The inter-rater reliability of the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index

Validation of the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index Risk Classification and the 2019 European Society of Cardiology Risk Stratification in the Southeast Asian Population with Acute Pulmonary Embolism

AIM

To date, no studies representing the Southeast Asian population have validated the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) and 2019 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) risk stratification. Therefore, this study aimed to validate the PESI score, simplified PESI (sPESI), PESI risk classification, and 2019 ESC risk stratification in Southeast Asian patients with acute pulmonary embolism (APE).

METHODS

The present study is a 10-year cross-sectional study. Here, risk regressions were conducted to identify the PESI risk classification, sPESI, and 2019 ESC risk stratification as predictors for 30-day all-cause and PE-related mortalities. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed to determine the diagnostic ability of the PESI score, sPESI score, PESI risk classification, and 2019 ESC risk stratification to predict 30-day mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 696 patients (male, 286; female, 410; mean age, 57.7±15.7 years) were included in this study from 2011 to 2020. The risk of 30-day all-cause mortality progressively increased with the 2019 ESC risk stratification, being approximately 6-fold higher in the high-risk than in the low-risk class [risk ratio: 6.24 (95% confidence interval (CI), 3.12, 12.47), P＜0.001]. The risk of 30-day all-cause mortality with the PESI risk classification also increased with the risk classes, being approximately 6-fold higher in class V than in class I [adjusted risk ratio: 5.91 (95% CI, 2.25, 15.51), P＜0.001]. The highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AuROC) of the predictive model was the PESI score [AuROC=0.733 (95% CI, 0.685, 0.782)].

CONCLUSION

Our study represents a good validation of the PESI and 2019 ESC risk stratification to predict 30-day mortality after APE diagnosis in the Southeast Asian population.

Effectiveness and safety of rivaroxaban in patients with venous thromboembolism and active cancer: A subanalysis of the J'xactly study

BACKGROUND

Data on the effectiveness and safety of rivaroxaban for the treatment of patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE) and active cancer are limited in the Japanese real-world setting.

METHODS

In this subanalysis of the J'xactly study, which was a multicenter, prospective, observational study, we evaluated the effectiveness and safety of rivaroxaban in patients with acute VTE and active cancer (n = 193) versus those without active cancer (n = 823).

RESULTS

Compared with patients without active cancer, those with active cancer demonstrated a significantly different age distribution, with fewer aged <65 and ≥75 years; a lower proportion of women; a lower mean body mass index; and a lower proportion of physical inactivity, injury, thrombophilia, and heart failure. There was no difference in the initial dose distribution of rivaroxaban between patients with and without active cancer. The incidences of recurrence or aggravation of symptomatic VTE and major bleeding were not significantly different [VTE: 1.44 % vs. 2.80 % per patient-year, hazard ratio (HR) 0.50, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.18-1.39, p = 0.172; major bleeding: 4.49 % vs. 2.55 % per patient-year, HR 1.80, 95 % CI 0.82-3.95, p = 0.137]. Approximately 10 % of patients with active cancer died at 6 months, with a significantly higher cumulative all-cause mortality rate than those without active cancer (23.29 % vs. 2.03 % per patient-year, HR 11.31, 95 % CI 7.30-17.53, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with VTE and active cancer, rivaroxaban showed acceptable effectiveness, although clinically significant bleeding remains a concern.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

UMIN Clinical Trials Registry number, UMIN000025072.

A retrospective analysis of outcomes in low- and intermediate-high-risk pulmonary embolism patients managed on an ambulatory medical unit in the UK

Pulmonary embolism (PE) is common and guidelines recommend outpatient care only for PE patients with low predicted mortality. Outcomes for patients with intermediate-to-high predicted mortality managed as outpatients are unknown. Electronic records were analysed for adults with PE managed on our ambulatory care unit over 2 years. Patients were stratified into low or intermediate-to-high mortality risk groups using the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI). Primary outcomes were the proportion of patients ambulated, 30-day all-cause mortality, 30-day PE-specific mortality and 30-day re-admission rate. Of 199 PE patients, 74% were ambulated and at 30 days, all-cause mortality was 2% (four out of 199) and PE-specific mortality was 1% (two out of 199). Ambulated patients had lower PESI scores, better vital signs and lower troponin levels (morning attendance favoured ambulation). Over a third of ambulated patients had an intermediate-to-high risk PESI score but their all-cause mortality rate was low at 1.9% (one out of 52). In patients with intermediate-to-high risk, oxygen saturation was higher and pulse rate lower in those who were ambulated. Re-admission rate did not differ between ambulated and admitted patients. Two-thirds of patients with intermediate-to-high risk PE were ambulated and their mortality rate remained low. It is possible for selected patients with intermediate-to-high risk PESI scores to be safely ambulated.

