Development and validation of a prediction score to assess the risk of depression in primary care

BACKGROUND

Major depression is the most frequent psychiatric disorder and primary care is a crucial setting for its early recognition. This study aimed to develop and validate the DEP-HScore as a tool to predict depression risk in primary care and increase awareness and investigation of this condition among General Practitioners (GPs).

METHODS

The DEP-HScore was developed using data from the Italian Health Search Database (HSD). A cohort of 903,748 patients aged 18 years or older was selected and followed until the occurrence of depression, death or end of data availability (December 2019). Demographics, somatic signs/symptoms and psychiatric/medical comorbidities were entered in a multivariate Cox regression to predict the occurrence of depression. The coefficients formed the DEP-HScore for individual patients. Explained variance (pseudo-R2), discrimination (AUC) and calibration (slope estimating predicted-observed risk relationship) assessed the prediction accuracy.

RESULTS

The DEP-HScore explained 18.1 % of the variation in occurrence of depression and the discrimination value was equal to 67 %. With an event horizon of three months, the slope and intercept were not significantly different from the ideal calibration.

LIMITATIONS

The DEP-HScore has not been tested in other settings. Furthermore, the model was characterized by limited calibration performance when the risk of depression was estimated at the 1-year follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

The DEP-HScore is reliable tool that could be implemented in primary care settings to evaluate the risk of depression, thus enabling prompt and suitable investigations to verify the presence of this condition.

Temporal validation of a Generalized Additive2 Model (GA2M) to assess the risk of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD)

OBJECTIVE

To assess the temporal validity of a model predicting the risk of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) using Generalized Additive2 Models (GA2M).

MATERIALS

We adopted the Italian Health Search Database (HSD) with which the original algorithm was developed and validated by comparing different machine learnings models.

METHODS

We selected all patients aged >=15 being active in HSD in 2019. They were followed up until December 2022 so being updated with three years of data collection. Those with prior diagnosis of CKD were excluded. A GA2M-based algorithm for CKD prediction was applied to this cohort in order to compare observed and predicted risk. Area Under Curve (AUC) and Average Precision (AP) were calculated.

RESULTS

We obtained an AUC and AP equal to 88% and 30%, respectively.

DISCUSSION

The prediction accuracy of the algorithm was largely consistent with that obtained in our prior work which was based on a different time-window for data collection. We therefore underlined and demonstrated the relevance of temporal validation for this prediction tool.

CONCLUSION

The GA2M confirmed its high accuracy in prediction of CKD. As such, the respective patient- and population-based informatic tools might be implemented in primary care.

The burden of recurrent respiratory tract infections in adult population: a population-based study in primary care

BACKGROUND

Viral infections are the main original cause of recurrent respiratory tract infections (RRTIs), but their complications and recurrences are due to bacteria as well. While some operational definitions and epidemiology of RRTIs are reported in paediatrics, no similar definitions have been proposed for adults.

AIM

To assess the epidemiology and characteristics of RRTIs in the adult population.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Cohort study in the primary care setting.

METHODS

Using the Health Search Database, we selected a cohort of patients aged 18 years or older between 2002 and 2022. Yearly, we counted upper and lower respiratory tract infections (RTIs) per patient. We investigated 2 cut-offs defining RRTIs, nominally 3+ RRTIs/patient/year or greater than the mean value of RTIs/patient/year. The associations between these two event definitions and the correlates defining the patients' vulnerability were assessed by estimating a logistic regression model.

RESULTS

Over the study years, the mean number of RTIs/patient/year ranged from 0.07-0.16 or 1.10-1.13 events, when the denominator was formed by the overall population or those diagnosed with RTIs, respectively. When the analysis was focussed on 2022, we obtained 0.2% (1.3% among those with RTIs) or 13% (11.3% among those with RTIs) cases of RRTIs, using a cut-off of 3+ or >=0.16 events (mean value/patient), respectively. Consistent associations were found for these two operational definitions and the investigated clinical correlates.

CONCLUSION

We provided evidence on the epidemiology and concurrent/predisposing factors of RRTIs in adults. These data should support health authorities and general practitioners for the application of the most appropriate preventive and/or treatment strategies.

Second running title: Prediction of COPD-related exacerbations

BACKGROUND

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is the fourth most important cause of death in high-income countries. Inappropriate use of COPD inhaled therapy, including the low adherence (only 10% to 40% of patients reporting an adequate compliance) may shrink or even nullify the proven benefits of these medications. As such, an accurate prediction algorithm to assess at national level the risk of COPD exacerbation might be relevant for general practictioners (GPs) to improve patient's therapy.

METHODS

We formed a cohort of patients aged 45 years or older being diagnosed with COPD in the period between January 2013 to December 2021. Each patient was followed until occurrence of COPD exacerbation up to the end of 2021. Sixteen determinants were adopted to assemble the CopdEX(CEX)-Health Search(HS)core, which was therefore developed and validated though the related two sub-cohorts.

RESULTS

We idenfied 63763 patients aged 45 years or older being diagnosed with COPD (mean age: 67.8 (SD:11.7); 57.7% males).When the risk of COPD exacerbation was estimated via CEX-HScore, its predicted value was equal to 14.22% over a 6-month event horizon. Discrimination accuracy and explained variation were equal to 66% (95% CI: 65-67%) and 10% (95% CI: 9-11%), respectively. The calibration slope did not significantly differ from the unit (p=0.514).

CONCLUSIONS

The CEX-HScore was featured by fair accuracy for prediction of COPD-related exacerbations over a 6-month follow-up. Such a tool might therefore support GPs to enhance COPD patients' care, and improve their outcomes by facilitating personalized approaches through a score-based decision support system.

Time-varying association between herpes zoster infection and subsequent occurrence of stroke

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to investigate the shape of the time-varying relationship between herpes zoster infection, nominally shingles, and the occurrence of stroke.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

METHODS

Using the Italian Health Search Database, a cohort of patients aged ≥18 years who were registered between 2002 and 2021 was selected. In this cohort, a nested case-control analysis was used to model the time-varying distance (in months) between the dates of shingles and post-herpetic stroke, using a regression cubic spline, based on the odds of the occurrence of stroke compared with those without shingles.

RESULTS

The dataset comprised 42,513 cases (51.1% males; mean age [stanndard deviation {SD}]: 71.0 [11.8] years) and 425,124 related controls (51.1% males; mean age [SD]: 70.9 [12] years). In the first 12 months following shingles diagnosis, a rapid increase in the risk of stroke was observed, reaching an odds ratio of 1.31 (95% confidence interval: 1.21-1.41); subsequently, there was some risk reduction and a new symmetric increase within the first 4.2 years of follow-up, thus shaping a bimodal distribution. Then, a new increase in the stroke risk was reported, although less steep, which was followed by a regular risk reduction (still 10% higher compared with those without shingles), resulting in a right-skewed relationship between the time from the shingles diagnosis and the occurrence of stroke. This association was no longer statistically significant 13.1 years after shingles diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated that the risk of post-herpetic stroke has a short- and long-term association according to a risk continuum relationship. These findings confirm the relevance of vaccination coverage for herpes zoster.

