Recent collapse of crop belts and declining diversity of US agriculture since 1840

Crop rotational diversity can mitigate climate-induced grain yield losses

Diversified crop rotations have been suggested to reduce grain yield losses from the adverse climatic conditions increasingly common under climate change. Nevertheless, the potential for climate change adaptation of different crop rotational diversity (CRD) remains undetermined. We quantified how climatic conditions affect small grain and maize yields under different CRDs in 32 long-term (10-63 years) field experiments across Europe and North America. Species-diverse and functionally rich rotations more than compensated yield losses from anomalous warm conditions, long and warm dry spells, as well as from anomalous wet (for small grains) or dry (for maize) conditions. Adding a single functional group or crop species to monocultures counteracted yield losses from substantial changes in climatic conditions. The benefits of a further increase in CRD are comparable with those of improved climatic conditions. For instance, the maize yield benefits of adding three crop species to monocultures under detrimental climatic conditions exceeded the average yield of monocultures by up to 553 kg/ha under non-detrimental climatic conditions. Increased crop functional richness improved yields under high temperature, irrespective of precipitation. Conversely, yield benefits peaked at between two and four crop species in the rotation, depending on climatic conditions and crop, and declined at higher species diversity. Thus, crop species diversity could be adjusted to maximize yield benefits. Diversifying rotations with functionally distinct crops is an adaptation of cropping systems to global warming and changes in precipitation.

Warmer temperatures trigger insecticide-associated pest outbreaks

BACKGROUND

Rising global temperatures are associated with emerging insect pests, reflecting earlier and longer insect activity, faster development, more generations per year and changing species' ranges. Insecticides are often the first tools available to manage these new threats. In the southeastern US, sweet potato whitefly (Bemisia tabaci) has recently become the major threat to vegetable production. We used data from a multi-year, regional whitefly monitoring network to search for climate, land use, and management correlates of whitefly activity.

RESULTS

Strikingly, whiteflies were detected earlier and grew more abundant in landscapes with greater insecticide use, but only when temperatures were also relatively warm. Whitefly outbreaks in hotter conditions were not associated with specific active ingredients used to suppress whiteflies, which would be consistent with a regional disruption of biocontrol following sprays for other pests. In addition, peak whitefly detections occurred earlier in areas with more vegetable production, but later with more cotton production, consistent with whiteflies moving among crops.

CONCLUSION

Altogether, our findings suggest possible links between warmer temperatures, more abundant pests, and frequent insecticide applications disrupting biological control, though this remains to be explicitly demonstrated. Climate-initiated pesticide treadmills of this type may become an increasingly common driver of emerging pest outbreaks as global change accelerates. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Effects of modern agricultural demonstration zones on cropland utilization efficiency: An empirical study based on county pilot

The establishment of modern agricultural demonstration zones, as an important initiative to promote the modernization of agriculture, has attracted much attention as to whether its promotion and demonstration can bring about a benign enhancement of the cropland utilization efficiency. This study uses the difference-in-difference model, and with the help of the data of 1872 counties in China from 2006 to 2020. The study shows that the agricultural demonstration zones significantly improve the utilization efficiency of cropland, while there is strong regional heterogeneity in this effect, with a greater degree of promotion in some regions that are lagging in agricultural development. Further mechanism analysis reveals that superior agricultural resource endowment and strong government financial support can positively moderate this effect. However, over-industrialization will inhibit this positive effect.

Climate suitability modeling for Anastrepha suspensa (Diptera: Tephritidae): current and future invasion risk analysis

The Caribbean fruit fly, Anastrepha suspensa (Lower, 1862) (Diptera: Tephritidae), is a pest of significant economic importance in Central America and Florida (USA). This study was carried out to examine the influence of climate change on the space-time distribution of A. suspensa on temporal and spatial scales. The CLIMEX software was used to model the current distribution and for climate change. The future distribution was performed using two global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR), under the emission scenarios (SRES) A2 and A1B for the years 2050, 2080, and 2100. The results indicate a low potential for global distribution of A. suspensa in all scenarios studied. However, tropical areas were identified with high climatic suitability for A. suspensa in South America, Central America, Africa, and Oceania until the end of the century. Projections of areas with climatic suitability for A. suspensa can provide helpful information to develop preventive strategies of phytosanitary management avoiding economic impacts with the introduction of the species.

