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Eggeling J, Gao C, An D, Cruz-Cano R, He H, Zhang L, Wang YC, Sapkota A. Spatiotemporal link between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), extreme heat, and thermal stress in the Asia-Pacific region. Sci Rep 2024; 14:7448. [PMID: 38548842 PMCID: PMC10978954 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-58288-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/15/2023] [Accepted: 03/27/2024] [Indexed: 04/01/2024] Open
Abstract
Climate change is closely monitored and numerous studies reports increasing air temperature and weather extremes across the globe. As a direct consequence of the increase of global temperature, the increased heat stress is becoming a global threat to public health. While most climate change and epidemiological studies focus on air temperature to explain the increasing risks, heat strain can be predicted using comprehensive indices such as Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). The Asia-Pacific region is prone to thermal stress and the high population densities in the region impose high health risk. This study evaluated the air temperature and UTCI trends between 1990 and 2019 and found significant increasing trends for air temperature for the whole region while the increases of UTCI are not as pronounced and mainly found in the northern part of the region. These results indicate that even though air temperature is increasing, the risks of heat stress when assessed using UTCI may be alleviated by other factors. The associations between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and heat stress was evaluated on a seasonal level and the strongest regional responses were found during December-January (DJF) and March-May (MAM).
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Affiliation(s)
- Jakob Eggeling
- Aerosol and Climate Laboratory, Division of Ergonomics and Aerosol Technology, Department of Design Sciences, Faculty of Engineering (LTH), Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
| | - Chuansi Gao
- Aerosol and Climate Laboratory, Division of Ergonomics and Aerosol Technology, Department of Design Sciences, Faculty of Engineering (LTH), Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Dong An
- Division of Water Resources Engineering, Faculty of Engineering (LTH), Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Raul Cruz-Cano
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, 47405, USA
| | - Hao He
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742, USA
| | - Linus Zhang
- Division of Water Resources Engineering, Faculty of Engineering (LTH), Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Yu-Chun Wang
- Department of Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Chung Yuan Christian University, 200 Chung-Pei Road, Zhongli, 320, Taiwan
| | - Amir Sapkota
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742, USA
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Lee TT, Dalvie MA, Röösli M, Merten S, Kwiatkowski M, Mahomed H, Sweijd N, Cissé G. Understanding diarrhoeal diseases in response to climate variability and drought in Cape Town, South Africa: a mixed methods approach. Infect Dis Poverty 2023; 12:76. [PMID: 37596648 PMCID: PMC10436439 DOI: 10.1186/s40249-023-01127-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2023] [Accepted: 08/03/2023] [Indexed: 08/20/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The climate of southern Africa is expected to become hotter and drier with more frequent severe droughts and the incidence of diarrhoea to increase. From 2015 to 2018, Cape Town, South Africa, experienced a severe drought which resulted in extreme water conservation efforts. We aimed to gain a more holistic understanding of the relationship between diarrhoea in young children and climate variability in a system stressed by water scarcity. METHODS Using a mixed-methods approach, we explored diarrhoeal disease incidence in children under 5 years between 2010 to 2019 in Cape Town, primarily in the public health system through routinely collected diarrhoeal incidence and weather station data. We developed a negative binomial regression model to understand the relationship between temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity on incidence of diarrhoea with dehydration. We conducted in-depth interviews with stakeholders in the fields of health, environment, and human development on perceptions around diarrhoea and health-related interventions both prior to and over the drought, and analysed them through the framework method. RESULTS From diarrhoeal incidence data, the diarrhoea with dehydration incidence decreased over the decade studied, e.g. reduction of 64.7% in 2019 [95% confidence interval (CI): 5.5-7.2%] compared to 