Determination of ecological statuses of streams in the Ceyhan River Basin using composition and ecological characteristics of diatoms

The present study aimed to evaluate the interactions between diatoms and ecological factors in various streams and to test the suitability of diatom indices to evaluate the ecological status of 44 streams in the Ceyhan River Basin during the spring and autumn periods of 2021 and the summer of 2022. Canonical correspondence analysis indicated the significant effects of electrical conductivity (EC), dissolved oxygen, biological oxygen demand (BOD5), total phosphorus (TP), and total nitrogen (TN) on the distribution of diatom species of streams in the Ceyhan River Basin. Of the streams, Aksu and Erkenez streams were associated with high EC, BOD5, and TP and characterized by pollution-tolerant species. Pollution-sensitive species showed close integration with Aksu Spring Brook, Gözpınar Creek, Göksun Creek, and Yeşilgöz Spring Brook, which related to a high dissolved oxygen gradient. Different eco-regional diatom indices displayed different scores, representing from bad to high ecological status in the Ceyhan River basin. Among the diatom indices, Trophic Index Turkey (TIT) proved to be the more suitable metric to assess the ecological status of streams. TIT indicated deterioration of water quality in Karasu (S06), Erkenez (S07) streams, and downstream areas of the Ceyhan River and the least distributed sampling stations in the basin. Results suggested that eco-regionally developed diatom indices, like TIT, are required to more accurately assess the ecological status of streams in the Mediterranean region. The study provides a fundamental assessment of the ecological status of streams in the Ceyhan River Basin using an appropriate diatom index before the Pazarcık-centered earthquake on February 6, 2023. Findings allow someone to assess the impact of the earthquake on diatom communities and ecological factors in the region in the future studies.

Anthropogenic climate change has influenced global river flow seasonality

Riverine ecosystems have adapted to natural discharge variations across seasons. However, evidence suggesting that climate change has already impacted magnitudes of river flow seasonality is limited to local studies, mainly focusing on changes of mean or extreme flows. This study introduces the use of apportionment entropy as a robust measure to assess flow-volume nonuniformity across seasons, enabling a global analysis. We found that ~21% of long-term river gauging stations exhibit significant alterations in seasonal flow distributions, but two-thirds of these are unrelated to trends in annual mean discharge. By combining a data-driven runoff reconstruction with state-of-the-art hydrological simulations, we identified a discernible weakening of river flow seasonality in northern high latitudes (above 50°N), a phenomenon directly linked to anthropogenic climate forcing.

Pharmaceuticals and Personal Care Products in the Aquatic Environment: How Can Regions at Risk be Identified in the Future?

Pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) are an indispensable component of a healthy society. However, they are well-established environmental contaminants, and many can elicit biological disruption in exposed organisms. It is now a decade since the landmark review covering the top 20 questions on PPCPs in the environment (Boxall et al., 2012). In the present study we discuss key research priorities for the next 10 years with a focus on how regions where PPCPs pose the greatest risk to environmental and human health, either now or in the future, can be identified. Specifically, we discuss why this problem is of importance and review our current understanding of PPCPs in the aquatic environment. Foci include PPCP occurrence and what drives their environmental emission as well as our ability to both quantify and model their distribution. We highlight critical areas for future research including the involvement of citizen science for environmental monitoring and using modeling techniques to bridge the gap between research capacity and needs. Because prioritization of regions in need of environmental monitoring is needed to assess future/current risks, we also propose four criteria with which this may be achieved. By applying these criteria to available monitoring data, we narrow the focus on where monitoring efforts for PPCPs are most urgent. Specifically, we highlight 19 cities across Africa, Central America, the Caribbean, and Asia as priorities for future environmental monitoring and risk characterization and define four priority research questions for the next 10 years. Environ Toxicol Chem 2024;43:575-588. © 2023 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.

A Critical Review of Groundwater Table Fluctuation: Formation, Effects on Multifields, and Contaminant Behaviors in a Soil and Aquifer System

The groundwater table fluctuation (GTF) zone is an important medium for the hydrologic cycle between unsaturated soil and saturated aquifers, which accelerates the migration, transformation, and redistribution of contaminants and further poses a potential environmental risk to humans. In this review, we clarify the key processes in the generation of the GTF zone and examine its links with the variation of the hydrodynamic and hydrochemistry field, colloid mobilization, and contaminant migration and transformation. Driven by groundwater recharge and discharge, GTF regulates water flow and the movement of the capillary fringe, which further control the advection and dispersion of contaminants in soil and groundwater. In addition, the formation and variation of the reactive oxygen species (ROS) waterfall are impacted by GTF. The changing ROS components partially determine the characteristic transformation of solutes and the dynamic redistribution of the microbial population. GTF facilitates the migration and transformation of contaminants (such as nitrogen, heavy metals, non-aqueous phase liquids, and volatile organic compounds) through colloid mobilization, the co-migration effect, and variation of the hydrodynamic and hydrochemistry fields. In conclusion, this review illustrates the limitations of the current literature on GTF, and the significance of GTF zones in the underground environment is underscored by expounding on the future directions and prospects.

Spatiotemporal variability of extreme precipitation in east of northwest China and associated large-scale circulation factors

Spatial and temporal distributions and influencing factors of extreme precipitation are important bases for coping with future climate change. The spatiotemporal variability and affecting factors of extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) in east of northwest China (ENW) during 1961-2015 were investigated using a series of approaches such as modified Mann-Kendall trend test, Hurst exponent, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), and geodetector model. The results showed that CDD and CWD decreased significantly (P < 0.01), with rates of 1.4 days/decade and 0.07 days/decade, respectively. EPIs in ENW exhibited an obvious heterogeneity. CDD gradually increased from the southeast to the northwest. The remaining EPIs generally showed the opposite trend. Geodetector results demonstrated that large-scale circulation factors had a significant impact on EPIs in ENW. The influence of large-scale climate factors on EPIs was concentrated in nonlinear enhancement, and Nino3.4 and SO were the dominant driving factors that played a major role in the variability of EPIs. The results of this study provided a reference for ENW and other arid and semi-arid regions to cope with extreme climates and develop corresponding strategies.

Genetic erosion in an endangered desert fish during a megadrought despite long-term supportive breeding

Human water use combined with a recent megadrought have reduced river and stream flow through the southwest United States and led to periodic drying of formerly perennial river segments. Reductions in snowmelt runoff and increased extent of drying collectively threaten short-lived, obligate aquatic species, including the endangered Rio Grande silvery minnow (Hybognathus amarus). This species is subject to boom-and-bust population dynamics, under which large fluctuations in abundance are expected to lower estimates of effective population size and erode genetic diversity over time. Rates of diversity loss are also affected by additions of hatchery-origin fish used to supplement the wild population. We used demographic and genetic data from wild and hatchery individuals to examine the relationship of genetic diversity and effective population size to abundance over the last two decades. Genetic diversity was low during the early 2000s, but diversity and demographic metrics stabilized after the hatchery program was initiated and environmental conditions improved. Yet, from 2017 onward, allelic diversity declined (Cohen's d = 1.34) and remained low despite hatchery stocking and brief wild population recovery. Across the time series, single-sample estimates of effective population size based on linkage disequilibrium (LD Ne ) were positively associated (r = 0.53) with wild abundance and total abundance, but as the proportion of hatchery-origin spawners increased, LD Ne declined (r = -0.55). Megadrought limited wild spawner abundance and precluded refreshment of hatchery brood stocks with wild fish; hence, we predict a riverine population increasingly dominated by hatchery-origin individuals and accelerated loss of genetic diversity despite supplementation. We recommend an adaptive and accelerated management plan that integrates river flow management and hatchery operations to slow the pace of genetic diversity loss exacerbated by megadrought.

