Improved Constraints on Global Methane Emissions and Sinks Using δ 13C-CH4

Salinity causes differences in stratigraphic methane sources and sinks

Methane metabolism, driven by methanogenic and methanotrophic microorganisms, plays a pivotal role in the carbon cycle. As seawater intrusion and soil salinization rise due to global environmental shifts, understanding how salinity affects methane emissions, especially in deep strata, becomes imperative. Yet, insights into stratigraphic methane release under varying salinity conditions remain sparse. Here we investigate the effects of salinity on methane metabolism across terrestrial and coastal strata (15-40 m depth) through in situ and microcosm simulation studies. Coastal strata, exhibiting a salinity level five times greater than terrestrial strata, manifested a 12.05% decrease in total methane production, but a staggering 687.34% surge in methane oxidation, culminating in 146.31% diminished methane emissions. Salinity emerged as a significant factor shaping the methane-metabolizing microbial community's dynamics, impacting the methanogenic archaeal, methanotrophic archaeal, and methanotrophic bacterial communities by 16.53%, 27.25%, and 22.94%, respectively. Furthermore, microbial interactions influenced strata system methane metabolism. Metabolic pathway analyses suggested Atribacteria JS1's potential role in organic matter decomposition, facilitating methane production via Methanofastidiosales. This study thus offers a comprehensive lens to comprehend stratigraphic methane emission dynamics and the overarching factors modulating them.

Earth at risk: An urgent call to end the age of destruction and forge a just and sustainable future

Human development has ushered in an era of converging crises: climate change, ecological destruction, disease, pollution, and socioeconomic inequality. This review synthesizes the breadth of these interwoven emergencies and underscores the urgent need for comprehensive, integrated action. Propelled by imperialism, extractive capitalism, and a surging population, we are speeding past Earth's material limits, destroying critical ecosystems, and triggering irreversible changes in biophysical systems that underpin the Holocene climatic stability which fostered human civilization. The consequences of these actions are disproportionately borne by vulnerable populations, further entrenching global inequities. Marine and terrestrial biomes face critical tipping points, while escalating challenges to food and water access foreshadow a bleak outlook for global security. Against this backdrop of Earth at risk, we call for a global response centered on urgent decarbonization, fostering reciprocity with nature, and implementing regenerative practices in natural resource management. We call for the elimination of detrimental subsidies, promotion of equitable human development, and transformative financial support for lower income nations. A critical paradigm shift must occur that replaces exploitative, wealth-oriented capitalism with an economic model that prioritizes sustainability, resilience, and justice. We advocate a global cultural shift that elevates kinship with nature and communal well-being, underpinned by the recognition of Earth's finite resources and the interconnectedness of its inhabitants. The imperative is clear: to navigate away from this precipice, we must collectively harness political will, economic resources, and societal values to steer toward a future where human progress does not come at the cost of ecological integrity and social equity.

Identifying emission sources of CH4 in East Asia based on in-situ observations of atmospheric δ13C-CH4 and C2H6

Methane (CH4) is the second most important greenhouse gas influenced by human activity. The increase in atmospheric CH4 concentrations contributed ~23 % to the anthropogenic radiative forcing (Saunois et al., 2020). The current anthropogenic CH4 emissions trajectory implies that large emissions reductions are needed to meet the target of the Paris Agreement (Nisbet et al., 2019). For effective regulation of CH4, it is important to identify spatiotemporal emission sources, in particular those from East Asia - one of the largest CH4 emitters. In this study, we present in-situ observations of atmospheric CH4 concentrations (i.e., dry air mole fractions in part per billion (ppb)) and carbon isotopic compositions of CH4 made during 2017-2020 at the Gosan station (GSN, 33.3°N, 126.2°E, 72 m a.s.l) which is representative of regional background conditions in East Asia. The annual growth rate of the observed CH4 baseline concentrations was 11 ± 1 ppb yr-1. The enhanced pollution concentrations of CH4 showed seasonally distinctive correlations with the corresponding δ13C-CH4. The CH4 source isotopic signature for winter derived based on both the Keeling and Miller-Tans approaches was -40.7 ± 3.4 ‰, suggesting dominant thermogenic sources (e.g., coal and/or gas combustion), whereas the source signature for summer was estimated as -54.1 ± 1.2 ‰, which seemed to represent both microbial sources (e.g., rice paddies) and fossil fuel sources of CH4 emissions. Based on the δ13C-CH4 source signatures, we were able to infer that the proportional contribution of microbial sources to CH4 summer emissions was ranges from 45 to 79 %. The finding indicates that microbial sources account for a substantial portion of CH4 summer emissions, consistent with estimates of 74-80 % derived from the observed correlation between CH4 and C2H6, which serves as a complementary tracer for fossil fuel sources.

