An overwinter protocol for detecting wolverines and other carnivores at camera traps paired with automated scent dispensers

Camera traps deployed with olfactory attractants are used to survey rare and elusive carnivores. Study areas with deep snowpack and rugged terrain present challenges and risks to field personnel, who traditionally must revisit camera stations regularly to refresh attractants. In such locations, alternative overwinter survey protocols that include a persistent attractant would improve both the safety and efficiency of camera-trap surveys. We present a protocol for installing camera traps and automated scent dispensers on trees at above-average maximum snow depth to eliminate the need for interim service visits and to enable standardized surveys to be conducted throughout the year. Our protocol proved to be effective at attracting and detecting numerous and repeated visits by wolverines, fishers, and other carnivores in two montane regions of the western contiguous United States. The volume, timing, and composition of liquid scent lure released by automated scent dispensers can be varied to target multiple species of interest, and the dispenser can be used in situations where bait rewards may influence the behavior of target species and/or pose human safety concerns.

Diet and landscape characteristics drive spatial patterns of mercury accumulation in a high-latitude terrestrial carnivore

Limited information exists on mercury concentrations and environmental drivers of mercury bioaccumulation in high latitude terrestrial carnivores. Spatial patterns of mercury concentrations in wolverine (Gulo gulo, n = 419) were assessed across a 1,600,000 km2 study area in relation to landscape, climate, diet and biological factors in Arctic and boreal biomes of western Canada. Hydrogen stable isotope ratios were measured in wolverine hair from a subset of 80 animals to assess the spatial scale for characterizing environmental conditions of their habitat. Habitat characteristics were determined using GIS methods and raster datasets at two scales, the collection location point and a 150 km radius buffer, which was selected based on results of a correlation analysis between hydrogen stable isotopes in precipitation and wolverine hair. Total mercury concentrations in wolverine muscle ranged >2 orders of magnitude from 0.01 to 5.72 μg/g dry weight and varied geographically, with the highest concentrations in the Northwest Territories followed by Nunavut and Yukon. Regression models at both spatial scales indicated diet (based on nitrogen stable isotope ratios) was the strongest explanatory variable of mercury concentrations in wolverine, with smaller though statistically significant contributions from landscape variables (soil organic carbon, percent cover of wet area, percent cover of perennial snow-ice) and distance to the Arctic Ocean coast. The carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios of wolverine muscle suggested greater mercury bioaccumulation could be associated with feeding on marine biota in coastal habitats. Landscape variables identified in the modelling may reflect habitat conditions which support enhanced methylmercury transfer to terrestrial biota. Spatially-explicit estimates of wet atmospheric deposition were positively correlated with wolverine mercury concentrations but this variable was not selected in the final regression models. These landscape patterns provide a basis for further research on underlying processes enhancing methylmercury uptake in high latitude terrestrial food webs.

Climatic conditions limit wolverine distribution in the Cascade Range of southwestern North America

Recolonization of the Cascade Range in southern British Columbia, Canada, and Washington, USA, by wolverines ( Gulo gulo (L., 1758)) is an ongoing process whose ultimate outcome is unknown. A reliable species distribution model for the wolverine in the Cascades (i.e., their first-order habitat selection) is urgently needed to help inform management and conservation strategies. Using Argos location data obtained on 10 resident adult wolverines (six females, four males) from 2008 to 2016, we generated a multi-covariate species distribution model for the wolverine in the Cascades. Our final model included three climatic covariates and their quadratic terms: Proximity to the Transitional Zone Near Alpine Tree Line, Number of Frost-free Days per Year, and Annual Precipitation as Snow. Model validations indicated that our model was robust and could identify areas of potential wolverine distribution in the Cascades reliably. Our model provides evidence that wolverine distribution in the Cascades is constrained by climatic conditions and that snowy and cold environments define the geographic areas that are overwhelmingly associated with resident wolverines. In addition, our model provides a reliable basis for monitoring the direct effects of climate change on wolverines in the Cascade Range and for predicting the extent to which climate change may impact their populations under various scenarios.

