Seasonality reversal of temperature attributable mortality projections due to previously unobserved extreme heat in Europe

Spatial Bayesian distributed lag non-linear models (SB-DLNM) for small-area exposure-lag-response epidemiological modelling

BACKGROUND

Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) are the reference framework for modelling lagged non-linear associations. They are usually used in large-scale multi-location studies. Attempts to study these associations in small areas either did not include the lagged non-linear effects, did not allow for geographically-varying risks or downscaled risks from larger spatial units through socioeconomic and physical meta-predictors when the estimation of the risks was not feasible due to low statistical power.

METHODS

Here we proposed spatial Bayesian DLNMs (SB-DLNMs) as a new framework for the estimation of reliable small-area lagged non-linear associations, and demonstrated the methodology for the case study of the temperature-mortality relationship in the 73 neighbourhoods of the city of Barcelona. We generalized location-independent DLNMs to the Bayesian framework (B-DLNMs), and extended them to SB-DLNMs by incorporating spatial models in a single-stage approach that accounts for the spatial dependence between risks.

RESULTS

The results of the case study highlighted the benefits of incorporating the spatial component for small-area analysis. Estimates obtained from independent B-DLNMs were unstable and unreliable, particularly in neighbourhoods with very low numbers of deaths. SB-DLNMs addressed these instabilities by incorporating spatial dependencies, resulting in more plausible and coherent estimates and revealing hidden spatial patterns. In addition, the Bayesian framework enriches the range of estimates and tests that can be used in both large- and small-area studies.

CONCLUSIONS

SB-DLNMs account for spatial structures in the risk associations across small areas. By modelling spatial differences, SB-DLNMs facilitate the direct estimation of non-linear exposure-response lagged associations at the small-area level, even in areas with as few as 19 deaths. The manuscript includes an illustrative code to reproduce the results, and to facilitate the implementation of other case studies by other researchers.

A systematic review of ambient heat and sleep in a warming climate

Climate change is elevating nighttime and daytime temperatures worldwide, affecting a broad continuum of behavioral and health outcomes. Disturbed sleep is a plausible pathway linking rising ambient temperatures with several observed adverse human responses shown to increase during hot weather. This systematic review aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the literature investigating the relationship between ambient temperature and valid sleep outcomes measured in real-world settings, globally. We show that higher outdoor or indoor temperatures are generally associated with degraded sleep quality and quantity worldwide. The negative effect of heat persists across sleep measures, and is stronger during the hottest months and days, in vulnerable populations, and the warmest regions. Although we identify opportunities to strengthen the state of the science, limited evidence of fast sleep adaptation to heat suggests rising temperatures induced by climate change and urbanization pose a planetary threat to human sleep, and therefore health, performance, and wellbeing.

Countrywide analysis of heat- and cold-related mortality trends in the Czech Republic: growing inequalities under recent climate warming

BACKGROUND

Only little is known about trends in temperature-mortality associations among the most vulnerable subgroups, especially in the areas of central and eastern Europe, which are considered major climatic hotspots in terms of heatwave exposure. Thus, we aimed to assess trends in temperature-related mortality in the Czech Republic by sex, age and cause of death, and to quantify the temporal evolution of possible inequalities.

METHODS

We collected daily time series of all-cause (1987-2019) and cause-specific (1994-2019) mortality by sex and age category, and population-weighted daily mean 2-metre temperatures for each region of the Czech Republic. We applied a quasi-Poisson regression model to estimate the trends in region-specific temperature-mortality associations, with distributed lag non-linear models and multivariate random-effects meta-analysis to derive average associations across the country. We then calculated mortality attributable to non-optimal temperatures and implemented the indicator of sex- and age-dependent inequalities.