Biotic interactions between benthic infauna and aerobic methanotrophs mediate methane fluxes from coastal sediments

Coastal ecosystems dominate oceanic methane (CH4) emissions. However, there is limited knowledge about how biotic interactions between infauna and aerobic methanotrophs (i.e. CH4 oxidizing bacteria) drive the spatial-temporal dynamics of these emissions. Here, we investigated the role of meio- and macrofauna in mediating CH4 sediment-water fluxes and aerobic methanotrophic activity that can oxidize significant portions of CH4. We show that macrofauna increases CH4 fluxes by enhancing vertical solute transport through bioturbation, but this effect is somewhat offset by high meiofauna abundance. The increase in CH4 flux reduces CH4 pore-water availability, resulting in lower abundance and activity of aerobic methanotrophs, an effect that counterbalances the potential stimulation of these bacteria by higher oxygen flux to the sediment via bioturbation. These findings indicate that a larger than previously thought portion of CH4 emissions from coastal ecosystems is due to faunal activity and multiple complex interactions with methanotrophs.

Mapping wetlands in Northeast China by using knowledge-based algorithms and microwave (PALSAR-2, Sentinel-1), optical (Sentinel-2, Landsat), and thermal (MODIS) images

Wetlands are rich in biodiversity, provide habitats for many wildlife species, and play a vital role in the transmission of bird-borne infectious diseases (e.g., highly pathogenic avian influenza). However, wetlands worldwide have been degraded or even disappeared due to natural and anthropogenic activities over the past two centuries. At present, major data products of wetlands have large uncertainties, low to moderate accuracies, and lack regular updates. Therefore, accurate and updated wetlands maps are needed for the sustainable management and conservation of wetlands. Here, we consider the remote sensing capability and define wetland types in terms of plant growth form (tree, shrub, grass), life cycle (perennial, annual), leaf seasonality (evergreen, deciduous), and canopy type (open, closed). We identify unique and stable features of individual wetland types and develop knowledge-based algorithms to map them in Northeast China at 10 m spatial resolution by using microwave (PALSAR-2, Sentinel-1), optical (Landsat (ETM+/OLI), Sentinel-2), and thermal (MODIS land surface temperature, LST) imagery in 2020. The resultant wetland map has a high overall accuracy of >95%. There were a total 154,254 km2 of wetlands in Northeast China in 2020, which included 27,219 km2 of seasonal open-canopy marsh, 69,158 km2 of yearlong closed-canopy marsh, and 57,878 km2 of deciduous forest swamp. Our results demonstrate the potential of knowledge-based algorithms and integrated multi-source image data for wetlands mapping and monitoring, which could provide improved data for the planning of wetland conservation and restoration.

Tracing sources of atmospheric methane using clumped isotopes

We apply a recently developed measurement technique for methane (CH4) isotopologues* (isotopic variants of CH4-13CH4, 12CH3D, 13CH3D, and 12CH2D2) to identify contributions to the atmospheric burden from fossil fuel and microbial sources. The aim of this study is to constrain factors that ultimately control the concentration of this potent greenhouse gas on global, regional, and local levels. While predictions of atmospheric methane isotopologues have been modeled, we present direct measurements that point to a different atmospheric methane composition and to a microbial flux with less clumping (greater deficits relative to stochastic) in both 13CH3D and 12CH2D2 than had been previously assigned. These differences make atmospheric isotopologue data sufficiently sensitive to variations in microbial to fossil fuel fluxes to distinguish between emissions scenarios such as those generated by different versions of EDGAR (the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research), even when existing constraints on the atmospheric CH4 concentration profile as well as traditional isotopes are kept constant.

Revisiting the biological pathway for methanogenesis in landfill from metagenomic perspective-A case study of county-level sanitary landfill of domestic waste in North China plain

Landfill is the third highest contributor to anthropogenic methane (CH₄) emissions, produced primarily by the anaerobic decomposition of organic matter by microbes. However, how various microbial metabolic processes contribute to CH₄ production in domestic waste landfill remains elusive. We addressed this problem by investigating the methanogenic communities, methanogenic functional genes, KEGG modules and KEGG pathways in a county-level MSW sanitary landfill in North China Plain, China. Results showed that Methanomicrobiales, Methanobacteriales, Methanosarcinales, Micrococcales, Corynebacteriales and Bacillales were the dominant methanogens. M00357, M00346, M00567 and M00563 were the four major methane metabolic modules. The most abundant genes were ACSS, ackA and fwd with the relative abundance of 19.26-54.54%, 6.14-25.78% and 6.76-16.51%, respectively. The two essential genes of methanogenesis were detected with the relative abundance of 2.66-9.58% (mtr) and 1.63-9.14% (mcr). These findings indicated that acetotrophic and hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis were the major pathways. Methanomicrobiales, Methanosarcinales and Clostridiales were the key microbes to these pathways identified by co-occurrence network. Analysis of relative contribution of species to function further showed that Micrococcales, Corynebacteriales and Bacillales were special contributors to acetotrophic methanogenesis pathway. Redundancy analysis revealed that above functional genes and microbes were mainly controlled by NH₄⁺ and pH. Our results can help to provide develop the fine management strategies for methane utilization and emission reduction in landfill.