Protection status, human disturbance, snow cover and trapping drive density of a declining wolverine population in the Canadian Rocky Mountains

Protected areas are important in species conservation, but high rates of human-caused mortality outside their borders and increasing popularity for recreation can negatively affect wildlife populations. We quantified wolverine (Gulo gulo) population trends from 2011 to 2020 in > 14,000 km² protected and non-protected habitat in southwestern Canada. We conducted wolverine and multi-species surveys using non-invasive DNA and remote camera-based methods. We developed Bayesian integrated models combining spatial capture-recapture data of marked and unmarked individuals with occupancy data. Wolverine density and occupancy declined by 39%, with an annual population growth rate of 0.925. Density within protected areas was 3 times higher than outside and declined between 2011 (3.6 wolverines/1000 km²) and 2020 (2.1 wolverines/1000 km²). Wolverine density and detection probability increased with snow cover and decreased near development. Detection probability also decreased with human recreational activity. The annual harvest rate of ≥ 13% was above the maximum sustainable rate. We conclude that humans negatively affected the population through direct mortality, sub-lethal effects and habitat impacts. Our study exemplifies the need to monitor population trends for species at risk-within and between protected areas-as steep declines can occur unnoticed if key conservation concerns are not identified and addressed.

Wolverines (Gulo gulo) in the Arctic: Revisiting distribution and identifying research and conservation priorities amid rapid environmental change

Wolverines (Gulo gulo) occupy most of the globe’s Arctic tundra. Given the rapidly warming climate and expanding human activity in this biome, understanding wolverine ecology, and therefore the species’ vulnerability to such changes, is increasingly important for developing research priorities and effective management strategies. Here, we review and synthesize knowledge of wolverines in the Arctic using both Western science sources and available Indigenous Knowledge (IK) to improve our understanding of wolverine ecology in the Arctic and better predict the species’ susceptibility to change. To accomplish this, we update the pan-Arctic distribution map of wolverines to account for recent observations and then discuss resulting inference and uncertainties. We use these patterns to contextualize and discuss potential underlying drivers of distribution and population dynamics, drawing upon knowledge of food habits, habitat associations, and harvest, as well as studies of wolverine ecology elsewhere. We then identify four broad areas to prioritize conservation and research efforts: (1) Monitoring trends in population abundance, demographics, and distribution and the drivers thereof, (2) Evaluating and predicting wolverines’ responses to ongoing climate change, particularly the consequences of reduced snow and sea ice, and shifts in prey availability, (3) Understanding wolverines’ response to human development, including the possible impact of wintertime over-snow travel and seismic testing to reproductive denning, as well as vulnerability to hunting and trapping associated with increased human access, and (4) Ensuring that current and future harvest are sustainable.

Chromosomal-level reference genome assembly of the North American wolverine (Gulo gulo luscus): a resource for conservation genomics

We report a chromosomal-level genome assembly of a male North American wolverine (Gulo gulo luscus) from the Kugluktuk region of Nunavut, Canada. The genome was assembled directly from long-reads, comprising: 758 contigs with a contig N50 of 36.6 Mb; contig L50 of 20; base count of 2.39 Gb; and a near complete representation (99.98%) of the BUSCO 5.2.2 set of 9,226 genes. A presumptive chromosomal-level assembly was generated by scaffolding against two chromosomal-level Mustelidae reference genomes, the ermine and the Eurasian river otter, to derive a final scaffold N50 of 144.0 Mb and a scaffold L50 of 7. We annotated a comprehensive set of genes that have been associated with models of aggressive behavior, a trait which the wolverine is purported to have in the popular literature. To support an integrated, genomics-based wildlife management strategy at a time of environmental disruption from climate change, we annotated the principal genes of the innate immune system to provide a resource to study the wolverine’s susceptibility to new infectious and parasitic diseases. As a resource, we annotated genes involved in the modality of infection by the coronaviruses, an important class of viral pathogens of growing concern as shown by the recent spillover infections by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 to naïve wildlife. Tabulation of heterozygous single nucleotide variants in our specimen revealed a heterozygosity level of 0.065%, indicating a relatively diverse genetic pool that would serve as a baseline for the genomics-based conservation of the wolverine, a rare cold-adapted carnivore now under threat.

Evaluating the importance of wolverine habitat predictors using a machine learning method

In the conterminous United States, wolverines (Gulo gulo) occupy semi-isolated patches of subalpine habitats at naturally low densities. Determining how to model wolverine habitat, particularly across multiple scales, can contribute greatly to wolverine conservation efforts. We used the machine-learning algorithm random forest to determine how a novel analysis approach compared to the existing literature for future wolverine conservation efforts. We also determined how well a small suite of variables explained wolverine habitat use patterns at the second- and third-order selection scale by sex. We found that the importance of habitat covariates differed slightly by sex and selection scales. Snow water equivalent, distance to high-elevation talus, and latitude-adjusted elevation were the driving selective forces for wolverines across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem at both selection orders but performed better at the second order. Overall, our results indicate that wolverine habitat selection is, in large part, broadly explained by high-elevation structural features, and this confirms existing data. Our results suggest that for third-order analyses, additional fine-scale habitat data are necessary.

