Prevention of ischemic events in patients with peripheral arterial disease design, baseline characteristics and 2-year results an observational study

AIM

Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is associated with frequent cardiovascular ischemic events. We followed the survival of PAD patients and tested whether PAD remains an adverse prognostic indicator in spite of treatment according to the current European guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention.

METHODS

Eight hundred eleven patients with PAD and 778 control subjects, aged 65 (SD 9) years at inclusion, with a male/female ratio of 3/2 were treated according to the European guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention and evaluated yearly for occurrence of death, non-fatal acute coronary syndrome, stroke or critical limb ischemia (major events) and revascularization procedures (minor events). At baseline, classical risk factors were significantly more prevalent in the PAD group and protective cardiovascular medication was prescribed to patients with PAD more frequently than to control subjects.

RESULTS

In the PAD group, the 2-year Kaplan-Meier survival estimate was 96.7% (CI 95.4-97.9) vs. 98.2% (CI 97.2-99.1) in the control group, P=0.059. The groups differed in the 2-year major event-free survival: 93.5% (CI 92.7-95.3) in PAD vs. 97.1% (CI 95.9-98.4) in controls, P<0.017, as well as in event-free survival: 79.9% (CI 77.1-82.9) in PAD vs.96.4% (CI 95.0-97.9) in controls, P<0.001.

CONCLUSION

Patients with PAD had a borderline higher risk of all-cause death and a significantly higher risk of major and minor non-fatal cardiovascular events compared to control subjects. However, treatment according to the European guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention resulted in encouragingly low absolute mortality and morbidity. (ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT00761969.).

Alcohol, tobacco and breast cancer--collaborative reanalysis of individual data from 53 epidemiological studies, including 58,515 women with breast cancer and 95,067 women without the disease

Alcohol and tobacco consumption are closely correlated and published results on their association with breast cancer have not always allowed adequately for confounding between these exposures. Over 80% of the relevant information worldwide on alcohol and tobacco consumption and breast cancer were collated, checked and analysed centrally. Analyses included 58,515 women with invasive breast cancer and 95,067 controls from 53 studies. Relative risks of breast cancer were estimated, after stratifying by study, age, parity and, where appropriate, women's age when their first child was born and consumption of alcohol and tobacco. The average consumption of alcohol reported by controls from developed countries was 6.0 g per day, i.e. about half a unit/drink of alcohol per day, and was greater in ever-smokers than never-smokers, (8.4 g per day and 5.0 g per day, respectively). Compared with women who reported drinking no alcohol, the relative risk of breast cancer was 1.32 (1.19-1.45, P<0.00001) for an intake of 35-44 g per day alcohol, and 1.46 (1.33-1.61, P<0.00001) for >/=45 g per day alcohol. The relative risk of breast cancer increased by 7.1% (95% CI 5.5-8.7%; P<0.00001) for each additional 10 g per day intake of alcohol, i.e. for each extra unit or drink of alcohol consumed on a daily basis. This increase was the same in ever-smokers and never-smokers (7.1% per 10 g per day, P<0.00001, in each group). By contrast, the relationship between smoking and breast cancer was substantially confounded by the effect of alcohol. When analyses were restricted to 22 255 women with breast cancer and 40 832 controls who reported drinking no alcohol, smoking was not associated with breast cancer (compared to never-smokers, relative risk for ever-smokers=1.03, 95% CI 0.98-1.07, and for current smokers=0.99, 0.92-1.05). The results for alcohol and for tobacco did not vary substantially across studies, study designs, or according to 15 personal characteristics of the women; nor were the findings materially confounded by any of these factors. If the observed relationship for alcohol is causal, these results suggest that about 4% of the breast cancers in developed countries are attributable to alcohol. In developing countries, where alcohol consumption among controls averaged only 0.4 g per day, alcohol would have a negligible effect on the incidence of breast cancer. In conclusion, smoking has little or no independent effect on the risk of developing breast cancer; the effect of alcohol on breast cancer needs to be interpreted in the context of its beneficial effects, in moderation, on cardiovascular disease and its harmful effects on cirrhosis and cancers of the mouth, larynx, oesophagus and liver.

