Mortality rate and predictors of time to death in children with severe acute malnutrition treated in Felege-Hiwot Referral Hospital Bahir Dar, Northwest Ethiopia

Risk factors for inpatient mortality among children with severe acute malnutrition in Zimbabwe and Zambia

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Malnutrition underlies 45% of deaths in children under-5 years annually. Children hospitalised with complicated severe acute malnutrition (SAM) have unacceptably high mortality. We aimed to identify variables from early hospital admission (baseline factors) independently associated with inpatient mortality in this cohort to identify those most at risk.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

Observational study of 745 children aged 0-59 months admitted with complicated SAM at three hospitals in Zimbabwe/Zambia. Children underwent anthropometry and clinical assessment by a study physician within 72 h of enrolment, and caregivers provided sociodemographic data. Children were followed-up daily until discharge/death. A multivariable survival analysis identified the baseline factors independently associated with mortality.

RESULTS

70/745 (9.4%) children died in hospital. Age between 6-23 months [aHR 6.53, 95%CI 2.24-19.02], higher mid-upper arm circumference [aHR 0.73, 95%CI 0.59-0.89], presence of oedema [aHR 2.22, 95%CI 1.23-4.05], shock [aHR 8.18, 95%CI 3.79-17.65], sepsis [aHR 3.13, 95%CI 1.44-6.80], persistent diarrhoea [aHR 2.27, 95%CI 1.18-4.37], lack of a toilet at home [aHR 4.35, 95%CI 1.65-11.47], and recruitment at one Harare site [aHR 0.38, 95%CI 0.18-0.83] were all independently associated with inpatient mortality. Oedematous children had a significantly higher birthweight [2987 g vs 2757 g, p < 0.001] than those without oedema; higher birthweight was weakly associated with mortality [aHR 1.50 95%CI 0.97-2.31].

CONCLUSIONS

Children with oedema, low MUAC, baseline infections, shock and lack of home sanitation had a significantly increased risk of inpatient mortality following hospitalisation for complicated SAM. Children with high-risk features may require additional care. A better understanding of the pathophysiology of SAM is needed to identify adjunctive interventions.

Incidence of tuberculosis and its predictors among under-five children with severe acute malnutrition in North Shoa, Amhara region, Ethiopia: a retrospective follow-up study

Introduction

Although tuberculosis (TB) is one of the significant public health challenges in severely malnourished children throughout the globe, it is a severe issue for countries such as Ethiopia, with significant resource limitations. Few studies have examined the incidence of tuberculosis and its predictors among children under five years of age with severe acute malnutrition in developing countries, and there is a paucity of data. This study aimed to estimate the incidence of tuberculosis and its predictors among under-five children with severe acute malnutrition (SAM) in North Shoa, Amhara region, Ethiopia.

Methods

An institution-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted between January 20, 2017, and June 20, 2019. The sample size was calculated using STATA, which yields a total of 345 charts that were selected with systematic random sampling. Data entry was performed using Epi-data version 4.2 and analyzed with STATA 14. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were computed. Cox proportional hazard models were fitted to detect the determinants of tuberculosis. The hazard ratio with a 95% confidence interval was subsequently calculated. Variables with p-values < 0.05 were considered statistically significant.

Results

The incidence rate of tuberculosis among children under five years of age with SAM was 4.6 per 100 person-day observations (95% CI: 3.29, 8.9). Predictors of TB were a history of contact with known TB cases [AHR: 1.4 (95% CI: 1.00, 2.8], HIV/AIDS [AHR: 3.71 (95% CI: 2.10, 8.71)], baseline pneumonia [AHR: 2.10 (1.76,12)], not supplying zinc at baseline [AHR: 3.1 (1.91, 4.70)], and failed appetite taste at the diagnosis of SAM [AHR: 2.4 (1.35, 3.82)].

Conclusions

In this study, the incidence rate of TB was high. Not supplying zinc at baseline, failed appetite taste at the diagnosis of SAM, history of contact with known TB cases, and baseline pneumonia were significant predictors of TB. Prioritizing regular TB screenings, nutritional support, and zinc supplementation for under-five children with SAM should be implemented to reduce the risk of TB.

