Feasibility and acceptability of remotely monitoring spirometry and pulse oximetry as part of interstitial lung disease clinical care: a single arm observational study

BACKGROUND

Remote monitoring of patient-recorded spirometry and pulse oximetry offers an alternative approach to traditional hospital-based monitoring of interstitial lung disease (ILD). Remote spirometry has been observed to reasonably reflect clinic spirometry in participants with ILD but remote monitoring has not been widely incorporated into clinical practice. We assessed the feasibility of remotely monitoring patients within a clinical ILD service.

METHODS

Prospective, single-arm, open-label observational multi-centre study (NCT04850521). Inclusion criteria included ILD diagnosis, age ≥ 18 years, FVC ≥ 50% predicted. 60 participants were asked to record a single spirometry and oximetry measurement at least once daily, monitored weekly by their local clinical team. Feasibility was defined as ≥ 68% of participants with ≥ 70% adherence to study measurements and recording measurements ≥ 3 times/week throughout.

RESULTS

A total of 60 participants were included in the analysis. 42/60 (70%) were male; mean age 67.8 years (± 11.2); 34/60 (56.7%) had idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), Median ILD-GAP score was 3 (IQR 1-4.75). Spirometry adherence was achieved for ≥ 70% of study days in 46/60 participants (77%) and pulse oximetry adherence in 50/60 participants (83%). Recording ≥ 3 times/week every week was provided for spirometry in 41/60 participants (68%) and pulse oximetry in 43/60 participants (72%). Mean difference between recent clinic and baseline home spirometry was 0.31 L (± 0.72). 85.7% (IQR 63.9-92.6%) home spirometry attempts/patient were acceptable or usable according to ERS/ATS spirometry criteria. Positive correlation was observed between ILD-GAP score and adherence to spirometry and oximetry (rho 0.24 and 0.38 respectively). Adherence of weekly monitoring by clinical teams was 80.95% (IQR 64.19-95.79). All participants who responded to an experience questionnaire (n = 33) found remote measurements easy to perform and 75% wished to continue monitoring their spirometry at the conclusion of the study.

CONCLUSION

Feasibility of remote monitoring within an ILD clinical service was demonstrated over 3 months for both daily home spirometry and pulse oximetry of patients. Remote monitoring may be more acceptable to participants who are older or have more advanced disease.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

clinicaltrials.gov NCT04850521 registered 20th April 2021.

Review of codelists used to define hypertension in electronic health records and development of a codelist for research

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Hypertension is a leading risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Electronic health records (EHRs) are routinely collected throughout a person's care, recording all aspects of health status, including current and past conditions, prescriptions and test results. EHRs can be used for epidemiological research. However, there are nuances in the way conditions are recorded using clinical coding; it is important to understand the methods which have been applied to define exposures, covariates and outcomes to enable interpretation of study findings. This study aimed to identify codelists used to define hypertension in studies that use EHRs and generate recommended codelists to support reproducibility and consistency.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Studies included populations with hypertension defined within an EHR between January 2010 and August 2023 and were systematically identified using MEDLINE and Embase. A summary of the most frequently used sources and codes is described. Due to an absence of Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine Clinical Terms (SNOMED CT) codelists in the literature, a recommended SNOMED CT codelist was developed to aid consistency and standardisation of hypertension research using EHRs.

FINDINGS

375 manuscripts met the study criteria and were eligible for inclusion, and 112 (29.9%) reported codelists. The International Classification of Diseases (ICD) was the most frequently used clinical terminology, 59 manuscripts provided ICD 9 codelists (53%) and 58 included ICD 10 codelists (52%). Informed by commonly used ICD and Read codes, usage recommendations were made. We derived SNOMED CT codelists informed by National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines for hypertension management. It is recommended that these codelists be used to identify hypertension in EHRs using SNOMED CT codes.

CONCLUSIONS

Less than one-third of hypertension studies using EHRs included their codelists. Transparent methodology for codelist creation is essential for replication and will aid interpretation of study findings. We created SNOMED CT codelists to support and standardise hypertension definitions in EHR studies.

Mortality surrogates in combined pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema

BACKGROUND

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) with coexistent emphysema, termed combined pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema (CPFE) may associate with reduced forced vital capacity (FVC) declines compared to non-CPFE IPF patients. We examined associations between mortality and functional measures of disease progression in two IPF cohorts.

METHODS

Visual emphysema presence (>0% emphysema) scored on computed tomography identified CPFE patients (CPFE/non-CPFE: derivation cohort n=317/n=183, replication cohort n=358/n=152), who were subgrouped using 10% or 15% visual emphysema thresholds, and an unsupervised machine-learning model considering emphysema and interstitial lung disease extents. Baseline characteristics, 1-year relative FVC and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (D LCO) decline (linear mixed-effects models), and their associations with mortality (multivariable Cox regression models) were compared across non-CPFE and CPFE subgroups.

RESULTS

In both IPF cohorts, CPFE patients with ≥10% emphysema had a greater smoking history and lower baseline D LCO compared to CPFE patients with <10% emphysema. Using multivariable Cox regression analyses in patients with ≥10% emphysema, 1-year D LCO decline showed stronger mortality associations than 1-year FVC decline. Results were maintained in patients suitable for therapeutic IPF trials and in subjects subgrouped by ≥15% emphysema and using unsupervised machine learning. Importantly, the unsupervised machine-learning approach identified CPFE patients in whom FVC decline did not associate strongly with mortality. In non-CPFE IPF patients, 1-year FVC declines ≥5% and ≥10% showed strong mortality associations.

CONCLUSION

When assessing disease progression in IPF, D LCO decline should be considered in patients with ≥10% emphysema and a ≥5% 1-year relative FVC decline threshold considered in non-CPFE IPF patients.

REMOTE-ILD study: Description of the protocol for a multicentre, 12-month randomised controlled trial to assess the clinical and cost-effectiveness of remote monitoring of spirometry and pulse oximetry in patients with interstitial lung disease

INTRODUCTION

Remote monitoring of home physiological measurements has been proposed as a solution to support patients with chronic diseases as well as facilitating virtual consultations and pandemic preparedness for the future. Daily home spirometry and pulse oximetry have been demonstrated to be safe and acceptable to patients with interstitial lung disease (ILD) but there is currently limited evidence to support its integration into clinical practice.

AIM

Our aim is to understand the clinical utility of frequent remote physiological measurements in ILD and the impact of integrating these into clinical practice from a patient, clinical and health economic perspective.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

132 patients with fibrotic ILD will be recruited and randomised to receive either usual care with remote digital monitoring of home spirometry and pulse oximetry or usual care alone for 12 months. All participants will complete health-related quality of life and experience questionnaires.The primary outcome compares the availability of spirometry measurements within the 2 weeks preceding planned clinic appointments. Secondary outcomes will explore other aspects of clinical and cost-effectiveness of the remote monitoring programme.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study has been approved by the Camden and Kings Cross Research Ethics Committee (22/LO/0309). All participants will provide informed consent.This study is registered with www.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov (NCT05662124).The results of the study will be submitted for presentation at regional and national conferences and submitted for peer-reviewed publication. Reports will be prepared for study participants with the support from our public involvement representatives through the charity Action for Pulmonary Fibrosis.

Mycophenolate and azathioprine efficacy in interstitial lung disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

Mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) and azathioprine (AZA) are immunomodulatory treatments in interstitial lung disease (ILD). This systematic review aimed to evaluate the efficacy of MMF or AZA on pulmonary function in ILD.

DESIGN

Population included any ILD diagnosis, intervention included MMF or AZA treatment, outcome was delta change from baseline in per cent predicted forced vital capacity (%FVC) and gas transfer (diffusion lung capacity of carbon monoxide, %DLco). The primary endpoint compared outcomes relative to placebo comparator, the secondary endpoint assessed outcomes in treated groups only.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and prospective observational studies were included. No language restrictions were applied. Retrospective studies and studies with high-dose concomitant steroids were excluded.

DATA SYNTHESIS

The systematic search was performed on 9 May. Meta-analyses according to drug and outcome were specified with random effects, I2 evaluated heterogeneity and Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation evaluated certainty of evidence. Primary endpoint analysis was restricted to RCT design, secondary endpoint included subgroup analysis according to prospective observational or RCT design.

