Funding AIDS programmes in the era of shared responsibility: an analysis of domestic spending in 12 low-income and middle-income countries

The Interface between the State and NGOs in Delivering Health Services in Zimbabwe-A Case of the MSF ART Programme

An over-reliance on donor funding for HIV/AIDS healthcare services remains a concern in Africa. This study, therefore, explores the partnership between the Zimbabwean government and an international non-governmental organisation in delivering HIV/AIDS healthcare services. An interpretivist paradigm and descriptive phenomenological design were used to elicit the opinions, perceptions, and experiences of forty purposively sampled key informants. Thematic analysis was employed using ATLAS.ti version 7.1.4 to analyse the data. The differences in terms of policies, structures, and administrative issues between the partners identified challenges in the implementation of the programme. This was demonstrated through the reversal of the gains attained in prevention, care, and treatment. This raises concerns for increased risk of defaulters, drug resistance, and deaths. Therefore, the partners in this endeavour should negotiate an aligned approach for the efficient delivery of HIV/AIDS healthcare services.

Determinants of primary healthcare providers' readiness for integration of ART services at departmental levels: A case study of Lira City and District, Uganda

BACKGROUND

Decreasing or flattening funding for vertical HIV services means that new and innovative ways of providing care are necessary. This study aimed to assess the determinants of readiness for integration of Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) services at the departmental level among primary health care providers (PHCP) at selected health facilities in Lira District.

METHODS

A cross-sectional survey employing mixed methods approaches was conducted between January and February 2022 among 340 primary healthcare practitioners (PHCP) at selected health facilities in Lira district. An interviewer-administered questionnaire was used to collect quantitative data. Quantitative data was analyzed using Stata version 15. and presented as proportions, means, percentages, frequencies, and odds ratios. Logistic regression was used to determine associations of the factors with readiness for ART integration at a 95% level of significance. Thematic analysis was used to analyze qualitative data.

RESULTS

The majority 75.2% (95% CI; 0.703-0.795) of the respondents reported being ready for the integration of ART services. PHCPs who were aware of the integration of services and those who had worked in the same facility for at least 6 years had higher odds of readiness for integration of ART, compared with their counterparts [aOR = 7.36; 95% CI = 3.857-14.028, p-value <0.001] for knowledge and duration at the current facility [aOR = 2.92; 95% CI = 1.293-6.599, p-value < 0.05] respectively. From the qualitative data, the dominant view was that integration is a good thing that should be implemented immediately. However, several challenges were noted, key among which include limited staffing and drug supplies at the facilities, coupled with limited space.

CONCLUSIONS

The study reveals a high level of readiness for the integration of ART services at departmental levels among Primary Healthcare Providers. Notably, PHCPs knowledgeable about integration and those who spent at least six years at the current health facility of work, were strong determinants for the integration of ART services in resource limited settings. In light of these findings, we recommend that policymakers prioritize the implementation of training programs aimed at upskilling healthcare workers. Furthermore, we advocate that a cluster randomized controlled trial be conducted, to evaluate the long-term effects of this integration on overall health outcomes.

Knowledge and perceptions of primary healthcare providers towards integration of antiretroviral therapy (ART) services at departmental levels at selected health facilities Lira district, Uganda

BACKGROUND

Investigations conducted among healthcare providers to assess their knowledge and perceptions towards the integration of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) related services in Sub-Saharan Africa are limited. This study explored the knowledge and perceptions of primary healthcare providers towards the integration of ART management services at departmental levels in health facilities in Lira district.

METHODS

We conducted a descriptive cross-sectional survey that employed qualitative methods of data collection in four selected health facilities in Lira district between January and February 2022. The study involved in-depth interviews with key informants and focus group discussions. The study population consisted exclusively of primary healthcare providers; however, those who were not full-time employees of the participating health facilities were excluded. We used thematic content analysis.

RESULTS

A significant proportion of staff (especially those who are not directly involved in ART) still lack full knowledge of ART services integration. There was generally a positive perception, with some suggesting ART integration can minimize stigma and discrimination. The potential barriers to integration included limited knowledge and skills for providing comprehensive ART services, insufficient staffing and space, funding gaps, and inadequate drug supplies, coupled with increased workload due to enlarged clientele.

CONCLUSION

Whereas healthcare workers are generally knowledgeable about ART integration, but their knowledge was limited to partial integration. The participants had a basic understanding of ART services being provided by different health facilities. Furthermore, participants viewed integration as critical, but it should be implemented in conjunction with ART management training. Given that respondents reported a lack of infrastructure, increased workload, and understaffing, additional investments in staff recruitment, motivation through training and incentives, and other means are needed if ART integration is to be implemented.

Mobilizing Domestic Funds for the HIV/AIDS Response in Nigeria: Estimating the Potential Contribution of the National Health Insurance Scheme

BACKGROUND

Amid the dwindling donor support for HIV in Nigeria, there is an urgent need for additional domestic HIV funding. This study estimates the required financial resources for people living with HIV (PLHIV) and the potential magnitude of domestic resources for HIV through the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) and by prioritizing HIV within the health budget.

METHODS

We estimated the resource needs for providing antiretroviral therapy (ART) to adults, children, and pregnant women living with HIV under 3 scenarios: current coverage rates, coverage rates based on historical trends, and a rapid scale-up situation. We conducted a fiscal space analysis to estimate the potential contribution from macroeconomic growth, the NHIS, and prioritizing HIV within the health budget from 2020 to 2025.

RESULTS

At current coverage rates, the annual treatment costs for adults would range between US$ 505 million in 2020 to US$ 655 million in 2025; for children, it ranges from US$ 33.5 million in 2020 to US$ 32 million in 2025. The annual costs of providing PMTCT at current coverage rates range from US$ 65 million in 2020 to US$ 72 million in 2025. An additional US$ 319 million could potentially be generated between 2020 and 2025 through the NHIS for HIV. Prioritizing HIV within the health budget can generate an additional US$ 686 million.

CONCLUSION

Substantial domestic funds can be mobilized by these means to sustain the HIV response. However, because this additional funding may not be sufficient to cover all PLHIV, a phased approach, initially prioritizing certain populations such as children or pregnant women, is recommended.

Economic costs and cost-effectiveness of conditional cash transfers for the uptake of services for the prevention of vertical HIV transmissions in a resource-limited setting

BACKGROUND

Prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) is critical for halting the HIV epidemic. However, innovative approaches to improve PMTCT uptake may be resource-intensive. We examined the economic costs and cost-effectiveness of conditional cash transfers (CCTs) for the uptake of PMTCT services in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

METHODS

We leveraged data from a randomized controlled trial of CCTs (n = 216) versus standard PMTCT care alone (standard of care (SOC), n = 217). Economic cost data came from multiple sources, with costs analyzed from the societal perspective and reported in 2016 international dollars (I$). Effectiveness outcomes included PMTCT uptake (i.e., accepting all PMTCT visits and services) and retention (i.e., in HIV care at six weeks post-partum). Generalized estimating equations estimated effectiveness (relative risk) and incremental costs, with incremental effectiveness reported as the number of women needing CCTs for an additional PMTCT uptake or retention. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of the CCTs at various levels of willingness-to-pay and assessed uncertainty using deterministic sensitivity analysis and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves.

RESULTS

Mean costs per participant were I$516 (CCTs) and I$431 (SOC), representing an incremental cost of I$85 (95% CI: 59, 111). PMTCT uptake was more likely for CCTs vs SOC (68% vs 53%, p < 0.05), with seven women needing CCTs for each additional PMTCT service uptake; twelve women needed CCTs for an additional PMTCT retention. The incremental cost-effectiveness of CCTs vs SOC was I$595 (95% CI: I$550, I$638) for PMTCT uptake and I$1028 (95% CI: I$931, I$1125) for PMTCT retention. CCTs would be an efficient use of resources if society's willingness-to-pay for an additional woman who takes up PMTCT services is at least I$640. In the worst-case scenario, the findings remained relatively robust.

CONCLUSIONS

Given the relatively low cost of the CCTs, policies supporting CCTs may decrease onward HIV transmission and expedite progress toward ending the epidemic.

Viral load monitoring for people living with HIV in the era of test and treat: progress made and challenges ahead - a systematic review

Background

In 2016, we conducted a systematic review to assess the feasibility of treatment monitoring for people living with HIV (PLHIV) receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in low and middle-income countries (LMICs), in line with the 90-90-90 treatment target. By 2020, global estimates suggest the 90-90-90 target, particularly the last 90, remains unattainable in many LMICs. This study aims to review the progress and identify needs for public health interventions to improve viral load monitoring and viral suppression for PLHIV in LMICs.

