Attrition when providing antiretroviral treatment at CD4 counts >500cells/μL at three government clinics included in the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial in South Africa

Prevalence and trends of advanced HIV disease among antiretroviral therapy-naïve and antiretroviral therapy-experienced patients in South Africa between 2010-2021: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Despite the significant progress made in South Africa in getting millions of individuals living with HIV into care, many patients still present or re-enter care with Advanced HIV Disease (AHD). We aimed to estimate the prevalence of AHD among ART-naive and ART-experienced patients in South Africa using studies published between January 2010 and May 2022.

METHODS

We searched for relevant data on PubMed, CINAHL, Scopus and other sources, with a geographical filters limited to South Africa, up to May 31, 2022. Two reviewers conducted all screening, eligibility assessment, data extraction, and critical appraisal. We synthesized the data using the inverse-variance heterogeneity model and Freeman-Tukey transformation. We assessed heterogeneity using the I2 statistic and publication bias using the Egger and Begg's test.

RESULTS

We identified 2,496 records, of which 53 met the eligibility criteria, involving 11,545,460 individuals. The pooled prevalence of AHD among ART-naive and ART-experienced patients was 43.45% (95% CI 40.1-46.8%, n = 53 studies) and 58.6% (95% CI 55.7 to 61.5%, n = 2) respectively. The time trend analysis showed a decline of 2% in the prevalence of AHD among ART-naive patients per year. However, given the high heterogeneity between studies, the pooled prevalence should be interpreted with caution.

CONCLUSION

Despite HIV's evolution to a chronic disease, our findings show that the burden of AHD remains high among both ART-naive and ART-experienced patients in South Africa. This emphasizes the importance of regular measurement of CD4 cell count as an essential component of HIV care. In addition, providing innovative adherence support and interventions to retain ART patients in effective care is a crucial priority for those on ART.

Estimating potential silent transfer using baseline viral load measures among people presenting as new to HIV care in Lusaka, Zambia: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

To estimate potential silent transfer using baseline viral load measures among individuals presenting as new to HIV care in routine HIV clinical settings in Lusaka, Zambia.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

SETTING

Two large, urban government-operated health facilities supported by the Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 248 participants with an incident positive HIV rapid test.

OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome measure was HIV viral suppression at baseline (i.e., potential silent transfer), defined as having a viral load ≤1000 RNA copies(c)/mL at the time of initiating HIV care. We also examined viral suppression at ≤60 c/mL.

METHODS

We surveyed and measured baseline HIV viral load as part of the national recent infection testing algorithm among people living with HIV (PLWH) presenting as new to care. Using mixed effects Poisson regression, we identified characteristics among PLWH associated with potential silent transfer.

RESULTS

Among the 248 PLWH included, 63% were women with median age of 30, and 66 (27% (66/248)) had viral suppression at ≤1000 c/mL and 53 (21% (53/248)) at ≤60 c/mL thresholds, respectively. Participants aged 40+ years had a significantly higher adjusted prevalence of potential silent transfer (adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR): 2.10; 95% CI: 2.08, 2.13) compared with participants aged 18-24 years. Participants reporting no formal education had a significantly higher adjusted prevalence of potential silent transfer (aPR: 1.63; 95% CI: 1.52, 1.75) compared with those completing primary education. Among 57 potential silent transfers who completed a survey, 44 (77%) indicated having tested positive previously at ≥1 of 38 clinics in Zambia.

CONCLUSIONS

The high proportion of PLWH with potential silent transfer points to clinic shopping and/or co-enrolment at multiple care sites simultaneously, suggesting an opportunity to improve care continuity at the time of HIV care entry.

