Pre-admission functional status impacts the performance of the APACHE IV model of mortality prediction in critically ill patients

Using Performance Status to Identify Risk of Acute Care Transfer in Inpatient Cancer Rehabilitation

OBJECTIVE

To identify patient factors associated with acute care transfer (ACT) among cancer survivors admitted for inpatient medical rehabilitation.

DESIGN

An exploratory, observational design was used to analyze retrospective data from electronic medical records.

SETTING

Data were obtained from 3 separate inpatient rehabilitation hospitals within a private rehabilitation hospital system in the Northeast.

PARTICIPANTS

Medical records were reviewed and analyzed for a total of 416 patients with a confirmed oncologic diagnosis treated in 1 of the inpatient rehabilitation hospitals between January and December 2020.

INTERVENTIONS

Not applicable.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome measure was the incidence of an ACT. Covariates included the adapted Karnofsky Performance Scale (KPS) for inpatient rehabilitation, demographic information, admission date, re-admission status, discharge destination, and cancer-related variables, such as primary cancer diagnosis and presence/location of metastases.

RESULTS

One in 5 patients (21.2%) were transferred to acute care. Patients with hematologic cancer had a higher risk of ACT compared with those with central nervous system (CNS) cancer. Lower functional status, measured by the adapted KPS, was associated with a higher likelihood of ACT. Patients with an admission KPS score indicating the need for maximum assistance had the highest transfer rate (59.1%).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings highlight the medical complexity of this population and increased risk of an interrupted rehabilitation stay. Considering patients' performance status, cancer type, and extent of disease may be important when assessing the appropriateness of IRF admission relative to patient quality of life. Earlier and improved understanding of the patient's prognosis will allow the cancer rehabilitation program to meet the patient's unique needs and facilitate an appropriate discharge to the community in an optimal window of time.

Worse pre-admission quality of life is a strong predictor of mortality in critically ill patients

Objectives

In this study, we aimed to investigate whether quality of life (QoL) before intensive care unit (ICU) admission could predict ICU mortality in critically ill patients.

Patients and methods

Between January 2019 and April 2019, a total of 105 ICU patients (54 males, 51 females; mean age: 58 years; range, 18 to 91 years) from two ICUs of a tertiary care hospital were included in this cross-sectional, prospective study. Pre-admission QoL was measured by the Short Form (SF)-12- Physical Component Scores (PCS) and Mental Component Scores (MCS) and EuroQoL five-dimension, five-level scale (EQ-5D-5L) within 24 h of ICU admission and mortality rates were estimated.

Results

The overall mortality rate was 28.5%. Pre-admission QoL was worse in the non-survivors independent from age, sex, socioeconomic and education status, and comorbidities. During the hospitalization, the rate of sepsis and ventilator/hospital-acquired pneumonia were similar among the two groups (p>0.05). Logistic regression analysis adjusted for sex, age, education status, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scores showed that pre-admission functional status as assessed by the SF-12 MCS (odds ratio [OR]: 14,2; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.5-79.0), SF-12 PCS (OR: 10.6; 95% CI: 1.8-62.7), and EQ-5D-5L (OR: 8.0; 95% CI: 1.5-44.5) were found to be independently associated with mortality.

Conclusion

Worse pre-admission QoL is a strong predictor of mortality in critically ill patients. The SF-12 and EQ-5D-5L scores are both valuable tools for this assessment. Not only the physical status, but also the mental status before ICU admission should be evaluated in terms of QoL to better utilize ICU resources.

Developing a Decision-Making Framework to Improve Healthcare Service Quality during a Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted almost every sector. This impact has been especially felt in the healthcare sector, as the pandemic has affected its stability, which has highlighted the need for improvements in service. As such, we propose a collaborative decision-making framework that is capable of accounting for the goals of multiple stakeholders, which consequently enables an optimal, consensus decision to be identified. The proposed framework utilizes the best–worst method (BWM) and the Multi-Actor Multi-Criteria Analysis (MAMCA) methodology to capture and rank each stakeholder’s preferences, followed by the application of a Multi-Objective Linear Programming (MOLP) model to identify the consensus solution. To demonstrate the applicability of the framework, two hypothetical scenarios involving improving patient care in an intensive care unit (ICU) are considered. Scenario 1 reflects all selected criteria under each stakeholder, whereas in Scenario 2, every stakeholder identifies their preferred set of criteria based on their experience and work background. The results for both scenarios indicate that hiring part-time physicians and medical staff can be the effective solution for improving service quality in the ICU. The developed integrated framework will help the decision makers to identify optimal courses of action in real-time and to select sustainable and effective strategies for improving service quality in the healthcare sector.