Dynamic landscapes in northwestern North America structured populations of wolverines (Gulo gulo)

Cyclic climatic and glacial fluctuations of the Late Quaternary produced a dynamic biogeographic history for high latitudes. To refine our understanding of this history in northwestern North America, we explored geographic structure in a wide-ranging carnivore, the wolverine (Gulo gulo). We examined genetic variation in populations across mainland Alaska, coastal Southeast Alaska, and mainland western Canada using nuclear microsatellite genotypes and sequence data from the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region and Cytochrome b (Cytb) gene. Data from maternally inherited mtDNA reflect stable populations in Northwest Alaska, suggesting the region harbored wolverine populations since at least the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 Kya), consistent with their persistence in the fossil record of Beringia. Populations in Southeast Alaska are characterized by minimal divergence, with no genetic signature of long-term refugial persistence (consistent with the lack of pre-Holocene fossil records there). The Kenai Peninsula population exhibits mixed signatures depending on marker type: mtDNA data indicate stability (i.e., historical persistence) and include a private haplotype, whereas biparentally inherited microsatellites exhibit relatively low variation and a lack of private alleles consistent with a more recent Holocene colonization of the peninsula. Our genetic work is largely consistent with the early 20th century taxonomic hypothesis that wolverines on the Kenai Peninsula belong to a distinct subspecies. Our finding of significant genetic differentiation of wolverines inhabiting the Kenai Peninsula, coupled with the peninsula’s burgeoning human population and the wolverine’s known sensitivity to anthropogenic impacts, provides valuable foundational data that can be used to inform conservation and management prescriptions for wolverines inhabiting these landscapes.

Spatiotemporally variable snow properties drive habitat use of an Arctic mesopredator

Climate change is rapidly altering the composition and availability of snow, with implications for snow-affected ecological processes, including reproduction, predation, habitat selection, and migration. How snowpack changes influence these ecological processes is mediated by physical snowpack properties, such as depth, density, hardness, and strength, each of which is in turn affected by climate change. Despite this, it remains difficult to obtain meaningful snow information relevant to the ecological processes of interest, precluding a mechanistic understanding of these effects. This problem is acute for species that rely on particular attributes of the subnivean space, for example depth, thermal resistance, and structural stability, for key life-history processes like reproduction, thermoregulation, and predation avoidance. We used a spatially explicit snow evolution model to investigate how habitat selection of a species that uses the subnivean space, the wolverine, is related to snow depth, snow density, and snow melt on Arctic tundra. We modeled these snow properties at a 10 m spatial and a daily temporal resolution for 3 years, and used integrated step selection analyses of GPS collar data from 21 wolverines to determine how these snow properties influenced habitat selection and movement. We found that wolverines selected deeper, denser snow, but only when it was not undergoing melt, bolstering the evidence that these snow properties are important to species that use the Arctic snowpack for subnivean resting sites and dens. We discuss the implications of these findings in the context of climate change impacts on subnivean species.

Parasites of an Arctic scavenger; the wolverine (Gulo gulo)

Parasites are fundamental components within all ecosystems, shaping interaction webs, host population dynamics and behaviour. Despite this, baseline data is lacking to understand the parasite ecology of many Arctic species, including the wolverine (Gulogulo), a top Arctic predator and scavenger. Here, we combined traditional count methods (i.e. adult helminth recovery, where taxonomy was confirmed by molecular identification) with 18S rRNA high-throughput sequencing to document the wolverine parasite community. Further, we investigated whether the abundance of parasites detected using traditional methods were associated with host metadata, latitude, and longitude (ranging from the northern limit of the boreal forest to the low Arctic and Arctic tundra in Nunavut, Canada). Adult parasites in intestinal contents were identified as Baylisascaris devosi in 72% (n = 39) of wolverines and Taenia spp. in 22% (n = 12), of which specimens from 2 wolverines were identified as T. twitchelli based on COX1 sequence. 18S rRNA high-throughput sequencing on DNA extracted from faeces detected additional parasites, including a pseudophyllid cestode (Diplogonoporus spp. or Diphyllobothrium spp.), two metastrongyloid lungworms (Angiostrongylus spp. or Aelurostrongylus spp., and Crenosoma spp.), an ascarid nematode (Ascaris spp. or Toxocara spp.), a Trichinella spp. nematode, and the protozoan Sarcocystis spp., though each at a prevalence less than 13% (n = 7). The abundance of B. devosi significantly decreased with latitude (slope = -0.68; R² = 0.17; P = 0.004), suggesting a northerly limit in distribution. We describe B. devosi and T. twitchelli in Canadian wolverines for the first time since 1978, and extend the recorded geographic distribution of these parasites ca 2000 km to the East and into the tundra ecosystem. Our findings illustrate the value of molecular methods in support of traditional methods, encouraging additional work to improve the advancement of molecular screening for parasites.