Tuberculosis-Associated Immune Reconstitution Inflammatory Syndrome-An Extempore Game of Misfiring with Defense Arsenals

The lethal combination involving TB and HIV, known as "syndemic" diseases, synergistically act upon one another to magnify the disease burden. Individuals on anti-retroviral therapy (ART) are at risk of developing TB-associated immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (TB-IRIS). The underlying inflammatory complication includes the rapid restoration of immune responses following ART, eventually leading to exaggerated inflammatory responses to MTB antigens. TB-IRIS continues to be a cause of morbidity and mortality among HIV/TB coinfected patients initiating ART, and although a significant quantum of knowledge has been acquired on the pathogenesis of IRIS, the underlying pathomechanisms and identification of a sensitive and specific diagnostic marker still remain a grey area of investigation. Here, we reviewed the latest research developments into IRIS immunopathogenesis, and outlined the modalities to prevent and manage strategies for better clinical and diagnostic outcomes for IRIS.

Antiretroviral therapy initiation and retention among clients who received peer-delivered linkage case management and standard linkage services, Eswatini, 2016-2020: retrospective comparative cohort study

BACKGROUND

Persons living with HIV infection (PLHIV) who are diagnosed in community settings in sub-Saharan Africa are particularly vulnerable to barriers to care that prevent or delay many from obtaining antiretroviral therapy (ART).

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study to assess if a package of peer-delivered linkage case management and treatment navigation services (CommLink) was more effective than peer-delivered counseling, referral, and telephone follow-up (standard linkage services, SLS) in initiating and retaining PLHIV on ART after diagnosis in community settings in Eswatini. HIV-test records of 773 CommLink and 769 SLS clients aged ≥ 15 years diagnosed between March 2016 and March 2018, matched by urban and rural settings of diagnosis, were selected for the study. CommLink counselors recorded resolved and unresolved barriers to care (e.g., perceived wellbeing, fear of partner response, stigmatization) during a median of 52 days (interquartile range: 35-69) of case management.

RESULTS

Twice as many CommLink than SLS clients initiated ART by 90 days of diagnosis overall (88.4% vs. 37.9%, adjusted relative risk (aRR): 2.33, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.97, 2.77) and during test and treat when all PLHIV were eligible for ART (96.2% vs. 37.1%, aRR: 2.59, 95% CI: 2.20, 3.04). By 18 months of diagnosis, 54% more CommLink than SLS clients were initiated and retained on ART (76.3% vs. 49.5%, aRR: 1.54, 95% CI: 1.33, 1.79). Peer counselors helped resolve 896 (65%) of 1372 identified barriers of CommLink clients. Compared with clients with ≥ 3 unresolved barriers to care, 42% (aRR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.19, 1.68) more clients with 1-2 unresolved barriers, 44% (aRR: 1.44, 95% CI: 1.25, 1.66) more clients with all barriers resolved, and 54% (aRR: 1.54, 95% CI: 1.30, 1.81) more clients who had no identified barriers were initiated and retained on ART by 18 months of diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

To improve early ART initiation and retention among PLHIV diagnosed in community settings, HIV prevention programs should consider providing a package of peer-delivered linkage case management and treatment navigation services. Clients with multiple unresolved barriers to care measured as part of that package should be triaged for differentiated linkage and retention services.

Self-Management Model fails to Predict Quality of Life for People Living with Dual Diagnosis of HIV and Diabetes

The objective of this study was to test a self-management model for self-management in people living with HIV and type 2 diabetes (PLWH + T2DM). We conducted a predictive, longitudinal study of data from a national research cohort of PLWH using lag analysis to test short- and long-term health outcomes for PLWH + T2DM. We used a dataset from the Center for AIDS Research (CFAR) Network of Integrated Clinic Systems (CNICS), a nation-wide research network of 8 clinics that serves PLWH. Patient-reported outcomes, collected at clinic visit, included depression, adherence, CD4 cell count, and health-related quality of life (HRQoL). We computed summary statistics to describe the sample. Using lag analysis, we then modeled the three variables of adherence, CD4 count, and HRQoL as a function of their predecessors in our conceptual model. In the final model, an increase of in medication adherence corresponded to a small increase in HRQoL. An increase in CD4 count corresponded to a small increase in HRQoL. An increase in lagged depression was associated with a small decrease in HRQoL. The model was not sufficient to predict short- or long-term outcomes in PLWH + T2DM. Although depression had a moderate impact, the final model was not clinically significant. For people with a dual diagnosis of HIV and T2DM, variables other than those traditionally addressed in self-management interventions may be more important.

