Measles virus transmission patterns and public health responses during Operation Allies Welcome: a descriptive epidemiological study

BACKGROUND

On Aug 29, 2021, Operation Allies Welcome (OAW) was established to support the resettlement of more than 80 000 Afghan evacuees in the USA. After identification of measles among evacuees, incoming evacuee flights were temporarily paused, and mass measles vaccination of evacuees aged 6 months or older was introduced domestically and overseas, with a 21-day quarantine period after vaccination. We aimed to evaluate patterns of measles virus transmission during this outbreak and the impact of control measures.

METHODS

We conducted a measles outbreak investigation among Afghan evacuees who were resettled in the USA as part of OAW. Patients with measles were defined as individuals with an acute febrile rash illness between Aug 29, 2021, and Nov 26, 2021, and either laboratory confirmation of infection or epidemiological link to a patient with measles with laboratory confirmation. We analysed the demographics and clinical characteristics of patients with measles and used epidemiological information and whole-genome sequencing to track transmission pathways. A transmission model was used to evaluate the effects of vaccination and other interventions.

FINDINGS

47 people with measles (attack rate: 0·65 per 1000 evacuees) were reported in six US locations housing evacuees in four states. The median age of patients was 1 year (range 0-26); 33 (70%) were younger than 5 years. The age distribution shifted during the outbreak towards infants younger than 12 months. 20 (43%) patients with wild-type measles virus had rash onset after vaccination. No fatalities or community spread were identified, nor further importations after flight resumption. In a non-intervention scenario, transmission models estimated that a median of 5506 cases (IQR 10-5626) could have occurred. Infection clusters based on epidemiological criteria could be delineated into smaller clusters using phylogenetic analyses; however, sequences with few substitution count differences did not always indicate single lines of transmission.

INTERPRETATION

Implementation of control measures limited measles transmission during OAW. Our findings highlight the importance of integration between epidemiological and genetic information in discerning between individual lines of transmission in an elimination setting.

FUNDING

US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Lack of Alignment Between WHO Joint External Evaluation and State Party Self-Assessment Scores Undermines Utility as Evaluation Tools for the Department of Defense

The International Health Regulations 2005 (IHR) set standards for countries to detect and respond to public health threats such as COVID-19. The US Department of Defense engages with partner nations to build IHR-related health security capacities. In this article, we compare 2 elements of the IHR Monitoring and Evaluation Framework to determine if they align in a useful way. The version of the State Party Annual Reporting tool (SPAR) used for this study is a self-assessment of 13 capacities, while the Joint External Evaluation (JEE) requires collaboration with international subject matter experts to evaluate 19 capacities. The SPAR indicators are scored separately from 0% to 100%, whereas the JEE uses a rank-ordered scale from 1 to 5 for variable numbers of indicators in each capacity. Using 2018-2019 data from the World Health Organization, we quantitatively and qualitatively evaluated the alignment of the SPAR and JEE scoring systems, using paired t tests for related capacities and 3 approaches to matching the scales. Whether using a simple, evenly divided scale for the SPAR or downscaling the SPAR scores to match with lower JEE scores, the paired t tests indicate that the JEE and SPAR scoring systems are not aligned. Many of the capacities in the JEE and SPAR are defined differently, pointing to one of the reasons for the discordance. We discuss implications for revision of the JEE and SPAR assessment tools along with ways in which the scores might be used for planning global health engagement capacity-building activities.

An Innovative, Prospective, Hybrid Cohort-Cluster Study Design to Characterize Dengue Virus Transmission in Multigenerational Households in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand

Difficulties inherent in the identification of immune correlates of protection or severe disease have challenged the development and evaluation of dengue vaccines. There persist substantial gaps in knowledge about the complex effects of age and sequential dengue virus (DENV) exposures on these correlations. To address these gaps, we were conducting a novel family-based cohort-cluster study for DENV transmission in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand. The study began in 2015 and is funded until at least 2023. As of May 2019, 2,870 individuals in 485 families were actively enrolled. The families comprise at least 1 child born into the study as a newborn, 1 other child, a parent, and a grandparent. The median age of enrolled participants is 21 years (range 0–93 years). Active surveillance is performed to detect acute dengue illnesses, and annual blood testing identifies subclinical seroconversions. Extended follow-up of this cohort will detect sequential infections and correlate antibody kinetics and sequence of infections with disease outcomes. The central goal of this prospective study is to characterize how different DENV exposure histories within multigenerational family units, from DENV-naive infants to grandparents with multiple prior DENV exposures, affect transmission, disease, and protection at the level of the individual, household, and community.

Association between semi-quantitative microbial load and respiratory symptoms among Thai military recruits: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Multiplex real-time polymerase chain reaction assays have improved diagnostic sensitivity for a wide range of pathogens. However, co-detection of multiple agents and bacterial colonization make it difficult to distinguish between asymptomatic infection or illness aetiology. We assessed whether semi-quantitative microbial load data can differentiate between symptomatic and asymptomatic states for common respiratory pathogens.

METHODS

We obtained throat and nasal swab samples from military trainees at two Thai Army barracks. Specimens were collected at the start and end of 10-week training periods (non-acute samples), and from individuals who developed upper respiratory tract infection during training (acute samples). We analysed the samples using a commercial multiplex respiratory panel comprising 33 bacterial, viral and fungal targets. We used random effects tobit models to compare cycle threshold (Ct) value distributions from non-acute and acute samples.

RESULTS

We analysed 341 non-acute and 145 acute swab samples from 274 participants. Haemophilus influenzae type B was the most commonly detected microbe (77.4% of non-acute and 64.8% of acute samples). In acute samples, nine specific microbe pairs were detected more frequently than expected by chance. Regression models indicated significantly lower microbial load in non-acute relative to acute samples for H. influenzae non-type B, Streptococcus pneumoniae and rhinovirus, although it was not possible to identify a Ct-value threshold indicating causal etiology for any of these organisms.

CONCLUSIONS

Semi-quantitative measures of microbial concentration did not reliably differentiate between illness and asymptomatic colonization, suggesting that clinical symptoms may not always be directly related to microbial load for common respiratory infections.