Dating the common ancestor of SIVcpz and HIV-1 group M and the origin of HIV-1 subtypes using a new method to uncover clock-like molecular evolution

HIV-1 Gag, Pol, and Env diversified with limited adaptation since the 1980s

Knowledge of HIV-1 global sequence diversity is critical for developing an effective prophylactic against HIV-1 infection. We developed the Hervé platform to analyze and visualize trends in HIV-1 diversification. Using Hervé, we analyzed 4,830 Env, 4,407 Gag, and 3,002 Pol publicly available independent sequences corresponding to subtypes A1, A6, B, C, D, F1, and G and circulating recombinant forms (CRFs) 01_AE, 02_AG, and 07_BC; sequences were sampled between 1980 and 2020 from 82 countries. HIV-1 diversified with a median of 1.82 amino acid substitutions per year in Env, 0.297 in Gag, and 0.779 in Pol. Yet, Env subtype B diversification plateaued post-2000. Pairwise diversity within subtypes and CRFs increased by 41.82% (range = 24.85%-54.41%) in Env, 56.93% (15.38%-89.16%) in Gag, and 46.12% (11.70%-70.57%) in Pol. Consensus sequences based on sequences sampled in each decade remained relatively stable over time. Similarly, at antibody epitope sites, only 0-8 residues that were minority variants became consensus over time in any subtype/CRF and only one known drug resistance mutation site differed from the reference (subtype G). The apparent contradiction between the fast diversification of HIV-1 and its limited adaptation illustrates that HIV-1 evolution is not directional and its consensus is at the intersection of millions of within-host selective processes occurring in a star-like manner. While a consensus sequence is a better representation of HIV-1 diversity than any individual sequence, consensus sequences have progressively become more distant from the circulating sequences they represent.

IMPORTANCE

Global surveillance of HIV-1 sequences is critical for designing relevant prophylactic and therapeutic interventions to infection. We designed an open-source platform, Hervé, for analyzing and visualizing the diversification dynamics of HIV-1 protein sequences. We characterized the evolution of over 12,000 HIV-1 Env, Gag, and Pol protein sequences from 1980-2020 and found that, despite a steady increase in intra-subtype and circulating recombinant form diversity, the most frequent residue at each site, i.e., the consensus, has varied only moderately.

Structural Features and Genetic Diversity in Gag Gene of Rare HIV-1 Subtypes from the Democratic Republic of Congo

Type-1 HIV (HIV-1) group M (HIV-1M) genetic diversity is highest in the Congo Basin where the epidemic ignited a century ago. HIV-1M has diversified into multiple subtypes, sub-subtypes, and circulating and unique recombinant forms (CRFs/URFs). An unanswered question is why some rare subtypes never reached epidemic levels despite their age. Several studies identified the role of HIV-1M accessory genes nef and vpu in virus adaptation to human hosts and subsequent spread. Other reports also pointed out the pivotal role of gag in transmissibility, virulence, and replication capacity. In this study we characterized the HIV-1 gag gene of 148 samples collected in different localities of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) between 1997 and 2013. We used nested polymerase chain reaction (PCR) to amplify the whole gag gene. PCR products were sequenced either by Sanger method or by next generation sequencing on Illumina MiSeq or iSeq100 platforms. Generated sequences were used for subsequent analyses using different bioinformatic tools. Phylogenetic analysis of the generated sequences revealed a high genetic diversity with up to 22 different subtypes, sub-subtypes, CRFs. Up to 15% (22/148) URFs were identified, in addition to rare subtypes such as H, J, and K. At least two amino acid motifs present in the gag gene have been shown to modulate HIV-1 replication, budding, and fitness: the P(T/S)AP and the LYPXnL motifs. Structural analysis revealed the presence of P(T/S)AP in all the 148 sequences with the majority (136/148) bearing the PTAP. Three samples presented a duplication of this motif. The LYPXnL motif was identified in 38 of 148 sequences. There was no clear link between the frequency of these motifs and HIV-1M subtypes. In summary, we confirmed a high genetic diversity of HIV-1M in the DRC. We observed the presence of amino acid motifs important for viral replication and budding even in some rare HIV-1 subtypes. Their impact on viral fitness needs be further evaluated by in vitro studies.

Creation of the HIV-1 antisense gene asp coincided with the emergence of the pandemic group M and is associated with faster disease progression

Despite being first identified more than three decades ago, the antisense gene asp of HIV-1 remains an enigma. asp is present uniquely in pandemic (group M) HIV-1 strains, and it is absent in all non-pandemic (out-of-M) HIV-1 strains and virtually all non-human primate lentiviruses. This suggests that the creation of asp may have contributed to HIV-1 fitness or worldwide spread. It also raises the question of which evolutionary processes were at play in the creation of asp. Here, we show that HIV-1 genomes containing an intact asp gene are associated with faster HIV-1 disease progression. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the creation of a full-length asp gene occurred via the evolution of codon usage in env overlapping asp on the opposite strand. This involved differential use of synonymous codons or conservative amino acid substitution in env that eliminated internal stop codons in asp, and redistribution of synonymous codons in env that minimized the likelihood of new premature stops arising in asp. Nevertheless, the creation of a full-length asp gene reduced the genetic diversity of env. The Luria-Delbruck fluctuation test suggests that the interrupted asp open reading frame (ORF) is the progenitor of the intact ORF, rather than a descendant under random genetic drift. Therefore, the existence of group-M isolates with a truncated asp ORF indicates an incomplete transition process. For the first time, our study links the presence of a full-length asp ORF to faster disease progression, thus warranting further investigation into the cellular processes and molecular mechanisms through which the ASP protein impacts HIV-1 replication, transmission, and pathogenesis.IMPORTANCEOverlapping genes engage in a tug-of-war, constraining each other's evolution. The creation of a new gene overlapping an existing one comes at an evolutionary cost. Thus, its conservation must be advantageous, or it will be lost, especially if the pre-existing gene is essential for the viability of the virus or cell. We found that the creation and conservation of the HIV-1 antisense gene asp occurred through differential use of synonymous codons or conservative amino acid substitutions within the overlapping gene, env. This process did not involve amino acid changes in ENV that benefited its function, but rather it constrained the evolution of ENV. Nonetheless, the creation of asp brought a net selective advantage to HIV-1 because asp is conserved especially among high-prevalence strains. The association between the presence of an intact asp gene and faster HIV-1 disease progression supports that conclusion and warrants further investigation.

Disease-causing human viruses: novelty and legacy

About 270 viruses are known to infect humans. Some of these viruses have been known for centuries, whereas others have recently emerged. During their evolutionary history, humans have moved out of Africa to populate the world. In historical times, human migrations resulted in the displacement of large numbers of people. All these events determined the movement and dispersal of human-infecting viruses. Technological advances have resulted in the characterization of the genetic variability of human viruses, both in extant and in archaeological samples. Field studies investigated the diversity of viruses hosted by other animals. In turn, these advances provided insight into the evolutionary history of human viruses back in time and defined the key events through which they originated and spread.