Methods

A literature search was conducted using an update of the initial search strategy developed for the 2016 review. Electronic databases (Medline and PubMed) were searched to identify relevant literature published in English between Dec 2015 and August 2021. The primary outcome was initial viral load (VL) monitoring (the proportion of PLHIV on ART and eligible for VL monitoring who received a VL test). Secondary outcomes included follow-up VL monitoring (the proportion of PLHIV who received a follow-up VL after an initial elevated VL test), confirmation of treatment failure (the proportion of PLHIV who had two consecutive elevated VL results) and switching treatment regimen rates (the proportion of PLHIV who switched treatment regimen after confirmation of treatment failure).

Results

The search strategy identified 1984 non-duplicate records, of which 34 studies were included in the review. Marked variations in initial VL monitoring coverage were reported across study settings/countries (range: 12–93% median: 74% IQR: 46–82%) and study populations (adults (range: 25–96%, median: 67% IQR: 50–84%), children, adolescents/young people (range: 2–94%, median: 72% IQR: 47–85%), and pregnant women (range: 32–82%, median: 57% IQR: 43–71%)). Community-based models reported higher VL monitoring (median: 85%, IQR: 82-88%) compared to decentralised care at primary health facility (median: 64%, IRQ: 48-82%). Suboptimal uptake of follow-up VL monitoring and low regimen switching rates were observed.

Conclusions

Substantial gaps in VL coverage across study settings and study populations were evident, with limited data availability outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Further research is needed to fill the data gaps. Development and implementation of innovative, community-based interventions are required to improve VL monitoring and address the “failure cascade” in PLHIV on ART who fail to achieve viral suppression.

An integrated hospital-district performance evaluation for communicable diseases in low-and middle-income countries: Evidence from a pilot in three sub-Saharan countries

Introduction

The last two decades saw an extensive effort to design, develop and implement integrated and multidimensional healthcare evaluation systems in high-income countries. However, in low- and middle-income countries, few experiences of such systems implementation have been reported in the scientific literature. We developed and piloted an innovative evaluation tool to assess the performance of health services provision for communicable diseases in three sub-Saharan African countries.

Material and methods

A total of 42 indicators, 14 per each communicable disease care pathway, were developed. A sub-set of 23 indicators was included in the evaluation process. The communicable diseases care pathways were developed for Tuberculosis, Gastroenteritis, and HIV/AIDS, including indicators grouped in four care phases: prevention (or screening), diagnosis, treatment, and outcome. All indicators were calculated for the period 2017–2019, while performance evaluation was performed for the year 2019. The analysis involved four health districts and their relative hospitals in Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Uganda.

Results

Substantial variability was observed over time and across the four different districts. In the Tuberculosis pathway, the majority of indicators scored below the standards and below-average performance was mainly reported for prevention and diagnosis phases. Along the Gastroenteritis pathway, excellent performance was instead evaluated for most indicators and the highest scores were reported in prevention and treatment phases. The HIV/AIDS pathway indicators related to screening and outcome phases were below the average score, while good or excellent performance was registered within the treatment phase.

Conclusions

The bottom-up approach and stakeholders’ engagement increased local ownership of the process and the likelihood that findings will inform health services performance and quality of care. Despite the intrinsic limitations of data sources, this framework may contribute to promoting good governance, performance evaluation, outcomes measurement and accountability in settings characterised by multiple healthcare service providers.

Cost effectiveness of simplified HCV screening-and-treatment interventions for people who inject drugs in Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Compared to other countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Tanzania has a relatively progressive illicit drug harm reduction (HR) policy, through a predominantly opioid substitution therapy-based programme. However, access to hepatitis C virus (HCV) diagnosis and curative direct acting antiviral therapy remains elusive. We developed a cost-effectiveness model to evaluate a simplified HCV screening-and-treatment intervention amongst PWID in Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania.

METHODS

A decision tree and Markov state transition model compared existing practice (no access to HCV viral confirmation and treatment) with the integration of point-of-care HCV screening and treatment within (1) existing HR services and (2) expansion to include PWID not currently engaged in HR. Outcome measures were screening, treatment, HR and disease-related costs per PWID, quality-adjusted life years (QALY) and disability adjusted life years (DALY). Cost-effectiveness was evaluated from a healthcare payer's perspective over a 30-year time horizon over a range of willingness-to-pay thresholds (USD$273 to USD$1,050). Both deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses have been conducted.

RESULTS

Assuming a chronic HCV prevalence of 18.8%, screening-and-treatment in existing HR settings resulted in an ICER per QALY-gained and DALY averted of USD$633 and USD$1,161, respectively. Expanding to include an outreach programme for unengaged PWID yielded an ICER per QALY-gained and DALY-averted of USD$4,091 and USD$10,288. Factors affecting the sensitivity of the ICER value included the cost of HR and the health utility of non-cirrhotic disease states.

CONCLUSION

Simplified HCV screening and treatment of PWID has the potential to be cost-effective in Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania. In practice, synergism of human and financial resources with established health programmes may offer a pragmatic solution to minimise operational costs.

The impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on HIV care in 65 South African primary care clinics: an interrupted time series analysis

BACKGROUND

The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV outcomes in low-income and middle-income countries is poorly described. We aimed to measure the impact of the 2020 national COVID-19 lockdown on HIV testing and treatment in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, where 1·7 million people are living with HIV.

METHODS

In this interrupted time series analysis, we analysed anonymised programmatic data from 65 primary care clinics in KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa. We included data from people testing for HIV, initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART), and collecting ART at participating clinics during the study period, with no age restrictions. We used descriptive statistics to summarise demographic and clinical data, and present crude summaries of the main outcomes of numbers of HIV tests per month, ART initiations per week, and ART collection visits per week, before and after the national lockdown that began on March 27, 2020. We used Poisson segmented regression models to estimate the immediate impact of the lockdown on these outcomes, as well as post-lockdown trends.

FINDINGS

Between Jan 1, 2018, and July 31, 2020, we recorded 1 315 439 HIV tests. Between Jan 1, 2018, and June 15, 2020, we recorded 71 142 ART initiations and 2 319 992 ART collection visits. We recorded a median of 41 926 HIV tests per month before lockdown (January, 2018, to March, 2020; IQR 37 838-51 069) and a median of 38 911 HIV tests per month after lockdown (April, 2020, to July, 2020; IQR 32 699-42 756). In the Poisson regression model, taking into account long-term trends, lockdown was associated with an estimated 47·6% decrease in HIV testing in April, 2020 (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0·524, 95% CI 0·446-0·615). ART initiations decreased from a median of 571 per week before lockdown (IQR 498-678), to 375 per week after lockdown (331-399), with an estimated 46·2% decrease in the Poisson regression model in the first week of lockdown (March 30, 2020, to April 5, 2020; IRR 0·538, 0·459-0·630). There was no marked change in the number of ART collection visits (median 18 519 visits per week before lockdown [IQR 17 074-19 922] vs 17 863 visits per week after lockdown [17 509-18 995]; estimated effect in the first week of lockdown IRR 0·932, 95% CI 0·794-1·093). As restrictions eased, HIV testing and ART initiations gradually improved towards pre-lockdown levels (slope change 1·183/month, 95% CI 1·113-1·256 for HIV testing; 1·156/month, 1·085-1·230 for ART initiations).

INTERPRETATION

ART provision was generally maintained during the 2020 COVID-19 lockdown, but HIV testing and ART initiations were heavily impacted. Strategies to increase testing and treatment initiation should be implemented.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, Africa Oxford Initiative.

Twenty Years Of Antiretroviral Therapy For People Living With HIV: Global Costs, Health Achievements, Economic Benefits

Since the introduction of azidothymidine in 1987, significant improvements in treatment for people living with HIV have yielded substantial improvements in global health as a result of the unique benefits of antiretroviral therapy (ART). ART averted 9.5 million deaths worldwide in 1995-2015, with global economic benefits of $1.05 trillion. For every $1 spent on ART, $3.50 in benefits accrued globally. If treatment scale-up achieves the global 90-90-90 targets of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, a total of 34.9 million deaths are projected to be averted between 1995 and 2030. Approximately 40.2 million new HIV infections could also be averted by ART, and economic gains could reach $4.02 trillion in 2030. Having provided ART to 19.5 million people represents a major human achievement. However, 15.2 million infected people are currently not receiving treatment, which represents a significant lost opportunity. Further treatment scale-up could yield even greater health and economic benefits.

The cost of reaching the 90-90-90 targets: are current investments enough?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The 90-90-90 targets were launched with the aim of reaching specific milestones by 2020. To support these targets, modeling has shown that additional resources are needed. This review examines what is known about current investments for HIV in low and middle-income countries, resource needs, and the potential for additional investment.