A Vulnerability Index to Assess the Risk of SARS-CoV-2-Related Hospitalization/Death: Urgent Need for an Update after Diffusion of Anti-COVID Vaccines

Background: There are algorithms to predict the risk of SARS-CoV-2-related complications. Given the spread of anti-COVID vaccination, which sensibly modified the burden of risk of the infection, these tools need to be re-calibrated. Therefore, we updated our vulnerability index, namely, the Health Search (HS)-CoVulnerabiltyIndex (VI)d (HS-CoVId), to predict the risk of SARS-CoV-2-related hospitalization/death in the primary care setting. Methods: We formed a cohort of individuals aged ≥15 years and diagnosed with COVID-19 between 1 January and 31 December 2021 in the HSD. The date of COVID-19 diagnosis was the study index date. These patients were eligible if they had received an anti-COVID vaccine at least 15 days before the index date. Patients were followed up from the index date until one of the following events, whichever came first: COVID-19-related hospitalization/death (event date), end of registration with their GPs, and end of the study period (31 December 2022). To calculate the incidence rate of COVID-19-related hospitalization/death, a patient-specific score was derived through linear combination of the coefficients stemming from a multivariate Cox regression model. Its prediction performance was evaluated by obtaining explained variation, discrimination, and calibration measures. Results: We identified 2192 patients who had received an anti-COVID vaccine from 1 January to 31 December 2021. With this cohort, we re-calibrated the HS-CoVId by calculating optimism-corrected pseudo-R2, AUC, and calibration slope. The final model reported a good predictive performance by explaining 58% (95% CI: 48-71%) of variation in the occurrence of hospitalizations/deaths, the AUC was 83 (95% CI: 77-93%), and the calibration slope did not reject the equivalence hypothesis (p-value = 0.904). Conclusions: Two versions of HS-CoVId need to be differentially adopted to assess the risk of COVID-19-related complications among vaccinated and unvaccinated subjects. Therefore, this functionality should be operationalized in related patient- and population-based informatic tools intended for general practitioners.

Examining the effectiveness and duration of adjuvanted vs. non-adjuvanted influenza vaccines in protecting older adults against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection

Annual influenza vaccination is one of the main public health measures able to drastically reduce the burden of this infectious disease. Some evidence suggests 'trained immunity' triggered by influenza vaccine might reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Adjuvanted influenza vaccines are known to induce a broader cross-reactive immunity. No studies investigated the effect of adjuvanted vs. non-adjuvanted influenza vaccines on the risk of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. A case-control analysis nested in a cohort of subjects aged ≥65 years and immunized with adjuvanted or non-adjuvanted influenza vaccines was conducted. Although no statistically significant (OR = 0.87; P = .082) difference between the two vaccine types was observed for the 9-month follow-up period, a 17% (OR = 0.83; P = .042) reduction in the odds of COVID-19 was observed for adjuvanted vaccines with a 6-month follow-up. Further evidence is needed, but these results might have implications given the complexity of the upcoming winter seasons, in which the co-occurrence of influenza, SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory infections (e.g., syncytial virus) might be unpredictable.

To retrieve values of albuminuria to define the size of CKD patients eligible to SGLT-2Is: An explorative analysis using a primary care database

PURPOSE

To address missingness of albuminuria values, which establish the eligibility to SGLT-2Is for patients with CKD, using the multiple imputation (MI) method.

METHODS

We selected patients aged 18 or older and diagnosed with CKD in a primary care database. Those with severe CKD and/or previously treated with SGLT-2Is were excluded. Then, we collected all available information on albuminuria within 90 days the measure of GFR. A value of albumin-creatinine ratio (ACR) ranging 200-5000 mg/g or otherwise was the response variable on which we ran MI. Using logistic regression, odds ratios (OR) and related 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated for each covariate toward the response variable for both full and imputed dataset.

RESULTS

The determinants showed consistent estimates between the full and imputed datasets as demonstrated by the overlaps of the CIs and the similar point estimates. As expected, there were some exceptions, such as diabetes (OR of 1.2 vs. 0.5) and use of diabetic medications (OR of 1.0 vs. 2.1) and/or statins (OR of 1.1 vs. 1.8).

CONCLUSIONS

Besides being a reminder for GPs to prescribe and register albuminuria in certain patients' categories, these determinants might be translated into an operational algorithm to input ACR values in administrative data sources. Scenarios for the reimbursement criteria regulating SGLT-2Is to treat CKD would be therefore simulated on more inferable estimates.

Time lapses between distribution of influenza vaccines to health authorities and their administration by General Practitioners (GPs) to older adults: a retrospective study over five influenza seasons in Italy

BACKGROUND

Delays in influenza vaccine delivery and administration can hinder vaccine coverage and protection. This study examines the differentials in distributing and administering adjuvanted trivalent (aTIV) and quadrivalent influenza vaccines (aQIV) to older adults in Italy's primary care setting and its potential impact on hospitalization risk over 5 epidemic seasons.

METHODS

Using a primary care database, individuals aged ≥ 65 years were selected. The proportion of vaccine distribution to regional authorities and subsequent administration by GPs was estimated using census data. Using quantile (median) regression, we examined the relationship between velocities of vaccine distribution and administration (doses/week) and the incidence of hospitalizations.

RESULTS

Over the 5 influenza seasons, the velocity of distribution and administration of aTIV/aQIV ranged 341-833 and 152-270 median doses/week; no trend was yielded for the difference between these velocities (p = 0.189) or vaccine coverage (p = 0.142). An association was observed for each differential dose/week between distributed and administered vaccines and all-cause hospitalizations with a 10% increase in 2017-2018, 54% in 2018-2019, and 12% in 2020-2021 season.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings highlight the importance of minimizing the time lapse between vaccine distribution and administration to mitigate the impact of influenza and address factors that contribute to vaccination barriers.

To support the use of NT-proBNP to better detect heart failure in patients with type 2 diabetes

PURPOSE

Heart failure (HF) is a chronic disease that causes approximately 300,000 and 250,000 deaths per year in Europe and United States, respectively. Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) is one the major risk factors of HF, and the investigation of NT-proBNP might support the early identification of HF in T2DM sufferers. Nevertheless, this parameter is poorly investigated. Thus, we aimed to demographically and clinically characterize diabetic patients which were prescribed with NT-proBNP in the primary care setting.

METHODS

Using a primary care database, we formed a cohort of patients aged ≥18 years diagnosed with T2DM between 2002 and 2021. A multivariate Cox model was adopted to assess the determinants associated with the prescription of NT-proBNP.

RESULTS

Among 167,961 T2DM patients, 7558 (4.5%, 95% CI: 4.4-4.6) were prescribed with NT-proBNP. Males and increasing age were expectedly associated with a higher propensity to be prescribed with NT-proBNP. In addition, a significant association was found for those suffering from obesity, ischemic cardiomyopathy, stroke, atrial fibrillation, hypertension, and with a Charlson Index of 2+.

CONCLUSION

These determinants might contribute to investigate the NT-proBNP in T2DM sufferers. A decision support system to appropriately ease the prescription of NT-proBNP might be therefore implemented in primary care settings.

Drug utilization analysis of osteoporosis medications in seven European electronic health databases

We studied the characteristics of patients prescribed osteoporosis medication and patterns of use in European databases. Patients were mostly female, older, had hypertension. There was suboptimal persistence particularly for oral medications. Our findings would be useful to healthcare providers to focus their resources on improving persistence to specific osteoporosis treatments.

PURPOSE

To characterise the patients prescribed osteoporosis therapy and describe the drug utilization patterns.

METHODS

We investigated the treatment patterns of bisphosphonates, denosumab, teriparatide, and selective estrogen receptor modulators (SERMs) in seven European databases in the United Kingdom, Italy, the Netherlands, Denmark, Spain, and Germany. In this cohort study, we included adults aged ≥ 18 years, with ≥ 1 year of registration in the respective databases, who were new users of the osteoporosis medications. The study period was between 01 January 2018 to 31 January 2022.

RESULTS

Overall, patients were most commonly initiated on alendronate. Persistence decreased over time across all medications and databases, ranging from 52-73% at 6 months to 29-53% at 12 months for alendronate. For other oral bisphosphonates, the proportion of persistent users was 50-66% at 6 months and decreased to 30-44% at 12 months. For SERMs, the proportion of persistent users at 6 months was 40-73% and decreased to 25-59% at 12 months. For parenteral treatment groups, the proportions of persistence with denosumab were 50-85% (6 month), 30-63% (12 month) and with teriparatide 40-75% (6 month) decreasing to 21-54% (12 month). Switching occurred most frequently in the alendronate group (2.8-5.8%) and in the teriparatide group (7.1-14%). Switching typically occurred in the first 6 months and decreased over time. Patients in the alendronate group most often switched to other oral or intravenous bisphosphonates and denosumab.

