Cost-effectiveness of one-year adjuvant trastuzumab therapy in treatment for early-stage breast cancer patients with HER2+ in Vietnam

BACKGROUND

In Vietnam, trastuzumab is included in social health insurance's benefits package with a reimbursement rate of 60%, but policymakers have been concerned about its cost-effectiveness. The research aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of one-year adjuvant trastuzumab therapy for early-stage breast cancer patients with human epidermal growth receptor 2 (HER2+) from a societal perspective.

METHOD

A Markov model was developed and validated to estimate the lifetime cost and effectiveness (using life year and quality-adjusted life year) of one-year adjuvant trastuzumab therapy compared to chemotherapy (using paclitaxel) alone. Treatment efficacy and transition probabilities were estimated based on published trials (i.e., N9831, NSABP B-31, HERA, and BCIRG 006). Local cost and utility data were employed to capture the Vietnam context. One-way sensitivity analysis, probabilistic sensitivity analysis, threshold, and scenario analysis were also performed.

RESULTS

One-year adjuvant trastuzumab therapy combined with chemotherapy compared to chemotherapy alone yielded an additional cost of 888,453,971VND (39,062 US$) with an additional 3.09 LYs and 1.61 QALYs, resulting in an ICER of 287,390,682 VND (12,635 US$) per LY gained, or 519,616,972 VND (22,845 US$) per QALY gained. The ICER exceeds the cost-effective threshold of 1- and 3-time GDP per capita by 6.3 and 2.1 times. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis shows similar results. According to one-way sensitivity analysis, ICERs were driven mainly by transition probabilities and trastuzumab price. One-year adjuvant trastuzumab therapy would be cost-effective at the 3-time GDP per capita threshold if the cost of Herceptin 150mg and 450mg vials were reduced by 56% and 54%, correspondingly.

CONCLUSION

In Vietnam, one-year adjuvant trastuzumab therapy for early-stage breast cancer with HER2+ is not cost-effective. The research provided reliable and updated evidence to support policymakers in revising the health insurance benefit package. The policymakers should consider the options to reduce the cost of trastuzumab (e.g., regarding the use of trastuzumab biosimilars, price negotiation options, and options of optimizing the use of Herceptin vials among concurrent hospitalized breast cancer patients).

Willingness to Pay for Colorectal Cancer Screening in Vietnam: Policy Implications From a Contingent Valuation Survey

OBJECTIVES

To determine the willingness to pay (WTP) for the fecal occult blood test (FOBT) and colonoscopy among the general population to provide evidence for policymakers in deciding whether to include them in the social health insurance benefit package and facilitate the pricing practice.

METHODS

The conventional double-bounded dichotomous choice contingent valuation survey was used to determine the WTP. We recruited 402 people aged 50 to 75 who came to 3 primary healthcare clinics in Hanoi from February 2019 to April 2019. The questionnaire was built based on the pilot research with a 5-bid design, that is, the starting bids of US $4.05, 6.75, 13.51, 21.01, and 36.47 for FOBT and US $21.01, 40.52, 54.03, 81.04, and 182.34 for colonoscopy. The data analysis was performed using the DCchoice package version 3.5.1. Cost in Vietnam dong is converted to 2022 US $using purchasing power parity method.

RESULTS

A total of 7.2% of participants refused to pay for FOBT and colonoscopy. Analysis of the univariate model showed that the mean and median WTP for FOBT were US $62.08 and 45.28. The mean and median WTP for colonoscopy were US $101.61 and 78.61. When adjusting the WTP value by related factors, the mean and median WTP estimates for FOBT were almost the same. The choice of WTP for FOBT and colonoscopy was statistically associated with several variables.

CONCLUSIONS

This study supports the inclusion of FOBT and colonoscopy into the social health insurance benefits package. This study also supports policymakers in pricing practice to optimize the uptake rate of colorectal cancer screening tests.