RECENT FINDINGS

Reaching the 90-90-90 targets would place the global community on track to end the AIDS epidemic by 2030, significantly improving health outcomes and reducing future spending needs. Recent analyses indicate, however, that funding has slowed and there is a significant gap in resources needed to reach targets. While some studies have modeled the potential for additional HIV spending based on normative and theoretical benchmarks, there are limitations to such approaches. Others have looked at the potential to increase efficiencies. Even if spending continues at recent rates, there would still be a gap of $6.4 billion in 2020.

SUMMARY

There is a significant gap in resources needed to reach the 90-90-90 targets by 2020. It may be possible to reduce the gap through more efficient allocation of resources. In addition, there are efforts underway to mobilize more investment. Ultimately, any gap that remains has implications for health outcomes and future spending.

The state of costing research for HIV interventions in sub-Saharan Africa

The past decade has seen a growing emphasis on the production of high-quality costing data to improve the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of global health interventions. The need for such data is especially important for decision making and priority setting across HIV services from prevention and testing to treatment and care. To help address this critical need, the Global Health Cost Consortium was created in 2016, in part to conduct a systematic search and screening of the costing literature for HIV and TB interventions in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). The purpose of this portion of the remit was to compile, standardise, and make publicly available published cost data (peer-reviewed and gray) for public use. We limit our analysis to a review of the quantity and characteristics of published cost data from HIV interventions in sub-Saharan Africa. First, we document the production of cost data over 25 years, including density over time, geography, publication venue, authorship and type of intervention. Second, we explore key methods and reporting for characteristics including urbanicity, platform type, ownership and scale. Although the volume of HIV costing data has increased substantially on the continent, cost reporting is lacking across several dimensions. We find a dearth of cost estimates from HIV interventions in west Africa, as well as inconsistent reporting of key dimensions of cost including platform type, ownership and urbanicity. Further, we find clear evidence of a need for renewed focus on the consistent reporting of scale by authors of costing and cost-effectiveness analyses.

Estimators Used in Multisite Healthcare Costing Studies in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Review and Simulation Study

BACKGROUND

In low- and middle-income countries, multisite costing studies are increasingly used to estimate healthcare program costs. These studies have employed a variety of estimators to summarize sample data and make inferences about overall program costs.

OBJECTIVE

We conducted a systematic review and simulation study to describe these estimation methods and quantify their performance in terms of expected bias and variance.

METHODS

We reviewed the published literature through January 2017 to identify multisite costing studies conducted in low- and middle-income countries and extracted data on analytic approaches. To assess estimator performance under realistic conditions, we conducted a simulation study based on 20 empirical cost data sets.

RESULTS

The most commonly used estimators were the volume-weighted mean and the simple mean, despite theoretical reasons to expect bias in the simple mean. When we tested various estimators in realistic study scenarios, the simple mean exhibited an upward bias ranging from 12% to 113% of the true cost across a range of study sample sizes and data sets. The volume-weighted mean exhibited minimal bias and substantially lower root mean squared error. Further gains were possible using estimators that incorporated auxiliary information on delivery volumes.

CONCLUSIONS

The choice of summary estimator in multisite costing studies can significantly influence study findings and, therefore, the economic analyses they inform. Use of the simple mean to summarize the results of multisite costing studies should be considered inappropriate. Our study demonstrates that several alternative better-performing methods are available.

Factors Associated With Success in Reducing HIV Mother-to-child Transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa: Interviews With Key Stakeholders

PURPOSE

A key global health challenge is the persistence of new pediatric HIV infections due to mother-to-child transmission (MCTC), particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. The purpose of this study was to identify the key strategies that some sub-Saharan African countries have used to successfully reduce new pediatric HIV infections.

METHODS

A qualitative study utilizing semistructured interviews with key stakeholders in 6 sub-Saharan African countries (Burundi, Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, Swaziland, and Uganda) was conducted from September 2017 to September 2018. These stakeholders were situated in the National Department of Health or in international health-funding bodies relating to the provision of the HIV/AIDS implementation program in these countries. The countries were selected based on considerable success achieved with HIV treatment in pregnant women. Audio-recorded interviews were transcribed verbatim and thematic analysis was undertaken.

FINDINGS

In all, 6 interviews were conducted, and the mean time of the interviews was 62 min. There were similar numbers of men and women, and most were in the 35- to 45-year age group. Five in six were either a medical doctor or held a doctorate degree. Four in six had >10 years of experience working in the prevention of HIV (PMTCT). Four key strategies that contributed to significant reductions in pediatric HIV infection in the respective countries were identified: (1) committed political leadership; (2) support structures within the community; (3) innovation in service delivery; and (4) robust monitoring and evaluation systems. Stakeholders spoke about how their governments played a leading role in engagement with communities, and in the dissemination of services. Innovative service delivery comprising task-shifting initiatives and the integration of maternal, newborn, and child health and HIV PMCTC services played an important role in reducing the burdens experienced by women and health care workers, leading to improved health outcomes. Peer support also helped mothers to adhere to their treatment during and after pregnancy. The capacity of national programs to monitor and evaluate the PMTCT services and the importance of regular viral-load monitoring were highlighted by the stakeholders.

IMPLICATIONS

These strategies can be reviewed for possible implementation by other sub-Saharan African countries as possible means of reducing new pediatric HIV infections.

Protocol for a randomized clinical trial exploring the effect of antimicrobial agents on the penile microbiota, immunology and HIV susceptibility of Ugandan men

Background

The foreskin is the main site of HIV acquisition in a heterosexual uncircumcised man, but many men in endemic countries are reluctant to undergo penile circumcision (PC). Observational studies suggest that proinflammatory anaerobic bacteria are enriched on the uncircumcised penis, where they may enhance HIV susceptibility through increased foreskin inflammatory cytokines and the recruitment of HIV-susceptible CD4⁺ target cells. This trial will examine the impact of systemic and topical antimicrobials on ex vivo foreskin HIV susceptibility.

Methods/design

This randomized, open-label clinical trial will randomize 125 HIV-negative Ugandan men requesting voluntary PC to one of five arms (n = 25 each). The control group will receive immediate PC, while the four intervention groups will defer PC for 1 month and be provided in the interim with either oral tinidazole, penile topical metronidazole, topical clindamycin, or topical hydrogen peroxide. The impact of these interventions on HIV entry into foreskin-derived CD4⁺ T cells will be quantified ex vivo at the time of PC using a clade A, R5 tropic HIV pseudovirus assay (primary endpoint); secondary endpoints include the impact of antimicrobials on immune parameters and the microbiota of the participant’s penis and of the vagina of their female partner (if applicable), assessed by multiplex enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and 16S rRNA sequencing.

Discussion

There is a critical need to develop acceptable, simple, and effective means of HIV prevention in men unwilling to undergo PC. This trial will provide insight into the causative role of the foreskin microbiota on HIV susceptibility, and the impact of simple microbiota-focused clinical interventions. This may pave the way for future clinical trials using low-cost, nonsurgical intervention(s) to reduce HIV risk in uncircumcised heterosexual men.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03412071. Retrospectively registered on 26 January 2018.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13063-019-3545-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The integration of the global HIV/AIDS response into universal health coverage: desirable, perhaps possible, but far from easy

BACKGROUND

The international community's health focus is shifting from achieving disease-specific targets towards aiming for universal health coverage. Integrating the global HIV/AIDS response into universal health coverage may be inevitable to secure its achievements in the long run, and for expanding these achievements beyond addressing a single disease. However, this integration comes at a time when international financial support for the global HIV/AIDS response is declining, while political support for universal health coverage is not translated into financial support. To assess the risks, challenges and opportunities of the integration of the global HIV/AIDS response into national universal health coverage plans, we carried out assessments in Indonesia, Kenya, Uganda and Ukraine, based on key informant interviews with civil society, policy-makers and development partners, as well as on a review of grey and academic literature.

RESULTS

In the absence of international financial support, governments are turning towards national health insurance schemes to finance universal health coverage, making access to healthcare contingent on regular financial contributions. It is not clear how AIDS treatment will be fit in. While the global HIV/AIDS response accords special attention to exclusion due to sexual orientation and gender identity, sex work or drug use, efforts to achieve universal health coverage focus on exclusion due to poverty, gender and geographical inequalities. Policies aiming for universal health coverage try to include private healthcare providers in the health system, which could create a sustainable framework for civil society organisations providing HIV/AIDS-related services. While the global HIV/AIDS response insisted on the inclusion of civil society in decision-making policies, that is not (yet) the case for policies aiming for universal health coverage.