2010, with no increase during the severe drought period. Over the hot dry diarrhoeal season (November to May), the monthly diarrhoea with dehydration incidence increased by 7.4% (95% CI: 4.5-10.3%) per 1 °C increase in temperature and 2.6% (95% CI: 1.7-3.5%) per 1% increase in relative humidity in the unlagged model. Stakeholder interviews found that extensive and sustained diarrhoeal interventions were perceived to be responsible for the overall reduction in diarrhoeal incidence and mortality over the prior decade. During the drought, as diarrhoeal interventions were maintained, the expected increase in incidence in the public health sector did not occur. CONCLUSIONS We found that that diarrhoeal incidence has decreased over the last decade and that incidence is strongly influenced by local temperature and humidity, particularly over the hot dry season. While climate change and extreme weather events especially stress systems supporting vulnerable populations such as young children, maintaining strong and consistent public health interventions helps to reduce negative health impacts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tristan Taylor Lee
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, Switzerland
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Mohamed Aqiel Dalvie
- Centre for Environmental and Occupational Health Research, School of Public Health, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Martin Röösli
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, Switzerland
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Sonja Merten
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, Switzerland
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Marek Kwiatkowski
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, Switzerland
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Hassan Mahomed
- Metro Health Services, Western Cape Government: Health and Wellness, Western Cape, South Africa
- Division of Health Systems and Public Health, Department of Global Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
| | - Neville Sweijd
- Alliance for Collaboration on Climate and Earth Systems Science, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Pretoria, South Africa
| | - Guéladio Cissé
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, Switzerland.
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.
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An D, Eggeling J, Zhang L, He H, Sapkota A, Wang YC, Gao C. Extreme precipitation patterns in the Asia-Pacific region and its correlation with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Sci Rep 2023; 13:11068. [PMID: 37422491 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-38317-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/25/2023] [Accepted: 07/06/2023] [Indexed: 07/10/2023] Open
Abstract
In the Asia-Pacific region (APR), extreme precipitation is one of the most critical climate stressors, affecting 60% of the population and adding pressure to governance, economic, environmental, and public health challenges. In this study, we analyzed extreme precipitation spatiotemporal trends in APR using 11 different indices and revealed the dominant factors governing precipitation amount by attributing its variability to precipitation frequency and intensity. We further investigated how these extreme precipitation indices are influenced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at a seasonal scale. The analysis covered 465 ERA5 (the fifth-generation atmospheric reanalysis of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) study locations over eight countries and regions during 1990-2019. Results revealed a general decrease indicated by the extreme precipitation indices (e.g., the annual total amount of wet-day precipitation, average intensity of wet-day precipitation), particularly in central-eastern China, Bangladesh, eastern India, Peninsular Malaysia and Indonesia. We observed that the seasonal variability of the amount of wet-day precipitation in most locations in China and India are dominated by precipitation intensity in June-August (JJA), and by precipitation frequency in December-February (DJF). Locations in Malaysia and Indonesia are mostly dominated by precipitation intensity in March-May (MAM) and DJF. During ENSO positive phase, significant negative anomalies in seasonal precipitation indices (amount of wet-day precipitation, number of wet days and intensity of wet-day precipitation) were observed in Indonesia, while opposite results were observed for ENSO negative phase. These findings revealing patterns and drivers for extreme precipitation in APR may inform climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies in the study region.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dong An