Outcomes in Pregnant Adolescent Patients Infected With SARS-CoV-2

BACKGROUND

Pregnant patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are at risk for adverse pregnancy outcomes. Although clinical outcomes for pregnant adults have been reported, the impact of COVID-19 on adolescents is lacking. We sought to evaluate obstetric outcomes of pregnant adolescents infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and compare them with uninfected adolescent controls.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study of pregnant adolescents (14-19 years) who had a positive polymerase chain reaction test for SARS-CoV-2 from April 2020 to December 2020 at Inova Health System Hospitals. Controls included pregnant adolescents who tested negative. The primary outcome was a composite of preeclampsia, preterm delivery, cesarean delivery, fetal growth restriction and stillbirth. Secondary outcomes included maternal and neonatal morbidity.

RESULTS

Forty-eight pregnant adolescents who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 were compared with 394 controls. Infected adolescents were more likely to be Hispanic (91.67% vs. 12.18%; risk ratio [RR] 41.85 [95% CI: 15.43-113.5]) and uninsured (50% vs. 7.87%; RR 7.04 [95% CI: 4.31-11.49]. Nearly 80% of infected adolescents remained asymptomatic, whereas one-third of symptomatic adolescents progressed to severe or critical COVID-19. The primary composite outcome was more prevalent in infected adolescents compared with noninfected controls (41.67% vs. 25.38%; adjusted RR 2.65 [95% CI: 1.19-5.93]). Maternal morbidity was more prevalent in infected adolescents (6.25% vs. 0.76%; adjusted RR 9.53 [95% CI: 3.83-23.71]). Primary and secondary maternal outcomes were more prevalent in younger adolescents and those with higher severity of COVID-19. Maternal SARS-CoV-2 infection was not associated with neonatal morbidity.

CONCLUSIONS

Pregnant adolescents infected with SARS-CoV-2 are more likely to have adverse obstetric outcomes and maternal morbidity compared with noninfected pregnant adolescents.

E-Cigarette Use among University Students from One University in Hanoi, Vietnam, and Associated Factors

OBJECTIVE

Describe the use of e-cigarettes and factors associated with e-cigarette use among university students from one university in Vietnam in 2021.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was conducted with a total of 554 full-time undergraduate students recruiting for the study. Data was collected using a structured self-administered questionnaire. A logistic regression analysis was performed to identify factors with significant association with students' use of e-cigarettes.

RESULTS

The study revealed that 13.2% of students were current users. Students who had e-cigarette smokers in the family (aOR=6.1, 95% CI: 2.5-15.4; p<0.001), used traditional cigarettes (aOR=23.6, 95% CI: 10.5-53.4; p<0.001), consumed alcohol (aOR=5, 95%CI: 1.6 - 15.9; p<0.01), were exposed to e-cigarette advertising (aOR=2.6; 95%CI: 1.1-5.9; p<0.01), and  had inadequate knowledge about e-cigarettes (aOR=2.2; 95%CI: 1-4.7; p<0.01) were more likely to use e-cigarettes.

CONCLUSION

This study updates the status of e-cigarette use among students in one university in Vietnam, thereby suggesting strategies to reduce the use of e-cigarettes among university students.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017.

METHODS

The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised.

FINDINGS

At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5-74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9-19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7-8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5-23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20-8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0-8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0-24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1-33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5-4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2-15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9-59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8-148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2-40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2-36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990-neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases-were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data.

METHODS

We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting.

FINDINGS

Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]).

INTERPRETATION

Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017.

METHODS

The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised.

FINDINGS

At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5-74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9-19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7-8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5-23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20-8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0-8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0-24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1-33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5-4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2-15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9-59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8-148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2-40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2-36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990-neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases-were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk-outcome associations.

METHODS

We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.

FINDINGS

In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3-35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14-1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6-62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3-50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39-11·5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83-7·37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23-8·23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99-6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36-1·51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3-6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low.