Mortality prediction in intensive care units including premorbid functional status improved performance and internal validity

OBJECTIVE

Prognostic models are key for benchmarking intensive care units (ICUs). They require up-to-date predictors and should report transportability properties for reliable predictions. We developed and validated an in-hospital mortality risk prediction model to facilitate benchmarking, quality assurance, and health economics evaluation.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We retrieved data from the database of an international (Finland, Estonia, Switzerland) multicenter ICU cohort study from 2015 to 2017. We used a hierarchical logistic regression model that included age, a modified Simplified Acute Physiology Score-II, admission type, premorbid functional status, and diagnosis as grouping variable. We used pooled and meta-analytic cross-validation approaches to assess temporal and geographical transportability.

RESULTS

We included 61,224 patients treated in the ICU (hospital mortality 10.6%). The developed prediction model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.886, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.882-0.890; a calibration slope 1.01, 95% CI (0.99-1.03); a mean calibration -0.004, 95% CI (-0.035 to 0.027). Although the model showed very good internal validity and geographic discrimination transportability, we found substantial heterogeneity of performance measures between ICUs (I-squared: 53.4-84.7%).

CONCLUSION

A novel framework evaluating the performance of our prediction model provided key information to judge the validity of our model and its adaptation for future use.

[Factors influencing the survival prognosis in older adults]

AIM

The present study examined the predictive factors for the survival prognosis in older adults.

METHODS

The subjects were 431 patients (75-99 years old) who visited our hospital between April 2016 and March 2019. Multivariate analyses were conducted to clarify the survival prognosis (P <0.05).

RESULTS

In a Cox regression analysis, the significant factors for the survival were the age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.050, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.014-1.087), Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) (low vs. medium: HR 0.106, 95% CI 0.032-0.353; low vs. high: HR 0.244, 95% CI 0.150-0.398; low vs. very high: HR 0.514, 95% CI 0.326-0.809), pre-hospitalized gait (HR 1.861, 95% CI 1.158-2.988), sitting at discharge (HR 0.429, 95% CI 0.277-0.663), subcutaneous adipose tissue index (SATI) (HR 0.988, 95% CI 0.979-0.997) and modified controlling nutritional status (m-CONUT) (normal vs. light: HR 0.114, 95% CI 0.042-0.311; normal vs. moderate: HR 0.235, 95% CI 0.110-0.502; normal vs. severe: HR 0.351, 95% CI 0.166-0.741). In decision tree analyses, the significant factors for the 1-year survival were a CCI of low >medium >high-very high, body mass index of >20.7 kg/m², m-CONUT of normal-light >moderate-severe and sitting at discharge, and those for the 2-year survival were sitting at discharge, a SATI of >43.9 cm²m^-2, a CCI of low-medium >high-very high, male <female and m-CONUT of normal-light >moderate-severe.

CONCLUSIONS

High SATI and body mass index values appeared to be associated with better survival outcomes.

Predictors of death and new disability after critical illness: a multicentre prospective cohort study

PURPOSE

This study aimed to determine the prevalence and predictors of death or new disability following critical illness.

METHODS

Prospective, multicentre cohort study conducted in six metropolitan intensive care units (ICU). Participants were adults admitted to the ICU who received more than 24 h of mechanical ventilation. The primary outcome was death or new disability at 6 months, with new disability defined by a 10% increase in the WHODAS 2.0.

RESULTS

Of 628 patients with the primary outcome available (median age of 62 [49-71] years, 379 [61.0%] had a medical admission and 370 (58.9%) died or developed new disability by 6 months. Independent predictors of death or new disability included age [OR 1.02 (1.01-1.03), P = 0.001], higher severity of illness (APACHE III) [OR 1.02 (1.01-1.03), P < 0.001] and admission diagnosis. Compared to patients with a surgical admission diagnosis, patients with a cardiac arrest [OR (95% CI) 4.06 (1.89-8.68), P < 0.001], sepsis [OR (95% CI) 2.43 (1.32-4.47), P = 0.004], or trauma [OR (95% CI) 6.24 (3.07-12.71), P < 0.001] diagnosis had higher odds of death or new disability, while patients with a lung transplant [OR (95% CI) 0.21 (0.07-0.58), P = 0.003] diagnosis had lower odds. A model including these three variables had good calibration (Brier score 0.20) and acceptable discriminative power with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.76 (95% CI 0.72-0.80).