DISCUSSION

While there are many obstacles to successful integration of the global HIV/AIDS response into universal health coverage policies, integration seems inevitable and is happening. Successful integration will require expanding the principle of 'shared responsibility' which emerged with the global HIV/AIDS response to universal health coverage, rather than relying solely on domestic efforts for universal health coverage. The preference for national health insurance as the best way to achieve universal health coverage should be reconsidered. An alliance between HIV/AIDS advocates and proponents of universal health coverage requires mutual condemnation of discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity, sex work or drug use, as well as addressing of exclusion based on poverty and other factors. The fulfilment of the promise to include civil society in decision-making processes about universal health coverage is long overdue.

Potential for additional government spending on HIV/AIDS in 137 low-income and middle-income countries: an economic modelling study

Background

Between 2012 and 2016, development assistance for HIV/AIDS decreased by 20·0%; domestic financing is therefore critical to sustaining the response to HIV/AIDS. To understand whether domestic resources could fill the financing gaps created by declines in development assistance, we aimed to track spending on HIV/AIDS and estimated the potential for governments to devote additional domestic funds to HIV/AIDS.

Methods

We extracted 8589 datapoints reporting spending on HIV/AIDS. We used spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to estimate a complete time series of spending by domestic sources (government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket) and spending category (prevention, and care and treatment) from 2000 to 2016 for 137 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Development assistance data for HIV/AIDS were from Financing Global Health 2018, and HIV/AIDS prevalence, incidence, and mortality were from the Global Burden of Disease study 2017. We used stochastic frontier analysis to estimate potential additional government spending on HIV/AIDS, which was conditional on the current government health budget and other finance, economic, and contextual factors associated with HIV/AIDS spending. All spending estimates were reported in 2018 US$.

Findings

Between 2000 and 2016, total spending on HIV/AIDS in LMICs increased from $4·0 billion (95% uncertainty interval 2·9–6·0) to $19·9 billion (15·8–26·3), spending on HIV/AIDS prevention increased from $596 million (258 million to 1·3 billion) to $3·0 billion (1·5–5·8), and spending on HIV/AIDS care and treatment increased from $1·1 billion (458·1 million to 2·2 billion) to $7·2 billion (4·3–11·8). Over this time period, the share of resources sourced from development assistance increased from 33·2% (21·3–45·0) to 46·0% (34·2–57·0). Care and treatment spending per year on antiretroviral therapy varied across countries, with an IQR of $284–2915. An additional $12·1 billion (8·4–17·5) globally could be mobilised by governments of LMICs to finance the response to HIV/AIDS. Most of these potential resources are concentrated in ten middle-income countries (Argentina, China, Colombia, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria, Russia, South Africa, and Vietnam).

Interpretation

Some governments could mobilise more domestic resources to fight HIV/AIDS, which could free up additional development assistance for many countries without this ability, including many low-income, high-prevalence countries. However, a large gap exists between available financing and the funding needed to achieve global HIV/AIDS goals, and sustained and coordinated effort across international and domestic development partners is required to end AIDS by 2030.

Funding

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Appraising the value of evidence generation activities: an HIV modelling study

Introduction

The generation of robust evidence has been emphasised as a priority for global health. Evidence generation spans a wide range of activities including clinical trials, surveillance programmes and health system performance measurement. As resources for healthcare and research are limited, the desirability of research expenditure should be assessed on the same basis as other healthcare resources, that is, the health gains from research must be expected to exceed the health opportunity costs imposed as funds are diverted to research rather than service provision.

Methods

We developed a transmission and costing model to examine the impact of generating additional evidence to reduce uncertainties on the evolution of a generalised HIV epidemic in Zambia.

Results

We demonstrate three important points. First, we can quantify the value of additional evidence in terms of the health gain it is expected to generate. Second, we can quantify the health opportunity cost imposed by research expenditure. Third, the value of evidence generation depends on the budgetary policies in place for managing HIV resources under uncertainty. Generating evidence to reduce uncertainty is particularly valuable when decision makers are required to strictly adhere to expenditure plans and when transfers of funds across geographies/programmes are restricted.

Conclusion

Better evidence can lead to health improvements in the same way as direct delivery of healthcare. Quantitative appraisals of evidence generation activities are important and should reflect the impact of improved evidence on population health, evidence generation costs and budgetary policies in place.

Country ownership and sustainability of Nigeria's HIV/AIDS Supply Chain System: qualitative perceptions of progress, challenges and prospects

BACKGROUND

The emergency response phase to HIV epidemic in Nigeria and other countries saw to the deployment of donors' resources with little consideration for country ownership (CO) and sustainability. The progress that has been made in the fight against the pandemic has however precipitated a paradigm shift towards CO and sustainability. With the decline in donors' funding, countries must continually evaluate their readiness to own and sustain their HIV response especially the supply chain system (SCS) and bridge any observed gaps. This study assessed the current understanding of CO and sustainability of Nigeria's HIV/AIDS SCS, established progress that has been made, identified challenges that may be hampering CO and possible recommendations to address these challenges. It also explored opportunities that the country can leverage on.

METHODS

We conducted a cross sectional descriptive study through semi-structured interview of twelve purposefully selected key informants involved in HIV/AIDS supply chain management. Transcribed qualitative data were analyzed using a thematic approach.

RESULTS

Among other submissions, respondents acknowledged that CO involves non-government stakeholders. Key CO and sustainability achievements were: development of national strategic plans and policy documents, establishment of coordinating structures, allocation of funds for some logistics activities at the state level and payment of salaries of government staff, institution of pre-service training, use of logistics data for decision making and the unification of the hitherto parallel HIV/AIDS supply chains. Challenges included: inadequate domestic funding, bureaucratic bottlenecks and inadequate manpower at the health facility level. Respondents recommended more political commitment and increased government funding, exploration of alternative sources of funding, improved accountability, effective healthcare workforce planning and local manufacture of HIV commodities. Existing structures and programmes that the country can leverage on included: Nigeria Supply Chain Integration Project, National Health Insurance Scheme and the private sector.

CONCLUSIONS

Nigeria has made some progress towards achieving CO and sustainability. The country however needs to address financial and human resource gaps through innovative resource mobilization and effective workforce planning. As other countries plan for CO and sustainability, it is important to secure political buy-in and adopt a working definition for CO and sustainability while resource mobilization and workforce planning should be prioritized.

The State of Health Technology Assessment in the Ethiopian Health Sector: Learning from Recent Policy Initiatives

Health technology assessment (HTA) has previously been implemented only in a fragmented manner in the Ethiopian health sector decision-making cycle, and the sector has been hampered by limited institutional capacity and skilled human resources to inform evidence-based decision making. The country is in the midst of widescale implementation of a community-based health insurance scheme and is preparing for the launch of a social health insurance scheme. The country continues to face a limited financial resource envelope, undergoing an epidemiological transition, and is facing a much greater burden of noncommunicable diseases, for which the essential health benefit package, defined 12 years ago, may no longer be suitable. This has called for an in-depth review of the application of HTA in the context of the current health needs and institutional settings. To meet the increasing need for HTA, the Health Economics and Financing Analysis (HEFA) team was established within the Finance Resource Mobilization Department under the Ministry of Health. The HEFA team is tasked with spearheading the application of evidence-based health care decision making in Ethiopia by organizing available evidence, costing interventions, and defining effectiveness measures of the different health programs and then supporting policymakers at the national and regional levels. Improving and harmonizing the institutional approach to HTA, including staffing the HEFA team with the appropriate mix of expertise, and networking with relevant sector organizations will improve Ethiopia's ability to tackle the current health sector challenges as well as protect fledgling insurance schemes' progress toward universal health coverage.

Distributing development assistance for health: simulating the implications of 11 criteria

After years of unprecedented growth in development assistance for health (DAH), the DAH system is challenged on several fronts: by the economic downturn and stagnation of DAH, by the epidemiological transition and increase in non-communicable diseases and by the economic transition and rise of the middle-income countries. Central to any potent response is a fair and effective allocation of DAH across countries. A myriad of criteria has been proposed or is currently used, but there have been no comprehensive assessment of their distributional implications. We simulated the implications of 11 quantitative allocation criteria across countries and country categories. We found that the distributions varied profoundly. The group of low-income countries received most DAH from needs-based criteria linked to domestic capacity, while the group of upper-middle-income countries was most favoured by an income-inequality criterion. Compared to a baseline distribution guided by gross national income per capita, low-income countries received less DAH by almost all criteria. The findings can inform funders when examining and revising the criteria they use, and provide input to the broader debate about what criteria should be used.

Development assistance for health: what criteria do multi- and bilateral funders use?