CONCLUSION

Our results show suboptimal persistence to medications that varied across different databases and treatment switching was relatively rare.

A methodology to assess the population size and estimate the needed resources for new licensed medications by combining clinical and administrative databases: The example of glycated haemoglobin in type 2 diabetes

PURPOSE

To develop and validate a model to estimate glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) values in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) using a clinical data source, with the aim to apply this equation to administrative databases.

METHODS

Using a primary care and administrative Italian databases, namely the Health Search database (HSD) and the ReS (Ricerca e Salute) database, we selected all patients aged 18 years or older on 31 December 2018 being diagnosed with T2DM and without prior prescription of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitors. We included patients prescribed with and adherent to metformin. HSD was used to develop and test (using 2019 data as well) the algorithm imputing HbA1c values ≥7% according to a series of covariates. The algorithm was gathered by combining beta-coefficients being estimated by logistic regression models using complete case (excluding missing values) and imputed (after multiple imputation) dataset. The final algorithm was applied to ReS database using the same covariates.

RESULTS

The tested algorithms were able to explain 17%-18% variation in assessing HbA1c values. Good discrimination (70%) and calibration were obtained as well. The best algorithm (three) cut-offs, namely those providing correct classifications ranging 66%-70% was therefore calculated and applied to ReS database. By doing so, from 52 999 (27.9, 95% CI: 27.7%-28.1%) to 74 250 (40.1%, 95% CI: 38.9%-39.3%) patients were estimated with HbA1c ≥7%.

CONCLUSION

Through this methodology, healthcare authorities should be able to quantify the population eligible to a new licensed medication, such as SGLT-2 inhibitors, and to simulate scenarios to assess reimbursement criteria according to precise estimates.

Epidemiology of pediatric psoriasis: a population-based study using two Italian data sources

BACKGROUND

Psoriasis can be associated with certain comorbidities. This information is important for family pediatricians (FPs) and general practitioners (GPs) who have a key role in the identification and management of skin diseases. This study aimed to assess the incidence and prevalence rates of pediatrics psoriasis and its association with specific comorbidities.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was performed in patients aged less than 18 years registered in two Italian primary care databases (Pedianet and HSD) between 2015 and 2019. Prevalence and incidence of psoriasis were estimated, and a case-control design was adopted to assess specific comorbidities in psoriasis patients.

RESULTS

The annual prevalence rate of psoriasis was 0.2% in Pedianet and between 0.5% and 0.7% in HSD. The incidence rate ranged from 0.47 to 0.58 and from 1.3 to 1.77 per 1000 person-years in Pedianet and HSD, respectively. Allergic rhinitis, asthma, celiac disease, other malabsorption disease and non-infective cutaneous diseases showed a statistically significant association with psoriasis in Pedianet, while no statistically significant difference was found in HSD.

CONCLUSION

Given the FP-GP transition of patients, there is a need for accurate registration of clinical correlates, enabling GPs to implement strategies to minimize the lifetime risk of psoriatic progression.

To predict the risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) using Generalized Additive2 Models (GA2M)

OBJECTIVE

To train and test a model predicting chronic kidney disease (CKD) using the Generalized Additive2 Model (GA2M), and compare it with other models being obtained with traditional or machine learning approaches.

MATERIALS

We adopted the Health Search Database (HSD) which is a representative longitudinal database containing electronic healthcare records of approximately 2 million adults.

METHODS

We selected all patients aged 15 years or older being active in HSD between January 1, 2018 and December 31, 2020 with no prior diagnosis of CKD. The following models were trained and tested using 20 candidate determinants for incident CKD: logistic regression, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Machines (GBMs), GAM, and GA2M. Their prediction performances were compared by calculating Area Under Curve (AUC) and Average Precision (AP).

RESULTS

Comparing the predictive performances of the 7 models, the AUC and AP for GBM and GA2M showed the highest values which were equal to 88.9%, 88.8% and 21.8%, 21.1%, respectively. These 2 models outperformed the others including logistic regression. In contrast to GBMs, GA2M kept the interpretability of variable combinations, including interactions and nonlinearities assessment.

DISCUSSION

Although GA2M is slightly less performant than light GBM, it is not "black-box" algorithm, so being simply interpretable using shape and heatmap functions. This evidence supports the fact machine learning techniques should be adopted in case of complex algorithms such as those predicting the risk of CKD.

CONCLUSION

The GA2M was reliably performant in predicting CKD in primary care. A related decision support system might be therefore implemented.

Epidemiology of invasive meningococcal disease and its sequelae: a population-based study in Italian primary care, 2000-2019

BACKGROUND

Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) is a severe infectious disease. Although effective preventive and therapeutical strategies are available, the fatality rate remains high in the general population, with an occurrence of meningococcal-related severe sequelae involving 10-20% of survivors. Given the crucial role of general practitioners in recognizing and preventing IMD and its related sequelae, we aim to assess the burden of these conditions in primary care.

METHODS

Using an Italian primary care database, the incidence rate of IMD was calculated in the period 2000-2019 by capturing the first diagnosis registered during follow-up. As far as meningococcal-related sequelae are concerned, we identified and clinically evaluated each potential sequela during the first 3 months, from 3 to 12 months, and up to 36 months.

RESULTS

Among 508 patients diagnosed with IMD, 403 (incidence rate: 0.24 per 10,000 person-years) comprised those diagnosed with IMD in patients aged 15 years or older. We ascertained 104 sequelae (20.4%); 76% of them occurred in those aged 25 or older; 42, 27, and 35 were assessed as short-, medium-, or long-term sequelae, respectively. Overall, 4.7% of IMD patients reported physical sequelae, while 12.2% and 5.7% of patients reported neurological and psychological sequelae, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Our study showed that a substantial proportion of IMD and related sequelae occur in individuals aged over 25, with a non-negligible burden for healthcare systems. As for the paediatric population, effective communication on the relevance of meningococcal vaccination in adults should be proficiently fostered.

Early identification of chronic kidney disease: it is time to enhance patient and population-based informatics tools for general practitioners

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a global public health issue that can lead to several complications such as, kidney failure, cerebro/cardiovascular disease, and death.There is a well-documented "awareness gap" among general practitioners (GPs) to recognize CKD. As shown by estimates stemming from the Health Search Database (HSD) of the Italian College of General Practitioners and Primary Care (SIMG), no substantial changes were observed in terms of the incident rate of CKD over the last 10 years. Namely, 10.3 to 9.5 per 1,000 new cases of CKD were estimated in 2012 and 2021, respectively. Thus, strategies to reduce under-recognized cases are needed. Early identification of CKD might improve patient's quality of life and clinical outcomes. In this context, patient- and population-based informatic tools may support both opportunistic and systematic screening of patients at greater risk of CKD. As such, the new effective pharmacotherapies for CKD would be proficiently administered. To this aim, these two complimentary tools have been developed and will be further implemented by GPs.The effectiveness of these instruments in identifying the condition at an early stage and reducing the burden of CKD on the national health system needs to be verified according to the new regulations on medical device (MDR: (EU) 2017/745).