Automated volumetric analysis of four cardiac chambers in pulmonary embolism

Identification of patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) who might be at risk of circulatory collapse by using a fast, automated system is highly desired. It was our objective to investigate whether automated cardiac volumetric analysis following computerised tomographic pulmonary angiography (CTPA) is useful to identify increased clot load and adverse prognosis in patients with acute PE. We retrospectively analysed a consecutive series of non-gated CTPA studies of 124 patients with acute PE and 43 controls. Right and left ventricular diameters (RV/LV) were measured on four-chamber view, while each cardiac chamber underwent automatic volumetric measurements. Findings were correlated to the pulmonary arterial obstruction index (PAOI). Outcome was expressed by admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) or mortality within 30 days. There was a significant positive correlation between the PAOI and the volumes of the right side cavities (r=0.25 for the atrium and r=0.49 for the ventricle), and between the right-to-left atrial and ventricular volume ratios (r=0.49 and r=0.57, respectively). Results for the combined outcome of mortality or ICU admission that fell in the upper tertile of the right atrial and right ventricular volumes yielded hazard ratios of 3.9 and 3.3, respectively, compared to those in the lower tertile. RV/LV diameter ratio did not correlate with outcome. In conclusion, adverse outcome and significant pulmonary clot load in patients with acute PE are associated with a volume shift towards right heart cavities, which correlates to prognosis better than the CT-measured RV/LV diameter ratio, suggesting the advantage of using fast fully automatic volumetric analysis to identify patients at risk.

Cardiac troponin testing and the simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index

A low simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (sPESI), defined as age ≤80 years and absence of systemic hypotension, tachycardia, hypoxia, cancer, heart failure, and lung disease, identifies low-risk patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). It is unknown whether cardiac troponin testing improves the prediction of clinical outcomes if the sPESI is not low. In the prospective Swiss Venous Thromboembolism Registry, 369 patients with acute PE and a troponin test (conventional troponin T or I, highly sensitive troponin T) were enrolled from 18 hospitals. A positive test result was defined as a troponin level above the manufacturers assay threshold. Among the 106 (29%) patients with low sPESI, the rate of mortality or PE recurrence at 30 days was 1.0%. Among the 263 (71%) patients with high sPESI, 177 (67%) were troponin-negative and 86 (33%) troponin-positive; the rate of mortality or PE recurrence at 30 days was 4.6% vs. 12.8% (p=0.015), respectively. Overall, risk assessment with a troponin test (hazard ratio [HR] 3.39, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.38–8.37; p=0.008) maintained its prognostic value for mortality or PE recurrence when adjusted for sPESI (HR 5.80, 95%CI 0.76–44.10; p=0.09). The combination of sPESI with a troponin test resulted in a greater area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.63–0.81) than sPESI alone (HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.57–0.68) (p=0.023). In conclusion, although cardiac troponin testing may not be required in patients with a low sPESI, it adds prognostic value for early death and recurrence for patients with a high sPESI.

Prognostic models in acute pulmonary embolism: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To review the evidence for existing prognostic models in acute pulmonary embolism (PE) and determine how valid and useful they are for predicting patient outcomes.

DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

DATA SOURCES

OVID MEDLINE and EMBASE, and The Cochrane Library from inception to July 2014, and sources of grey literature.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Studies aiming at constructing, validating, updating or studying the impact of prognostic models to predict all-cause death, PE-related death or venous thromboembolic events up to a 3-month follow-up in patients with an acute symptomatic PE.

DATA EXTRACTION

Study characteristics and study quality using prognostic criteria. Studies were selected and data extracted by 2 reviewers.

DATA ANALYSIS

Summary estimates (95% CI) for proportion of risk groups and event rates within risk groups, and accuracy.

RESULTS

We included 71 studies (44,298 patients). Among them, 17 were model construction studies specific to PE prognosis. The most validated models were the PE Severity Index (PESI) and its simplified version (sPESI). The overall 30-day mortality rate was 2.3% (1.7% to 2.9%) in the low-risk group and 11.4% (9.9% to 13.1%) in the high-risk group for PESI (9 studies), and 1.5% (0.9% to 2.5%) in the low-risk group and 10.7% (8.8% to12.9%) in the high-risk group for sPESI (11 studies). PESI has proved clinically useful in an impact study. Shifting the cut-off or using novel and updated models specifically developed for normotensive PE improves the ability for identifying patients at lower risk for early death or adverse outcome (0.5-1%) and those at higher risk (up to 20-29% of event rate).