After years of unprecedented growth in development assistance for health (DAH), the system is challenged on several fronts: by the economic downturn and stagnation of DAH, by the epidemiological transition and increase in non-communicable diseases, and by the economic transition and rise of the middle-income countries. This raises questions about which countries should receive DAH and how much, and, fundamentally, what criteria that promote fair and effective allocation. Yet, no broad comparative assessment exists of the criteria used today. We reviewed the allocation criteria stated by five multilateral and nine bilateral funders of DAH. We found that several funders had only limited information about concrete criteria publicly available. Moreover, many funders not devoted to health lacked specific criteria for DAH or criteria directly related to health, and no funder had criteria directly related to inequality. National income per capita was emphasised by many funders, but the associated eligibility thresholds varied considerably. These findings and the broad overview of criteria can assist funders in critically examining and revising the criteria they use, and inform the wider debate about what the optimal criteria are.

Understanding the dynamic interactions driving the sustainability of ART scale-up implementation in Uganda

Background

Despite increasing recognition that health-systems constraints are the fundamental barrier to attaining anti-retroviral therapy (ART) scale-up targets in Sub-Saharan Africa, current discourses are dominated by a focus on financial sustainability. Utilizing the health system dynamics framework, this study aimed to explore the interactions in health system components and their influence on the sustainability of ART scale-up implementation in Uganda.

Methods

This study entailed qualitative organizational case-studies within a two-phased mixed-methods sequential explanatory research design. In Phase One, a survey of 195 health facilities across Uganda which commenced ART services between 2004 and 2009 was conducted. In Phase Two, six health facilities were purposively selected for in-depth examination involving i) In-depth interviews (n = 44) ii) and semi-structured interviews (n = 35). Qualitative data was analyzed by coding and thematic analysis. Descriptive statistics were managed in STATA (v 13).

Results

Five dynamic interactions in ART program sustainability drivers were identified; i) Failure to update basic ART program records contributed to chronic ART medicines stock-outs ii) Health workforce shortages and escalating patient volumes prompted adaptations in ART service delivery models iii) Broader governance issues manifested in poor road networks undermined ART medicines supply chains iv) Sustained financing for ART programs was influenced by external donors v) The values associated with the ownership-type of a health facility affected ART service delivery and coverage.

Conclusion

The sustainability of ART programs at the facility-level in Uganda is a function of a complex interaction in elements of the health system and must be understood beyond sustaining international funding for ART scale-up.

HIV Prevention in Adolescents and Young People in the Eastern and Southern African Region: A Review of Key Challenges Impeding Actions for an Effective Response

The global commitment to ending the AIDS epidemic by 2030 places HIV prevention at the centre of the response. With the disease continuing to disproportionately affect young populations in the Eastern and Southern African Region (ESAR), particularly adolescent girls and young women, reducing HIV infections in this group is integral to achieving this ambitious target. This paper examines epidemiological patterns of the HIV epidemic among adolescents and young people, indicating where HIV prevention efforts need to be focused (i.e., adolescent girls and young women, adolescent boys and young men and young key populations).

Key innovations in the science of HIV prevention and strategies for dealing with programme implementation are reviewed. The paper also discusses the value of processes to mitigate HIV vulnerability and recommends actions needed to sustain the HIV prevention response. Stemming the tide of new HIV infections among young people in the ESAR requires an amplification of efforts across all sectors, which will safeguard past achievements and advance actions towards eliminating AIDS as a public health threat.

Innovative financing instruments for global health 2002-15: a systematic analysis

Development assistance for health (DAH), the value of which peaked in 2013 and fell in 2015, is unlikely to rise substantially in the near future, increasing reliance on domestic and innovative financing sources to sustain health programmes in low-income and middle-income countries. We examined innovative financing instruments (IFIs)-financing schemes that generate and mobilise funds-to estimate the quantum of financing mobilised from 2002 to 2015. We identified ten IFIs, which mobilised US$8·9 billion (2·3% of overall DAH) in 2002-15. The funds generated by IFIs were channelled mostly through GAVI and the Global Fund, and used for programmes for new and underused vaccines, HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, and maternal and child health. Vaccination programmes received the largest amount of funding ($2·6 billion), followed by HIV/AIDS ($1080·7 million) and malaria ($1028·9 million), with no discernible funding targeted to non-communicable diseases.

Quantifying and reducing statistical uncertainty in sample-based health program costing studies in low- and middle-income countries

Objectives:

In many low- and middle-income countries, the costs of delivering public health programs such as for HIV/AIDS, nutrition, and immunization are not routinely tracked. A number of recent studies have sought to estimate program costs on the basis of detailed information collected on a subsample of facilities. While unbiased estimates can be obtained via accurate measurement and appropriate analyses, they are subject to statistical uncertainty. Quantification of this uncertainty, for example, via standard errors and/or 95% confidence intervals, provides important contextual information for decision-makers and for the design of future costing studies. While other forms of uncertainty, such as that due to model misspecification, are considered and can be investigated through sensitivity analyses, statistical uncertainty is often not reported in studies estimating the total program costs. This may be due to a lack of awareness/understanding of (1) the technical details regarding uncertainty estimation and (2) the availability of software with which to calculate uncertainty for estimators resulting from complex surveys. We provide an overview of statistical uncertainty in the context of complex costing surveys, emphasizing the various potential specific sources that contribute to overall uncertainty.

Methods:

We describe how analysts can compute measures of uncertainty, either via appropriately derived formulae or through resampling techniques such as the bootstrap. We also provide an overview of calibration as a means of using additional auxiliary information that is readily available for the entire program, such as the total number of doses administered, to decrease uncertainty and thereby improve decision-making and the planning of future studies.

Results:

A recent study of the national program for routine immunization in Honduras shows that uncertainty can be reduced by using information available prior to the study. This method can not only be used when estimating the total cost of delivering established health programs but also to decrease uncertainty when the interest lies in assessing the incremental effect of an intervention.

Conclusion:

Measures of statistical uncertainty associated with survey-based estimates of program costs, such as standard errors and 95% confidence intervals, provide important contextual information for health policy decision-making and key inputs for the design of future costing studies. Such measures are often not reported, possibly because of technical challenges associated with their calculation and a lack of awareness of appropriate software. Modern statistical analysis methods for survey data, such as calibration, provide a means to exploit additional information that is readily available but was not used in the design of the study to significantly improve the estimation of total cost through the reduction of statistical uncertainty.

What goes wrong with the allocation of domestic and international resources for HIV?

This paper examines how domestic and international financing for HIV is, and ought to be, distributed. We build a theoretical framework that decomposes domestic and international financing for HIV into nonlinear functions of national income, HIV prevalence, and government effectiveness. We test this model, paying particular attention to nonlinearities and to problems of bad controls, multicollinearity, and reverse causality. Finally, we use the fitted values of quartile regressions to study how much countries could reasonably pay domestically and how much they should receive from donors. Worryingly, countries with higher financial means receive on average more aid per PLHIV than very poor ones, and countries with higher HIV prevalence receive on average less aid per people living with HIV. The normative analysis concludes that US$3.08 billion of fiscal space could be created in LIC and MIC. We identify the countries that could be allocated more aid.

New approaches to ranking countries for the allocation of development assistance for health: choices, indicators and implications

The distributions of income and health within and across countries are changing. This challenges the way donors allocate development assistance for health (DAH) and particularly the role of gross national income per capita (GNIpc) in classifying countries to determine whether countries are eligible to receive assistance and how much they receive. Informed by a literature review and stakeholder consultations and interviews, we developed a stepwise approach to the design and assessment of country classification frameworks for the allocation of DAH, with emphasis on critical value choices. We devised 25 frameworks, all which combined GNIpc and at least one other indicator into an index. Indicators were selected and assessed based on relevance, salience, validity, consistency, and availability and timeliness, where relevance concerned the extent to which the indicator represented country's health needs, domestic capacity, the expected impact of DAH, or equity. We assessed how the use of the different frameworks changed the rankings of low- and middle-income countries relative to a country's ranking based on GNIpc alone. We found that stakeholders generally considered needs to be the most important concern to be captured by classification frameworks, followed by inequality, expected impact and domestic capacity. We further found that integrating a health-needs indicator with GNIpc makes a significant difference for many countries and country categories-and especially middle-income countries with high burden of unmet health needs-while the choice of specific indicator makes less difference. This together with assessments of relevance, salience, validity, consistency, and availability and timeliness suggest that donors have reasons to include a health-needs indicator in the initial classification of countries. It specifically suggests that life expectancy and disability-adjusted life year rate are indicators worth considering. Indicators related to other concerns may be mainly relevant at different stages of the decision-making process, require better data, or both.

