Using national data to model the New Zealand radiation oncology workforce

Introduction

Demand for radiation therapy is expected to increase over time. In Aotearoa/New Zealand, the radiation oncology workforce experiences high numbers of clinical hours but an intervention rate that is lower than in comparable countries, suggesting unmet treatment need. Accurate models on the supply and demand for radiation oncologists (ROs) are needed to ensure adequate staffing levels.

Methods

We developed a demand model that predicted the future number of ROs required, using national data from the Radiation Oncology Collection (ROC) and a survey of ROs. Radiation therapy intervention and retreatment rates (IR/RTRs), and benign and non‐cancer conditions being treated, were derived from the ROC and applied to Census population projections. Survey data provided definitions of treatment by complexity, time spent in different activities and time available for work. Results were linked to radiation oncology workforce forecasts from a supply model developed by the Ministry of Health.

Results

The demand model showed that 85 ROs would be needed in 2031, if current IR/RTRs were maintained, an increase from 68 in 2021. The supply model predicted a decrease in ROs over time, leaving a significant shortfall. Model parameters could be modified to assess the impact of workforce or practice changes; more ROs would be needed if average working hours reduced or IR/RTRs increased.

Conclusion

Workforce models based on robust data collections are an important tool for workforce planning. The RO demand model presented here combines detailed information on treatment and work activities to provide credible estimates that can be used to inform actions on training, recruitment and retention.

The impact of COVID-19 on lung cancer detection, diagnosis and treatment for Māori in Aotearoa New Zealand

AIM

The purpose of this article is to examine disparities in the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on access to lung cancer diagnosis and access to clinical services between Māori and non-Māori.

METHODS

Using national-level data, we examined age-standardised lung cancer registrations, diagnostic procedures (bronchoscopy) and lung surgeries separately by ethnic group for the years 2018-2020, as well as patterns of stage of diagnosis.

RESULTS

We found a trend toward a reduction in rates of lung cancer registration in Māori (but not non-Māori/non-Pacific) New Zealanders in 2020 compared to 2018 and 2019, but no apparent shift in the distribution of stage at diagnosis. We found a trend toward a reduction in rates of bronchoscopy for both Māori and non-Māori/non-Pacific patients, with the largest reduction observed for Māori. Rates of lung cancer surgery appeared to have reduced for Māori patients, although this was based on a small number of procedures.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed disparities between Māori and non-Māori/non-Pacific patients in lung cancer registration and bronchoscopy as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Eligibility for subcutaneous implantable cardiac defibrillator utilising artificial intelligence and deep learning methods for prolonged screening: where is the cut-off?

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: Private grant(s) and/or Sponsorship. Main funding source(s): Main author is receiving an unrestricted grant by Boston Scientific

Background

S-ICD eligibility is determined by a single surface ECG analysis in which the suitability of an individual’s ECG vector morphology is assessed. A major predictor of eligibility is the T:R ratio. Current screening tools proposes T: R of 1:3 as a cut-off for eligibility. Inappropriate shocks due to T-wave oversensing (TWO) remains an issue despite screening. EFFORTLESS and PRAETORIAN trials reported inappropriate shock rates of 11.4% and 9.7% respectively, most frequently caused by cardiac oversensing.

Purpose

The cut-off T: R of 1:3 currently used incorporates a safety margin to accommodate for ECG signal amplitudes fluctuations without affecting S-ICD sensing. Prolonged screening using our tool accurately measures the T: R fluctuations. However, utilising a T: R of 1:3 for prolonged screening can unnecessarily exclude appropriate S-ICD candidates. The purpose of our study is to provide groundwork for future trials to find the optimal ratio that identifies patients at risk of TWO and inappropriate shocks while not excluding true S-ICD candidates after prolonged screening.

Methods

Patients were fitted with 24-hour Holter monitors with leads placed to correspond to the vectors of an S-ICD. We used our tool to assess T: R over the recordings utilising Phase Space Reconstruction matrices - to convert the ECG signal into compressed pixel images. A Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model was trained to accurately predict the T: R from these images resulting in a T: R variation plot for each vector. We then applied multiple T:R ratio cut-offs on the recordings to identify patients at risk of inappropriate shocks due to TWO at each proposed value. A vector with a T: R above the cut-off for 20 consecutive seconds was deemed to have failed screening, the time determined by the current detection, charge, and redetection time of the current S-ICD system. A patient has to have at least one suitable vector to pass the screening at the selected threshold.