CONCLUSIONS

We provide evidence-based information about the validity and utility of the existing prognostic models in acute PE that may be helpful for identifying patients at low risk. Novel models seem attractive for the high-risk normotensive PE but need to be externally validated then be assessed in impact studies.

Use of rivaroxaban in an elderly patient with intermediate-low early mortality risk due to pulmonary embolism: a case report

Introduction

Pulmonary embolism remains one of the leading causes of cardiovascular mortality. The standard treatment for pulmonary embolism is anticoagulant therapy using low molecular weight heparin, fondaparinux and a vitamin K antagonist, but a recent clinical trial showed that rivaroxaban, an oral factor Xa inhibitor, was as effective as standard therapy for the initial and long-term treatment of pulmonary embolism and had less bleeding complications.

Case presentation

The present report describes the case of an 80-year-old white man with an intermediate to low early mortality risk of pulmonary embolism. He was successfully treated with rivaroxaban (administered orally as monotherapy), demonstrating rapid benefit without any adverse events.

Conclusion

Rivaroxaban, particularly in the acute phase of pulmonary embolism, may be considered an effective and safe therapeutic choice even in elderly patients, a population less represented in clinical trials.

Treatment of pulmonary embolism with rivaroxaban: outcomes by simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index score from a post hoc analysis of the EINSTEIN PE study

OBJECTIVES

The objective was to assess adverse outcomes in relation to the simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) score in patients treated with rivaroxaban or standard therapy in the phase III EINSTEIN PE study and to evaluate the utility of the simplified PESI score to identify low-risk pulmonary embolism (PE) patients.

METHODS

A post hoc analysis of EINSTEIN PE data was performed to assess the efficacy and safety of rivaroxaban in patients with a range of simplified PESI scores. Recurrent venous thromboembolism, fatal PE, all-cause mortality, and major bleeding were stratified by simplified PESI scores of 0, 1, or ≥2 and according to treatment period at 7, 14, 30, and 90 days and at the end of the full intended treatment period.

RESULTS

Simplified PESI scores could be calculated in 4,831 of the 4,832 randomized patients; of those, 53.6, 36.7, and 9.7% had PESI scores of 0, 1, and ≥2, respectively. Among patients with simplified PESI scores of 0 or 1, fatal PE, all-cause mortality, and other adverse outcomes were uncommon within the first 7, 14, and 30 days. Patients with simplified PESI scores of ≥2 had more frequent adverse outcomes. Major bleeding was lower in the rivaroxaban group, particularly in those with simplified PESI scores of 1 or ≥2.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings support using risk stratification with the simplified PESI score to identify low-risk patients with PE.

Developing a complex intervention for the outpatient management of incidentally diagnosed pulmonary embolism in cancer patients

Background

Most patients with pulmonary embolism (PE) spend 5–7 days in hospital even though only 4.5% will develop serious complications during this time. In particular, the group of patients with incidentally diagnosed PE (i-PE) includes many patients with low risk features potentially ideal for outpatient management; however the evidence for their optimal management is lacking hence relative practices may vary considerably. We describe the development process, components, links and function of a nurse-led service for the management of patients with i-PE, developed in accordance to the UK Medical Research Council complex intervention guidance.

Methods

Phase 0 (Theoretical underpinning): The Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) was selected for patient risk assessment and the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) guideline for the management of PE in cancer patients (2007) was selected as quality measure. Historical registry and audit data from our centre regarding i-PE incidence and management for the period between 2006 and 2009 illustrating the then current practices were reviewed. Phase 1 (Modelling): Modelling of the pathway included the following: a) Identification of training needs, planning and implementation of training schemes and development of transferable competencies and training materials. b) Mapping patient pathways and flow and c) Production of key documentation and Standard Operating Procedures for the delivery of the service.

Results

Phase 2 (Implementation and testing of the intervention): During the initial 12 months of implementation, remedial action was taken to address identified deficiencies regarding patient referral to the pathway, compliance with treatment protocol, patient follow up, selection challenges from the use of PESI in cancer patients and challenges regarding the “first-pass” identification of i-PE.