Innovative financing for HIV response in sub-Saharan Africa

Background

In 2015 around 15 million people living with HIV were receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART) in sub–Saharan Africa. Sustained provision of ART, though both prudent and necessary, creates substantial long–term fiscal obligations for countries affected by HIV/AIDS. As donor assistance for health remains constrained, novel financing mechanisms are needed to augment funding domestic sources. We explore how Innovative Financing has been used to co–finance domestic HIV/AIDS responses. Based on analysis of non–health sectors, we identify innovative financing instruments that could be used in the HIV response.

Methods

We undertook a systematic review to identify innovative financing instruments used for (1) domestic HIV/AIDS financing in sub–Saharan Africa (2) international health financing and (3) financing in non–health sectors. We analyzed peer–reviewed and grey literature published between 2002 and 2014. We examined the nature and volume of funds mobilized with innovative financing, then in consultation with leading experts, identified instruments that held potential for financing the HIV response.

Results

Our analysis revealed three innovative financing instruments in use: Zimbabwe’s AIDS Trust Fund (a tax/levy–based instrument), Botswana’s National HIV/AIDS Prevention Support (BNAPS) International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) Buy–Down (a debt conversion instrument), and Côte d'Ivoire's Debt2Health Debt Swap Agreement (a debt conversion instrument). Zimbabwe’s AIDS Trust Fund generated US$ 52.7 million between 2008 and 2011, Botswana’s IBRD Buy–Down generated US$ 20 million, and Côte d’Ivoire’s Debt2Health Debt Swap Agreement generated US$ 27 million, at least half of which was to be invested in HIV/AIDS programs. Four additional categories of innovative financing instruments met our criteria for future use: (1) remittances and diaspora bonds (2) social and development impact bonds (3) sovereign wealth funds (4) risk and credit guarantees.

Conclusion

A limited number of innovative financing instruments contributed a very modest share of funding toward domestic HIV/AIDS programs. Several innovative financing instruments successfully applied in other sectors could be used to augment domestic financing toward HIV/AIDS programmes.

Consequences of a changing US strategy in the global HIV investment landscape

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text

Objective:

The global fight against HIV/AIDS in Africa has long been a focus of US foreign policy, but this could change if the federal budget for 2018 proposed by the US Office of Management and Budget is adopted. We aim to inform public and Congressional debate around this issue by evaluating the historical and potential future impact of US investment in the African HIV response.

Design/methods:

We use a previously published mathematical model of HIV transmission to characterize the possible impact of a series of financial scenarios for the historical and future AIDS response across Sub-Saharan Africa.

Results:

We find that US funding has saved nearly five million adults in Sub-Saharan Africa from AIDS-related deaths. In the coming 15 years, if current numbers on antiretroviral treatment are maintained without further expansion of programs (the proposed US strategy), nearly 26 million new HIV infections and 4.4 million AIDS deaths may occur. A 10% increase in US funding, together with ambitious domestic spending and focused attention on optimizing resources, can avert up to 22 million HIV infections and save 2.3 million lives in Sub-Saharan Africa compared with the proposed strategy.

Conclusion:

Our synthesis of available evidence shows that the United States has played, and could continue to play, a vital role in the global HIV response. Reduced investment could allow more than two million avoidable AIDS deaths by 2032, whereas continued leadership by the United States and other countries could bring UNAIDS targets for ending the epidemic into reach.

Can differentiated care models solve the crisis in HIV treatment financing? Analysis of prospects for 38 countries in sub-Saharan Africa

Introduction: Rapid scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the context of financial and health system constraints has resulted in calls to maximize efficiency in ART service delivery. Adopting differentiated care models (DCMs) for ART could potentially be more cost-efficient and improve outcomes. However, no study comprehensively projects the cost savings across countries. We model the potential reduction in facility-level costs and number of health workers needed when implementing two types of DCMs while attempting to reach 90-90-90 targets in 38 sub-Saharan African countries from 2016 to 2020.

Methods: We estimated the costs of three service delivery models: (1) undifferentiated care, (2) differentiated care by patient age and stability, and (3) differentiated care by patient age, stability, key vs. general population status, and urban vs. rural location. Frequency of facility visits, type and frequency of laboratory testing, and coverage of community ART support vary by patient subgroup. For each model, we estimated the total costs of antiretroviral drugs, laboratory commodities, and facility-level personnel and overhead. Certain groups under four-criteria differentiation require more intensive inputs. Community-based ART costs were included in the DCMs. We take into account underlying uncertainty in the projected numbers on ART and unit costs.

Results: Total five-year facility-based ART costs for undifferentiated care are estimated to be US$23.33 billion (95% confidence interval [CI]: $23.3–$23.5 billion). An estimated 17.5% (95% CI: 17.4%–17.7%) and 16.8% (95% CI: 16.7%–17.0%) could be saved from 2016 to 2020 from implementing the age and stability DCM and four-criteria DCM, respectively, with annual cost savings increasing over time. DCMs decrease the full-time equivalent (FTE) health workforce requirements for ART. An estimated 46.4% (95% CI: 46.1%–46.7%) fewer FTE health workers are needed in 2020 for the age and stability DCM compared with undifferentiated care.

Conclusions: Adopting DCMs can result in significant efficiency gains in terms of reduced costs and health workforce needs, even with the costs of scaling up community-based ART support under DCMs. Efficiency gains remained flat with increased differentiation. More evidence is needed on how to translate analyzed efficiency gains into implemented cost reductions at the facility level.

Getting it right when budgets are tight: Using optimal expansion pathways to prioritize responses to concentrated and mixed HIV epidemics

Background

Prioritizing investments across health interventions is complicated by the nonlinear relationship between intervention coverage and epidemiological outcomes. It can be difficult for countries to know which interventions to prioritize for greatest epidemiological impact, particularly when budgets are uncertain.

Methods

We examined four case studies of HIV epidemics in diverse settings, each with different characteristics. These case studies were based on public data available for Belarus, Peru, Togo, and Myanmar. The Optima HIV model and software package was used to estimate the optimal distribution of resources across interventions associated with a range of budget envelopes. We constructed “investment staircases”, a useful tool for understanding investment priorities. These were used to estimate the best attainable cost-effectiveness of the response at each investment level.

Findings

We find that when budgets are very limited, the optimal HIV response consists of a smaller number of ‘core’ interventions. As budgets increase, those core interventions should first be scaled up, and then new interventions introduced. We estimate that the cost-effectiveness of HIV programming decreases as investment levels increase, but that the overall cost-effectiveness remains below GDP per capita.

Significance

It is important for HIV programming to respond effectively to the overall level of funding availability. The analytic tools presented here can help to guide program planners understand the most cost-effective HIV responses and plan for an uncertain future.

The value of point-of-care CD4+ and laboratory viral load in tailoring antiretroviral therapy monitoring strategies to resource limitations

OBJECTIVE

To examine the clinical and economic value of point-of-care CD4 (POC-CD4) or viral load monitoring compared with current practices in Mozambique, a country representative of the diverse resource limitations encountered by HIV treatment programs in sub-Saharan Africa.

DESIGN/METHODS

We use the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications-International model to examine the clinical impact, cost (2014 US$), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [$/year of life saved (YLS)] of ART monitoring strategies in Mozambique. We compare: monitoring for clinical disease progression [clinical ART monitoring strategy (CLIN)] vs. annual POC-CD4 in rural settings without laboratory services and biannual laboratory CD4 (LAB-CD4), biannual POC-CD4, and annual viral load in urban settings with laboratory services. We examine the impact of a range of values in sensitivity analyses, using Mozambique's 2014 per capita gross domestic product ($620) as a benchmark cost-effectiveness threshold.

RESULTS

In rural settings, annual POC-CD4 compared to CLIN improves life expectancy by 2.8 years, reduces time on failed ART by 0.6 years, and yields an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $480/YLS. In urban settings, biannual POC-CD4 is more expensive and less effective than viral load. Compared to biannual LAB-CD4, viral load improves life expectancy by 0.6 years, reduces time on failed ART by 1.0 year, and is cost-effective ($440/YLS).

CONCLUSION

In rural settings, annual POC-CD4 improves clinical outcomes and is cost-effective compared to CLIN. In urban settings, viral load has the greatest clinical benefit and is cost-effective compared to biannual POC-CD4 or LAB-CD4. Tailoring ART monitoring strategies to specific settings with different available resources can improve clinical outcomes while remaining economically efficient.

Global burden of disease of HIV-associated cryptococcal meningitis: an updated analysis

BACKGROUND

Cryptococcus is the most common cause of meningitis in adults living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. Global burden estimates are crucial to guide prevention strategies and to determine treatment needs, and we aimed to provide an updated estimate of global incidence of HIV-associated cryptococcal disease.