CONCLUSION

Less than half of all patients mechanically ventilated for more than 24 h were alive and free of new disability at 6 months after admission to ICU. A model including age, illness severity and admission diagnosis has acceptable discriminative ability to predict death or new disability at 6 months.

National Trends and Variation of Functional Status Deterioration in the Medically Critically Ill

OBJECTIVES

Physical and psychologic deficits after an ICU admission are associated with lower quality of life, higher mortality, and resource utilization. This study aimed to examine the prevalence and secular changes of functional status deterioration during hospitalization among nonsurgical critical illness survivors over the past decade.

DESIGN

We performed a retrospective longitudinal cohort analysis.

SETTING

Analysis performed using the Cerner Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation outcomes database which included manually abstracted data from 236 U.S. hospitals from 2008 to 2016.

PATIENTS

We included nonsurgical adult ICU patients who survived their hospitalization and had a functional status documented at ICU admission and hospital discharge. Physical functional status was categorized as fully independent, partially dependent, or fully dependent.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Functional status deterioration occurred in 38,116 patients (29.3%). During the past decade, functional status deterioration increased in each disease category, as well as overall (prevalence rate ratio, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.13-1.17; p < 0.001). Magnitude of functional status deterioration also increased over time (odds ratio, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.03-1.03; p < 0.001) with hematological, sepsis, neurologic, and pulmonary disease categories having the highest odds of severe functional status deterioration.

CONCLUSIONS

Following nonsurgical critical illness, the prevalence of functional status deterioration and magnitude increased in a nationally representative cohort, despite efforts to reduce ICU dysfunction over the past decade. Identifying the prevalence of functional status deterioration and primary etiologies associated with functional status deterioration will elucidate vital areas for further research and targeted interventions. Reducing ICU debilitation for key disease processes may improve ICU survivor mortality, enhance quality of life, and decrease healthcare utilization.

Physical, Mental, and Cognitive Health Status of ICU Survivors Before ICU Admission: A Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES

Although patient's health status before ICU admission is the most important predictor for long-term outcomes, it is often not taken into account, potentially overestimating the attributable effects of critical illness. Studies that did assess the pre-ICU health status often included specific patient groups or assessed one specific health domain. Our aim was to explore patient's physical, mental, and cognitive functioning, as well as their quality of life before ICU admission.

DESIGN

Baseline data were used from the longitudinal prospective MONITOR-IC cohort study.

SETTING

ICUs of four Dutch hospitals.

PATIENTS

Adult ICU survivors (n = 2,467) admitted between July 2016 and December 2018.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Patients, or their proxy, rated their level of frailty (Clinical Frailty Scale), fatigue (Checklist Individual Strength-8), anxiety and depression (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale), cognitive functioning (Cognitive Failure Questionnaire-14), and quality of life (Short Form-36) before ICU admission. Unplanned patients rated their pre-ICU health status retrospectively after ICU admission. Before ICU admission, 13% of all patients was frail, 65% suffered from fatigue, 28% and 26% from symptoms of anxiety and depression, respectively, and 6% from cognitive problems. Unplanned patients were significantly more frail and depressed. Patients with a poor pre-ICU health status were more often likely to be female, older, lower educated, divorced or widowed, living in a healthcare facility, and suffering from a chronic condition.

CONCLUSIONS

In an era with increasing attention for health problems after ICU admission, the results of this study indicate that a part of the ICU survivors already experience serious impairments in their physical, mental, and cognitive functioning before ICU admission. Substantial differences were seen between patient subgroups. These findings underline the importance of accounting for pre-ICU health status when studying long-term outcomes.

Characteristics and outcomes of patients admitted to adult intensive care units in Hong Kong: a population retrospective cohort study from 2008 to 2018

Background

Globally, mortality rates of patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) have decreased over the last two decades. However, evaluations of the temporal trends in the characteristics and outcomes of ICU patients in Asia are limited. The objective of this study was to describe the characteristics and risk adjusted outcomes of all patients admitted to publicly funded ICUs in Hong Kong over a 11-year period. The secondary objective was to validate the predictive performance of Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) IV for ICU patients in Hong Kong.