CD4+ T-Cell Count at Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation in the "Treat-All" Era in Rural South Africa: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis

BACKGROUND

South Africa implemented universal test and treat (UTT) in September 2016 in an effort to encourage earlier initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART).

METHODS

We therefore conducted an interrupted time series (ITS) analysis to assess the impact of UTT on mean CD4 count at ART initiation among adults aged ≥16 years attending 17 public sector primary care clinics in rural South Africa, between July 2014 and March 2019.

RESULTS

Among 20 599 individuals (69% women), CD4 counts were available for 74%. Mean CD4 at ART initiation increased from 317.1 cells/μL (95% confidence interval [CI], 308.6 to 325.6) 1 to 8 months prior to UTT to 421.0 cells/μL (95% CI, 413.0 to 429.0) 1 to 12 months after UTT, including an immediate increase of 124.2 cells/μL (95% CI, 102.2 to 146.1). However, mean CD4 count subsequently fell to 389.5 cells/μL (95% CI, 381.8 to 397.1) 13 to 30 months after UTT but remained above pre-UTT levels. Men initiated ART at lower CD4 counts than women (-118.2 cells/μL, 95% CI, -125.5 to -111.0) throughout the study.

CONCLUSIONS

Although UTT led to an immediate increase in CD4 count at ART initiation in this rural community, the long-term effects were modest. More efforts are needed to increase initiation of ART early in those living with human immunodeficiency virus, particularly men.

Attrition and Its Predictors Among Adults Receiving First-Line Antiretroviral Therapy in Woldia Town Public Health Facilities, Northeast Ethiopia: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Introduction

There is an expansion and advancement of antiretroviral therapy. However, attrition of patients from HIV care is one of the major drivers of poor performance of HIV/AIDS programs, which leads to drug resistance, morbidity and mortality. The study aimed to assess the incidence of attrition and its predictors among adults receiving first-line antiretroviral therapy.

Methods

An institution-based retrospective cohort study was conducted among 634 adults receiving antiretroviral therapy, and study participants were selected using a simple random sampling technique. Data were cleaned and entered into Epi Data version 3.1 and exported to STATA 14.1 for further analysis. The predictors of attrition were identified using bivariable and multivariable Cox Proportional hazard models; then, variables at a p-value of less than 0.25 and 0.05 were included in the multivariable analysis and statistically significant, respectively.

Results

The total time observed was found to be 1807.08 person-years of observation with a median follow-up time of 2.67 years (IQR 1.25−4.67). The incidence rate of attrition was 8.36 (95% CI: 7.12−9.80) per 100 person-years. Significant predictors of attrition were being young age [adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) =2.0, 95% CI, (1.11−3.58)], nearest calendar year of ART initiation [AHR =2.32, 95% CI, (1.08–5.01)], bedridden functional status [AHR=3.25, 95% CI, (1.33−7.96)], WHO stage III [AHR=3.57, 95% CI, (1.58−8.06)] and stage IV [AHR=5.46, 95% CI, (1.97−15.13)], viral load result of ≤1000 [AHR=0.11, 95% CI, (0.06−0.23)], disclosure status [AHR=2.03, 95% CI, (1.22−3.37)] and adherence level of poor [AHR=3.19, 95 CI, (1.67−6.09)].

Conclusion

The result of this study showed that the incidence of attrition among adults receiving antiretroviral therapy was high. However, as a standard, every client who started antiretroviral therapy should be retained. Positive predictors of attrition were young age (15–24), recent year of ART initiation, baseline functional status, advanced WHO stage III and IV, no disclosure status, fair/poor adherence whereas, viral load result of ≤1000 copies/mL had a preventive effect on attrition.