METHODS

We used 2014 Joint UN Programme on HIV and AIDS estimates of adults (aged >15 years) with HIV and antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage. Estimates of CD4 less than 100 cells per μL, virological failure incidence, and loss to follow-up were from published multinational cohorts in low-income and middle-income countries. We calculated those at risk for cryptococcal infection, specifically those with CD4 less than 100 cells/μL not on ART, and those with CD4 less than 100 cells per μL on ART but lost to follow-up or with virological failure. Cryptococcal antigenaemia prevalence by country was derived from 46 studies globally. Based on cryptococcal antigenaemia prevalence in each country and region, we estimated the annual numbers of people who are developing and dying from cryptococcal meningitis.

FINDINGS

We estimated an average global cryptococcal antigenaemia prevalence of 6·0% (95% CI 5·8-6·2) among people with a CD4 cell count of less than 100 cells per μL, with 278 000 (95% CI 195 500-340 600) people positive for cryptococcal antigen globally and 223 100 (95% CI 150 600-282 400) incident cases of cryptococcal meningitis globally in 2014. Sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 73% of the estimated cryptococcal meningitis cases in 2014 (162 500 cases [95% CI 113 600-193 900]). Annual global deaths from cryptococcal meningitis were estimated at 181 100 (95% CI 119 400-234 300), with 135 900 (75%; [95% CI 93 900-163 900]) deaths in sub-Saharan Africa. Globally, cryptococcal meningitis was responsible for 15% of AIDS-related deaths (95% CI 10-19).

INTERPRETATION

Our analysis highlights the substantial ongoing burden of HIV-associated cryptococcal disease, primarily in sub-Saharan Africa. Cryptococcal meningitis is a metric of HIV treatment programme failure; timely HIV testing and rapid linkage to care remain an urgent priority.

FUNDING

None.

The challenge of middle-income countries to development assistance for health: recipients, funders, both or neither?

Recent developments have transformed the role and characteristics of middle-income countries (MICs). Many stakeholders now question the appropriate role of MICs in the system of development assistance for health (DAH), and key funders have already recast their approach to these countries. The pressing question is whether MICs should be recipients, funders, both or neither. The answer has deep implications for individual countries and their citizens, and for the DAH system as a whole. We clarify the fundamental issues involved and emphasise a special feature of many MICs: mid-level gross national income per capita (GNIpc) combined with substantial health needs and large inequalities. We discuss the trade-off between concerns for capacity and need, and illustrate a capacity-based approach to setting the level of a GNIpc eligibility threshold. We also discuss how needs-based exceptions and incentive-preserving instruments can complement such a threshold. Against this background, we outline options for the future roles of MICs in various circumstances. We conclude that major players in the DAH system have reason to reconsider the criteria for allocating DAH among countries and the norms for which countries should contribute and how much.

Economic Evaluation in Ethiopian Healthcare Sector Decision Making: Perception, Practice and Barriers

BACKGROUND

Globally, economic evaluation (EE) is increasingly being considered as a critical tool for allocating scarce healthcare resources. However, such considerations are less documented in low-income countries, such as in Ethiopia. In particular, to date there has been no assessment conducted to evaluate the perception and practice of and barriers to health EE.

OBJECTIVE

This paper assesses the use and perceptions of EE in healthcare decision-making processes in Ethiopia.

METHODS

In-depth interview sessions with decision makers/healthcare managers and program coordinators across six regional health bureaus were conducted. A qualitative analysis approach was conducted on three thematic areas.

RESULTS

A total of 57 decision makers/healthcare managers were interviewed from all tiers of the health sector in Ethiopia, ranging from the Federal Ministry of Health down to the lower levels of the health facility pyramid. At the high-level healthcare decision-making tier, only 56 % of those interviewed showed a good understanding of EE when explaining in terms of cost and consequences of alternative courses of action and value for money. From the specific program perspective, 50 % of the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV/AIDS program coordinators indicated the relevance of EE to program planning and decision making. These respondents reported a limited application of costing studies on the HIV/AIDS prevention and control program, which were most commonly used during annual planning and budgeting.

CONCLUSION

The study uncovered three important barriers to growth of EE in Ethiopia: a lack of awareness, a lack of expertise and skill, and the traditional decision-making culture.

Alternative financing mechanisms for ART programs in health facilities in Uganda: a mixed-methods approach

Background

Sub-Saharan Africa is heavily dependent on global health initiatives (GHIs) for funding antiretroviral therapy (ART) scale-up. There are indications that global investments for ART scale-up are flattening. It is unclear what new funding channels can bridge the funding gap for ART service delivery. Many previous studies have focused on domestic government spending and international funding especially from GHIs. The objective of this study was to identify the funding strategies adopted by health facilities in Uganda to sustain ART programs between 2004 and 2014 and to explore variations in financing mechanisms by ownership of health facility.

Methods

A mixed-methods approach was employed. A survey of health facilities (N = 195) across Uganda which commenced ART delivery between 2004 and 2009 was conducted. Six health facilities were purposively selected for in-depth examination. Semi-structured interviews (N = 18) were conducted with ART Clinic managers (three from each of the six health facilities). Statistical analyses were performed in STATA (Version 12.0) and qualitative data were analyzed by coding and thematic analysis.

Results

Multiple funding sources for ART programs were common with 140 (72%) of the health facilities indicating at least two concurrent grants supporting ART service delivery between 2009 and 2014. Private philanthropic aid emerged as an important source of supplemental funding for ART service delivery. ART financing strategies were differentiated by ownership of health facility. Private not-for-profit providers were more externally-focused (multiple grants, philanthropic aid). For-profit providers were more client-oriented (fee-for-service, insurance schemes). Public facilities sought additional funding streams not dissimilar to other health facility ownership-types.

Conclusion

Over the 10-year study period, health facilities in Uganda diversified funding sources for ART service delivery. The identified alternative funding mechanisms could reduce dependence on GHI funding and increase local ownership of HIV programs. Further research evaluating the potential contribution of the identified alternative financing mechanisms in bridging the global HIV funding gap is recommended.

Decentralising and integrating HIV services in community-based health systems: a qualitative study of perceptions at macro, meso and micro levels of the health system

INTRODUCTION

HIV services at the community level in Kenya are currently delivered largely through vertical programmes. The funding for these programmes is declining at the same time as the tasks of delivering HIV services are being shifted to the community. While integrating HIV into existing community health services creates a platform for increasing coverage, normalising HIV and making services more sustainable in high-prevalence settings, little is known about the feasibility of moving to a more integrated approach or about how acceptable such a move would be to the affected parties.

METHODS

We used qualitative methods to explore perceptions of integrating HIV services in two counties in Kenya, interviewing national and county policymakers, county-level implementers and community-level actors. Data were recorded digitally, translated, transcribed and coded in NVivo10 prior to a framework analysis.

RESULTS

We found that a range of HIV-related roles such as counselling, testing, linkage, adherence support and home-based care were already being performed in the community in an ad hoc manner. However, respondents expressed a desire for a more coordinated approach and for decentralising the integration of HIV services to the community level as parallel programming had resulted in gaps in HIV service and planning. In particular, integrating home-based testing and counselling within government community health structures was considered timely.

CONCLUSIONS

Integration can normalise HIV testing in Kenyan communities, integrate lay counsellors into the health system and address community desires for a household-led approach.

PrEP as a feature in the optimal landscape of combination HIV prevention in sub-Saharan Africa

Introduction

The new WHO guidelines recommend offering pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to people who are at substantial risk of HIV infection. However, where PrEP should be prioritised, and for which population groups, remains an open question. The HIV landscape in sub-Saharan Africa features limited prevention resources, multiple options for achieving cost saving, and epidemic heterogeneity. This paper examines what role PrEP should play in optimal prevention in this complex and dynamic landscape.

Methods

We use a model that was previously developed to capture subnational HIV transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. With this model, we can consider how prevention funds could be distributed across and within countries throughout sub-Saharan Africa to enable optimal HIV prevention (that is, avert the greatest number of infections for the lowest cost). Here, we focus on PrEP to elucidate where, and to whom, it would optimally be offered in portfolios of interventions (alongside voluntary medical male circumcision, treatment as prevention, and behaviour change communication). Over a range of continental expenditure levels, we use our model to explore prevention patterns that incorporate PrEP, exclude PrEP, or implement PrEP according to a fixed incidence threshold.