Methods

This was an 11-year population-based retrospective study of all patients admitted to adult general (mixed medical-surgical) intensive care units in Hong Kong public hospitals. ICU patients were identified from a population electronic health record database. Prospectively collected APACHE IV data and clinical outcomes were analysed.

Results

From 1 April 2008 to 31 March 2019, there were a total of 133,858 adult ICU admissions in Hong Kong public hospitals. During this time, annual ICU admissions increased from 11,267 to 14,068, whilst hospital mortality decreased from 19.7 to 14.3%. The APACHE IV standard mortality ratio (SMR) decreased from 0.81 to 0.65 during the same period. Linear regression demonstrated that APACHE IV SMR changed by − 0.15 (95% CI − 0.18 to − 0.11) per year (Pearson’s R = − 0.951, p < 0.001). Observed median ICU length of stay was shorter than that predicted by APACHE IV (1.98 vs. 4.77, p < 0.001). C-statistic for APACHE IV to predict hospital mortality was 0.889 (95% CI 0.887 to 0.891) whilst calibration was limited (Hosmer–Lemeshow test p < 0.001).

Conclusions

Despite relatively modest per capita health expenditure, and a small number of ICU beds per population, Hong Kong consistently provides a high-quality and efficient ICU service. Number of adult ICU admissions has increased, whilst adjusted mortality has decreased over the last decade. Although APACHE IV had good discrimination for hospital mortality, it overestimated hospital mortality of critically ill patients in Hong Kong.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40560-020-00513-9.

Body Mass Index and Mortality in Blunt Trauma: The Right BMI can be Protective

BACKGROUND

There are limited studies examining the role of BMI on mortality in the trauma population. The aim of this study was to analyze whether the "obesity paradox" exists in non-elderly patients with blunt trauma.

METHODS

A retrospective study was performed on the Trauma Quality Improvement Program (TQIP) database for 2016. All non-elderly patients aged 18-64, with blunt traumatic injuries were identified. A generalized additive model (GAM) was built to assess the association of mortality and BMI adjusted for age, gender, race, and injury severity score (ISS).

RESULTS

28,475 patients (mean age = 42.5, SD = 14.3) were identified. 20,328 (71.4%) were male. Age (p < 0.0001), gender (p < 0.0001), and ISS (p < 0.0001) had significant associations with mortality. After GAM, BMI showed a significant U-shaped association with mortality (EDF = 3.2, p = 0.003). A BMI range of 31.5 ± 0.9 kg/m² was associated with the lowest mortality.

CONCLUSION

High BMI can be a protective factor in mortality within non-elderly patients with blunt trauma. However, underweight or morbid obesity suggest a higher risk of mortality.

Short- and Long-Term Outcome of Chronic Dialyzed Patients Admitted to the ICU and Assessment of Prognosis Factors: Results of a 6-Year Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES

Data about end-stage kidney disease patients admitted to the ICU are scarce, dated, and mostly limited to short-term survival. The aim of this study was to assess the short- and long-term outcome and to determine the prognostic factors for end-stage kidney disease patients admitted to the ICU.

DESIGN

Prospective observational study.

SETTING

Medical ICUs in two university hospitals.

PATIENTS

Consecutive end-stage kidney disease patients admitted in two ICUs between 2012 and 2017.

INTERVENTION

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Renal replacement therapy variables, demographic, clinical, and biological data were collected. The requirement of mechanical ventilation and vasopressive drugs were also collected. In-ICU and one-year mortality were estimated and all data were analyzed in order to identify predictive factors of short and long-term mortality. A total of 140 patients were included, representing 1.7% of total admissions over the study period. Septic shock was the main reason for admission mostly of pulmonary origin. Median Simplified Acute Physiology Score II and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score were at 63 and 6.7, respectively. In-ICU, hospital, and 1-year mortality were 41.4%, 46.4%, and 63%, respectively. ICU mortality was significantly higher as compared with ICU control group non-end-stage kidney disease (25% vs 41.4%; p = 0.005). By multivariate analysis, the short-term outcome was significantly associated with nonrenal Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score, and with the requirement of mechanical ventilation or/and vasoconstrictive agents during ICU stay. One-year mortality was associated with increased dialysis duration (> 3 yr) and phosphatemia (> 2.5 mmol/L), with lower albuminemia (< 30 g/L) and nonrenal Sequential Organ Failure Assessment greater than 8.

