Quantum physics in connected worlds

Theoretical research into many-body quantum systems has mostly focused on regular structures which have a small, simple unit cell and where a vanishingly small fraction of the pairs of the constituents directly interact. Motivated by advances in control over the pairwise interactions in many-body simulators, we determine the fate of spin systems on more general, arbitrary graphs. Placing the minimum possible constraints on the underlying graph, we prove how, with certainty in the thermodynamic limit, such systems behave like a single collective spin. We thus understand the emergence of complex many-body physics as dependent on 'exceptional', geometrically constrained structures such as the low-dimensional, regular ones found in nature. Within the space of dense graphs we identify hitherto unknown exceptions via their inhomogeneity and observe how complexity is heralded in these systems by entanglement and highly non-uniform correlation functions. Our work paves the way for the discovery and exploitation of a whole class of geometries which can host uniquely complex phases of matter.

The distribution of initial estimates moderates the effect of social influence on the wisdom of the crowd

Whether, and under what conditions, groups exhibit “crowd wisdom” has been a major focus of research across the social and computational sciences. Much of this work has focused on the role of social influence in promoting the wisdom of the crowd versus leading the crowd astray and has resulted in conflicting conclusions about how social network structure determines the impact of social influence. Here, we demonstrate that it is not enough to consider the network structure in isolation. Using theoretical analysis, numerical simulation, and reanalysis of four experimental datasets (totaling 2885 human subjects), we find that the wisdom of crowds critically depends on the interaction between (i) the centralization of the social influence network and (ii) the distribution of the initial individual estimates. By adopting a framework that integrates both the structure of the social influence and the distribution of the initial estimates, we bring previously conflicting results under one theoretical framework and clarify the effects of social influence on the wisdom of crowds.

Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration

How predictable are life trajectories? We investigated this question with a scientific mass collaboration using the common task method; 160 teams built predictive models for six life outcomes using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a high-quality birth cohort study. Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, the best predictions were not very accurate and were only slightly better than those from a simple benchmark model. Within each outcome, prediction error was strongly associated with the family being predicted and weakly associated with the technique used to generate the prediction. Overall, these results suggest practical limits to the predictability of life outcomes in some settings and illustrate the value of mass collaborations in the social sciences.