Asymptomatic COVID-19 in South Africa - implications for the control of transmission

The role of wastewater-based epidemiology for SARS-CoV-2 in developing countries: Cumulative evidence from South Africa supports sentinel site surveillance to guide public health decision-making

The uptake of wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) for SARS-CoV-2 as a complementary tool for monitoring population-level epidemiological features of the COVID-19 pandemic in low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs) is low. We report on the findings from the South African SARS-CoV-2 WBE surveillance network and make recommendations regarding the implementation of WBE in LMICs. Eight laboratories quantified influent wastewater collected from 87 wastewater treatment plants in all nine South African provinces from 01 June 2021 to 31 May 2022 inclusive, during the 3rd and 4th waves of COVID-19. Correlation and regression analyses between wastewater levels of SARS-CoV-2 and district laboratory-confirmed caseloads were conducted. The sensitivity and specificity of novel 'rules' based on WBE data to predict an epidemic wave were determined. Amongst 2158 wastewater samples, 543/648 (85 %) samples taken during a wave tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 compared with 842 positive tests from 1512 (55 %) samples taken during the interwave period. Overall, the regression-co-efficient was 0,66 (95 % confidence interval = 0,6-0,72, R2 = 0.59), ranging from 0.14 to 0.87 by testing laboratory. Early warning of the 4th wave of SARS-CoV-2 in Gauteng Province in November-December 2021 was demonstrated. A 50 % increase in log copies of SARS-CoV-2 compared with a rolling mean over the previous five weeks was the most sensitive predictive rule (58 %) to predict a new wave. Our findings support investment in WBE for SARS-CoV-2 surveillance in LMICs as an early warning tool. Standardising test methodology is necessary due to varying correlation strengths across laboratories and redundancy across testing plants. A sentinel site model can be used for surveillance networks without affecting WBE finding for decision-making. Further research is needed to identify optimal test frequency and the need for normalisation to population size to identify predictive and interpretive rules to support early warning and public health action.

Seroprevalence survey of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody and associated factors in South Africa: Findings of the 2020-2021 population-based household survey

Population-based serological testing is important to understand the epidemiology and estimate the true cumulative incidence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) to inform public health interventions. This study reports findings of a national household population SARS-CoV-2 serosurvey in people 12 years and older in South Africa. This cross-sectional multi-stage random stratified cluster survey undertaken from November 2020 to June 2021 collected sociodemographic data, medical history, behavioural data, and blood samples from consenting participants. The samples were tested for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies using the Roche ElecsysAnti-SARS-CoV-2 chemiluminescence immunoassay (CLIA) Total Antibody Test. The survey data were weighted by age, race, sex, and province with final individual weights benchmarked against the 2020 mid-year population estimates and accounted for clustering. Descriptive statistics summarize the characteristics of participants and seroprevalence. Logistic regression analyses were used to identify factors associated with seropositivity. From 13290 survey participants (median age 33 years, interquartile range (IQR) 23-46 years), SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was 37.8% [95% Confidence Interval (CI) 35.4-40.4] and varied substantially across the country's nine provinces, and by sex, age and locality type. In the final adjusted model, the odds of seropositivity were higher in women than in men [aOR = 1.3 (95% CI: 1.0-1.6), p = 0.027], and those living with HIV (self-report) [aOR = 1.6 (95% CI: 1.0-2.4), p = 0.031]. The odds were lower among those 50 years and older compared to adolescents 12-19 years old [aOR = 0.6 (95% CI: 0.5-0.8), p<0.001] and in those who did not attend events or gatherings [aOR = 0.7 (95% CI: 0.6-1.0), p = 0.020]. The findings help us understand the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 within different regions in a low-middle-income country. The survey highlights the higher risk of infection in women in South Africa likely driven by their home and workplace roles and also highlighted a need to actively target and include younger people in the COVID-19 response.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G in HIV-positive and HIV-negative individuals in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Background

KwaZulu-Natal ranked second highest among South African provinces for the number of laboratory-confirmed cases during the second wave of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic. The seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 among certain vulnerable groups, such as people living with HIV in KwaZulu-Natal, is unknown.

Objective

The study aimed to determine the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G (IgG) in HIV-positive versus HIV-negative patients.

Methods

This was a retrospective analysis of residual clinical blood specimens unrelated to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) submitted for diagnostic testing at Inkosi Albert Luthuli Central Hospital, Durban, from 10 November 2020 to 09 February 2021. Specimens were tested for SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G on the Abbott Architect analyser.

Results

A total of 1977/8829 (22.4%) specimens were positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Seroprevalence varied between health districts from 16.4% to 37.3%, and was 19% in HIV-positive and 35.3% in HIV-negative specimens. Seroprevalence was higher among female patients (23.6% vs 19.8%; p < 0.0001) and increased with increasing age, with a statistically significant difference between the farthest age groups (< 10 years and > 79 years; p < 0.0001). The seroprevalence increased from 17% on 10 November 2020 to 43% on 09 February 2021 during the second wave.

