Secondary Infections with Ebola Virus in Rural Communities, Liberia and Guinea, 2014-2015

Ebola Patient Virus Cycle Threshold and Risk of Household Transmission of Ebola Virus

BACKGROUND

Identifying risk factors for household transmission of Ebola virus (EBOV) is important to guide preventive measures during Ebola outbreaks.

METHODS

We enrolled all confirmed persons with EBOV disease who were the first case patient in a household from December 2014 to April 2015 in Freetown, Sierra Leone, and their household contacts. Index patients and contacts were interviewed, and contacts were followed up for 21 days to identify secondary cases. Epidemiologic data were linked to EBOV real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction cycle threshold (Ct) data from initial diagnostic specimens obtained from enrolled index case patients.

RESULTS

Ct data were available for 106 (71%) of 150 enrolled index patients. Of the Ct results, 85 (80%) were from blood specimens from live patients and 21 (20%) from oral swab specimens from deceased patients. The median Ct values for blood and swab specimens were 21.0 and 24.0, respectively (P = .007). In multivariable analysis, a Ct value from blood specimens in the lowest quintile was an independent predictor of both increased risk of household transmission (P = .009) and higher secondary attack rate among household contacts (P = .03), after adjustment for epidemiologic factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest the potential to use Ct values from acute EBOV diagnostic specimens for index patients as an early predictor of high-risk households and high-risk groups of contacts to help prioritize EBOV disease investigation and control efforts.

Household Transmission of Ebola Virus: Risks and Preventive Factors, Freetown, Sierra Leone, 2015

Background

Knowing risk factors for household transmission of Ebola virus is important to guide preventive measures during Ebola outbreaks.

Methods

We enrolled all confirmed persons with Ebola who were the first case in a household, December 2014-April 2015, in Freetown, Sierra Leone, and their household contacts. Cases and contacts were interviewed, contacts followed prospectively through the 21-day incubation period, and secondary cases confirmed by laboratory testing.

Results

We enrolled 150 index Ebola cases and 838 contacts; 83 (9.9%) contacts developed Ebola during 21-day follow-up. In multivariable analysis, risk factors for transmission included index case death in the household, Ebola symptoms but no reported fever, age <20 years, more days with wet symptoms; and providing care to the index case (P < .01 for each). Protective factors included avoiding the index case after illness onset and a piped household drinking water source (P < .01 for each).

Conclusions

To reduce Ebola transmission, communities should rapidly identify and follow-up all household contacts; isolate those with Ebola symptoms, including those without reported fever; and consider closer monitoring of contacts who provided care to cases. Households could consider efforts to minimize risk by designating one care provider for ill persons with all others avoiding the suspected case.

Determinants of Transmission Risk During the Late Stage of the West African Ebola Epidemic

Understanding risk factors for Ebola transmission is key for effective prediction and design of interventions. We used data on 860 cases in 129 chains of transmission from the latter half of the 2013-2016 Ebola epidemic in Guinea. Using negative binomial regression, we determined characteristics associated with the number of secondary cases resulting from each infected individual. We found that attending an Ebola treatment unit was associated with a 38% decrease in secondary cases (incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 0.62, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.38, 0.99) among individuals that did not survive. Unsafe burial was associated with a higher number of secondary cases (IRR = 1.82, 95% CI: 1.10, 3.02). The average number of secondary cases was higher for the first generation of a transmission chain (mean = 1.77) compared with subsequent generations (mean = 0.70). Children were least likely to transmit (IRR = 0.35, 95% CI: 0.21, 0.57) compared with adults, whereas older adults were associated with higher numbers of secondary cases. Men were less likely to transmit than women (IRR = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.55, 0.93). This detailed surveillance data set provided an invaluable insight into transmission routes and risks. Our analysis highlights the key role that age, receiving treatment, and safe burial played in the spread of EVD.

Variability in Intrahousehold Transmission of Ebola Virus, and Estimation of the Household Secondary Attack Rate

Transmission between family members accounts for most Ebola virus transmission, but little is known about determinants of intrahousehold spread. From detailed exposure histories, intrahousehold transmission chains were created for 94 households of Ebola survivors in Sierra Leone: 109 (co-)primary cases gave rise to 317 subsequent cases (0-100% of those exposed). Larger households were more likely to have subsequent cases, and the proportion of household members affected depended on individual and household-level factors. More transmissions occurred from older than from younger cases, and from those with more severe disease. The estimated household secondary attack rate was 18%.

