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van de Wal RSW, Nicholls RJ, Behar D, McInnes K, Stammer D, Lowe JA, Church JA, DeConto R, Fettweis X, Goelzer H, Haasnoot M, Haigh ID, Hinkel J, Horton BP, James TS, Jenkins A, LeCozannet G, Levermann A, Lipscomb WH, Marzeion B, Pattyn F, Payne AJ, Pfeffer WT, Price SF, Seroussi H, Sun S, Veatch W, White K. A High-End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners. Earths Future 2022; 10:e2022EF002751. [PMID: 36590252 PMCID: PMC9787942 DOI: 10.1029/2022ef002751] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2022] [Revised: 09/23/2022] [Accepted: 10/03/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
Sea level rise (SLR) is a long-lasting consequence of climate change because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to equilibrate for the deep ocean and ice sheets. SLR projections based on climate models support policy analysis, risk assessment and adaptation planning today, despite their large uncertainties. The central range of the SLR distribution is estimated by process-based models. However, risk-averse practitioners often require information about plausible future conditions that lie in the tails of the SLR distribution, which are poorly defined by existing models. Here, a community effort combining scientists and practitioners builds on a framework of discussing physical evidence to quantify high-end global SLR for practitioners. The approach is complementary to the IPCC AR6 report and provides further physically plausible high-end scenarios. High-end estimates for the different SLR components are developed for two climate scenarios at two timescales. For global warming of +2°C in 2100 (RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6) relative to pre-industrial values our high-end global SLR estimates are up to 0.9 m in 2100 and 2.5 m in 2300. Similarly, for a (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5), we estimate up to 1.6 m in 2100 and up to 10.4 m in 2300. The large and growing differences between the scenarios beyond 2100 emphasize the long-term benefits of mitigation. However, even a modest 2°C warming may cause multi-meter SLR on centennial time scales with profound consequences for coastal areas. Earlier high-end assessments focused on instability mechanisms in Antarctica, while here we emphasize the importance of the timing of ice shelf collapse around Antarctica. This is highly uncertain due to low understanding of the driving processes. Hence both process understanding and emission scenario control high-end SLR.
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Affiliation(s)
- R. S. W. van de Wal
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research UtrechtUtrecht UniversityTA UtrechtThe Netherlands
- Department of Physical GeographyUtrecht UniversityTA UtrechtThe Netherlands
| | - R. J. Nicholls
- Tyndall Centre for Climate Change ResearchUniversity of East AngliaNorwichUK
| | - D. Behar
- San Francisco Public Utilities CommissionSan FranciscoCAUSA
| | - K. McInnes
- Climate Change Research CentreUNSW AustraliaSydneyNSWAustralia
| | - D. Stammer
- Centrum für Erdsystemforschung und NachhaltigkeitUniversität HamburgHamburgGermany
| | - J. A. Lowe
- Met Office Hadley CentreExeterUK
- Priestley CentreUniversity of LeedsLeedsUK
| | - J. A. Church
- Climate Change Research CentreUNSW AustraliaSydneyNSWAustralia
- Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science (ACEAS)University of TasmaniaHobartTASAustralia
| | - R. DeConto
- Department of GeosciencesUniversity of Massachusetts‐AmherstAmherstMAUSA
| | - X. Fettweis
- Department of GeographySPHERES Research UnitUniversity of LiègeLiègeBelgium
| | - H. Goelzer
- NORCE Norwegian Research CentreBjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergenNorway
| | | | - I. D. Haigh
- School of Ocean and Earth ScienceUniversity of SouthamptonNational Oceanography CentreSouthamptonUK
| | - J. Hinkel
- Adaptation and Social LearningGlobal Climate ForumBerlinGermany
| | - B. P. Horton
- Earth Observatory of SingaporeNanyang Technological UniversitySingaporeSingapore
- Asian School of the EnvironmentNanyang Technological UniversitySingaporeSingapore
| | - T. S. James
- Natural Resources CanadaGeological Survey of CanadaSidneyBCCanada
| | - A. Jenkins
- Department of Geography and Environmental SciencesNorthumbria UniversityNewcastle upon TyneUK
| | - G. LeCozannet
- Coastal Risks and Climate Change UnitRisks and Prevention DivisionBRGMOrléansFrance
| | - A. Levermann
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchPotsdamGermany
- LDEOColumbia UniversityNew YorkNYUSA
- Physics InstituteUniversity of PotsdamPotsdamGermany
| | - W. H. Lipscomb
- Climate and Global Dynamics LaboratoryNational Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulderCOUSA
| | - B. Marzeion
- Institute of Geography and MARUM ‐ Center for Marine Environmental SciencesUniversity of BremenBremenGermany
| | - F. Pattyn
- Laboratoire de GlaciologieUniversité libre de BruxellesBrusselsBelgium
| | - A. J. Payne
- School of Geographical SciencesUniversity of BristolBristolUK
| | - W. T. Pfeffer
- INSTAAR and Department of Civil, Environmental, Architectural EngineeringUniversity of ColoradoBoulderCOUSA
| | - S. F. Price