Results

37 patients (mean age 54.5 years,64.8% male) were included. 14 had Heart failure, 7 Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, 7 normal hearts, 6 Adult congenital heart disease and 3 patients who received inappropriate S-ICD shocks due to TWO. Overall, 20 (54%) of patients passed prolonged screening using a 1:3 ratio. All of the patients passed screening with a T: R of 1:1. The only subgroup to wholly pass the screening for all the proposed ratios are the normal hearts group.

Conclusion

We propose adopting prolonged screening to select S-ICD eligible patients with low probability of TWO and inappropriate shocks. However, utilising T: R of 1:3 can unnecessarily exclude otherwise S-ICD eligible patients. The appropriate ratio likely lies between 1:3 - 1:1. Further studies are needed to identify the optimal screening thresholds, particularly in patients that have had inappropriate shocks due to TWO.

The use of artificial intelligence and deep learning methods in subcutaneous implantable cardioverter defibrillator screening to optimise selection in special patient populations

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: Private company. Main funding source(s): Dr.Mohamed ElRefai is receiving an unrestricted grant from Boston Scientific.

Introduction

Adult congenital heart disease (ACHD) and hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) patients who require defibrillator therapy are often relatively young and may require several generator replacements in their lifetime. The increased risk of complications associated with transvenous ICDs make the subcutaneous (S-ICD) a valuable alternative. However, higher S-ICD ineligibility rates (20-40% in ACHD and 7-38% in HCM) and higher inappropriate shock rates (10.5% in ACHD and 12.5% in HCM) are observed in these populations. Unfavourable T:R ratios and dynamic changes in the R and T wave amplitudes are the primarily factors behind ineligibility and inappropriate shocks, which are most commonly caused by T wave over-sensing.

Purpose

We report a novel application of deep learning methods used to autonomously screen patients for S-ICD eligibility over a longer period than conventional screening. We hypothesise that this screening approach might achieve better patient selection and optimise S-ICD vector selection in challenging patient cohorts.

Methods

Adult patients with ACHD or HCM and a control group of normal subjects were fitted with a 24-hour ambulatory ECG with the leads placed to record their S-ICD vectors. T: R ratio throughout the recordings was analysed utilising phase space reconstruction matrices to convert the ECG signal into compressed pixel images. Whilst a convolutional neural network model was trained to provide an in-depth description of the T: R variation plot for each vector T: R variation was compared statistically using a one-way ANOVA test.

Results

20 patients (age 44.1 ±11.68, 60% male, 7 HCM, 6 ACHD and 7 control subjects) were enrolled. A significant difference was observed in the mean and median T: R values between the three groups (p<0.001). There was no difference observed in the standard deviation of T: R between the control subjects and HCM group. However, there was a statistically significant difference in the standard deviation of T: R between the control subjects and the ACHD group (p= 0.01). [see Figure].

Conclusions

T:R ratio, a main determinant for S-ICD eligibility, is significantly higher in ACHD and HCM when compared to normal hearts and it also has more tendency to fluctuate in ACHD patients when compared to HCM and normal hearts populations. We hypothesise that our novel model could be used to select S-ICD eligible patients by better characterisation of T:R ratio reducing the risk of T wave oversensing and inappropriate shocks particularly in the ACHD patients’ cohort.

Correction to: Contract cheating: an increasing challenge for global academic community arising from COVID-19

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1186/s41039-021-00166-8.].