RESULTS

A total of 2831 publications were screened, 12 were suitable for quantitative synthesis. Three MMF RCTs were included with no significant effect on the primary endpoints (%FVC 2.94, 95% CI -4.00 to 9.88, I2=79.3%; %DLco -2.03, 95% CI -4.38 to 0.32, I2=0.0%). An overall 2.03% change from baseline in %FVC (95% CI 0.65 to 3.42, I2=0.0%) was observed in MMF, and RCT subgroup summary estimated a 4.42% change from baseline in %DLCO (95% CI 2.05 to 6.79, I2=0.0%). AZA studies were limited. All estimates were considered very low certainty evidence.

CONCLUSIONS

There were limited RCTs of MMF or AZA and their benefit in ILD was of very low certainty. MMF may support preservation of pulmonary function, yet confidence in the effect was weak. To support high certainty evidence, RCTs should be designed to directly assess MMF efficacy in ILD.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42023423223.

Child and family health-related quality of life and participation outcomes and goals after acquired brain injury: a cross-sectional survey

OBJECTIVE

To explore longer-term health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and participation outcomes and goals of children and young people (CYP) with acquired brain injuries (ABI) and their families in a region of the UK and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

Cross-sectional survey of (5-18 CYP) and their parent-carers 12-43 months following ABI. Included measures of HRQoL, participation, family function and parental wellbeing and demographic and free text questions.

RESULTS

Ninety-five responses (30% response) were received. 67% of CYP were at risk of impaired HRQoL, 72% had severely impaired participation. 53% of parent-carers reported reduced HRQoL and family functioning, 37% of parent-carers screened positive for anxiety/depression. Relationships exist between CYP participation and HRQoL and parental HRQoL and family functioning. Goals were overwhelmingly activity and participation focused. Participants described the global impact of an ABI on the CYP and family as well as the additional impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on CYP and family wellbeing.

CONCLUSION

ABI significantly impacts CYP participation and both CYP and parent-carer wellbeing in the long-term, potentially further impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Rehabilitation interventions should address both participation and the psychological wellbeing of CYP with ABI and their parent-carers.

Pancreatic enzyme prescription following ivacaftor licensing: A retrospective analysis of the US and UK cystic fibrosis registries

BACKGROUND

Relieving gastrointestinal symptoms is a research priority in cystic fibrosis. Emerging evidence highlights effects of cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) modulators on gastrointestinal function, including pancreatic sufficiency. This study explores ivacaftor licensing and treatment on recorded pancreatic enzyme replacement therapy (PERT) prescription in the US and UK CF registries.

METHODS

Retrospective longitudinal registry study of recorded pancreatic PERT use between 2008 and 2017. Interrupted time series analysis in propensity-matched cohorts estimated annual change and step change according to ivacaftor eligibility before and after licensing year, 2012. Generalised estimating equations assessed adjusted risk of PERT use in individuals treated with ivacaftor after 2012 compared to untreated individuals.

RESULTS

In the US CF registry, the difference in annual change in prevalence of PERT use post-2012 between eligible cases and ineligible controls was -5.0 per 1000 people/year (95 %CI -7.6; -2.3, p = 0.001). The step change and annual change in prevalence of PERT use in eligible cases was not significantly different to controls in the UK CF registry. Relative to the relationship in 2013, ivacaftor treatment in the US CF registry was associated with a lower adjusted risk ratio of PERT use compared to untreated individuals by 2016 (0.97, 95 %CI 0.96; 0.99), which was not observed in the UK CF registry.

CONCLUSIONS

Licensing of ivacaftor was followed by a lower prevalence of PERT use in the eligible US population compared to pre-licensing period, as well as lower risk of PERT use in those who received treatment. Inconsistencies in US and UK CF registries were observed.

Systemic corticosteroids in fibrotic lung disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to assess the available evidence for corticosteroids in fibrotic interstitial lung disease (fILD) to inform the randomised embedded multifactorial adaptive platform ILD.

DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

DATA SOURCES

We searched Embase, Medline, Cochrane CENTRAL and Web of Science databases from inception to April 17 2023.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

We included studies that compared corticosteroids with standard care, placebo or no treatment in adult patients with fILD.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

We report on the change in forced vital capacity (FVC) and mortality. We used random-effects meta-analysis to estimate relative risk (RR) for dichotomous outcomes, and mean difference (MD) and standardised MDs for continuous outcomes, with 95% CIs.

RESULTS

Of the 13 229 unique citations identified, we included 10 observational studies comprising 1639 patients. Corticosteroids had an uncertain effect on mortality compared with no treatment (RR 1.03 (95% CI 0.85 to 1.25); very low certainty evidence). The effect of corticosteroids on the rate of decline in FVC (% predicted) was uncertain when compared with no treatment (MD 4.29% (95% CI -8.26% to 16.83%); very low certainty evidence). However, corticosteroids might reduce the rate of decline in FVC in patients with non-idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) fILD (MD 10.89% (95% CI 5.25% to 16.53%); low certainty evidence), while an uncertain effect was observed in patients with IPF (MD -3.80% (95% CI -8.94% to 1.34%); very low certainty evidence).

CONCLUSIONS

The current evidence on the efficacy and safety of corticosteroids in fILD is limited and of low certainty. Randomised trials are needed to address this significant research gap.

Multiorgan MRI findings after hospitalisation with COVID-19 in the UK (C-MORE): a prospective, multicentre, observational cohort study

INTRODUCTION

The multiorgan impact of moderate to severe coronavirus infections in the post-acute phase is still poorly understood. We aimed to evaluate the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities after hospitalisation with COVID-19, evaluate their determinants, and explore associations with patient-related outcome measures.

METHODS

In a prospective, UK-wide, multicentre MRI follow-up study (C-MORE), adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital following COVID-19 who were included in Tier 2 of the Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) and contemporary controls with no evidence of previous COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antibody negative) underwent multiorgan MRI (lungs, heart, brain, liver, and kidneys) with quantitative and qualitative assessment of images and clinical adjudication when relevant. Individuals with end-stage renal failure or contraindications to MRI were excluded. Participants also underwent detailed recording of symptoms, and physiological and biochemical tests. The primary outcome was the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities (two or more organs) relative to controls, with further adjustments for potential confounders. The C-MORE study is ongoing and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04510025.

FINDINGS

Of 2710 participants in Tier 2 of PHOSP-COVID, 531 were recruited across 13 UK-wide C-MORE sites. After exclusions, 259 C-MORE patients (mean age 57 years [SD 12]; 158 [61%] male and 101 [39%] female) who were discharged from hospital with PCR-confirmed or clinically diagnosed COVID-19 between March 1, 2020, and Nov 1, 2021, and 52 non-COVID-19 controls from the community (mean age 49 years [SD 14]; 30 [58%] male and 22 [42%] female) were included in the analysis. Patients were assessed at a median of 5·0 months (IQR 4·2-6·3) after hospital discharge. Compared with non-COVID-19 controls, patients were older, living with more obesity, and had more comorbidities. Multiorgan abnormalities on MRI were more frequent in patients than in controls (157 [61%] of 259 vs 14 [27%] of 52; p<0·0001) and independently associated with COVID-19 status (odds ratio [OR] 2·9 [95% CI 1·5-5·8]; padjusted=0·0023) after adjusting for relevant confounders. Compared with controls, patients were more likely to have MRI evidence of lung abnormalities (p=0·0001; parenchymal abnormalities), brain abnormalities (p<0·0001; more white matter hyperintensities and regional brain volume reduction), and kidney abnormalities (p=0·014; lower medullary T1 and loss of corticomedullary differentiation), whereas cardiac and liver MRI abnormalities were similar between patients and controls. Patients with multiorgan abnormalities were older (difference in mean age 7 years [95% CI 4-10]; mean age of 59·8 years [SD 11·7] with multiorgan abnormalities vs mean age of 52·8 years [11·9] without multiorgan abnormalities; p<0·0001), more likely to have three or more comorbidities (OR 2·47 [1·32-4·82]; padjusted=0·0059), and more likely to have a more severe acute infection (acute CRP >5mg/L, OR 3·55 [1·23-11·88]; padjusted=0·025) than those without multiorgan abnormalities. Presence of lung MRI abnormalities was associated with a two-fold higher risk of chest tightness, and multiorgan MRI abnormalities were associated with severe and very severe persistent physical and mental health impairment (PHOSP-COVID symptom clusters) after hospitalisation.