Analysis of the Origin and Dissemination of HIV-1 Subtype C in Bulgaria

HIV-1 subtype C is the most abundant strain of HIV-1 infections worldwide and was found in the first known patients diagnosed with HIV/AIDS in Bulgaria in 1986. However, there is limited information on the molecular-epidemiological characteristics of this strain in the epidemic of the country. In this study, we analyze the evolutionary history of the introduction and dissemination of HIV-1 subtype C in Bulgaria using global phylogenetic analysis, Bayesian coalescent-based approach, and molecular clock methods. All available samples with HIV-1 subtype C from individuals diagnosed with HIV/AIDS between 1986 and 2017 were analyzed. Men and women were equally represented, and 24.3% of patients reported being infected abroad. The global phylogenetic analysis indicated multiple introductions of HIV-1 subtype C from various countries of the world. The reconstruction of a Bayesian time-scaled phylogenies showed that several Bulgarian strains segregated together in clusters, while others were intermixed in larger clades containing strains isolated from both European and non-European countries. The time-scale of HIV-1 subtype C introductions in Bulgaria demonstrates the early introduction of these viruses in the country. Our in-depth phylogenetic and phylogeographic analyses are compatible with a scenario of multiple early introductions in the country followed by limited local distribution in the subsequent years. HIV-1 subtype C was introduced in the early years of the epidemic, originating from different countries of the world. Due to the comprehensive measures for prevention and control in the early years of the epidemic in Bulgaria, HIV-1 subtype C was not widely disseminated among the general population of the country.

Newly Discovered Archival Data Show Coincidence of a Peak of Sexually Transmitted Diseases with the Early Epicenter of Pandemic HIV-1

To which extent STDs facilitated HIV-1 adaptation to humans, sparking the pandemic, is still unknown. We searched colonial medical records from 1906–1958 for Leopoldville, Belgian Congo, which was the initial epicenter of pandemic HIV-1, compiling counts of treated STD cases in both Africans and Europeans. Almost all Europeans were being treated, while for Africans, generalized treatment started only in 1929. Treated STD counts in Europeans thus reflect STD infection rates more accurately compared to counts in Africans. In Africans, the highest recorded STD treatment incidence was in 1929–1935, declining to low levels in the 1950s. In Europeans, the recorded treatment incidences were highest during the period 1910–1920, far exceeding those in Africans. Europeans were overwhelmingly male and had frequent sexual contact with African females. Consequently, high STD incidence among Europeans must have coincided with high prevalence and incidence in the city’s African population. The data strongly suggest the worst STD period was 1910–1920 for both Africans and Europeans, which coincides with the estimated origin of pandemic HIV-1. Given the strong effect of STD coinfections on HIV transmission, these new data support our hypothesis of a causal effect of STDs on the epidemic emergence of HIV-1.

Elucidation of Early Evolution of HIV-1 Group M in the Congo Basin Using Computational Methods

The Congo Basin region is believed to be the site of the cross-species transmission event that yielded HIV-1 group M (HIV-1M). It is thus likely that the virus has been present and evolving in the region since that cross-species transmission. As HIV-1M was only discovered in the early 1980s, our directly observed record of the epidemic is largely limited to the past four decades. Nevertheless, by exploiting the genetic relatedness of contemporary HIV-1M sequences, phylogenetic methods provide a powerful framework for investigating simultaneously the evolutionary and epidemiologic history of the virus. Such an approach has been taken to find that the currently classified HIV-1 M subtypes and Circulating Recombinant Forms (CRFs) do not give a complete view of HIV-1 diversity. In addition, the currently identified major HIV-1M subtypes were likely genetically predisposed to becoming a major component of the present epidemic, even before the events that resulted in the global epidemic. Further efforts have identified statistically significant hot- and cold-spots of HIV-1M subtypes sequence inheritance in genomic regions of recombinant forms. In this review we provide ours and others recent findings on the emergence and spread of HIV-1M variants in the region, which have provided insights into the early evolution of this virus.

Priority Intervention Targets Identified Using an In-Depth Sampling HIV Molecular Network in a Non-Subtype B Epidemics Area

Molecular network analysis based on the genetic similarity of HIV-1 is increasingly used to guide targeted interventions. Nevertheless, there is a lack of experience regarding molecular network inferences and targeted interventions in combination with epidemiological information in areas with diverse epidemic strains of HIV-1.We collected 2,173 pol sequences covering 84% of the total newly diagnosed HIV-1 infections in Shenyang city, Northeast China, between 2016 and 2018. Molecular networks were constructed using the optimized genetic distance threshold for main subtypes obtained using sensitivity analysis of plausible threshold ranges. The transmission rates (TR) of each large cluster were assessed using Bayesian analyses. Molecular clusters with the characteristics of ≥5 newly diagnosed cases in 2018, high TR, injection drug users (IDUs), and transmitted drug resistance (TDR) were defined as priority clusters. Several HIV-1 subtypes were identified, with a predominance of CRF01_AE (71.0%, 1,542/2,173), followed by CRF07_BC (18.1%, 393/2,173), subtype B (4.5%, 97/2,173), other subtypes (2.6%, 56/2,173), and unique recombinant forms (3.9%, 85/2,173). The overall optimal genetic distance thresholds for CRF01_AE and CRF07_BC were both 0.007 subs/site. For subtype B, it was 0.013 subs/site. 861 (42.4%) sequences of the top three subtypes formed 239 clusters (size: 2-77 sequences), including eight large clusters (size ≥10 sequences). All the eight large clusters had higher TR (median TR = 52.4/100 person-years) than that of the general HIV infections in Shenyang (10.9/100 person-years). A total of ten clusters including 231 individuals were determined as priority clusters for targeted intervention, including eight large clusters (five clusters with≥5 newly diagnosed cases in 2018, one cluster with IDUs, and two clusters with TDR (K103N, Q58E/V179D), one cluster with≥5 newly diagnosed cases in 2018, and one IDUs cluster. In conclusion, a comprehensive analysis combining in-depth sampling HIV-1 molecular networks construction using subtype-specific optimal genetic distance thresholds, and baseline epidemiological information can help to identify the targets of priority intervention in an area epidemic for non-subtype B.

A near full-length HIV-1 genome from 1966 recovered from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissue

With very little direct biological data of HIV-1 from before the 1980s, far-reaching evolutionary and epidemiological inferences regarding the long prediscovery phase of this pandemic are based on extrapolations by phylodynamic models of HIV-1 genomic sequences gathered mostly over recent decades. Here, using a very sensitive multiplex RT-PCR assay, we screened 1,645 formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissue specimens collected for pathology diagnostics in Central Africa between 1958 and 1966. We report the near-complete viral genome in one HIV-1 positive specimen from Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), from 1966 ("DRC66")-a nonrecombinant sister lineage to subtype C that constitutes the oldest HIV-1 near full-length genome recovered to date. Root-to-tip plots showed the DRC66 sequence is not an outlier as would be expected if dating estimates from more recent genomes were systematically biased; and inclusion of the DRC66 sequence in tip-dated BEAST analyses did not significantly alter root and internal node age estimates based on post-1978 HIV-1 sequences. There was larger variation in divergence time estimates among datasets that were subsamples of the available HIV-1 genomes from 1978 to 2014, showing the inherent phylogenetic stochasticity across subsets of the real HIV-1 diversity. Our phylogenetic analyses date the origin of the pandemic lineage of HIV-1 to a time period around the turn of the 20th century (1881 to 1918). In conclusion, this unique archival HIV-1 sequence provides direct genomic insight into HIV-1 in 1960s DRC, and, as an ancient-DNA calibrator, it validates our understanding of HIV-1 evolutionary history.