RESULTS

We observed a similar risk of mortality due to cold temperatures for men and women. Conversely, for warm temperatures, a higher risk was observed for women. Results by age showed a clear pattern of increasing risk due to non-optimum temperatures with increasing age category. The relative risk (RR) related to cold was considerably attenuated in most of the studied subgroups during the study period, whereas an increase in the RR associated with heat was seen in the overall population, in women, in the age category 90+ years and with respect to respiratory causes. Moreover, underlying sex- and age-dependent inequalities experienced substantial growth.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest ongoing adaptation to cold temperatures. Mal/adaptation to hot temperatures occurred unequally among population subgroups and resulted in growing inequalities between the sexes and among age categories.

The effect of temporal data aggregation to assess the impact of changing temperatures in Europe: an epidemiological modelling study

Background

Daily time-series regression models are commonly used to estimate the lagged nonlinear relation between temperature and mortality. A major impediment to this type of analysis is the restricted access to daily health records. The use of weekly and monthly data represents a possible solution unexplored to date.

Methods

We temporally aggregated daily temperatures and mortality records from 147 contiguous regions in 16 European countries, representing their entire population of over 400 million people. We estimated temperature-lag-mortality relationships by using standard time-series quasi-Poisson regression models applied to daily data, and compared the results with those obtained with different degrees of temporal aggregation.

Findings

We observed progressively larger differences in the epidemiological estimates with the degree of temporal data aggregation. The daily data model estimated an annual cold and heat-related mortality of 290,104 (213,745-359,636) and 39,434 (30,782-47,084) deaths, respectively, and the weekly model underestimated these numbers by 8.56% and 21.56%. Importantly, differences were systematically smaller during extreme cold and heat periods, such as the summer of 2003, with an underestimation of only 4.62% in the weekly data model. We applied this framework to infer that the heat-related mortality burden during the year 2022 in Europe may have exceeded the 70,000 deaths.

Interpretation

The present work represents a first reference study validating the use of weekly time series as an approximation to the short-term effects of cold and heat on human mortality. This approach can be adopted to complement access-restricted data networks, and facilitate data access for research, translation and policy-making.

Funding

The study was supported by the ERC Consolidator Grant EARLY-ADAPT (https://www.early-adapt.eu/), and the ERC Proof-of-Concept Grants HHS-EWS and FORECAST-AIR.

Ambient temperature and seasonal variation in inpatient mortality from respiratory diseases: a retrospective observational study

Background

The seasonal fluctuation in mortality and hospital admissions from respiratory diseases, with a winter peak and a summer trough, is widely recognized in extratropical countries. However, little is known about the seasonality of inpatient mortality and the role of ambient temperature remains uncertain. We aimed to analyse the association between ambient temperature and in-hospital mortality from respiratory diseases in the provinces of Madrid and Barcelona, Spain.

Methods

We used data on daily hospitalisations, weather (ie, temperature and relative humidity) and air pollutants (ie, PM2.5, PM10, NO2 and O3) for the Spanish provinces of Madrid and Barcelona during 2006-2019. We applied a daily time-series quasi-Poisson regression in combination with distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) to assess, on the one hand, the seasonal variation in fatal hospitalisations and the contribution of ambient temperature, and on the other hand, the day-to-day association between temperature and fatal hospital admissions. The analyses were stratified by sex, age and primary diagnostic of hospitalisation.

Findings

The study analysed 1 710 012 emergency hospital admissions for respiratory diseases (mean [SD] age, 60.4 [31.0] years; 44.2% women), from which 103 845 resulted in in-hospital death (81.4 [12.3] years; 45.1%). We found a strong seasonal fluctuation in in-hospital mortality from respiratory diseases. While hospital admissions were higher during the cold season, the maximum incidence of inpatient mortality was during the summer and was strongly related to high temperatures. When analysing the day-to-day association between temperature and in-hospital mortality, we only found an effect for high temperatures. The relative risk (RR) of fatal hospitalisation at the 99th percentile of the distribution of daily temperatures vs the minimum mortality temperature (MMT) was 1.395 (95% eCI: 1.211-1.606) in Madrid and 1.612 (1.379-1.885) in Barcelona. In terms of attributable burden, summer temperatures (June-September) were responsible for 16.2% (8.8-23.3) and 22.3% (15.4-29.2) of overall fatal hospitalisations from respiratory diseases in Madrid and Barcelona, respectively. Women were more vulnerable to heat than men, whereas the results by diagnostic of admission showed heat effects for acute bronchitis and bronchiolitis, pneumonia and respiratory failure.