INTERPRETATION

After hospitalisation for COVID-19, people are at risk of multiorgan abnormalities in the medium term. Our findings emphasise the need for proactive multidisciplinary care pathways, with the potential for imaging to guide surveillance frequency and therapeutic stratification.

FUNDING

UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research.

Classifying the unclassifiable-a Delphi study to reach consensus on the fibrotic nature of diseases

BACKGROUND

Traditionally, clinical research has focused on individual fibrotic diseases or fibrosis in a particular organ. However, it is possible for people to have multiple fibrotic diseases. While multi-organ fibrosis may suggest shared pathogenic mechanisms, yet there is no consensus on what constitutes a fibrotic disease and therefore fibrotic multimorbidity.

AIM

A Delphi study was performed to reach consensus on which diseases may be described as fibrotic.

METHODS

Participants were asked to rate a list of diseases, sub-grouped according to eight body regions, as 'fibrotic manifestation always present', 'can develop fibrotic manifestations', 'associated with fibrotic manifestations' or 'not fibrotic nor associated'. Classifications of 'fibrotic manifestation always present' and 'can develop fibrotic manifestations' were merged and termed 'fibrotic'. Clinical consensus was defined according to the interquartile range, having met a minimum number of responses. Clinical agreement was used for classification where diseases did not meet the minimum number of responses (required for consensus measure), were only classified if there was 100% consensus on disease classification.

RESULTS

After consulting experts, searching the literature and coding dictionaries, a total of 323 non-overlapping diseases which might be considered fibrotic were identified; 92 clinical specialists responded to the first round of the survey. Over three survey rounds, 240 diseases were categorized as fibrotic via clinical consensus and 25 additional diseases through clinical agreement.

CONCLUSION

Using a robust methodology, an extensive list of diseases was classified. The findings lay the foundations for studies estimating the burden of fibrotic multimorbidity, as well as investigating shared mechanisms and therapies.

Residual Lung Abnormalities after COVID-19 Hospitalization: Interim Analysis of the UKILD Post-COVID-19 Study

Rationale: Shared symptoms and genetic architecture between coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and lung fibrosis suggest severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection may lead to progressive lung damage. Objectives: The UK Interstitial Lung Disease Consortium (UKILD) post-COVID-19 study interim analysis was planned to estimate the prevalence of residual lung abnormalities in people hospitalized with COVID-19 on the basis of risk strata. Methods: The PHOSP-COVID-19 (Post-Hospitalization COVID-19) study was used to capture routine and research follow-up within 240 days from discharge. Thoracic computed tomography linked by PHOSP-COVID-19 identifiers was scored for the percentage of residual lung abnormalities (ground-glass opacities and reticulations). Risk factors in linked computed tomography were estimated with Bayesian binomial regression, and risk strata were generated. Numbers within strata were used to estimate posthospitalization prevalence using Bayesian binomial distributions. Sensitivity analysis was restricted to participants with protocol-driven research follow-up. Measurements and Main Results: The interim cohort comprised 3,700 people. Of 209 subjects with linked computed tomography (median, 119 d; interquartile range, 83-155), 166 people (79.4%) had more than 10% involvement of residual lung abnormalities. Risk factors included abnormal chest X-ray (risk ratio [RR], 1.21; 95% credible interval [CrI], 1.05-1.40), percent predicted DlCO less than 80% (RR, 1.25; 95% CrI, 1.00-1.56), and severe admission requiring ventilation support (RR, 1.27; 95% CrI, 1.07-1.55). In the remaining 3,491 people, moderate to very high risk of residual lung abnormalities was classified at 7.8%, and posthospitalization prevalence was estimated at 8.5% (95% CrI, 7.6-9.5), rising to 11.7% (95% CrI, 10.3-13.1) in the sensitivity analysis. Conclusions: Residual lung abnormalities were estimated in up to 11% of people discharged after COVID-19-related hospitalization. Health services should monitor at-risk individuals to elucidate long-term functional implications.

A composite serum biomarker index for the diagnosis of systemic sclerosis interstitial lung disease: a multicentre, observational, cohort study

OBJECTIVE

In patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc), we investigated composite serum biomarker panels for the diagnosis and risk-stratification of SSc-associated interstitial lung disease (SSc-ILD).

METHODS

Twenty-eight biomarkers were analysed in 640 participants: 259 with SSc-ILD and 179 SSc-controls without ILD (Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study), 172 idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF)-controls (Australian IPF Registry), and 30 healthy controls. A composite index was developed from biomarkers associated with ILD in multivariable analysis derived at empirical thresholds. Performance of the index to identify ILD, and specifically SSc-ILD, and its association with lung function, radiological extent, health-related quality of life (HRQoL) were evaluated in derivation and validation cohorts. Biomarkers to distinguish SSc-ILD from IPF-controls were identified.

RESULTS

A composite biomarker index, comprising SP-D, Ca15-3 and ICAM-1, was strongly associated with SSc-ILD diagnosis, independent of age, sex, smoking and lung function (index=3: pooled adjusted OR 12.72, 95%CI 4.59-35.21, p<0.001). The composite index strengthened the performance of individual biomarkers for SSc-ILD identification. In SSc patients, a higher index was associated with worse baseline disease severity (index=3 relative to index=0: adjusted absolute change in FVC% ^- 17.84% and DLCO% ^- 20.16%, both p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

A composite serum biomarker index, comprising SP-D, Ca15-3 and ICAM-1 may improve the identification and risk-stratification of ILD in SSc patients at baseline.

Phosphodiesterase 5 inhibitor treatment and survival in interstitial lung disease pulmonary hypertension: A Bayesian retrospective observational cohort study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Pulmonary hypertension is a life-limiting complication of interstitial lung disease (ILD-PH). We investigated whether treatment with phosphodiesterase 5 inhibitors (PDE5i) in patients with ILD-PH was associated with improved survival.

METHODS

Consecutive incident patients with ILD-PH and right heart catheterisation, echocardiography and spirometry data were followed from diagnosis to death, transplantation or censoring with all follow-up and survival data modelled by Bayesian methods.

RESULTS

The diagnoses in 128 patients were idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (n = 74, 58%), hypersensitivity pneumonitis (n = 17, 13%), non-specific interstitial pneumonia (n = 12, 9%), undifferentiated ILD (n = 8, 6%) and other lung diseases (n = 17, 13%). Final outcomes were death (n = 106, 83%), transplantation (n = 9, 7%) and censoring (n = 13, 10%). Patients treated with PDE5i (n = 50, 39%) had higher mean pulmonary artery pressure (median 38 mm Hg [interquartile range, IQR: 34, 43] vs. 35 mm Hg [IQR: 31, 38], p = 0.07) and percentage predicted forced vital capacity (FVC; median 57% [IQR: 51, 73] vs. 52% [IQR: 45, 66], p=0.08) though differences did not reach significance. Patients treated with PDE5i survived longer than untreated patients (median 2.18 years [95% CI: 1.43, 3.04] vs. 0.94 years [0.69, 1.51], p = 0.003) independent of all other prognostic markers by Bayesian joint-modelling (HR 0.39, 95% CI: 0.23, 0.59, p < 0.001) and propensity-matched analyses (HR 0.38, 95% CI: 0.22, 0.58, p < 0.001). Survival difference with treatment was significantly larger if right ventricular function was normal, rather than abnormal, at presentation (+2.55 years, 95% CI: -0.03, +3.97 vs. +0.98 years, 95% CI: +0.47, +2.00, p = 0.04).

CONCLUSION

PDE5i treatment in ILD-PH should be investigated by a prospective randomized trial.

Nintedanib for non-IPF progressive pulmonary fibrosis: 12-month outcome data from a real-world multicentre observational study

Background

Nintedanib slows lung function decline for patients with non-idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis progressive pulmonary fibrosis (PPF) in clinical trials, but the real-world safety and efficacy are not known.