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Combining traditional and molecular methods better captures parasite diversity.

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B. devosi and Taenia spp. distribution extends ca 2000 km East and into the tundra.

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The abundance of B. devosi in wolverines significantly decreases with latitude.

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B. devosi and Taenia spp. abundance is not associated with wolverine host metadata.

Low wolverine (Gulo gulo) density in a national park complex of the Canadian Rocky Mountains

Large carnivores are sensitive to human-caused extirpation due to large home ranges, low population densities, and low reproductive rates. Protected areas help maintain populations by acting as sources, but human-caused mortality, habitat displacement, and edge effects occurring at protected area boundaries may reduce that function. The national parks Banff, Yoho, and Kootenay in the Canadian Rocky Mountains are refugia for large carnivores, including wolverines (Gulo gulo (Linnaeus, 1758)). Despite growing conservation concern, empirical baseline population data for wolverines remain scarce throughout their range, including most of Canada. We hypothesized (i) that in these national parks, wolverine density matched values expected for high-quality habitat, and (ii) that edge effects decreased density towards park boundaries. We conducted systematic non-invasive genetic sampling surveys covering >7000 km2 (2011 and 2013). Using spatial capture–recapture models, we estimated mean (±SE) female (1.5 ± 0.3 and 1.4 ± 0.3 wolverine/1000 km2), male (1.8 ± 0.4 and 1.5 ± 0.3 wolverine/1000 km2), and combined (3.3 ± 0.5 and 3.0 ± 0.4 wolverine/1000 km2) densities for 2011 and 2013, respectively. These estimates were lower than predictions based on density extrapolation from nearby high-quality habitat, and density decreased towards park boundaries. To benefit the population, we recommend creating buffer zones around parks that protect female habitat and prohibit harvest.

Landscape genetics of wolverines (Gulo gulo): scale-dependent effects of bioclimatic, topographic, and anthropogenic variables

Climate change can have particularly severe consequences for high-elevation species that are well-adapted to long-lasting snow conditions within their habitats. One such species is the wolverine, Gulo gulo, with several studies showing a strong, year-round association of the species with the area defined by persistent spring snow cover. This bioclimatic niche also predicts successful dispersal paths for wolverines in the contiguous United States, where the species shows low levels of genetic exchange and low effective population size. Here, we assess the influence of additional climatic, vegetative, topographic, and anthropogenic, variables on wolverine genetic structure in this region using a multivariate, multiscale, landscape genetic approach. This approach allows us to detect landscape-genetic relationships both due to typical, small-scale genetic exchange within habitat, as well as exceptional, long-distance dispersal among habitats. Results suggest that a combination of snow depth, terrain ruggedness, and housing density, best predict gene flow in wolverines, and that the relative importance of variables is scale-dependent. Environmental variables (i.e., isolation-by-resistance, IBR) were responsible for 79% of the explained variation at small scales (i.e., up to ~230 km), and 65% at broad scales (i.e., beyond ~420 km). In contrast, a null model based on only space (i.e., isolation-by-distance, IBD) accounted only for 17% and 11% of the variation at small and broad scales, respectively. Snow depth was the most important variable for predicting genetic structures overall, and at small scales, where it contributed 43% to the variance explained. At broad spatial scales, housing density and terrain ruggedness were most important with contributions to explained variation of 55% and 25%, respectively. While the small-scale analysis most likely captures gene flow within typical wolverine habitat complexes, the broad-scale analysis reflects long-distance dispersal across areas not typically inhabited by wolverines. These findings help to refine our understanding of the processes shaping wolverine genetic structure, which is important for maintaining and improving functional connectivity among remaining wolverine populations.

Refrigeration or anti-theft? Food-caching behavior of wolverines (Gulo gulo) in Scandinavia

Abstract

Food-caching animals can gain nutritional advantages by buffering seasonality in food availability, especially during times of scarcity. The wolverine (Gulo gulo) is a facultative predator that occupies environments of low productivity. As an adaptation to fluctuating food availability, wolverines cache perishable food in snow, boulders, and bogs for short- and long-term storage. We studied caching behavior of 38 GPS-collared wolverines in four study areas in Scandinavia. By investigating clusters of GPS locations, we identified a total of 303 food caches from 17 male and 21 female wolverines. Wolverines cached food all year around, from both scavenging and predation events, and spaced their caches widely within their home range. Wolverines cached food items on average 1.1 km from the food source and made between 1 and 6 caches per source. Wolverines cached closer to the source when scavenging carcasses killed by other large carnivores; this might be a strategy to optimize food gain when under pressure of interspecific competition. When caching, wolverines selected for steep and rugged terrain in unproductive habitat types or in forest, indicating a preference for less-exposed sites that can provide cold storage and/or protection against pilferage. The observed year-round investment in caching by wolverines underlines the importance of food predictability for survival and reproductive success in this species. Increasing temperatures as a consequence of climate change may provide new challenges for wolverines by negatively affecting the preservation of cached food and by increasing competition from pilferers that benefit from a warmer climate. It is however still not fully understood which consequences this may have for the demography and behavior of the wolverine.