CONCLUSIONS

End-stage kidney disease patients presented frequently severe complications requiring critical care that induced significant short- and long-term mortality. ICU and hospital mortality depended mainly on the severity of the critical event reflected by Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score and the need of mechanical ventilation and/or catecholamines. One-year mortality was associated with both albuminemia and phosphatemia and with prior duration of chronic dialysis treatment, and with organ failure at ICU admission.

The performance of acute versus antecedent patient characteristics for 1-year mortality prediction during intensive care unit admission: a national cohort study

Background

Multiple factors contribute to mortality after ICU, but it is unclear how the predictive value of these factors changes during ICU admission. We aimed to compare the changing performance over time of the acute illness component, antecedent patient characteristics, and ICU length of stay (LOS) in predicting 1-year mortality.

Methods

In this retrospective observational cohort study, the discriminative value of four generalized mixed-effects models was compared for 1-year and hospital mortality. Among patients with increasing ICU LOS, the models included (a) acute illness factors and antecedent patient characteristics combined, (b) acute component only, (c) antecedent patient characteristics only, and (d) ICU LOS. For each analysis, discrimination was measured by area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), calculated using the bootstrap method. Statistical significance between the models was assessed using the DeLong method (p value < 0.05).

Results

In 400,248 ICU patients observed, hospital mortality was 11.8% and 1-year mortality 21.8%. At ICU admission, the combined model predicted 1-year mortality with an AUC of 0.84 (95% CI 0.84–0.84). When analyzed separately, the acute component progressively lost predictive power. From an ICU admission of at least 3 days, antecedent characteristics significantly exceeded the predictive value of the acute component for 1-year mortality, AUC 0.68 (95% CI 0.68–0.69) versus 0.67 (95% CI 0.67–0.68) (p value < 0.001). For hospital mortality, antecedent characteristics outperformed the acute component from a LOS of at least 7 days, comprising 7.8% of patients and accounting for 52.4% of all bed days. ICU LOS predicted 1-year mortality with an AUC of 0.52 (95% CI 0.51–0.53) and hospital mortality with an AUC of 0.54 (95% CI 0.53–0.55) for patients with a LOS of at least 7 days.

Conclusions

Comparing the predictive value of factors influencing 1-year mortality for patients with increasing ICU LOS, antecedent patient characteristics are more predictive than the acute component for patients with an ICU LOS of at least 3 days. For hospital mortality, antecedent patient characteristics outperform the acute component for patients with an ICU LOS of at least 7 days. After the first week of ICU admission, LOS itself is not predictive of hospital nor 1-year mortality.

Functional performance and 30-day postoperative mortality after emergency laparotomy-a retrospective, multicenter, observational cohort study of 1084 patients

BACKGROUND

Despite the importance of predicting adverse postoperative outcomes, functional performance status as a proxy for frailty has not been systematically evaluated in emergency abdominal surgery. Our aim was to evaluate if the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance score was independently associated with mortality following high-risk emergency abdominal surgery, in a multicentre, retrospective, observational study of a consecutive cohort.

METHODS

All patients aged 18 or above undergoing high-risk emergency laparotomy or laparoscopy from four emergency surgical centres in the Capitol Region of Denmark, from January 1 to December 31, 2012, were included. Demographics, preoperative status, ECOG performance score, mortality, and surgical characteristics were registered. The association of frailty with postoperative mortality was evaluated using multiple regression models. Likelihood ratio test was applied for goodness of fit.

RESULTS

In total, 1084 patients were included in the cohort; unadjusted 30-day mortality was 20.2%. ECOG performance score was independently associated with 30-day mortality. Odds ratio for mortality was 1.70 (95% CI (1.0, 2.9)) in patients with ECOG performance score of 1, compared with 5.90 (95% CI (1.8, 19.0)) in patients with ECOG performance score of 4 (p < 0.01). Likelihood ratio test suggests improvement in fit of logistic regression modelling of 30-day postoperative mortality when including ECOG performance score as an explanatory variable.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found ECOG performance score to be independently associated with the postoperative 30-day mortality among patients undergoing high-risk emergency laparotomy. The utility of including functional performance in a preoperative risk assessment model of emergency laparotomy should be evaluated.