Incidence and predictors of attrition among patients receiving ART in eastern Zimbabwe before, and after the introduction of universal 'treat-all' policies: A competing risk analysis

As HIV treatment is expanded, attention is focused on minimizing attrition from care. We evaluated the impact of treat-all policies on the incidence and determinants of attrition amongst clients receiving ART in eastern Zimbabwe. Data were retrospectively collected from the medical records of adult patients (aged≥18 years) enrolled into care from July 2015 to June 2016-pre-treat-all era, and July 2016 to June 2017-treat-all era, selected from 12 purposively sampled health facilities. Attrition was defined as an absence from care >90 days following ART initiation. Survival-time methods were used to derive incidence rates (IRs), and competing risk regression used in bivariate and multivariable modelling. In total, 829 patients had newly initiated ART and were included in the analysis (pre-treat-all 30.6%; treat-all 69.4%). Incidence of attrition (per 1000 person-days) increased between the two time periods (pre-treat-all IR = 1.18 (95%CI: 0.90-1.56) versus treat-all period IR = 1.62 (95%CI: 1.37-1.91)). In crude analysis, patients at increased risk of attrition were those enrolled into care during the treat-all period, <34 years of age, WHO stage I at enrolment, and had initiated ART on the same day as HIV diagnosis. After accounting for mediating clinical characteristics, the difference in attrition between the pre-treat-all, and treat-all periods ceased to be statistically significant. In a full multivariable model, attrition was significantly higher amongst same-day ART initiates (aSHR = 1.47, 95%CI:1.05-2.06). Implementation of treat-all policies was associated with an increased incidence of ART attrition, driven largely by ART initiation on the same day as HIV diagnosis which increased significantly in the treat all period. Differentiated adherence counselling for patients at increased risk of attrition, and improved access to clinical monitoring may improve retention in care.

The potential impact of urine-LAM diagnostics on tuberculosis incidence and mortality: A modelling analysis

BACKGROUND

Lateral flow urine lipoarabinomannan (LAM) tests could offer important new opportunities for the early detection of tuberculosis (TB). The currently licensed LAM test, Alere Determine TB LAM Ag ('LF-LAM'), performs best in the sickest people living with HIV (PLHIV). However, the technology continues to improve, with newer LAM tests, such as Fujifilm SILVAMP TB LAM ('SILVAMP-LAM') showing improved sensitivity, including amongst HIV-negative patients. It is important to anticipate the epidemiological impact that current and future LAM tests may have on TB incidence and mortality.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Concentrating on South Africa, we examined the impact that widening LAM test eligibility would have on TB incidence and mortality. We developed a mathematical model of TB transmission to project the impact of LAM tests, distinguishing 'current' tests (with sensitivity consistent with LF-LAM), from hypothetical 'future' tests (having sensitivity consistent with SILVAMP-LAM). We modelled the impact of both tests, assuming full adoption of the 2019 WHO guidelines for the use of these tests amongst those receiving HIV care. We also simulated the hypothetical deployment of future LAM tests for all people presenting to care with TB symptoms, not restricted to PLHIV. Our model projects that 2,700,000 (95% credible interval [CrI] 2,000,000-3,600,000) and 420,000 (95% CrI 350,000-520,000) cumulative TB incident cases and deaths, respectively, would occur between 2020 and 2035 if the status quo is maintained. Relative to this comparator, current and future LAM tests would respectively avert 54 (95% CrI 33-86) and 90 (95% CrI 55-145) TB deaths amongst inpatients between 2020 and 2035, i.e., reductions of 5% (95% CrI 4%-6%) and 9% (95% CrI 7%-11%) in inpatient TB mortality. This impact in absolute deaths averted doubles if testing is expanded to include outpatients, yet remains <1% of country-level TB deaths. Similar patterns apply to incidence results. However, deploying a future LAM test for all people presenting to care with TB symptoms would avert 470,000 (95% CrI 220,000-870,000) incident TB cases (18% reduction, 95% CrI 9%-29%) and 120,000 (95% CrI 69,000-210,000) deaths (30% reduction, 95% CrI 18%-44%) between 2020 and 2035. Notably, this increase in impact arises largely from diagnosis of TB amongst those with HIV who are not yet in HIV care, and who would thus be ineligible for a LAM test under current guidelines. Qualitatively similar results apply under an alternative comparator assuming expanded use of GeneXpert MTB/RIF ('Xpert') for TB diagnosis. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates qualitatively similar results in a setting like Kenya, which also has a generalised HIV epidemic, but a lower burden of HIV/TB coinfection. Amongst limitations of this analysis, we do not address the cost or cost-effectiveness of future tests. Our model neglects drug resistance and focuses on the country-level epidemic, thus ignoring subnational variations in HIV and TB burden.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that LAM tests could have an important effect in averting TB deaths amongst PLHIV with advanced disease. However, achieving population-level impact on the TB epidemic, even in high-HIV-burden settings, will require future LAM tests to have sufficient performance to be deployed more broadly than in HIV care.