Significance statement

Food caching is a behavioral strategy used by a wide range of animals to store food for future use. Choosing appropriate caching sites appears important for slowing down decomposition rates and minimizes competition. In this study, we demonstrate that the wolverine, an opportunistic predator and scavenger, utilizes available carrion to create caches all year around. By following wolverines with GPS collars, we registered that they carried food far away to cache it in secluded and cold places, which are often located on steep slopes or in forest. However, when scavenging other carnivores’ prey, they move food in shorter distances, possibly to be able to quickly return for more. The observed efficiency in wolverine caching behavior is likely vital for their survival and reproductive success in the harsh and highly seasonal environment in which they live.

A Sustainability Analysis of Two Rapeseed Farming Ecosystems in Khorramabad, Iran Based on Emergy and Economic Analyses

In the past two decades, rapeseed farming has garnered attention, because it offers the possibility of attaining self-sufficiency in the production of edible oil, which is a strategic product for Iran. Therefore, the overarching goal of this research was to provide sound strategies to further the development of rapeseed farming and to increase the sustainability and productivity of rapeseed production systems. Progress toward this goal was made by assessing subsistence and commercial rapeseed production systems in Khorramabad, Iran during the 2017-2018 crop year using both emergy and economic indices. The calculated values of the ESI*, %R, ELR, and ELR* indices showed the higher ecological sustainability of the subsistence farming system compared to the commercial system of rapeseed production. According to these indices, the main reason for the lower sustainability of the commercial rapeseed production system was the large amount of soil organic matter that was lost per unit input of nonrenewable resources used. A large emergy exchange ratio in favor of the buyer, the increased environmental sustainability when the market impact is considered, the lower emergy consumption per unit of output, and the higher productivity of the production factors all reflect the relative advantage of the commercial system based on the indices of EER_Y, EISD, UEV, and total factor productivity (TFP), respectively. Hence, our findings revealed that in the commercial rapeseed production system, the ecologic sustainability of the system can be improved drastically by employing scientific solutions for the comprehensive management of the production ecosystems, especially through the amelioration of soil organic matter and prevention of its loss. Besides improving the farmers' technical knowledge, the integration of small lots into the production system is recommended for improving the economic sustainability of the subsistence production system.

Effects of reproduction and environmental factors on body temperature and activity patterns of wolverines

BACKGROUND

Mammals in the far north are exposed to extreme seasonal changes in environmental conditions, such as temperature and photoperiod, which have notable effects on animal physiology and behaviour. The wolverine (Gulo gulo) is a carnivore with a circumpolar distribution and well-adapted to extreme environmental conditions. Still, ecophysiological studies on free-ranging wolverines are lacking. In this study, we used abdominally implanted body temperature loggers in combination with GPS collars with acceleration sensors on 14 free-ranging wolverines in northern Sweden to study daily and seasonal variation in body temperature and activity patterns. We used generalized additive mixed modelling to investigate body temperature patterns over time and Lomb-Scargle periodogram analysis to analyse circadian rhythms.

RESULTS

We found that wolverines have an average core body temperature of 38.5 ± 0.2 °C with a daily variation of up to 6 °C. Body temperature patterns varied between reproductive states. Pregnant females showed a distinct decrease in body temperature during gestation. Wolverines were active both in day and night, but displayed distinct activity peaks during crepuscular hours. However, body temperature and activity patterns changed seasonally, with a gradual change from a unimodal pattern in winter with concentrated activity during the short period of day light to a bimodal pattern in autumn with activity peaks around dusk and dawn. Wolverines were less likely to display 24-h rhythms in winter, when hours of day light are limited.

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of different biologging techniques gave novel insight into the ecophysiology, activity patterns and reproductive biology of free-ranging wolverines, adding important knowledge to our understanding of animals adapted to cold environments at northern latitudes.

Cumulative effects of climate and landscape change drive spatial distribution of Rocky Mountain wolverine (Gulo gulo L.)

