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Teo HC, Tan NHL, Zheng Q, Lim AJY, Sreekar R, Chen X, Zhou Y, Sarira TV, De Alban JDT, Tang H, Friess DA, Koh LP. Uncertainties in deforestation emission baseline methodologies and implications for carbon markets. Nat Commun 2023; 14:8277. [PMID: 38092814 PMCID: PMC10719246 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44127-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/26/2023] [Accepted: 11/30/2023] [Indexed: 12/17/2023] Open
Abstract
Carbon credits generated through jurisdictional-scale avoided deforestation projects require accurate estimates of deforestation emission baselines, but there are serious challenges to their robustness. We assessed the variability, accuracy, and uncertainty of baselining methods by applying sensitivity and variable importance analysis on a range of typically-used methods and parameters for 2,794 jurisdictions worldwide. The median jurisdiction's deforestation emission baseline varied by 171% (90% range: 87%-440%) of its mean, with a median forecast error of 0.778 times (90% range: 0.548-3.56) the actual deforestation rate. Moreover, variable importance analysis emphasised the strong influence of the deforestation projection approach. For the median jurisdiction, 68.0% of possible methods (90% range: 61.1%-85.6%) exceeded 15% uncertainty. Tropical and polar biomes exhibited larger uncertainties in carbon estimations. The use of sensitivity analyses, multi-model, and multi-source ensemble approaches could reduce variabilities and biases. These findings provide a roadmap for improving baseline estimations to enhance carbon market integrity and trust.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hoong Chen Teo
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
| | - Nicole Hui Li Tan
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Qiming Zheng
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR
| | - Annabel Jia Yi Lim
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Rachakonda Sreekar
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- School of the Environment, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Xiao Chen
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Yuchuan Zhou
- Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Tasya Vadya Sarira
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
| | - Jose Don T De Alban
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Hao Tang
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Daniel A Friess
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA, USA
| | - Lian Pin Koh
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
- Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
- Tropical Marine Science Institute, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
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