Divergence dating using mixed effects clock modelling: An application to HIV-1

The need to estimate divergence times in evolutionary histories in the presence of various sources of substitution rate variation has stimulated a rich development of relaxed molecular clock models. Viral evolutionary studies frequently adopt an uncorrelated clock model as a generic relaxed molecular clock process, but this may impose considerable estimation bias if discrete rate variation exists among clades or lineages. For HIV-1 group M, rate variation among subtypes has been shown to result in inconsistencies in time to the most recent common ancestor estimation. Although this calls into question the adequacy of available molecular dating methods, no solution to this problem has been offered so far. Here, we investigate the use of mixed effects molecular clock models, which combine both fixed and random effects in the evolutionary rate, to estimate divergence times. Using simulation, we demonstrate that this model outperforms existing molecular clock models in a Bayesian framework for estimating time-measured phylogenies in the presence of mixed sources of rate variation, while also maintaining good performance in simpler scenarios. By analysing a comprehensive HIV-1 group M complete genome data set we confirm considerable rate variation among subtypes that is not adequately modelled by uncorrelated relaxed clock models. The mixed effects clock model can accommodate this rate variation and results in a time to the most recent common ancestor of HIV-1 group M of 1920 (1915-25), which is only slightly earlier than the uncorrelated relaxed clock estimate for the same data set. The use of complete genome data appears to have a more profound impact than the molecular clock model because it reduces the credible intervals by 50 per cent relative to similar estimates based on short envelope gene sequences.

Neutral Theory and Rapidly Evolving Viral Pathogens

The evolution of viral pathogens is shaped by strong selective forces that are exerted during jumps to new hosts, confrontations with host immune responses and antiviral drugs, and numerous other processes. However, while undeniably strong and frequent, adaptive evolution is largely confined to small parts of information-packed viral genomes, and the majority of observed variation is effectively neutral. The predictions and implications of the neutral theory have proven immensely useful in this context, with applications spanning understanding within-host population structure, tracing the origins and spread of viral pathogens, predicting evolutionary dynamics, and modeling the emergence of drug resistance. We highlight the multiple ways in which the neutral theory has had an impact, which has been accelerated in the age of high-throughput, high-resolution genomics.

The epidemic emergence of HIV: what novel enabling factors were involved?

Humans acquired retroviruses from simians, mainly through bushmeat handling. All epidemically successful HIV groups started to spread in early 20th century, contrasting with the antiquity of T-cell lymphotropic viruses, implying that novel enabling factors were involved in HIV emergence. Here we review the Parenteral Serial Transmission and the Enhanced Heterosexual Transmission hypotheses for the adaptation and early spread of HIV. Epidemic start roughly coincides in time with peak genital ulcer disease in cities, suggesting a major role for sexual transmission. Only ill-adapted and rare HIV groups emerged after approximately 1950, when injections and transfusions attained their maximal levels, suggesting that if parenteral serial transmission was necessary for HIV adaptation, it had to be complemented by sexual transmission for HIV to reach epidemic potential.

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Recent advances in understanding HIV evolution

The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) evolves rapidly owing to the combined activity of error-prone reverse transcriptase, recombination, and short generation times, leading to extensive viral diversity both within and between hosts. This diversity is a major contributing factor in the failure of the immune system to eradicate the virus and has important implications for the development of suitable drugs and vaccines to combat infection. This review will discuss the recent technological advances that have shed light on HIV evolution and will summarise emerging concepts in this field.

Sensitive Next-Generation Sequencing Method Reveals Deep Genetic Diversity of HIV-1 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

As the epidemiological epicenter of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) pandemic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is a reservoir of circulating HIV strains exhibiting high levels of diversity and recombination. In this study, we characterized HIV specimens collected in two rural areas of the DRC between 2001 and 2003 to identify rare strains of HIV. The env gp41 region was sequenced and characterized for 172 HIV-positive specimens. The env sequences were predominantly subtype A (43.02%), but 7 other subtypes (33.14%), 20 circulating recombinant forms (CRFs; 11.63%), and 20 unclassified (11.63%) sequences were also found. Of the rare and unclassified subtypes, 18 specimens were selected for next-generation sequencing (NGS) by a modified HIV-switching mechanism at the 5' end of the RNA template (SMART) method to obtain full-genome sequences. NGS produced 14 new complete genomes, which included pure subtype C (n = 2), D (n = 1), F1 (n = 1), H (n = 3), and J (n = 1) genomes. The two subtype C genomes and one of the subtype H genomes branched basal to their respective subtype branches but had no evidence of recombination. The remaining 6 genomes were complex recombinants of 2 or more subtypes, including subtypes A1, F, G, H, J, and K and unclassified fragments, including one subtype CRF25 isolate, which branched basal to all CRF25 references. Notably, all recombinant subtype H fragments branched basal to the H clade. Spatial-geographical analysis indicated that the diverse sequences identified here did not expand globally. The full-genome and subgenomic sequences identified in our study population significantly increase the documented diversity of the strains involved in the continually evolving HIV-1 pandemic.IMPORTANCE Very little is known about the ancestral HIV-1 strains that founded the global pandemic, and very few complete genome sequences are available from patients in the Congo Basin, where HIV-1 expanded early in the global pandemic. By sequencing a subgenomic fragment of the HIV-1 envelope from study participants in the DRC, we identified rare variants for complete genome sequencing. The basal branching of some of the complete genome sequences that we recovered suggests that these strains are more closely related to ancestral HIV-1 strains than to previously reported strains and is evidence that the local diversification of HIV in the DRC continues to outpace the diversity of global strains decades after the emergence of the pandemic.

Male Circumcision and the Epidemic Emergence of HIV-2 in West Africa

BACKGROUND

Epidemic HIV-2 (groups A and B) emerged in humans circa 1930-40. Its closest ancestors are SIVsmm infecting sooty mangabeys from southwestern Côte d'Ivoire. The earliest large-scale serological surveys of HIV-2 in West Africa (1985-91) show a patchy spread. Côte d'Ivoire and Guinea-Bissau had the highest prevalence rates by then, and phylogeographical analysis suggests they were the earliest epicenters. Wars and parenteral transmission have been hypothesized to have promoted HIV-2 spread. Male circumcision (MC) is known to correlate negatively with HIV-1 prevalence in Africa, but studies examining this issue for HIV-2 are lacking.

METHODS

We reviewed published HIV-2 serosurveys for 30 cities of all West African countries and obtained credible estimates of real prevalence through Bayesian estimation. We estimated past MC rates of 218 West African ethnic groups, based on ethnographic literature and fieldwork. We collected demographic tables specifying the ethnic partition in cities. Uncertainty was incorporated by defining plausible ranges of parameters (e.g. timing of introduction, proportion circumcised). We generated 1,000 sets of past MC rates per city using Latin Hypercube Sampling with different parameter combinations, and explored the correlation between HIV-2 prevalence and estimated MC rate (both logit-transformed) in the 1,000 replicates.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

Our survey reveals that, in the early 20th century, MC was far less common and geographically more variable than nowadays. HIV-2 prevalence in 1985-91 and MC rates in 1950 were negatively correlated (Spearman rho = -0.546, IQR: -0.553--0.546, p≤0.0021). Guinea-Bissau and Côte d'Ivoire cities had markedly lower MC rates. In addition, MC was uncommon in rural southwestern Côte d'Ivoire in 1930.The differential HIV-2 spread in West Africa correlates with different historical MC rates. We suggest HIV-2 only formed early substantial foci in cities with substantial uncircumcised populations. Lack of MC in rural areas exposed to bushmeat may have had a role in successful HIV-2 emergence.