Supporting discovery in medicine by association rule mining in Medline and UMLS

The paper presents an interactive discovery support system for the field of medicine. The intended users of the system are medical researchers. The goal of the system is: for a given starting concept of interest, discover new, potentially meaningful relations with other concepts that have not been published in the medical literature before. The known relations between the medical concepts come from the Medline bibliographic database and the UMLS. We use association rules for discovering the relationship between medical concepts. We evaluated the system by testing how successfully it predicted future discoveries (new relations between concepts). We first divided the Medline database into two segments (older and newer) using the publication date. Then we calculated how many of the new relations found by the system in the older segment become known relations in the newer segment. We found out with statistical significance that the system predicts new relations better then someone predicting randomly. The evaluation showed that our approach for supporting discovery in medicine is successful, but also that some improvements are needed, especially on limiting the number of potential discoveries the system generates.

Accuracy of point predictions in survival analysis

Survival time prediction is important in many applications, particularly for patients diagnosed with terminal diseases. A measure of prediction error taken from the medical literature is advocated as a practicable method of quantifying reliability of point predictions. Optimum predictions are derived for familiar survival models and the accuracy of these predictions is investigated. We argue that poor predictive capability is inherent to standard survival models with realistic parameter values. A lung cancer example is used to illustrate difficulties in prediction in practice.

The assessment of contact stress in the hip joint after operative treatment for severe slipped capital femoral epiphysis

We determined contact stress on the articular surface of the hip joint in a group of patients who underwent operative treatment for severe slipped capital femoral epiphysis. Two different procedures were considered: the modified osteotomy of Dunn-Fish and the osteotomy of Imhäuser. In order to determine the stress distribution, a three-dimensional mathematical model was used taking into account the geometrical parameters of the pelvis and hip, which were measured from standard antero-posterior radiographs. We found that the Dunn-Fish procedure produced lower peak stress than the Imhäuser procedure.

Seasonal variation of some metabolic and haemostatic risk factors in subjects with and without coronary artery disease

Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is more frequent in winter months than in summer months. The aetiologic mechanisms underlying this seasonal pattern are poorly understood. We investigate whether seasonal variation of metabolic and haemostatic coronary risk factors exists, and whether this variation is more pronounced in subjects with coronary artery disease (CAD). In 82 subjects (47 free of clinical signs of CAD and in 35 survivors of AMI), measurements of body mass index (BMI), lipoproteins, glucose, insulin, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1, tissue-type plasminogen activator (t-PA), euglobulin clot lysis time, fibrinogen, and platelet count were performed twice in the cold months (December and March) and twice in the warm months (June and September). Significantly higher BMI (26.8 versus 26.2 kg/m2, P < 0.01), glucose (5.5 versus 5.1 mmol/l, P < 0.01), total cholesterol (5.61 versus 5.32 mmol/l, P < 0.05), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (3.63 versus 3.34 mmol/l, P < 0.05), triglycerides (1.79 versus 1.61 mmol/l, P < 0.01), Lp(a) (270.7 versus 237.5 mg/l, P < 0.01), fibrinogen level (3.50 versus 2.95 g/l, P < 0.00001), platelet count (212 x 10(9) versus 173 x 10(9)/l, P < 0.01) and significantly lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level (1.22 versus 1.28 mmol/l, P < 0.05) were observed in the cold months compared with the warm months. Significant seasonal variation of t-PA activity (1.19 versus 0.87 IU/ml, P = 0.015) and t-PA antigen (8.5 versus 7.3 ng/ml, P = 0.05) was demonstrated only in subjects with CAD. Clustering of peak values of several metabolic and haemostatic coronary risk factors was observed in winter months. This variation might be of aetiopathogenetic importance for the seasonal pattern of acute myocardial infarction.

BJ: an S-Plus program to fit linear regression models to censored data using the Buckley-James method

Most researchers are familiar with ordinary multiple regression models, most commonly fitted using the method of least squares. The method of Buckley and James (J. Buckley, I. James, Linear regression with censored data, Biometrika 66 (1979) 429-436.) is an extension of least squares for fitting multiple regression models when the response variable is right-censored as in the analysis of survival time data. The Buckley-James method has been shown to have good statistical properties under usual regularity conditions (T.L. Lai, Z. Ying, Large sample theory of a modified Buckley-James estimator for regression analysis with censored data, Ann. Stat. 19 (1991) 1370-1402.). Nevertheless, even after 20 years of its existence, it is almost never used in practice. We believe that this is mainly due to lack of software and we describe here an S-Plus program that through its inclusion in a public domain function library fully exploits the power of the S-Plus programming environment. This environment provides multiple facilities for model specification, diagnostics, statistical inference, and graphical depiction of the model fit.

