An Epidemic Model with Infection Age and Vaccination Age Structure

A model of epidemic dynamics is developed that incorporates continuous variables for infection age and vaccination age. The model analyzes pre-symptomatic and symptomatic periods of an infected individual in terms of infection age. This property is shown to be of major importance in the severity of the epidemic, when the infectious period of an infected individual precedes the symptomatic period. The model also analyzes the efficacy of vaccination in terms of vaccination age. The immunity to infection of vaccinated individuals varies with vaccination age and is also of major significance in the severity of the epidemic. Application of the model to the 2003 SARS epidemic in Taiwan and the COVID-19 epidemic in New York provides insights into the dynamics of these diseases. It is shown that the SARS outbreak was effectively contained due to the complete overlap of infectious and symptomatic periods, allowing for the timely isolation of affected individuals. In contrast, the pre-symptomatic spread of COVID-19 in New York led to a rapid, uncontrolled epidemic. These findings underscore the critical importance of the pre-symptomatic infectious period and the vaccination strategies in influencing the dynamics of an epidemic.

Global uncertainty in the diagnosis of neurological complications of SARS-CoV-2 infection by both neurologists and non-neurologists: An international inter-observer variability study

INTRODUCTION

Uniform case definitions are required to ensure harmonised reporting of neurological syndromes associated with SARS-CoV-2. Moreover, it is unclear how clinicians perceive the relative importance of SARS-CoV-2 in neurological syndromes, which risks under- or over-reporting.

METHODS

We invited clinicians through global networks, including the World Federation of Neurology, to assess ten anonymised vignettes of SARS-CoV-2 neurological syndromes. Using standardised case definitions, clinicians assigned a diagnosis and ranked association with SARS-CoV-2. We compared diagnostic accuracy and assigned association ranks between different settings and specialties and calculated inter-rater agreement for case definitions as "poor" (κ ≤ 0.4), "moderate" or "good" (κ > 0.6).

RESULTS

1265 diagnoses were assigned by 146 participants from 45 countries on six continents. The highest correct proportion were cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST, 95.8%), Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS, 92.4%) and headache (91.6%) and the lowest encephalitis (72.8%), psychosis (53.8%) and encephalopathy (43.2%). Diagnostic accuracy was similar between neurologists and non-neurologists (median score 8 vs. 7/10, p = 0.1). Good inter-rater agreement was observed for five diagnoses: cranial neuropathy, headache, myelitis, CVST, and GBS and poor agreement for encephalopathy. In 13% of vignettes, clinicians incorrectly assigned lowest association ranks, regardless of setting and specialty.

CONCLUSION

The case definitions can help with reporting of neurological complications of SARS-CoV-2, also in settings with few neurologists. However, encephalopathy, encephalitis, and psychosis were often misdiagnosed, and clinicians underestimated the association with SARS-CoV-2. Future work should refine the case definitions and provide training if global reporting of neurological syndromes associated with SARS-CoV-2 is to be robust.

Bifurcation analysis of critical values for wound closure outcomes in wound healing experiments

A nonlinear partial differential equation containing a nonlocal advection term and a diffusion term is analyzed to study wound closure outcomes in wound healing experiments. There is an extensive literature of similar models for wound healing experiments. In this paper we study the character of wound closure in these experiments in terms of the sensing radius of cells and the force of cell-cell adhesion. We prove a bifurcation result which differentiates uniform closure of the wound from nonuniform closure of the wound, based on a critical value [Formula: see text] of the force of cell-cell adhesion parameter [Formula: see text]. For [Formula: see text] the steady state solution [Formula: see text] of the model is stable and the wound closes uniformly. For [Formula: see text] the steady state solution [Formula: see text] of the model is unstable and the wound closes nonuniformly. We provide numerical simulations of the model to illustrate our results.