Soil δ15N spatial distribution is primarily shaped by climatic patterns in the semiarid Caatinga, Northeast Brazil

Soil nitrogen isotopic composition (δ15Nsoil) is an invaluable tool as it integrates nitrogen (N) transformations in soils. In addition to serving as a baseline to understand the N cycle, spatial representations of δ15Nsoil across landscapes (or isoscapes) is a multi-purpose tool useful to investigate, for example, plant-microbe interactions, animal migration and forensics. We investigate the climatic and edaphic controls of δ15Nsoil utilising data from 29 geographical locations sampled across the semiarid Brazilian Caatinga biome. The sampling covered a mean annual precipitation (PA) gradient ranging from 0.51 to 1.36 m a-1 and eight soil types originating from three different geological origins. Our data show that the combination of higher aridity and lower seasonality (ψ) leads to higher values of δ15Nsoil. Moreover, soil total carbon had a positive relationship with δ15Nsoil, appearing within the best-supported models according to the information-theoretic approach undertaken here. The contribution to the plant communities by the Fabaceae trees expressed as their basal area was not related to δ15Nsoil values, suggesting that the magnitude of biological N fixation in the Caatinga is not large enough to be reflected in the soil. In addition, considering PA in a categorical fashion, i.e., 'high' (> 0.8 m a-1) and 'low' PA (< 0.8 m a-1), we found that, within the wetter category, δ15Nsoil was positively related to several soil properties (i.e., clay content, effective cation exchange capacity, exchangeable calcium, silt content, pHH2O, total phosphorus and sum of bases) and negatively related to sand content. Our study provides new insights into the functioning of semiarid ecosystems from a pedo-isotopic perspective and contributes to the overall understanding of the N cycle in the Caatinga region, with the potential to support the development of new conceptualisation of biogeochemical process and testing of global models that simulate N and C cycles.

Southern Hemisphere dominates recent decline in global water availability

Global land water underpins livelihoods, socioeconomic development, and ecosystems. It remains unclear how water availability has changed in recent decades. Using an ensemble of observations, we quantified global land water availability over the past two decades. We show that the Southern Hemisphere has dominated the declining trend in global water availability from 2001 to 2020. The significant decrease occurs mainly in South America, southwestern Africa, and northwestern Australia. In the Northern Hemisphere, the complex regional increasing and decreasing trends cancel each other, resulting in a negligible hemispheric trend. The variability and trend in water availability in the Southern Hemisphere are largely driven by precipitation associated with climate modes, particularly the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. This study highlights their dominant role in controlling global water availability.

China's strictest water policy: Reversing water use trends and alleviating water stress

Growing water problems have promoted the Chinese government to implement the strictest water resources management system (SWRMS), the first national policy that puts into practice the concept of "safe operating space" for human water use. Here, we investigate the impact of the SWRMS on China's water use and water stress based on a newly compiled high-resolution and multi-sectoral water use dataset. Results indicate that China's total water use (TWU) increased significantly from 549 km3 yr-1 to 610 km3 yr-1 between 2000 and 2012 (i.e., the pre-SWRMS period), but decreased remarkably in the post-SWRMS period (2012-2020), reaching 565 km3 yr-1 by the year 2020. The decline in TWU was attributed to the improvements of irrigation and industrial water use efficiency (WUE), which were strictly controlled by the SWRMS at various administrative levels of China. The improved WUE has yielded about ∼90 km3 of water savings per year, freeing 17 prefectures from extreme water stress that affects 6% of China's population and 10% of its GDP. Although the improved WUE caused a significant decrease in TWU, the reduction in China's average water stress was insignificant due to the considerable influence of water availability. We further identified hotspots with great potential for water stress reduction, mainly in northwestern China, and hotspots at high risks of water security, primarily on the North China Plain. This study underscores the crucial role of the SWRMS in addressing China's water shortage and provides valuable insights to other countries grappling with water problems in defining their own "safe water operating spaces".

Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

This planetary boundaries framework update finds that six of the nine boundaries are transgressed, suggesting that Earth is now well outside of the safe operating space for humanity. Ocean acidification is close to being breached, while aerosol loading regionally exceeds the boundary. Stratospheric ozone levels have slightly recovered. The transgression level has increased for all boundaries earlier identified as overstepped. As primary production drives Earth system biosphere functions, human appropriation of net primary production is proposed as a control variable for functional biosphere integrity. This boundary is also transgressed. Earth system modeling of different levels of the transgression of the climate and land system change boundaries illustrates that these anthropogenic impacts on Earth system must be considered in a systemic context.

Antibiotic resistance indicator genes in biofilm and planktonic microbial communities after wastewater discharge

The spread of bacteria with antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) in aquatic ecosystems is of growing concern as this can pose a risk of transmission to humans and animals. While the impact of wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluent on ARG abundance in surface waters has been studied extensively, less is known about the fate of ARGs in biofilms. The proximity and dense growth of microorganisms in combination with the accumulation of higher antibiotic concentrations in biofilms might render biofilms a reservoir for ARGs. Seasonal parameters such as water temperature, precipitation, and antibiotic concentrations should be considered as well, as they may further influence the fate of ARGs in aquatic ecosystems. Here we investigated the effect of WWTP effluent on the abundance of the sulfonamide resistance genes sul1 and sul2, and the integrase gene intI1 in biofilm and surface water compartments of a river in Germany with a gradient of anthropogenic impact using quantitative PCR. Furthermore, we analyzed the bacterial community structure in both compartments via 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing, following the river downstream. Additionally, conventional water parameters and sulfonamide concentrations were measured, and seasonal aspects were considered by comparing the fate of ARGs and bacterial community diversity in the surface water compartment between the summer and winter season. Our results show that biofilm compartments near the WWTP had a higher relative abundance of ARGs (up to 4.7%) than surface waters (<2.8%). Sulfonamide resistance genes were more persistent further downstream (>10 km) of the WWTP in the hot and dry summer season than in winter. This finding is likely a consequence of the higher proportion of wastewater and thus wastewater-derived microorganisms in the river during summer periods. We observed distinct bacterial communities and ARG abundance between the biofilm and surface water compartment, but even greater variations when considering seasonal and spatiotemporal parameters. This underscores the need to consider seasonal aspects when studying the fate of ARGs in aquatic ecosystems.