HIV programmatic outcomes following implementation of the 'Treat-All' policy in a public sector setting in Eswatini: a prospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

The Treat-All policy - antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation irrespective of CD4 cell criteria - increases access to treatment. Many ART programmes, however, reported increasing attrition and viral failure during treatment expansion, questioning the programmatic feasibility of Treat-All in resource-limited settings. We aimed to describe and compare programmatic outcomes between Treat-All and standard of care (SOC) in the public sectors of Eswatini.

METHODS

This is a prospective cohort study of ≥16-year-old HIV-positive patients initiated on first-line ART under Treat-All and SOC in 18 health facilities of the Shiselweni region, from October 2014 to March 2016. SOC followed the CD4 350 and 500 cells/mm³ treatment eligibility thresholds. Kaplan-Meier estimates were used to describe crude programmatic outcomes. Multivariate flexible parametric survival models were built to assess associations of time from ART initiation with the composite unfavourable outcome of all-cause attrition and viral failure.

RESULTS

Of the 3170 patients, 1888 (59.6%) initiated ART under Treat-All at a median CD4 cell count of 329 (IQR 168 to 488) cells/mm³ compared with 292 (IQR 161 to 430) (p < 0.001) under SOC. Although crude programme retention at 36 months tended to be lower under Treat-All (71%) than SOC (75%) (p = 0.002), it was similar in covariate-adjusted analysis (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.06, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.23). The hazard of viral suppression was higher for Treat-All (aHR 1.12, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.23), while the hazard of viral failure was comparable (Treat-All: aHR 0.89, 95% CI 0.53 to 1.49). Among patients with advanced HIV disease (n = 1080), those under Treat-All (aHR 1.13, 95% CI 0.88 to 1.44) had a similar risk of an composite unfavourable outcome to SOC. Factors increasing the risk of the composite unfavourable outcome under both interventions were aged 16 to 24 years, being unmarried, anaemia, ART initiation on the same day as HIV care enrolment and CD4 ≤ 100 cells/mm³ . Under Treat-All only, the risk of the unfavourable outcome was higher for pregnant women, WHO III/IV clinical stage and elevated creatinine.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared to SOC, Treat-All resulted in comparable retention, improved viral suppression and comparable composite outcomes of retention without viral failure.