Contemporary landscapes are subject to a multitude of human‐derived stressors. Effects of such stressors are increasingly realized by population declines and large‐scale extirpation of taxa worldwide. Most notably, cumulative effects of climate and landscape change can limit species’ local adaptation and dispersal capabilities, thereby reducing realized niche space and range extent. Resolving the cumulative effects of multiple stressors on species persistence is a pressing challenge in ecology, especially for declining species. For example, wolverines (Gulo gulo L.) persist on only 40% of their historic North American range. While climate change has been shown to be a mechanism of range retractions, anthropogenic landscape disturbance has been recently implicated. We hypothesized these two interact to effect declines. We surveyed wolverine occurrence using camera trapping and genetic tagging at 104 sites at the wolverine range edge, spanning a 15,000 km² gradient of climate, topographic, anthropogenic, and biotic variables. We used occupancy and generalized linear models to disentangle the factors explaining wolverine distribution. Persistent spring snow pack—expected to decrease with climate change—was a significant predictor, but so was anthropogenic landscape change. Canid mesocarnivores, which we hypothesize are competitors supported by anthropogenic landscape change, had comparatively weaker effect. Wolverine population declines and range shifts likely result from climate change and landscape change operating in tandem. We contend that similar results are likely for many species and that research that simultaneously examines climate change, landscape change, and the biotic landscape is warranted. Ecology research and species conservation plans that address these interactions are more likely to meet their objectives.

Trade-offs and efficiencies in optimal budget-constrained multispecies corridor networks

Conservation biologists recognize that a system of isolated protected areas will be necessary but insufficient to meet biodiversity objectives. Current approaches to connecting core conservation areas through corridors consider optimal corridor placement based on a single optimization goal: commonly, maximizing the movement for a target species across a network of protected areas. We show that designing corridors for single species based on purely ecological criteria leads to extremely expensive linkages that are suboptimal for multispecies connectivity objectives. Similarly, acquiring the least-expensive linkages leads to ecologically poor solutions. We developed algorithms for optimizing corridors for multispecies use given a specific budget. We applied our approach in western Montana to demonstrate how the solutions may be used to evaluate trade-offs in connectivity for 2 species with different habitat requirements, different core areas, and different conservation values under different budgets. We evaluated corridors that were optimal for each species individually and for both species jointly. Incorporating a budget constraint and jointly optimizing for both species resulted in corridors that were close to the individual species movement-potential optima but with substantial cost savings. Our approach produced corridors that were within 14% and 11% of the best possible corridor connectivity for grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) and wolverines (Gulo gulo), respectively, and saved 75% of the cost. Similarly, joint optimization under a combined budget resulted in improved connectivity for both species relative to splitting the budget in 2 to optimize for each species individually. Our results demonstrate economies of scale and complementarities conservation planners can achieve by optimizing corridor designs for financial costs and for multiple species connectivity jointly. We believe that our approach will facilitate corridor conservation by reducing acquisition costs and by allowing derived corridors to more closely reflect conservation priorities.

Forecasts of 21st Century Snowpack and Implications for Snowmobile and Snowcoach Use in Yellowstone National Park

Climate models project a general decline in western US snowpack throughout the 21st century, but long-term, spatially fine-grained, management-relevant projections of snowpack are not available for Yellowstone National Park. We focus on the implications that future snow declines may have for oversnow vehicle (snowmobile and snowcoach) use because oversnow tourism is critical to the local economy and has been a contentious issue in the park for more than 30 years. Using temperature-indexed snow melt and accumulation equations with temperature and precipitation data from downscaled global climate models, we forecast the number of days that will be suitable for oversnow travel on each Yellowstone road segment during the mid- and late-21st century. The west entrance road was forecast to be the least suitable for oversnow use in the future while the south entrance road was forecast to remain at near historical levels of driveability. The greatest snow losses were forecast for the west entrance road where as little as 29% of the December-March oversnow season was forecast to be driveable by late century. The climatic conditions that allow oversnow vehicle use in Yellowstone are forecast by our methods to deteriorate significantly in the future. At some point it may be prudent to consider plowing the roads that experience the greatest snow losses.

