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Teo HC, Tan NHL, Zheng Q, Lim AJY, Sreekar R, Chen X, Zhou Y, Sarira TV, De Alban JDT, Tang H, Friess DA, Koh LP. Uncertainties in deforestation emission baseline methodologies and implications for carbon markets. Nat Commun 2023; 14:8277. [PMID: 38092814 PMCID: PMC10719246 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44127-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/26/2023] [Accepted: 11/30/2023] [Indexed: 12/17/2023] Open
Abstract
Carbon credits generated through jurisdictional-scale avoided deforestation projects require accurate estimates of deforestation emission baselines, but there are serious challenges to their robustness. We assessed the variability, accuracy, and uncertainty of baselining methods by applying sensitivity and variable importance analysis on a range of typically-used methods and parameters for 2,794 jurisdictions worldwide. The median jurisdiction's deforestation emission baseline varied by 171% (90% range: 87%-440%) of its mean, with a median forecast error of 0.778 times (90% range: 0.548-3.56) the actual deforestation rate. Moreover, variable importance analysis emphasised the strong influence of the deforestation projection approach. For the median jurisdiction, 68.0% of possible methods (90% range: 61.1%-85.6%) exceeded 15% uncertainty. Tropical and polar biomes exhibited larger uncertainties in carbon estimations. The use of sensitivity analyses, multi-model, and multi-source ensemble approaches could reduce variabilities and biases. These findings provide a roadmap for improving baseline estimations to enhance carbon market integrity and trust.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hoong Chen Teo
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
| | - Nicole Hui Li Tan
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Qiming Zheng
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR
| | - Annabel Jia Yi Lim
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Rachakonda Sreekar
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- School of the Environment, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Xiao Chen
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Yuchuan Zhou
- Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Tasya Vadya Sarira
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
| | - Jose Don T De Alban
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Hao Tang
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Daniel A Friess
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA, USA
| | - Lian Pin Koh
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
- Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
- Tropical Marine Science Institute, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
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Lamba A, Teo HC, Sreekar R, Zeng Y, Carrasco LR, Koh LP. Climate co-benefits of tiger conservation. Nat Ecol Evol 2023; 7:1104-1113. [PMID: 37231303 PMCID: PMC10333118 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-023-02069-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/21/2022] [Accepted: 04/06/2023] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Biodiversity conservation is increasingly being recognized as an important co-benefit in climate change mitigation programmes that use nature-based climate solutions. However, the climate co-benefits of biodiversity conservation interventions, such as habitat protection and restoration, remain understudied. Here we estimate the forest carbon storage co-benefits of a national policy intervention for tiger (Panthera tigris) conservation in India. We used a synthetic control approach to model avoided forest loss and associated carbon emissions reductions in protected areas that underwent enhanced protection for tiger conservation. Over a third of the analysed reserves showed significant but mixed effects, where 24% of all reserves successfully reduced the rate of deforestation and the remaining 9% reported higher-than-expected forest loss. The policy had a net positive benefit with over 5,802 hectares of averted forest loss, corresponding to avoided emissions of 1.08 ± 0.51 MtCO2 equivalent between 2007 and 2020. This translated to US$92.55 ± 43.56 million in ecosystem services from the avoided social cost of emissions and potential revenue of US$6.24 ± 2.94 million in carbon offsets. Our findings offer an approach to quantitatively track the carbon sequestration co-benefits of a species conservation strategy and thus help align the objectives of climate action and biodiversity conservation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aakash Lamba
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
| | - Hoong Chen Teo
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Rachakonda Sreekar
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Yiwen Zeng
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
- Tropical Marine Science Institute, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Luis Roman Carrasco
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Lian Pin Koh
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
- Tropical Marine Science Institute, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
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Teo HC, Raghavan SV, He X, Zeng Z, Cheng Y, Luo X, Lechner AM, Ashfold MJ, Lamba A, Sreekar R, Zheng Q, Chen A, Koh LP. Large-scale reforestation can increase water yield and reduce drought risk for water-insecure regions in the Asia-Pacific. Glob Chang Biol 2022; 28:6385-6403. [PMID: 36054815 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16404] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/25/2022] [Accepted: 08/18/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Large-scale reforestation can potentially bring both benefits and risks to the water cycle, which needs to be better quantified under future climates to inform reforestation decisions. We identified 477 water-insecure basins worldwide accounting for 44.6% (380.2 Mha) of the global reforestation potential. As many of these basins are in the Asia-Pacific, we used regional coupled land-climate modeling for the period 2041-2070 to reveal that reforestation increases evapotranspiration and precipitation for most water-insecure regions over the Asia-Pacific. This resulted in a statistically significant increase in water yield (p < .05) for the Loess Plateau-North China Plain, Yangtze Plain, Southeast China, and Irrawaddy regions. Precipitation feedback was influenced by the degree of initial moisture limitation affecting soil moisture response and thus evapotranspiration, as well as precipitation advection from other reforested regions and moisture transport away from the local region. Reforestation also reduces the probability of extremely dry months in most of the water-insecure regions. However, some regions experience nonsignificant declines in net water yield due to heightened evapotranspiration outstripping increases in precipitation, or declines in soil moisture and advected precipitation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hoong Chen Teo