Contract cheating: an increasing challenge for global academic community arising from COVID-19

Due to COVID-19, universities with limited expertise with the digital environment had to rapidly transition to online teaching and assessment. This transition did not create a new problem but has offered more opportunities for contract cheating and diversified the types of such services. While universities and lecturers were adjusting to the new teaching styles and developing new assessment methods, opportunistic contract cheating providers have been offering $50 COVID-19 discounts and students securing the services of commercial online tutors to take their online exams or to take advantage of real-time assistance from 'pros' while sitting examinations. The article contributes to the discourse on contract cheating by reporting on an investigation of the scope and scale of the growing problems related to academic integrity exacerbated by an urgent transition to online assessments during the COVID-19 pandemic. The dark reality is the illegal services are developing at a faster pace than the systems required to curb them, as demonstrated by the results. The all-penetrating issues indicate systemic failures on a global scale that cannot be addressed by an individual academic or university acting alone. Multi-level solutions including academics, universities and the global community are essential. Future research must focus on developing a model of collaboration to address this problem on several levels, taking into account (1) individual academics, (2) universities, (3) countries and (4) international communities.

The Use of Venovenous Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation in COVID-19 Infection: One Region's Comprehensive Experience

Severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) unresponsive to conventional intensive care unit (ICU) management is an accepted indication for venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (V-V ECMO) support. The frequency with which patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia are selected for V-V ECMO has not been described. This was a cohort study including all patients placed on either V-V ECMO or venoarteriovenous ECMO at the four adult ECMO Centers of Excellence. Primary outcomes evaluated were survival to decannulation from the ECMO circuit, survival to discharge, and 60-day survival. Secondary outcomes were hospital length of stay (LOS), ICU LOS, length of ECMO cannulation, and length of intubation. During the study period, which corresponded to the first surge in COVID-19 hospitalizations in Minnesota, 35 patients with ARDS were selected for V-V ECMO support out of 1,849 adult ICU patients with COVID-19 infection in the state (1.9% incidence; 95% CI, 1.3-2.6%). This represents 46 (95% CI, 34-61) expected V-V ECMO patients per 100,000 confirmed positive cases of COVID-19. Twenty-six of the 35 patients (74.3%) supported with V-V ECMO survived to 60-day post-ECMO decannulation. Recent studies have demonstrated ongoing success rescuing patients with severe ARDS in COVID-19 infection. Our data add to the support of ECMO and the consideration for encouraging cooperation among regional ECMO centers to ensure access to this highest level of care. Finally, by evaluating all the patients of a single region, we estimate overall need for this resource intensive intervention based on the overall number of COVID-19 cases and ICU admissions.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer diagnosis and service access in New Zealand-a country pursuing COVID-19 elimination

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted cancer services globally. New Zealand has pursued an elimination strategy to COVID-19, reducing (but not eliminating) this disruption. Early in the pandemic, our national Cancer Control Agency (Te Aho o Te Kahu) began monitoring and reporting on service access to inform national and regional decision-making. In this manuscript we use high-quality, national-level data to describe changes in cancer registrations, diagnosis and treatment over the course of New Zealand's response to COVID-19.

Methods

Data were sourced (2018–2020) from national collections, including cancer registrations, inpatient hospitalisations and outpatient events. Cancer registrations, diagnostic testing (gastrointestinal endoscopy), surgery (colorectal, lung and prostate surgeries), medical oncology access (first specialist appointments [FSAs] and intravenous chemotherapy attendances) and radiation oncology access (FSAs and megavoltage attendances) were extracted. Descriptive analyses of count data were performed, stratified by ethnicity (Indigenous Māori, Pacific Island, non-Māori/non-Pacific).

Findings

Compared to 2018–2019, there was a 40% decline in cancer registrations during New Zealand's national shutdown in March-April 2020, increasing back to pre-shutdown levels over subsequent months. While there was a sharp decline in endoscopies, pre-shutdown volumes were achieved again by August. The impact on cancer surgery and medical oncology has been minimal, but there has been an 8% year-to-date decrease in radiation therapy attendances. With the exception of lung cancer, there is no evidence that existing inequities in service access between ethnic groups have been exacerbated by COVID-19.

Interpretation

The impact of COVID-19 on cancer care in New Zealand has been largely mitigated. The New Zealand experience may provide other agencies or organisations with a sense of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer services within a country that has actively pursued elimination of COVID-19.

Funding

Data were provided by New Zealand's Ministry of Health, and analyses completed by Te Aho o Te Kahu staff.