The force of cell-cell adhesion in determining the outcome in a nonlocal advection diffusion model of wound healing

A model of wound healing is presented to investigate the connection of the force of cell-cell adhesion to the sensing radius of cells in their spatial environment. The model consists of a partial differential equation with nonlocal advection and diffusion terms, describing the movement of cells in a spatial environment. The model is applied to biological wound healing experiments to understand incomplete wound closure. The analysis demonstrates that for each value of the force of adhesion parameter, there is a critical value of the sensing radius above which complete wound healing does not occur.

Modeling Vaccine Efficacy for COVID-19 Outbreak in New York City

Simple Summary

This article aims to study the COVID-19 data for New York City. We use both the daily number of second dose vaccination and the daily number of reported cases for New York City. This article provides a method to combine an epidemic model and such data. We explore the influence of vaccine efficacy on our results.

Abstract

In this article we study the efficacy of vaccination in epidemiological reconstructions of COVID-19 epidemics from reported cases data. Given an epidemiological model, we developed in previous studies a method that allowed the computation of an instantaneous transmission rate that produced an exact fit of reported cases data of the COVID-19 outbreak. In this article, we improve the method by incorporating vaccination data. More precisely, we develop a model in which vaccination is variable in its effectiveness. We develop a new technique to compute the transmission rate in this model, which produces an exact fit to reported cases data, while quantifying the efficacy of the vaccine and the daily number of vaccinated. We apply our method to the reported cases data and vaccination data of New York City.

A COVID-19 Epidemic Model Predicting the Effectiveness of Vaccination in the US

A model of a COVID-19 epidemic is used to predict the effectiveness of vaccination in the US. The model incorporates key features of COVID-19 epidemics: asymptomatic and symptomatic infectiousness, reported and unreported cases data, and social measures implemented to decrease infection transmission. The model analyzes the effectiveness of vaccination in terms of vaccination efficiency, vaccination scheduling, and relaxation of social measures that decrease disease transmission. The model demonstrates that the subsiding of the epidemic as vaccination is implemented depends critically on the scale of relaxation of social measures that reduce disease transmission.

Predicting the number of reported and unreported cases for the COVID-19 epidemics in China, South Korea, Italy, France, Germany and United Kingdom

We model the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemics in China, South Korea, Italy, France, Germany and the United Kingdom. We identify the early phase of the epidemics, when the number of cases grows exponentially, before government implementation of major control measures. We identify the next phase of the epidemics, when these social measures result in a time-dependent exponentially decreasing number of cases. We use reported case data, both asymptomatic and symptomatic, to model the transmission dynamics. We also incorporate into the transmission dynamics unreported cases. We construct our models with comprehensive consideration of the identification of model parameters. A key feature of our model is the evaluation of the timing and magnitude of implementation of major public policies restricting social movement. We project forward in time the development of the epidemics in these countries based on our model analysis.

Predicting the number of reported and unreported cases for the COVID-19 epidemics in China, South Korea, Italy, France, Germany and United Kingdom

We model the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemics in China, South Korea, Italy, France, Germany and the United Kingdom. We identify the early phase of the epidemics, when the number of cases grows exponentially, before government implementation of major control measures. We identify the next phase of the epidemics, when these social measures result in a time-dependent exponentially decreasing number of cases. We use reported case data, both asymptomatic and symptomatic, to model the transmission dynamics. We also incorporate into the transmission dynamics unreported cases. We construct our models with comprehensive consideration of the identification of model parameters. A key feature of our model is the evaluation of the timing and magnitude of implementation of major public policies restricting social movement. We project forward in time the development of the epidemics in these countries based on our model analysis.

