Previous fracture and subsequent fracture risk: a meta-analysis to update FRAX

A large international meta-analysis using primary data from 64 cohorts has quantified the increased risk of fracture associated with a previous history of fracture for future use in FRAX.

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study was to quantify the fracture risk associated with a prior fracture on an international basis and to explore the relationship of this risk with age, sex, time since baseline and bone mineral density (BMD).

METHODS

We studied 665,971 men and 1,438,535 women from 64 cohorts in 32 countries followed for a total of 19.5 million person-years. The effect of a prior history of fracture on the risk of any clinical fracture, any osteoporotic fracture, major osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture alone was examined using an extended Poisson model in each cohort. Covariates examined were age, sex, BMD, and duration of follow-up. The results of the different studies were merged by using the weighted β-coefficients.

RESULTS

A previous fracture history, compared with individuals without a prior fracture, was associated with a significantly increased risk of any clinical fracture (hazard ratio, HR = 1.88; 95% CI = 1.72-2.07). The risk ratio was similar for the outcome of osteoporotic fracture (HR = 1.87; 95% CI = 1.69-2.07), major osteoporotic fracture (HR = 1.83; 95% CI = 1.63-2.06), or for hip fracture (HR = 1.82; 95% CI = 1.62-2.06). There was no significant difference in risk ratio between men and women. Subsequent fracture risk was marginally downward adjusted when account was taken of BMD. Low BMD explained a minority of the risk for any clinical fracture (14%), osteoporotic fracture (17%), and for hip fracture (33%). The risk ratio for all fracture outcomes related to prior fracture decreased significantly with adjustment for age and time since baseline examination.

CONCLUSION

A previous history of fracture confers an increased risk of fracture of substantial importance beyond that explained by BMD. The effect is similar in men and women. Its quantitation on an international basis permits the more accurate use of this risk factor in case finding strategies.

Update of the fracture risk prediction tool FRAX: a systematic review of potential cohorts and analysis plan

We describe the collection of cohorts together with the analysis plan for an update of the fracture risk prediction tool FRAX with respect to current and novel risk factors. The resource comprises 2,138,428 participants with a follow-up of approximately 20 million person-years and 116,117 documented incident major osteoporotic fractures.

INTRODUCTION

The availability of the fracture risk assessment tool FRAX® has substantially enhanced the targeting of treatment to those at high risk of fracture with FRAX now incorporated into more than 100 clinical osteoporosis guidelines worldwide. The aim of this study is to determine whether the current algorithms can be further optimised with respect to current and novel risk factors.

METHODS

A computerised literature search was performed in PubMed from inception until May 17, 2019, to identify eligible cohorts for updating the FRAX coefficients. Additionally, we searched the abstracts of conference proceedings of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research, European Calcified Tissue Society and World Congress of Osteoporosis. Prospective cohort studies with data on baseline clinical risk factors and incident fractures were eligible.

RESULTS

Of the 836 records retrieved, 53 were selected for full-text assessment after screening on title and abstract. Twelve cohorts were deemed eligible and of these, 4 novel cohorts were identified. These cohorts, together with 60 previously identified cohorts, will provide the resource for constructing an updated version of FRAX comprising 2,138,428 participants with a follow-up of approximately 20 million person-years and 116,117 documented incident major osteoporotic fractures. For each known and candidate risk factor, multivariate hazard functions for hip fracture, major osteoporotic fracture and death will be tested using extended Poisson regression. Sex- and/or ethnicity-specific differences in the weights of the risk factors will be investigated. After meta-analyses of the cohort-specific beta coefficients for each risk factor, models comprising 10-year probability of hip and major osteoporotic fracture, with or without femoral neck bone mineral density, will be computed.

CONCLUSIONS

These assembled cohorts and described models will provide the framework for an updated FRAX tool enabling enhanced assessment of fracture risk (PROSPERO (CRD42021227266)).