- Division of Water Resources Engineering, Faculty of Engineering (LTH), Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
| | - Jakob Eggeling
- Aerosol and Climate Laboratory, Division of Ergonomics and Aerosol Technology, Department of Design Sciences, Faculty of Engineering (LTH), Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Linus Zhang
- Division of Water Resources Engineering, Faculty of Engineering (LTH), Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Hao He
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742, USA
| | - Amir Sapkota
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742, USA
| | - Yu-Chun Wang
- Department of Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Chung Yuan Christian University, 200 Chung-Pei Road, Zhongli, 320, Taiwan
| | - Chuansi Gao
- Aerosol and Climate Laboratory, Division of Ergonomics and Aerosol Technology, Department of Design Sciences, Faculty of Engineering (LTH), Lund University, Lund, Sweden
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Napit R, Manandhar P, Poudel A, Rajbhandari PG, Watson S, Shakya S, Pradhan SM, Sharma AN, Chaudhary A, Johnson CK, Mazet JK, Karmacharya D. Novel strains of Campylobacter cause diarrheal outbreak in Rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta) of Kathmandu Valley. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0270778. [PMID: 36857401 PMCID: PMC9977009 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0270778] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/17/2022] [Accepted: 01/06/2023] [Indexed: 03/02/2023] Open
Abstract
Campylobacter spp. is often underreported and underrated bacteria that present real health risks to both humans and animals, including non-human primates. It is a commensal microorganism of gastrointestinal tract known to cause gastroenteritis in humans. Commonly found in many wild animals including non-human primates (monkeys- Rhesus macaques) these pathogens are known to be a common cause of diarrhea in humans in many parts of developing and under developed countries. Rhesus macaques from the two holy sites in Kathmandu (Pashupati and Swoyambhu) were included in this cross-sectional study. Diarrheal samples of monkeys were analyzed to detect and characterize the pathogen using 16S rRNA-based PCR screening, followed by DNA sequencing and phylogenetic analysis. Out of a total 67 collected diarrheal samples, Campylobacter spp. were detected in the majority of the samples (n = 64; 96%). DNA sequences of the amplified PCR products were successfully obtained from 13 samples. Phylogenetic analysis identified Candidatus Campylobacter infans (n = 10, Kimura-2 parameter (K2P) pairwise distance values of 0.002287). Remaining three sequences might potentially belong to a novel Campylobacter species/sub-species- closely relating to known species of C. helviticus (K2P pairwise distance of 0.0267). Both Candidatus Campylobacter infans and C. helvitucus are known to infect humans and animals. Additionally, we also detected the bacteria in water and soil samples from the sites. Campylobacter spp. caused the 2018 diarrhea outbreak in Rhesus macaques in the Kathmandu valley. Campylobacter might be one of the important contributing pathogens in diarrheal outbreaks-both in humans and animals (monkeys) in Nepal. Due to close interactions of these animals with humans and other animals, One Health approach might be the most effective way to prevent and mitigate the threat posed by this pathogen.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rajindra Napit
- One Health Research Division, Center for Molecular Dynamics Nepal, Kathmandu, Nepal
- Research Division, BIOVAC Nepal Pvt. Ltd., Nala, Banepa, Nepal
| | - Prajwol Manandhar
- One Health Research Division, Center for Molecular Dynamics Nepal, Kathmandu, Nepal
- Research Division, BIOVAC Nepal Pvt. Ltd., Nala, Banepa, Nepal
| | - Ajit Poudel
- One Health Research Division, Center for Molecular Dynamics Nepal, Kathmandu, Nepal
- Research Division, BIOVAC Nepal Pvt. Ltd., Nala, Banepa, Nepal
| | | | - Sarah Watson
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Sapana Shakya
- One Health Research Division, Center for Molecular Dynamics Nepal, Kathmandu, Nepal
| | - Saman M. Pradhan
- One Health Research Division, Center for Molecular Dynamics Nepal, Kathmandu, Nepal
- Research Division, BIOVAC Nepal Pvt. Ltd., Nala, Banepa, Nepal
| | - Ajay N. Sharma
- One Health Research Division, Center for Molecular Dynamics Nepal, Kathmandu, Nepal
| | - Ashok Chaudhary
- One Health Research Division, Center for Molecular Dynamics Nepal, Kathmandu, Nepal
| | - Christine K. Johnson
- One Health Institute, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, CA, United States of America
| | - Jonna K. Mazet