Food Insecurity as a Risk Factor for Outcomes Related to Ebola Virus Disease in Kono District, Sierra Leone: A Cross-Sectional Study

Studies have shown that people suffering from food insecurity are at higher risk for infectious and noncommunicable diseases and have poorer health outcomes. No study, however, has examined the association between food insecurity and outcomes related to Ebola virus disease (EVD). We conducted a cross-sectional study in two Ebola-affected communities in Kono district, Sierra Leone, from November 2015 to September 2016. We enrolled persons who were determined to have been exposed to Ebola virus. We assessed the association of food insecurity, using an adapted version of the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale, a nine-item scale well validated across Africa, with having been diagnosed with EVD and having died of EVD, using logistic regression models with cluster-adjusted standard errors. We interviewed 326 persons who were exposed to Ebola virus; 61 (19%) were diagnosed with EVD and 45/61 (74%) died. We found high levels (87%) of food insecurity, but there was no association between food insecurity and having been diagnosed with EVD. Among EVD cases, those who were food insecure had 18.3 times the adjusted odds of death than those who were food secure (P = 0.03). This is the first study to demonstrate a potential relationship between food insecurity and having died of EVD, although larger prospective studies are needed to confirm these findings.

The factors affecting household transmission dynamics and community compliance with Ebola control measures: a mixed-methods study in a rural village in Sierra Leone

Background

Little is understood of Ebola virus disease (EVD) transmission dynamics and community compliance with control measures over time. Understanding these interactions is essential if interventions are to be effective in future outbreaks. We conducted a mixed-methods study to explore these factors in a rural village that experienced sustained EVD transmission in Kailahun District, Sierra Leone.

Methods

We reconstructed transmission dynamics using a cross-sectional survey conducted in April 2015, and cross-referenced our results with surveillance, burial, and Ebola Management Centre (EMC) data. Factors associated with EVD transmission were assessed with Cox proportional hazards regression. Following the survey, qualitative semi-structured interviews explored views of community informants and households.

Results

All households (n = 240; 1161 individuals) participated in the survey. 29 of 31 EVD probable/confirmed cases died (93·5% case fatality rate); six deaths (20·6%) had been missed by other surveillance systems. Transmission over five generations lasted 16 weeks. Although most households had ≤5 members there was a significant increase in risk of Ebola in households with > 5 members. Risk of EVD was also associated with older age. Cases were spatially clustered; all occurred in 15 households.

EVD transmission was better understood when the community experience started to concord with public health messages being given. Perceptions of contact tracing changed from invading privacy and selling people to ensuring community safety. Burials in plastic bags, without female attendants or prayer, were perceived as dishonourable. Further reasons for low compliance were low EMC survival rates, family perceptions of a moral duty to provide care to relatives, poor communication with the EMC, and loss of livelihoods due to quarantine. Compliance with response measures increased only after the second generation, coinciding with the implementation of restrictive by-laws, return of the first survivor, reduced contact with dead bodies, and admission of patients to the EMC.

Conclusions

Transmission occurred primarily in a few large households, with prolonged transmission and a high death toll. Return of a survivor to the village and more effective implementation of control strategies coincided with increased compliance to control measures, with few subsequent cases. We propose key recommendations for management of EVD outbreaks based on this experience.

Operational evaluation of rapid diagnostic testing for Ebola Virus Disease in Guinean laboratories

Background

Rapid Diagnostic Tests (RDTs) for Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) at the point of care have the potential to increase access and acceptability of EVD testing and the speed of patient isolation and secure burials for suspect cases. A pilot program for EVD RDTs in high risk areas of Guinea was introduced in October 2015. This paper presents concordance data between EVD RDTs and PCR testing in the field as well as an assessment of the acceptability, feasibility, and quality assurance of the RDT program.

Methods and findings

Concordance data were compiled from laboratory surveillance databases. The operational measures of the laboratory-based EVD RDT program were evaluated at all 34 sentinel sites in Guinea through: (1) a technical questionnaire filled by the lab technicians who performed the RDTs, (2) a checklist filled by the evaluator during the site visits, and (3) direct observation of the lab technicians performing the quality control test. Acceptability of the EVD RDT was good for technicians, patients, and families although many technicians (69.8%) expressed concern for their safety while performing the test. The feasibility of the program was good based on average technician knowledge scores (6.6 out of 8) but basic infrastructure, equipment, and supplies were lacking. There was much room for improvement in quality assurance of the program.

Conclusions

The implementation of new diagnostics in weak laboratory systems requires general training in quality assurance, biosafety and communication with patients in addition to specific training for the new test. Corresponding capacity building in terms of basic equipment and a long-term commitment to transfer supervision and quality improvement to national public health staff are necessary for successful implementation.