Conclusion

We have developed and piloted a complex intervention to manage cancer patients with incidental PE in an outpatient setting. Adherence to evidence- based care, improvement of communication between professionals and patients, and improved quality of data is demonstrated.

Prognostic clinical prediction rules to identify a low-risk pulmonary embolism: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Prognostic assessment is important for the management of patients with a pulmonary embolism (PE). A number of clinical prediction rules (CPRs) have been proposed for stratifying PE mortality risk. The aim of this systematic review was to assess the performance of prognostic CPRs in identifying a low-risk PE.

METHODS

MEDLINE and EMBASE databases were systematically searched until August 2011. Derivation and validation studies that assessed the performance of prognostic CPRs in predicting adverse events-risk in PE patients were included. Weighted mean proportion and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of adverse events were then calculated and pooled using a fixed and a random-effects model. Statistical heterogeneity was evaluated through the use of I(2) statistics.

RESULTS

Of 1125 references in the original search, 33 relevant articles were included. Nine CPRs were assessed in 37 cohorts, for a total of 35,518 patients. Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index and prognostic Geneva CPR were investigated in 22 and 6 cohorts, respectively. Eleven (29.7%) cohorts were of high quality. The median follow-up was 30 days. In low-risk PE patients, pooled short-term mortality (within 14 days or less) was 0.7% (95% CI 0.3-1.1%, random-effects model; I(2) = 49.6%), 30-day mortality was 1.7% (95% CI 1.1-2.3%, random-effects model; I(2) = 82.4%) and 90-day mortality was 2.2% (95% CI 1.2-3.4%, random-effects model; I(2) = 59.8%).

CONCLUSIONS

Prognostic CPRs efficiently identify PE patients at a low risk of mortality. Before implementing prognostic CPRs in the routine care of PE patients, well-designed management studies are warranted.

Antithrombotic therapy for VTE disease: Antithrombotic Therapy and Prevention of Thrombosis, 9th ed: American College of Chest Physicians Evidence-Based Clinical Practice Guidelines

BACKGROUND

This article addresses the treatment of VTE disease.

METHODS

We generated strong (Grade 1) and weak (Grade 2) recommendations based on high-quality (Grade A), moderate-quality (Grade B), and low-quality (Grade C) evidence.

RESULTS

For acute DVT or pulmonary embolism (PE), we recommend initial parenteral anticoagulant therapy (Grade 1B) or anticoagulation with rivaroxaban. We suggest low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) or fondaparinux over IV unfractionated heparin (Grade 2C) or subcutaneous unfractionated heparin (Grade 2B). We suggest thrombolytic therapy for PE with hypotension (Grade 2C). For proximal DVT or PE, we recommend treatment of 3 months over shorter periods (Grade 1B). For a first proximal DVT or PE that is provoked by surgery or by a nonsurgical transient risk factor, we recommend 3 months of therapy (Grade 1B; Grade 2B if provoked by a nonsurgical risk factor and low or moderate bleeding risk); that is unprovoked, we suggest extended therapy if bleeding risk is low or moderate (Grade 2B) and recommend 3 months of therapy if bleeding risk is high (Grade 1B); and that is associated with active cancer, we recommend extended therapy (Grade 1B; Grade 2B if high bleeding risk) and suggest LMWH over vitamin K antagonists (Grade 2B). We suggest vitamin K antagonists or LMWH over dabigatran or rivaroxaban (Grade 2B). We suggest compression stockings to prevent the postthrombotic syndrome (Grade 2B). For extensive superficial vein thrombosis, we suggest prophylactic-dose fondaparinux or LMWH over no anticoagulation (Grade 2B), and suggest fondaparinux over LMWH (Grade 2C).

CONCLUSION

Strong recommendations apply to most patients, whereas weak recommendations are sensitive to differences among patients, including their preferences.

Outpatient versus inpatient treatment for patients with acute pulmonary embolism: an international, open-label, randomised, non-inferiority trial

BACKGROUND

Although practice guidelines recommend outpatient care for selected, haemodynamically stable patients with pulmonary embolism, most treatment is presently inpatient based. We aimed to assess non-inferiority of outpatient care compared with inpatient care.