Mild hyperhomocysteinemia and fibrinolytic factors in patients with history of venous thromboembolism

Mild hyperhomocysteinemia is recognized as a risk factor for venous thromboembolism (VTE), though its role in the thrombogenic processes is not understood. Its possible association with impaired fibrinolysis was investigated in 157 patients (61 women, 96 men) below the age of 60 years (43+/-11, mean+/-SD) with a history of objectively confirmed VTE. Patients had significantly higher fasting total plasma homocysteine (tHcy) levels than 138 apparently healthy subjects (8.0, 6.6-9.9 micromol/L vs. 7.2, 5.9-8.6 micromol/L, P=0. 001; median, range between first and third quartile). In 17 of 157 patients (12%) hyperhomocysteinemia (tHcy>11.4 micromol/L for women and tHcy>12.6 micromol/L for men) was established. The adjusted odds ratio as an estimate of relative risk for VTE was 2.3 (0.8-7.0; 95% confidence interval). When patients with hyperhomocysteinemia were compared to patients without hyperhomocysteinemia, no significant differences in t-PA (antigen 9.2+/-5.5 microg/L and 9.7+/-4.7 microg/L, respectively; activity 1.3+/-0.5 IU/mL and 1.3+/-0.7 IU/mL, respectively) and PAI-1 (antigen 19.3+/-17.5 microg/L and 22.6+/-20. 4 microg/L, respectively; activity 15.0+/-12.6 and 15.8+/-13.3 IU/mL, respectively) were observed. In conclusion, this study showed an association between mild hyperhomocysteinemia and VTE, but provided no evidence for an independent association between hyperhomocysteinemia and alterations in fibrinolytic proteins.

The 4G/5G sequence polymorphism in the promoter of plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1) gene: relationship to plasma PAI-1 level in venous thromboembolism

Impaired fibrinolysis due to increased plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1) is observed in up to 40% of patients with venous thromboembolism and might be causally related to the disease. There is evidence that genetic variations in the promoter of the PAI-1 gene and metabolic factors contribute to increased plasma PAI-1 levels. A single nucleotide insertion/deletion (4G/5G) polymorphism in the promoter region of the PAI-1 gene and metabolic factors were studied in 158 unrelated patients below the age of 61 years (43 +/- 11 years, mean +/- standard deviation) with history of objectively confirmed venous thromboembolism and in 145 apparently healthy controls. Patients had on average two times higher PAI activity (11.9 vs. 6.1 IU/ml) and by 40% higher PAI-1 antigen (14.8 vs. 10.7 ng/ml) than healthy controls, and also higher body mass index, lipid levels, fasting glucose and insulin. Patients differed significantly from healthy controls neither in the frequency of the 4G and 5G alleles (0.57/0.43 in patients and 0.52/0.48 in controls) nor in the distribution of the 4G/5G genotypes. Possession of the 4G/4G or the 4G/5G genotype did not increase relative risk for venous thromboembolic disease and the distribution of the 4G/5G genotypes was neither associated with recurrent nor with spontaneous disease. In patients association between the 4G/5G genotypes and PAI activity (adjusted for body mass index, triglyceride and glucose level) was observed, with the highest PAI activity values in the 4G/4G genotype (14.6 IU/ml), intermediate in the 4G/5G genotype (13.3 IU/ml) and the lowest in the 5G/5G genotype (5.2 IU/ml, all values means). Association between PAI activity and triglyceride level was the strongest in the 4G/4G genotype (correlation coefficient r = 0.47, p < 0.01) and the weakest in the 5G/5G genotype (r = -0.04, not significant). In conclusion, the present case-control study shows an association between the 4G/5G polymorphism in the promoter of the PAI-1 gene and plasma PAI-1 levels in patients with venous thromboembolism. Similar distribution of the 4G/5G genotypes in patients and healthy controls suggests that this genetic variation by itself is not a major risk factor for venous thromboembolism.

Immunological differentiation between tickborne encephalitis with and without concomitant neuroborreliosis

Cerebrospinal fluid lymphocyte subsets in patients with tickborne encephalitis (TBE) and in patients with TBE with concomitant neuroborreliosis (double infection) were analysed by flow cytometry. In the TBE group, higher percentages of CD4+DR+ T cells (p = 0.02) and CD25+ T cells (p = 0.0002) were observed, while in the group with double infection, higher percentages of CD19+ cells (p = 0.007), CD8+DR- T cells (p = 0.04), and CD3+CD71 + T cells (p = 0.0002) were found. It was concluded that several differences in immune cell parameters are present between the two groups of patients. Three variables (CD19+ cells, CD3+CD25+ T cells, CD3+CD71+ T cells) were included in the logistic regression model for calculation of probability for double infection. Flow cytometric characterisation of lymphocyte subsets in CSF can further substantiate the diagnosis of concomitant neuroborreliosis in patients with TBE.