Application of novel artificial bee colony optimized ANN and data preprocessing techniques for monthly streamflow estimation

Streamflow estimation is important in hydrology, especially in drought and flood-prone areas. Accurate estimation of streamflow values is crucial for the sustainable management of water resources, the development of early warning systems for disasters, and for various applications such as irrigation, hydropower production, dam sizing, and siltation management. This study developed the ANN algorithm by optimizing with an artificial bee colony (ABC). Then, the ABC-ANN hybrid model, which was established, was combined with different signal decomposition techniques to evaluate its performance in streamflow estimation in the East Black Sea Region, Türkiye. For this purpose, the lagged streamflow values were divided into subcomponents using the local mean decomposition (LMD) with the empirical envelope and complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) signal decomposition techniques presented to the ABC-ANN algorithm. Thus, the success of the novel hybrid LMD-ABC-ANN and CEEMDAN-ABC-ANN approaches in streamflow prediction was evaluated. The outputs are reliable strategies and resources for water resource planners and policymakers.

A functional microbiome catalog crowdsourced from North American rivers

Predicting elemental cycles and maintaining water quality under increasing anthropogenic influence requires understanding the spatial drivers of river microbiomes. However, the unifying microbial determinants governing river biogeochemistry are hindered by a lack of genome-resolved functional insights and sampling across multiple rivers. Here we employed a community science effort to accelerate the sampling of river microbiomes to create the Genome Resolved Open Watersheds database (GROWdb). This resource profiled the identity, distribution, function, and expression of thousands of microbial genomes across rivers covering 90% of United States watersheds. We identified the most cosmopolitan microbiome members, while also revealing local drivers of strain endemism across ecological dimensions. We provide the first evidence that microbial functional trait expression followed the tenets of the River Continuum Concept, suggesting the structure and function of river microbiomes is predictable. GROWdb is a publicly available resource that paves the way for watershed predictive modeling and microbiome-based management practices.

Population, land use and economic exposure estimates for Europe at 100 m resolution from 1870 to 2020

Understanding the influence of climate change on past extreme weather impacts is a vital research task. However, the effects of climate change are obscured in the observed impact data series due to the rapid evolution of the social and economic circumstances in which the events occurred. The HANZE v2.0 (Historical Analysis of Natural HaZards in Europe) dataset presented in this study quantifies the evolution of key socioeconomic drivers in Europe since 1870, namely land use, population, economic activity and assets. It consists of algorithms to reallocate baseline (2011) land use and population for any given year based on a large collection of historical subnational- and national-level statistics, and then disaggregate data on production and tangible assets by economic sector into a high-resolution grid. Raster datasets generated by the model enable reconstructing exposure within the footprint of any extreme event both at the time of occurrence and anytime between 1870 and 2020. This allows the separation of the effects of climate change from the effects of exposure change.

Flood hazard potential reveals global floodplain settlement patterns

Flooding is one of the most common natural hazards, causing disastrous impacts worldwide. Stress-testing the global human-Earth system to understand the sensitivity of floodplains and population exposure to a range of plausible conditions is one strategy to identify where future changes to flooding or exposure might be most critical. This study presents a global analysis of the sensitivity of inundated areas and population exposure to varying flood event magnitudes globally for 1.2 million river reaches. Here we show that topography and drainage areas correlate with flood sensitivities as well as with societal behaviour. We find clear settlement patterns in which floodplains most sensitive to frequent, low magnitude events, reveal evenly distributed exposure across hazard zones, suggesting that people have adapted to this risk. In contrast, floodplains most sensitive to extreme magnitude events have a tendency for populations to be most densely settled in these rarely flooded zones, being in significant danger from potentially increasing hazard magnitudes given climate change.

The color of environmental noise in river networks

Despite its far-reaching implications for conservation and natural resource management, little is known about the color of environmental noise, or the structure of temporal autocorrelation in random environmental variation, in streams and rivers. Here, we analyze the geography, drivers, and timescale-dependence of noise color in streamflow across the U.S. hydrography, using streamflow time series from 7504 gages. We find that daily and annual flows are dominated by red and white spectra respectively, and spatial variation in noise color is explained by a combination of geographic, hydroclimatic, and anthropogenic variables. Noise color at the daily scale is influenced by stream network position, and land use and water management explain around one third of the spatial variation in noise color irrespective of the timescale considered. Our results highlight the peculiarities of environmental variation regimes in riverine systems, and reveal a strong human fingerprint on the stochastic patterns of streamflow variation in river networks.

Changes in per capita wheat production in China in the context of climate change and population growth

To address challenges associated with climate change, population growth and decline in international trade linked to the COVID-19 pandemic, determining whether national crop production can meet populations' requirements and contribute to socio-economic resilience is crucial. Three crop models and three global climate models were used in conjunction with predicted population changes. Compared with wheat production in 2000-2010, total production and per capita wheat production were significantly (P < 0.05) increase in 2020-2030, 2030-2040 and 2040-2050, respectively, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 due to climate change in China. However, when considering population and climate changes, the predicted per capita production values were 125.3 ± 0.3, 127.1 ± 2.3 and 128.8 ± 2.7 kg during the 2020-2030, 2030-2040, 2040-2050 periods under RCP4.5, or 126.2 ± 0.7, 128.7 ± 2.5, and 131.0 ± 4.1 kg, respectively, under RCP8.5. These values do not significantly differ (P > 0.05) from the baseline level (127.9 ± 1.3 kg). The average per capita production in Loess Plateau and Gansu-Xinjiang subregions declined. In contrast, per capita production in the Huanghuai, Southwestern China, and Middle-Lower Yangtze Valleys subregions increased. The results suggest that climate change will increase total wheat production in China, but population change will partly offset the benefits to the grain market. In addition, domestic grain trade will be influenced by both climate and population changes. Wheat supply capacity will decline in the main supply areas. Further research is required to address effects of the changes on more crops and in more countries to obtain deeper understanding of the implications of climate change and population growth for global food production and assist formulation of robust policies to enhance food security.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12571-023-01351-x.

Effects of landscape conservation on the ecohydrological and water quality functions and services and their driving factors

Since the implementation of landscape conservation of the green heart area in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Metropolitan Region, the landscape structure and pattern have changed significantly. The ecosystem service functions in the area have been improved, but the status of ecohydrological and water quality and service functions (EHWQSFs) is still unclear. To clarify the status of EHWQSFs and their driving factors influenced by landscape conservation, this study analysed landscape changes using remote sensing image data from 1998, 2008, and 2018 and the changes and their spatial characteristics using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and spatial analysis methods. The results showed that the dominant land types in the area were forestland and cropland from 1998 to 2018; the area of forestland and construction land expanded and that of cropland decreased year by year; the annual average surface runoff volume rose, and the annual average actual evapotranspiration and soil water content fell from 1998 to 2008 and rose from 2008 to 2018; and all pollutant indicators decreased significantly after 2008. The areas with higher surface runoff were mainly concentrated in the central and southern regions, those with higher evapotranspiration were in the northwestern and southwestern regions, those with higher soil water content were in the northern region, and those with higher sediment and nitrogen and phosphorus pollutant contents were in the central and southeastern regions. The results showed that land use, land cover and meteorological factors were the most significant drivers on EHWQSFs and illustrated that EHWQSFs in the area decreased after 1998. There was a significant improvement after 2008 and the area currently has a good status. This study not only provides insights into land use, land cover and meteorological factors that have significant impacts on EHWQSFs but also highlights that the landscape conservation of the area can improve ecosystem service functions.