Frailty detection among primary care older patients through the Primary Care Frailty Index (PC-FI)

The prompt identification of frailty in primary care is the first step to offer personalized care to older individuals. We aimed to detect and quantify frailty among primary care older patients, by developing and validating a primary care frailty index (PC-FI) based on routinely collected health records and providing sex-specific frailty charts. The PC-FI was developed using data from 308,280 primary care patients ≥ 60 years old part of the Health Search Database (HSD) in Italy (baseline 2013-2019) and validated in the Swedish National Study on Aging and Care in Kungsholmen (SNAC-K; baseline 2001-2004), a well-characterized population-based cohort including 3363 individuals ≥ 60 years old. Potential health deficits part of the PC-FI were identified through ICD-9, ATC, and exemption codes and selected through an optimization algorithm (i.e., genetic algorithm), using all-cause mortality as the main outcome for the PC-FI development. The PC-FI association at 1, 3 and 5 years, and discriminative ability for mortality and hospitalization were tested in Cox models. The convergent validity with frailty-related measures was verified in SNAC-K. The following cut-offs were used to define absent, mild, moderate and severe frailty: < 0.07, 0.07-0.14, 0.14-0.21, and ≥ 0.21. Mean age of HSD and SNAC-K participants was 71.0 years (55.4% females). The PC-FI included 25 health deficits and showed an independent association with mortality (hazard ratio range 2.03-2.27; p < 0.05) and hospitalization (hazard ratio range 1.25-1.64; p < 0.05) and a fair-to-good discriminative ability (c-statistics range 0.74-0.84 for mortality and 0.59-0.69 for hospitalization). In HSD 34.2%, 10.9% and 3.8% were deemed mildly, moderately, and severely frail, respectively. In the SNAC-K cohort, the associations between PC-FI and mortality and hospitalization were stronger than in the HSD and PC-FI scores were associated with physical frailty (odds ratio 4.25 for each 0.1 increase; p < 0.05; area under the curve 0.84), poor physical performance, disability, injurious falls, and dementia. Almost 15% of primary care patients ≥ 60 years old are affected by moderate or severe frailty in Italy. We propose a reliable, automated, and easily implementable frailty index that can be used to screen the primary care population for frailty.

How many and who are patients with heart failure eligible to SGLT2 inhibitors? Responses from the combination of administrative healthcare and primary care databases

BACKGROUND

Recent successful findings (i.e. DAPA-HF trial) in patients with heart failure (HF) with/without diabetes treated with sodium-glucose co-transporter inhibitors (SGLT2-I) have fostered real-world data analyses. Fondazione Ricerca e Salute's (ReSD) administrative and Health Search's (HSD) primary healthcare databases were combined in the ReS-HS DB Consortium, to identify and characterize HF-patients eligible to SGLT2-I, and assess their costs charged to the Italian National Health Service (INHS).

METHODS AND RESULTS

Eligibility to SGLT2-I was HF diagnosis, age ≥ 18 years, reduced (≤40%) ejection fraction (HFrEF) and glomerular filtration rate (GFR) ≥30 ml/min. The HSD, including 13,313 HF-patients (1.5% of the total HSD population) was used to develop and test the algorithms for imputing HFrEF and GFR ≥ 30 ml/min, based on a set of covariates, to the ReSD, including 67,369 (1.5% of the total ReSD population). Subjects eligible to SGLT2-I were 2187 in HSD (61.1% of HFrEF); after the imputation, 15,145 in ReSD (58.8% of HFrEF). Prevalence of eligibility to SGLT2-I was higher in males then in females and increased with age; diabetic patients were 44.3% and 33.4% of HSD and ReSD populations eligible to SGLT2-I, respectively. Estimated from ReSD, the mean annual cost charged to the INHS per patient with HF eligible to SGLT2-I was €7122 (68% due to hospitalizations).

CONCLUSIONS

Approximately 20% of patients with HF was eligible to SGLT2-I. Real-world data can identify, quantify and characterize patients eligible to SGLT2-Is and assess related costs for the health care system, thus providing useful information to Regulatory Decision makers.

Variation in costs due to virtual switching from free- to fixed-triple LABA/LAMA/ICS combinations among COPD patients: an analysis using a primary care database

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a condition with a relevant clinical and economic burden. Only 10% to 40% of COPD patients reporting a regular use of respiratory medications, including those who suffered from severe disease being prescribed with triple combination therapy, nominally long-acting beta agonist (LABA), long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA) and inhaled corticosteroid (ICS). The recent market launch of fixed-triple LABA/LAMA/ICS therapy might contribute to improve medications adherence and costs containment, given the use of a single instead of two or three inhalers. Few data are available on costs due to triple therapy prescribed for COPD. In specific, there are no studies providing data on the potential costs saving whether COPD patients exposed to free-triple combination therapy were switched to fixed-triple combination. In this respect, we simulated some scenarios of virtual switching and calculated the related cost savings.

To clarify the safety profile of paracetamol for home-care patients with COVID-19: a real-world cohort study, with nested case-control analysis, in primary care

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to compare the prescribing patterns of paracetamol in COVID-19 with those for similar respiratory conditions and investigated the association between paracetamol use and COVID-19-related hospitalization/death.

METHODS

Using a primary care data source, we conducted a cohort study to calculate the incidence rate of paracetamol use in COVID-19 and for similar respiratory conditions in 2020 and 2019 (i.e. pre-pandemic phase), respectively. In the study cohort, we nested a case-control analyses to investigate the association between paracetamol use and COVID-19-related hospitalizations/deaths.

RESULTS

Overall, 1554 (33.4 per 1000) and 2566 patients (78.3 per 1000) were newly prescribed with paracetamol to treat COVID-19 or other respiratory conditions, respectively. Those aged 35-44 showed the highest prevalence rate (44.7 or 99.0 per 1000), while the oldest category reported the lowest value (17.8 or 39.8 per 1000). There was no association for early (OR = 1.15; 95% CI: 0.92-1.43) or mid-term (OR = 1.29; 95% CI: 0.61-2.73) users of paracetamol vs. non-users. Instead, the late users of paracetamol showed a statistically significant increased risk of hospitalization/death (OR = 1.75; 95% CI: 1.4-2.2).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings provide reassuring evidence on the use and safety profile of paracetamol to treat early symptoms of COVID-19 as in other respiratory infections.

Adjuvanted versus non-adjuvanted standard-dose influenza vaccines in preventing all-cause hospitalizations in the elderly: a cohort study with nested case-control analyses over 18 influenza seasons

BACKGROUND

The higher effectiveness of adjuvanted trivalent influenza vaccine (aTIV) versus non-adjuvanted (na) formulations in preventing all-cause hospitalization has been demonstrated for a single influenza season and in institutionalized elderly only. This study evaluated the relative vaccine effectiveness for aTIV vs. non-adjuvanted trivalent (naTIV) and/or quadrivalent (naQIV) influenza vaccines in preventing all-cause hospitalizations across 18 influenza seasons in primary care.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Using Health Search Database, a nested case-control analysis was conducted in a cohort of older adults being vaccinated with aTIV or naTIV/naQIV. Conditional logistic regression was adopted to estimate the odds ratio (OR) of all-cause hospitalizations occurred during the epidemic period.

RESULTS

Of 58,252 patients vaccinated with aTIV and naTIV/naQIV for the first time, 2,504 cases of all-cause hospitalization (3.46 per 1,000 person-weeks) during the 18 influenza seasons were identified. Compared with naTIV/naQIV, aTIV was associated with a 12% reduced the odds of all-cause hospitalizations (OR 0.88; 95% CI: 0.80-0.98).

CONCLUSIONS

In an 18-season cohort of older adults, aTIV reduced the risk of all-cause hospitalizations when compared with naTIV/naQIV. Our findings confirm additional benefits for adjuvanted influenza vaccines in older adults.

Opportunities for an early recognition of spinal muscular atrophy in primary care: a nationwide, population-based, study in Italy

BACKGROUND

Spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) is a rare genetic disease with a broad spectrum of severity. Although an early diagnosis of SMA is crucial to allow proper management of patients, the diagnostic delay is still an issue. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the clinical correlates of SMA among primary care patients.

METHODS

The Health Search Database (HSD) was adopted. To estimate the prevalence and incidence rate of SMA, a cohort study was conducted on the population (aged ≥6 years) being registered in HSD from 1 January 2000 up to 31 December 2019. To investigate the clinical correlates of SMA, a nested case-control study was performed. SMA cases have been classified according to a clinically based iterative process as "certain", "probable" or "possible". To test the association between clinical correlates and SMA cases a multivariate conditional logistic regression model was estimated.