Wolverine behavior varies spatially with anthropogenic footprint: implications for conservation and inferences about declines

Understanding a species’ behavioral response to rapid environmental change is an ongoing challenge in modern conservation. Anthropogenic landscape modification, or “human footprint,” is well documented as a central cause of large mammal decline and range contractions where the proximal mechanisms of decline are often contentious. Direct mortality is an obvious cause; alternatively, human‐modified landscapes perceived as unsuitable by some species may contribute to shifts in space use through preferential habitat selection. A useful approach to tease these effects apart is to determine whether behaviors potentially associated with risk vary with human footprint. We hypothesized wolverine (Gulo gulo) behaviors vary with different degrees of human footprint. We quantified metrics of behavior, which we assumed to indicate risk perception, from photographic images from a large existing camera‐trapping dataset collected to understand wolverine distribution in the Rocky Mountains of Alberta, Canada. We systematically deployed 164 camera sites across three study areas covering approximately 24,000 km², sampled monthly between December and April (2007–2013). Wolverine behavior varied markedly across the study areas. Variation in behavior decreased with increasing human footprint. Increasing human footprint may constrain potential variation in behavior, through either restricting behavioral plasticity or individual variation in areas of high human impact. We hypothesize that behavioral constraints may indicate an increase in perceived risk in human‐modified landscapes. Although survival is obviously a key contributor to species population decline and range loss, behavior may also make a significant contribution.

Recovery of large carnivores in Europe's modern human-dominated landscapes

The conservation of large carnivores is a formidable challenge for biodiversity conservation. Using a data set on the past and current status of brown bears (Ursus arctos), Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), gray wolves (Canis lupus), and wolverines (Gulo gulo) in European countries, we show that roughly one-third of mainland Europe hosts at least one large carnivore species, with stable or increasing abundance in most cases in 21st-century records. The reasons for this overall conservation success include protective legislation, supportive public opinion, and a variety of practices making coexistence between large carnivores and people possible. The European situation reveals that large carnivores and people can share the same landscape.

Incorporating cold-air pooling into downscaled climate models increases potential refugia for snow-dependent species within the Sierra Nevada Ecoregion, CA

We present a unique water-balance approach for modeling snowpack under historic, current and future climates throughout the Sierra Nevada Ecoregion. Our methodology uses a finer scale (270 m) than previous regional studies and incorporates cold-air pooling, an atmospheric process that sustains cooler temperatures in topographic depressions thereby mitigating snowmelt. Our results are intended to support management and conservation of snow-dependent species, which requires characterization of suitable habitat under current and future climates. We use the wolverine (Gulo gulo) as an example species and investigate potential habitat based on the depth and extent of spring snowpack within four National Park units with proposed wolverine reintroduction programs. Our estimates of change in spring snowpack conditions under current and future climates are consistent with recent studies that generally predict declining snowpack. However, model development at a finer scale and incorporation of cold-air pooling increased the persistence of April 1^st snowpack. More specifically, incorporation of cold-air pooling into future climate projections increased April 1^st snowpack by 6.5% when spatially averaged over the study region and the trajectory of declining April 1^st snowpack reverses at mid-elevations where snow pack losses are mitigated by topographic shading and cold-air pooling. Under future climates with sustained or increased precipitation, our results indicate a high likelihood for the persistence of late spring snowpack at elevations above approximately 2,800 m and identify potential climate refugia sites for snow-dependent species at mid-elevations, where significant topographic shading and cold-air pooling potential exist.

The relationship between wolverine and larger predators, lynx and wolf, in a historical ecosystem context

Apex predators play an important role in shaping ecosystem structure. They may suppress smaller predators (mesopredators) but also subsidize scavengers via carrion provisioning. However, the importance of these interactions can change with ecosystem context. The wolverine (Gulo gulo) is a cold-adapted carnivore and facultative scavenger. It has a circumboreal distribution, where it could be either suppressed or subsidized by larger predators. In Scandinavia, the wolverine might interact with two larger predators, wolf (Canis lupus) and lynx (Lynx lynx), but human persecution decimated the populations in the nineteenth and early twentieth century. We investigated potential relationships between wolverine and the larger predators using hunting bag statistics from 15 Norwegian and Swedish counties in 1846-1922. Our best models showed a positive association between wolverine and lynx trends, taking ecological and human factors into account. There was also a positive association between year-to-year fluctuations in wolverine and wolf in the latter part of the study period. We suggest these associations could result from positive lynx-wolverine interactions through carrion provisioning, while wolves might both suppress wolverine and provide carrion with the net effect becoming positive when wolf density drops below a threshold. Wolverines could thus benefit from lynx presence and low-to-intermediate wolf densities.