Less extreme and earlier outbursts of ice-dammed lakes since 1900

Episodic failures of ice-dammed lakes have produced some of the largest floods in history, with disastrous consequences for communities in high mountains^1-7. Yet, estimating changes in the activity of ice-dam failures through time remains controversial because of inconsistent regional flood databases. Here, by collating 1,569 ice-dam failures in six major mountain regions, we systematically assess trends in peak discharge, volume, annual timing and source elevation between 1900 and 2021. We show that extreme peak flows and volumes (10 per cent highest) have declined by about an order of magnitude over this period in five of the six regions, whereas median flood discharges have fallen less or have remained unchanged. Ice-dam floods worldwide today originate at higher elevations and happen about six weeks earlier in the year than in 1900. Individual ice-dammed lakes with repeated outbursts show similar negative trends in magnitude and earlier occurrence, although with only moderate correlation to glacier thinning⁸. We anticipate that ice dams will continue to fail in the near future, even as glaciers thin and recede. Yet widespread deglaciation, projected for nearly all regions by the end of the twenty-first century⁹, may bring most outburst activity to a halt.

Caravan - A global community dataset for large-sample hydrology

High-quality datasets are essential to support hydrological science and modeling. Several CAMELS (Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large-sample Studies) datasets exist for specific countries or regions, however these datasets lack standardization, which makes global studies difficult. This paper introduces a dataset called Caravan (a series of CAMELS) that standardizes and aggregates seven existing large-sample hydrology datasets. Caravan includes meteorological forcing data, streamflow data, and static catchment attributes (e.g., geophysical, sociological, climatological) for 6830 catchments. Most importantly, Caravan is both a dataset and open-source software that allows members of the hydrology community to extend the dataset to new locations by extracting forcing data and catchment attributes in the cloud. Our vision is for Caravan to democratize the creation and use of globally-standardized large-sample hydrology datasets. Caravan is a truly global open-source community resource.

Increased hydropower but with an elevated risk of reservoir operations in India under the warming climate

Hydropower is a significant contributor to clean global electricity generation; therefore, it plays a crucial role in climate change mitigation. Notwithstanding major hydropower dams in India are in diverse climatic regions and exposed to risks because of the warming climate, potential changes in hydroclimate remain largely unexplored. Using observations and climate projections, we demonstrate the hydroclimatic changes in the upstream catchments and their implications for the hydropower generation of 46 major hydropower dams in India. A warmer (up to 5.0°C) and wetter projected climate with a substantial increase (5.0-33%) in precipitation will lead to an increased (7-70%) inflow to reservoirs of major dams. Increased inflow will enhance (9-36%) the hydropower production for most dams in the future, with a more prominent rise in central India dams. A simultaneous rise in extreme inflow and high reservoir storage conditions is projected under future climate for most dams. However, future climate changes project a favorable hydroclimate for hydropower production, with the associated risks related to extremes.

Behavioural thermoregulation in cold-water freshwater fish: Innate resilience to climate warming?

Behavioural thermoregulation enables ectotherms to access habitats providing conditions within their temperature optima, especially in periods of extreme thermal conditions, through adjustments to their behaviours that provide a "whole-body" response to temperature changes. Although freshwater fish have been detected as moving in response to temperature changes to access habitats that provide their thermal optima, there is a lack of integrative studies synthesising the extent to which this is driven by behaviour across different species and spatial scales. A quantitative global synthesis of behavioural thermoregulation in freshwater fish revealed that across 77 studies, behavioural thermoregulatory movements by fish were detected both vertically and horizontally, and from warm to cool waters and, occasionally, the converse. When fish moved from warm to cooler habitats, the extent of the temperature difference between these habitats decreased with increasing latitude, with juvenile and non-migratory fishes tolerating greater temperature differences than adult and anadromous individuals. With most studies focused on assessing movements of cold-water salmonids during summer periods, there remains an outstanding need for work on climatically vulnerable, non-salmonid fishes to understand how these innate thermoregulatory behaviours could facilitate population persistence in warming conditions.

River ecosystem metabolism and carbon biogeochemistry in a changing world

River networks represent the largest biogeochemical nexus between the continents, ocean and atmosphere. Our current understanding of the role of rivers in the global carbon cycle remains limited, which makes it difficult to predict how global change may alter the timing and spatial distribution of riverine carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emissions. Here we review the state of river ecosystem metabolism research and synthesize the current best available estimates of river ecosystem metabolism. We quantify the organic and inorganic carbon flux from land to global rivers and show that their net ecosystem production and carbon dioxide emissions shift the organic to inorganic carbon balance en route from land to the coastal ocean. Furthermore, we discuss how global change may affect river ecosystem metabolism and related carbon fluxes and identify research directions that can help to develop better predictions of the effects of global change on riverine ecosystem processes. We argue that a global river observing system will play a key role in understanding river networks and their future evolution in the context of the global carbon budget.

Resilience to hydrological droughts in the northern Murray-Darling Basin, Australia

We respond to the problem of declining streamflows in the northern Murray–Darling Basin, Australia, a region that suffers from hydrological droughts and a drying trend. We partitioned the effect of meteorological trends from anthropogenic drivers on annual streamflow, quantified the effect of annual streamflow decline on waterbird abundance, estimated the effects of streamflow change on a measure of ecosystem resilience, and calculated the net benefits of in-stream water reallocation. The anthropogenic drivers of hydrological droughts were assessed by comparing the Lower Darling (hereafter the Barka) River, which has large recorded water extractions, with the adjacent Paroo River, which has very little recorded water extractions. Findings include: (1) only about one-third of the recent reduced streamflow of the Barka River is due to a meteorological drying trend; (2) statistically significant declines in waterbird species richness and abundance have occurred on both rivers between 1983–2000 and 2001–2020; (3) declines in waterbird abundance have been much larger along the Barka River than the Paroo River; and (4) ecosystem resilience, as measured by waterbird abundance, wasgreater on the Paroo River. Our four-step framework is applicable in any catchment with adequate time-series data and supports adaptive responses to hydrological droughts.

This article is part of the Royal Society Science+ meeting issue ‘Drought risk in the Anthropocene’.