Performance of the quick SOFA in very old ICU patients admitted with sepsis

BACKGROUND

The number of very elderly ICU patients (abbreviated to VOPs; ≥80 years) with sepsis increases. Sepsis was redefined in 2016 (sepsis 3.0) using the quick SOFA (qSOFA) score. Since then, multiple studies have validated qSOFA for prognostication in different patient categories, but the prognostic value in VOPs with sepsis is still unknown.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study including patients admitted to Dutch ICUs with sepsis, in the period 2012 to 2016, evaluating the outcome and the performance of qSOFA, an extended qSOFA model, SOFA, SAPS II, and APACHE IV for hospital mortality.

RESULTS

5969 patients were included, of which 935 VOPs. Crude hospital mortality rates were 19%, 28%, and 39% for patients aged 18-65, 65-80, and ≥80 years respectively. Discriminative performance of qSOFA for in-hospital mortality in VOPs was poor (AUC 0.596) and lower than that of SOFA, APACHE IV, and SAPS II (0.704, 0.722, and 0.780 respectively). A qSOFA model extended with several other characteristics (AUC 0.643) was non-inferior to the full SOFA, but still inferior to APACHE IV and SAPS II, for all age groups. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed non-significant p-values for all models. Accuracy for both qSOFA and the extended qSOFA was lower compared to APACHE IV and SAPS II (Brier scores 0.227, 0.223, 0.184, and 0.183 respectively).

CONCLUSION

The qSOFA showed worse discriminative performance to predict mortality than SOFA, APACHE IV, and SAPS II in both VOPs and younger patients admitted with sepsis.

APACHE II score validation in emergency abdominal surgery. A post hoc analysis of the InCare trial

BACKGROUND

Patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery are at high risk of morbidity and mortality. Accurate identification of high-risk patients is important. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score needs to be validated in a larger heterogeneous population before implementation. We aimed to assess the predictive value of the APACHE II score in emergency abdominal surgical patients. Furthermore, we compared the APACHE II score with the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status score and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI).

METHODS

We included adult patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery screened for enrolment in the InCare trial from October 2010 to November 2012. The APACHE II score was evaluated with area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) statistics. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Secondary outcomes included 90-day mortality and admission to the intensive care unit.

RESULTS

We included a total of 885 patients. All-cause 30-day mortality was 5.0%, 90-day mortality was 8.9%, and a total of 7.9% of the patients were admitted to the intensive care unit. The AUROC (95% confidence interval) of the APACHE II score was 0.72 (0.65-0.80) for 30-day mortality, 0.70 (0.64-0.76) for 90-day mortality and 0.65 (0.59-0.71) for admission to the intensive care unit. The CCI performed better in prediction of 90-day mortality (P = .04). All other results for the ASA score and CCI were comparable with the APACHE II score.

CONCLUSION

The APACHE II score predicted mortality moderately and admission to intensive care unit poorly in emergency abdominal surgical patients.

Mobility and clinical outcome of patients admitted to an intensive care unit

Abstract Introduction: The hospital environment exacerbates the effects of immobility due to several exposure factors, and the functional assessment of individuals using reliable instruments is vital. Objective: To determine the relationship between functional mobility and the clinical outcome of patients admitted to an intensive care unit. Method: This is a prospective quantitative longitudinal study, approved by the institutional research ethics committee, carried out in the intensive care unit of a University Hospital. Clinical data and the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) score were collected 24 hours after admission. The Perne Score was used to analyze patient mobility. Results: 33 patients participated, 63% female. With respect to mobility and transfers, 69.7% required total assistance from the supine to the sitting position and 70% to maintain balance, 9.1% needed minimum assistance from sitting to standing, and 100% total assistance for walking and endurance exercises. The main barriers to mobility were invasive ventilation (60%), assistive devices and intravenous infusion (100%). The following Perne Score domains were significantly associated with the outcome: mental status (p = 0.040), barriers to mobility (p = 0.016), strength (p = 0.010), mobility in bed (p = 0.024) and the total Perme Score ( p = 0.002). There were also significant associations between invasive ventilation and low Perme Scores (p = 0.000), and the Richmond Agitation-Sedation Scale (RASS) (-5 and -4) and death in 66.7% of patients (p = 0.011). The Perme Score and RASS (R = 0.745) were moderately correlated and APACHE II and Perme Score inversely moderately correlated (R = -0.526). Conclusion: Mobility assessed by the Perme Score was related to the clinical outcome and strongly associated with sedation level and patient severity.

