Seasonal variation in SARS-CoV-2 transmission in temperate climates: A Bayesian modelling study in 143 European regions

Inference under superspreading: Determinants of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Germany

Superspreading, under-reporting, reporting delay, and confounding complicate statistical inference on determinants of disease transmission. A model that accounts for these factors within a Bayesian framework is estimated using German Covid-19 surveillance data. Compartments based on date of symptom onset, location, and age group allow to identify age-specific changes in transmission, adjusting for weather, reported prevalence, and testing and tracing. Several factors were associated with a reduction in transmission: public awareness rising, information on local prevalence, testing and tracing, high temperature, stay-at-home orders, and restaurant closures. However, substantial uncertainty remains for other interventions including school closures and mandatory face coverings. The challenge of disentangling the effects of different determinants is discussed and examined through a simulation study. On a broader perspective, the study illustrates the potential of surveillance data with demographic information and date of symptom onset to improve inference in the presence of under-reporting and reporting delay.

Viral respiratory infections and air pollution: A review focused on research in Poland

The COVID-19 pandemic has reinforced an interest in the relationship between air pollution and respiratory viral infections, indicating that their burden can be increased under poor air quality. This paper reviews the pathways through which air pollutants can enhance susceptibility to such infections and aggravate their clinical course and outcome. It also summarizes the research exploring the links between various viral infections and exposure to solid and gaseous pollution in Poland, a region characterized by poor air quality, especially during a heating season. The majority of studies focused on concentrations of particulate matter (PM; 86.7%); the other pollutants, i.e., BaP, benzene, CO, NOx, O3, and SO2, were studied less often and sometimes only in the context of a particular infection type. Most research concerned COVID-19, showing that elevated levels of PM and NO2 correlated with higher morbidity and mortality, while increased PM2.5 and benzo[a]pyrene levels were related to worse clinical course and outcome in hospitalized, regardless of age and dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant. PM10 and PM2.5 levels were also associated with the incidence of influenza-like illness and, along with NO2 concentrations, with a higher rate of children's hospitalizations due to lower respiratory tract RSV infections. Higher levels of air pollutants also increased hospitalization due to bronchitis (PM, NOx, and O3) and emergency department admission due to viral croup (PM10, PM2.5, NOx, CO, and benzene). Although the conducted studies imply only correlations and have other limitations, as discussed in the present paper, it appears that improving air quality through reducing combustion processes in energy production in Poland should be perceived as a part of multilayered protection measures against respiratory viral infections, decreasing the healthcare costs of COVID-19, lower tract RSV infections, influenza, and other respiratory viral diseases prevalent between autumn and early spring, in addition to other health and climate benefits.

SARS-CoV-2 Test-to-Stay in Daycare

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Test-to-stay concepts apply serial testing of children in daycare after exposure to SARS-CoV-2 without use of quarantine. This study aims to assess the safety of a test-to-stay screening in daycare facilities.

METHODS

714 daycare facilities and approximately 50 000 children ≤6 years in Cologne, Germany participated in a SARS-CoV-2 Pool-polymerase chain reaction (PCR) screening from March 2021 to April 2022. The screening initially comprised post-exposure quarantine and was adapted to a test-to-stay approach during its course. To assess safety of the test-to-stay approach, we explored potential changes in frequencies of infections among children after the adaptation to the test-to-stay approach by applying regression discontinuity in time (RDiT) analyses. To this end, PCR-test data were linked with routinely collected data on reported infections in children and analyzed using ordinary least squares regressions.

RESULTS

219 885 Pool-PCRs and 352 305 Single-PCRs were performed. 6440 (2.93%) Pool-PCRs tested positive, and 17 208 infections in children were reported. We estimated that during a period of 30 weeks, the test-to-stay concept avoided between 7 and 20 days of quarantine per eligible daycare child. RDiT revealed a 26% reduction (Exp. Coef: 0.74, confidence interval 0.52-1.06) in infection frequency among children and indicated no significant increase attributable to the test-to-stay approach. This result was not sensitive to adjustments for 7-day incidence, season, SARS-CoV-2 variant, and socioeconomic status.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analyses provide evidence that suggest safety of the test-to-stay approach compared with quarantine measures. This approach offers a promising option to avoid use of quarantine after exposure to respiratory pathogens in daycare settings.

Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: Lessons from the US COVID-19 scenario modeling hub

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Here, we present projections of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in the United States for the next 2 years under 2 plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and 3 possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65 years and over, vaccination for all eligible age groups based on FDA approval).

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023 and April 15, 2025 under 6 scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. Annually reformulated vaccines are assumed to be 65% effective against symptomatic infection with strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age- and state-specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. State and national projections from 8 modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario and expected reductions in disease outcomes due to vaccination over the projection period. From April 15, 2023 to April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November to January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% projection interval (PI) [1,438,000, 4,270,000]) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI [139,000, 461,000]) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% confidence interval (CI) [104,000, 355,000]) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI [12,000, 54,000]) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI [29,000, 69,000]) fewer deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming 2 years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease, saving tens of thousands of lives each year.

On the SARS-CoV-2 Variants

The evolutionary dynamics of viruses, particularly exemplified by SARS-CoV-2 during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, underscore the intricate interplay between genetics, host adaptation, and viral spread. This paper delves into the genetic evolution of SARS-CoV-2, emphasizing the implications of viral variants on global health. Initially emerging from the Wuhan-Hu-1 lineage, SARS-CoV-2 rapidly diversified into numerous variants, each characterized by distinct mutations in the spike protein and other genomic regions. Notable variants such as B.1.1.7 (α), B.1.351 (β), P.1 (γ), B.1.617.2 (δ), and the Omicron variant have garnered significant attention due to their heightened transmissibility and immune evasion capabilities. In particular, the Omicron variant has presented a myriad of subvariants, raising concerns about its potential impact on public health. Despite the emergence of numerous variants, the vast majority have exhibited limited expansion capabilities and have not posed significant threats akin to early pandemic strains. Continued genomic surveillance is imperative to identify emerging variants of concern promptly. While genetic adaptation is intrinsic to viral evolution, effective public health responses must be grounded in empirical evidence to navigate the evolving landscape of the pandemic with resilience and precision.

Evaluation of Strategies for Transitioning to Annual SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination Campaigns in the United States

BACKGROUND

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has proposed administering annual SARS-CoV-2 vaccines.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the effectiveness of an annual SARS-CoV-2 vaccination campaign, quantify the health and economic benefits of a second dose provided to children younger than 2 years and adults aged 50 years or older, and optimize the timing of a second dose.

DESIGN

An age-structured dynamic transmission model.

SETTING

United States.

PARTICIPANTS

A synthetic population reflecting demographics and contact patterns in the United States.

INTERVENTION

Vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 with age-specific uptake similar to that of influenza vaccination.

MEASUREMENTS

Incidence, hospitalizations, deaths, and direct health care cost.

RESULTS

The optimal timing between the first and second dose delivered to children younger than 2 years and adults aged 50 years or older in an annual vaccination campaign was estimated to be 5 months. In direct comparison with a single-dose campaign, a second booster dose results in 123 869 fewer hospitalizations (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 121 994 to 125 742 fewer hospitalizations) and 5524 fewer deaths (95% UI, 5434 to 5613 fewer deaths), averting $3.63 billion (95% UI, $3.57 billion to $3.69 billion) in costs over a single year.

LIMITATIONS

Population immunity is subject to degrees of immune evasion for emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants. The model was implemented in the absence of nonpharmaceutical interventions and preexisting vaccine-acquired immunity.

CONCLUSION

The direct health care costs of SARS-CoV-2, particularly among adults aged 50 years or older, would be substantially reduced by administering a second dose 5 months after the initial dose.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Notsew Orm Sands Foundation, National Institutes of Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and National Science Foundation.

SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic: A Comparison Between the Epidemiological Situation in Greece and Romania

Introduction Since the onset of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, there seems to be scarce data targeting the comparison of epidemiological data among different countries. In an attempt to reveal and characterize the epidemiological profile in the Balkan peninsula, a cross-sectional study has been conducted, aiming to retrospectively collect all the existing information regarding the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic over a period of three years, starting from March 2020 until March 2023. The comparative analysis of the epidemiological features and the main indicators between Romania and Greece can generate a good overview of the factors that can influence public health and create an adequate system of measures to limit the COVID-19 pandemic in the area. A retrospective comparative study aiming to detect and associate the main indicators determining the evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic data with the control measures adopted in Romania and Greece was performed. Methods Publicly available data were obtained from official sources such as the World Health Organization, the European Centre for Disease Control, the Romanian and Greek Ministries of Health, and the Romanian National Centre for Surveillance and Control of Communicable Diseases. The reported number of cases, in total and in conjunction with the age distribution, total number of deaths, and vaccination coverage, from the onset of the pandemic in March 2020 until March 2023, were collected. All officially reported cases of COVID-19 were included in this analysis. Reports with missing or incomplete values regarding the timeframe, age distribution, and vaccination status were excluded. Results During the timeframe of the study, from March 2020 until March 2023, Greece reported a higher number of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases as compared to Romania (5,910,103 cases and 3,352,356 cases, respectively). Still, in terms of the overall death toll, Romania recorded a higher mortality rate than Greece during the pandemic (67.773 deaths vs. 36.372 deaths). Concerning both cumulative incidence rates and the 14-day case notification rate per 100.000 inhabitants, it is evident that Romania exhibited greater numbers throughout the course of the pandemic. Although it is not clearly stated, the compulsory vaccination of elderly people that was set as a high priority in Greece may have contributed to the above results. In terms of the 14-day death notification rate per 100.000 inhabitants in 2020 and 2021, Romania showed a higher rate than Greece, while Greece reported a greater rate in 2022 and up until March 2023. Between 2020 and 2023, Greece presented both a higher number of vaccinated individuals and a higher vaccination coverage with two doses (7,034,695 individuals, 70% of the general population), as compared to Romania (6,467,804 individuals, 33.68% of the general population, p<0.0001). Conclusions Despite the similar restrictions and preventive actions adopted by Romania and Greece, some of the epidemiological data between the two countries tends to differ. It must not be ignored that every nation should be considered a unique entity with distinct features, including individuals, customs, and policies, rather than being categorized with other countries based on geographic proximity or regionalization.

Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: lessons from the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub

Importance

COVID-19 continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear.

Objective

To project COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths from April 2023-April 2025 under two plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and three possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no vaccine recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65+, vaccination for all eligible groups).

Design

The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023-April 15, 2025 under six scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. State and national projections from eight modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario.

Setting

The entire United States.

Participants

None.

Exposure

Annually reformulated vaccines assumed to be 65% effective against strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age and state specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster.

Main outcomes and measures

Ensemble estimates of weekly and cumulative COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths. Expected relative and absolute reductions in hospitalizations and deaths due to vaccination over the projection period.

Results

From April 15, 2023-April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November-January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% PI: 1,438,000-4,270,000) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI: 139,000-461,000) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% CI: 104,000-355,000) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI: 12,000-54,000) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI: 29,000-69,000) fewer deaths.

Conclusion and Relevance

COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming two years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease.

Key Considerations during the Transition from the Acute Phase of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Narrative Review

The COVID-19 pandemic has been met with an unprecedented response from the scientific community, leading to the development, investigation, and authorization of vaccines and antivirals, ultimately reducing the impact of SARS-CoV-2 on global public health. However, SARS-CoV-2 is far from being eradicated, continues to evolve, and causes substantial health and economic burdens. In this narrative review, we posit essential points on SARS-CoV-2 and its responsible management during the transition from the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. As discussed, despite Omicron (sub)variant(s) causing clinically milder infections, SARS-CoV-2 is far from being a negligible pathogen. It requires continued genomic surveillance, particularly if one considers that its future (sub)lineages do not necessarily have to be milder. Antivirals and vaccines remain the essential elements in COVID-19 management. However, the former could benefit from further development and improvements in dosing, while the seasonal administration of the latter requires simplification to increase interest and tackle vaccine hesitancy. It is also essential to ensure the accessibility of COVID-19 pharmaceuticals and vaccines in low-income countries and improve the understanding of their use in the context of the long-term goals of SARS-CoV-2 management. Regardless of location, the primary role of COVID-19 awareness and education must be played by healthcare workers, who directly communicate with patients and serve as role models for healthy behaviors.