METHODS

We undertook an open-label, randomised non-inferiority trial at 19 emergency departments in Switzerland, France, Belgium, and the USA. We randomly assigned patients with acute, symptomatic pulmonary embolism and a low risk of death (pulmonary embolism severity index risk classes I or II) with a computer-generated randomisation sequence (blocks of 2-4) in a 1:1 ratio to initial outpatient (ie, discharged from hospital ≤24 h after randomisation) or inpatient treatment with subcutaneous enoxaparin (≥5 days) followed by oral anticoagulation (≥90 days). The primary outcome was symptomatic, recurrent venous thromboembolism within 90 days; safety outcomes included major bleeding within 14 or 90 days and mortality within 90 days. We used a non-inferiority margin of 4% for a difference between inpatient and outpatient groups. We included all enrolled patients in the primary analysis, excluding those lost to follow-up. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00425542.

FINDINGS

Between February, 2007, and June, 2010, we enrolled 344 eligible patients. In the primary analysis, one (0·6%) of 171 outpatients developed recurrent venous thromboembolism within 90 days compared with none of 168 inpatients (95% upper confidence limit [UCL] 2·7%; p=0·011). Only one (0·6%) patient in each treatment group died within 90 days (95% UCL 2·1%; p=0·005), and two (1·2%) of 171 outpatients and no inpatients had major bleeding within 14 days (95% UCL 3·6%; p=0·031). By 90 days, three (1·8%) outpatients but no inpatients had developed major bleeding (95% UCL 4·5%; p=0·086). Mean length of stay was 0·5 days (SD 1·0) for outpatients and 3·9 days (SD 3·1) for inpatients.

INTERPRETATION

In selected low-risk patients with pulmonary embolism, outpatient care can safely and effectively be used in place of inpatient care.

FUNDING

Swiss National Science Foundation, Programme Hospitalier de Recherche Clinique, and the US National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute. Sanofi-Aventis provided free drug supply in the participating European centres.

A comparison of the original and simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index

The Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) is a validated clinical prognostic model for patients with pulmonary embolism (PE). Recently, a simplified version of the PESI was developed. We sought to compare the prognostic performance of the original and simplified PESI. Using data from 15,531 patients with PE, we compared the proportions of patients classified as low versus higher risk between the original and simplified PESI and estimated 30-day mortality within each risk group. To assess the models' accuracy to predict mortality, we calculated sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values and likelihood ratios for low- versus higher-risk patients. We also compared the models' discriminative power by calculating the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve. The overall 30-day mortality was 9.3%. The original PESI classified a significantly greater proportion of patients as low-risk than the simplified PESI (40.9% vs. 36.8%; p<0.001). Low-risk patients based on the original and simplified PESI had a mortality of 2.3% and 2.7%, respectively. The original and simplified PESI had similar sensitivities (90% vs. 89%), negative predictive values (98% vs. 97%), and negative likelihood ratios (0.23 vs. 0.28) for predicting mortality. The original PESI had a significantly greater discriminatory power than the simplified PESI (area under the ROC curve 0.78 [95% CI: 0.77-0.79] vs. 0.72 [95% CI: 0.71-0.74]; p<0.001). In conclusion, even though the simplified PESI accurately identified patients at low-risk of adverse outcomes, the original PESI classified a higher proportion of patients as low-risk and had a greater discriminatory power than the simplified PESI.

Association between the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) and short-term clinical deterioration

The Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) has been shown to predict 30 and 90 day mortality after PE. However, whether the PESI predicts patients who will be free of clinically adverse outcomes during a typical hospitalisation is not known. Retrospective analysis of Emergency Department patients with PE from May 2006 to April 2008. We compiled demographics, data to calculate the PESI and a composite outcome. Patients were considered to have a negative PESI if they were in category I or II (≤85 points). Patients were considered to have the composite outcome if, within five days of diagnosis, they: A) had recurrent PE; B) developed a new cardiac dysrhythmia; C) required advanced cardiac life support; D) required respiratory support; E) required vasopressors; F) received thrombolysis; G) had major bleeding; H) returned to the ED; I) died. We enrolled 245 patients with PE. Of these, 115 (47%) were male, 204 (83%) were white. The mean age was 57 ± 17 years. The PESI identified 109 (44%) as low risk and 136 (56%) as high risk. Sixty-one (26%) patients had the outcome, of whom nine (14%) were characterised as low risk by the PESI. Test characteristics were: sensitivity 86% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 75%-93%), specificity 55% (95% CI: 47%-62%), NPV 63% (95% CI: 55%-70%), PPV 40% (95% CI: 31%-49%), LR(+) 1.9 (95% CI: 1.57-2.30) and LR(-) 0.26 (95% CI: 0.14-0.48). Of the patients who had an adverse clinical event or required a hospital-based intervention within the first five days after PE diagnosis, 14% were categorised by the PESI as safe for discharge [corrected] .