Spatially explicit power analyses for occupancy-based monitoring of wolverine in the U.S. Rocky Mountains

Conservation scientists and resource managers often have to design monitoring programs for species that are rare or patchily distributed across large landscapes. Such programs are frequently expensive and seldom can be conducted by one entity. It is essential that a prospective power analysis be undertaken to ensure stated monitoring goals are feasible. We developed a spatially based simulation program that accounts for natural history, habitat use, and sampling scheme to investigate the power of monitoring protocols to detect trends in population abundance over time with occupancy-based methods. We analyzed monitoring schemes with different sampling efforts for wolverine (Gulo gulo) populations in 2 areas of the U.S. Rocky Mountains. The relation between occupancy and abundance was nonlinear and depended on landscape, population size, and movement parameters. With current estimates for population size and detection probability in the northern U.S. Rockies, most sampling schemes were only able to detect large declines in abundance in the simulations (i.e., 50% decline over 10 years). For small populations reestablishing in the Southern Rockies, occupancy-based methods had enough power to detect population trends only when populations were increasing dramatically (e.g., doubling or tripling in 10 years), regardless of sampling effort. In general, increasing the number of cells sampled or the per-visit detection probability had a much greater effect on power than the number of visits conducted during a survey. Although our results are specific to wolverines, this approach could easily be adapted to other territorial species.

Phylogeography and post-glacial recolonization in wolverines (Gulo gulo) from across their circumpolar distribution

Interglacial-glacial cycles of the Quaternary are widely recognized in shaping phylogeographic structure. Patterns from cold adapted species can be especially informative - in particular, uncovering additional glacial refugia, identifying likely recolonization patterns, and increasing our understanding of species' responses to climate change. We investigated phylogenetic structure of the wolverine, a wide-ranging cold adapted carnivore, using a 318 bp of the mitochondrial DNA control region for 983 wolverines (n=209 this study, n=774 from GenBank) from across their full Holarctic distribution. Bayesian phylogenetic tree reconstruction and the distribution of observed pairwise haplotype differences (mismatch distribution) provided evidence of a single rapid population expansion across the wolverine's Holarctic range. Even though molecular evidence corroborated a single refugium, significant subdivisions of population genetic structure (0.01< ΦST <0.99, P<0.05) were detected. Pairwise ΦST estimates separated Scandinavia from Russia and Mongolia, and identified five main divisions within North America - the Central Arctic, a western region, an eastern region consisting of Ontario and Quebec/Labrador, Manitoba, and California. These data are in contrast to the nearly panmictic structure observed in northwestern North America using nuclear microsatellites, but largely support the nuclear DNA separation of contemporary Manitoba and Ontario wolverines from northern populations. Historic samples (c. 1900) from the functionally extirpated eastern population of Quebec/Labrador displayed genetic similarities to contemporary Ontario wolverines. To understand these divergence patterns, four hypotheses were tested using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). The most supported hypothesis was a single Beringia incursion during the last glacial maximum that established the northwestern population, followed by a west-to-east colonization during the Holocene. This pattern is suggestive of colonization occurring in accordance with glacial retreat, and supports expansion from a single refugium. These data are significant relative to current discussions on the conservation status of this species across its range.

Space-for-time substitution works in everglades ecological forecasting models

Space-for-time substitution is often used in predictive models because long-term time-series data are not available. Critics of this method suggest factors other than the target driver may affect ecosystem response and could vary spatially, producing misleading results. Monitoring data from the Florida Everglades were used to test whether spatial data can be substituted for temporal data in forecasting models. Spatial models that predicted bluefin killifish (Lucania goodei) population response to a drying event performed comparably and sometimes better than temporal models. Models worked best when results were not extrapolated beyond the range of variation encompassed by the original dataset. These results were compared to other studies to determine whether ecosystem features influence whether space-for-time substitution is feasible. Taken in the context of other studies, these results suggest space-for-time substitution may work best in ecosystems with low beta-diversity, high connectivity between sites, and small lag in organismal response to the driver variable.

Wolverines (Gulo gulo luscus) on the Rocky Mountain slopes: natural heterogeneity and landscape alteration as predictors of distribution

A species’ occurrence can be influenced by natural and anthropogenic factors; disentangling these is a precursor to understanding the mechanisms of distribution. Anthropogenic factors may be especially important at contracting range edges. We test this premise for wolverines (Gulo gulo luscus L., 1758) at the edge of their Rocky Mountain range in Alberta, Canada, a mosaic of natural heterogeneity and extensive landscape development. As wolverines have a suspected negative response to human activity, we hypothesized their occurrence on the Rockies’ slopes is predicted by a combination of natural and anthropogenic features. We surveyed wolverines at 120 sites along a natural and anthropogenic gradient using hair trapping and noninvasive genetic tagging. We used abundance estimation, generalized linear, and hierarchical models to determine whether abundance and occurrence was best predicted by natural land cover, topography, footprint, or a combination. Wolverines were more abundant in rugged areas protected from anthropogenic development. Wolverines were less likely to occur at sites with oil and gas exploration, forest harvest, or burned areas, even after accounting for the effect of topography. The relative paucity of wolverines in human-impacted portions of this range edge suggests that effective conservation requires managing landscape development, and research on the proximal mechanisms behind this relationship.