Blood immune transcriptome analysis of artificially fed dairy calves and naturally suckled beef calves from birth to 7 days of age

Neonatal calves possess a very immature and naïve immune system and are reliant on the intake of maternal colostrum for passive transfer of immunoglobulins. Variation in colostrum management of beef and dairy calves is thought to affect early immune development. Therefore, the objective of this study was to examine changes in gene expression and investigate molecular pathways involved in the immune-competence development of neonatal Holstein dairy calves and naturally suckled beef calves using next generation RNA-sequencing during the first week of life. Jugular whole blood samples were collected from Holstein (H) dairy calves (n = 8) artificially fed 5% B.W. colostrum, and from beef calves which were the progenies of Charolais-Limousin (CL; n = 7) and Limousin-Friesian beef suckler cows (LF; n = 7), for subsequent RNA isolation. In dairy calves, there was a surge in pro-inflammatory cytokine gene expression possibly due to the stress of separation from the dam. LF calves exhibited early signs of humoral immune development with observed increases in the expression genes coding for Ig receptors, which was not evident in the other breeds by 7 days of age. Immune and health related DEGs identified as upregulated in beef calves are prospective contender genes for the classification of biomarkers for immune-competence development, and will contribute towards a greater understanding of the development of an immune response in neonatal calves.

Assigning a structural motif using spontaneous molecular dipole orientation in thin films

Guided by the spontelectric behaviour of thin films of cis-methyl formate, infrared observations and computational investigations reveal the dimer structural motif of the crystalline solid.

Thoughtflow: Standards and Tools for Provenance Capture and Workflow Definition to Support Model-Informed Drug Discovery and Development

Pharmacometric analyses are complex and multifactorial. It is essential to check, track, and document the vast amounts of data and metadata that are generated during these analyses (and the relationships between them) in order to comply with regulations, support quality control, auditing, and reporting. It is, however, challenging, tedious, error-prone, and time-consuming, and diverts pharmacometricians from the more useful business of doing science. Automating this process would save time, reduce transcriptional errors, support the retention and transfer of knowledge, encourage good practice, and help ensure that pharmacometric analyses appropriately impact decisions. The ability to document, communicate, and reconstruct a complete pharmacometric analysis using an open standard would have considerable benefits. In this article, the Innovative Medicines Initiative (IMI) Drug Disease Model Resources (DDMoRe) consortium proposes a set of standards to facilitate the capture, storage, and reporting of knowledge (including assumptions and decisions) in the context of model-informed drug discovery and development (MID3), as well as to support reproducibility: "Thoughtflow." A prototype software implementation is provided.

Evaluation of factors associated with immunoglobulin G, fat, protein, and lactose concentrations in bovine colostrum and colostrum management practices in grassland-based dairy systems in Northern Ireland

The objectives of this study were to investigate colostrum feeding practices and colostrum quality on commercial grassland-based dairy farms, and to identify factors associated with colostrum quality that could help inform the development of colostrum management protocols. Over 1 yr, background information associated with dairy calvings and colostrum management practices were recorded on 21 commercial dairy farms. Colostrum samples (n = 1,239) were analyzed for fat, protein, lactose, and IgG concentration. A subset was analyzed for somatic cell count and total viable bacteria count. Factors associated with nutritional and IgG concentrations were determined using both univariate and multivariate models. This study found that 51% of calves were administered their first feed of colostrum via esophageal tube, and the majority of calves (80%) were fed >2 L of colostrum at their first feed (mean = 2.9 L, SD = 0.79), at a mean time of 3.2 h (SD 4.36) after birth, but this ranged across farms. The mean colostral fat, protein, and lactose percentages and IgG concentrations were 6.4%, 14%, 2.7%, and 55 mg/mL, respectively. The mean somatic cell count and total viable count were 6.3 log₁₀ and 6.1 log₁₀, respectively. Overall, 44% of colostrum samples contained <50 mg/mL IgG, and almost 81% were in excess of industry guidelines (<100,000 cfu/mL) for bacterial contamination. In the multivariate model, IgG concentration was associated with parity and time from parturition to colostrum collection. The nutritional properties of colostrum were associated with parity, prepartum vaccination, season of calving, and dry cow nutrition. The large variation in colostrum quality found in the current study highlights the importance of routine colostrum testing, and now that factors associated with lower-quality colostrum on grassland-based dairy farms have been identified, producers and advisers are better informed and able to develop risk-based colostrum management protocols.