Predicting the number of reported and unreported cases for the COVID-19 epidemics in China, South Korea, Italy, France, Germany and United Kingdom

We model the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemics in China, South Korea, Italy, France, Germany and the United Kingdom. We identify the early phase of the epidemics, when the number of cases grows exponentially, before government implementation of major control measures. We identify the next phase of the epidemics, when these social measures result in a time-dependent exponentially decreasing number of cases. We use reported case data, both asymptomatic and symptomatic, to model the transmission dynamics. We also incorporate into the transmission dynamics unreported cases. We construct our models with comprehensive consideration of the identification of model parameters. A key feature of our model is the evaluation of the timing and magnitude of implementation of major public policies restricting social movement. We project forward in time the development of the epidemics in these countries based on our model analysis.

A COVID-19 epidemic model with latency period

At the beginning of a COVID-19 infection, there is a period of time known as the exposed or latency period, before an infected person is capable of transmitting the infection to another person. We develop two differential equations models to account for this period. The first is a model that incorporates infected persons in the exposed class, before transmission is possible. The second is a model that incorporates a time delay in infected persons, before transmission is possible. We apply both models to the COVID-19 epidemic in China. We estimate the epidemiological parameters in the models, such as the transmission rate and the basic reproductive number, using data of reported cases. We thus evaluate the role of the exposed or latency period in the dynamics of a COVID-19 epidemic.

Predicting the cumulative number of cases for the COVID-19 epidemic in China from early data

We model the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in China. We use early reported case data to predict the cumulative number of reported cases to a final size. The key features of our model are the timing of implementation of major public policies restricting social movement, the identification and isolation of unreported cases, and the impact of asymptomatic infectious cases.

Predicting the cumulative number of cases for the COVID-19 epidemic in China from early data

We model the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in China. We use early reported case data to predict the cumulative number of reported cases to a final size. The key features of our model are the timing of implementation of major public policies restricting social movement, the identification and isolation of unreported cases, and the impact of asymptomatic infectious cases.

Understanding Unreported Cases in the COVID-19 Epidemic Outbreak in Wuhan, China, and the Importance of Major Public Health Interventions

We develop a mathematical model to provide epidemic predictions for the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China. We use reported case data up to 31 January 2020 from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission to parameterize the model. From the parameterized model, we identify the number of unreported cases. We then use the model to project the epidemic forward with varying levels of public health interventions. The model predictions emphasize the importance of major public health interventions in controlling COVID-19 epidemics.

Erratum: Observation of D^{0} Meson Nuclear Modifications in Au+Au Collisions at sqrt[s_{NN}]=200 GeV [Phys. Rev. Lett. 113, 142301 (2014)]

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.113.142301.

Beam Energy Dependence of Jet-Quenching Effects in Au+Au Collisions at sqrt[s_{NN}]=7.7, 11.5, 14.5, 19.6, 27, 39, and 62.4 GeV

We report measurements of the nuclear modification factor R_{CP} for charged hadrons as well as identified π^{+(-)}, K^{+(-)}, and p(p[over ¯]) for Au+Au collision energies of sqrt[s_{NN}]=7.7, 11.5, 14.5, 19.6, 27, 39, and 62.4 GeV. We observe a clear high-p_{T} net suppression in central collisions at 62.4 GeV for charged hadrons which evolves smoothly to a large net enhancement at lower energies. This trend is driven by the evolution of the pion spectra but is also very similar for the kaon spectra. While the magnitude of the proton R_{CP} at high p_{T} does depend on the collision energy, neither the proton nor the antiproton R_{CP} at high p_{T} exhibit net suppression at any energy. A study of how the binary collision-scaled high-p_{T} yield evolves with centrality reveals a nonmonotonic shape that is consistent with the idea that jet quenching is increasing faster than the combined phenomena that lead to enhancement.

Final size of a multi-group SIR epidemic model: Irreducible and non-irreducible modes of transmission

A model of an epidemic outbreak incorporating multiple subgroups of susceptible and infected individuals is investigated. The asymptotic behavior of the model is analyzed and it is proved that the infected classes all converge to 0. A computational algorithm is developed for the cumulative final size of infected individuals over the course of the epidemic. The results are applied to the SARS epidemic in Singapore in 2003, where it is shown that the two-peak evolution of the infected population can be attributed to a two-group formulation of transmission.

