Rapid and selective screening of organic peroxide explosives using acid-hydrolysis induced chemiluminescence

Organic peroxide explosives (OPEs) are unstable, non-military, contemporary security threats often found in improvised explosive devices. Chemiluminescence (CL) can be used to detect OPEs, via radical formation consisting of peroxide moieties (-O-O-) under acidic conditions. However, selectivity for specific OPEs is hampered by the ubiquitous background of H₂O₂. Herein, we report the differentiation of hexamethylene triperoxide diamine (HMTD), triacetone triperoxide (TATP), and methyl ethyl ketone peroxide (MEKP) by specific flow injection analysis-CL (FIA-CL) signal profiles, after H₂SO₄ treatment. The radical degradation pathway of each structure, and its corresponding FIA-CL profile, was explored using mass spectrometry to reveal the rapid loss of -O-O- from TATP and HMTD structures, while MEKP formed CL signal-sustaining oligomers, as opposed to the immediate attenuation of H₂O₂. The CL response for OPEs in an aqueous media, measured via the described FIA-CL method, enabled ultra-trace limits of detection down to 0.40 μM for MEKP, 0.43 μM for HMTD, and 0.40 μM for TATP (combined linear range 1-83 μM with 95% confidence limit, n = 12). Expanded uncertainties of measurement (UM) of MEKP = ±0.98, HMTD = ±1.03, and TATP = ±1.1 (UM included probabilities of false positive and false negative as well as standard deviations of % recoveries and limit of detections of OPEs). Direct aqueous sample introduction via FIA-CL thus offers the prospect of rapid and selective screening of OPEs in security-heightened settings (e.g., airports), averting false positives from more ubiquitous H₂O₂.

Evaluation of prognostic risk models for postoperative pulmonary complications in adult patients undergoing major abdominal surgery: a systematic review and international external validation cohort study

BACKGROUND

Stratifying risk of postoperative pulmonary complications after major abdominal surgery allows clinicians to modify risk through targeted interventions and enhanced monitoring. In this study, we aimed to identify and validate prognostic models against a new consensus definition of postoperative pulmonary complications.

METHODS

We did a systematic review and international external validation cohort study. The systematic review was done in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on March 1, 2020, for articles published in English that reported on risk prediction models for postoperative pulmonary complications following abdominal surgery. External validation of existing models was done within a prospective international cohort study of adult patients (≥18 years) undergoing major abdominal surgery. Data were collected between Jan 1, 2019, and April 30, 2019, in the UK, Ireland, and Australia. Discriminative ability and prognostic accuracy summary statistics were compared between models for the 30-day postoperative pulmonary complication rate as defined by the Standardised Endpoints in Perioperative Medicine Core Outcome Measures in Perioperative and Anaesthetic Care (StEP-COMPAC). Model performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC).

FINDINGS

In total, we identified 2903 records from our literature search; of which, 2514 (86·6%) unique records were screened, 121 (4·8%) of 2514 full texts were assessed for eligibility, and 29 unique prognostic models were identified. Nine (31·0%) of 29 models had score development reported only, 19 (65·5%) had undergone internal validation, and only four (13·8%) had been externally validated. Data to validate six eligible models were collected in the international external validation cohort study. Data from 11 591 patients were available, with an overall postoperative pulmonary complication rate of 7·8% (n=903). None of the six models showed good discrimination (defined as AUROCC ≥0·70) for identifying postoperative pulmonary complications, with the Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia score showing the best discrimination (AUROCC 0·700 [95% CI 0·683-0·717]).

INTERPRETATION

In the pre-COVID-19 pandemic data, variability in the risk of pulmonary complications (StEP-COMPAC definition) following major abdominal surgery was poorly described by existing prognostication tools. To improve surgical safety during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery and beyond, novel risk stratification tools are required.

FUNDING

British Journal of Surgery Society.

Climate Change, Drought, and Potential Environmental Migration Flows Under Different Policy Scenarios

Unmitigated climate change will likely produce major problems for human populations worldwide. Although many researchers and policy-makers believe that drought may be an important “push” factor underlying migration in the future, the precise relationship between drought and migration remains unclear. This article models the potential scope of such movements for the emissions policy choices facing all nation-states today. Applying insights from climate science and computational modeling to migration research, we examine the likely surge of drought-induced migration and assess the prospects of different policy scenarios to mitigate involuntary displacement. Using an ensemble of 16 climate models in conjunction with high-resolution geospatial population data and different policy scenarios, we generate drought projections worldwide and estimate the potential for internal and international population movement due to extreme droughts through the remainder of the 21st century. Our simulations suggest that a potential for drought-induced migration increases by approximately 200 percent under the current international policy scenario (corresponding to the current Paris Agreement targets). In contrast, total migration increases by almost 500 percent, should current international cooperation fail and should unrestricted policies toward greenhouse gas emissions prevail. We argue that despite the continued growth projections of drought-induced migration in all cases, international cooperation on climate change can substantially reduce the global potential for such migration, in contrast to unilateral policy approaches to energy demands. This article highlights the importance of modeling future environmental migrations, in order to manage the pressures and unprecedented policy challenges which are expected to dramatically increase under conditions of unmitigated climate change.

Perioperative intravenous contrast administration and the incidence of acute kidney injury after major gastrointestinal surgery: prospective, multicentre cohort study

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to determine the impact of preoperative exposure to intravenous contrast for CT and the risk of developing postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery.