Global drought trends and future projections

Drought is one of the most difficult natural hazards to quantify and is divided into categories (meteorological, agricultural, ecological and hydrological), which makes assessing recent changes and future scenarios extremely difficult. This opinion piece includes a review of the recent scientific literature on the topic and analyses trends in meteorological droughts by using long-term precipitation records and different drought metrics to evaluate the role of global warming processes in trends of agricultural, hydrological and ecological drought severity over the last four decades, during which a sharp increase in atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) has been recorded. Meteorological droughts do not show any substantial changes at the global scale in at least the last 120 years, but an increase in the severity of agricultural and ecological droughts seems to emerge as a consequence of the increase in the severity of AED. Lastly, this study evaluates drought projections from earth system models and focuses on the most important aspects that need to be considered when evaluating drought processes in a changing climate, such as the use of different metrics and the uncertainty of modelling approaches. This article is part of the Royal Society Science+ meeting issue 'Drought risk in the Anthropocene'.

Using weighted expert judgement and nonlinear data analysis to improve Bayesian belief network models for riverine ecosystem services

Rivers are a key part of the hydrological cycle and a vital conduit of water resources, but are under increasing threat from anthropogenic pressures. Linking pressures with ecosystem services is challenging because the processes interconnecting the physico-chemical, biological and socio-economic elements are usually captured using heterogenous methods. Our objectives were, firstly, to advance an existing proof-of-principle Bayesian belief network (BBN) model for integration of ecosystem services considerations into river management. We causally linked catchment stressors with ecosystem services using weighted evidence from an expert workshop (capturing confidence among expert groups), legislation and published literature. The BBN was calibrated with analyses of national monitoring data (including non-linear relationships and ecologically meaningful breakpoints) and expert judgement. We used a novel expected index of desirability to quantify the model outputs. Secondly, we applied the BBN to three case study catchments in Ireland to demonstrate the implications of changes in stressor levels for ecosystem services in different settings. Four out of the seven significant relationships in data analyses were non-linear, highlighting that non-linearity is common in ecosystems, but rarely considered in environmental modelling. Deficiency of riparian shading was identified as a prevalent and strong influence, which should be addressed to improve a broad range of societal benefits, particularly in the catchments where riparian shading is scarce. Sediment load had a lower influence on river biology in flashy rivers where it has less potential to settle out. Sediment interacted synergistically with organic matter and phosphate where these stressors were active; tackling these stressor pairs simultaneously can yield additional societal benefits compared to the sum of their individual influences, which highlights the value of integrated management. Our BBN model can be parametrised for other Irish catchments whereas elements of our approach, including the expected index of desirability, can be adapted globally.

Hatchery tanks induce intense reduction in microbiota diversity associated with gills and guts of two endemic species of the São Francisco River

The São Francisco River (SFR), one of the main Brazilian rivers, has suffered cumulative anthropogenic impacts, leading to ever-decreasing fish stocks and environmental, economic, and social consequences. Rhinelepis aspera and Prochilodus argenteus are medium-sized, bottom-feeding, and rheophilic fishes from the SFR that suffer from these actions. Both species are targeted for spawning and restocking operations due to their relevance in artisanal fisheries, commercial activities, and conservation concerns. Using high-throughput sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene, we characterized the microbiome present in the gills and guts of these species recruited from an impacted SFR region and hatchery tanks (HT). Our results showed that bacterial diversity from the gill and gut at the genera level in both fish species from HT is 87% smaller than in species from the SFR. Furthermore, only 15 and 29% of bacterial genera are shared between gills and guts in R. aspera and P. argenteus from SFR, respectively, showing an intimate relationship between functional differences in organs. In both species from SFR, pathogenic, xenobiont-degrading, and cyanotoxin-producer bacterial genera were found, indicating the critical pollution scenario in which the river finds itself. This study allowed us to conclude that the conditions imposed on fish in the HT act as important modulators of microbial diversity in the analyzed tissues. It also raises questions regarding the effects of these conditions on hatchery spawn fish and their suitability for restocking activities, aggravated by the narrow genetic diversity associated with such freshwater systems.

Enhancement of river flooding due to global warming

Human-induced climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation¹. Due to the complexity of runoff generation and the streamflow process, the historical impact of human-induced climate change on river flooding remains uncertain. Here, we address the question of whether anthropogenic climate change has altered the probability of the extreme river flood events for the period 1951-2010 based on simulated river discharge derived from large ensemble climate experiments with and without human-induced climate change. The results indicate that human-induced climate change altered the probabilities of 20 of the 52 analyzed flood events. Fourteen of these 20 flood events, which occurred mainly in Asia and South America, were very likely to have been enhanced by human-induced climate change due to an increase in heavy precipitation. Conversely, two flood events in North/South America and two flood events in Asia and two flood events in Europe were suppressed by human-induced climate change, perhaps as a result of lower snowfall. Human-induced climate change has enhanced flooding more prominently in recent years, providing important insights into potential adaptation strategies for river flooding.

Climate and land management accelerate the Brazilian water cycle

Increasing floods and droughts are raising concerns of an accelerating water cycle, however, the relative contributions to streamflow changes from climate and land management have not been assessed at the continental scale. We analyze streamflow data in major South American tropical river basins and show that water use and deforestation have amplified climate change effects on streamflow extremes over the past four decades. Drying (fewer floods and more droughts) is aligned with decreasing rainfall and increasing water use in agricultural zones and occurs in 42% of the study area. Acceleration (both more severe floods and droughts) is related to more extreme rainfall and deforestation and occurs in 29% of the study area, including southern Amazonia. The regionally accelerating water cycle may have adverse global impacts on carbon sequestration and food security.

Increasing floods and droughts are raising concerns of an accelerating water cycle. A new study shows that the terrestrial water cycle in Brazil has been mostly drying or accelerating, aligned with changes in rainfall, water use, and forest cover.

Natural and anthropogenic forces on suspended sediment dynamics in Asian estuaries

Climate change and anthropogenic activities are affecting the hydrological conditions of rivers and may have altered nutrient and suspended sediments released into coastal seas. However, testing this hypothesis is difficult, confounded by the lack of observational data and the unavailability of globally accepted suspended sediment concentration (SSC) algorithms. Here, we analyzed the trends in SSC (2000-2020) at the mouths of 10 major Asian rivers using 10 available satellite-SSC algorithms. We identified spatially distinct trends, with SSC decreasing at the mouths of the Yellow, Pearl, and Indus rivers, and increasing trends at the mouths of the Narmada and Ganges-Brahmaputra rivers, while there were no significant trends at the mouths of the remaining rivers. River discharge, dams, and land use changes in basins individually did not suffice, but reproduced the observed SSC trends when used together. Our results imply that anthropogenic activities threaten the marine ecosystem more than climate forcing on Asian coasts.