Beam-Energy Dependence of Directed Flow of Λ, Λ[over ¯], K^{±}, K_{s}^{0}, and ϕ in Au+Au Collisions

Rapidity-odd directed-flow measurements at midrapidity are presented for Λ, Λ[over ¯], K^{±}, K_{s}^{0}, and ϕ at sqrt[s_{NN}]=7.7, 11.5, 14.5, 19.6, 27, 39, 62.4, and 200 GeV in Au+Au collisions recorded by the Solenoidal Tracker detector at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider. These measurements greatly expand the scope of data available to constrain models with differing prescriptions for the equation of state of quantum chromodynamics. Results show good sensitivity for testing a picture where flow is assumed to be imposed before hadron formation and the observed particles are assumed to form via coalescence of constituent quarks. The pattern of departure from a coalescence-inspired sum rule can be a valuable new tool for probing the collision dynamics.

Dijet imbalance measurements in Au+Au and pp collisions at sqrt[s_{NN}]=200 GeV at STAR

We report the first dijet transverse momentum asymmetry measurements from Au+Au and pp collisions at RHIC. The two highest-energy back-to-back jets reconstructed from fragments with transverse momenta above 2  GeV/c display a significantly higher momentum imbalance in heavy-ion collisions than in the pp reference. When reexamined with correlated soft particles included, we observe that these dijets then exhibit a unique new feature-momentum balance is restored to that observed in pp for a jet resolution parameter of R=0.4, while rebalancing is not attained with a smaller value of R=0.2.

Measurement of D^{0} Azimuthal Anisotropy at Midrapidity in Au+Au Collisions at sqrt[s_{NN}]=200 GeV

We report the first measurement of the elliptic anisotropy (v_{2}) of the charm meson D^{0} at midrapidity (|y|<1) in Au+Au collisions at sqrt[s_{NN}]=200  GeV. The measurement was conducted by the STAR experiment at RHIC utilizing a new high-resolution silicon tracker. The measured D^{0} v_{2} in 0%-80% centrality Au+Au collisions can be described by a viscous hydrodynamic calculation for a transverse momentum (p_{T}) of less than 4  GeV/c. The D^{0} v_{2} as a function of transverse kinetic energy (m_{T}-m_{0}, where m_{T}=sqrt[p_{T}^{2}+m_{0}^{2}]) is consistent with that of light mesons in 10%-40% centrality Au+Au collisions. These results suggest that charm quarks have achieved local thermal equilibrium with the medium created in such collisions. Several theoretical models, with the temperature-dependent, dimensionless charm spatial diffusion coefficient (2πTD_{s}) in the range of ∼2-12, are able to simultaneously reproduce our D^{0} v_{2} result and our previously published results for the D^{0} nuclear modification factor.

Charge-Dependent Directed Flow in Cu+Au Collisions at sqrt[s_{NN}]=200 GeV

We present the first measurement of charge-dependent directed flow in Cu+Au collisions at sqrt[s_{NN}]=200  GeV. The results are presented as a function of the particle transverse momentum and pseudorapidity for different centralities. A finite difference between the directed flow of positive and negative charged particles is observed that qualitatively agrees with the expectations from the effects of the initial strong electric field between two colliding ions with different nuclear charges. The measured difference in directed flow is much smaller than that obtained from the parton-hadron-string-dynamics model, which suggests that most of the electric charges, i.e., quarks and antiquarks, have not yet been created during the lifetime of the strong electric field, which is of the order of, or less than, 1  fm/c.

Measurement of the Transverse Single-Spin Asymmetry in p^{↑}+p→W^{±}/Z^{0} at RHIC

We present the measurement of the transverse single-spin asymmetry of weak boson production in transversely polarized proton-proton collisions at sqrt[s]=500  GeV by the STAR experiment at RHIC. The measured observable is sensitive to the Sivers function, one of the transverse-momentum-dependent parton distribution functions, which is predicted to have the opposite sign in proton-proton collisions from that observed in deep inelastic lepton-proton scattering. These data provide the first experimental investigation of the nonuniversality of the Sivers function, fundamental to our understanding of QCD.