The application of HIV molecular epidemiology to public health

HIV is responsible for one of the largest viral pandemics in human history. Despite a concerted global response for prevention and treatment, the virus persists. Thus, urgent public health action, utilizing novel interventions, is needed to prevent future transmission events, critical to eliminating HIV. For public health planning to prove effective and successful, we need to understand the dynamics of regional epidemics and to intervene appropriately. HIV molecular epidemiology tools as implemented in phylogenetic, phylodynamic and phylogeographic analyses have proven to be powerful tools in public health planning across many studies. Numerous applications with HIV suggest that molecular methods alone or in combination with mathematical modelling can provide inferences about the transmission dynamics, critical epidemiological parameters (prevalence, incidence, effective number of infections, Re, generation times, time between infection and diagnosis), or the spatiotemporal characteristics of epidemics. Molecular tools have been used to assess the impact of an intervention and outbreak investigation which are of great public health relevance. In some settings, molecular sequence data may be more readily available than HIV surveillance data, and can therefore allow for molecular analyses to be conducted more easily. Nonetheless, classic methods have an integral role in monitoring and evaluation of public health programmes, and should supplement emerging techniques from the field of molecular epidemiology. Importantly, molecular epidemiology remains a promising approach in responding to viral diseases.

Molecular clock of HIV-1 envelope genes under early immune selection

Background

The molecular clock hypothesis that genes or proteins evolve at a constant rate is a key tool to reveal phylogenetic relationships among species. Using the molecular clock, we can trace an infection back to transmission using HIV-1 sequences from a single time point. Whether or not a strict molecular clock applies to HIV-1’s early evolution in the presence of immune selection has not yet been fully examined.

Results

We identified molecular clock signatures from 1587 previously published HIV-1 full envelope gene sequences obtained since acute infection in 15 subjects. Each subject’s sequence diversity linearly increased during the first 150 days post infection, with rates ranging from \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$1.54 \times 10^{ - 5}$$\end{document}1.54×10-5 to \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$3.91 \times 10^{ - 5}$$\end{document}3.91×10-5 with a mean of \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$2.69 \times 10^{ - 5}$$\end{document}2.69×10-5 per base per day. The rate of diversification for 12 out of the 15 subjects was comparable to the neutral evolution rate. While temporal diversification was consistent with evolution patterns in the absence of selection, mutations from the founder virus were highly clustered on statistically identified selection sites, which diversified more than 65 times faster than non-selection sites. By mathematically quantifying deviations from the molecular clock under various selection scenarios, we demonstrate that the deviation from a constant clock becomes negligible as multiple escape lineages emerge. The most recent common ancestor of a virus pair from distinct escape lineages is most likely the transmitted founder virus, indicating that HIV-1 molecular dating is feasible even after the founder viruses are no longer detectable.

Conclusions

The ability of HIV-1 to escape from immune surveillance in many different directions is the driving force of molecular clock persistence. This finding advances our understanding of the robustness of HIV-1’s molecular clock under immune selection, implying the potential for molecular dating.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12977-016-0269-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Immunogenetic characterization of a captive colony of sooty mangabeys (Cercocebus atys) used for SIV research

BACKGROUND

African non-human primates are SIV natural hosts and do not develop disease following infection. Understanding disease avoidance mechanisms in these species is important for HIV vaccine development. The largest captive population of sooty mangabeys, a SIV natural host species, resides at the Yerkes National Primate Research Center.

METHODS

Thirteen primer sets that amplify polymorphic microsatellite loci within the MHC region were used to genotype 144 animals. Immunogenetic Management Software (IMS) was used to identify MHC haplotypes and organize data.

RESULTS

Seventy-three haplotypes were identified. Limited haplotype diversity was observed in this population with 88.2% of included animals carrying one of 18 haplotypes. Differences in haplotype frequency were observed between SIV (+) and SIV (-) populations.

CONCLUSIONS

We have developed a novel tool for others to use in the analysis of the role of the MHC in a natural host non-human primate model species used for SIV research.

On the early dynamics and spread of HIV-1

Until recently, the origin of the HIV-1 group M pandemic largely remained a scientific mystery. The use of comprehensive evolutionary analyses has revealed a unique story regarding viral migration, starting in the 1920s in Kinshasa, and the social and infrastructural changes associated with the early spread of this deadly virus.

HIV epidemiology. The early spread and epidemic ignition of HIV-1 in human populations

Thirty years after the discovery of HIV-1, the early transmission, dissemination, and establishment of the virus in human populations remain unclear. Using statistical approaches applied to HIV-1 sequence data from central Africa, we show that from the 1920s Kinshasa (in what is now the Democratic Republic of Congo) was the focus of early transmission and the source of pre-1960 pandemic viruses elsewhere. Location and dating estimates were validated using the earliest HIV-1 archival sample, also from Kinshasa. The epidemic histories of HIV-1 group M and nonpandemic group O were similar until ~1960, after which group M underwent an epidemiological transition and outpaced regional population growth. Our results reconstruct the early dynamics of HIV-1 and emphasize the role of social changes and transport networks in the establishment of this virus in human populations.

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) subtype B epidemic in Panama is mainly driven by dissemination of country-specific clades

The Human immunodeficiency virus type-1 (HIV-1) subtype B is the most predominant clade in Central America; but information about the evolutionary history of this virus in this geographic region is scarce. In this study, we reconstructed the spatiotemporal and population dynamics of the HIV-1 subtype B epidemic in Panama. A total of 761 HIV-1 subtype B pol sequences obtained in Panama between 2004 and 2013 were combined with subtype B pol sequences from the Americas and Europe. Maximum Likelihood phylogenetic analyses revealed that HIV-1 subtype B infections in Panama derived from the dissemination of multiple founder viruses. Most Panamanian subtype B viruses (94.5%) belong to the pandemic viral strain proposed as originated in the US, whereas others (5.5%) were intermixed among non-pandemic Caribbean strains. The bulk (76.6%) of subtype B sequences from Panama grouped within 12 country-specific clades that were not detected in other Central American countries. Bayesian coalescent-based analyses suggest that most Panamanian clades probably originated between the early 1970s and the early 1980s. The root location of major Panamanian clades was traced to the most densely populated districts of Panama province. Major Panamanian clades appear to have experienced one or two periods of exponential growth of variable duration between the 1970s and the 2000s, with median growth rates from 0.2 to 0.4 year⁻¹. Thus, the HIV-1 subtype B epidemic in Panama is driven by the expansion of local viral strains that were introduced from the Caribbean and other American countries at an early stage of the AIDS pandemic.

Intra-host evolutionary rates in HIV-1C env and gag during primary infection

BACKGROUND

HIV-1 nucleotide substitution rates are central for understanding the evolution of HIV-1. Their accurate estimation is critical for analysis of viral dynamics, identification of divergence time of HIV variants, inference of HIV transmission clusters, and modeling of viral evolution.

METHODS

Intra-patient nucleotide substitution rates in HIV-1C gag and env gp120 V1C5 were analyzed in a longitudinal cohort of 32 individuals infected with a single viral variant. Viral quasispecies were derived by single genome amplification/sequencing from serially sampled blood specimens collected at median (IQR) of 5 (4-6) times per subject from enrollment (during Fiebig stages II to V) over a median (IQR) of 417 (351-471) days post-seroconversion (p/s). HIV-1C evolutionary rates were estimated by BEAST v.1.7 using a relaxed lognormal molecular clock model. The effect of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on substitution rates in gag and env was assessed in a subset of six individuals who started ARV therapy during the follow-up period.