Variations in cost of transport and their ecological consequences: a review

Movement is essential in the ecology of most animals, and it typically consumes a large proportion of individual energy budgets. Environmental conditions modulate the energetic cost of movement (cost of transport, COT), and there are pronounced differences in COT between individuals within species and across species. Differences in morphology affect COT, but the physiological mechanisms underlying variation in COT remain unresolved. Candidates include mitochondrial efficiency and the efficiency of muscle contraction-relaxation dynamics. Animals can offset increased COT behaviourally by adjusting movement rate and habitat selection. Here, we review the theory underlying COT and the impact of environmental changes on COT. Increasing temperatures, in particular, increase COT and its variability between individuals. Thermal acclimation and exercise can affect COT, but this is not consistent across taxa. Anthropogenic pollutants can increase COT, although few chemical pollutants have been investigated. Ecologically, COT may modify the allocation of energy to different fitness-related functions, and thereby influence fitness of individuals, and the dynamics of animal groups and communities. Future research should consider the effects of multiple stressors on COT, including a broader range of pollutants, the underlying mechanisms of COT and experimental quantifications of potential COT-induced allocation trade-offs.

Fewer Basins Will Follow Their Budyko Curves Under Global Warming and Fossil-Fueled Development

The Budyko framework consists of a curvilinear relationship between the evaporative ratio (i.e., actual evaporation over precipitation) and the aridity index (i.e., potential evaporation over precipitation) and defines evaporation's water and energy limits. A basin's movement within the Budyko space illustrates its hydroclimatic change and helps identify the main drivers of change. On the one hand, long-term aridity changes drive evaporative ratio changes, moving basins along their Budyko curves. On the other hand, historical human development can cause river basins to deviate from their curves. The question is if basins will deviate or follow their Budyko curves under the future effects of global warming and related human developments. To answer this, we quantify the movement in the Budyko space of 405 river basins from 1901-1950 to 2051-2100 based on the outputs of seven models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 6 (CMIP6). We account for the implications of using different potential evaporation models and study low- and high-emissions scenarios. We find considerable differences of movement in Budyko space regarding direction and intensity when using the two estimates of potential evaporation. However, regardless of the potential evaporation estimate and the scenario used, most river basins will not follow their reference Budyko curves (>72%). Furthermore, the number of basins not following their curves increases under high greenhouse gas emissions and fossil-fueled development SP585 and across dry and wet basin groups. We elaborate on the possible explanations for a large number of basins not following their Budyko curves.

Making waves: Pulling the plug-Climate change effects will turn gaining into losing streams with detrimental effects on groundwater quality

In many parts of the world, climate change has already caused a decline in groundwater recharge, whereas groundwater demand for drinking water production and irrigation continues to increase. In such regions, groundwater tables are steadily declining with major consequences for groundwater-surface water interactions. Predominantly gaining streams that rely on discharge of groundwater from the adjacent aquifer turn into predominantly losing streams whose water seeps into the underground. This reversal of groundwater-surface water interactions is associated with an increase of low river flows, drying of stream beds, and a switch of lotic ecosystems from perennial to intermittent, with consequences for fluvial and groundwater dependent ecosystems. Moreover, water infiltrating from rivers and streams can carry a complex mix of contaminants. Accordingly, the diversity and concentrations of compounds detected in groundwater has been increasing over the past decades. During low flow, stream and river discharge may consist mainly of treated wastewater. In losing stream systems, this contaminated water seeps into the adjoining aquifers. This threatens both ecosystems as well as drinking and irrigation water quality. Climate change is therefore severely altering landscape water balances, with groundwater-surface water-interactions having reached a tipping point in many cases. Current model projections harbor huge uncertainties and scientific evidence for these tipping points remains very limited. In particular, quantitative data on groundwater-surface water-interactions are scarce both on the local and the catchment scale. The result is poor public or political awareness, and appropriate management measures await implementation.

Random Forest Model Has the Potential for Runoff Simulation and Attribution

Quantifying the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff changes is beneficial for developing sustainable water-management strategies within the local ecosystem. Machine-learning models were widely used in scientific research; yet, whether it is applicable for quantifying the contribution of climate change and human activities to runoff changes is not well understood. To provide a new pathway, we quantified the contribution of climate change and human activities to runoff changes using a machine-learning method (random forest model) in two semi-humid basins in this study. Results show that the random forest model provides good performances for runoff simulation; the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff changes from 1982 to 2014 were found between 6–9% and 91–94% in the Zijinguan basin, and 31–44% and 56–69% in the Daomaguan basin, respectively. Furthermore, the model performances were also compared with those of well-known elasticity-based and double-mass curve methods, and the results of these models are approximate in the investigated basins, which implies that the random forest model has the potential for runoff simulation and for quantifying the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff changes. This study provides a new methodology for studying the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff changes, and the limited numbers of parameters make this methodology important for further applications to other basins elsewhere. Nevertheless, the physical interpretation should be made with caution and more comprehensive comparison work must be performed to assess the model’s applicability.

Unprecedented levels of ultrafine particles, major sources, and the hydrological cycle

Ultrafine particles (UFP) acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are the driving force behind changing rainfall patterns. Recently observed weather extremes like floods and drought might be due to changing anthropogenic UFP emissions. However, the sources and budgets of anthropogenic primary and secondary particles are not well known. Based on airborne measurements we identified as a major contribution modern fossil fuel flue gas cleaning techniques to cause a doubling of global primary UFP number emissions. The subsequent enhancement of CCN numbers has several side effects. It’s changing the size of the cloud droplets and delays raindrop formation, suppressing certain types of rainfall and increasing the residence time of water vapour in the atmosphere. This additional latent energy reservoir is directly available for invigoration of rainfall extremes. Additionally it’s a further contribution to the column density of water vapour as a greenhouse gas and important for the infrared radiation budget. The localized but ubiquitous fossil fuel related UFP emissions and their role in the hydrological cycle, may thus contribute to regional or continental climate trends, such as increasing drought and flooding, observed within recent decades.

Density-dependence and environmental variability have stage-specific influences on European grayling growth

Fish somatic growth is indeterminate and can be influenced by a range of abiotic and biotic variables. With climate change forecast to increase the frequency of warming and unusual discharge events, it is thus important to understand how these variables currently influence somatic growth and how that might differ for specific age-classes and/ or life stages. Here, we used a 17-year dataset from a chalk stream in southern England to identify the abiotic and biotic influences on the growth of juvenile, sub-adult and adult life stages of European grayling (Thymallus thymallus), a cold-water riverine salmonid. The results revealed that interannual variations in grayling growth were well described by annual- and site-specific abiotic and biotic explanatory variables. We found divergent responses between life stages to increased temperature and unusual discharge during the main growth period with, for example, elevated temperatures related to increased juvenile growth but reduced sub-adult growth, and high discharge events related to increased sub-adult growth yet reduced juvenile growth. Conversely, stage-specific grayling abundance negatively influenced growth at each life stage, though only juvenile growth was impacted by the abundance of a competitor species, brown trout (Salmo trutta). These results emphasise the merits of testing a wide range of environmental and biological explanatory variables on fish growth, and across life stages. They also reveal the importance of maintaining high habitat heterogeneity in rivers to ensure all life stages can reduce their competitive interactions and have access to adequate flow and thermal refugia during periods of elevated environmental stress.