Unraveling the Dynamics of Omicron (BA.1, BA.2, and BA.5) Waves and Emergence of the Deltacton Variant: Genomic Epidemiology of the SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic in Cyprus (Oct 2021-Oct 2022)

Commencing in December 2019 with the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), three years of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic have transpired. The virus has consistently demonstrated a tendency for evolutionary adaptation, resulting in mutations that impact both immune evasion and transmissibility. This ongoing process has led to successive waves of infections. This study offers a comprehensive assessment spanning genetic, phylogenetic, phylodynamic, and phylogeographic dimensions, focused on the trajectory of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Cyprus. Based on a dataset comprising 4700 viral genomic sequences obtained from affected individuals between October 2021 and October 2022, our analysis is presented. Over this timeframe, a total of 167 distinct lineages and sublineages emerged, including variants such as Delta and Omicron (1, 2, and 5). Notably, during the fifth wave of infections, Omicron subvariants 1 and 2 gained prominence, followed by the ascendancy of Omicron 5 in the subsequent sixth wave. Additionally, during the fifth wave (December 2021-January 2022), a unique set of Delta sequences with genetic mutations associated with Omicron variant 1, dubbed "Deltacron", was identified. The emergence of this phenomenon initially evoked skepticism, characterized by concerns primarily centered around contamination or coinfection as plausible etiological contributors. These hypotheses were predominantly disseminated through unsubstantiated assertions within the realms of social and mass media, lacking concurrent scientific evidence to validate their claims. Nevertheless, the exhaustive molecular analyses presented in this study have demonstrated that such occurrences would likely lead to a frameshift mutation-a genetic aberration conspicuously absent in our provided sequences. This substantiates the accuracy of our initial assertion while refuting contamination or coinfection as potential etiologies. Comparable observations on a global scale dispelled doubt, eventually leading to the recognition of Delta-Omicron variants by the scientific community and their subsequent monitoring by the World Health Organization (WHO). As our investigation delved deeper into the intricate dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Cyprus, a discernible pattern emerged, highlighting the major role of international connections in shaping the virus's local trajectory. Notably, the United States and the United Kingdom were the central conduits governing the entry and exit of the virus to and from Cyprus. Moreover, notable migratory routes included nations such as Greece, South Korea, France, Germany, Brazil, Spain, Australia, Denmark, Sweden, and Italy. These empirical findings underscore that the spread of SARS-CoV-2 within Cyprus was markedly influenced by the influx of new, highly transmissible variants, triggering successive waves of infection. This investigation elucidates the emergence of new waves of infection subsequent to the advent of highly contagious and transmissible viral variants, notably characterized by an abundance of mutations localized within the spike protein. Notably, this discovery decisively contradicts the hitherto hypothesis of seasonal fluctuations in the virus's epidemiological dynamics. This study emphasizes the importance of meticulously examining molecular genetics alongside virus migration patterns within a specific region. Past experiences also emphasize the substantial evolutionary potential of viruses such as SARS-CoV-2, underscoring the need for sustained vigilance. However, as the pandemic's dynamics continue to evolve, a balanced approach between caution and resilience becomes paramount. This ethos encourages an approach founded on informed prudence and self-preservation, guided by public health authorities, rather than enduring apprehension. Such an approach empowers societies to adapt and progress, fostering a poised confidence rooted in well-founded adaptation.

Macroeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic

We estimate the economic impacts of COVID-19 in the U.S. using a disaster economic consequence analysis framework implemented by a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. This facilitates identification of relative influences of several causal factors as "shocks" to the model, including mandatory business closures, disease spread trajectories, behavioral responses, resilience, pent-up demand, and government stimulus packages. The analysis is grounded in primary data on avoidance behavior and healthcare parameters. The decomposition of the influence of various causal factors will help policymakers offset the negative influences and reinforce the positive ones during the remainder of this pandemic and future ones.

SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics in the tourism season 2020 in North Frisia, Germany

Background

International tourist activities including air travel, holiday on cruise ships, and Après-ski parties played a prominent role in the early spread of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, the effects of national tourism on infection dynamics are unclear.