Methods

In this retrospective cohort study, standardised data were collected from patients in whom nintedanib was initiated for PPF between 2019 and 2020 through an early-access programme across eight centres in the United Kingdom. Rate of lung function change in the 12 months pre- and post-nintedanib initiation was the primary analysis. Symptoms, drug safety, tolerability and stratification by interstitial lung disease subtype and computed tomography pattern were secondary analyses.

Results

126 patients were included; 67 (53%) females; mean±sd age 60±13 years. At initiation of nintedanib, mean forced vital capacity (FVC) was 1.87 L (58% predicted) and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (D _LCO) was 32.7% predicted. 68% of patients were prescribed prednisolone (median dose 10 mg) and 69% were prescribed a steroid-sparing agent. In the 12 months after nintedanib initiation, lung function decline was significantly lower than in the preceding 12 months: FVC -88.8 mL versus -239.9 mL (p=0.004), and absolute decline in D _LCO -2.1% versus -6.1% (p=0.004). Response to nintedanib was consistent in sensitivity and secondary analyses. 89 (71%) out of 126 patients reported side-effects, but 86 (80%) of the surviving 108 patients were still taking nintedanib at 12 months with patients reporting a reduced perception of symptom decline. There were no serious adverse events.

Conclusion

In PPF, the real-world efficacy of nintedanib replicated that of clinical trials, significantly attenuating lung function decline. Despite the severity of disease, nintedanib was safe and well tolerated in this real-world multicentre study.

Parenchymal lung abnormalities following hospitalisation for COVID-19 and viral pneumonitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Persisting respiratory symptoms in COVID-19 survivors may be related to development of pulmonary fibrosis. We assessed the proportion of chest CT scans and pulmonary function tests consistent with parenchymal lung disease in the follow-up of people hospitalised with COVID-19 and viral pneumonitis.

METHODS

Systematic review and random effects meta-analysis of proportions using studies of adults hospitalised with SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV or influenza pneumonia and followed up within 12 months. Searches performed in MEDLINE and Embase. Primary outcomes were proportion of radiological sequelae on CT scans; restrictive impairment; impaired gas transfer. Heterogeneity was explored in meta-regression.

RESULTS

Ninety-five studies (98.9% observational) were included in qualitative synthesis, 70 were suitable for meta-analysis including 60 SARS-CoV-2 studies with a median follow-up of 3 months. In SARS-CoV-2, the overall estimated proportion of inflammatory sequelae was 50% during follow-up (0.50; 95% CI 0.41 to 0.58; I2=95%), fibrotic sequelae were estimated in 29% (0.29; 95% CI 0.22 to 0.37; I2=94.1%). Follow-up time was significantly associated with estimates of inflammatory sequelae (-0.036; 95% CI -0.068 to -0.004; p=0.029), associations with fibrotic sequelae did not reach significance (-0.021; 95% CI -0.051 to 0.009; p=0.176). Impaired gas transfer was estimated at 38% of lung function tests (0.38 95% CI 0.32 to 0.44; I2=92.1%), which was greater than restrictive impairment (0.17; 95% CI 0.13 to 0.23; I2=92.5%), neither were associated with follow-up time (p=0.207; p=0.864).

DISCUSSION

Sequelae consistent with parenchymal lung disease were observed following COVID-19 and other viral pneumonitis. Estimates should be interpreted with caution due to high heterogeneity, differences in study casemix and initial severity.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42020183139.

Delineating associations of progressive pleuroparenchymal fibroelastosis in patients with pulmonary fibrosis

Background

Computer quantification of baseline computed tomography (CT) radiologic pleuroparenchymal fibroelastosis (PPFE) associates with mortality in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). We examined mortality associations of longitudinal change in computer quantified PPFE-like lesions in IPF and fibrotic hypersensitivity pneumonitis (FHP).

Methods

Two CT scans 6–36 months apart were retrospectively examined in one IPF (n=414) and one FHP population (n=98). Annualised change in computerised upper-zone pleural surface area comprising radiologic PPFE-like lesions (Δ-PPFE) was calculated. Δ-PPFE >1.25% defined progressive PPFE above scan noise. Mixed-effects models evaluated Δ-PPFE against change in visual CT interstitial lung disease (ILD) extent and annualised forced vital capacity (FVC) decline. Multivariable models were adjusted for age, gender, smoking history, baseline emphysema presence, antifibrotic use and diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide. Mortality analyses further adjusted for baseline presence of clinically important PPFE-like lesions and ILD change.

Findings

Δ-PPFE associated weakly with ILD and FVC change. 22–26% of IPF and FHP cohorts demonstrated progressive PPFE-like lesions which independently associated with mortality in the IPF cohort (HR=1.25, 95% CI 1.16–1.34, p<0.0001) and the FHP cohort (HR=1.16, 95% CI 1.00–1.35, p=0.045).

Interpretation

Progression of PPFE-like lesions independently associates with mortality in IPF and FHP but does not associate strongly with measures of fibrosis progression.

Disease monitoring using lung function trajectory in lymphangioleiomyomatosis: assessment in two national cohorts

STUDY QUESTION

In lymphangioleiomyomatosis, airflow obstruction and impairment of gas transfer progress at variable rates and serial lung function is recommended for disease monitoring. As these measurements are variable, recognising subjects needing treatment can be difficult. We used two prospective national cohorts to study change over time and variation in FEV₁ to inform clinical decision making.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Clinical and lung function data for 141 UK and 148 American subjects were studied. Multilevel mixed effects modelling, route mean square analysis of errors and Bland-Altman analysis were used to analyse variability in lung function over time.

RESULTS

At baseline assessment, DL_CO was reduced to a greater degree than FEV₁. In untreated patients, FEV₁ and DL_CO declined at proportionately similar rates independent of initial lung function. In mechanistic target of rapamycin (mTOR) inhibitor treated patients, FEV₁ stabilised but DL_CO continued to decline. FEV₁/DL_CO per cent predicted ratio was 1.37 (0.43) at baseline and increased to 1.41 (0.50) after 42 (24) months (p=0.0002). At least five measurements were required before >70% of individuals had estimates of rate of FEV₁ loss within 50 mL/year and DL_CO loss within 0.1 mmol/min/kPa/year of the final values.

CONCLUSIONS

While FEV₁ and DL_CO fall proportionately in most, in early disease and during mTOR inhibitor treatment, DL_CO should also be monitored as it may fall independent of FEV₁. Since at least five observations over many months are required to make confident estimates of FEV₁ and DL_CO trajectories, new strategies are needed to measure disease activity and target early treatment appropriately.

Clinical characteristics with inflammation profiling of long COVID and association with 1-year recovery following hospitalisation in the UK: a prospective observational study

BACKGROUND

No effective pharmacological or non-pharmacological interventions exist for patients with long COVID. We aimed to describe recovery 1 year after hospital discharge for COVID-19, identify factors associated with patient-perceived recovery, and identify potential therapeutic targets by describing the underlying inflammatory profiles of the previously described recovery clusters at 5 months after hospital discharge.

METHODS

The Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) is a prospective, longitudinal cohort study recruiting adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital with COVID-19 across the UK. Recovery was assessed using patient-reported outcome measures, physical performance, and organ function at 5 months and 1 year after hospital discharge, and stratified by both patient-perceived recovery and recovery cluster. Hierarchical logistic regression modelling was performed for patient-perceived recovery at 1 year. Cluster analysis was done using the clustering large applications k-medoids approach using clinical outcomes at 5 months. Inflammatory protein profiling was analysed from plasma at the 5-month visit. This study is registered on the ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN10980107, and recruitment is ongoing.