Modulation of platelet membrane function via exogenous lipid moiety exposure alters platelet responsiveness to shear

Shear-induced platelet activation may cause life-threatening thrombosis, particularly in patients with mechanical support devices or coronary atherosclerosis. The majority of present anti-platelet agents target or interfere with biochemical, rather than physical mechanisms of platelet activation. Less data and understanding exists with regard to pharmacologic modulation of shear-mediated platelet activation. In this work, we hypothesized that modulating cell membrane properties, via alteration of membrane composition through addition of exogenous lipid moieties, would alter platelet responsiveness to shear. Here we tested fatty acids, lecithin and cholesterol as additive lipid compounds. We demonstrated that incorporation of fatty acids (DHA/EPA) or lecithin into the platelet membrane triggered enhanced sensitivity of platelets to shear-mediated activation. On the other hand, cholesterol incorporation provides significant protection, limiting the effect of shear on platelet activation. These findings provide valuable insight for the development of therapeutic strategies that can modulate shear-mediated platelet activation.

Bilateral skin fold rotation-advancement flaps for the closure of large lumbosacral wounds in three dogs

Three dogs were presented for the management of disease processes resulting in large skin defects over the dorsal lumbosacral region. One had severe dog bite wounds, one had a large burn sustained from a heating pad and one had a large myxosarcoma in the region. In each case, the extent and location of the resulting skin defect were assessed as factors likely to prevent reconstruction using simple tension-relieving techniques alone or in combination with established reconstructive techniques, such as axial pattern flaps or skin stretching devices. Bilateral skin fold rotation-advancement flaps (SFRAFs) based on the flank folds were mobilised dorsally and allowed complete wound closure in two dogs and subtotal closure in the other dog. All wounds healed without major complications and an acceptable cosmetic outcome was achieved in each case. Minor flap debridement was required in two dogs. The use of bilateral SFRAFs is a useful technique alone or in combination with other reconstructive techniques for the closure of large dorsal lumbosacral skin defects when existing techniques are not sufficient. Small flank folds, such as those of obese dogs, may yield unexpectedly large SFRAFs.

The use of the cemented Exeter Universal femoral stem in a District General Hospital

We describe the survivorship of the Exeter femoral component in a District General Hospital. Between 1994 and 1996, 230 Exeter Universal cemented femoral components were implanted in 215 patients who were reviewed at a mean of 11.2 years (10 to 13). We used one acetabular implant, the Elite Ogee component, in 218 of the 230 hips.

During the period of this study 76 patients (79 hips) died. Of the remaining 139 patients (151 hips), 121 were able to attend for radiological analysis at a minimum of ten years. One patient was lost to follow-up.

No femoral component was revised for aseptic loosening. Three hips were revised for deep infection and six acetabular components required revision, four for loosening and two for recurrent dislocation. Taking the ‘worst-case scenario’ including the one patient lost to follow-up, the overall survival rate was 94.4% at 13 years.

Our results confirm excellent medium-term results for the Exeter Universal femoral component, implanted in a general setting. The excellent survival of this femoral component, when used in combination with the Ogee acetabular component, suggests that this is a successful pairing.

The Role of the Kidney in Blood Volume Regulation: The Kidney as a Regulator of the Hematocrit