Post-fracture care programs for prevention of subsequent fragility fractures: a literature assessment of current trends

Post-fracture care (PFC) programs evaluate and manage patients with a minimal trauma or fragility fracture to prevent subsequent fractures. We conducted a literature review to understand current trends in PFC publications, evaluate key characteristics of PFC programs, and assess their clinical effectiveness, geographic variations, and cost-effectiveness. We performed a search for peer-reviewed articles published between January 2003 and December 2020 listed in PubMed or Google Scholar. We categorized identified articles into 4 non-mutually exclusive PFC subtopics based on keywords and abstract content: PFC Types, PFC Effectiveness/Success, PFC Geography, and PFC Economics. The literature search identified 784 eligible articles. Most articles fit into multiple PFC subtopics (PFC Types, 597; PFC Effectiveness/Success, 579; PFC Geography, 255; and PFC Economics, 98). The number of publications describing how PFC programs can improve osteoporosis treatment rates has markedly increased since 2003; however, publication gaps remain, including low numbers of publications from some countries with reported high rates of osteoporosis and/or hip fractures. Fracture liaison services and geriatric/orthogeriatric services were the most common models of PFC programs, and both were shown to be cost-effective. We identified a need to expand and refine PFC programs and to standardize patient identification and reporting on quality improvement measures. Although there is an increasing awareness of the importance of PFC programs, publication gaps remain in most countries. Improvements in established PFC programs and implementation of new PFC programs are still needed to enhance equitable patient care to prevent occurrence of subsequent fractures.

Cost-effectiveness of romosozumab for the treatment of postmenopausal women with severe osteoporosis at high risk of fracture in Sweden

Romosozumab is a novel bone-building drug that reduces fracture risk. This health economic analysis indicates that sequential romosozumab-to-alendronate can be a cost-effective treatment option for postmenopausal women with severe osteoporosis at high risk of fracture.

PURPOSE

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of sequential treatment with romosozumab followed by alendronate ("romosozumab-to-alendronate") compared with alendronate alone in patients with severe osteoporosis at high risk of fracture in Sweden.

METHODS

A microsimulation model with a Markov structure was used to simulate fractures, costs, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), for women treated with romosozumab-to-alendronate or alendronate alone. Patients aged 74 years with a recent major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) were followed from the start of treatment until the age of 100 years or death. Treatment with romosozumab for 12 months was followed by alendronate for up to 48 months or alendronate alone with a maximum treatment duration of 60 months. The analysis had a societal perspective. Efficacy of romosozumab and alendronate were derived from phase III randomized controlled trials. Resource use and unit costs were collected from the literature. Cost-effectiveness was estimated using incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) with QALYs as effectiveness measures.

RESULTS

The base case analysis showed that sequential romosozumab-to-alendronate treatment was associated with 0.089 additional QALYs at an additional cost of €3002 compared to alendronate alone, resulting in an ICER of €33,732. At a Swedish reference willingness-to-pay per QALY of €60,000, romosozumab-to-alendronate had a 97.9% probability of being cost-effective against alendronate alone. The results were most sensitive to time horizon, persistence assumptions, patient age, and treatment efficacy.

CONCLUSION

The results of this study indicate that sequential romosozumab-to-alendronate can be a cost-effective treatment option for postmenopausal women with severe osteoporosis at high risk of fracture.

Risk of imminent fracture following a previous fracture in a Swedish database study

This study examined the imminent risk of a future fracture within 1 and 2 years following a first fracture in women aged 50 years and older and assessed independent factors associated with risk of subsequent fractures. The study highlights the need to intervene rapidly after a fracture to prevent further fractures.

INTRODUCTION

This study aims to determine the imminent risk of subsequent fractures within 1 and 2 years following a first fracture and to assess independent factors associated with subsequent fractures.

METHODS

Retrospective, observational cohort study of women aged ≥ 50 years with a fragility fracture was identified from Swedish national registers. Clinical/demographic characteristics at the time of index fracture and cumulative fracture incidences up to 12 and 24 months following index fracture were calculated. Risk factors for subsequent fracture were identified using multivariate regression analysis.

RESULTS

Two hundred forty-two thousand one hundred eight women (mean [SD] age 74 [12.5] years) were included. The cumulative subsequent fracture incidence at 12 months was 7.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 6.9-7.2) and at 24 months was 12.0% (95% CI, 11.8-12.1). The rate of subsequent fractures was highest in the first month (~ 15 fractures per 1000 patient-years) and remained steady between 4 and 24 months (~ 5 fractures/1000 patient-years). Higher age was an independent risk factor for imminent subsequent fractures (at 24 months, sub-distribution hazard ratio [HR], 3.07; p < 0.001 for women 80-89 years [reference 50-59 years]). Index vertebral fracture was a strong independent risk factor for subsequent fracture (sub-distribution HR, 2.72 versus hip fracture; p < 0.001 over 12 months; HR, 2.23; p < 0.001 over 24 months).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings highlight the need to intervene rapidly after any fragility fracture in postmenopausal women. The occurrence of a fragility fracture provides healthcare systems with a unique opportunity to intervene to reduce the increased risk of subsequent fractures.