The socio-economic challenges of managing pathogen evolution in agriculture

Genetic resistance forms the foundation of infectious disease management in crops. However, rapid pathogen evolution is causing the breakdown of resistance and threatening disease control. Recent research efforts have identified strategies for resistance gene deployment that aim to disrupt pathogen adaptation and prevent breakdown. To date, there has been limited practical uptake of such strategies. In this paper, we focus on the socio-economic challenges associated with translating applied evolutionary research into scientifically informed management strategies to control pathogen adaptation. We develop a conceptual framework for the economic valuation of resistance and demonstrate that in addition to various direct benefits, resistance delivers considerable indirect and non-market value to farmers and society. Incentives for stakeholders to engage in stewardship strategies are complicated by the uncertain timeframes associated with evolutionary processes, difficulties in assigning ownership rights to genetic resources and lack of governance. These interacting biological, socio-economic and institutional complexities suggest that resistance breakdown should be viewed as a wicked problem, with often conflicting imperatives among stakeholders and no simple cause or solution. Promoting the uptake of scientific research outcomes that address complex issues in sustainable crop disease management will require a mix of education, incentives, legislation and social change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease ecology and evolution in a changing world'.

Defining features of diverse and productive agricultural systems: An archetype analysis of U.S. agricultural counties

Prior research suggests that greater spatial diversity in crops and land use is associated with higher crop yields and improved ecosystem function. However, what leads to the emergence of agricultural systems that meet both productivity and ecological health goals remains an open question. Understanding the factors that differentiate these places from other agricultural systems is key to understanding the mechanisms, pathways, consequences, and constraints to employing diversification as a tool for increasing agricultural sustainability. In this study, we employ archetype analysis to examine the factors uniquely associated with the conjoint existence of high crop diversity and high crop productivity. We identify five agricultural system classes that represent a range of diversity and productivity combinations using k-means cluster analysis then use random forests analysis to identify factors that strongly explain the differences between the classes—describing different agricultural production regimes. Our exploratory analysis of the difference in agricultural system factors across classes suggests (1) crop diversity and its preconditions are associated with the highest yields, (2) biophysical conditions bound diversity-productivity realities, (3) productivity comes at a petrochemical cost, and that (4) crop rotations are a key diversification strategy. Overall, our results suggest that despite clear biophysical constraints on transitions to high diversity—high productivity systems the role of actionable factors on crop production regimes is stronger, providing reason to be hopeful about transitions to agricultural production regimes fit for new climate realities.

Neonicotinoids: A critical assessment of the global research landscape of the most extensively used insecticide

The broad-spectrum insecticides in the neonicotinoid group are the most widely used worldwide because of their widely recognized advantages in the mode of action. Therefore, their use is growing on a large scale and, moreover, is often used preventively without considering the ecological impact. Studies demonstrated harmful effects on non-target organisms, which in turn negatively impact biodiversity and thus food production. The dramatic decline of honey bee colonies, for example, could be linked to the use of neonicotinoids. Ecologically sustainable solutions to this conflict must be focused by scientific research. The question arose whether the global research efforts meet these requirements on a global scale. Therefore, this review article aimed to analyze the global research landscape on neonicotinoids under ecological, economic, and temporal aspects. To this end, key players and incentives for investigations in this research field are identified. The increase in publications over time is significant and shows a dynamic citation pattern. It indicates a comparatively high interest in current research, with ecological issues becoming more and more the focus of international research. It has been shown that national publication performance and funding are in line with global market interests, with the most publishing country being China. In addition, the elevated status quo of the scientific infrastructure in high-economy countries and their willingness to support research can be linked to national research output. Lower economies are sparsely involved in published studies. The research performance accumulates with a high North-South divide. Therefore, future research projects must have a sustainable focus and take regional requirements worldwide into account. This requires greater involvement of developing countries as the most economically dependent regions with enormously increasing consumption rates. Solutions must be found to ensure sustainable food production against a backdrop of already declining biodiversity due to the large-scale use of neonicotinoids.

Past and recent farming degrades aquatic insect genetic diversity

Recent declines in once-common species are triggering concern that an environmental crisis point has been reached. Yet, the lack of long abundance time series data for most species can make it difficult to attribute these changes to anthropogenic causes, and to separate them from normal cycles. Genetic diversity, on the other hand, is sensitive to past and recent environmental changes, and reflects a measure of a populations' potential to adapt to future stressors. Here, we consider whether patterns of genetic diversity among aquatic insects can be linked to historical and recent patterns of land use change. We collated mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) variation for >700 aquatic insect species across the United States, where patterns of agricultural expansion and intensification have been documented since the 1800s. We found that genetic diversity was lowest in regions where cropland was historically (pre-1950) most extensive, suggesting a legacy of past environmental harm. Genetic diversity further declined where cropland has since expanded, even after accounting for climate and sampling effects. Notably though, genetic diversity also appeared to rebound where cropland has diminished. Our study suggests that genetic diversity at the community level can be a powerful tool to infer potential population declines and rebounds over longer time spans than is typically possible with ecological data. For the aquatic insects that we considered, patterns of land use many decades ago appear to have left long-lasting damage to genetic diversity that could threaten evolutionary responses to rapid global change.