Methods

Data were analyzed from the health authorities in North Frisia, the northernmost district in Germany with prominent tourist hotspots such as Sylt, Amrum, and Föhr. Data were available for the time period April 2020-November 2020.

Results

During the tourist season (May-October 2020), PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 case numbers were low with 0 to 10 cases per day. Case numbers rose in September and peaked end of October (2nd wave). Among the confirmed cases, 13 persons were returning travelers and none were national tourists. Overall, only a small proportion of cases were related to individuals with presumed tourist contact.

Conclusion

In summer 2020, the arrival of a large number of tourists apparently did not increase local case numbers, and tourism-related outbreaks were not reported. Thus, tourism presumably did not contribute substantially to SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics in North Frisia. However, incidences were low countrywide and protective measures were in place.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in 1186 Equids Presented to a Veterinary Medical Teaching Hospital in California from 2020 to 2022

While some companion animals have been shown to be susceptible to SARS-CoV-2, their role in the COVID-19 pandemic has remained poorly investigated. Equids are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 based on the similarity of the human ACE-2 receptor and reports of infection. Clinical disease and prevalence factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection in equids have not yet been investigated. The aim of this study was to determine the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and selected prevalence factors in 1186 equids presented for various conditions to a Veterinary Medical Teaching Hospital over a two-year period. Blood samples were tested for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies using an ELISA targeting the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. Further, selected prevalence factors (season, age, breed, sex, presenting complaint) were retrieved from the medical records. No information was available on whether the horses had come into contact with COVID-19-positive individuals. Among the study animals, 42/1186 (3.5%) horses had detectable SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Amongst the prevalence factors investigated, only seasonality (spring) was associated with a greater frequency of seropositivity to SARS-CoV-2. Horses with medical and surgical complaints were more likely to test seropositive to SARS-CoV-2 compared to horses presented for routine health care procedures, suggesting more frequent and/or longer interactions with individuals with COVID-19. While horses can become infected with SARS-CoV-2 via the occasional spillover from COVID-19 individuals, clinical disease expression remains subclinical, making horses an unlikely contributor to the spread of SARS-CoV-2.

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and spike protein mutational dynamics in a Swedish cohort during 2021, studied by Nanopore sequencing

BACKGROUND

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, new variants of significance to public health have emerged. Consequently, early detection of new mutations and variants through whole-genome sequencing remains crucial to assist health officials in employing appropriate public health measures.

METHODS

We utilized the ARTIC Network SARS-CoV-2 tiled amplicon approach and Nanopore sequencing to sequence 4,674 COVID-19 positive patient samples from Uppsala County, Sweden, between week 15 and 52 in 2021. Using this data, we mapped the circulating variants of concern (VOC) in the county over time and analysed the Spike (S) protein mutational dynamics in the Delta variant throughout 2021.

RESULTS

The distribution of the SARS-CoV-2 VOC matched the national VOC distribution in Sweden, in 2021. In the S protein of the Delta variant, we detected mutations attributable to variants under monitoring and variants of interest (e.g., E484Q, Q613H, Q677H, A222V and Y145H) and future VOC (e.g., T95I and Y144 deletion, which are signature mutations in the Omicron variant). We also frequently detected some less well-described S protein mutations in our Delta sequences, that might play a role in shaping future emerging variants. These include A262S, Q675K, I850L, Q1201H, V1228L and M1237I. Lastly, we observed that some of the Delta variant's signature mutations were underrepresented in our study due to artifacts of the used bioinformatics tools, approach and sequencing method. We therefore discuss some pitfalls and considerations when sequencing SARS-CoV-2 genomes.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that genomic surveillance in a small, representative cohort can be used to make predictions about the circulating variants nationally. Moreover, we show that detection of transient mutations in currently circulating variants can give valuable clues to signature mutations of future VOC. Here we suggest six such mutations, that we detected frequently in the Delta variant during 2021. Lastly, we report multiple systematic errors that occurred when following the ARTIC Network SARS-CoV-2 tiled amplicon approach using the V3 primers and Nanopore sequencing, which led to the masking of some of the important signature mutations in the Delta sequences.