FINDINGS

2320 participants discharged from hospital between March 7, 2020, and April 18, 2021, were assessed at 5 months after discharge and 807 (32·7%) participants completed both the 5-month and 1-year visits. 279 (35·6%) of these 807 patients were women and 505 (64·4%) were men, with a mean age of 58·7 (SD 12·5) years, and 224 (27·8%) had received invasive mechanical ventilation (WHO class 7-9). The proportion of patients reporting full recovery was unchanged between 5 months (501 [25·5%] of 1965) and 1 year (232 [28·9%] of 804). Factors associated with being less likely to report full recovery at 1 year were female sex (odds ratio 0·68 [95% CI 0·46-0·99]), obesity (0·50 [0·34-0·74]) and invasive mechanical ventilation (0·42 [0·23-0·76]). Cluster analysis (n=1636) corroborated the previously reported four clusters: very severe, severe, moderate with cognitive impairment, and mild, relating to the severity of physical health, mental health, and cognitive impairment at 5 months. We found increased inflammatory mediators of tissue damage and repair in both the very severe and the moderate with cognitive impairment clusters compared with the mild cluster, including IL-6 concentration, which was increased in both comparisons (n=626 participants). We found a substantial deficit in median EQ-5D-5L utility index from before COVID-19 (retrospective assessment; 0·88 [IQR 0·74-1·00]), at 5 months (0·74 [0·64-0·88]) to 1 year (0·75 [0·62-0·88]), with minimal improvements across all outcome measures at 1 year after discharge in the whole cohort and within each of the four clusters.

INTERPRETATION

The sequelae of a hospital admission with COVID-19 were substantial 1 year after discharge across a range of health domains, with the minority in our cohort feeling fully recovered. Patient-perceived health-related quality of life was reduced at 1 year compared with before hospital admission. Systematic inflammation and obesity are potential treatable traits that warrant further investigation in clinical trials.

FUNDING

UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research.

Genetic overlap between idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and COVID-19

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease potentially leading to long lasting respiratory symptoms and has resulted in over 4 million deaths worldwide. Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a chronic interstitial lung disease (ILD) characterised by an aberrant response to alveolar injury leading to progressive scarring of the lungs. Individuals with ILD are at a higher risk of death from COVID-19 [1].

Loss of Function of the Neural Cell Adhesion Molecule NrCAM Regulates Differentiation, Proliferation and Neurogenesis in Early Postnatal Hypothalamic Tanycytes

Hypothalamic tanycytes are neural stem and progenitor cells, but little is known of how they are regulated. Here we provide evidence that the cell adhesion molecule, NrCAM, regulates tanycytes in the adult niche. NrCAM is strongly expressed in adult mouse tanycytes. Immunohistochemical and in situ hybridization analysis revealed that NrCAM loss of function leads to both a reduced number of tanycytes and reduced expression of tanycyte-specific cell markers, along with a small reduction in tyrosine hydroxylase-positive arcuate neurons. Similar analyses of NrCAM mutants at E16 identify few changes in gene expression or cell composition, indicating that NrCAM regulates tanycytes, rather than early embryonic hypothalamic development. Neurosphere and organotypic assays support the idea that NrCAM governs cellular homeostasis. Single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-Seq) shows that tanycyte-specific genes, including a number that are implicated in thyroid hormone metabolism, show reduced expression in the mutant mouse. However, the mild tanycyte depletion and loss of markers observed in NrCAM-deficient mice were associated with only a subtle metabolic phenotype.

Porphyromonas pasteri and Prevotella nanceiensis in the sputum microbiota are associated with increased decline in lung function in individuals with cystic fibrosis

Although anaerobic bacteria exist in abundance in cystic fibrosis (CF) airways, their role in disease progression is poorly understood. We hypothesized that the presence and relative abundance of the most prevalent, live, anaerobic bacteria in sputum of adults with CF were associated with adverse clinical outcomes. This is the first study to prospectively investigate viable anaerobic bacteria present in the sputum microbiota and their relationship with long-term outcomes in adults with CF. We performed 16S rRNA analysis using a viability quantitative PCR technique on sputum samples obtained from a prospective cohort of 70 adults with CF and collected clinical data over an 8 year follow-up period. We examined the associations of the ten most abundant obligate anaerobic bacteria present in the sputum with annual rate of FEV₁ change. The presence of Porphyromonas pasteri and Prevotella nanceiensis were associated with a greater annual rate of FEV₁ change; −52.3 ml yr⁻¹ (95 % CI-87.7;−16.9), –67.9 ml yr⁻¹ (95 % CI-115.6;−20.1), respectively. Similarly, the relative abundance of these live organisms were associated with a greater annual rate of FEV₁ decline of −3.7 ml yr⁻¹ (95 % CI: −6.1 to −1.3, P=0.003) and −5.3 ml yr⁻¹ (95 % CI: −8.7 to −1.9, P=0.002) for each log₂ increment of abundance, respectively. The presence and relative abundance of certain anaerobes in the sputum of adults with CF are associated with a greater rate of long-term lung function decline. The pathogenicity of anaerobic bacteria in the CF airways should be confirmed with further longitudinal prospective studies with a larger cohort of participants.

Using patient experiences to evaluate care and expectations in lung cancer: analysis of the English Cancer Patient Experience Survey linked with the national cancer registry

Purpose

Identification of unmet needs in person centred and supportive care could be limited by differences in experience across specific cancer populations. Using the experiences of people with lung cancer, we assess distinctions according to demographic and clinical characteristics.

Methods

The English Cancer Patient Experience Survey was linked to the national cancer registry. The primary outcome was experience of the lung cancer pathway when assessed in multi-question models developed with item response theory. Secondary outcomes were experience by treatment received and in separate dimensions of the care pathway: up to diagnosis, treatment information, and staff support.

Results

Responses from 15,967 adults with a lung cancer diagnosis between 2009 and 2015 were included. Positive experiences were more likely to be reported by people aged between 65 and 80 (adjusted coefficient 0.08, 95%CI 0.05;0.11), those living in the most deprived areas (adjusted coefficient 0.10, 95%CI 0.05;0.14), diagnosed at lung cancer stage IIA–B (adjusted coefficient 0.09, 95%CI 0.04;0.14), and those diagnosed through inpatient elective admissions (adjusted coefficient 0.17, 95%CI 0.07;0.28). Specific experiences differed across dimensions of care and within lung cancer treatment groups.

Conclusions

Experiences differed according to gender and ethnicity, supporting previous observations in cancer. In contrast to previous studies, people with lung cancer were more likely to report positive pathway experiences at older ages, living in more deprived areas, or diagnosed after stage I, all frequently associated with worse clinical outcomes. The distinct observations in lung cancer specific analyses suggest potential unmet needs, such as in early stage disease and younger age groups.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00520-022-06863-4.

Three-Month FVC Change: A Trial Endpoint for IPF Based on Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis

Rationale Novel therapies for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) are in development, but there remains uncertainty about the optimal trial endpoint. An earlier endpoint would enable assessment of a greater number of therapies in adaptive trial designs. Objectives To determine whether short-term changes in forced vital capacity (FVC), gas transfer for carbon monoxide (DLCO) and six-minute walk distance (6MWD) could act as surrogate endpoints to accelerate early-phase trials in IPF. Methods Individual participant data (IPD) from IPF clinical trials were included in two-step random effects meta-analysis to determine whether baseline or three-month changes in FVC, DLCO, 6MWD associated with mortality or disease progression in placebo arms. Three-month and twelve-month FVC decline endpoints were compared to treatment arm data from antifibrotic studies by meta-regression. Measurements and main results IPD were available from twelve placebo cohorts totalling 1819 participants, with baseline and three-month change in all physiological variables independently associated with poorer outcomes. Treatment data were available from six cohorts with 1684 participants. For each 2.5% relative decline in FVC over three-months there was an associated 15% [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.15,95%CI 1.06;1.24,I2=59.4%] and 20% (aHR 1.20,95%CI 1.12;1.28,I2=18.0%) increased risk of mortality in untreated and treated individuals respectively. An FVC change treatment effect was observed between treatment and placebo arms at three-months (difference in FVC change of 42.9ml,95%CI 24.0;61.8;p<0.001). Conclusions IPD meta-analysis demonstrated three-month change in physiological variables, particularly FVC, were associated with mortality among individuals with IPF. FVC change over three-months may hold potential as a surrogate endpoint in IPF adaptive trials.