RESULTS

The SMA prevalence combining "certain", "probable" and "possible" cases was 5.1 per 100,000 in 2019 (i.e. 1.12 per 100,000 when limited to "certain" cases), while the yearly incidence rate ranged from 0.12 to 0.56 cases per 100,000. Comparing "certain" cases with matched controls, the presence of neurology visits (OR = 6.5; 95% CI: 1.6-25.6) and prescription of electromyography (OR = 4.6; 95% CI: 1.1-18.7) were associated with higher odds of SMA diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that primary care databases may be used to enhance the early identification of SMA. Additional efforts are needed to exploit the electronic health records of general practitioners to allow early recognition of SMA.

A Cohort Study on Influenza Vaccine and All-Cause Mortality in Older Adults: Methodological Concerns and Public Health Implications

Introduction

In 2020, the restrictions adopted to control the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic led to an unprecedented reduction in influenza-related burden. As such, the reduced chance to characterize the circulating virus strains might have increased the risk of vaccine mismatch for the forthcoming winter seasons. The role of an effective influenza vaccination campaign might therefore assume even more value, especially for frail and multimorbid older individuals. Methodological concerns on confounding by indication are always debated in vaccine effectiveness studies and it might be instrumental to give a pragmatic message on an individual’s responsibility to receive the influenza vaccine. We therefore investigated the role of specific confounders to explain the association between influenza vaccine and mortality among older adults.

Methods

Using a primary care database, we formed a cohort of patients aged 65 years or older who were actively registered with their general practitioner (GP) at the beginning of each of nine influenza seasons through to the 2018/2019 season. The study index date was the related seasons’ starting date. Exposure to the influenza vaccine was operationally defined in the 2 months preceding the index date up to 2 weeks before the exit date. Cox regression models were estimated to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) of death between vaccinated and unvaccinated patients in a time-dependent fashion. The potential confounders sequentially entered the model based on their increasing effect size observed in univariate analyses.

Results

Over the 10 years under study, the influenza vaccine showed a significant protective effect in terms of mortality, reaching 13% reduction (HR 0.87, 95% CI 0.80–0.95) in the 2018/2019 influenza season. When we estimated the multivariate model by sequentially adding the potential confounders, there was an inversion of HR (below the unit) that was significantly explained by the covariates coding for a prior history of lower respiratory tract infections and the presence of the pneumococcal vaccine.

Conclusion

In the current pandemic scenario, we cannot divert attention to proper use of face masks, social distancing, and hand hygiene, which are important measures to prevent influenza and other respiratory viral infections. Nonetheless, their effectiveness might be negligible without acceptable coverage for influenza vaccine, especially in older patients with a history of lower respiratory tract infections, which appears to be the main source of confounding by indication.

Potentially inappropriate prescribing before and after nursing home admission: a retrospective observational study in a sample of Italian nursing homes

OBJECTIVES

to assess the occurrence of potentially inappropriate prescribing (PIP) in residents of Tuscany nursing homes (NHs) and its variation before and after NH entry.

DESIGN

retrospective observational study using data from the Regional Administrative Database of Tuscany.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

the study involved residents of 67 Tuscan NHs identified between 2011 and 2012. To estimate PIP prevalence before and after NH, a subset of 10 indicators of the Screening Tool of Older Person's Prescriptions (STOPP) criteria were selected.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

prevalence of PIP. RESULTS: considering 2,801 NH residents, the proportion of PIP ranged from 0.0% to 55.2% and from 0.0% to 33.9% before and after the NH admission, respectively. Overall, this study showed a decrease in the occurrence of PIP after the NH admission for most of the indicators, reaching statistical significance for indicator 3 (tricyclic antidepressants in combination with an opiate or calcium channel blockers), 7 (prescription of NSAIDs in heart failure patients), and 9 (warfarin in combination with NSAIDs).

CONCLUSIONS

although the reduction of PIP after NH admission may suggest greater awareness about the appropriateness of drug use, more efforts still need to be made.

Acute appendicitis in a patient immunised with COVID-19 vaccine: A case report with morphological analysis

Although the benefit/risk profile for mRNA COVID-19 vaccines is recognised as extremely favourable, appendicitis is currently considered an adverse event (AE) of special interest. We describe the case of a 58-year-old female who presented with signs and symptoms of appendicitis approximately 48 hours after her first injection of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. Abdominal ultrasound revealed fluid collection in the right iliac fossa and cecal wall thickening. Following the surgical visit, CT scan with contrast showed a distended appendix with thickened walls, suggestive of acute appendicitis. The patient tested negative to upper respiratory COVID-19 reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction. Clinical trials and observational studies suggest a possible association between appendicitis and COVID-19 vaccines. Th-1 driven granulomatous inflammation reported in our case represents an infrequent nonspecific chronic inflammation of the appendix, especially in the setting of delayed or interval appendectomy. In view of the current paediatric vaccination campaign, we recommend monitoring the safety profile and potential gastrointestinal AEs associated with mRNA COVID-19 vaccines to swiftly manage subjects with gastrointestinal symptoms and prevent potential complications.

Clinical Decision Support System (CDSS) in primary care: from pragmatic use to the best approach to assess their benefit/risk profile in clinical practice

Clinical Decision Support Systems (CDSSs) are computer-based tools intended to support physicians in clinical decision making. MilleDSS is an illustrative example for the Italian context. It is featured by four domains of GP-software interaction, such as clinical management and follow-up evaluation, prescribing appropriateness and clinical risk, prevention strategies and medical computerized stewardship on scientific update and training. MilleDSS registered 23,222 accesses in early September 2021. In specific, the sections on prevention and training were viewed 19,440 and 21,797 times, respectively.The Medical Device Regulation (MDR: (EU) 2017/745) indicates that clinical evidence needs to be provided for any software intended to medical purpose. Clinical research on CDSS effectiveness will be therefore conducted through epidemiological studies. In theory, this generation of evidence would follow the pyramid of evidence as per medications approval but, given the large use and constant update of CDSS for daily clinical practice, attentions should be posed on the most cost-effective study.

Predicting the risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes in primary care: development and validation of a vulnerability index for equitable allocation of effective vaccines

BACKGROUND

General practitioners (GPs) need a valid, user-friendly tool to identify patients most vulnerable to COVID-19, especially in the hypothesis of a booster vaccine dose. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a GP-friendly prognostic index able to forecast severe COVID-19 outcomes in primary care. Indeed, no such prognostic score is as yet available in Italy.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, a representative sample of 47,868 Italian adults were followed up for 129,000 person-months. The study outcome was COVID-19-related hospitalization and/or death. Candidate predictors were chosen on the basis of systematic evidence and current recommendations. The model was calibrated by using Cox regression. Both internal and external validations were performed.

RESULTS

Age, sex and several clinical characteristics were significantly associated with severe outcomes. The final multivariable model explained 60% (95%CI 58-63%) of variance for COVID-19-related hospitalizations and/or deaths. The area under the receiver-operator curve (AUC) was 84% (95% CI: 83-85%). On applying the index to an external cohort, the AUC was 94% (95% CI: 93-95%).

CONCLUSIONS

This index is a reliable prognostic tool that can help GPs to prioritize their patients for preventive and therapeutic interventions.

Determinants of HCV-related complications in Italian primary care patients

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

This study aimed to assess the demographic and clinical determinants of liver complications in Hepatitis C virus (HCV)-positive patients in primary care setting.

METHODS

Using the Health Search database, we selected a cohort of patients aged ≥14 diagnosed with HCV between 2002 and 2017. Patients were followed up until the occurrence of cirrhosis and other disease progressions such as oesophageal varices, hepatocellular carcinoma and/or liver transplantation. The candidate determinants for the risk of HCV-related complications included sex, age, smoking status, liver fibrosis (measured by fibrosis 4 index [FIB-4]), infections by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), other forms of hepatitis, abuse of alcohol or illicit substances or drugs, obesity, metabolic syndrome, diabetes mellitus and renal disease. Cox regression was used to test the association between candidate determinants and the outcome.