Attitudes about vaccines to prevent Ebola virus disease in Guinea at the end of a large Ebola epidemic: Results of a national household survey

INTRODUCTION

In 2014-2016, an Ebola epidemic devastated Guinea; more than 3800 cases and 2500 deaths were reported to the World Health Organization. In August 2015, as the epidemic waned and clinical trials of an experimental, Ebola vaccine continued in Guinea and neighboring Sierra Leone, we conducted a national household survey about Ebola-related knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) and opinions about "hypothetical" Ebola vaccines.

METHODS

Using cluster-randomized sampling, we selected participants aged 15+ years old in Guinea's 8 administrative regions, which had varied cumulative case counts. The questionnaire assessed socio-demographic characteristics, experiences during the epidemic, Ebola-related KAP, and Ebola vaccine attitudes. To assess the potential for Ebola vaccine introduction in Guinea, we examined the association between vaccine attitudes and participants' characteristics using categorical and multivariable analyses.

RESULTS

Of 6699 persons invited to participate, 94% responded to at least 1 Ebola vaccine question. Most agreed that vaccines were needed to fight the epidemic (85.8%) and that their family would accept safe, effective Ebola vaccines if they became available in Guinea (84.2%). These measures of interest and acceptability were significantly more common among participants who were male, wealthier, more educated, and lived with young children who had received routine vaccines. Interest and acceptability were also significantly higher among participants who understood Ebola transmission modes, had witnessed Ebola response teams, knew Ebola-affected persons, believed Ebola was not always fatal, and would access Ebola treatment centers. In multivariable analyses of the majority of participants living with young children, interest and acceptability were significantly higher among those living with vaccinated children than among those living with unvaccinated children.

DISCUSSION

The high acceptability of hypothetical vaccines indicates strong potential for introducing Ebola vaccines across Guinea. Strategies to build public confidence in use of Ebola vaccines should highlight any similarities with safe, effective vaccines routinely used in Guinea.

Asymptomatic infection and unrecognised Ebola virus disease in Ebola-affected households in Sierra Leone: a cross-sectional study using a new non-invasive assay for antibodies to Ebola virus

BACKGROUND

The frequency of asymptomatic infection with Ebola virus is unclear: previous estimates vary and there is no standard test. Asymptomatic infection with Ebola virus could contribute to population immunity, reducing spread. If people with asymptomatic infection are infectious it could explain re-emergences of Ebola virus disease (EVD) without known contact.

METHODS

We validated a new oral fluid anti-glycoprotein IgG capture assay among survivors from Kerry Town Ebola Treatment Centre and controls from communities unaffected by EVD in Sierra Leone. We then assessed the seroprevalence of antibodies to Ebola virus in a cross-sectional study of household contacts of the survivors. All household members were interviewed. Two reactive tests were required for a positive result, with a third test to resolve any discrepancies.

FINDINGS

The assay had a specificity of 100% (95% CI 98·9-100; 339 of 339 controls tested negative) and sensitivity of 95·9% (89·8-98·9; 93 of 97 PCR-confirmed survivors tested positive). Of household contacts not diagnosed with EVD, 47·6% (229 of 481) had high level exposure (direct contact with a corpse, body fluids, or a case with diarrhoea, vomiting, or bleeding). Among the contacts, 12·0% (95% CI 6·1-20·4; 11 of 92) with symptoms at the time other household members had EVD, and 2·6% (1·2-4·7; 10 of 388) with no symptoms tested positive. Among asymptomatic contacts, seropositivity was weakly correlated with exposure level.

INTERPRETATION

This new highly specific and sensitive assay showed asymptomatic infection with Ebola virus was uncommon despite high exposure. The low prevalence suggests asymptomatic infection contributes little to herd immunity in Ebola, and even if infectious, would account for few transmissions.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust ERAES Programme, Save the Children.

Ebola: Anatomy of an Epidemic

As of the end of March 2016, the West Africa epidemic of Ebola virus disease (Ebola) had resulted in a total of 28,646 cases, 11,323 of them fatal, reported to the World Health Organization. Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone were most heavily affected, but Ebola cases were exported to several other African and European countries as well as the United States, with limited further transmission, including to healthcare workers. We review the descriptive epidemiology of the outbreak, novel aspects and insights concerning the unprecedented response, scientific observations, and public health implications. The large number of Ebola survivors has highlighted the frequency of persistent symptoms and the possibility of virus persistence in sanctuary sites, sometimes leading to delayed transmission. Although transmission appears to have ceased in 2016, the West Africa Ebola epidemic has profoundly influenced discussions and practice concerning global health security.