Beam Energy Dependence of the Third Harmonic of Azimuthal Correlations in Au+Au Collisions at RHIC

We present results from a harmonic decomposition of two-particle azimuthal correlations measured with the STAR detector in Au+Au collisions for energies ranging from sqrt[s_{NN}]=7.7 to 200 GeV. The third harmonic v_{3}^{2}{2}=⟨cos3(ϕ_{1}-ϕ_{2})⟩, where ϕ_{1}-ϕ_{2} is the angular difference in azimuth, is studied as a function of the pseudorapidity difference between particle pairs Δη=η_{1}-η_{2}. Nonzero v_{3}^{2}{2} is directly related to the previously observed large-Δη narrow-Δϕ ridge correlations and has been shown in models to be sensitive to the existence of a low viscosity quark gluon plasma phase. For sufficiently central collisions, v_{3}^{2}{2} persist down to an energy of 7.7 GeV, suggesting that quark gluon plasma may be created even in these low energy collisions. In peripheral collisions at these low energies, however, v_{3}^{2}{2} is consistent with zero. When scaled by the pseudorapidity density of charged-particle multiplicity per participating nucleon pair, v_{3}^{2}{2} for central collisions shows a minimum near sqrt[s_{NN}]=20  GeV.

Centrality and Transverse Momentum Dependence of Elliptic Flow of Multistrange Hadrons and ϕ Meson in Au+Au Collisions at √[sNN]=200 GeV

We present high precision measurements of elliptic flow near midrapidity (|y|<1.0) for multistrange hadrons and ϕ meson as a function of centrality and transverse momentum in Au+Au collisions at center of mass energy √[sNN]=200  GeV. We observe that the transverse momentum dependence of ϕ and Ω v2 is similar to that of π and p, respectively, which may indicate that the heavier strange quark flows as strongly as the lighter up and down quarks. This observation constitutes a clear piece of evidence for the development of partonic collectivity in heavy-ion collisions at the top RHIC energy. Number of constituent quark scaling is found to hold within statistical uncertainty for both 0%-30% and 30%-80% collision centrality. There is an indication of the breakdown of previously observed mass ordering between ϕ and proton v2 at low transverse momentum in the 0%-30% centrality range, possibly indicating late hadronic interactions affecting the proton v2.

Observation of Transverse Spin-Dependent Azimuthal Correlations of Charged Pion Pairs in p^{↑}+p at sqrt[s]=200 GeV

We report the observation of transverse polarization-dependent azimuthal correlations in charged pion pair production with the STAR experiment in p^{↑}+p collisions at RHIC. These correlations directly probe quark transversity distributions. We measure signals in excess of 5 standard deviations at high transverse momenta, at high pseudorapidities η>0.5, and for pair masses around the mass of the ρ meson. This is the first direct transversity measurement in p+p collisions.

Azimuthal Anisotropy in U+U and Au+Au Collisions at RHIC

Collisions between prolate uranium nuclei are used to study how particle production and azimuthal anisotropies depend on initial geometry in heavy-ion collisions. We report the two- and four-particle cumulants, v_{2}{2} and v_{2}{4}, for charged hadrons from U+U collisions at sqrt[s_{NN}]=193  GeV and Au+Au collisions at sqrt[s_{NN}]=200  GeV. Nearly fully overlapping collisions are selected based on the energy deposited by spectators in zero degree calorimeters (ZDCs). Within this sample, the observed dependence of v_{2}{2} on multiplicity demonstrates that ZDC information combined with multiplicity can preferentially select different overlap configurations in U+U collisions. We also show that v_{2} vs multiplicity can be better described by models, such as gluon saturation or quark participant models, that eliminate the dependence of the multiplicity on the number of binary nucleon-nucleon collisions.