River ecosystem endangerment from climate change-driven regulated flow regimes

Major threats of freshwater systems are river damming and habitat degradation, further amplified by climate change, another major driver of biodiversity loss. This study aims to understand the effects of climate change, and its repercussions on hydropower production, on the instream biota of a regulated river. Particularly, it aims to ascertain how mesohabitat availability downstream of hydropower plants changes due to modified flow regimes driven by climate change; how mesohabitat changes will influence the instream biota; and if instream biota changes will be similar within and between biological groups. We used a mesohabitat-level ecohydraulic approach with four biological elements - macrophytes, macroalgae, diatoms and macroinvertebrates - to encompass a holistic ecosystem perspective of the river system. The ecological preferences of the biological groups for specific mesohabitats were established by field survey. The mesohabitat availability in three expected climate change-driven flow regime scenarios was determined by hydrodynamic modeling. The biota abundance/cover was computed for the mesohabitat indicator species of each biological group. Results show that climate-changed flow regimes are characterized by a significant water shortage during summer months already for 2050. Accordingly, the regulated rivers' hydraulics are expected to change towards more homogeneous flow conditions where run habitats should prevail. As a result, the biological elements are expected to face abundance/cover modifications ranging from decreases of 76% up to 67% increase, depending on the biological element and indicator taxa. Diatoms seem to endure the greatest range of modifications while macrophytes the slightest (15% decrease to 38% increase). The greatest modifications would occur on decreasing abundance/cover responses. Such underlies an important risk to fluvial biodiversity in the future, indicting climate change as a significant threat to the fluvial system in regulated rivers.

Peak Spring Flood Discharge Magnitude and Timing in Natural Rivers across Northern Finland: Long-Term Variability, Trends, and Links to Climate Teleconnections

In northern regions, like Finland, peak river discharge is principally controlled by maximum snowmelt runoff during spring (March–May). Global warming and climate change extensively influence both the quantity and temporal characteristics of peak discharge in northern rivers by altering snowpack accumulation and melt processes. This study analyzed peak spring flood discharge (PSFD) magnitude (PSFDM) and timing (PSFDT) in four natural rivers (Simojoki, Kuivajoki, Kiiminkijoki, and Temmesjoki) across northern Finland, in terms of long-term (1967–2011) variability, trends, and links to large-scale climate teleconnections. The PSFDM significantly (p < 0.05) declined in the Simojoki, Kuivajoki, and Kiiminkijoki rivers over time. Both the Simojoki and Kuivajoki rivers also experienced significant decreasing trends of about −0.33 and −0.3 (days year−1), respectively, in the PSFDT during 1967–2011. In these two rivers, the less and earlier PSFDs were principally attributable to the warmer spring seasons positively correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in recent decades. Moreover, daily precipitation time series corresponding to the PSFD events showed no considerable effects on PSFDM and PSFDT changes in all the natural rivers studied. This suggests that less and earlier historical PSFDs in natural rivers at higher latitudes in northern Finland were primarily induced by warmer springtime temperatures influencing snowpack dynamics.

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Low-Flow Changes in Lowland Rivers

At the beginning of the 21st century, ongoing climate change led to research into extreme streamflow phenomena. This study aimed to assess the patterns of low-flow changes in different hydrological regions of Lithuania using selected hydrological indices (the annual minimum 30-day flow (m3 s−1) of the warm period—30Q), its duration, and deficit volume (below the 80th and 95th percentile flow: 30Q80 and 30Q95). Differences in low-flow indices in separate hydrological regions and over different periods (1961–2020, 1961–1990, 1991–2020) were analyzed, applying the HydroOffice tool, the TREND software package, and mapping using the Kriging interpolation. The highest specific indices of 30Q were estimated in the Southeastern hydrological region (3.97 L/s·km2) and the lowest in the Central hydrological region (1.47 L/s·km2). In general, the 30Q values in the periods 1961–2020 and 1991–2020 had no trends. In 1961–1990, trends in 30Q data were significantly positive, and positive in most investigated rivers of the Western and Central hydrological regions. The average number of dry days at both thresholds decreased in the Western and Southeastern hydrological regions and increased in the Central hydrological region comparing two subperiods.

Assessing remote sensing as a tool to monitor hydrological stress in Irish catchments with Freshwater Pearl Mussel populations

The West Coast of Ireland hosts many of the few populations of Freshwater Peal Mussels (FPM) left in Europe. The decline of this keystone species is strongly related to deteriorating hydrological conditions, specifically to the threat of low flows during dry summers. Populations still capable of reproducing require a minimum discharge and flow velocity to support juvenile mussels, or else stress builds up and an entire generation may be lost. Monitoring environmental and hydrological conditions in small and remote FPM catchments is difficult due to the lack of infrastructure. Indices derived from remote sensing imagery can be used to assess hydrological variables at the catchment scale. Here, five indices are tested as possible surrogates for soil moisture and evapotranspiration, based on two relevant land-cover types: open peat habitats (OPH) and forestry. Selected indices are then assessed in their ability to reproduce seasonal patterns and in their response to a severe drought event. The moisture stress index (MSI) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were found to be the best surrogates for soil moisture and evapotranspiration respectively. Both indices showed seasonality patterns in the two land-cover types, although the variability of MSI was significantly higher. During the 2018 drought, MSI visibly increased only in OPH, while NDVI rose only for forestry. The results suggest that OPH enhances the long-term hydrological resilience of a catchment by conserving water in the peat substrate, while industrial forestry plantations exacerbate the pressure on water during drier periods. This has consequences for river discharge, freshwater biodiversity and specifically for FPM. Implementing these surrogates have the potential to identify land-use management strategies that reduce and even avert the effects of drought on FPM. Such strategies are increasingly necessary in a climate change context, as recurring summer droughts are expected in most of Europe.

Effect of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities on Streamflow Indicators in a Tropical River Basin in Southern China

Climate change and anthropogenic activities are the two main driving elements influencing changes in streamflow. Previous studies mainly focused on the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on annual mean streamflow (AMS), ignoring annual maximum streamflow (Amax) and annual minimum streamflow (Amin). On the other hand, most previous studies attributed the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities synoptically. However, the separate influence mechanism among climatic variables, such as precipitation, temperature, sunshine duration change, direct human activities, and land use cover change, needs further analysis. We used the Water and Energy transfer Processes in Large River basin (WEP–L) model to quantify the impacts of climatic variables (precipitation, temperature, and sunshine duration) and anthropogenic activities (land use cover change (LUCC) and direct human activities (DHAs)) on streamflow in the Caojiang River Basin (CRB) with a tropical climate. The results indicate that anthropogenic activities play a major role in streamflow indictor variation. Of the investigated factors related to climate change, precipitation showed the greatest impact on streamflow variation. Notably, DHA contributed the most to the variation of the three streamflow indictors, followed by precipitation, temperature, and sunshine duration, while LUCC had a much lower impact on streamflow variation. This study investigated the response of different streamflow indicators (AMS, Amax, and Amin) to climate change and anthropogenic activities, and it is of value to watershed resource planning and management.