RESULTS

The cohort included 8299 HCV-positive patients (50.93% men) with an overall prevalence rate equal to 0.61%. At least one HCV-related complication was found in 12.2% of patients, with a mean time-to-event equal to 8.1 year. Along with male sex and advanced age, a FIB-4 greater than 3.25 and the presence of diabetes were associated with a greater risk of HCV-related complications.

CONCLUSION

Our study shows that patients with certain demographics and clinical characteristics are more prone to incur in HCV-related complications. The knowledge and early identification of these determinants by GPs may result in reducing disease progression and related healthcare costs through a closer monitoring.

Microencapsulation of Phenolic Extracts from Cocoa Shells to Enrich Chocolate Bars

Cocoa bean shells were subjected to green extraction technologies, based on the absence of toxic organic solvents, to recover polyphenols; the extract was then encapsulated using a spray dryer and maltodextrin as coating agent. The best conditions observed in the spray drying tests (core-to-coating ratio 1:5; inlet temperature 150 °C; flow rate 6 ml min^-1) were applied to produce the microcapsules used to enrich the same cocoa mass as the shells and processed for the preparation of the chocolate bars. Sensory analysis showed no significant differences between enriched chocolate bar and the unenriched reference one, except for the appearance. Both samples were then subjected to accelerated storage tests, at the end of which the polyphenols in the control chocolate bar (0.85 g 100 g^-1) were reduced by about 50% (0.42 g 100 g^-1), while in the enriched chocolate (1.17 g 100 g^-1) by only 22% (0.97 g 100 g^-1). The proposed process significantly enriched the chocolate bars with phenolic antioxidants recovered from cocoa waste without increasing the sensations of bitterness and astringency.

Reduced effectiveness among β-lactam antibiotics: a population-based cohort study in primary care in Italy

BACKGROUND

There are few data comparing the relative effectiveness of the individual β-lactams.

OBJECTIVES

To quantify the reduced effectiveness, defined as switching to a different antibiotic being prescribed for the same indication, among new users of β-lactam antibiotics in primary care.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted using the Health Search Database, an Italian primary care data source. Patients newly prescribed with β-lactams for a specific indication between 1 January 2013 and 31 December 2017 were identified. A switch to a different antibiotic for the same indication occurring during a 30day follow-up was the study outcome. Cox regression was adopted to assess the risk of switching between the different β-lactams.

RESULTS

Among 178 256 patients newly treated with β-lactam antibiotics, 1172 (0.65%) switched to a different antibiotic. Amoxicillin/clavulanate (co-amoxiclav: n = 104 891) and amoxicillin (n = 21 699) were the most frequently prescribed β-lactams. The other antibiotics showed significantly higher risk of switching when compared with co-amoxiclav for lower respiratory tract [e.g. ceftriaxone, hazard ratio (HR): 1.6, 95% CI: 1.2-2.0], dental [e.g. amoxicillin, HR: 4.2, 95% CI: 2.9-5.9], and middle ear infections [e.g. amoxicillin, HR: 1.8, 95% CI: 1.1-2.7]. The same results were gathered when parenteral formulations were excluded.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of reduced effectiveness of newly prescribed β-lactam antibiotics was lower than 1%. Specifically, the rate of switch to another antibiotic, when it was prescribed to treat low respiratory tract, dental, and middle ear infections, was lower among users of co-amoxiclav than those prescribed with other β-lactams.

Adherence to Triple-Free-Drug Combination Therapies Among Patients With Cardiovascular Disease

Combination therapies are often needed to modify the concomitant risk factors for cardiovascular disease. Nonadherence to cardiovascular medications is a relevant concern, especially in polytherapy. We conducted a population-based, cohort study with the aim of quantifying the level of adherence and its related determinants in patients exposed to free 3-drug combination therapies, namely concurrent use of angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitor (ACEi), calcium channel blocker (CCB), and statin or of ACEi, statin, and low-dose aspirin. Within Health Search Database, we selected a cohort of adult patients concurrently prescribed with ACEi, CCB, and statin, as well as those prescribed with ACEi, statin and low-dose aspirin, from the January 1, 2002 to the December 31, 2014. Adherent patients were concurrent users of triple free pill regimen with a proportion of days covered ≥80% during 1-year follow-up; demographics and clinical determinants of 1-year adherence were identified by multivariate logistic regression. We found that more than half of patients prescribed with triple free drug combination therapy with ACEi plus CCB plus statin or ACEi plus statin plus low-dose aspirin, were found to be nonadherent to these treatments. Males and patients at high/very-high cardiovascular risk were more likely to be adherent, whereas depression and atrial fibrillation were associated with nonadherence. Our findings indicate that sex, cardiovascular risk, presence of atrial fibrillation, and depression can influence adherence to polytherapy. In conclusion, given that patients suffering from multiple cardiovascular risk factors are at higher risk of fatal events, strategies are needed to improve medication adherence to combination therapies.

Derivation and Validation of a Prediction Model for Venous Thromboembolism in Primary Care

BACKGROUND

 Most episodes of venous thromboembolism (VTE) occurred in primary care. To date, no score potentially able to identify those patients who may deserve an antithrombotic prophylaxis has been developed.

AIM

 The objective of this study is to develop and validate a prediction model for VTE in primary care.

METHODS

 Using the Health Search Database, we identified a cohort of 1,359,880 adult patients between 2002 and 2013. The date of the first General Practitioner's (GP) visit was the cohort entry date. All VTE cases (index date) observed up to December 2014 were identified. The cohort was randomly divided in a development and a validation cohort. According to nested case-cohort analysis, up to five controls were matched to their respective cases on month and year of cohort entry and duration of follow-up.The score was evaluated according to explained variance (pseudo R²) as a performance measure, ratio of predicted to observed cases as model calibration and area under the curve (AUC) as discrimination measure.

RESULTS

 The score was able to explain 27.9% of the variation for VTE occurrence. The calibration measure revealed a margin of error lower than 10% in 70% of the population. In terms of discrimination, AUC was 0.82 (95% confidence interval: 0.82-0.83). Results of sensitivity analyses substantially confirmed these findings.

CONCLUSION

 The present score demonstrated a very good accuracy in predicting the risk of VTE in primary care. This score may be therefore implemented in clinical practice so aiding GPs in making decision on patients potentially at risk of VTE.

Epidemiology and determinants of chronic migraine: A real-world cohort study, with nested case-control analysis, in primary care in Italy

BACKGROUND

The proper identification of chronic migraine is one of the mainstays for general practitioners. This study therefore aims to assess the epidemiology and determinants of chronic migraine in primary care in Italy by testing five operational case definition algorithms.

METHODS

Five case definition algorithms defining chronic migraine were developed to estimate the prevalence and incidence rate of chronic migraine in the Health Search database. For each algorithm, we conducted a nested case-control analysis to quantify the level of association between certain determinants and incident cases of chronic migraine.

RESULTS

Considering a cohort of 1,091,032 patients (52% were females), the prevalence rate of chronic migraine increased from the first to the fifth case definition algorithm ranging from 0.03 to 0.28%. No 95% confidence interval overlapped the others, and every confidence interval reliably maintained 2% precision. Incidence rates showed a growing trend (0.008-0.056 per 100,000 person-years) as well. All case definition algorithms were able to capture sex (i.e. female) and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) overuse as statistically significant determinants of incident cases of chronic migraine. Depression was associated with a statistically significant increase of incidence rate of chronic migraine only for two case definition algorithms.

CONCLUSION

Our findings show that prevalence and incidence rate of chronic migraine are underestimated when compared with current literature. On the other hand, we found acceptable correctness of chronic migraine definition in the light of the association with well-known determinants.