Determinants of mortality among under-five children admitted with severe acute malnutrition in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Management of severe acute malnutrition (SAM) has been a program priority in Ethiopia, but it remains the leading cause of mortality in under-five children. Hence, this study aimed to identify the incidence density rate of mortality and determinants among under-five children with severe acute malnutrition in St. Paul's Hospital Millennium Medical College, 2012 to 2019.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted and data were collected using a structured checklist from 673 charts, of which 610 charts were included in the final analysis. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve with Log-rank test was used to estimate the survival time. Bi-variable and multi-variable Cox proportional hazard regression models were fitted to identify determinants of death. Schoenfeld residuals test was used to check a proportional hazard assumption. Goodness of fit of the final model was checked using Nelson Aalen cumulative hazard function against Cox-Snell residual.

RESULTS

In this study, 61 (10%) children died making the incidence density rate of death 5.6 (95% CI: 4.4, 7.2) per 1000 child-days. Shock (Adjusted Hazard Ratio) [AHR] =3.2; 95% CI: 1.6, 6.3)), IV fluid infusion (AHR = 5.2; 95% CI: 2.4, 10.4), supplementing F100 (AHR = 0.12; 95%CI: 0.06, 0.23) and zinc (AHR = 0.45; 95% CI: 0.22, 0.93) were determinants of death.

CONCLUSION

The overall proportion of deaths was within the range put forth by the Sphere standard and the national SAM management protocol. Shock and IV fluid infusion increased the hazard of death, whereas F100 & zinc were found to decrease the likelihood death. Children with SAM presented with shock should be handled carefully and IV fluids should be given with precautions.

Predictors of Death from Complicated Severe Acute Malnutrition in East Ethiopia: Survival Analysis

BACKGROUND

Severe acute malnutrition (SAM) is still the leading cause of global child morbidity and mortality, with a greater burden in sub-Saharan Africa. A facility-based treatment of SAM demands critical care for improved outcomes and survival of children. However, there is a need to understand predictors for time to death among SAM children for effective interventions.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the predictors of death from complicated severe acute malnutrition among admitted children treated in East Ethiopia.

METHODS

A 31-month retrospective cohort study was conducted among a total of 665 under-five children admitted with complicated SAM in Dilchora hospital, eastern Ethiopia. The data was extracted from the patient register and medical charts using the kobo tool. The life table, survival, and hazard curves were plotted. Kaplan-Meier with Log rank tests was used to estimate and compare the mean survival time. The bivariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify predictors of time to death. Crude and adjusted hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals and p-values were reported.

RESULTS

A total of 665 full medical charts were reviewed with a total of 60 (9%; 95% CI: 6.8-11.2%) deaths were observed, where most of the deaths occurred during the first two weeks of admission, while 74 (11%) and 449 (68%) were cured and recovered (stabilized and transferred to outpatient), respectively. Admitted children having good appetite (AHR=0.15; 95% CI: 0.64-0.33), pneumonia (AHR=2.46, 95% CI: 1.436, 4.22), diarrhea (AHR=2.16, 95% CI: 1.16, 4.06), tuberculosis (AHR=2.86, 95% CI: 1.08, 7.63) and having a nasogastric tube inserted (AHR=2.33, 95% CI: 1.15, 4.72) were significant predictors of time to death among SAM children.

CONCLUSION

There is unacceptably high under-five mortality due to SAM, which is predicted by co-morbidities (pneumonia, diarrhea, and tuberculosis), with medical complications and nasogastric tubes.

Survival and predictors of mortality among severe acute malnourished under-five children admitted at Felege-Hiwot comprehensive specialized hospital, northwest, Ethiopia: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Malnutrition is still a global public health problem contributing for under-five morbidity and mortality. The case is similar in Ethiopia in which severe acute malnutrition is the major contributor to mortality being an underlying cause for nearly 45% of under-five deaths. However, there is no recent evidence that shows the time to death and public health importance of oxygen saturation and chest in drawing in the study area. Therefore, estimated time to death and its predictors can provide an input for program planners and decision-makers.