Conclusion

Our results highlight that during the second COVID-19 wave in KwaZulu-Natal a large proportion of people living with HIV were still immunologically susceptible. The reduced seropositivity in people with virological failure further emphasises the importance of targeted vaccination and vaccine response monitoring in these individuals.

What the study adds

This study contributes to data on SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence before and during the second wave in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, which has the highest HIV prevalence globally. Reduced seropositivity was found among people living with HIV with virological failure, highlighting the importance of targeted booster vaccination and vaccine response monitoring.

Household costs and care seeking patterns associated with COVID-19 in Blantyre, Malawi

Economic consequences of COVID-19 illness and healthcare use for households in low income countries are not well known. We estimated costs associated with COVID-19 care-seeking and treatment from a household perspective and assessed determinants of treatment costs. A cross-sectional household survey was conducted between December 2020 and November 2021 in urban and peri-urban areas of Blantyre district. Adults (age ≥18 years) with confirmed COVID-19 were asked to report the symptoms they experienced or prompted them to seek COVID-19 tests as well as healthcare seeking behaviors preceding and following COVID-19 diagnosis. For individuals who sought healthcare, information on out-of-pocket expenditures incurred while seeking and receiving care including on transport, food etc. by both the patients and their guardians was collected. Finally, data on time use seeking, receiving care and during convalesces was recorded. Multivariate Generalized Linear Models were used to evaluate association between household COVID-19 costs and their determinants. Of 171 individuals who took part in the study, the average age was 40.7 years, standard deviation (SD) 15.0, and 50.8% were females. Most participants (85.3%) were symptomatic. Of these, 67.8% sought care at health facilities and the majority (91.7%) were treated as outpatients. The average total household cost associated with COVID-19 seeking, receiving care and convalescence was $62.81 (SD $126.02). Average costs for outpatient and inpatient cases were $52.96 (SD $54.35) and $172.39 (SD $407.08), respectively. Average out-of-pocket household expenditures were $42.62 (SD $123.10), accounting for 62% of total household costs. Being a male COVID-19 patient and engagement in formal employment were significantly associated with high COVID-19 household costs. Households face high economic burden related to COVID-19 sickness and healthcare use. Social policies that support households cope with both the direct and indirect COVID-19 cost are needed to ensure access to healthcare and protect households from COVID-19 related shocks.

Interest of seroprevalence surveys for the epidemiological surveillance of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in African populations: Insights from the ARIACOV project in Benin

BACKGROUND

Many SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence surveys since the end of 2020 have disqualified the first misconception that Africa had been spared by the pandemic. Through the analysis of three SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence surveys carried out in Benin as part of the ARIACOV project, we argue that the integration of epidemiological serosurveillance of the SARS-CoV-2 infection in the national surveillance packages would be of great use to refine the understanding of the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa.

METHODS

We carried out three repeated cross-sectional surveys in Benin: two in Cotonou, the economic capital in March and May 2021, and one in Natitingou, a semi-rural city in the north of the country in August 2021. Total and weighted-by-age-group seroprevalences were estimated and the risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection were assessed by multivariate logistic regression.

RESULTS

In Cotonou, a slight increase in overall age-standardised SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence from 29.77% (95% CI: 23.12%-37.41%) at the first survey to 34.86% (95% CI: 31.57%-38.30%) at the second survey was observed. In Natitingou, the globally adjusted seroprevalence was 33.34% (95% CI: 27.75%-39.44%). A trend of high risk for SARS-CoV 2 seropositivity was observed in adults over 40 versus the young (less than 18 years old) during the first survey in Cotonou but no longer in the second survey.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show that, however, rapid organisation of preventive measures aimed at breaking the chains of transmission, they were ultimately unable to prevent a wide spread of the virus in the population. Routine serological surveillance on strategic sentinel sites and/or populations could constitute a cost-effective compromise to better anticipate the onset of new waves and define public health strategies.

SARS-CoV-2 infection in Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis of standardised seroprevalence studies, from January 2020 to December 2021

INTRODUCTION

Estimating COVID-19 cumulative incidence in Africa remains problematic due to challenges in contact tracing, routine surveillance systems and laboratory testing capacities and strategies. We undertook a meta-analysis of population-based seroprevalence studies to estimate SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in Africa to inform evidence-based decision making on public health and social measures (PHSM) and vaccine strategy.