Interpretation

Unless effective adaptation measures are taken in hospital facilities, climate warming could exacerbate the burden of inpatient mortality from respiratory diseases during the warm season.

Funding

European Research Council Consolidator Grant EARLY-ADAPT, European Research Council Proof-of-Concept Grants HHS-EWS and FORECAST-AIR.

Thermal stability and storage of human insulin

BACKGROUND

Health authorities stress the temperature sensitivity of human insulin, advising protection from heat and freezing, with manufacturers suggesting low-temperature storage for intact vials, and once opened, storage at room temperature for four to six weeks, though usage time and maximum temperature recommendations vary. For human insulin, the recommendations of current shelf life in use may range from 10 to 45 days, and the maximum temperature in use varies between 25 °C and 37 °C. Optimal cold-chain management of human insulin from manufacturing until the point of delivery to people with diabetes should always be maintained, and people with diabetes and access to reliable refrigeration should follow manufacturers' recommendations. However, a growing segment of the diabetes-affected global population resides in challenging environments, confronting prolonged exposure to extreme heat due to the climate crisis, all while grappling with limited access to refrigeration.

OBJECTIVES

To analyse the effects of storing human insulin above or below the manufacturers' recommended insulin temperature storage range or advised usage time, or both, after dispensing human insulin to people with diabetes.

SEARCH METHODS

We used standard, extensive Cochrane search methods. The latest search date was 12 July 2023.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included clinical and laboratory studies investigating the storage of human insulin above or below manufacturers' recommended temperature storage range, advised usage time, or both.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used standard Cochrane methods. We used GRADE to assess the certainty of evidence for the clinical study. Most information emerged from in vitro studies, mainly from pharmaceutical companies. There is no validated risk of bias and certainty of evidence rating for in vitro studies. We thus presented a narrative summary of the results.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 17 eligible studies (22 articles) and additional information from pharmaceutical companies. Pilot clinical study One pilot clinical study investigated temperature conditions for insulin stored for six weeks in an unglazed clay pot with temperatures ranging between 25 °C and 27 °C. The mean fall in plasma glucose in eight healthy volunteers after clay pot-stored insulin injection was comparable to refrigerator-stored insulin injection (very low-certainty evidence). In-vitro studies Nine, three and four laboratory studies investigated storage conditions for insulin vials, insulin cartridges/pens and prefilled plastic syringes, respectively. The included studies reported numerous methods, laboratory measurements and storage conditions. Three studies on prefilled syringes investigating insulin potency at 4 °C up to 23 °C for up to 28 days showed no clinically relevant loss of insulin activity. Nine studies examined unopened vials and cartridges. In studies with no clinically relevant loss of insulin activity for human short-acting insulin (SAI), intermediate-acting insulin (IAI) and mixed insulin (MI) temperatures ranged between 28.9 °C and 37 °C for up to four months. Two studies reported up to 18% loss of insulin activity after one week to 28 days at 37 °C. Four studies examined opened vials and cartridges at up to 37 °C for up to 12 weeks, indicating no clinically relevant reduction in insulin activity. Two studies analysed storage conditions for oscillating temperatures ranging between 25 °C and 37 °C for up to 12 weeks and observed no loss of insulin activity for SAI, IAI and MI. Four studies, two on vials (including one on opened vials), and two on prefilled syringes, investigated sterility and reported no microbial contamination. Data from pharmaceutical companies Four manufacturers (BIOTON, Eli Lilly and Company, Novo Nordisk and Sanofi) provided previously unreleased human insulin thermostability data mostly referring to unopened containers (vials, cartridges). We could not include the data from Sanofi because the company announced the permanent discontinuation of the production of human insulins Insuman Rapid, Basal and Comb 25. BIOTON provided data on SAI after one, three and six months at 25 °C: all investigated parameters were within reference values, and, compared to baseline, loss of insulin activity was 1.1%, 1.0% and 1.7%, respectively. Eli Lilly and Company provided summary data: at below 25 °C or 30 °C SAI/IAI/MI could be stored for up to 25 days or 12 days, respectively. Thereafter, patient in-use was possible for up to 28 days. Novo Nordisk provided extensive data: compared to baseline, after three and six months at 25 °C, loss of SAI activity was 1.8% and 3.2% to 3.5%, respectively. Loss of IAI activity was 1.2% to 1.9% after three months and 2.0% to 2.3% after six months. Compared to baseline, after one, two and three months at 37 °C, loss of SAI activity was 2.2% to 2.8%, 5.7% and 8.3% to 8.6%, respectively. Loss IAI activity was 1.4% to 1.8%, 3.0% to 3.8% and 4.7% to 5.3%, respectively. There was no relevant increase in insulin degradation products observed. Up to six months at 25 °C and up to two months at 37 °C high molecular weight proteins were within specifications. Appearance, visible particles or macroscopy, particulate matter, zinc, pH, metacresol and phenol complied with specifications. There were no data for cold environmental conditions and insulin pumps.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Under difficult living conditions, pharmaceutical companies' data indicate that it is possible to store unopened SAI and IAI vials and cartridges at up to 25 °C for a maximum of six months and at up to 37 °C for a maximum of two months without a clinically relevant loss of insulin potency. Also, oscillating temperatures between 25 °C and 37 °C for up to three months result in no loss of insulin activity for SAI, IAI and MI. In addition, ambient temperature can be lowered by use of simple cooling devices such as clay pots for insulin storage. Clinical studies on opened and unopened insulin containers should be performed to measure insulin potency and stability after varying storage conditions. Furthermore, more data are needed on MI, insulin pumps, sterility and cold climate conditions.