Magnetic resonance imaging of the gastrointestinal tract shows reduced small bowel motility and altered chyme in cystic fibrosis compared to controls

People with cystic fibrosis (CF) experience digestive symptoms but the mechanisms are incompletely understood. Here we explore causes and consequences of slower gastrointestinal transit using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Twelve people with CF and 12 healthy controls, matched for age and gender, underwent MRI scans, both fasted and after standardised meals, over 6.5 h. Fasted small bowel motility scores were lower in CF than in controls. No difference in ascending colon chyme T₁ was detected. The difference in texture between small bowel and colon contents, seen in health, was diminished in CF. The ascending colon in CF participants had an abnormal appearance compared to controls. MRI offers unique potential to evaluate gut luminal content, colonic mucosa and intestinal motor activity. These new data support the theoretical cycle of desiccation, dysmotility and delayed transit as a cause of gastrointestinal symptoms in CF.

Biomarker signatures for progressive idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

RATIONALE

Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive lung disease in which circulatory biomarkers has the potential for guiding management in clinical practice.

OBJECTIVES

We assessed the prognostic role of serum biomarkers in three independent IPF cohorts, the Australian IPF Registry (AIPFR), Trent Lung Fibrosis (TLF) and Prospective Observation of Fibrosis in the Lung Clinical Endpoints (PROFILE).

METHODS

In the AIPFR, candidate proteins were assessed by ELISA as well as in an unbiased proteomic approach. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used to restrict the selection of markers that best accounted for the progressor phenotype at one-year in AIPFR, and subsequently prospectively selected for replication in the validation TLF cohort and assessed retrospectively in PROFILE. Four significantly replicating biomarkers were aggregated into a progression index (PI) model based on tertiles of circulating concentrations.

MAIN RESULTS

One-hundred and eighty-nine participants were included in the AIPFR cohort, 205 participants from the TLF, and 122 participants from the PROFILE cohorts. Differential biomarker expression was observed by ELISA and replicated for osteopontin, matrix metallopeptidase-7, intercellular adhesion molecule-1 and periostin for those with a progressor phenotype at one-year. Proteomic data did not replicate. The PI in the AIPFR, TLF and PROFILE predicted risk of progression, mortality and progression-free survival. A statistical model incorporating PI demonstrated the capacity to distinguish disease progression at 12 months, which was increased beyond the clinical GAP model alone in all cohorts, and significantly so within incidence based TLF and PROFILE cohorts.

CONCLUSION

A panel of circulatory biomarkers can provide potentially valuable clinical assistance in the prognosis of IPF patients.

2-Alkyl-4-quinolone quorum sensing molecules are biomarkers for culture-independent Pseudomonas aeruginosa burden in adults with cystic fibrosis

Introduction. Pseudomonas aeruginosa produces quorum sensing signalling molecules including 2-alkyl-4-quinolones (AQs), which regulate virulence factor production in the cystic fibrosis (CF) airways.Hypothesis/Gap statement. Culture can lead to condition-dependent artefacts which may limit the potential insights and applications of AQs as minimally-invasive biomarkers of bacterial load.Aim. We aimed to use culture-independent methods to explore the correlations between AQ levels and live P. aeruginosa load in adults with CF.Methodology. Seventy-five sputum samples at clinical stability and 48 paired sputum samples obtained at the beginning and end of IV antibiotics for a pulmonary exacerbation in adults with CF were processed using a viable cell separation technique followed by quantitative P. aeruginosa polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). Live P. aeruginosa qPCR load was compared with the concentrations of three AQs (HHQ, NHQ and HQNO) detected in sputum, plasma and urine.Results. At clinical stability and the beginning of IV antibiotics for pulmonary exacerbation, HHQ, NHQ and HQNO measured in sputum, plasma and urine were consistently positively correlated with live P. aeruginosa qPCR load in sputum, compared to culture. Following systemic antibiotics live P. aeruginosa qPCR load decreased significantly (P<0.001) and was correlated with a reduction in plasma NHQ (plasma: r=0.463, P=0.003).Conclusion. In adults with CF, AQ concentrations correlated more strongly with live P. aeruginosa bacterial load measured by qPCR compared to traditional culture. Prospective studies are required to assess the potential of systemic AQs as biomarkers of P. aeruginosa bacterial burden.

A systematic review of blood biomarkers with individual participant data meta-analysis of matrix-metalloproteinase-7 in IPF

Background

Blood-derived biomarkers have been described extensively as potential prognostic markers in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), but studies have been limited by analyses using data-dependent thresholds, inconsistent adjustment for confounders and an array of end-points, thus often yielding ungeneralisable results. Meta-analysis of individual participant data (IPD) is a powerful tool to overcome these limitations. Through systematic review of blood-derived biomarkers, sufficient studies with measurements of matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-7 were identified to facilitate standardised analyses of the prognostic potential of this biomarker in IPF.

Methods

Electronic databases were searched on 12 November 2020 to identify prospective studies reporting outcomes in patients with untreated IPF, stratified according to at least one pre-specified biomarker, measured at either baseline, or change over 3 months. IPD were sought for studies investigating MMP-7 as a prognostic factor. The primary outcome was overall mortality according to standardised MMP-7 z-scores, with a secondary outcome of disease progression in 12 months, all adjusted for age, gender, smoking and baseline forced vital capacity.

Results

IPD was available for nine studies out of 12 identified, reporting outcomes from 1664 participants. Baseline MMP-7 levels were associated with increased mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratio 1.23, 95% CI 1.03–1.48; I²=64.3%) and disease progression (adjusted OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.11–1.46; I²=5.9%). In limited studies, 3-month change in MMP-7 was not associated with outcomes.

Conclusion

IPD meta-analysis demonstrated that greater baseline MMP-7 levels were independently associated with an increased risk of poor outcomes in patients with untreated IPF, while short-term changes did not reflect disease progression.

Robust methodology using individual participant data meta-analysis demonstrates that baseline MMP-7 levels predict overall mortality and disease progression in patients with untreated IPF independent of age, gender, smoking status and lung functionhttps://bit.ly/2WlPudQ

Systematic review and meta-analysis of anakinra, sarilumab, siltuximab and tocilizumab for COVID-19

BACKGROUND

There is accumulating evidence for an overly activated immune response in severe COVID-19, with several studies exploring the therapeutic role of immunomodulation. Through systematic review and meta-analysis, we assess the effectiveness of specific interleukin inhibitors for the treatment of COVID-19.

METHODS

Electronic databases were searched on 7 January 2021 to identify studies of immunomodulatory agents (anakinra, sarilumab, siltuximab and tocilizumab) for the treatment of COVID-19. The primary outcomes were severity on an Ordinal Scale measured at day 15 from intervention and days to hospital discharge. Key secondary endpoints included overall mortality.

RESULTS

71 studies totalling 22 058 patients were included, 6 were randomised trials. Most studies explored outcomes in patients who received tocilizumab (60/71). In prospective studies, tocilizumab was associated with improved unadjusted survival (risk ratio 0.83, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.96, I2=0.0%), but conclusive benefit was not demonstrated for other outcomes. In retrospective studies, tocilizumab was associated with less severe outcomes on an Ordinal Scale (generalised OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.64, I2=98%) and adjusted mortality risk (HR 0.52, 95% CI 0.41 to 0.66, I2=76.6%). The mean difference in duration of hospitalisation was 0.36 days (95% CI -0.07 to 0.80, I2=93.8%). There was substantial heterogeneity in retrospective studies, and estimates should be interpreted cautiously. Other immunomodulatory agents showed similar effects to tocilizumab, but insufficient data precluded meta-analysis by agent.

CONCLUSION

Tocilizumab was associated with a lower relative risk of mortality in prospective studies, but effects were inconclusive for other outcomes. Current evidence for the efficacy of anakinra, siltuximab or sarilumab in COVID-19 is insufficient, with further studies urgently needed for conclusive findings.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42020176375.

Understanding the burden of interstitial lung disease post-COVID-19: the UK Interstitial Lung Disease-Long COVID Study (UKILD-Long COVID)

INTRODUCTION

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to over 100 million cases worldwide. The UK has had over 4 million cases, 400 000 hospital admissions and 100 000 deaths. Many patients with COVID-19 suffer long-term symptoms, predominantly breathlessness and fatigue whether hospitalised or not. Early data suggest potentially severe long-term consequence of COVID-19 is development of long COVID-19-related interstitial lung disease (LC-ILD).