- Theoretical DivisionLos Alamos National LaboratoryLos AlamosNMUSA
| | - H. Seroussi
- Thayer School of EngineeringDartmouth CollegeHanoverNHUSA
| | - S. Sun
- Coastal Risks and Climate Change UnitRisks and Prevention DivisionBRGMOrléansFrance
| | - W. Veatch
- US Army Corps of Engineers, HeadquartersWashingtonDCUSA
| | - K. White
- US Department of DefenseOffice of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (Environment and Energy Resilience)DCWashingtonUSA
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Abstract
Ocean data assimilation brings together observations with known dynamics encapsulated in a circulation model to describe the time-varying ocean circulation. Its applications are manifold, ranging from marine and ecosystem forecasting to climate prediction and studies of the carbon cycle. Here, we address only climate applications, which range from improving our understanding of ocean circulation to estimating initial or boundary conditions and model parameters for ocean and climate forecasts. Because of differences in underlying methodologies, data assimilation products must be used judiciously and selected according to the specific purpose, as not all related inferences would be equally reliable. Further advances are expected from improved models and methods for estimating and representing error information in data assimilation systems. Ultimately, data assimilation into coupled climate system components is needed to support ocean and climate services. However, maintaining the infrastructure and expertise for sustained data assimilation remains challenging.
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Affiliation(s)
- D Stammer
- Centrum für Erdsystemforschung und Nachhaltigkeit (CEN), Universität Hamburg, 20148 Hamburg, Germany;
| | - M Balmaseda
- European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, RG2 9AX Reading, United Kingdom
| | - P Heimbach
- Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences and Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas 78712
- Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139
| | - A Köhl
- Centrum für Erdsystemforschung und Nachhaltigkeit (CEN), Universität Hamburg, 20148 Hamburg, Germany;
| | - A Weaver
- Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique (CERFACS), SUC URA, CNRS 1875, 31100 Toulouse, France
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Church JA, Clark PU, Cazenave A, Gregory JM, Jevrejeva S, Levermann A, Merrifield MA, Milne GA, Nerem RS, Nunn PD, Payne AJ, Pfeffer WT, Stammer D, Unnikrishnan AS. Sea-Level Rise by 2100. Science 2013; 342:1445. [DOI: 10.1126/science.342.6165.1445-a] [Citation(s) in RCA: 123] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
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Affiliation(s)
- D. Stammer
- Zentrum für Meeres‐ und Klimaforschung, Institut für Meereskunde University of Hamburg Hamburg Germany
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Martínez Avellaneda N, Serra N, Minnett PJ, Stammer D. Response of the eastern subtropical Atlantic SST to Saharan dust: A modeling and observational study. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2009jc005692] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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Zedler SE, Niiler PP, Stammer D, Terrill E, Morzel J. Ocean's response to Hurricane Frances and its implications for drag coefficient parameterization at high wind speeds. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2009. [DOI: 10.1029/2008jc005205] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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Menemenlis D, Hill C, Adcrocft A, Campin JM, Cheng B, Ciotti B, Fukumori I, Heimbach P, Henze C, Köhl A, Lee T, Stammer D, Taft J, Zhang J. NASA supercomputer improves prospects for ocean climate research. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2005. [DOI: 10.1029/2005eo090002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 101] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Stammer D. Volume, heat, and freshwater transports of the global ocean circulation 1993–2000, estimated from a general circulation model constrained by World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) data. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2003. [DOI: 10.1029/2001jc001115] [Citation(s) in RCA: 120] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Shum CK, Woodworth PL, Andersen OB, Egbert GD, Francis O, King C, Klosko SM, Le Provost C, Li X, Molines JM, Parke ME, Ray RD, Schlax MG, Stammer D, Tierney CC, Vincent P, Wunsch CI. Accuracy assessment of recent ocean tide models. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 1997. [DOI: 10.1029/97jc00445] [Citation(s) in RCA: 218] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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Willebrand J, Käse RH, Stammer D, Hinrichsen HH, Krauss W. Verification of Geosat sea surface topography in the Gulf Stream extension with surface drifting buoys and hydrographic measurements. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 1990. [DOI: 10.1029/jc095ic03p03007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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