The Direct and Indirect Influences of Interrelated Regional-Level Sociodemographic Factors on Heat-Attributable Mortality in Europe: Insights for Adaptation Strategies

BACKGROUND

Heat is a significant cause of mortality, but impact patterns are heterogenous. Previous studies assessing such heterogeneity focused exclusively on risk rather than heat-attributable mortality burdens and assume predictors are independent.

OBJECTIVES

We assessed how four interrelated regional-level sociodemographic predictors-education, life expectancy, the ratio of older to younger people (aging index), and relative income-influence heterogeneity in heat-attributable mortality burdens in Europe and then derived insights into adaptation strategies.

METHODS

We extracted four outcomes from a temperature-mortality study covering 16 European countries: the rate of increase in mortality risk at moderate and extreme temperatures (moderate and extreme slope, respectively), the minimum mortality temperature percentile (MMTP), and the underlying mortality rate. We used structural equation modeling with country-level random effects to quantify the direct and indirect influences of the predictors on the outcomes.

RESULTS

Higher levels of education were directly associated with lower heat-related mortality at moderate and extreme temperatures via lower slopes and higher MMTPs. A one standard deviation increase in education was associated with a - 0.46 ± 0.14 , - 0.41 ± 0.12 , and 0.41 ± 0.12 standard deviation (± standard error ) change in the moderate slope, extreme slope, and MMTP, respectively. However, education had mixed indirect influences via associations with life expectancy, the aging index, and relative income. Higher life expectancy had mixed relations with heat-related mortality, being associated with higher risk at moderate temperatures (0.33 ± 0.11 for the moderate slope; - 0.19 ± 0.097 for the MMTP) but lower underlying mortality rates (- 0.72 ± 0.097 ). A higher aging index was associated with higher burdens through higher risk at extreme temperatures (0.13 ± 0.072 for the extreme slope) and higher underlying mortality rates (0.93 ± 0.055 ). Relative income had relatively small, mixed influences.