INTERPRETATION

By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data.

METHODS

We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting.

FINDINGS

Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]).

INTERPRETATION

Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Child Desire Among Men and Women Living with HIV/AIDS in the Traditional Culture of Vietnam

In various settings, heterogeneity in fertility rates among HIV-affected couples highlights the importance of understanding contextual factors to inform program planning and implementation. We interviewed 1016 patients with HIV/AIDS at seven clinics in Vietnam to assess their desire to have a(nother) child and willingness to pay (WTP) for prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT) services. One-fifth of participants reported their desire for a(another) child and this was slightly higher among men than women. Factors associated with the desire to have a(nother) child of HIV/AIDS patients included (1) not yet have a child or a son, (2) provincial and district-level service, (3) income per capita, (4) marital status and (5) history of drug injection. The average WTP for PMTCT service was US $179 (95% CI 161-197). The study highlights the need for interventions on social, cultural barriers, improved accessibility and outcomes of counseling, and better care and treatment services for couples and child affected by HIV/AIDS.

Physical activity among HIV-positive patients receiving antiretroviral therapy in Hanoi and Nam Dinh, Vietnam: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has facilitated the transition of HIV infection into a chronic disease, where adherence to medications is required along with keeping a healthy lifestyle. Therefore, an increase in physical activity has been recommended for patients with HIV in order to maintain their health status. This study looked to determine the physical activity level and its associated factors among patients with HIV receiving ART treatment.

SETTINGS

Eight outpatient clinic sites across different levels of the health systems in both rural and urban settings in Hanoi and Nam Dinh, Vietnam.

STUDY DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS

A cross-sectional study was performed among 1133 patients with HIV receiving ART treatment from January to August 2013.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Physical activity level was measured using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ). Socioeconomic, health-related quality of life, ART adherence and ART-related characteristics were self-reported.

RESULTS

16% of participants were inactive, and 68% were reported active via health-enhancing physical activity. Rural participants reported a higher level of physical activity compared with urban participants. Participants having a longer duration of ART were less likely to be physically active. Participants who were female and self-employed, who had higher CD4 cell count, higherEuroQol - 5 dimensions - 5levels (EQ-5D-5L) index/EQ-Visual Analogue Scale, and shared their health status with their peers were more likely to have a higher IPAQ score or be physically active. A lower IPAQ score was associated with participants living in urban areas and being at the symptomatic stage. Participants having poor adherence and longer duration of ART were more likely to be physically inactive.

CONCLUSION

The majority of participants who received ART were physically active. There is a need for interventions to promote physical activity among patients with HIV in urban areas and in the later ART treatment phases. Other potential interventions to increase the level of physical activity include peer support and job guidance.

A ReaxFF force field for sodium intrusion in graphitic cathodes

A ReaxFF force field for sodium intrusion in graphitic carbon.

Establishment of a clinically correlated human pericardial fluid bank: evaluation of intrapericardial diagnostic potential

The development of a clinically correlated human pericardial fluid bank and database is described. A unique feature of this registry is the availability of a large number of pericardial fluid samples for testing with respect to multiple factors and for correlation with angiographic findings and clinical syndromes expressed by the patients. The collection of data at the present time comprises frozen pericardial fluid samples obtained from patients who have undergone cardiac surgery; and historical, clinical, and laboratory data obtained from the patient records. Nearly 400 samples have been stored and analyzed thus far, with sample entry continuing. This registry is designed to evaluate the local factors that play a role in mediating or reflecting myocardial or coronary responses. Pathophysiologic processes of particular interest include restenosis, plaque ruptures, and angiogenesis. Study of the pericardial fluid bank should lead to enhanced understanding of molecular mechanisms, as well as to the explanation for the reasons underlying interpatient variability in these processes. It is further anticipated that this information might provide a foundation for the diagnostic use of pericardial fluid to individualize therapies targeting angiogenesis or plaque physiology.