Precision Measurement of the Longitudinal Double-Spin Asymmetry for Inclusive Jet Production in Polarized Proton Collisions at sqrt[s]=200 GeV

We report a new measurement of the midrapidity inclusive jet longitudinal double-spin asymmetry, A_{LL}, in polarized pp collisions at center-of-mass energy sqrt[s]=200  GeV. The STAR data place stringent constraints on polarized parton distribution functions extracted at next-to-leading order from global analyses of inclusive deep-inelastic scattering (DIS), semi-inclusive DIS, and RHIC pp data. The measured asymmetries provide evidence at the 3σ level for positive gluon polarization in the Bjorken-x region x>0.05.

Modeling contact tracing in outbreaks with application to Ebola

Contact tracing is an important control strategy for containing Ebola epidemics. From a modeling perspective, explicitly incorporating contact tracing with disease dynamics presents challenges, and population level effects of contact tracing are difficult to determine. In this work, we formulate and analyze a mechanistic SEIR type outbreak model which considers the key features of contact tracing, and we characterize the impact of contact tracing on the effective reproduction number, Re, of Ebola. In particular, we determine how relevant epidemiological properties such as incubation period, infectious period and case reporting, along with varying monitoring protocols, affect the efficacy of contact tracing. In the special cases of either perfect monitoring of traced cases or perfect reporting of all cases, we derive simple formulae for the critical proportion of contacts that need to be traced in order to bring the effective reproduction number Re below one. Also, in either case, we show that Re can be expressed completely in terms of observable reported case/tracing quantities, namely Re = k((1-q)/q)+km where k is the number of secondary traced infected contacts per primary untraced reported case, km is the number of secondary traced infected contacts per primary traced reported case and (1-q)/q is the odds that a reported case is not a traced contact. These formulae quantify contact tracing as both an intervention strategy that impacts disease spread and a probe into the current epidemic status at the population level. Data from the West Africa Ebola outbreak is utilized to form real-time estimates of Re, and inform our projections of the impact of contact tracing, and other control measures, on the epidemic trajectory.

Unexpected triggering of the dialysate blood leak detector by haemolysis

This case showed that it is possible for haemoglobin released by haemolysis in the extracorporeal circuit to pass through a high permeability (albumin retaining) dialyser membrane. In the incident described, the blood leak detector of the dialysis machine was activated before the patient became symptomatic. Haemolysis should be considered as a possible cause of blood leak alarms during dialysis with high flux membranes.

ΛΛ Correlation function in Au+Au collisions at √[S(NN)]=200 GeV

We present ΛΛ correlation measurements in heavy-ion collisions for Au+Au collisions at sqrt[s_{NN}]=200  GeV using the STAR experiment at the Relativistic Heavy-Ion Collider. The Lednický-Lyuboshitz analytical model has been used to fit the data to obtain a source size, a scattering length and an effective range. Implications of the measurement of the ΛΛ correlation function and interaction parameters for dihyperon searches are discussed.

Observation of D0 meson nuclear modifications in Au+Au collisions at sqrt[s(NN)] = 200 GeV

We report the first measurement of charmed-hadron (D(0)) production via the hadronic decay channel (D(0) → K(-) + π(+)) in Au+Au collisions at sqrt[s(NN)] = 200 GeV with the STAR experiment. The charm production cross section per nucleon-nucleon collision at midrapidity scales with the number of binary collisions, N(bin), from p+p to central Au+Au collisions. The D(0) meson yields in central Au + Au collisions are strongly suppressed compared to those in p+p scaled by N(bin), for transverse momenta p(T) > 3 GeV/c, demonstrating significant energy loss of charm quarks in the hot and dense medium. An enhancement at intermediate p(T) is also observed. Model calculations including strong charm-medium interactions and coalescence hadronization describe our measurements.