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Srivatsan V Raghavan
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Tropical Marine Science Institute, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Xiaogang He
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Zhenzhong Zeng
- School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China
| | - Yanyan Cheng
- Department of Industrial Systems Engineering & Management, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Xiangzhong Luo
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Alex M Lechner
- Urban Transformations Hub, Monash University Indonesia, Tangerang Selatan, Indonesia
| | - Matthew J Ashfold
- School of Environmental and Geographical Sciences, University of Nottingham Malaysia, Semenyih, Malaysia
| | - Aakash Lamba
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Rachakonda Sreekar
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Qiming Zheng
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Anping Chen
- Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | - Lian Pin Koh
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Tropical Marine Science Institute, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
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Zheng Q, Siman K, Zeng Y, Teo HC, Sarira TV, Sreekar R, Koh LP. Future land-use competition constrains natural climate solutions. Sci Total Environ 2022; 838:156409. [PMID: 35660585 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.156409] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/30/2022] [Revised: 05/28/2022] [Accepted: 05/29/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Natural climate solutions (NCS) are an essential complement to climate mitigation and have been increasingly incorporated into international mitigation strategies. Yet, with the ongoing population growth, allocating natural areas for NCS may compete with other socioeconomic priorities, especially urban development and food security. Here, we projected the impacts of land-use competition incurred by cropland and urban expansion on the climate mitigation potential of NCS. We mapped the areas available for implementing 9 key NCS strategies and estimated their climate change mitigation potential. Then, we overlaid these areas with future cropland and urban expansion maps projected under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (2020-2100) and calculated the resulting mitigation potential loss of each selected NCS strategy. Our results estimate a substantial reduction, 0.3-2.8 GtCO2 yr-1 or 4-39 %, in NCS mitigation potential, of which cropland expansion for fulfilling future food demand is the primary cause. This impact is particularly severe in the tropics where NCS hold the most abundant mitigation potential. Our findings highlight immediate actions prioritized to tropical areas are important to best realize NCS and are key to developing realistic and sustainable climate policies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qiming Zheng
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, 6 Science Drive 2, 117546, Singapore.
| | - Kelly Siman
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, 6 Science Drive 2, 117546, Singapore
| | - Yiwen Zeng
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, 6 Science Drive 2, 117546, Singapore
| | - Hoong Chen Teo
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, 6 Science Drive 2, 117546, Singapore
| | - Tasya Vadya Sarira
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, 6 Science Drive 2, 117546, Singapore
| | - Rachakonda Sreekar
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, 6 Science Drive 2, 117546, Singapore
| | - Lian Pin Koh
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, 6 Science Drive 2, 117546, Singapore
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Teo HC, Campos-Arceiz A, Li BV, Wu M, Lechner AM. Building a green Belt and Road: A systematic review and comparative assessment of the Chinese and English-language literature. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0239009. [PMID: 32932516 PMCID: PMC7492099 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0239009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2020] [Accepted: 08/27/2020] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
International attention on the environmental impacts of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is increasing, but little is known internationally about the large corpus of Chinese BRI environmental research. We present the first systematic review of the Chinese and English-language BRI environmental research, supported with text mining and sentiment analysis. We found that the research is dominated by Chinese authors writing about BRI routes within China in Chinese, even though concerns around BRI are largely about impacts and benefits within host countries, and the volume of publications in English is recently catching up. Different disciplines and methods are well-represented across languages, apart from specific types of Chinese social science papers. The sentiments of academic research are largely neutral and less polarised than media discourse. We recommend that scientists and practitioners should pay more attention to BRI environmental impacts in developing countries and proactively engage local voices.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hoong Chen Teo
- School of Environmental and Geographical Sciences, University of Nottingham Malaysia, Semenyih, Selangor, Malaysia
| | - Ahimsa Campos-Arceiz
- School of Environmental and Geographical Sciences, University of Nottingham Malaysia, Semenyih, Selangor, Malaysia
- Southeast Asia Biodiversity Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yezin, Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar
- Center for Integrative Conservation, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Menglun, Yunnan, China
- * E-mail:
| | - Binbin V. Li
- Environmental Research Center, Duke Kunshan University, Kunshan, Jiangsu, China
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States of America
| | - Mingquan Wu
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Alex Mark Lechner
- School of Environmental and Geographical Sciences, University of Nottingham Malaysia, Semenyih, Selangor, Malaysia
- Centre for Water and Planetary Health, School of Geography, University of Lincoln, Lincoln, United Kingdom
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