External validation of the Simplified Mortality Score for the Intensive Care Unit (SMS-ICU)

BACKGROUND

The Simplified Mortality Score for the Intensive Care Unit (SMS-ICU) is a clinical prediction model, which estimates the risk of 90-day mortality in acutely ill adult ICU patients using 7 readily available variables. We aimed to externally validate the SMS-ICU and compare its discrimination with existing prediction models used with 90-day mortality as the outcome.

METHODS

We externally validated the SMS-ICU using data from 3282 patients included in the Stress Ulcer Prophylaxis in the Intensive Care Unit trial, which randomised acutely ill adult ICU patients with risk factors for gastrointestinal bleeding to prophylactic pantoprazole or placebo in 33 ICUs in Europe. We assessed discrimination, calibration and overall performance of the SMS-ICU and compared discrimination with the commonly used and more complex SAPS II and SOFA scores.

RESULTS

Mortality at day 90 was 30.7%. The discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) for the SMS-ICU was 0.67 (95% CI: 0.65-0.69), as compared with 0.68 (95% CI: 0.66-0.70, P = 0.35) for SAPS II and 0.63 (95% CI: 0.61-0.65, P < 0.001) for the SOFA score. Calibration (intercept and slope) was 0.001 and 0.786, respectively, and Nagelkerke's R² (overall performance) was 0.06. The proportions of missing data for the SMS-ICU, SAPS II and SOFA scores were 0.2%, 8.5% and 6.8%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Discrimination for 90-day mortality of the SMS-ICU in this cohort was poor, but similar to SAPS II and better than that of the SOFA score with markedly less missing data.

Supporting the Geriatric Critical Care Patient: Decision Making, Understanding Outcomes, and the Role of Palliative Care

Geriatric admissions to the intensive care unit (ICU) are common and require unique considerations for ICU clinicians. Admission to the ICU should be considered on an individual-patient basis. It is reasonable to consider a "trial of critical care" for many patients, even those who have uncertain chances of meaningful recovery. Quality of life and functional independence are especially important to older adults, and these outcomes should be considered when weighing the risks and benefits of admission or continuing ICU care.

Premorbid functional status as a predictor of 1-year mortality and functional status in intensive care patients aged 80 years or older

PURPOSE

We assessed the association between the premorbid functional status (PFS) and 1-year mortality and functional status of very old intensive care patients.

METHODS

Using a nationwide quality registry, we retrieved data on patients treated in Finnish intensive care units (ICUs) during the period May 2012‒April 2013. Of 16,389 patients, 1827 (11.1%) were very old (aged 80 years or older). We defined a person with good functional status as someone independent in activities of daily living (ADL) and able to climb stairs without assistance; a person with poor functional status was defined as needing assistance for ADL or being unable to climb stairs. We adjusted for severity of illness and calculated the impact of PFS.

RESULTS

Overall, hospital mortality was 21.3% and 1-year mortality was 38.2%. For emergency patients (73.5% of all), hospital mortality was 28% and 1-year mortality was 48%. The functional status at 1 year was comparable to the PFS in 78% of the survivors. PFS was poor for 43.3% of the patients. A poor PFS predicted an increased risk of in-hospital death, adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1.50 (95% confidence interval, 1.07-2.10), and of 1-year mortality, OR 2.18 (1.67-2.85). PFS data significantly improved the prediction of 1-year mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Of very old ICU patients, 62% were alive 1 year after ICU admission and 78% of the survivors had a functional status comparable to the premorbid situation. A poor PFS doubled the odds of death within a year. Knowledge of PFS improved the prediction of 1-year mortality.

Dependent functional status is associated with unplanned postoperative intubation after elective cervical spine surgery: a national registry analysis

PURPOSE

The impact of preoperative functional status on 30-day unplanned postoperative intubation and clinical outcomes among patients who underwent cervical spine surgery is not well-described. We hypothesized that functional dependence is associated with 30-day unplanned postoperative intubation and that among the reintubated cohort, functional dependence is associated with adverse postoperative clinical outcomes after cervical spine surgery.

METHODS

Utilizing the 2007-2016 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database, we identified adult elective anterior and posterior cervical spine surgery patients by Current Procedural Terminology codes. We performed (1) a Cox Proportional Hazard analysis for the following outcomes: reintubation, prolonged ventilator use, and pneumonia and (2) an adjusted logistic regression analysis among patients that required postoperative reintubation to evaluate the association of functional status with adverse postoperative outcomes.