Epidemiology of non-deferrable medical conditions in primary care in Italy

Non-deferrable medical conditions (NDMC) are clinical entities other than exacerbations of chronic diseases which are too frequently managed by emergency departments. The primary care setting would be indeed the ideal environment to proficiently treat them. Few studies have investigated the epidemiology of NDMC in primary care, especially in Italy. With the aim to better identify NDMC sufferers, we assessed the accuracy of the NDMC definition by means of four algorithms, featured by different specificities and sensitivities. Four algorithms, based on the hierarchical definition of NDMC, were developed to calculate the incidence rate of NDMC in 2014. Each was tested using a Cox univariate model adjusted for gender, comparing patients aged <45 years old with older patients. Algorithms 1 and 3 gave similar results (408.1 vs. 405.5 per 1,000 person-years); Algorithms 2 and 4 reported sensibly lower rates (84.7 and 84.0 per 1,000 person-years). Incidence rate of NDMC for female patients was higher than in males and for older age group (i.e. 75-84 age group) than younger patients, for both gender groups. Regarding the regression model, a higher risk of NDMC was estimated in patients aged 45 years or more and in females. This study allowed us to assess the incidence rate of NDMC in Italy which was unexpectedly higher among older patients. Given the crucial role of general practitioners (GPs) in the diagnosis and management of these conditions, as well as the healthcare system reforms imposed by the ongoing financial crisis, our findings may contribute to informing the capacity and strategic workload planning in group of GPs to improve service quality and profitably to reduce the excessive use of emergency departments.

Efficacy and safety of pharmacological treatments for patent ductus arteriosus closure: A systematic review and network meta-analysis of clinical trials and observational studies

Efficacy and safety profiles of different pharmacological interventions used to treat patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) are relatively unexplored. Integrating the findings of randomized clinical trials (RCTs) with those from observational studies may provide key evidence on this important issue. We aimed at estimating the relative likelihood of failure to close the PDA, need for surgical closure, and occurrence of adverse events among preterm and full-term infants treated with indomethacin, ibuprofen, or acetaminophen, placebo, or no treatment including both RCTs and observational studies. We searched PubMed, Embase, and the Register of Controlled Trials from inception to October 30, 2018. We first estimated proportions of subjects with failure to close the PDA, subjects in whom surgical closure was performed after pharmacological treatment, death, and subjects with selected adverse events (AEs). These estimates were obtained using frequentist random-effect meta-analysis of arm-specific proportions. We then compared active drugs with each other and with control (either placebo or no treatment) by summarizing results at the end of treatment reported in the papers, regardless of number of administration(s), dose, route and type of administration, and study design and quality. We also summarized primary outcome results separately at first, second and third cycles of treatment. These estimates were obtained using Bayesian random-effects network meta-analysis for mixed comparisons, and frequentist random-effect pairwise meta-analysis for direct comparisons. We included 64 RCTs and 24 observational studies including 14,568 subjects (5339 in RCTs and 9229 in observational studies, 8292 subjects received indomethacin, 4761 ibuprofen, 574 acetaminophen, and 941 control (including placebo or no intervention).The proportion of subjects with failure to close the PDA was 0.24 (95% Confidence Interval, CI: 0.20, 0.29) for indomethacin, 0.18 (0.14, 0.22) for ibuprofen, 0.19 (0.09, 0.30) for acetaminophen, and 0.59 (0.48, 0.69) for control. At end of treatment, compared to control, we found inverse associations between all active drugs and failure to close PDA (for indomethacin Odds Ratio, OR, was 0.17 [95% Credible Interval, CrI: 0.11-0.24], ibuprofen 0.19 [0.12-0.28], and acetaminophen 0.15 [0.09-0.26]), without differences among active drugs. We showed inverse associations between effective drugs and need for surgical closure, as compared to control (for indomethacin OR was 0.28 [0.15-0.50], ibuprofen 0.30 [0.16-0.54], and acetaminophen 0.19 [0.07-0.46]), without differences among drugs. Indomethacin was directly associated with intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) (1.27; 1.00, 1.62) compared to ibuprofen, and to oliguria as compared to ibuprofen (3.92; 1.69, 9.82) or acetaminophen (10.8; 1.86, 93.1). In conclusion, active pharmacological treatment, with indomethacin, ibuprofen, or acetaminophen, is inversely associated with failure to close the PDA compared to non-treatment. Ibuprofen should be preferred to indomethacin to avoid occurrence of IVH or oliguria, acetaminophen should be preferred to indomethacin to avoid oliguria.

Adjuvanted versus nonadjuvanted influenza vaccines and risk of hospitalizations for pneumonia and cerebro/cardiovascular events in the elderly

Background: The higher effectiveness of MF59®-adjuvanted trivalent influenza vaccine (MF59-TIV) vs. nonadjuvanted TIV in preventing influenza-related hospitalizations was found considering few influenza seasons, local and heterogeneous settings. This study evaluated the relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) of MF59-TIV vs. nonadjuvanted TIV on the risk of hospitalization for pneumonia and cerebro/cardiovascular events across 15 consecutive influenza seasons. Research design and methods: Using Health Search Database, a case-control study was nested in a cohort of elderly vaccinated with MF59-TIV or TIV. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratio with 95% confidence intervals (CI) of hospitalizations potentially related to influenza in patients vaccinated with MF59-TIV or TIV. Results: Of 43,000 patients vaccinated with MF59-TIV (66.2%) and TIV (33.8%) for the first time, 103 cases of hospitalization for pneumonia or cerebro/cardiovascular events (0.11 per 1,000 person-weeks) during 15 influenza seasons were identified. The MF59-TIV was associated with a reduced risk of hospitalizations for pneumonia and cerebro/cardiovascular events vs. TIV [rVE: 39% (95% CI: 4-61%)]. Conclusions: In a 15-season cohort of elderly, MF59-TIV seems to reduce the risk of hospitalizations for pneumonia and cerebro/cardiovascular events when compared with nonadjuvanted TIV. Our findings support the recommendation for MF59-TIV in the elderly population.

Prescribing patterns of allopurinol and febuxostat according to directives on the reimbursement criteria and clinical guidelines: analysis of a primary care database

OBJECTIVE

According to American clinical guidelines, allopurinol and febuxostat may be prescribed as first-line therapy to treat hyperuricemia. However, the Italian Medicines Agency directive, called Nota 91, allows the reimbursement of second-line febuxostat in the case of failure and/or intolerance of a previous allopurinol therapy, so partially embracing European League Against Rheumatism recommendations and the British Society for Rheumatology Guideline. Such inconsistency might lead to heterogeneity among General Practitioners (GPs) in treatment of hyperuricemia. This study, therefore, aimed to evaluate the prescribing behavior of GPs in terms of compliance with Nota 91 and/or official guidelines.

METHODS

Using the Health Search Database, a retrospective cohort study was conducted to evaluate the patterns of use of allopurinol and febuxostat between 2011 and 2016.

RESULTS

In total, 44,257 and 5837 patients were prescribed with allopurinol and febuxostat, respectively. Among febuxostat users, 4321 (74%) had a previous allopurinol treatment; 92% of switches to febuxostat were related to hyperuricemia, whereas 9% of switchers presented intolerance to allopurinol; 26% of patients were prescribed with febuxostat as first-line therapy. The presence of diabetes and/or moderate/severe renal disease were statistically significant determinants of febuxostat use as first-line therapy.

CONCLUSION

Prescriptions of febuxostat were highly compliant to Nota 91. Only a sub-group of frontline prescriptions of febuxostat were mainly driven by the presence of renal dysfunction, which is able to increase the risk of allopurinol intolerance and/or inefficacy. These findings indicate that GPs' prescribing behavior for hyperuricemia is highly compliant with both regulatory directives and clinical guidelines.