RESULTS

During primary HIV-1C infection, the intra-patient substitution rates were estimated at a median (IQR) of 5.22E-03 (3.28E-03-7.55E-03) substitutions per site per year of infection within gag, and 1.58E-02 (9.99E-03-2.04E-02) substitutions per site per year within env gp120 V1C5. The substitution rates in env gp120 V1C5 were higher than in gag (p<0.001, Wilcoxon signed rank test). The median (IQR) relative rates of evolution at codon positions 1, 2, and 3 were 0.73 (0.48-0.84), 0.67 (0.52-0.86), and 1.54 (1.21-1.71) in gag, and 1.01 (0.86-1.15), 1.05 (0.99-1.21), and 0.86 (0.67-0.94) in env gp120 V1C5, respectively. A first to the third position codon rate ratio >1.0 within env was found in 25 (78.1%) cases, but only in 4 (12.5%) cases in gag, while a second to the third position codon rate ratio >1.0 in env was observed in 26 (81.3%) cases, but in gag only in 2 (6.3%) cases (p<0.001 for both comparisons, Fisher's exact test). No ART effect on substitution rates in gag and env was found, at least within the first 3-4 months after ART initiation. Individuals with early viral set point ⩾4.0 log10 copies/ml had higher substitution rates in env gp120 V1C5 (median (IQR) 1.88E-02 (1.54E-02-2.46E-02) vs. 1.04E (7.24E-03-1.55E-02) substitutions per site per year; p=0.017, Mann-Whitney sum rank test), while individuals with early viral set point ⩾3.0 log10 copies/ml had higher substitution rates in gag (median (IQR) 5.66E-03 (3.45E-03-7.94E-03) vs. 1.78E-03 (4.57E-04-5.15E-03); p=0.028; Mann-Whitney sum rank test).

CONCLUSIONS

The results suggest that in primary HIV-1C infection, (1) intra-host evolutionary rates in env gp120 V1C5 are about 3-fold higher than in gag; (2) selection pressure in env is more frequent than in gag; (3) initiation of ART does not change substitution rates in HIV-1C env or gag, at least within the first 3-4 months after starting ART; and (4) intra-host evolutionary rates in gag and env gp120 V1C5 are higher in individuals with elevated levels of early viral set point.

A single early introduction of HIV-1 subtype B into Central America accounts for most current cases

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) variants show considerable geographical separation across the world, but there is limited information from Central America. We provide the first detailed investigation of the genetic diversity and molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 in six Central American countries. Phylogenetic analysis was performed on 625 HIV-1 pol gene sequences collected between 2002 and 2010 in Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and Belize. Published sequences from neighboring countries (n = 57) and the rest of the world (n = 740) were included as controls. Maximum likelihood methods were used to explore phylogenetic relationships. Bayesian coalescence-based methods were used to time HIV-1 introductions. Nearly all (98.9%) Central American sequences were of subtype B. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that 437 (70%) sequences clustered within five significantly supported monophyletic clades formed essentially by Central American sequences. One clade contained 386 (62%) sequences from all six countries; the other four clades were smaller and more country specific, suggesting discrete subepidemics. The existence of one large well-supported Central American clade provides evidence that a single introduction of HIV-1 subtype B in Central America accounts for most current cases. An introduction during the early phase of the HIV-1 pandemic may explain its epidemiological success. Moreover, the smaller clades suggest a subsequent regional spread related to specific transmission networks within each country.

Spatial accessibility and the spread of HIV-1 subtypes and recombinants

OBJECTIVE/DESIGN

The global spread of HIV-1 main group (group M) has resulted in differential distributions of subtypes and recombinants, with the greatest diversity being found in sub-Saharan Africa. The explanations for the current subtype distribution patterns are likely multifactorial, but the promotion of human migrations and movements through transportation link availability and quality, summarized through 'accessibility', have been consistently cited as strong drivers. We sought to address the question of whether accessibility has been a significant factor in HIV-1 spread across mainland Africa through spatial analyses of molecular epidemiology, transport network and land cover data.

METHODS

The distribution of HIV-1 subtypes and recombinants in sub-Saharan Africa for the period 1998-2008 was mapped using molecular epidemiology data at a finer level of detail than ever before. Moreover, hypotheses on the role of distance, road network structure and accessibility in explaining the patterns seen were tested using spatial datasets representing African transport infrastructure, land cover and an accessibility model of landscape travel speed.

RESULTS

Coherent spatial patterns in HIV-1 subtype distributions across the continent exist, and a substantial proportion of the variance in the distribution and diversity pattern seen can be explained by variations in regional spatial accessibility.

CONCLUSION

The study confirms quantitatively the influence of transport infrastructure on HIV-1 spread within Africa, presents an approach for examining potential future impacts of road development projects and, more generally, highlights the importance of accessibility in the spread of communicable diseases.

Enhanced heterosexual transmission hypothesis for the origin of pandemic HIV-1

HIV-1 M originated from SIVcpz endemic in chimpanzees from southeast Cameroon or neighboring areas, and it started to spread in the early 20th century. Here we examine the factors that may have contributed to simian-to-human transmission, local transmission between humans, and export to a city. The region had intense ape hunting, social disruption, commercial sex work, STDs, and traffic to/from Kinshasa in the period 1899–1923. Injection treatments increased sharply around 1930; however, their frequency among local patients was far lower than among modern groups experiencing parenteral HIV-1 outbreaks. Recent molecular datings of HIV-1 M fit better the period of maximal resource exploitation and trade links than the period of high injection intensity. We conclude that although local parenteral outbreaks might have occurred, these are unlikely to have caused massive transmission. World War I led to additional, and hitherto unrecognized, risks of HIV-1 emergence. We propose an Enhanced Heterosexual Transmission Hypothesis for the origin of HIV-1 M, featuring at the time and place of its origin a coincidence of favorable co-factors (ape hunting, social disruption, STDs, and mobility) for both cross-species transmission and heterosexual spread. Our hypothesis does not exclude a role for parenteral transmission in the initial viral adaptation.

Genetic diversity and molecular epidemiology of HIV transmission

The high genetic diversity of HIV is one of its most significant features, as it has consequences in global distribution, vaccine design, therapy success, disease progression, transmissibility and viral load testing. Studying HIV diversity helps to understand its origins, migration patterns, current distribution and transmission events. New advances in sequencing technologies based on the parallel acquisition of data are now used to characterize within-host and population processes in depth. Additionally, we have seen similar advances in statistical methods designed to model the past history of lineages (the phylodynamic framework) to ultimately gain better insights into the evolutionary history of HIV. We can, for example, estimate population size changes, lineage dispersion over geographic areas and epidemiological parameters solely from sequence data. In this article, we review some of the evolutionary approaches used to study transmission patterns and processes in HIV and the insights gained from such studies.

The evolution of HIV: inferences using phylogenetics

Molecular phylogenetics has revolutionized the study of not only evolution but also disparate fields such as genomics, bioinformatics, epidemiology, ecology, microbiology, molecular biology and biochemistry. Particularly significant are its achievements in population genetics as a result of the development of coalescent theory, which have contributed to more accurate model-based parameter estimation and explicit hypothesis testing. The study of the evolution of many microorganisms, and HIV in particular, have benefited from these new methodologies. HIV is well suited for such sophisticated population analyses because of its large population sizes, short generation times, high substitution rates and relatively small genomes. All these factors make HIV an ideal and fascinating model to study molecular evolution in real time. Here we review the significant advances made in HIV evolution through the application of phylogenetic approaches. We first examine the relative roles of mutation and recombination on the molecular evolution of HIV and its adaptive response to drug therapy and tissue allocation. We then review some of the fundamental questions in HIV evolution in relation to its origin and diversification and describe some of the insights gained using phylogenies. Finally, we show how phylogenetic analysis has advanced our knowledge of HIV dynamics (i.e., phylodynamics).