Explained variation in survival analysis

Several measures of explained variation have been suggested for the Cox proportional hazards regression model. We have categorized these measures into three classes which correspond to three different definitions of multiple R2 of the general linear model. In an empirical study we compared the performance of these measures and classified them by their adherence to a set of criteria which we think should be met by a measure of explained variation for survival data. We suggest that currently there is no uniformly superior measure, particularly as the concepts of either uncensored or censored populations may lead to different choices. For uncensored populations, a measure by Kent and O'Quigley and the squared rank correlation between survival time and the predictor from a Cox regression model appear recommendable choices. For the latter, censored survival times are terminated using a very recent data augmentation algorithm for multiple imputation under proportional hazards. With censored populations, Schemper's measure, V2, could be considered. We give an introductory example, discuss aspects of application and stress the desirability of routinely evaluating explained variation in studies of survival.

Breast cancer and hormonal contraceptives: further results. Collaborative Group on Hormonal Factors in Breast Cancer

The Collaborative Group on Hormonal Factors in Breast Cancer has brought together and reanalysed the worldwide epidemiological evidence on breast cancer risk and use of hormonal contraceptives. Original data from 54 studies, representing about 90% of the information available on the topic, were collected, checked and analysed centrally. The 54 studies were performed in 26 countries and include a total of 53,297 women with breast cancer and 100,239 women without breast cancer. The studies were varied in their design, setting and timing. Most information came from case-control studies with controls chosen from the general population; most women resided in Europe or North America and most cancers were diagnosed during the 1980s. Overall 41% of the women with breast cancer and 40% of the women without breast cancer had used oral contraceptives at some time; the median age at first use was 26 years, the median duration of use was 3 years, the median year of first use was 1968, the median time since first use was 16 years, and the median time since last use was 9 years. The main findings, summarised elsewhere, are that there is a small increase in the risk of having breast cancer diagnosed in current users of combined oral contraceptives and in women who had stopped use in the past 10 years but that there is no evidence of an increase in the risk more than 10 years after stopping use. In addition, the cancers diagnosed in women who had used oral contraceptives tended to be less advanced clinically than the cancers diagnosed in women who had not used them. Despite the large number of possibilities investigated, few factors appeared to modify the main findings either in recent or in past users. For recent users who began use before age 20 the relative risks are higher than for recent users who began at older ages. For women whose use of oral contraceptives ceased more than 10 years before there was some suggestion of a reduction in breast cancer risk in certain subgroups, with a deficit of tumors that had spread beyond the breast, especially among women who had used preparations containing the highest doses of oestrogen and progestogen. These findings are unexpected and need to be confirmed. Although these data represent most of the epidemiological evidence on the topic to date, there is still insufficient information to comment reliably about the effects of specific types of oestrogen or of progestogen. What evidence there is suggests, however, no major differences in the effects for specific types of oestrogen or of progestogen and that the pattern of risk associated with use of hormonal contraceptives containing progestogens alone may be similar to that observed for preparations containing both oestrogens and progestogens. On the basis of these results, there is little difference between women who have and have not used combined oral contraceptives in terms of the estimated cumulative number of breast cancers diagnosed during the period from starting use up to 20 years after stopping. The cancers diagnosed in women who have used oral contraceptives are, however, less advanced clinically than the cancers diagnosed in never users. Further research is needed to establish whether the associations described here are due to earlier diagnosis of breast cancer in women who have used oral contraceptives, to the biological effects of the hormonal contraceptives or to a combination of both. Little information is as yet available about the effects on breast cancer risk of oral contraceptive use that ceased more than 20 years before and as such data accumulate it will be necessary to re-examine the worldwide evidence.

Late sequelae in children treated for brain tumors and leukemia

Forty-two survivors treated at an age of 2-16 years for brain tumors or leukemia were, 4-21 years after treatment, subjected to an extensive follow-up investigation, including physical examination and interview; 35 of them also had endocrinological and 33 psychological evaluation. Hormonal deficiencies were found in about two-thirds of patients and were most common in those treated for brain tumors. The great majority had verbal intelligence quotient (VIQ) within normal range. Also, the performance intelligence quotients (PIQ) were normal in most patients. However, the results suggested that the primary intellectual capacity in children treated for cancer was not being fully utilized, their PIQ being on the average higher than their VIQ; this tendency was especially pronounced in the leukemia patients.