METHODS

This prospective, multicentre cohort study included adults undergoing gastrointestinal resection, stoma reversal or liver resection. Both elective and emergency procedures were included. Preoperative exposure to intravenous contrast was defined as exposure to contrast administered for the purposes of CT up to 7 days before surgery. The primary endpoint was the rate of AKI within 7 days. Propensity score-matched models were adjusted for patient, disease and operative variables. In a sensitivity analysis, a propensity score-matched model explored the association between preoperative exposure to contrast and AKI in the first 48 h after surgery.

RESULTS

A total of 5378 patients were included across 173 centres. Overall, 1249 patients (23·2 per cent) received intravenous contrast. The overall rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery was 13·4 per cent (718 of 5378). In the propensity score-matched model, preoperative exposure to contrast was not associated with AKI within 7 days (odds ratio (OR) 0·95, 95 per cent c.i. 0·73 to 1·21; P = 0·669). The sensitivity analysis showed no association between preoperative contrast administration and AKI within 48 h after operation (OR 1·09, 0·84 to 1·41; P = 0·498).

CONCLUSION

There was no association between preoperative intravenous contrast administered for CT up to 7 days before surgery and postoperative AKI. Risk of contrast-induced nephropathy should not be used as a reason to avoid contrast-enhanced CT.

Rapid measurement of phytosterols in fortified food using gas chromatography with flame ionization detection

A novel method for the measurement of total phytosterols in fortified food was developed and tested using gas chromatography with flame ionization detection. Unlike existing methods, this technique is capable of simultaneously extracting sterols during saponification thus significantly reducing extraction time and cost. The rapid method is suitable for sterol determination in a range of complex fortified foods including milk, cheese, fat spreads, oils and meat. The main enhancements of this new method include accuracy and precision, robustness, cost effectiveness and labour/time efficiencies. To achieve these advantages, quantification and the critical aspects of saponification were investigated and optimised. The final method demonstrated spiked recoveries in multiple matrices at 85-110% with a relative standard deviation of 1.9% and measurement uncertainty value of 10%.

Sociality as a defensive response to the threat of loss

Laboratory research studying behavior in the Prisoner's Dilemma (PD) game is consistent with the commonplace perception that social exchange is risky. Although they often do cooperate, people also often defect. Thus, the decision to enter a PD game with a stranger, about whom one has no good basis for predicting behavior, is a bet on cooperation. Many investigators have explored a range of cognitive processes and individual differences putatively bearing on the choice to enter such games, but few have asked how people perceive, assess, and respond to social risk in general. That is what we ask here. From the well known finding that people are risk-averse in the domain of gains and risk-tolerant in the domain of losses, we predict that, with game incentives constant, people will be more willing to enter social relationships when game payoffs are framed as losses than when they are framed as gains. We tested this prediction in a student population playing PD games. Results strongly supported the prediction, suggesting that human sociality may have evolved more as a defensive response to the possibility of loss than as an opportunistic attempt to capture gain.

Cognitive requirements for hawk-dove games: A functional analysis for evolutionary design

Like other social animals, humans play adaptively important games, and current evolutionary theory predicts special-purpose, domain-specific cognitive mechanisms for playing such games. We offer a functional analysis of the information requirements for successfully playing one important social game, the "hawk-dove" conflict-of-interest game, developing new graphic conventions for doing so. In particular, we address the orders of recognition necessary for successfully playing such games, showing that there are adaptive advantages of capacities for first, second, third, and fourth such orders, but no more. We suggest that first-order recognition is not only the most basic in analytic terms but is likely to have been the first to evolve, with subsequent orders added later in evolution.

The cost of misinformation in deadly conflicts: Hawk-Dove games and suicidal terrorism

The hijacking and purposeful crashing of airplanes into the World Trade Center and the Pentagon on September 11, 2001, prompts questions about why the passengers and crew of those airplanes did not act to prevent these attacks, as did at least some passengers on a hijacked flight that crashed in Pennsylvania. We argue, first, that humans have an evolved cognitive bias that leads to the expectation that antagonists hope to survive conflict and, second, that highly credible information to the contrary is needed to overcome this bias. Absent such information, the passengers on at least two airplanes incorrectly interpreted the game being played as a hawk-dove version of a conflict-of-interest game, when it was actually a "suicidal terrorism" variant of that family. Given that other terrorists may have been in the air and ready to act, the airlines' policy of not informing passengers about such events could have risked disabling them from reacting forcefully when force alone was advisable.

The robustness of cognitively simple judgment in ecologies of Prisoner's Dilemma games

Various authors have pointed to the fitness advantage from a capacity to recognize others' intentions in prisoner's dilemma games, yet cognitive mechanisms supporting such perceptiveness might be no more efficient than the simple and presumably inexpensive rule to 'assume that potential partners have the same behavioral intentions as yourself.' Laboratory findings have shown that this projecting heuristic can support the evolution of cooperative behavior absent perceptiveness, but that rule might be vulnerable to invasion by perceptive mutations. This paper shows that perceptive mutants are more likely to destroy an entire ecology of projectors (that would otherwise survive and prosper) than to successfully invade it, while projecting mutants have considerable success invading a population of perceptives. Mutant projectors' success happens when a cooperative ecology is created for them by the initial success of perceptive cooperators; within such an ecology, cooperative projectors have a competitive advantage over cooperative perceptives. Critical parameters are (1) the incidence of cooperativeness in the population and (2) the price of perceptiveness.