The origin and diversity of the HIV-1 pandemic

This review examines the enormous progress that has been made in the past decade in understanding the origin of HIV, HIV genetic variability, and the impact of global HIV diversity on the pandemic. Multiple zoonotic transmissions of simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) have resulted in different HIV lineages in humans. In addition, the high mutation and recombination rates during viral replication result in a great genetic variability of HIV within individuals, as well as within populations, upon which evolutionary selection pressures act. The global HIV pandemic is examined in the context of HIV evolution, and the global diversity of HIV subtypes and recombinants is discussed in detail. Finally, the impact of HIV diversity on pathogenesis, transmission, diagnosis, treatment, the immune response, and vaccine development is reviewed.

Human leukocyte antigen class I haplotypes of human immunodeficiency virus-1-infected persons on Likoma Island, Malawi

Human leukocyte antigen (HLA) allele frequencies vary between different human populations, with implications both for the evolutionary pressures shaping those populations as well as for the outcome of new infectious epidemics. We defined HLA class I types in a well-described cohort of persons on Likoma Island in Malawi, a population for which there are lacking data on allelic frequencies. The profile of HLA frequencies was similar but phylogenetically distinct from those of other sub-Saharan African populations in neighboring regions. The most common A alleles included A30, A23, A28 (A*68), and A2, and the most common B alleles included B15 (group), B53, B58, and B44. Notably, the frequency of B53, which is protective against malaria, was similar to that of other malaria-endemic African countries, and higher than that in countries with less malaria. This is the first reported significant dataset of HLA class I allelic frequencies in Malawians.

High-resolution phylogenetics and phylogeography of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 subtype C epidemic in South America

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 subtype C (HIV-1C) represents 30-65% of HIV infections in southern Brazil, and isolated cases of HIV-1C infection have also been reported in Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and Venezuela. Phylogenetic studies have suggested that the Brazilian subtype C epidemic was initiated by the introduction of closely related strains. Nevertheless, because of sampling limitations, the point of entry and the timing of subtype C introduction into Brazil, as well as the origin of the founder lineage, remain controversial. The present study investigated the origin, spread and phylogeography of HIV-1C in South America. Phylogenetic analysis showed a well-supported monophyletic clade including all available strains from Brazil, Uruguay and Argentina. Only one lineage from Venezuela was unrelated to the epidemic involving the other three countries. Molecular clock and likelihood mapping analysis showed that HIV-1C introduction in Brazil dated back to the period 1960-1970, much earlier than previously thought, and was followed by a nearly simultaneous star-like outburst of viral lineages, indicating a subsequent rapid spread. Phylogeographic patterns suggested Paraná or Rio Grande do Sul as the possible entrance points of subtype C and an asymmetrical gene flow from Paraná to Sao Paulo, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, as well as from Rio Grande do Sul to Sao Paulo fostered by the strong inter-connectivity between population centres in southern Brazil. The study illustrates how coupling phylogeography inference with geographical information system data is critical to understand the origin and dissemination of viral pathogens and potentially predict their future spread.

Population dynamics of HIV-1 subtype B in a cohort of men-having-sex-with-men in Rome, Italy

A recent increase in HIV diagnoses among men-having-sex-with-men (MSM) has been shown by surveillance data from Europe and Italy, and new approaches to inferring viral population dynamics from heterochronously sampled gene sequences have been developed. The aim of this study was to reconstruct the epidemiological history of HIV-1 subtype B in a homogeneous group of Italian MSM using a coalescent-based Bayesian framework. A total of 125 HIV-1 subtype B pol sequences were analyzed using Bayesian methods and a relaxed molecular clock to reconstruct their dated phylogeny and estimate population dynamics. At least 10 epidemiological clusters of 3-9 isolates were identified: half including the largest clades originated in the early 1990s and the other half radiated from 1999. Demographic analysis showed that the HIV epidemic grew in accordance with a logistic model characterized by a rapid exponential increase in the effective number of infections (r = 1.54 year) starting from the early 1980s and reaching a plateau 10 years later. Our data suggest that the HIV B epidemic entered our MSM population through multiple transmission chains about 20 years later than in other Western European country. Epidemiological clusters originating in the early 2000s suggest a recent re-emergence of HIV in Italian MSM.

Constraints on HIV-1 diversity from protein structure

The high rate of HIV-1 evolution contributes to immune escape, enables the virus to escape drug therapy, and may underlie the difficulty of producing an effective vaccine. Identifying constraints on HIV evolution is therefore of prime importance. To investigate this problem, we examined the relationships between sequence diversity, selection, and protein structure. We found that while there was an increase in sequence diversity over time, this variation had a tendency to be limited to specific structural regions. When individual sites were analyzed, there was, in contrast, substantial and widespread evolutionary constraint over gag and env. This constraint was present even in the highly variable envelope proteins. The evolutionary significance of an individual site is indicated by the change in selection pressure along the time course: increasing entropy indicates that the site is evolving predominantly in a more "clock"-like manner, low entropy values with no increase indicate a high degree of constraint, and high entropy values indicate a lack of constraint. Few sites display high degrees of turnover. Mapping these sites onto the three-dimensional protein structure, we found a significant difference between evolutionary rates for regions buried in the core of the protein and those on the surface. This constraint did not change over the time period analyzed and was not subtype dependent, as similar results were found for subtypes B and C. This link between sequence and structure not only demonstrates the limits of recent HIV-1 evolution but also highlights the origins of evolutionary constraint on viral change.

Human immunodeficiency virus type-1 group M quasispecies evolution: diversity and divergence in patients co-infected with active tuberculosis

The evolution of intra-host human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) quasispecies prior and after treating active tuberculosis (TB) with chemotherapy in HIV-1/TB patients was assessed. Two time points HIV-1 quasispecies were evaluated by comparing HIV-1-infected patients with active tuberculosis (HIV-1/TB) and HIV-1-infected patients without tuberculosis (HIV-1/non-TB). Plasma samples were obtained from the Frankfurt HIV cohort, and HIV-1 RNA was isolated. C2V5 env was amplified by PCR and molecular cloning was performed. Eight to twenty-five clones were sequenced from each patient. Various phylogenetic analyses were performed. We found a significant increase in diversity and divergence in HIV-1/TB compared to the HIV-1/non-TB. For HIV-1/TB, the average rate of evolution of C2V5 env was higher than previous reports (2.4 × 10(-4) substitution/site/day). Two groups of HIV-1/TB were observed based on the rate of HIV-1 evolution and coreceptor usage: A fast evolving R5-tropic dominating group and a relatively slowly evolving X4 group. The results demonstrated that active TB has an impact on HIV-1 viral diversity and divergence over time. The influence of active TB on longitudinal evolution of HIV-1 may be predominant for R5 viruses.

The origins of HIV and implications for the global epidemic

HIV type 1 (HIV-1) and type 2 (HIV-2) are the result of several cross-species transmissions from primates to humans. Recently, the ancestral strains of HIV-1 groups M and N were shown to still persist in today's wild chimpanzee populations (Pan troglodytes troglodytes) in south Cameroon. Lately, HIV-1 group O-related viruses have been identified in western gorillas (Gorilla gorilla), called SIVgor, but chimpanzees are most likely the original reservoir of this simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) infection. HIV-2 is the result of at least eight distinct cross-species transmissions of SIV from sooty mangabeys (Cercocebus atys) in West Africa. Although the origin of HIV-1 and HIV-2 became clearer, some important questions concerning pathogenicity and epidemic spread of certain HIV/SIV variants need to be further elucidated. Because humans are still exposed to a plethora of primate lentiviruses through hunting and handling of primate bushmeat, the possibility of additional zoonotic transfers of primate lentiviruses from other primates must be considered.