Decadal cyclical geological atmospheric emissions for a major marine seep field, offshore Coal Oil Point, Southern California

The greenhouse gas, methane, budget has significant uncertainty for many sources, including natural geological emissions. A major uncertainty of geological methane emissions, including onshore and offshore hydrocarbon seepage from subsurface hydrocarbon reservoirs is the gas emissions' temporal variability. Current atmospheric methane budget models assume seepage is constant; nevertheless, available data and seepage conceptual models suggest gas seepage can vary considerably on timescales from second to century. The assumption of steady-seepage is used because long-term datasets to characterize these variabilities are lacking. A 30-year air quality dataset downwind of the Coal Oil Point seep field, offshore California found methane, CH₄, concentrations downwind of the seep field increased from a 1995 minimum to a 2008 peak, decreasing exponentially afterward with a 10.2-year timescale (R² = 0.91). Atmospheric emissions, E_A, were derived by a time-resolved Gaussian plume inversion model of the concentration anomaly using observed winds and gridded sonar source location maps. E_A increased from 27,200 to 161,000 m³ day^-1 (corresponding to 6.5-38 Gg CH₄ year^-1 for 91% CH₄ content) for 1995-2009, respectively, with 15% uncertainty, then decreased exponentially from 2009 to 2015 before rising above the trend. 2015 corresponded to the cessation of oil and gas production, which affects the western seep field. E_A varied sinusoidally with a 26.3-year period (R² = 0.89) that largely tracked the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which is driven on these timescales by an 18.6-year earth-tidal cycle (27.9-year beat). A similar controlling factor may underlie both, specifically varying compressional stresses on migration pathways. This also suggests the seep atmospheric budget may exhibit multi-decadal trends.

Impact of interannual and multidecadal trends on methane-climate feedbacks and sensitivity

We estimate the causal contributions of spatiotemporal changes in temperature (T) and precipitation (Pr) to changes in Earth’s atmospheric methane concentration (C_CH4) and its isotope ratio δ¹³CH₄ over the last four decades. We identify oscillations between positive and negative feedbacks, showing that both contribute to increasing C_CH4. Interannually, increased emissions via positive feedbacks (e.g. wetland emissions and wildfires) with higher land surface air temperature (LSAT) are often followed by increasing C_CH4 due to weakened methane sink via atmospheric ^•OH, via negative feedbacks with lowered sea surface temperatures (SST), especially in the tropics. Over decadal time scales, we find alternating rate-limiting factors for methane oxidation: when C_CH4 is limiting, positive methane-climate feedback via direct oceanic emissions dominates; when ^•OH is limiting, negative feedback is favoured. Incorporating the interannually increasing C_CH4 via negative feedbacks gives historical methane-climate feedback sensitivity ≈ 0.08 W m⁻² °C⁻¹, much higher than the IPCC AR6 estimate.

Record-breaking rates of increasing atmospheric methane concentrations in 2020 and 2021 are alarming, but puzzling, in view of declining methane emissions from fossil fuel in 2020. The authors show that interannual variation of both positive and negative feedbacks contribute positively to the rising methane concentration.

The Role of Emission Sources and Atmospheric Sink in the Seasonal Cycle of CH4 and δ13-CH4: Analysis Based on the Atmospheric Chemistry Transport Model TM5

This study investigates the contribution of different CH4 sources to the seasonal cycle of δ13C during 2000–2012 by using the TM5 atmospheric transport model, including spatially varying information on isotopic signatures. The TM5 model is able to produce the background seasonality of δ13C, but the discrepancies compared to the observations arise from incomplete representation of the emissions and their source-specific signatures. Seasonal cycles of δ13C are found to be an inverse of CH4 cycles in general, but the anti-correlations between CH4 and δ13C are imperfect and experience a large variation (p=−0.35 to −0.91) north of 30° S. We found that wetland emissions are an important driver in the δ13C seasonal cycle in the Northern Hemisphere and Tropics, and in the Southern Hemisphere Tropics, emissions from fires contribute to the enrichment of δ13C in July–October. The comparisons to the observations from 18 stations globally showed that the seasonal cycle of EFMM emissions in the EDGAR v5.0 inventory is more realistic than in v4.3.2. At northern stations (north of 55° N), modeled δ13C amplitudes are generally smaller by 12–68%, mainly because the model could not reproduce the strong depletion in autumn. This indicates that the CH4 emission magnitude and seasonal cycle of wetlands may need to be revised. In addition, results from stations in northern latitudes (19–40° N) indicate that the proportion of biogenic to fossil-based emissions may need to be revised, such that a larger portion of fossil-based emissions is needed during summer.

Environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, Update 2021

The Environmental Effects Assessment Panel of the Montreal Protocol under the United Nations Environment Programme evaluates effects on the environment and human health that arise from changes in the stratospheric ozone layer and concomitant variations in ultraviolet (UV) radiation at the Earth’s surface. The current update is based on scientific advances that have accumulated since our last assessment (Photochem and Photobiol Sci 20(1):1–67, 2021). We also discuss how climate change affects stratospheric ozone depletion and ultraviolet radiation, and how stratospheric ozone depletion affects climate change. The resulting interlinking effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and climate change are assessed in terms of air quality, carbon sinks, ecosystems, human health, and natural and synthetic materials. We further highlight potential impacts on the biosphere from extreme climate events that are occurring with increasing frequency as a consequence of climate change. These and other interactive effects are examined with respect to the benefits that the Montreal Protocol and its Amendments are providing to life on Earth by controlling the production of various substances that contribute to both stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change.

Atmospheric Methane Consumption and Methanotroph Communities in West Siberian Boreal Upland Forest Ecosystems

Upland forest ecosystems are recognized as net sinks for atmospheric methane (CH4), one of the most impactful greenhouse gases. Biological methane uptake in these ecosystems occurs due to the activity of aerobic methanotrophic bacteria. Russia hosts one-fifth of the global forest area, with the most extensive forest landscapes located in West Siberia. Here, we report seasonal CH4 flux measurements conducted in 2018 in three types of stands in West Siberian middle taiga–Siberian pine, Aspen, and mixed forests. High rates of methane uptake of up to −0.184 mg CH4 m−2 h−1 were measured by a static chamber method, with an estimated total growing season consumption of 4.5 ± 0.5 kg CH4 ha−1. Forest type had little to no effect on methane fluxes within each season. Soil methane oxidation rate ranged from 0 to 8.1 ng CH4 gDW−1 h−1 and was negatively related to water-filled pore space. The microbial soil communities were dominated by the Alpha- and Gammaproteobacteria, Acidobacteriota and Actinobacteriota. The major group of 16S rRNA gene reads from methanotrophs belonged to uncultivated Beijerinckiaceae bacteria. Molecular identification of methanotrophs based on retrieval of the pmoA gene confirmed that Upland Soil Cluster Alpha was the major bacterial group responsible for CH4 oxidation.

Atmospheric methane and nitrous oxide: challenges alongthe path to Net Zero

The causes of methane's renewed rise since 2007, accelerated growth from 2014 and record rise in 2020, concurrent with an isotopic shift to values more depleted in ¹³C, remain poorly understood. This rise is the dominant departure from greenhouse gas scenarios that limit global heating to less than 2°C. Thus a comprehensive understanding of methane sources and sinks, their trends and inter-annual variations are becoming more urgent. Efforts to quantify both sources and sinks and understand latitudinal and seasonal variations will improve our understanding of the methane cycle and its anthropogenic component. Nationally declared emissions inventories under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and promised contributions to emissions reductions under the UNFCCC Paris Agreement need to be verified independently by top-down observation. Furthermore, indirect effects on natural emissions, such as changes in aquatic ecosystems, also need to be quantified. Nitrous oxide is even more poorly understood. Despite this, options for mitigating methane and nitrous oxide emissions are improving rapidly, both in cutting emissions from gas, oil and coal extraction and use, and also from agricultural and waste sources. Reductions in methane and nitrous oxide emission are arguably among the most attractive immediate options for climate action. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 1)'.

What do we know about the global methane budget? Results from four decades of atmospheric CH4 observations and the way forward

Atmospheric CH₄ is arguably the most interesting of the anthropogenically influenced, long-lived greenhouse gases. It has a diverse suite of sources, each presenting its own challenges in quantifying emissions, and while its main sink, atmospheric oxidation initiated by reaction with hydroxyl radical (OH), is well-known, determining the magnitude and trend in this and other smaller sinks remains challenging. Here, we provide an overview of the state of knowledge of the dynamic atmospheric CH₄ budget of sources and sinks determined from measurements of CH₄ and δ¹³C_CH4 in air samples collected predominantly at background air sampling sites. While nearly four decades of direct measurements provide a strong foundation of understanding, large uncertainties in some aspects of the global CH₄ budget still remain. More complete understanding of the global CH₄ budget requires significantly more observations, not just of CH₄ itself, but other parameters to better constrain key, but still uncertain, processes like wetlands and sinks. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 1)'.