METHODS

A facility -based retrospective cohort study was conducted among 488 severe acute malnourished under-five children admitted from the 1st of January 2016 to the 30th of December 2019. The study participants were selected by using simple random sampling technique. Data were entered in to Epi-Data version 3.1 and exported to STATA version15 statistical software for further analysis. The Kaplan Meier was used to estimate cumulative survival probability and a log-rank test was used to compare the survival time between different categories of explanatory variables. The Cox-proportional hazard regression model was fitted to identify predictors of mortality. P-value< 0.05 was used to declare statistical significance.

RESULTS

Out of the total 488 randomly selected charts of children with severe acute malnutrition, 476 records were included in the final analysis. A total of 54(11.34%) children died with an incidence rate of 9.1death /1000 person- days. Failed appetite test (AHR: 2.4; 95%CI: 1.26, 4.67), altered consciousness level at admission (AHR: 2.4; 95%CI: 1.08, 4.67), oxygen saturation below 90% (AHR: 3.3; 95%CI: 1.40, 7.87), edema (AHR 2.9; 95%CI: 1.45, 5.66) and HIV infection (AHR: 2.8; 95%CI: 1.24, 6.36) were predictors of mortality for children diagnosed with severe acute malnutrition.

CONCLUSION

The overall survival status of severe acute malnourished children was low as compared to national sphere standards and previous reports in the literature. The major predictors of mortality were oxygen saturation below 90%, altered consciousness, HIV infection, edema and failed appetite test. Therefore, early screening of complications, close follow up and regular monitoring of sever acute malnourished children might improve child survival rate.

Predictors of inpatient mortality among children hospitalized for severe acute malnutrition: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Malnutrition underlies 45% of under-5 deaths globally. Severe acute malnutrition (SAM) is the most serious form of undernutrition, characterized by wasting with or without edema. Mortality remains high (10%-40%) among children requiring hospitalization for complicated SAM.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to systematically document the factors independently associated with inpatient mortality in children with SAM.

METHODS

Embase, Ovid MEDINE, the Cochrane Library, and clinicaltrials.gov were searched for articles published between January 2000 and January 2020, using a prespecified protocol. Eligible studies included children aged ≤59 mo hospitalized with SAM and used multivariable analysis to assess the baseline factors independently associated with inpatient mortality. Random-effects meta-analysis, stratified by the stated measure of effect, was used where >20% of studies included the same factor in analyses.

RESULTS

Twenty-eight of 1432 studies fulfilled inclusion criteria: 19 studies included all children with SAM and 9 included specific subgroups of children with SAM. All 19 main studies were from 8 countries across Africa, with a median of 400 children/study. The mean inpatient mortality was 15.7% (95% CI: 10.4%, 21.0%) and HIV prevalence ranged from 2.1% to 51%. Nine factors were included in the meta-analysis, stratified by HR and OR. HIV infection (HR: 4.32; 95% CI: 2.31, 8.08), weight-for-height z score (WHZ) (OR: 0.44; 95% CI: 0.24, 0.80), diarrhea (HR: 2.84; 95% CI: 1.40, 5.75), pneumonia (HR: 1.89; 95% CI: 1.19, 3.02), presence of shock (HR: 3.67; 95% CI: 2.24, 6.03), and lack of appetite (HR: 2.16; 95% CI: 1.48, 3.16) were associated with increased mortality, whereas child age and sex were not. The association between edema and mortality was difficult to ascertain from the available studies.

CONCLUSIONS

HIV infection, diarrhea, pneumonia, shock, lack of appetite, and lower WHZ are independent predictors of inpatient mortality in children with SAM. These factors may help to risk-stratify children being hospitalized with complicated SAM.This systematic review/meta-analysis protocol was registered at www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero as CRD42019152267.