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Silva AF, Dourado I, Lua I, Jesus GS, Guimarães NS, Morais GAS, Anderle RVR, Pescarini JM, Machado DB, Santos CAST, Ichihara MY, Barreto ML, Magno L, Souza LE, Macinko J, Rasella D. Income determines the impact of cash transfers on HIV/AIDS: cohort study of 22.7 million Brazilians. Nat Commun 2024; 15:1307. [PMID: 38346964 PMCID: PMC10861499 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-44975-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/04/2023] [Accepted: 01/10/2024] [Indexed: 02/15/2024] Open
Abstract
Living with extremely low-income is an important risk factor for HIV/AIDS and can be mitigated by conditional cash transfers. Using a cohort of 22.7 million low-income individuals during 9 years, we evaluated the effects of the world's largest conditional cash transfer, the Programa Bolsa Família, on HIV/AIDS-related outcomes. Exposure to Programa Bolsa Família was associated with reduced AIDS incidence by 41% (RR:0.59; 95%CI:0.57-0.61), mortality by 39% (RR:0.61; 95%CI:0.57-0.64), and case fatality rates by 25% (RR:0.75; 95%CI:0.66-0.85) in the cohort, and Programa Bolsa Família effects were considerably stronger among individuals of extremely low-income [reduction of 55% for incidence (RR:0.45, 95% CI:0.42-0.47), 54% mortality (RR:0.46, 95% CI:0.42-0.49), and 37% case-fatality (RR:0.63, 95% CI:0.51 -0.76)], decreasing gradually until having no effect in individuals with higher incomes. Similar effects were observed on HIV notification. Programa Bolsa Família impact was also stronger among women and adolescents. Several sensitivity and triangulation analyses demonstrated the robustness of the results. Conditional cash transfers can significantly reduce AIDS morbidity and mortality in extremely vulnerable populations and should be considered an essential intervention to achieve AIDS-related sustainable development goals by 2030.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andréa F Silva
- Institute of Collective Health, Federal University of Bahia (UFBA), Salvador, Brazil
- Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ), Salvador, Brazil
| | - Inês Dourado
- Institute of Collective Health, Federal University of Bahia (UFBA), Salvador, Brazil
| | - Iracema Lua
- Institute of Collective Health, Federal University of Bahia (UFBA), Salvador, Brazil
- Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ), Salvador, Brazil
| | - Gabriela S Jesus
- Institute of Collective Health, Federal University of Bahia (UFBA), Salvador, Brazil
- Faculty of Medicine, Federal University of Bahia (UFBA), Salvador, Brazil
| | - Nathalia S Guimarães
- Institute of Collective Health, Federal University of Bahia (UFBA), Salvador, Brazil
| | - Gabriel A S Morais
- Institute of Collective Health, Federal University of Bahia (UFBA), Salvador, Brazil
| | - Rodrigo V R Anderle
- Institute of Collective Health, Federal University of Bahia (UFBA), Salvador, Brazil
| | - Julia M Pescarini
- Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ), Salvador, Brazil
| | - Daiane B Machado
- Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ), Salvador, Brazil
- Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Carlos A S T Santos
- Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ), Salvador, Brazil
| | - Maria Y Ichihara
- Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ), Salvador, Brazil
| | - Mauricio L Barreto
- Institute of Collective Health, Federal University of Bahia (UFBA), Salvador, Brazil
- Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ), Salvador, Brazil
| | - Laio Magno
- Institute of Collective Health, Federal University of Bahia (UFBA), Salvador, Brazil
- Department of Life Sciences, State University of Bahia (UNEB), Salvador, Brazil
| | - Luis E Souza
- Institute of Collective Health, Federal University of Bahia (UFBA), Salvador, Brazil
| | - James Macinko
- Departments of Health Policy and Management and Community Health Sciences, UCLA Fielding School of Public Health, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Davide Rasella
- Institute of Collective Health, Federal University of Bahia (UFBA), Salvador, Brazil.
- Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ), Salvador, Brazil.
- ISGlobal, Hospital Clinic - Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.
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