DISCUSSION

Our novel approach provided insights into actions for reducing the health impacts of heat. First, the results show the interrelations between possible vulnerability-generating mechanisms and suggest future research directions. Second, the findings point to the need for a dual approach to adaptation, with actions that explicitly target heat exposure reduction and actions focused explicitly on the root causes of vulnerability. For the latter, the climate crisis may be leveraged to accelerate ongoing general public health programs. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11766.

Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022

Over 70,000 excess deaths occurred in Europe during the summer of 2003. The resulting societal awareness led to the design and implementation of adaptation strategies to protect at-risk populations. We aimed to quantify heat-related mortality burden during the summer of 2022, the hottest season on record in Europe. We analyzed the Eurostat mortality database, which includes 45,184,044 counts of death from 823 contiguous regions in 35 European countries, representing the whole population of over 543 million people. We estimated 61,672 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 37,643-86,807) heat-related deaths in Europe between 30 May and 4 September 2022. Italy (18,010 deaths; 95% CI = 13,793-22,225), Spain (11,324; 95% CI = 7,908-14,880) and Germany (8,173; 95% CI = 5,374-11,018) had the highest summer heat-related mortality numbers, while Italy (295 deaths per million, 95% CI = 226-364), Greece (280, 95% CI = 201-355), Spain (237, 95% CI = 166-312) and Portugal (211, 95% CI = 162-255) had the highest heat-related mortality rates. Relative to population, we estimated 56% more heat-related deaths in women than men, with higher rates in men aged 0-64 (+41%) and 65-79 (+14%) years, and in women aged 80+ years (+27%). Our results call for a reevaluation and strengthening of existing heat surveillance platforms, prevention plans and long-term adaptation strategies.

Cooling cities through urban green infrastructure: a health impact assessment of European cities

BACKGROUND

High ambient temperatures are associated with many health effects, including premature mortality. The combination of global warming due to climate change and the expansion of the global built environment mean that the intensification of urban heat islands (UHIs) is expected, accompanied by adverse effects on population health. Urban green infrastructure can reduce local temperatures. We aimed to estimate the mortality burden that could be attributed to UHIs and the mortality burden that would be prevented by increasing urban tree coverage in 93 European cities.

METHODS

We did a quantitative health impact assessment for summer (June 1-Aug 31), 2015, of the effect of UHIs on all-cause mortality for adults aged 20 years or older in 93 European cities. We also estimated the temperature reductions that would result from increasing tree coverage to 30% for each city and estimated the number of deaths that could be potentially prevented as a result. We did all analyses at a high-resolution grid-cell level (250 × 250 m). We propagated uncertainties in input analyses by using Monte Carlo simulations to obtain point estimates and 95% CIs. We also did sensitivity analyses to test the robustness of our estimates.

FINDINGS

The population-weighted mean city temperature increase due to UHI effects was 1·5°C (SD 0·5; range 0·5-3·0). Overall, 6700 (95% CI 5254-8162) premature deaths could be attributable to the effects of UHIs (corresponding to around 4·33% [95% CI 3·37-5·28] of all summer deaths). We estimated that increasing tree coverage to 30% would cool cities by a mean of 0·4°C (SD 0·2; range 0·0-1·3). We also estimated that 2644 (95% CI 2444-2824) premature deaths could be prevented by increasing city tree coverage to 30%, corresponding to 1·84% (1·69-1·97) of all summer deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Our results showed the deleterious effects of UHIs on mortality and highlighted the health benefits of increasing tree coverage to cool urban environments, which would also result in more sustainable and climate-resilient cities.

FUNDING

GoGreenRoutes, Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, Institute for Global Health, UK Medical Research Council, European Union's Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion.

Thermal stability and storage of human insulin

This is a protocol for a Cochrane Review (prototype). The objectives are as follows:

To analyse the effects of storing human insulin above or below the manufacturers' recommended insulin temperature storage range or advised usage time, or both, after dispensing human insulin to people with diabetes.