Results

At low-to-moderate levels of total prevention expenditure, we find that the optimal intervention portfolios would include PrEP in only a few regions and primarily for female sex workers (FSW). Prioritisation of PrEP would expand with increasing total expenditure, such that the optimal prevention portfolios would offer PrEP in more subnational regions and increasingly for men who have sex with men (MSM) and the lower incidence general population. The marginal benefit of including PrEP among the available interventions increases with overall expenditure by up to 14% (relative to excluding PrEP). The minimum baseline incidence for the optimal offer of PrEP declines for all population groups as expenditure increases. We find that using a fixed incidence benchmark to guide PrEP decisions would incur considerable losses in impact (up to 7%) compared with an approach that uses PrEP more flexibly in light of prevailing budget conditions.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that, for an optimal distribution of prevention resources, choices of whether to implement PrEP in subnational regions should depend on the scope for impact of other possible interventions, local incidence in population groups, and total resources available. If prevention funding were to become restricted in the future, it may be suboptimal to use PrEP according to a fixed incidence benchmark, and other prevention modalities may be more cost-effective. In contrast, expansions in funding could permit PrEP to be used to its full potential in epidemiologically driven prevention portfolios and thereby enable a more cost-effective HIV response across Africa.

Financing the HIV response in sub-Saharan Africa from domestic sources: Moving beyond a normative approach

Despite optimism about the end of AIDS, the HIV response requires sustained financing into the future. Given flat-lining international aid, countries' willingness and ability to shoulder this responsibility will be central to access to HIV care. This paper examines the potential to expand public HIV financing, and the extent to which governments have been utilising these options. We develop and compare a normative and empirical approach. First, with data from the 14 most HIV-affected countries in sub-Saharan Africa, we estimate the potential increase in public HIV financing from economic growth, increased general revenue generation, greater health and HIV prioritisation, as well as from more unconventional and innovative sources, including borrowing, health-earmarked resources, efficiency gains, and complementary non-HIV investments. We then adopt a novel empirical approach to explore which options are most likely to translate into tangible public financing, based on cross-sectional econometric analyses of 92 low and middle-income country governments' most recent HIV expenditure between 2008 and 2012. If all fiscal sources were simultaneously leveraged in the next five years, public HIV spending in these 14 countries could increase from US$3.04 to US$10.84 billion per year. This could cover resource requirements in South Africa, Botswana, Namibia, Kenya, Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Swaziland, but not even half the requirements in the remaining countries. Our empirical results suggest that, in reality, even less fiscal space could be created (a reduction by over half) and only from more conventional sources. International financing may also crowd in public financing. Most HIV-affected lower-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa will not be able to generate sufficient public resources for HIV in the medium-term, even if they take very bold measures. Considerable international financing will be required for years to come. HIV funders will need to engage with broader health and development financing to improve government revenue-raising and efficiencies.

Optimum resource allocation to reduce HIV incidence across sub-Saharan Africa: a mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND

Advances in HIV prevention methods offer promise to accelerate declines in incidence, but how these methods can be deployed to have the best effect on the heterogeneous landscape and drivers of the pandemic remains unclear. We postulated that use of epidemic heterogeneity to inform the allocation of resources for combination HIV prevention could enhance the impact of HIV funding across sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

We developed a compartmental mathematical model of HIV transmission and disease progression by risk group to subnational resolution in 18 countries, capturing 80% of the adult HIV burden in sub-Saharan Africa. Adults aged 15-49 years were grouped by risk of HIV acquisition and transmission, and those older than 50 years were assumed to have negligible risk. For each top-level administrative division, we calibrated the model to historical data for HIV prevalence, sexual behaviours, treatment scale-up, and demographics. We then evaluated four strategies for allocation of prevention funding over a 15 year period from 2016 to 2030, which exploited epidemic differences between subnational regions to varying degrees.

FINDINGS

For a $US20 billion representative expenditure over the 15 year period, scale-up of prevention along present funding channels could avert 5·3 million infections relative to no scale-up. Prioritisation of key populations could avert 3·7 million more infections than present funding channels, and additional prioritisation by within-country geography could avert 400 000 more infections. Removal of national constraints could avert a further 600 000 infections. Risk prioritisation has greater marginal impact than geographical prioritisation across multiple expenditure levels. However, targeting by both risk and geography is best for total impact and could achieve gains of up to three times more than present channels. A shift from the present pattern to the optimum pattern would rebalance resources towards more cost-effective interventions and emerging epidemics.

INTERPRETATION

If domestic and international funders were to align strategically to build an aggregate funding pattern that is guided by the epidemiology of HIV, and particularly by the emerging understanding of local dynamics and epidemic drivers, more cost-effective and impactful HIV prevention investments could be achieved across sub-Saharan Africa.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Can the Heterosexual HIV Epidemic be Eliminated in South Africa Using Combination Prevention? A Modeling Analysis

Little is known about how combining efficacious interventions for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention could lead to HIV elimination. We used an agent-based simulation model, the HIV calibrated dynamic model, to assess the potential for HIV elimination in South Africa. We examined several scenarios (from continuation of the current status quo to perfect achievement of targets) with differing combinations of male condom use, adult male circumcision, HIV testing, and early antiretroviral therapy (ART). We varied numerous parameters, including the proportion of adult males circumcised, the frequency of condom use during sex acts, acceptance of HIV testing, linkage to health care, criteria for ART initiation, ART viral suppression rates, and loss to follow-up. Maintaining current levels of combination prevention would lead to increasing HIV incidence and prevalence in South Africa, while the perfect combination scenario was projected to eliminate HIV on a 50-year time scale from 2013 to 2063. Perfecting testing and treatment, without changing condom use or circumcision rates, resulted in an 89% reduction in HIV incidence but not elimination. Universal adult male circumcision alone resulted in a 21% incidence reduction within 20 years. Substantial decreases in HIV incidence are possible from sufficient uptake of both primary prevention and ART, but with continuation of the status quo, HIV elimination in South Africa is unlikely within a 50-year time scale.

Aspirations and realities in a North-South partnership for health promotion: lessons from a program to promote safe male circumcision in Botswana

BACKGROUND

International donors support the partnership between the Government of Botswana and two international organisations: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Africa Comprehensive HIV/AIDS Partnership to implement Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision with the target of circumcising 80 % of HIV negative men in 5 years. Botswana Government had started integration of the program into its health system when international partners brought in the Models for Optimizing Volume and Efficiency to strengthen delivery of the service and push the target. The objective of this paper is to use a systems model to establish how the functioning of the partnership on Safe Male Circumcision in Botswana contributed to the outcome.

METHODS

Data were collected using observations, focus group discussions and interviews. Thirty participants representing all three partners were observed in a 3-day meeting; followed by three rounds of in-depth interviews with five selected leading officers over 2 years and three focus group discussions.

RESULTS

Financial resources, "ownership" and the target influence the success or failure of partnerships. A combination of inputs by partners brought progress towards achieving set program goals. Although there were tensions between partners, they were working together in strategising to address some challenges of the partnership and implementation. Pressure to meet the expectations of the international donors caused tension and challenges between the in-country partners to the extent of Development Partners retreating and not pursuing the mission further.

CONCLUSION

Target achievement, the link between financial contribution and ownership expectations caused antagonistic outcome. The paper contributes enlightenment that the functioning of the visible in-country partnership is significantly influenced by the less visible global context such as the target setters and donors.

Age-targeted HIV treatment and primary prevention as a 'ring fence' to efficiently interrupt the age patterns of transmission in generalized epidemic settings in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Generalized HIV epidemics propagate to future generations according to the age patterns of transmission. We hypothesized that future generations could be protected from infection using age-targeted prevention, analogous to the ring-fencing strategies used to control the spread of smallpox.

METHODS

We modeled age-targeted or cohort-targeted outreach with HIV treatment and/or prevention using EMOD-HIV v0·8, an individual-based network model of HIV transmission in South Africa.

RESULTS

Targeting ages 20 to 30 with intensified outreach, linkage, and eligibility for antiretroviral therapy (ART) averted 45% as many infections as universal outreach for approximately one-fifth the cost beyond existing HIV services. Though cost-effective, targeting failed to eliminate all infections to those under 20 due to vertical and inter-generational transmission. Cost-effectiveness of optimal prevention strategies included US$6238 per infection averted targeting ages 10-30, US$5031 targeting 20-30, US$4279 targeting 22-27, and US$3967 targeting 25-27, compared to US$10 812 for full-population test-and-treat. Minimizing burden (disability-adjusted life years [DALYs]) rather than infections resulted in older target age ranges because older adults were more likely to receive a direct health benefit from treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Age-targeted treatment for HIV prevention is unlikely to eliminate HIV epidemics, but is an efficient strategy for reducing new infections in generalized epidemics settings.