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The UK Interstitial Lung Disease Consortium (UKILD) will undertake longitudinal observational studies of patients with suspected ILD following COVID-19. The primary objective is to determine ILD prevalence at 12 months following infection and whether clinically severe infection correlates with severity of ILD. Secondary objectives will determine the clinical, genetic, epigenetic and biochemical factors that determine the trajectory of recovery or progression of ILD. Data will be obtained through linkage to the Post-Hospitalisation COVID platform study and community studies. Additional substudies will conduct deep phenotyping. The Xenon MRI investigation of Alveolar dysfunction Substudy will conduct longitudinal xenon alveolar gas transfer and proton perfusion MRI. The POST COVID-19 interstitial lung DiseasE substudy will conduct clinically indicated bronchoalveolar lavage with matched whole blood sampling. Assessments include exploratory single cell RNA and lung microbiomics analysis, gene expression and epigenetic assessment.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

All contributing studies have been granted appropriate ethical approvals. Results from this study will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals.

CONCLUSION

This study will ensure the extent and consequences of LC-ILD are established and enable strategies to mitigate progression of LC-ILD.

Mortality in combined pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema patients is determined by the sum of pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema

Emphysema is one of the most common pulmonary comorbidities of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), presenting in about one-third of IPF patients [1]. The term combined pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema (CPFE) has been used to describe a potential phenotype characterised by the coexistence of upper lobe-predominant emphysema, lower lobe-predominant fibrosis and relative preservation of lung volumes (forced vital capacity; FVC) in the context of a disproportionately reduced gas transfer (diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide; D_LCO) [1–3]. With regard to patient survival, it remains unclear whether mortality in patients with CPFE reflects the cumulative effects of two disease processes (emphysema and fibrosis), or whether CPFE represents a distinct disease phenotype where outcome is worse than the sum of disease parts (emphysema and fibrosis).

In patients with combined pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema, emphysema and fibrosis do not have a synergistic effect that results in worsened survival when compared to IPF patients without emphysemahttps://bit.ly/35EJMo6

Pleuroparenchymal fibroelastosis in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: Survival analysis using visual and computer-based computed tomography assessment

BACKGROUND

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and pleuroparenchymal fibroelastosis (PPFE) are known to have poor outcomes but detailed examinations of prognostic significance of an association between these morphologic processes are lacking.

METHODS

Retrospective observational study of independent derivation and validation cohorts of IPF populations. Upper-lobe PPFE extent was scored visually (vPPFE) as categories of absent, moderate, marked. Computerised upper-zone PPFE extent (cPPFE) was examined continuously and using a threshold of 2·5% pleural surface area. vPPFE and cPPFE were evaluated against 1-year FVC decline (estimated using mixed-effects models) and mortality. Multivariable models were adjusted for age, gender, smoking history, antifibrotic treatment and diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide.

FINDINGS

PPFE prevalence was 49% (derivation cohort, n = 142) and 72% (validation cohort, n = 145). vPPFE marginally contributed 3-14% to variance in interstitial lung disease (ILD) severity across both cohorts.In multivariable models, marked vPPFE was independently associated with 1-year FVC decline (derivation: regression coefficient 18·3, 95 CI 8·47-28·2%; validation: 7·51, 1·85-13·2%) and mortality (derivation: hazard ratio [HR] 7·70, 95% CI 3·50-16·9; validation: HR 3·01, 1·33-6·81). Similarly, continuous and dichotomised cPPFE were associated with 1-year FVC decline and mortality (cPPFE ≥ 2·5% derivation: HR 5·26, 3·00-9·22; validation: HR 2·06, 1·28-3·31). Individuals with cPPFE ≥ 2·5% or marked vPPFE had the lowest median survival, the cPPFE threshold demonstrated greater discrimination of poor outcomes at two and three years than marked vPPFE.

INTERPRETATION

PPFE quantification supports distinction of IPF patients with a worse outcome independent of established ILD severity measures. This has the potential to improve prognostic management and elucidate separate pathways of disease progression.

FUNDING

This research was funded in whole or in part by the Wellcome Trust [209,553/Z/17/Z] and the NIHR UCLH Biomedical Research Centre, UK.

Outcomes for children with acquired brain injury (ABI) admitted to acute neurorehabilitation

AIM

To evaluate an innovative paediatric neurorehabilitation model in relation to improving quality of neurorehabilitation and reducing length of stay (LOS) for children with acquired brain injury.

METHOD

A process evaluation approach was conducted in line with Medical Research Council evaluation of complex interventions guidance. Analysis was conducted on routinely collected patient data from 2017 to 2018, including LOS and family feedback. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used for quantitative analysis and qualitative data was analysed thematically.

RESULTS

Outcomes for 70 children (0-16y, median age 5y, IQR 1-11y, 46 males, 24 females) referred to the service indicated improved function and reduced complexity of need. The mean LOS was 10.6 days compared to baseline mean LOS of 41 days (2011-2012). High satisfaction from the families was recorded; however, ongoing needs and service gaps regarding long-term support were identified.

INTERPRETATION

This service model is effective in delivering quality paediatric neurorehabilitation, demonstrating a sustained impact on LOS, and positive patient outcome data and family feedback for this group of patients. What this paper adds Investment in early intensive neurorehabilitation and supported discharge impacts length of stay (LOS) for children with acquired brain injury. Early intensive neurorehabilitation and supported discharge is effective. This is demonstrated by a sustained reduction in LOS, positive patient outcomes, and family feedback.

A low exhaled nitric oxide level excludes a short-term benefit from inhaled corticosteroids in suspected asthma: A randomized placebo-controlled trial

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) is a non-invasive biomarker that reflects IL-4/IL-13 production and therefore represents T2 allergic inflammation. FeNO has previously been used to guide inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) treatment in asthma. The purpose of this study was to determine if a low FeNO (≤27 ppb) could be used to reliably identify patients with symptoms suggestive of asthma who would not benefit from initiating treatment with an ICS.

METHODS

A total of 180 steroid-naïve adults with healthcare professional suspected asthma and an FeNO of ≤27 ppb were randomized to receive either 400 mcg of budesonide or placebo daily for 3 months. The primary outcome was the difference in the Asthma Control Questionnaire 7 (ACQ7) between treatment groups and the study was powered to determine equivalence. Secondary outcomes were the difference in FEV₁ , Medical Research Council and Leicester Cough Questionnaire scores.

RESULTS

One hundred and thirty-four patients (68 budesonide and 66 placebo) completed the study and were included in the analysis. The between-group mean difference in ACQ7 from baseline to the end of the study was -0.25 and the 95% CI around this difference was -0.004 to 0.495 confirming equivalence (p < 0.05). Differences in forced expiratory volume over 1 s and other secondary outcomes were also small and clinically unimportant.

CONCLUSION

The results of this study suggest that steroid-naïve patients with symptoms suggestive of asthma and an FeNO ≤ 27 ppb are unlikely to benefit from initiating treatment with an ICS over 3 months. However, further research is recommended to confirm these findings before withholding ICS treatment.

Outcome of Hospitalization for COVID-19 in Patients with Interstitial Lung Disease. An International Multicenter Study

Rationale: The impact of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on patients with interstitial lung disease (ILD) has not been established.Objectives: To assess outcomes in patients with ILD hospitalized for COVID-19 versus those without ILD in a contemporaneous age-, sex-, and comorbidity-matched population.Methods: An international multicenter audit of patients with a prior diagnosis of ILD admitted to the hospital with COVID-19 between March 1 and May 1, 2020, was undertaken and compared with patients without ILD, obtained from the ISARIC4C (International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium) cohort, admitted with COVID-19 over the same period. The primary outcome was survival. Secondary analysis distinguished idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis from non-idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis ILD and used lung function to determine the greatest risks of death.Measurements and Main Results: Data from 349 patients with ILD across Europe were included, of whom 161 were admitted to the hospital with laboratory or clinical evidence of COVID-19 and eligible for propensity score matching. Overall mortality was 49% (79/161) in patients with ILD with COVID-19. After matching, patients with ILD with COVID-19 had significantly poorer survival (hazard ratio [HR], 1.60; confidence interval, 1.17-2.18; P = 0.003) than age-, sex-, and comorbidity-matched controls without ILD. Patients with an FVC of <80% had an increased risk of death versus patients with FVC ≥80% (HR, 1.72; 1.05-2.83). Furthermore, obese patients with ILD had an elevated risk of death (HR, 2.27; 1.39-3.71).Conclusions: Patients with ILD are at increased risk of death from COVID-19, particularly those with poor lung function and obesity. Stringent precautions should be taken to avoid COVID-19 in patients with ILD.