High GUD incidence in the early 20 century created a particularly permissive time window for the origin and initial spread of epidemic HIV strains

The processes that permitted a few SIV strains to emerge epidemically as HIV groups remain elusive. Paradigmatic theories propose factors that may have facilitated adaptation to the human host (e.g., unsafe injections), none of which provide a coherent explanation for the timing, geographical origin, and scarcity of epidemic HIV strains. Our updated molecular clock analyses established relatively narrow time intervals (roughly 1880-1940) for major SIV transfers to humans. Factors that could favor HIV emergence in this time frame may have been genital ulcer disease (GUD), resulting in high HIV-1 transmissibility (4-43%), largely exceeding parenteral transmissibility; lack of male circumcision increasing male HIV infection risk; and gender-skewed city growth increasing sexual promiscuity. We surveyed colonial medical literature reporting incidences of GUD for the relevant regions, concentrating on cities, suffering less reporting biases than rural areas. Coinciding in time with the origin of the major HIV groups, colonial cities showed intense GUD outbreaks with incidences 1.5-2.5 orders of magnitude higher than in mid 20(th) century. We surveyed ethnographic literature, and concluded that male circumcision frequencies were lower in early 20(th) century than nowadays, with low rates correlating spatially with the emergence of HIV groups. We developed computer simulations to model the early spread of HIV-1 group M in Kinshasa before, during and after the estimated origin of the virus, using parameters derived from the colonial literature. These confirmed that the early 20(th) century was particularly permissive for the emergence of HIV by heterosexual transmission. The strongest potential facilitating factor was high GUD levels. Remarkably, the direct effects of city population size and circumcision frequency seemed relatively small. Our results suggest that intense GUD in promiscuous urban communities was the main factor driving HIV emergence. Low circumcision rates may have played a role, probably by their indirect effects on GUD.

Heterogeneity and penetration of HIV-1 non-subtype B viruses in an Italian province: public health implications

This study assessed changes in prevalence and distribution of HIV-1 non-subtype B viruses in Italian and immigrant patients over two decades in a province in Italy. All HIV-positive patients who underwent genotypic resistance testing were selected. Prevalence of non-subtype B viruses in 3-year periods was calculated. All sequences of non-subtype B and those provided by REGA as unassigned were analysed for phylogenetic relationships. In total, 250/1563 (16%) individuals were infected with a non-subtype B virus. Prevalence increased over time, reaching a peak (31.5%) in 2004-2006. In Italian patients, the most frequent subtypes were B (92.5%) and F1 (4%). F1 subtype was also prevalent in patients from South America (13.6%); in patients of African origin, CRF02_AG (54.9%) and G (12.3%) were the most frequent. HIV-1 non-subtype B infections in Italians were mostly found in patients who acquired HIV sexually. A phylogenetic relationship between F subtypes in Italian and representative HIV-1 sequences from Brazil was found. C subtypes in Italians were phylogenetically related to subtypes circulating in Brazil. Inter-subtype recombinants were also found in the latest years. The HIV-1 epidemic in Brescia province evolved to the point where about 1/3 patients recently diagnosed harboured non-B HIV subtypes. The distribution of HIV-1 non-B subtypes in Italian patients resembled that in South American patients and phylogenetic relatedness between some Italian and South American HIV-1 strains was found. The possible epidemiological link between these two populations would have been missed by looking only at risk factors for HIV acquisition declared by patients. The evidence of inter-subtype recombinants points to significant genetic assortment. Overall our results support phylogenetic analysis as a tool for epidemiological investigation in order to guide targeted prevention strategies.

The evolutionary rate dynamically tracks changes in HIV-1 epidemics: application of a simple method for optimizing the evolutionary rate in phylogenetic trees with longitudinal data

Large-sequence datasets provide an opportunity to investigate the dynamics of pathogen epidemics. Thus, a fast method to estimate the evolutionary rate from large and numerous phylogenetic trees becomes necessary. Based on minimizing tip height variances, we optimize the root in a given phylogenetic tree to estimate the most homogenous evolutionary rate between samples from at least two different time points. Simulations showed that the method had no bias in the estimation of evolutionary rates and that it was robust to tree rooting and topological errors. We show that the evolutionary rates of HIV-1 subtype B and C epidemics have changed over time, with the rate of evolution inversely correlated to the rate of virus spread. For subtype B, the evolutionary rate slowed down and tracked the start of the HAART era in 1996. Subtype C in Ethiopia showed an increase in the evolutionary rate when the prevalence increase markedly slowed down in 1995. Thus, we show that the evolutionary rate of HIV-1 on the population level dynamically tracks epidemic events.

Quantifying differences in the tempo of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 subtype evolution

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) genetic diversity, due to its high evolutionary rate, has long been identified as a main cause of problems in the development of an efficient HIV-1 vaccine. However, little is known about differences in evolutionary rate between different subtypes. In this study, we collected representative samples of the main epidemic subtypes and circulating recombinant forms (CRFs), namely, sub-subtype A1, subtypes B, C, D, and G, and CRFs 01_AE and 02_AG. We analyzed separate data sets for pol and env. We performed a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo relaxed-clock phylogenetic analysis and applied a codon model to the resulting phylogenetic trees to estimate nonsynonymous (dN) and synonymous (dS) rates along each and every branch. We found important differences in the evolutionary rates of the different subtypes. These are due to differences not only in the dN rate but also in the dS rate, varying in roughly similar ways, indicating that these differences are caused by both different selective pressures (for dN rate) and the replication dynamics (for dS rate) (i.e., mutation rate or generation time) of the strains. CRF02_AG and subtype G had higher rates, while subtype D had lower dN and dS rates than the other subtypes. The dN/dS ratio estimates were also different, especially for the env gene, with subtype G showing the lowest dN/dS ratio of all subtypes.

Spatial phylodynamics of HIV-1 epidemic emergence in east Africa

DESIGN

We sought to investigate the evolutionary and historical reasons for the different epidemiological patterns of HIV-1 in the early epidemic. In order to characterize the demographic history of HIV-1 subtypes A and D in east Africa, we examined molecular epidemiology, geographical and historical data.

METHODOLOGY

We employed high-resolution phylodynamics to investigate the introduction of HIV-1A and D into east Africa, the geographic trends of viral spread, and the demographic growth of each subtype. We also used geographic information system data to investigate human migration trends, population growth, and human mobility.

RESULTS

HIV-1A and D were introduced into east Africa after 1950 and spread exponentially during the 1970s, concurrent with eastward expansion. Spatiotemporal data failed to explain the establishment and spread of HIV based on urban population growth and migration. The low prevalence of the virus in the Democratic Republic of Congo before and after the emergence of the pandemic was, however, consistent with regional accessibility data, highlighting the difficulty in travel between major population centers in central Africa. In contrast, the strong interconnectivity between population centers across the east African region since colonial times has likely fostered the rapid growth of the epidemic in this locale.

CONCLUSION

This study illustrates how phylodynamic analysis of pathogens informed by geospatial data can provide a more holistic and evidence-based interpretation of past epidemics. We advocate that this 'landscape phylodynamics' approach has the potential to provide a framework both to understand epidemics' spread and to design optimal intervention strategies.

Genetic and temporal dynamics of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 CRF07_BC in Xinjiang, China

To explore the temporal genetic variation of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 CRF07_BC and reconstruct its epidemic in Xinjiang, China, we studied 216 C2–V4 fragments of env genes sampled from 1996 to 2008. Phylogenetic analysis indicates that the viruses prevailing in Xinjiang form a large monophyletic cluster and may have originated from a common ancestor. The epidemic in Xinjiang was probably established around 1995 (95 % confidence interval, 1994–1996). We noted an increased diversity of CRF07_BC over time, with a rapid evolutionary rate we estimated to be 8.3×10−3 substitutions per site per year in the env gene. After 5–6 years of the epidemic (1997–2002), the transmission rate of CRF07_BC in Xinjiang slowed down, although CRF07_BC infection remained at a high prevalence.