The kidney plays a pivotal role in the regulation of blood volume by controlling the plasma volume and red blood cell (RBC) mass. Further, it is proposed that the kidney coordinates the relative volumes of these 2 blood components and in so doing regulates the hematocrit. This novel function as proposed is a functional concept whereby the kidney does not simply produce erythropoietin, but that the kidney regulates the hematocrit is termed the critmeter function. The kidney is unique in that it can indirectly report on blood volume as a tissue oxygen signal. It is proposed that the kidneys detect small changes in tissue oxygen tension for erythropoietin production at the critmeter, a functional unit of marginal oxygen tension within the kidneys. As the production of erythropoietin is modulated by angiotensin II, the renin-angiotensin system entrains the production of erythropoietin as part of the effector signals of the feedback loop of blood volume regulation. Collectively, the consideration of these points generates a paradigm shift in our understanding of blood volume regulation in that the role of the kidney may be expanded from simply "producing" erythropoietin to regulating the hematocrit. Further, this concept broadens the scope of the traditionally identified effector mechanisms of plasma volume regulation to include the modulation of erythropoietin production and hence RBC mass. The inclusion of both plasma volume and RBC mass as factors targeted by the effector signals recapitulates that whole blood volume is sensed and reported in the afferent signals. In summary, distinct sensing and effector mechanisms for regulating the volume of the two components of whole blood (plasma and red cell mass) are recognized. The coupling of the regulation of these 2 components of blood volume is highlighted.

Prevention and treatment of musculoskeletal disease in the haemophilia population: role of prophylaxis and synovectomy

Prophylaxis is defined as primary (started before the onset of joint damage) or secondary (started after the onset of joint damage). The aim of primary prophylaxis is to prevent recurrent bleeding into joints and the development of chronic arthropathy in later life. When started early, and at most after two joint bleeds, the result is predictably excellent if there is compliance with the primary prophylaxis regimen. In order to decrease the need for central venous access devices to assure reliable venous access, a number of centres start primary prophylaxis with once weekly infusions with dose-escalation based on frequency of joint bleeding. A major unanswered question is whether primary prophylaxis can be safely discontinued in adolescents/young adults and if so, when. A promising predictor for the milder bleeding phenotype in persons with severe haemophilia is a later onset of joint bleeding. Once joint damage has occurred as a result of recurrent bleeding, secondary prophylaxis can only retard, but not prevent, ongoing joint damage. Other strategies to decrease recurrent bleeding from target joints include surgical synovectomy (ideally performed using an arthroscopic technique), radionuclide synovectomy and chemical synovectomy. These interventions have very good outcomes when performed by an experienced team. Given the very high cost of factor concentrates required for programmes of prophylaxis prospective studies that document benefits to the child and family, e.g. quality of life are to be encouraged.

Complete genome sequence of Vibrio fischeri: a symbiotic bacterium with pathogenic congeners

Vibrio fischeri belongs to the Vibrionaceae, a large family of marine gamma-proteobacteria that includes several dozen species known to engage in a diversity of beneficial or pathogenic interactions with animal tissue. Among the small number of pathogenic Vibrio species that cause human diseases are Vibrio cholerae, Vibrio parahaemolyticus, and Vibrio vulnificus, the only members of the Vibrionaceae that have had their genome sequences reported. Nonpathogenic members of the genus Vibrio, including a number of beneficial symbionts, make up the majority of the Vibrionaceae, but none of these species has been similarly examined. Here we report the genome sequence of V. fischeri ES114, which enters into a mutualistic symbiosis in the light organ of the bobtail squid, Euprymna scolopes. Analysis of this sequence has revealed surprising parallels with V. cholerae and other pathogens.

Threshold effects of glucose transporter-4 (GLUT4) deficiency on cardiac glucose uptake and development of hypertrophy

The aim of this study was to investigate the metabolic and structural consequences of a decrease in glucose transporter-4 (GLUT4) levels on the heart. The CreLoxP system was utilised to delete GLUT4 in muscle tIssue including heart. The presence of the PGK-neoR cassette in the GLUT4-Lox mice resulted in reduced expression in all tIssues to levels 15-30% of wild-type control mice. In mice expressing Cre recombinase, there was a further reduction of GLUT4 in cardiac tIssue to almost undetectable levels. Cardiac glucose uptake was measured basally and during a euglycaemic/hyperinsulinaemic clamp using 2-deoxy-[1-(14)C]glucose. Insulin-stimulated glucose uptake was normal in hearts expressing 15% of normal GLUT4 levels but markedly reduced in mice with more profound reduction in GLUT4. Cardiac enlargement occurred only when GLUT4 levels were less than 5% of normal values. In heart there is a threshold level of GLUT4 above which insulin-stimulated glucose uptake is maintained. As little as 5% of normal GLUT4 levels expressed in heart is sufficient to prevent the development of cardiac hypertrophy.