The State of US Farm Operator Livelihoods

In nine of the last 10 years, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has reported that the average funds generated on-farm for farm operators to meet living expenses and debt obligations have been negative. This paper pieces together disparate data to understand why farm operators in the most productive agricultural systems on the planet are systematically losing money. The data-driven narrative we present highlights some troubling trends in US farm operator livelihoods. Though US farms are more productive than ever before, rising input costs, volatile production values, and rising land rents have left farmers with unprecedented levels of farm debt, low on-farm incomes, and high reliance on federal programs. For many US farm operators, the indicators of a “good livelihood”—stability, security, equitable rewards for work—are largely absent. We conclude by proposing three axes of intervention that would help US agriculture better sustain all farmers' livelihoods, a crucial step toward improving overall agricultural sustainability: (1) increase the diversity of people, crops, and cropping systems, (2) improve equity in access to land, support, and capital, and (3) improve the quality, accessibility, and content of data to facilitate monitoring of multiple indicators of agricultural “success.”

Genome resequencing reveals rapid, repeated evolution in the Colorado potato beetle

Insecticide resistance and rapid pest evolution threatens food security and the development of sustainable agricultural practices, yet the evolutionary mechanisms that allow pests to rapidly adapt to control tactics remains unclear. Here we examine how a global super-pest, the Colorado potato beetle (CPB), Leptinotarsa decemlineata, rapidly evolves resistance to insecticides. Using whole genome resequencing and transcriptomic data focused on its ancestral and pest range in North America, we assess evidence for three, non-mutually exclusive models of rapid evolution: pervasive selection on novel mutations, rapid regulatory evolution, and repeated selection on standing genetic variation. Population genomic analysis demonstrates that CPB is geographically structured, even among recently established pest populations. Pest populations exhibit similar levels of nucleotide diversity, relative to non-pest populations, and show evidence of recent expansion. Genome scans provide clear signatures of repeated adaptation across CPB populations, with especially strong evidence of selection on insecticide resistance genes in different populations. Analyses of gene expression show that constitutive upregulation of candidate insecticide resistance genes drives distinctive population patterns. CPB evolves insecticide resistance repeatedly across agricultural regions, leveraging similar genetic pathways but different genes, demonstrating a polygenic trait architecture for insecticide resistance that can evolve from standing genetic variation. Despite expectations, we do not find support for strong selection on novel mutations, or rapid evolution from selection on regulatory genes. These results suggest that integrated pest management practices must mitigate the evolution of polygenic resistance phenotypes among local pest populations, in order to maintain the efficacy and sustainability of novel control techniques.

Farmers' adoption and perceived benefits of diversified crop rotations in the margins of U.S. Corn Belt

Monoculture and simplified two-crop rotation systems compromise the ecosystem services essential to crop production, diminish agricultural productivity, and cause detrimental effects on the environment. In contrast to the simplified two-crop rotation, diversified crop rotation (DCR) refers to rotation systems that contain three or more crops. Despite multiple benefits generated by DCR, its usage has dwindled over the past several decades. This paper examined determinants of farmers' adoption decisions and perceived benefits of DCR in the west margins of the U.S. Corn Belt where crop diversity has declined. We analyzed 708 farmer responses from a farmer survey conducted in the eastern South Dakota in 2018, accounting for county-level climate variables, as well as cropland data, soil and topographic variables in close proximity of the farm. Our findings indicated that farmers were more likely to utilize DCR as an adaptive strategy to cope with water deficit and reduce soil erosion on marginal land. Additionally, livestock integration and organic farming helped necessitate DCR adoption and magnify its benefits. Producer concerns towards lack of equipment and new crop profitability diluted producers' interests in DCR practice and compromised its benefits. Enhanced technical and policy support, along with infrastructure and market development, could help producers fully utilize DCR benefits and expand DCR usage to more regions.

Complex life histories predispose aphids to recent abundance declines

Many animals change feeding habits as they progress through life stages, exploiting resources that vary in space and time. However, complex life histories may bring new risks if rapid environmental change disrupts the timing of these switches. Here, we use abundance times series for a diverse group of herbivorous insects, aphids, to search for trait and environmental characteristics associated with declines. Our meta dataset spanned three world regions and >300 aphid species, tracked at 75 individual sites for 10-50 years. Abundances were generally falling, with median changes of -8.3%, -5.6%, and -0.1% per year in the central USA, northwestern USA, and United Kingdom, respectively. Aphids that obligately alternated between host plants annually and those that were agricultural pests exhibited the steepest declines, relative to species able to persist on the same host plant year-round or those in natural areas. This suggests that host alternation might expose aphids to climate-induced phenology mismatches with one or more of their host plant species, with additional risks from exposure to insecticides and other management efforts. Warming temperatures through time were associated with milder aphid declines or even abundance increases, particularly at higher latitudes. Altogether, while a warming world appeared to benefit some aphid species in some places, most aphid species that had time-sensitive movements among multiple host plants seemed to face greater risk of decline. More generally, this suggests that recent human-induced rapid environmental change is rebalancing the risks and rewards associated with complex life histories.