HIV treatment outcomes among people with initiation CD4 counts >500 cells/µL after implementation of Treat All in South African public clinics: a retrospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

The World Health Organisation recommends to Treat All people with HIV, irrespective of CD4 count. However, people with CD4 counts >500 cells/µL may be asymptomatic and therefore less motivated to adhere to antiretroviral therapy (ART). We aimed to assess whether people initiated with CD4 counts >500 cells/µL had worse treatment outcomes compared to those initiated at lower CD4 counts.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study among non-pregnant adults initiating ART at eight public clinics in South Africa between September 2016, when Treat All was implemented, and August 2017. We assessed whether initiation CD4 count >500 cells/µL was associated with the outcomes of attrition (death, lost to follow-up or treatment interruption >180 days), and viraemia >1000 copies/mL, by twelve months using Cox proportional hazards and Poisson regression models.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Among 4952 patients initiating ART, the median age was 32.4 years (interquartile range (IQR) 27.2 to 39.7), 58.9% were women and 30.3% had an initiation CD4 count >500 cells/µL. After twelve months, 3382 (68.3%) were retained in care, 303 (6.1%) had transferred to another clinic, 1010 (20.4%) were lost to follow-up, 232 (4.7%) had a treatment interruption >180 days and 25 (0.5%) were known to have died. Overall, 1267 experienced attrition at a median time of 91 days (IQR 23 to 213), with 302 of these (23.8%) experiencing attrition immediately after their ART initiation visit. Among those in care at twelve months with viral load results, 4.6% had viraemia. In multivariable analysis, the hazard of attrition was similar between patients newly eligible for ART with CD4 counts >500 cells/µL compared to those with CD4 ≤500 cells/µL (adjusted hazard ratio 1.03, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.90 to 1.17). The risk of viraemia was lower among patients with CD4 counts >500 cells/µL compared to those with CD4 ≤500 cells/µL (adjusted risk ratio 0.58, 95% CI 0.37 to 0.92).

CONCLUSIONS

After implementation of Treat All in South African public clinics, we found that patients newly eligible for ART with initiation CD4 counts >500 cells/µL had comparable or better outcomes compared to those with lower CD4 counts. These finding support ongoing implementation of Treat All in our setting.

Loss to follow-up from antiretroviral therapy clinics: A systematic review and meta-analysis of published studies in South Africa from 2011 to 2015

Background

South Africa has the largest antiretroviral therapy (ART) programme in the world. To optimise programme outcomes, it is critical that patients are retained in care and that retention is accurately measured.

Objectives

To identify all studies published in South Africa from 2011 to 2015 that used loss to follow-up (LTFU) as an indicator or outcome to describe the variation in definitions and to estimate the proportion of patients lost to care across studies.

Method

All studies published between 01 January 2011 and October 2015 that included loss to follow-up or default from ART care in a South African cohort were included by use of a broad search strategy across multiple databases. To be included, the cohort had to include any patient ART data, including follow-up time, from 01 January 2010. Two authors, working independently, extracted data and assessed risk of bias from all manuscripts. Meta-analysis was performed for studies stratified by the same loss to follow-up definition.

Results

Forty-eight adult, 15 paediatric and 4 pregnant cohorts were included. Median cohort size was 3737; follow-up time ranged from 9 weeks to 5 years. Meta-analysis did not reveal an important difference in LTFU estimates in adult cohorts at 1 year between loss to follow-up defined as 3 months (11.0%, n = 4; 95% CI 10.7% – 11.2%) compared with 6 months (12.0%, n = 4; 95% CI 11.8% – 12.2%). Only two cohorts reported reliable LTFU estimates at 5 years: this was 25.1% (95% CI 24.8% – 25.4%).

Conclusion

South Africa should standardise a LTFU definition. This would aid in monitoring and evaluation of ART programmes, with the broader goal of improving patient outcomes.

Mortality and losses to follow-up among adolescents living with HIV in the IeDEA global cohort collaboration

INTRODUCTION

We assessed mortality and losses to follow-up (LTFU) during adolescence in routine care settings in the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) consortium.

METHODS

Cohorts in the Asia-Pacific, the Caribbean, Central, and South America, and sub-Saharan Africa (Central, East, Southern, West) contributed data, and included adolescents living with HIV (ALHIV) enrolled from January 2003 and aged 10 to 19 years (period of adolescence) while under care up to database closure (June 2016). Follow-up started at age 10 years or the first clinic visit, whichever was later. Entering care at <15 years was a proxy for perinatal infection, while entering care ≥15 years represented infection acquired during adolescence. Competing risk regression was used to assess associations with death and LTFU among those ever receiving triple-drug antiretroviral therapy (triple-ART).