Do working practices of cancer nurse specialists improve clinical outcomes? Retrospective cohort analysis from the English National Lung Cancer Audit

BACKGROUND

Cancer nurse specialists are advanced practitioners who offer continuity of care and expert support for people diagnosed with specific cancers. Health Education England's Cancer Workforce Plan prioritises expansion of cancer nurse specialist numbers by 2021 as part of the Cancer Taskforce Strategy for England.

OBJECTIVE

To assess whether working practices of advanced practice specialist nurses are associated with clinical outcomes for people with lung cancer.

METHODS

Adults with non-small cell lung cancer followed from 30 days post-diagnosis in English secondary care were obtained from the English National Lung Cancer Audit, 2007 to 2011. A national survey of lung cancer nurse specialists provided information on self-reported working practices. Mortality and unplanned admissions from 30 days to 12 months post diagnosis were respectively analysed using Cox and Poisson regression. Outcomes were assessed according to patients' receipt of initial assessments by a lung cancer nurse specialist and according to trust-level reported working practices. Regression models were adjusted for individual sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, error adjusted for intracorrelations within regional cancer networks, and presented separately according to patients' treatment pathways (surgery, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, or no anti-cancer therapy).

RESULTS

Data for 108,115 people with lung cancer were analysed and associations with mortality and unplanned admissions were infrequent. Among people receiving only radiotherapy, however, the hazard for death was 17% lower among those who received an assessment by a lung cancer nurse specialist, compared with no assessment (hazard ratio = 0.83, 95% confidence interval 0.73-0.94; p = 0.003). The hazard was also lower among those receiving surgery (hazard ratio = 0.91, 0.84-0.99; p = 0.028). Among those receiving radiotherapy, nurse specialists' reported confidence within multidisciplinary team settings was associated with a lower risk of death (hazard ratio = 0.88, 0.78-1.00; p = 0.049) and a lower rate of unplanned cancer-related admissions (incidence rate ratio = 0.83, 0.73-0.95; p = 0.007). Lung cancer nurse specialist assessments before/at diagnosis, were associated with a 5% lower rate of unplanned admissions, compared to when assessments occurred after diagnosis.

CONCLUSION

The contribution of nurse specialist working practices was occasionally associated with better outcomes for people with lung cancer. These were not limited to a single treatment pathway, but do indicate discrete relationships within pathways. Our study provides initial measures of overall lung cancer nurse specialist working practices at trusts, however, more detailed studies with longitudinal measurement of lung cancer nurse specialist-patient interaction are needed to better ascertain impacts on long-term patient outcomes. The findings highlight opportunities for potential improvement in effectiveness of service and care management.

Clinical significance of Pseudomonas aeruginosa 2-alkyl-4-quinolone quorum-sensing signal molecules for long-term outcomes in adults with cystic fibrosis

Introduction. Pseudomonas aeruginosa is an important respiratory pathogen in cystic fibrosis (CF), which is associated with an accelerated decline in lung function, frequent pulmonary exacerbations and increased mortality. P. aeruginosa produces intercellular signalling molecules including 2-alkyl-4-quinolones (AQs), which regulate virulence-factor production and biofilm formation in the CF airways. Studies have shown that AQs are detectable in the sputum and plasma of adults with CF and chronic pulmonary P. aeruginosa.Aim. We tested the hypothesis that the presence of six AQs in plasma or sputum obtained from adults with CF was associated with long-term adverse clinical outcomes.Methodology. We analysed clinical data over an 8 year follow period for 90 people with CF who had previously provided samples for AQ analysis at clinical stability. The primary outcome was all cause mortality or lung transplantation. Secondary outcomes were the rate of lung-function decline and the number of intravenous (IV) antibiotic days for pulmonary exacerbations.Results. There was no statistical association between the presence of any of the six measured AQs and the primary outcomes or the secondary outcome of decline in lung function. One of the six AQs was associated with IV antibiotic usage. The presence of 2-nonyl-3-hydroxy-4(1 h)-quinolone (C9-PQS) in sputum was associated with an increase in the number of IV antibiotic days in the follow-up period (Mann-Whitney; P=0.011).Conclusion. Further investigation to confirm the hypothesis that C9-PQS may be associated with increased antibiotic usage for pulmonary exacerbations is warranted as AQ-dependent signalling is a potential future target for anti-virulence therapies.

The Its Not JUST Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis Study (INJUSTIS): description of the protocol for a multicentre prospective observational cohort study identifying biomarkers of progressive fibrotic lung disease

Introduction

The Its Not JUST Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis Study (INJUSTIS) is a multicentre, prospective, observational cohort study. The aims of this study are to identify genetic, serum and other biomarkers that may identify specific molecular mechanisms, reflecting disease endotypes that are shared among patients with progressive pulmonary fibrosis regardless of aetiology. Furthermore, it is anticipated that these biomarkers will help predict fibrotic activity that may identify patterns of disease behaviour with greater accuracy than current clinical phenotyping.

Methods and analysis

200 participants with the multidisciplinary team confirmed fibrotic lung disease (50 each of rheumatoid-interstitial lung disease (ILD), asbestosis, chronic hypersensitivity pneumonitis and unclassifiable ILD) and 50 idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis participants, recruited as positive controls, will be followed up for 2 years. Participants will have blood samples, lung function tests, quality of life questionnaires and a subgroup will be offered bronchoscopy. Participants will also be given the option of undertaking blinded home handheld spirometry for the first 3 months of the study. The primary end point will be identification of a biomarker that predicts disease progression, defined as 10% relative change in forced vital capacity (FVC) or death at 12 months.

Ethics and dissemination

The trial has received ethical approval from the National Research Ethics Committee Nottingham (18/EM/0139). All participants must provide written informed consent. The trial will be overseen by the INJUSTIS steering group that will include a patient representative, and an independent chairperson. The results from this study will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals and disseminated at regional and national conferences.

Trial registration number

NCT03670576.

Patient-reported distress can aid clinical decision-making in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: analysis of the PROFILE cohort

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis is a progressive and fatal interstitial lung disease. We aimed to determine if patient response to a palliative assessment survey could predict disease progression or death.We undertook a cross-sectional study in a UK clinical cohort of incident cases. Rasch-based methodology provided a disease distress value from an abridged 11-item model of the original 45-item survey. Distress values were compared with measures of lung function. Disease progression or mortality alone was predicted at 12 months from survey completion, with risk of death assessed at 3, 6 and 12 months.Disease distress values were negatively correlated with lung function (r=-0.275 for the percentage predicted diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide). Expected survey scores computed from distress values could distinguish disease progression (n=8.8, p=0.004) and death (n=10.2, p=0.002) from no disease progression (n=6.9). Actual survey scores predicted disease progression and death with an area under the curve of 0.60 and 0.64, respectively. Each point increment in actual score increased risk of 12-month mortality by 10%; almost 43% of people scoring above 18 did not survive beyond 105 days.We define a short questionnaire that can score disease distress and predict prognosis, thus assisting clinical decision-making in progressive fibrosis.

Committing to quantum resistance: a slow defence for Bitcoin against a fast quantum computing attack

Quantum computers are expected to have a dramatic impact on numerous fields due to their anticipated ability to solve classes of mathematical problems much more efficiently than their classical counterparts. This particularly applies to domains involving integer factorization and discrete logarithms, such as public key cryptography. In this paper, we consider the threats a quantum-capable adversary could impose on Bitcoin, which currently uses the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) to sign transactions. We then propose a simple but slow commit-delay-reveal protocol, which allows users to securely move their funds from old (non-quantum-resistant) outputs to those adhering to a quantum-resistant digital signature scheme. The transition protocol functions even if ECDSA has already been compromised. While our scheme requires modifications to the Bitcoin protocol, these can be implemented as a soft fork.