Will Plant Genome Editing Play a Decisive Role in "Quantum-Leap" Improvements in Crop Yield to Feed an Increasing Global Human Population?

Growing scientific evidence demonstrates unprecedented planetary-scale human impacts on the Earth's system with a predicted threat to the existence of the terrestrial biosphere due to population increase, resource depletion, and pollution. Food systems account for 21-34% of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Over the past half-century, water and land-use changes have significantly impacted ecosystems, biogeochemical cycles, biodiversity, and climate. At the same time, food production is falling behind consumption, and global grain reserves are shrinking. Some predictions suggest that crop yields must approximately double by 2050 to adequately feed an increasing global population without a large expansion of crop area. To achieve this, "quantum-leap" improvements in crop cultivar productivity are needed within very narrow planetary boundaries of permissible environmental perturbations. Strategies for such a "quantum-leap" include mutation breeding and genetic engineering of known crop genome sequences. Synthetic biology makes it possible to synthesize DNA fragments of any desired sequence, and modern bioinformatics tools may hopefully provide an efficient way to identify targets for directed modification of selected genes responsible for known important agronomic traits. CRISPR/Cas9 is a new technology for incorporating seamless directed modifications into genomes; it is being widely investigated for its potential to enhance the efficiency of crop production. We consider the optimism associated with the new genetic technologies in terms of the complexity of most agronomic traits, especially crop yield potential (Yp) limits. We also discuss the possible directions of overcoming these limits and alternative ways of providing humanity with food without transgressing planetary boundaries. In conclusion, we support the long-debated idea that new technologies are unlikely to provide a rapidly growing population with significantly increased crop yield. Instead, we suggest that delicately balanced humane measures to limit its growth and the amount of food consumed per capita are highly desirable for the foreseeable future.

Historical decrease in agricultural landscape diversity is associated with shifts in bumble bee species occurrence

Agricultural intensification is a key suspect among putative drivers of recent insect declines, but an explicit link between historical change in agricultural land cover and insect occurrence is lacking. Determining whether agriculture impacts beneficial insects (e.g. pollinators), is crucial to enhancing agricultural sustainability. Here, we combine large spatiotemporal sets of historical bumble bee and agricultural records to show that increasing cropland extent and decreasing crop richness were associated with declines in over 50% of bumble bee species in the agriculturally intensive Midwest, USA. Critically, we found that high crop diversity was associated with a higher occurrence of many species pre-1950 even in agriculturally dominated areas, but that current agricultural landscapes are devoid of high crop diversity. Our findings suggest that insect conservation and agricultural production may be compatible, with increasing on-farm and landscape-level crop diversity predicted to have positive effects on bumble bees.

Recent climate change is creating hotspots of butterfly increase and decline across North America

Some insect populations are experiencing dramatic declines, endangering the crucial ecosystem services they provide. Yet, other populations appear robust, highlighting the need to better define patterns and underlying drivers of recent change in insect numbers. We examined abundance and biodiversity trends for North American butterflies using a unique citizen-science dataset that has recorded observations of over 8 million butterflies across 456 species, 503 sites, nine ecoregions, and 26 years. Butterflies are a biodiverse group of pollinators, herbivores, and prey, making them useful bellwethers of environmental change. We found great heterogeneity in butterfly species' abundance trends, aggregating near zero, but with a tendency toward decline. There was strong spatial clustering, however, into regions of increase, decrease, or relative stasis. Recent precipitation and temperature appeared to largely drive these patterns, with butterflies generally declining at increasingly dry and hot sites but increasing at relatively wet or cool sites. In contrast, landscape and butterfly trait predictors had little influence, though abundance trends were slightly more positive around urban areas. Consistent with varying responses by different species, no overall directional change in butterfly species richness or evenness was detected. Overall, a mosaic of butterfly decay and rebound hotspots appeared to largely reflect geographic variability in climate drivers. Ongoing controversy about insect declines might dissipate with a shift in focus to the causes of heterogeneous responses among taxa and sites, with climate change emerging as a key suspect when pollinator communities are broadly impacted.