METHODS

We searched for seroprevalence studies conducted in Africa published 1 January 2020-30 December 2021 in Medline, Embase, Web of Science and Europe PMC (preprints), grey literature, media releases and early results from WHO Unity studies. All studies were screened, extracted, assessed for risk of bias and evaluated for alignment with the WHO Unity seroprevalence protocol. We conducted descriptive analyses of seroprevalence and meta-analysed seroprevalence differences by demographic groups, place and time. We estimated the extent of undetected infections by comparing seroprevalence and cumulative incidence of confirmed cases reported to WHO.

PROSPERO

CRD42020183634.

RESULTS

We identified 56 full texts or early results, reporting 153 distinct seroprevalence studies in Africa. Of these, 97 (63%) were low/moderate risk of bias studies. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence rose from 3.0% (95% CI 1.0% to 9.2%) in April-June 2020 to 65.1% (95% CI 56.3% to 73.0%) in July-September 2021. The ratios of seroprevalence from infection to cumulative incidence of confirmed cases was large (overall: 100:1, ranging from 18:1 to 954:1) and steady over time. Seroprevalence was highly heterogeneous both within countries-urban versus rural (lower seroprevalence for rural geographic areas), children versus adults (children aged 0-9 years had the lowest seroprevalence)-and between countries and African subregions.

CONCLUSION

We report high seroprevalence in Africa suggesting greater population exposure to SARS-CoV-2 and potential protection against COVID-19 severe disease than indicated by surveillance data. As seroprevalence was heterogeneous, targeted PHSM and vaccination strategies need to be tailored to local epidemiological situations.

Frontline healthcare workers' experiences of providing care during the COVID-19 pandemic at a COVID-19 centre in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe: A phenomenological study

Background

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a far-reaching, negative impact on healthcare systems worldwide. Healthcare workers play a critical role in the country’s healthcare delivery system, as they facilitate a continuum of care and containment of diseases such as the COVID-19 pandemic.

Objectives

The aim of this study was to explore and describe the experiences of healthcare workers who provided care to COVID-19 patients at a central hospital in Zimbabwe.

Method

The researchers used an interpretative phenomenological analysis design. In-depth interviews were conducted virtually with 10 frontline healthcare workers working at a COVID-19 centre in Zimbabwe. Data collection was guided by an interview guide. All audio-recorded interview data were transcribed verbatim into written text. Data analysis was conducted using an interpretative phenomenological analysis framework. An expert in qualitative research acted as an independent co-coder and conducted the open coding of each transcript.

Results

Findings reveal inadequate preparation and training of healthcare providers before the commencement of duty, resources-related challenges and a lack of support as significant experiences of healthcare providers. Moreover, healthcare providers have been subjected to stigma and discrimination attached to COVID-19, resulting in psychological effects on frontline healthcare providers.

Conclusion

The COVID-19 pandemic brings unique and challenging experiences for frontline healthcare workers, resulting in a physically and emotionally drained workforce. This study calls for comprehensive support in the form of counselling, reasonable work schedules, training and adequate provision of personal protective equipment.

SARS-CoV-2 infection and antibody seroprevalence in routine surveillance patients, healthcare workers and general population in Kita region, Mali: an observational study 2020-2021

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the degree of SARS-CoV-2 transmission among healthcare workers (HCWs) and general population in Kita region of Mali.

DESIGN

Routine surveillance in 12 health facilities, HCWs serosurvey in five health facilities and community serosurvey in 16 villages in or near Kita town, Mali.

SETTING

Kita region, western Mali; local health centres around the central (regional) referral health centre.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients in routine surveillance, HCWs in local health centres and community members of all ages in populations associated with study health centres.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Seropositivity of ELISA test detecting SARS-CoV-2-specific total antibodies and real-time RT-PCR confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection.

RESULTS

From 2392 routine surveillance samples, 68 (2.8%, 95% CI: 2.2% to 3.6%) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by RT-PCR. The monthly positivity rate was 0% in June-August 2020 and gradually increased to 6% by December 2020 and 6.2% by January 2021, then declined to 5.5%, 3.3%, 3.6% and 0.8% in February, March, April and May 2021, respectively. From 397 serum samples collected from 113 HCWs, 175 (44.1%, 95% CI: 39.1% to 49.1%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. The monthly seroprevalence was around 10% from September to November 2020 and increased to over 40% from December 2020 to May 2021. For community serosurvey in December 2020, overall seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was 27.7%. The highest age-stratified seroprevalence was observed in participants aged 60-69 years (45.5%, 95% CI: 32.3% to 58.6%). The lowest was in children aged 0-9 years (14.0%, 95% CI: 7.4% to 20.6%).

CONCLUSIONS

SARS-CoV-2 in rural Mali is much more widespread than assumed by national testing data and particularly in the older population and frontline HCWs. The observation is contrary to the widely expressed view, based on limited data, that COVID-19 infection rates were lower in 2020-2021 in West Africa than in other settings.