RESULTS

The sample size was 26,263, of which 550 (2.1%) were functionally dependent. The adjusted model suggested that when compared with functionally independent patients, dependent patients were at increased risk of unplanned 30-day intubation (HR 2.05, 95% CI 1.26-3.34; P = 0.003). The adjusted risk of 30-day postoperative pneumonia was significantly higher in patients with functional dependence (HR 1.61, 95% CI 1.02-2.54, P = 0.036). Among patients that required postoperative reintubation, the odds of 30-day mortality was significantly higher in patients with functional dependence (OR 5.82, 95% CI 1.59-23.4, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Preoperative functional dependence is a good marker for estimating postoperative unplanned intubation following cervical spine surgery.

Development and internal validation of the Simplified Mortality Score for the Intensive Care Unit (SMS-ICU)

BACKGROUND

Intensive care unit (ICU) mortality prediction scores deteriorate over time, and their complexity decreases clinical applicability and commonly causes problems with missing data. We aimed to develop and internally validate a new and simple score that predicts 90-day mortality in adults upon acute admission to the ICU: the Simplified Mortality Score for the Intensive Care Unit (SMS-ICU).

METHODS

We used data from an international cohort of 2139 patients acutely admitted to the ICU and 1947 ICU patients with severe sepsis/septic shock from 2009 to 2016. We performed multiple imputations for missing data and used binary logistic regression analysis with variable selection by backward elimination, followed by conversion to a simple point-based score. We assessed the apparent performance and validated the score internally using bootstrapping to present optimism-corrected performance estimates.

RESULTS

The SMS-ICU comprises seven variables available in 99.5% of the patients: two numeric variables: age and lowest systolic blood pressure, and five dichotomous variables: haematologic malignancy/metastatic cancer, acute surgical admission and use of vasopressors/inotropes, respiratory support and renal replacement therapy. Discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.71-0.74), overall performance (Nagelkerke's R² ) was 0.19 and calibration (intercept and slope) was 0.00 and 0.99, respectively. Optimism-corrected performance was similar to apparent performance.

CONCLUSIONS

The SMS-ICU predicted 90-day mortality with reasonable and stable performance. If performance remains adequate after external validation, the SMS-ICU could prove a valuable tool for ICU clinicians and researchers because of its simplicity and expected very low number of missing values.

Common intensive care scoring systems do not outperform age and glasgow coma scale score in predicting mid-term mortality in patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage treated in the intensive care unit

BACKGROUND

Intensive care scoring systems are widely used in intensive care units (ICU) around the world for case-mix adjustment in research and benchmarking. The aim of our study was to investigate the usefulness of common intensive care scoring systems in predicting mid-term mortality in patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) treated in intensive care units (ICU).

METHODS

We performed a retrospective observational study including adult patients with spontaneous ICH treated in Finnish ICUs during 2003-2012. We used six-month mortality as the primary outcome of interest. We used logistic regression to customize Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) for six-month mortality prediction. To assess the usefulness of the scoring systems, we compared their discrimination and calibration with two simpler models consisting of age, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, and premorbid functional status.

RESULTS

Totally 3218 patients were included. Overall six-month mortality was 48%. APACHE II and SAPS II outperformed SOFA (area under the receiver operator curve [AUC] 0.83 and 0.84, respectively, vs. 0.73) but did not show any benefit over the simpler models in terms of discrimination (AUC 0.84, p > 0.05 for all models). SAPS II showed satisfactory calibration (p = 0.058 in the Hosmer-Lemeshow test), whereas all other models showed poor calibration (p < 0.05).

DISCUSSION

In this retrospective multi-center study, we found that SAPS II and APACHE II were of no additional prognostic value to a simple model based on only age and GCS score for patients with ICH treated in the ICU. In fact, the major predictive ability of APACHE II and SAPS II comes from their age and GCS score components. SOFA performed significantly poorer than the other models and is not applicable as a prognostic model for ICH patients. All models displayed poor calibration, highlighting the need for improved prognostic models for ICH patients.

CONCLUSION

The common intensive care scoring systems did not outperform a simpler model based on only age and GCS score. Thus, the use of previous intensive care scoring systems is not warranted in ICH patients.