- One Health Institute, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, CA, United States of America
| | - Dibesh Karmacharya
- One Health Research Division, Center for Molecular Dynamics Nepal, Kathmandu, Nepal
- Research Division, BIOVAC Nepal Pvt. Ltd., Nala, Banepa, Nepal
- The School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, Queensland, Australia
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Dhimal M, Bhandari D, Karki KB, Shrestha SL, Khanal M, Shrestha RRP, Dahal S, Bista B, Ebi KL, Cissé G, Sapkota A, Groneberg DA. Effects of Climatic Factors on Diarrheal Diseases among Children below 5 Years of Age at National and Subnational Levels in Nepal: An Ecological Study. Int J Environ Res Public Health 2022; 19:6138. [PMID: 35627674 PMCID: PMC9140521 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19106138] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/28/2022] [Revised: 05/13/2022] [Accepted: 05/16/2022] [Indexed: 01/13/2023]
Abstract
Introduction: The incidence of diarrhea, a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in low-income countries such as Nepal, is temperature-sensitive, suggesting it could be associated with climate change. With climate change fueled increases in the mean and variability of temperature and precipitation, the incidence of water and food-borne diseases are increasing, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. This national-level ecological study was undertaken to provide evidence linking weather and climate with diarrhea incidence in Nepal. Method: We analyzed monthly diarrheal disease count and meteorological data from all districts, spanning 15 eco-development regions of Nepal. Meteorological data and monthly data on diarrheal disease were sourced, respectively, from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology and Health Management Information System (HMIS) of the Government of Nepal for the period from 2002 to 2014. Time-series log-linear regression models assessed the relationship between maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and diarrhea burden. Predictors with p-values < 0.25 were retained in the fitted models. Results: Overall, diarrheal disease incidence in Nepal significantly increased with 1 °C increase in mean temperature (4.4%; 95% CI: 3.95, 4.85) and 1 cm increase in rainfall (0.28%; 95% CI: 0.15, 0.41). Seasonal variation of diarrheal incidence was prominent at the national level (11.63% rise in diarrheal cases in summer (95% CI: 4.17, 19.61) and 14.5% decrease in spring (95% CI: −18.81, −10.02) compared to winter season). Moreover, the effects of temperature and rainfall were highest in the mountain region compared to other ecological regions of Nepal. Conclusion: Our study provides empirical evidence linking weather factors and diarrheal disease burden in Nepal. This evidence suggests that additional climate change could increase diarrheal disease incidence across the nation. Mountainous regions are more sensitive to climate variability and consequently the burden of diarrheal diseases. These findings can be utilized to allocate necessary resources and envision a weather-based early warning system for the prevention and control of diarrheal diseases in Nepal.
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Affiliation(s)
- Meghnath Dhimal
- Nepal Health Research Council, Ramshah Path, Kathmandu 44600, Nepal
| | - Dinesh Bhandari
- Nepal Health Research Council, Ramshah Path, Kathmandu 44600, Nepal
| | - Khem B Karki
- Nepal Health Research Council, Ramshah Path, Kathmandu 44600, Nepal
- Department of Community Medicine, Institute of Medicine, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu 44600, Nepal
| | - Srijan Lal Shrestha
- Central Department of Statistics, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur 44600, Nepal
| | - Mukti Khanal
- Management Division, Department of Health Services, Teku, Kathmandu 44600, Nepal
- National Tuberculosis Centre, Santo Thimi, Bhaktapur 44600, Nepal
| | | | - Sushma Dahal
- Nepal Health Research Council, Ramshah Path, Kathmandu 44600, Nepal
- School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30303, USA
| | - Bihungum Bista
- Nepal Health Research Council, Ramshah Path, Kathmandu 44600, Nepal
| | - Kristie L Ebi
- Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Guéladio Cissé
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss TPH, 4051 Basel, Switzerland
| | - Amir Sapkota
- Maryland Institute for Applied Environmental Health, School of Public Health, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
| | - David A Groneberg
- Institute of Occupation, Social and Environmental Medicine, Goethe University, 60323 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
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