Dating the age of the SIV lineages that gave rise to HIV-1 and HIV-2

Great strides have been made in understanding the evolutionary history of simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) and the zoonoses that gave rise to HIV-1 and HIV-2. What remains unknown is how long these SIVs had been circulating in non-human primates before the transmissions to humans. Here, we use relaxed molecular clock dating techniques to estimate the time of most recent common ancestor for the SIVs infecting chimpanzees and sooty mangabeys, the reservoirs of HIV-1 and HIV-2, respectively. The date of the most recent common ancestor of SIV in chimpanzees is estimated to be 1492 (1266–1685), and the date in sooty mangabeys is estimated to be 1809 (1729–1875). Notably, we demonstrate that SIV sequences sampled from sooty mangabeys possess sufficient clock-like signal to calibrate a molecular clock; despite the differences in host biology and viral dynamics, the rate of evolution of SIV in sooty mangabeys is indistinguishable from that of its human counterpart, HIV-2. We also estimate the ages of the HIV-2 human-to-human transmissible lineages and provide the first age estimate for HIV-1 group N at 1963 (1948–1977). Comparisons between the SIV most recent common ancestor dates and those of the HIV lineages suggest a difference on the order of only hundreds of years. Our results suggest either that SIV is a surprisingly young lentiviral lineage or that SIV and, perhaps, HIV dating estimates are seriously compromised by unaccounted-for biases.

HIV/AIDS continues to be a major health problem worldwide. An understanding of the evolution of HIV in humans may be greatly improved by detailed knowledge of its predecessor, simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV), in non-human primates. While HIV causes AIDS in humans, SIV generally produces a benign infection in its natural hosts. This avirulence is often attributed to coevolution between the virus and its host, possibly due to codivergence over millions of years. Here, we provide a temporal reference for evolution of SIV in its natural primate hosts. Using state-of-the-art molecular clock dating techniques, we estimate the time of most recent common ancestor for SIV in sooty mangabeys and chimpanzees at 1809 (1729–1875) and 1492 (1266–1685), respectively. These ages indicate that SIV may have infected these natural hosts for only hundreds of years before giving rise to HIV. This short duration suggests that viral–host coevolution over millions of years is not a likely explanation for the widespread avirulence of SIV. Finally, despite differences between SIV and HIV in host biology and viral pathogenicity, we have found clear and direct evidence that SIV evolves at a rapid rate in its natural hosts, an evolutionary rate that is indistinguishable from that of HIV in humans.

Estimating the date of origin of an HIV-1 circulating recombinant form

HIV is capable of frequent genetic exchange through recombination. Despite the pandemic spread of HIV-1 recombinants, their times of origin are not well understood. We investigate the epidemic history of a HIV-1 circulating recombinant form (CRF) by estimating the time of the recombination event that lead to the emergence of CRF33_01B, a recently described recombinant descended from CRF01_AE and subtype B. The gag, pol and env genes were analyzed using a combined coalescent and relaxed molecular clock model, implemented in a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo framework. Using linked genealogical trees we calculated the time interval between the common ancestor of CRF33_01B and the ancestors it shares with closely related parental lineages. The recombination event that generated CRF33_01B (t(rec)) occurred sometime between 1991 and 1993, suggesting that recombination is common in the early evolutionary history of HIV-1. The proof-of-concept approach provides a new tool for the investigation of HIV molecular epidemiology and evolution.

Timing and evolution of the most recent common ancestor of the Korean clade HIV subtype B based on nef and vif sequences

Molecular phylogenetic studies of the HIV-1 isolated from Koreans have suggested the presence of the so-called "Korean clade", which can be defined as a cluster free of foreign isolates. The Korean clade accounts for more than 60% of Korean isolates and exerts characteristic amino acid sequences. Thus, it is merited to estimate when this Korean clade first emerged in order to understand the evolutionary pattern of the Korean clade. We analyzed and reconstructed the most recent common ancestor (MRCA) sequences from nef (n=229) and vif (n=179) Korean clade sequences. Linear regression analyses of sequence divergence estimates were plotted against sampling years to infer the year in which there was zero divergence from the MRCA sequences. MRCA sequences suggested the Korean clade was first emerged around 1984, before the first detection of HIV-1 in Korea in 1985. Further studies on synonymous and nonsynonymous substitution rates suggested positive selection event for the Korean clade, while other subtype B had undergone negative to neutral evolution.

Direct evidence of extensive diversity of HIV-1 in Kinshasa by 1960

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) sequences that pre-date the recognition of AIDS are critical to defining the time of origin and the timescale of virus evolution. A viral sequence from 1959 (ZR59) is the oldest known HIV-1 infection. Other historically documented sequences, important calibration points to convert evolutionary distance into time, are lacking, however; ZR59 is the only one sampled before 1976. Here we report the amplification and characterization of viral sequences from a Bouin's-fixed paraffin-embedded lymph node biopsy specimen obtained in 1960 from an adult female in Léopoldville, Belgian Congo (now Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)), and we use them to conduct the first comparative evolutionary genetic study of early pre-AIDS epidemic HIV-1 group M viruses. Phylogenetic analyses position this viral sequence (DRC60) closest to the ancestral node of subtype A (excluding A2). Relaxed molecular clock analyses incorporating DRC60 and ZR59 date the most recent common ancestor of the M group to near the beginning of the twentieth century. The sizeable genetic distance between DRC60 and ZR59 directly demonstrates that diversification of HIV-1 in west-central Africa occurred long before the recognized AIDS pandemic. The recovery of viral gene sequences from decades-old paraffin-embedded tissues opens the door to a detailed palaeovirological investigation of the evolutionary history of HIV-1 that is not accessible by other methods.

[Genetic diversity and phylogeographic distribution of SIV: how to understand the origin of HIV]

Emergence of human immunodeficiency viruses HIV-1 and HIV-2 results from interspecies transmission from simian viruses SIV. SIVcpzPtt infecting chimpanzees, and from which the HIV-1 (subgroups M and N) is derived is still found in the Pan troglodytes troglodytes population of south Cameroon chimpanzees. The ancestor of HIV-1 group O, is found in the Gorilla residing in Western Africa, but chimpanzees are in fact the initial reservoir of the SIV viruses SIVgor, and it is still unclear whether the group O HIV-1 has been transmitted to humans by gorillas and/or chimpanzees. At least eight interspecies transmissions between and humans implicating SIVsmm (from sooty mangabey monkeys) have occurred, corresponding to the eight VIH-2 groups. Since habits of hunting and meat preparation in the bush still persistently expose humans in Africa to SIV infection, new interspecies transmission of these viruses remains a possibility.

[HIV genetic diversity and its consequences]

Human immunodeficiency viruses HIV-1 and HIV-2 are the results of multi-interspecies transmissions from simian virus to humans. HIV-1 viruses are very divergent and are classified in three groups: M, N and O. The group M is subdivided in nine subtypes and numerous Circulating Recombinant Forms. In 1996, protease inhibitors and HAART disposal have modified the prognostic of the HIV infection. However, one of the major problems is the emergence of antiretroviral resistance. A major advance from the last year is the access to antiretroviral in resources limited countries. On the other hand, the development of a vaccine is today hypothetic.