Occurrence and transmission potential of asymptomatic and presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections: Update of a living systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Debate about the level of asymptomatic Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection continues. The amount of evidence is increasing and study designs have changed over time. We updated a living systematic review to address 3 questions: (1) Among people who become infected with SARS-CoV-2, what proportion does not experience symptoms at all during their infection? (2) What is the infectiousness of asymptomatic and presymptomatic, compared with symptomatic, SARS-CoV-2 infection? (3) What proportion of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a population is accounted for by people who are asymptomatic or presymptomatic?

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The protocol was first published on 1 April 2020 and last updated on 18 June 2021. We searched PubMed, Embase, bioRxiv, and medRxiv, aggregated in a database of SARS-CoV-2 literature, most recently on 6 July 2021. Studies of people with PCR-diagnosed SARS-CoV-2, which documented symptom status at the beginning and end of follow-up, or mathematical modelling studies were included. Studies restricted to people already diagnosed, of single individuals or families, or without sufficient follow-up were excluded. One reviewer extracted data and a second verified the extraction, with disagreement resolved by discussion or a third reviewer. Risk of bias in empirical studies was assessed with a bespoke checklist and modelling studies with a published checklist. All data syntheses were done using random effects models. Review question (1): We included 130 studies. Heterogeneity was high so we did not estimate a mean proportion of asymptomatic infections overall (interquartile range (IQR) 14% to 50%, prediction interval 2% to 90%), or in 84 studies based on screening of defined populations (IQR 20% to 65%, prediction interval 4% to 94%). In 46 studies based on contact or outbreak investigations, the summary proportion asymptomatic was 19% (95% confidence interval (CI) 15% to 25%, prediction interval 2% to 70%). (2) The secondary attack rate in contacts of people with asymptomatic infection compared with symptomatic infection was 0.32 (95% CI 0.16 to 0.64, prediction interval 0.11 to 0.95, 8 studies). (3) In 13 modelling studies fit to data, the proportion of all SARS-CoV-2 transmission from presymptomatic individuals was higher than from asymptomatic individuals. Limitations of the evidence include high heterogeneity and high risks of selection and information bias in studies that were not designed to measure persistently asymptomatic infection, and limited information about variants of concern or in people who have been vaccinated.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on studies published up to July 2021, most SARS-CoV-2 infections were not persistently asymptomatic, and asymptomatic infections were less infectious than symptomatic infections. Summary estimates from meta-analysis may be misleading when variability between studies is extreme and prediction intervals should be presented. Future studies should determine the asymptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections caused by variants of concern and in people with immunity following vaccination or previous infection. Without prospective longitudinal studies with methods that minimise selection and measurement biases, further updates with the study types included in this living systematic review are unlikely to be able to provide a reliable summary estimate of the proportion of asymptomatic infections caused by SARS-CoV-2.

REVIEW PROTOCOL

Open Science Framework (https://osf.io/9ewys/).

Community SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence before and after the second wave of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Harare, Zimbabwe

BACKGROUND

By the end of July 2021 Zimbabwe, has reported over 100,000 SARS-CoV-2 infections. The true number of SARS-CoV-2 infections is likely to be much higher. We conducted a seroprevalence survey to estimate the prevalence of past SARS-CoV-2 in three high-density communities in Harare, Zimbabwe before and after the second wave of SARS-CoV-2.

METHODS

Between November 2020 and April 2021 we conducted a cross-sectional study of randomly selected households in three high-density communities (Budiriro, Highfield and Mbare) in Harare. Consenting participants answered a questionnaire and a dried blood spot sample was taken. Samples were tested for anti-SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antibodies using the Roche e801 platform.

FINDINGS

A total of 2340 individuals participated in the study. SARS-CoV-2 antibody results were available for 70·1% (620/885) and 73·1% (1530/2093) of eligible participants in 2020 and 2021. The median age was 22 (IQR 10-37) years and 978 (45·5%) were men. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was 19·0% (95% CI 15·1-23·5%) in 2020 and 53·0% (95% CI 49·6-56·4) in 2021. The prevalence ratio was 2·47 (95% CI 1·94-3·15) comparing 2020 with 2021 after adjusting for age, sex, and community. Almost half of all participants who tested positive reported no symptoms in the preceding six months.

INTERPRETATION

Following the second wave, one in two people had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 suggesting high levels of community transmission. Our results suggest that 184,800 (172,900-196,700) SARS-CoV-2 infections occurred in these three communities alone, greatly exceeding the reported number of cases for the whole city. Further seroprevalence surveys are needed to understand transmission during the current third wave despite high prevalence of past infections.

FUNDING

GCRF, Government of Canada, Wellcome Trust, Bavarian State Ministry of Sciences, Research, and the Arts.