RESULTS

Of the 61,242 ALHIV from 270 clinics in 34 countries included in the analysis, 69% (n = 42,138) entered care <15 years of age (53% female), and 31% (n = 19,104) entered care ≥15 years (81% female). During adolescence, 3.9% died, 30% were LTFU and 8.1% were transferred. For those with infection acquired perinatally versus during adolescence, the four-year cumulative incidences of mortality were 3.9% versus 5.4% and of LTFU were 26% versus 69% respectively (both p < 0.001). Overall, there were higher hazards of death for females (adjusted sub-hazard ratio (asHR) 1.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07 to 1.33), and those starting treatment at ≥5 years of age (highest asHR for age ≥15: 8.72, 95% CI 5.85 to 13.02), and in care in mostly urban (asHR 1.40, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.75) and mostly rural settings (asHR 1.39, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.87) compared to urban settings. Overall, higher hazards of LTFU were observed among females (asHR 1.12, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.17), and those starting treatment at age ≥5 years (highest asHR for age ≥15: 11.11, 95% CI 9.86 to 12.53), in care at district hospitals (asHR 1.27, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.37) or in rural settings (asHR 1.21, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.29), and starting triple-ART after 2006 (highest asHR for 2011 to 2016 1.84, 95% CI 1.71 to 1.99).

CONCLUSIONS

Both mortality and LTFU were worse among those entering care at ≥15 years. ALHIV should be evaluated apart from younger children and adults to identify population-specific reasons for death and LTFU.

"My future is bright…I won't die with the cause of AIDS": ten-year patient ART outcomes and experiences in South Africa

INTRODUCTION

South Africa is moving into a new era of HIV treatment with "treat all" policies where people may be on treatment for most of their lives. We need to understand treatment outcomes and facilitators of long-term antiretroviral treatment (ART) adherence and retention-in-care in the South African context. In one of the first studies to investigate long-term treatment outcomes in South Africa, we aimed to describe ten-year patient outcomes at a large public-sector HIV clinic in Johannesburg and explore patient experiences of the treatment programme over this time in order to ascertain factors that may aid or hinder long-term adherence and retention.

METHODS

We conducted a cohort analysis (n = 6644) and in-depth interviews (n = 24) among HIV-positive adults initiating first-line ART between April 2004 and March 2007. Using clinical records, we ascertained twelve-month and ten-year all-cause mortality and loss to follow-up (LTF). Cox proportional hazards regression was used to identify baseline predictors of attrition (mortality and LTF (>3 months late for the last scheduled visit)) at twelve months and ten years. Twenty-four patients were purposively selected and interviewed to explore treatment programme experiences over ten years on ART.

RESULTS

Excluding transfers, 79.5% (95% confidence intervals (CI): 78.5 to 80.5) of the cohort were alive, in care at twelve months dropping to 35.1% (95% CI: 33.7 to 36.4) at ten years. Over 44% of deaths occurred within 12 months. Ten-year all-cause mortality increased, while LTF decreased slightly, with age. Year and age at ART initiation, sex, nationality, baseline CD4 count, anaemia, body mass index and initiating regimen were predictors of ten-year attrition. Among patients interviewed, the pretreatment clinic environment, feelings of gratitude and good fortune, support networks, and self-efficacy were facilitators of care; side effects, travel and worsening clinical conditions were barriers. Participants were generally optimistic about their futures and were committed to continued care.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates the complexities of long-term chronic HIV treatment with declining all-cause mortality and increasing LTF over ten years. Barriers to long-term retention still present a significant challenge. As more people become eligible for ART in South Africa under "treatment for all," new healthcare delivery challenges will arise; interventions are needed to ensure long-term programme successes continue.