Water dynamics over a Western Patagonian watershed: Land surface changes and human factors

Warming trends in Patagonia and severe droughts in recent decades are still poorly understood in terms of their hydrological effects. The effects of climate change on water dynamics in addition to human water management could generate a future water scarcity scenario in one of the regions with the most abundant water resources of Chile. The aim of this work is to focus on assessing the impacts of warming trends on water dynamics in the Patagonian Simpson River watershed during the last two decades. We estimated anomalies in the main components of water balance such as precipitation (P), snow cover (SC), evapotranspiration (ET) and streamflows (Q) as well as surface variables and meteorological forcing (i.e. air temperature - Ta, solar radiation - RS, land surface temperature - LST). The processed data were obtained from remote sensing, reanalysis and in-situ data. We implemented a trend analysis for each variable in the period 2000-2019 at monthly, seasonal and annual scale. Results showed a warming trend in Ta and LST of about 1.2 °C and 2.1 °C, respectively, concentrated mainly in the autumn and winter seasons. Although P showed non-significant trends, Q diminished significantly at rates of more than 9.1 m³/s/decade, representing 36% of its historical mean. However, the decreases in Q are seen only in the maximum (spring) and minimum (summer) seasonal flows. These decreases are explained by significant increases in ET, led by a positive feedback of its drivers (LST, Ta and RS), which is directly linked to the impact of warming and an associated vegetation greenness in the watershed, as well as a decrease in SC during winter that feeds the Simpson River during spring and summer. The decrease in Q is reinforced by the intensification of water withdrawals in recent decades, as shown by an accelerated increase in water rights for agricultural and drinking uses. In a context of water scarcity and increasing and extreme droughts, this work contributes to further understanding water dynamics in western Patagonia, providing support for policy and decision-making when defining sustainable productive practices at watershed scale.

Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater Recharge in Cold and Humid Climates: Controlling Processes and Thresholds

Long-term changes in precipitation and temperature indirectly impact aquifers through groundwater recharge (GWR). Although estimates of future GWR are needed for water resource management, they are uncertain in cold and humid climates due to the wide range in possible future climatic conditions. This work aims to (1) simulate the impacts of climate change on regional GWR for a cold and humid climate and (2) identify precipitation and temperature changes leading to significant long-term changes in GWR. Spatially distributed GWR is simulated in a case study for the southern Province of Quebec (Canada, 36,000 km2) using a water budget model. Climate scenarios from global climate models indicate warming temperatures and wetter conditions (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5; 1951–2100). The results show that annual precipitation increases of >+150 mm/yr or winter precipitation increases of >+25 mm will lead to significantly higher GWR. GWR is expected to decrease if the precipitation changes are lower than these thresholds. Significant GWR changes are produced only when the temperature change exceeds +2 °C. Temperature changes of >+4.5 °C limit the GWR increase to +30 mm/yr. This work provides useful insights into the regional assessment of future GWR in cold and humid climates, thus helping in planning decisions as climate change unfolds. The results are expected to be comparable to those in other regions with similar climates in post-glacial geological environments and future climate change conditions.

Long-term trends in Songhua River Basin streamflow and its multivariate relationships with meteorological factors

Long-term streamflow trends are closely related to meteorological factors; understanding the relationships between them helps to improve water resources management in advance. In this study, we examined long-term annual and seasonal streamflow trends over 1961-2010 in 28 stations in the Songhua River Basin (SRB), China, using four kinds of trend detection methods and then determined the optimal meteorological predictors for SRB streamflow based on the multiple wavelet coherence. We found significant downward trends in annual streamflow in a large part of the study stations (varies from 10 to 18 for different methods), and fewer decreasing stations were detected when we consider the full autocorrelation and the long-term persistence in streamflow. In contrast to annual streamflow, fewer stations showed significant downward trends in summer and winter streamflow. Streamflow generally followed the pattern of precipitation (PRE); the largest streamflow changes occurred in summer and August monthly streamflow variation contributed the most to the annual streamflow variation. We found PRE and potential evapotranspiration (PET) combined was the optimal predictor for streamflow above Jiangqiao and on the Jiangqiao-Dalai section of the Songhua River; as for the Dalai-Harbin section and the Harbin-Jiamusi section, the optimal predictor combinations are PRE and number of rainy days (WET), and PRE and average monthly temperature (TMP) respectively.

Attribution of streamflow changes across the globe based on the Budyko framework

Differentiating and clarifying the driving factors behind streamflow changes are critical for highlighting hydrological responses to changing environments. However, due to the limited number of hydrological stations, the dominant factor controlling global observed streamflow change remains unclear and intensely debated. Here, we revisit this scientific issue by using the most comprehensive dataset to attribute the observed global streamflow changes during 1960-2014. The results suggest that other factors than precipitation (P) and potential evaporation (E₀) are the most important contributors to global observed streamflow changes, which dominate streamflow change for 48.9-50.9% of the stations. In contrast, the dominant factor translated into P in 72.3-72.9% of stations when using reconstructed streamflow datasets, in agreement with most previous global assessments. These differences indicate that streamflow attributions using reconstructed streamflow might overestimate the effects of P while underestimating the roles of other factors, such as the vegetation and human impact. At the global scale, the other factors affected by many catchment characteristics and their impacts on streamflow change have remarkable regional differences. This study highlights the necessity to apply the observed data in streamflow attribution to avoid biased conclusions regarding the dominant factor of streamflow changes.

Global Runoff Signatures Changes and Their Response to Atmospheric Environment, GRACE Water Storage, and Dams

Runoff signatures (RS), a special set of runoff indexes reflecting the hydrological process, have an important influence on many fields of both human and natural systems by flooding, drought, and available water resources. However, the global RS changes and their causes remain largely unknown. Here, we make a comprehensive investigation of RS changes and their response to total water storage anomalies (TWSA) from GRACE satellites, atmospheric circulation, and reservoir construction by using daily runoff data from 21,955 hydrological stations during 1975–2017. The global assessment shows that (1) in recent years, the global extreme flow signatures tend to decrease, while the low and average flow signatures are likely to increase in more regions; (2) the spatial patterns of trends are similar for different RS, suggesting that the runoff distribution tends to entirely upward in some regions, while downward in other regions; (3) the trends in RS are largely consistent with that in TWSA over most regions in North America and eastern South America during 1979–2017, indicating that the GRACE-based TWSA have great potential in hydrological monitoring and attribution; (4) atmospheric circulation change could partly explain the global spatiotemporal variation patterns of RS; (5) dams have important influences on reducing the high flow signature in the catchments including dams built during 1975–2017. This study provides a full picture of RS changes and their possible causes, which has important implications for water resources management and flood and drought disaster assessment.