Pattern of Use and Long-Term Safety of Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitors: A Decade of Real-World Management of Chronic Myeloid Leukemia

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

First-line treatment of chronic phase (CP) chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) is based on the first-generation tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) imatinib or the second-generation TKIs dasatinib or nilotinib. Thanks to the efficacy of TKIs, CML has switched from a fatal to a 'chronic' pathology, and data from clinical trials have become insufficient to drive physicians' prescription choices and address long-term treatment outcomes. On the brink of commercialization of generic imatinib, this study aims to evaluate the therapeutic pattern of CP-CML and the occurrence of adverse events (AEs) over a decade of local real clinical practice.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was performed on CP-CML patients followed up in the Local Health Unit of Treviso (Veneto Region, Italy) during the period 2005-2015. Data were captured from both administrative databases and physicians' patient diaries.

RESULTS

Of 81 CP-CML patients, 73 were treated with first-line imatinib; among the second-generation TKIs, only nilotinib was used (n = 8). Overall, 38% of imatinib-treated subjects needed to switch, mainly due to intolerance, whereas no switches occurred in the nilotinib cohort. Osteoarticular pain was the most common AE and was significantly more frequent in the imatinib cohort (68.49 vs. 25.00%, p = 0.022). Other common AEs were dermatologic manifestations, asthenia, and diarrhea.

CONCLUSION

Although based on a small population, this study represents an unbiased reference on the long-term management of CML in an Italian clinical setting. Our results indicate a better profile of first-line nilotinib, both in terms of persistency and tolerability. AEs remain a major concern, highlighting the importance of close monitoring.

Acute liver injury following Garcinia cambogia weight-loss supplementation: case series and literature review

Herbal weight-loss supplements are sold as self-medication products, and are often used under the misconception that their natural origin guarantees their safety. Food supplements are not required to provide any benefit/risk profile evaluation before marketing; however, possible risks associated with use of herbal extracts in food supplements are becoming more and more documented in the literature. Some herbs are listed as the leading cause of herb-induced liver injury, with a severe or potentially lethal clinical course, and unpredictable herb-drug interactions. Garcinia cambogia (GC) extract and GC-containing products are some of the most popular dietary supplements currently marketed for weight loss. Here, we present four cases of acute liver failure in women taking GC extract for weight loss, and a literature review of clinical evidences about hepatic toxicity in patients taking dietary supplements containing GC extract.

The use of complementary and alternative medicines during breastfeeding: results from the Herbal supplements in Breastfeeding InvesTigation (HaBIT) study

AIMS

The use of complementary and alternative medicines (CAMs) during breastfeeding is increasing, mainly because of their presumed greater safety compared with conventional medications. However, CAMs can cause serious adverse effects, and there is limited high-quality evidence supporting their use during lactation. In Italy, specific investigations on the attitude of lactating women towards CAMs are lacking. The Herbal supplements in Breastfeeding InvesTigation (HaBIT) study aimed to explore attitudes to and knowledge on CAMs among lactating women.

METHODS

A web-based survey was conducted over a 6-year period among lactating women resident in Tuscany, Italy. Data on lactating behaviour, CAMs use during pregnancy or breastfeeding, and women's knowledge about the efficacy and safety of CAMs were collected.

RESULTS

A total of 388 lactating women answered the questionnaire. The majority of them were primiparae, with a high educational level. Of these, 204 women declared themselves to have used CAMs during breastfeeding. Moreover, 61% and 48% of subjects reported also using CAMs before and during pregnancy, respectively. A significant proportion of subjects were unable to identify correctly the types of CAMs they were using. Seventy-three per cent of women were convinced that CAMs were equally safe or safer than conventional medications; nevertheless, 65% of women admitted to have no scientific information about the potential risks of CAMs, and 14 CAMs users reported that they had experienced side effects.

CONCLUSIONS

These results demonstrate the need for healthcare providers to increase the awareness of breastfeeding women about CAMs. Further research is needed to support the evidence base for nonpharmaceutical approaches for symptom control during breastfeeding.

Characterization of serious adverse drug reactions as cause of emergency department visit in children: a 5-years active pharmacovigilance study

Background

To describe frequency, preventability and seriousness of adverse drug reactions (ADRs) in children as cause of emergency department (ED) admission and to evaluate the association between specific factors and the reporting of ADRs.

Methods

A retrospective analysis based on reports of suspected ADRs collected between January 1st, 2012 and December 31st, 2016 in the ED of Meyer Children’s Hospital (Italy). Demographics, clinical status, suspected drugs, ADR description, and its degree of seriousness were collected. Logistic regression was used to estimate the reporting odds ratios (RORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of potential predictors of ADR seriousness.

Results

Within 5 years, we observed 834 ADRs (1100 drug-ADR pairs), of whom 239 were serious; of them, 224 led to hospitalization. Patients were mostly treated with one drug. Among patients treated with more than one drug, 78 ADRs presented a potential interaction. The most frequently reported ADRs involved gastrointestinal system. The most frequently reported medication class was antinfectives. Risk of serious ADR was significantly lower in children and infants compared to adolescents (ROR 0.41 [95% CI: 0.27–0.61] and 0.47 [0.32–0.71], respectively), and it was significantly increased in subjects exposed to more than one drug (ROR 1.87 [1.33–2.62] and 3.01 [2.07–4.37] for subjects exposed to 2 and 3 or more drugs, respectively). Gender, interactions and off-label drug use did not influence the risk of serious ADRs.

Conclusion

Active surveillance in pharmacovigilance might represent the best strategy to estimate and characterize the clinical burden of ADRs in children.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s40360-018-0207-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Metabolic effects of a diet with inulin-enriched pasta in healthy young volunteers

Different lines of evidence suggest that higher intake of fiber may somehow protect against metabolic syndrome. The prebiotic inulin has widely been studied in relation to its putative beneficial effects on lipid and glucose metabolism. Therefore, adding inulin to diet may be a suitable strategy to prevent metabolic syndrome. Aim of the present study was to evaluate the effects of the daily consumption of inulin-enriched pasta on lipid and glucose metabolism as well as on gastrointestinal motility in young healthy subjects. Methods. Twenty-two healthy young male volunteers entered a randomized double blind cross-over study consisting of a 2-weeks a run-in period, two 5-weeks study periods (11% inulin-enriched or control pasta), and an 8-weeks wash-out period in between. Serum lipid and glucose concentrations were evaluated by routine biochemical analyses. Gastric emptying time and electrical activity were non-invasively evaluated by ultrasound and electrogastrography. Data were analyzed by Friedman Repeated Measures ANOVA test. Results. Significant differences among baseline and the treatment group were found for HDL-cholesterol (p=0.004), total cholesterol/HDL-cholesterol ratio (p=0.006), triglycerides (p=0.04), fasting glucose level (p=0.044), fructosamine (p=0.0478), HbA1c (p=0.04), and homeostatic model assessment (HOMA-IR) (p=0.045). The gastric emptying, expressed as final emptying time, was found significantly delayed in the group that assumed inulin-enriched pasta (p=0.008). Conclusions. Inulin-enriched pasta improved lipidic and glicidic metabolism as well as the insulin resistance in healthy young subjects. In addition, it delayed the gastric emptying time which may represent the physiological counterpart of its metabolic effects.

Direct electrochemical detection of trichothecenes in wheat samples using a 96-well electrochemical plate coupled with microwave hydrolysis

The use of a 96-well electrochemical plate for the fast and sensitive detection of deoxynivalenol and nivalenol in wheat samples is shown. Deoxynivalenol and nivalenol are hydrolysed using a microwave hydrolysis procedure (2 min) which leads to the production of electroactive compounds that can be sensitively detected by the use of cheap screen-printed electrodes. A procedure of extraction with aqueous acetonitrile and a clean-up step was demonstrated to be suitable for the application with wheat samples providing suitable detection limit (LOD=1.1 µg/g) and working range (2-20 µg/g) for the determination of deoxynivalenol in cereals for feed consumption.