermacentor silvarum and H. longicornis ticks while “Ca. R. tarasevichiae” was only present in 22.8% of the I. persulcatus ticks. In particular, the positive rate of both R. raoultii and “Ca. R. tarasevichiae” in ticks from the livestock (40.7%) was significantly higher than that from the vegetation (19.5%). The results indicate that the tick and tick-borne Rickettsia species are diverse in different regions of Harbin due to geographic difference and the ticks from livestock may play a more important role in transmission of rickettsioses to human.

Rickettsiosis is a tick-borne infectious disease of global importance. The disease has been prevailing in Northeastern China but the distribution of tick and tick-borne Rickettsia species from different areas of Northeastern China remain poorly studied. We collected a total of 1,286 ticks in the seven counties with different geographic environments of Harbin, an area of Northeastern China, and all the ticks were classified as Dermacentor nuttalli, Dermacentor silvarum, Haemaphysalis concinna, Haemaphysalis longicornis or Ixodes persulcatus. A total of 28.8% of the ticks tested positive for either Rickettsia raoultii or “Candidatus Rickettsia tarasevichiae”, in which 37.6% of the D. nuttalli, D. silvarum and H. longicornis ticks were positive for R. raoultii while 22.8% of the I. persulcatus ticks were positive for “Ca. R. tarasevichiae”. The positive rate of both R. raoultii and “Ca. R. tarasevichiae” in ticks from the livestock (40.7%) was significantly higher than that from the vegetation (19.5%). All the data indicate that ticks in the Harbin area have a high infection rate with Rickettsia species and domestic animals may have a tick-livestock rickettsial circulation that may play an important role in transmission of rickettsioses.

Predicting the potential distribution of Amblyomma americanum (Acari: Ixodidae) infestation in New Zealand, using maximum entropy-based ecological niche modelling

Although currently exotic to New Zealand, the potential geographic distribution of Amblyomma americanum (L.), the lone star tick, was modelled using maximum entropy (MaxEnt). The MaxEnt model was calibrated across the native range of A. americanum in North America using present-day climatic conditions and occurrence data from museum collections. The resulting model was then projected onto New Zealand using both present-day and future climates modelled under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 (low) and RCP 8.5 (high). Three sets of WorldClim bioclimatic variables were chosen using the jackknife method and tested in MaxEnt using different combinations of model feature class functions and regularization multiplier values. The preferred model was selected based on partial receiver operating characteristic tests, the omission rate and the lowest Akaike information criterion. The final model had four bioclimatic variables, Annual Mean Temperature (BIO₁), Annual Precipitation (BIO₁₂), Precipitation Seasonality (BIO₁₅) and Precipitation of Driest Quarter (BIO₁₇), and the projected New Zealand distribution was broadly similar to that of Haemaphysalis longicornis Neumann, New Zealand's only livestock tick, but with a more extensive predicted suitability. The climate change predictions for the year 2050 under both low and high RCP scenarios projected only moderate increases in habitat suitability along the mountain valleys in the South Island. In conclusion, this analysis shows that given the opportunity and license A. americanum could and would successfully establish in New Zealand and could provide another vector for theileriosis organisms.

A longitudinal study of the effect of Theileria orientalis Ikeda type infection on three New Zealand dairy farms naturally infected at pasture

The aims of this study were to monitor the change in Theileria orientalis Ikeda type infection intensity, haematocrit, milk production and reproduction on three New Zealand spring calving dairy herds, over the 2014-2015 milking season. Three spring calving dairy farms, A, B and C, from high risk (endemically stable), low risk (endemically unstable), and zero risk (disease-free) tick areas respectively were followed through the 2014-2015 milking season. On Farms, A and B, 100 cows were randomly selected at the first visit, and the same cows blood sampled every month thereafter, whilst on Farm C, the whole herd was blood sampled bimonthly (140 cows). Blood samples were tested for haematocrit, by centrifugation, and Ikeda infection intensity, using qPCR. Animals that were Ikeda type PCR positive at the first sampling were described as prevalence cases and cows that were negative at the first sampling and became PCR positive during the sampling period were described as incidence cases. Production and reproduction data were accessed through LIC MINDA® and milk production data was standardised to energy corrected milk (ECM). In addition, the effect of buparvaquone (BPQ) treatment on milk production was estimated on Farm B. The prevalence of infection at the first sampling was 100 % on Farm A, 57 % on Farm B and 26 % on Farm C. The incidence risk of infection over the sampling period on Farms B and C was 25 % and 2 % and the incident rate was 0.026 and 0.002 cases per cow-month respectively. The average infection intensity for prevalence cases on all farms was low throughout the milking season, <7000 Ikeda organisms/μL however, cases of anaemia still occurred. There was no direct effect of infection intensity on milk production or from being a prevalence case compared to an uninfected cow on milk production, across all farms. However, on Farm B there was a loss of 266 kg (95 % CI 82 ̶ 450) ECM (∼20 kg milk solids) for incidence cases and a loss of 458 kg (95 % CI 211 ̶ 710) of ECM for buparvaquone treated cows, compared to uninfected cows. No significant effect of Ikeda infection on reproduction could be shown for Farms B and C, reproductive data for Farm A was not available. The effect of T. orientalis Ikeda type infection on production and reproduction appears to be minimal once animals have passed through the acute phase of infection and reached the chronic, asymptomatic carrier phase of infection.

The effect of month, farm type and latitude on the level of anaemia associated with Theileria orientalis Ikeda type infection in New Zealand cattle naturally infected at pasture

Commencing in 2012, an epidemic of infectious bovine anaemia associated with Theileria orientalis Ikeda type has been present in New Zealand. The aims of this study were to analyse the temporal and spatial effects of T. orientalis Ikeda type infection on the sample submission rates and haematocrits of infected cattle over the first two years of the New Zealand epidemic. The data were collected from 30/08/2012 to 28/11/2014 and included all samples that met the case definition for Theileria associated bovine anaemia (TABA) and tested positive for T. orientalis Ikeda type by PCR. The sample submission rates by month and farm type were highly seasonal with dairy farm submissions peaking in September a month before beef farm submissions peaked. A second lesser peak of dairy farm submissions in April was absent for beef farms. A mixed effects model was fitted to the data and showed a significant interaction between farm production type (dairy or beef) and month of sampling (p=0.006) and between latitude and month of sampling (p=0.024). The estimated haematocrit, adjusted for month and latitude, for dairy cattle=0.125 (95%CI 0.121-0.129) and for beef cattle=0.151 (95% CI 0.138-0.165), p<0.0001. This research shows that infected beef animals tend to be less severely affected than dairy animals and that the month of sampling and latitude of the sampled farm have significant and interacting effects on the level of anaemia associated with T. orientalis Ikeda type infection.